Sunday 10/17/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes

By Dave Tuley

SUNDAY

Woodbine Race No. 10 (5:44 p.m. ET/2:44 p.m. PT)

John Lauro likes #3 Olympic Runner (6-1 morning line) in the Grade 2 Nearctic Stakes. “Olympic Runner shortens up after failing to fire in the Woodbine Mile.”

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Free Winners for Sunday, October 17th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
SANTA ANITA PARK
RACE #7
TIME: 7:08 PM EST
PICK: BET #4 North County Guy 5/2 odds to win @ Bovada

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Laurel Park 5 Facts | October 11-17, 2021

October 12, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Thursday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$8,467// Rainbow 6 Jackpot

Feature Race(s):

No stakes scheduled.

Maryland Million Day // Saturday, Oct. 23

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Win % (40%, +$6.20)

Avg. 2 of 3 Speed (36%, +$24.20)

Avg Speed Last 3 (34%, +$20.60) *top-3 second straight week*

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

J: Horacio Karamanos // last week 17: 5-2-1 (29%, $1.68 ROI) // $12, $24 top winners // 11-35 last 2 weeks

J: Jevian Toledo // last week 18: 6-1-2 (33%, $1.13 ROI) // all 6 wins $11 or less // 5: 2-1-1 with Brittany Russell

J: Xavier Perez // last week 9: 3-2-0 (33%, $8.12 ROI) // $135 bomb joined $4, $6 winners; also 48-1 runner-up

T: Ferris Allen // last week 4: 2-0-0 (50%, $2.35 ROI) // $6, $12 winners, 2-2 with Karamanos

T: Frank Russo // last week 2: 2-0-0 (100%, $7.40 ROI) // $5 and $24 winners in allowance sprints

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

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Gulfstream Park 5 Facts | October 11-17, 2021

October 12, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Thursday-Sunday (12:50 pm ET daily post)

Carryovers:

$12,156 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot ($75,000-guaranteed pool Thursday) // $461K score Oct. 9

$7,554 // Super High 5

Feature Race(s):

No stakes scheduled.

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Avg. Speed Last 3 (30%, +$7.80)

Speed Last Race (30%, +$8.20)

Jockey Meet (29%, +$49.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Antonio Sano // last week 13: 4-2-1 (31%, $3.32 ROI) // $19 and $53 upsets delivered

T: Saffie Joseph Jr. // last week 11: 3-3-1 (27%, $0.52 ROI) // wins at 4-5, 4-5, 6-5 // 13-38 over past 3 weeks

T: Mark Casse // last week 7: 3-0-0 (43%, $2.41 ROI) // $5, $13, $14 scores all on Tapeta//

J: Edwin Gonzalez // last week 10: 5-1-0 (50%, $2.34 ROI) // 3-3 with Mark Casse // 9-25 over past 2 weeks

J: Rajiv Maragh // last week 5: 4-0-0 (80%, $2.90 ROI) // $3, $4, $8, $12 winners // 4 different trainers

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

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Santa Anita 5 Facts | October 5-11, 2021

October 12, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Friday-Monday

Carryovers:

$347,528 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot

Feature Race(s):

$100,000 California Distaff // Cal-bred distaff turf sprinters // Saturday

$100,000 California Flag // Cal-bred turf sprinters // Sunday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Jockey 6 Month Win % (31%, +$12.20)

Last Finish (20%, +$12.60)

Win % (20%, +$7.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Brian Koriner // last week 9: 2-1-2 (22%, $4.54 ROI) // $30 and $51 bombs // 17-1, 19-1 ran third

T: Doug O’Neill // last week 17: 5-3-1 (29%, $0.96 ROI) // 3-4 with Mario Gutierrez // top price $11

T: Vladimir Cerin // last week 6: 2-1-1 (33%, $2.20 ROI) // 2-4 with Kent Desormeaux // two $13 winners

J: Flavien Prat // last week 15: 7-3-0 (47%, $1.79 ROI) // 2-3 with Richard Baltas, 2-4 with Peter Miler // 14-39 last 2 weeks

J: Kent Desormeaux // last week 13: 4-3-0 (31%, $1.80 ROI) // $8, $11, $13, $13 winners // 2-4 with Cerin

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

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Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks	Place A Bet
1.	NSA(The Legend)	NFL – Giants +7.5	Line @ Bovada
2.	Gameday Network	NFL – Ravens -3	Line @ Bovada
3.	Sports Action 365	NFL – Texans +10.5	Line @ GT Bets
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	NFL – Bengals -3.5	Line @ GT Bets
5.	VegasSI.com	NFL – Cardinals under 48	Line @ Bovada
6.	PointSpreadReport.com(SAM CASEY)	NFL – Raiders over 44.5	Line @ MyBookie
7.	Winning Big Sports	NFL – Steelers -5	Line @ MyBookie
8.	NSA(Gerry “Big Cat” Andino)	NFL – Patriots +3.5	Line @ Bovada
9.	Lou Panelli	NFL – Cardinals +3	Line @ Bovada
10.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	NFL – Giants +7.5	Line @ GT Bets
11.	William E. Stockton	NFL – Washington +7	Line @ MyBookie
12.	Vincent Pioli	NFL – Texans +10.5	Line @ Bovada
13.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	NFL – Packers -6	Line @ Bovada
14.	SCORE	NFL – Vikings -2	Line @ GT Bets
15.	Tony Campone	NFL – Patriots +3.5	Line @ Bovada
16.	Chicago Sports Group	NFL – Steelers -5	Line @ Bovada
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	NFL – Cardinals under 48	Line @ Bovada
18.	VIP Action	NFL – Washington +7	Line @ GT Bets
19.	South Beach Sports	NFL – Texans over 44.5	Line @ Bovada
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	NFL – Bengals -3.5	Line @ Bovada
21.	NY Players Club	NFL – Raiders +5	Line @ GT Bets
22.	Fred Callahan	NFL – Steelers over 43	Line @ Bovada
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	NFL – Giants +7.5	Line @ MyBookie
24.	Michigan Sports	NFL – Ravens -3	Line @ GT Bets
25.	National Consensus Report	NFL – Patriots under 50.5	Line @ Bovada

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Santa Anita - Race #5 - Post: 3:06pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#9 KA'NAH (ML=7/2)
#7 MINSKY (IRE) (ML=4/1)
#2 INGEST (ML=3/1)


KA'NAH - Speed figs on the grass point to this horse as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance and surface. That last race must not have been too hard on this gelding for him to be able to race again so quickly. This gelding has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of O'Neill. Better be careful of this angle. EPS (earnings per start) is something that I think can be a vital selection factor. This entrant is ranked number 1 in this field. Running on the turf today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch. MINSKY (IRE) - Last out, this one was in a race at Del Mar in a race with an Equibase class figure of 96. Dropping considerably in Equibase class figure in today's event puts him in a solid position in this race. INGEST - For my money, a bullet workout is the best indicator of fitness there is. Look at that last one - 47.2. Very impressive. This gelding's last speed rating is high enough to win here, I'll bet on him right back in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 CROSSWORD (ML=4/1), #5 INCH (ML=6/1),

CROSSWORD - Didn't look so good last time out of the box. Probably won't do much running in today's event. No picnic to support any entrant in a short distance clash if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last 60 days. INCH - Only knocked off maiden claimers last time out. It's going to be very tough for this mount to repeat versus winners. The rating last race out doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this thoroughbred as a questionable contender.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - INGEST - Last race turf figure for this gelding is superior to the rest of these runners. You would be wise to consider speculating on this thoroughbred.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #9 KA'NAH to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,7,9] with [2,7,9] with [1,2,3,7,9] with [1,2,3,7,9] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	[2,7,9] with [2,7,9] with [2,3,7,9] with [1,2,3,5,7,9] with [1,2,3,5,7,9] Total Cost: $72

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KEENELAND PLONK PICKS

1st Race
Dual-conditioned claimers open the day in a 6-1/2 furlong dirt sprint. We’ve had 34 races at this class level in Fall Meets on dirt, and the average winner has been 4-1 with only 2 double-digit odds scores. Churchill preppers have 12 of the wins with Indiana Grand next at 5. Those two ports of call represent the entire field here. Early speed has been dominant on dirt in sprints, so lean to speed and that should help front-running Somes Sound under leading jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Shippingport was a local winner over 6 furlongs in Fall 2020, but was 2 lengths slower than par and 26th of 39 races on the clock at the meet.

2nd Race
Elder maiden claimers sprint 6 furlongs to start the early pick four. Winners in the MCL races this meet have been evenly distributed among Churchill (3), Kentucky Downs (2) and Ellis (2). All 8 have been won on or near the lead, none closing from more than 1-3/4 lengths back after the opening half-mile. These races have averaged a 6-1 return over the years on dirt in Fall Meets, and we’ve had a couple of price players score this meet at 11-1 and 17-1. Don’t be afraid to shop a bit. Itsy Bitty Betty makes sense as a daughter of leading Kee dirt sire Into Mischief, who is having another big Fall Meet. Super

3rd Race
Two-year-old maiden special weights take to the turf at 1-1/16 miles and kick off today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3. We’ve had 63 of these 2YO turf routes in Fall Meets, and note the average winner is just under 10-1 with 10 winners at 20-1 or more. First-time starters account for only 11 of the 62 winners, so lean experience, where 40 of the 51 experienced winners came out of turf preps. Kentucky Downs preppers have won 11 of the first 20 turf races at the meet. Cailin Diana’s last start at KD came with a decent run behind California Angel, who returned here earlier this week to win the Jessamine Stakes. Belmont raider Haughty could be a heavy favorite for Chad Brown, but note for all of his success, he has only a single winner (2019) in a local 2-year-old maiden special weight on turf. Rusty Arnold pulled a 10-1 upset in a similar race earlier in this Fall Meet and will have also-eligible Cold Call trying to get into the field. Of the rookies, respect all 2yos this meet firing for trainer Kenny McPeek (Lady Mercedes).

4th Race
Bottom-level claimers match up over 7 furlongs on dirt. There has been 29 claiming sprints in Fall Meets for $10,000 or less, and they have gotten more formful the longer they go. The 6-1/2 and 7 furlong events have seen 5 of 11 winning favorites, an average winner at 3-1 and no winners over 7-1. They’ve played close to the vest. The average winner in these races have been 1-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile (3 furlongs to go), and the way the track has been playing at the meet, you probably want to be even closer up front. Jack’s Advantage turns back from a route to sprint, something that’s been successful in 3 of the 5 basement-level Fall Meet races at this distance over the years. If he breaks near the front, look out with the additional stamina.

5th Race
Sprinters in the starter allowance ranks battle over 6-1/2 furlongs on dirt in the swing race to the early and late pick fives. Favorites have lost 13 straight, and 17 of the last 18, starter allowance races during Fall Meets, dating back to 2015. The last 13 winners have averaged 8-1 with a high at 14-1. So it’s not chaos, but rather juicy. Churchill preppers lead with 12 winners and Indiana Grand is next-up with 4 in Fall starter races on dirt. Thirsty Betrayal leads the CD cast in this one off a similar win in Louisville. Crime Spree runs back second time at the meet on short rest. We’ve seen Fall starter allowances won by second timers at the meet on 12, 17 and 25-days rest in past seasons…this would be the shortest turn-around at this class level.

6th Race
Allowance turf sprinters battle in the middle leg to today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3, similar to Saturday’s finale. The lack of a Wesley Ward entrant in here will force the public into some creativity as they’ve been defaulting to him with favorites all meet. My reminder: posts 3-4-5 having a statistical edge in full-field turf sprints. They account for 16 of 36 wins (46%) in fields of 12 at average odds of nearly 12-1. Barring scratches, power posts here go to Seven Scents, Huey Attack and Natural Power. Note Natural Power comes via Presque Isle, which has produced a solid 4 turf sprint ALW winners here in Fall Meets, averaging nearly 14-1 odds. Seven Scents interests most of that trio. Horses cutting back some distance have a 29-15 edge in Fall Meet turf sprint allowance races.

7th Race
This one is a dirt mile allowance. Inside speed is always noteworthy at this configuration. Posts 1-3 are 35 for 69, winning just over 50% of the offerings since the distanced debuted in 2015 for the Breeders’ Cup meet. The average winner in dirt miles is 1-1/2 lengths off the lead after the first half-mile – only 3 deep closers have made up more than 6 lengths from that point on. The 1-2-3 all have early speed in this race and it will challenge the bias to see which can withstand the others’ pressure. Frost Point could benefit with a ground-saving run from mid-pack as a daughter of Frosted, who has had a great year on the Kee dirt with his offspring in 2021. Corey Lanerie leads all Kee jockeys in dirt mile wins with 6 and will ride Bow Wow Girl.

8th Race
We get a second turf allowance sprint in today’s Keeneland Turf Pick 3 for the sequence’s final offering. Trainer Wesley Ward has won more turf sprints at Kee than anyone by far, and he won the first 2 offered this season with heavy favorites. He’ll have both Illegal Smile and Spicy Marg. My reminder: posts 3-4-5 having a statistical edge in full-field turf sprints. They account for 16 of 36 wins (46%) in fields of 12 at average odds of nearly 12-1. Barring scratches, power posts here go to Can’t Buy Love, Lady Edith and Illegal Smile. Lady Edit won the Mamzelle Stakes at Churchill earlier this year and gets back to turf sprinting after 2 poor finishes in other types of races. Illegal Smile also is a stakes winner in New York. Note Lady Edith, Prodigy Doll and Bullseye Beauty all come via Presque Isle, which has produced a solid 4 turf sprint ALW winners here in Fall Meets, averaging nearly 14-1 odds.

9th Race
Week 2 concludes with a 7-furlong maiden claimer on the dirt for 2-year-olds. We’ve had 66 MCL dirt sprints in Fall Meets for 2YOs and experienced horses hold a big 52-14 edge in victories. The average winner in Fall MCL 7F sprints is 1-1/4 lengths off the lead after the opening half-mile (3 furlongs to go), so you want to be close up. 10 of 37 winners at this class and distance came off of turf races like Jillian’s Star, My Zip Zip and Reid’s Fangirl attempt – so don’t be afraid of the surface change. Reid’s Fan Girl comes via Canterbury, and note these same connections scored a 14-1 claiming dirt upset here Saturday via Minnesota.

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KEENELAND GABBY GAUDET

1st Race
4 - 6 - 2

Somes Sound was disappointing as the favorite last time out but I think the wide post and fast pace were to blame. The pace does not project to be nearly as fast today and the drop in class will make him tough to beat. Look for Toobadsosad to be closing late. Smart Time will be caught in a tough position of chasing the pace off of a 5-month layoff.

2nd Race
7 - 6 - 5 - 2

Supertaleofhoudini broke very quickly and then faded off the layoff. He probably needed the race but I also think he might be better when taken off the pace. He should get the setup wit the presence of the #4 ,#6 and #8. Its Bitsy Betty ran really well last out, doing all the dirty work on the lead. I like the cutback in her third career start but she will have to deal with other frontrunners. First time for a tag makes Vietnam a threat.

3rd Race
5 - 10 - 1 - 3

Haughty should be running an allowance race had it not been for her swimming wide and bumping another horse at the quarter pole last out. She was much the best in that field, however and looks formidable here. Candy Kick was bet in debut and looked like a live runner. I think she needed that first race and it will make her more experienced and fitter for this spot. Dancing Dee’s race last time out is a complete toss. Both horse and rider hit the gate badly on the way out Dylan Davis wrapped up on her early. Look for her to build off of her first race effort.

4th Race
8 - 3 - 7 - 10

With the exception of Popizar, you could make a case that Oro de Tejano is coming out some of the strongest races in this field. The main track hasn’t really been playing to deep closers, so he’ll need a well-timed move. In this wide-open field, I’d rather take a shot with a long shot. Respect Popizar and Distorted Ransome as well.

5th Race
9 -1 - 8 - 10

Alex’s Strike and Thirsty Betrayal both exit the same race. Although Thirsty Betrayal won that race, I’m hoping Alex’s Strike can turn the tables. Alex’s Strike had a poor beginning and lost contact with the field early on. The 6 1/2 furlongs versus 6 furlongs last out will help him too. Beverly Park has faced easier lately but there’s no denying the excellent form he is in. I think he can transition here successfully.

6th Race
6 - 12 - 1 - 2

Souper Dormy ran like a horse that went too far last out. He made a bold move and looked like he’d win for fun, and then just flattened out. I like the blinkers on move for this race and the shortening up in distance will make him sharp for this race. Competitive Saint fits in terms of class but might have to exert a little too much energy early getting into position with that post. Using American Mandate and Shackelford’s Journey underneath.

7th Race
7 - 2 - 5 -1

This race projects to have a fast pace. Mostly stemming from Super Quick and Tellmeonasunday. That’s really the only reason why I go against Super Quick. She could get hounded the entire race. I don’t know if Trumpet Lilly is a better horse at the end of the day, but she could get a better setup with that outside draw. She is fast too but I think she can successfully rate. She was forced to go with an inside post last out and it could be a different story today with post 7. Still debating on whether or not Frost Point is a closing sprinter or will like stretching out in distance.

8th Race
3 - 12 - 2 - 5

I don’t think New Boss handled Kentucky Downs last out. Look to her turf sprint races prior to that and she certainly deserves to be one of the favorites here. Risky Reward tired late at 6 1/2 furlongs last out but shortens up to a better distance. Good speed with outside draw. Is Amalfi Princess better at this distance or a little farther? I think farther and therefore don’t pick her on top.

9th Race
2 - 7 - 10 - 8

Tricky race to end the day. I like all four of my top picks and in was difficult to sort them in order of preference. If I can afford it, will likely use all of them in the late pick 4.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Expert Analysis
By Brad Free
BEST BET: Percolate (3rd race)

First Race
1. Tony Ann 2. M Is for Magic 3. Dani Mo
Based on an improved second start, third by less than a length, ~TONY ANN^ is the one to beat in this maiden turf sprint. 'ANN saved ground forwardly placed, waited for room into
the lane, angled off the fence and finished well. She did steady late between rivals, but would have finished third anyway. Good effort, the turf filly is sitting on a win stretching from
five furlongs at Del Mar to six furlongs at Santa Anita. ~M IS FOR MAGIC^ is a nine-start maiden switching surfaces after earning a career-high figure finishing second on dirt. Her
best previous race was a turf sprint last fall in Kentucky, so the surface change is no big deal. This is just her third start following a layoff; obvious contender. ~DANI MO^ broke
slowly again, but finished well for seventh in the same race the top choice exits. DANI MO ran better than her line looks. Problem is, she broke slowly both starts. First-time starter
STOIC LUNA trains as if she might have some speed.

Second Race
1. Alleva 2. Bibleman 3. Horse Greedy
This $10k claiming sprint is filled with unreliable droppers. ~ALLEVA^ could not take the heat last out in a strong $25k claiming starter at Los Alamitos; he pressed and cracked.
But his $20k claiming N3L win two back might be good enough, he has a versatile style that allows him to either set the pace or rally from slightly off. ~BIBLEMAN^ squandered
a two-length lead at the furlong pole last out, and finished third. Like many in this field, his form is going the wrong way. Claimed for $32k two back, down to $16k last out, now in
for $10k. ~HORSE GREEDY^ returns at the bottom following a seven-month layoff. A six-time winner who was a bona fide allowance sprinter not long ago, he runs for a stable that
does well with dirt-sprint comebackers. Peter Miller won with 3 of his last 6 returning from a layoff of six months or more. ITSTHATTIME has speed, is a three-time winner at Santa
Anita, and a threat up front.

Third Race
1. Percolate 2. Picota 3. Derecho Dandy
~PERCOLATE^ ran well in his U.S. debut, runner-up in a turf mile for maiden 2yos similar to this. He can upset likely favorite ~PICOTA^, who finished third in a stakes race in his
U.S. debut. PERCOLATE ran well both starts, second in a roughly run race in summer in England, second again at DMR while chasing the wire-to-wire winner. With time between
starts, blinkers on, the lightly raced colt should deliver. However, PICOTA earned a higher figure against better company when third in a $200k stake. In that race, PICOTA finished
far in front of the Il Capitano, who defeated to the top choice in the maiden race. The point is, one could argue PICOTA is more qualified to win this maiden race. The challenge
is wheeling back in two weeks. Might not make a difference in what looks like a two-horse race. ~DERECHO DANDY^ switches to turf after splitting the field in a dirt route that
already produced at least three next-out maiden winners.

Fourth Race
1. Sweet Soulmate 2. Righteously 3. Mucha Woman
~SWEET SOULMATE^ should be tough to beat at low odds in this $25k claiming sprint for 3yo fillies. Her recent starts are faster than her rivals, she drops from claiming-caliber
sprints vs. older into an age-restricted claiming sprint. The knock on the three-time winner is her odds may be short. ~RIGHTEOUSLY^ won five of her six previous starts before the
LRC fall meet, but was then overmatched twice vs. older Cal-bred allowance foes. She finished third, and next-to-last. A six-time winner, the question is whether she can return to
form against this softer group, or if her disappointing effort last out should be taken at face value. ~MUCHA WOMAN^ also drops. A three-time winner with more than six weeks
between starts, she is likely to fire her best shot. Still might need better than that to beat the top choice.

Fifth Race
1. Ka'nah 2. Ingest 3. Starship Chewbacca
Notwithstanding an off-the-board finish at odds-on last out, ~KA'NAH^ gets the call running back at the same 25k claiming N2L level. The differences are he moves to turf and goes
first off the claim by Doug O'Neil, who wheels him back in eight days. The gelding's previous starts are fast enough for this level, and he can turf. O'Neill also entered ~INGEST^,
who drops to N2L claiming for the first time after an okay fourth vs. starter allowance types. The gelding's lone win was on the SA turf course, albeit a route. ~STARSHIP
CHEWBACCA^ looms an upset candidate. He has run fast enough for this class, although his turf form is uncertain. CROSSWORD fits off his runner-up finish two starts back vs.
claiming 3yos. Trainer John Sadler and apprentice Emily Ellingwood teamed to go 4-for-6 since early last month.

Sixth Race
1. Betito 2. El Tigre Terrible 3. Hapi Hapi
Only seven starters, but this Cal-bred N1X dirt mile is deep. ~BETITO^ gets the call returning to his favorite track. All three wins were on the SA main including a win at this level
in June. Entered for the optional $20k claim tag first start in two months, he faces a difficult pace scenario. BETITO is a front-runner, so are three others to his inside. Tepid choice.
~EL TIGRE TERRIBLE^, a two-time sprint stakes winner plunging to $20k claiming, is arguably the "best horse." But the drop is troublesome, and he has been a sprinter throughout
his career. This is only his second route; he encountered trouble his previous two-turn try. The class drop probably makes sense, because his two starts following a layoff were
ordinary. ~HAPI HAPI^ will rally late in a race that could set up for his closing style. SQUALOTORO stretches out and adds speed, along with front-runner BURNIN TURF and
stretch-out BIG STORY.

Seventh Race
1. North County Guy 2. Give Me the Lute 3. Whooping Jay
Although veteran stakes winner ~NORTH COUNTY GUY^ has been a distance specialist most of his career, he won a SA downhill turf sprint by more than five lengths in October
2018. He likes this course. The consistent gelding dominated an allowance turf route two months ago, and trained in sharp fashion for a cutback in distance to six and a half on the
Page 5 of 5
hill. He can only win if he catches ~GIVE ME THE LUTE^. The latter is all speed, his G3 runner-up last out was validated when winner Lieutenant Dan returned to win another
G3. Front-runner 'LUTE is the one to catch. ~WHOOPING JAY^ did not have a great trip last out, third in a N2X/optional $80k claiming race. He was claimed by Mark Glatt, who
won this stakes race in 2019 with first-off-the-claim Castle. WHOOPING JAY has a versatile pressing style that should lead to a good trip positioned just off the pace. Front-runner
TIGER DAD will keep the pace honest; DESMOND DOSS is a multiple stakes winner who can run long or short, dirt or turf. Top to bottom, this is good field of Cal-breds.

Eighth Race
1. Lunatic 2. Candy Runner 3. Scream and Shout
Comebacker ~LUNATIC^ returns from an eight-month layoff while dropping to the maiden-20 bottom level for the first time. Miller-trained comebackers tend to fire. ~CANDY
RUNNER^ is second start back from a layoff, also dropping in class after finishing last of five in a maiden-40 comeback. Ten-pound weight break under the new apprentice.
~SCREAM AND SHOUT^ adds speed, but her stamina is suspect.

Ninth Race
1. Fantasy Heat 2. Greg's Diva 3. Nu Pi Lambda
Also-eligible ~FANTASY HEAT^ would be tough in this N1X/optional claiming turf sprint if she draws win. She won a N2X/optional claiming sprint last out, and though six and
one-half furlongs might be a stretch, the 4-for-11 mare projects for a cozy trip just off the speed. ~GREG'S DIVA^ is all speed, first start since February. She runs well fresh, finished
one-two six of her seven starts, gets a five-pound apprentice allowance, and could steal the race. ~NU PI LAMBDA^ finished in the money, without a win, seven consecutive starts at this N1X level. She is always in the thick of it. ISN'T SHE LOVELY returns to her favorite turf course for her first in two months. She is only Sunday mount for jockey Mike Smith.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 3 - Trial - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $4000 Class Rating: 76

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE FAR WEST FUTURITY. FINAL PURSE $40,000 ADDED. FINAL TO BE RUN MONDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2021. WEIGHT: 125 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 LEAVING ANGELZ 8/5
# 6 FIVE BAR CALI 9/2
# 5 CM ROSIE AT TA BAR 5/1

I think LEAVING ANGELZ is a quite good choice. With a solid 70 average speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. With Osuna controlling the reins on him, this gelding ought to be able to break out sharply in this race. Could beat this group given the 75 Equibase Speed Fig earned in his last outing. FIVE BAR CALI - Quite good gamble today on Lasix. Should be carefully examined - I like the figs from the last competition. CM ROSIE AT TA BAR - Has been running solidly lately and ought to be up on the lead early on.

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