Friday 10/29/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Friday, October 29, 2021 at Belmont Park
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt


Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.


2^nd race [Clm 50000, 1 1/16 mi] – (6) Vintage Hollywood (D) was bet down from 9-1 to 5-1 in a second-level allowance race and now returns from a three-month layoff to drop back to the claiming ranks where he was last a winner. (1) Croatian won a second-level allowance at Monmouth Park in his last start following a try in the Iselin (G2). (5) Chris and Dave will drop back to the $50,000 level where he won a few races back and was claimed. His last start in the long-distance stake was a throw-out. (4) Control Group is a veteran with 17 career wins that got claimed for $45,000 out of a NY-bred OC allowance.


4^th race [OC80k/N2X, 1 1/16 mi] – (2) First Constitution (A) was checked and then impeded at the half-mile pole and finished beaten by less than a length in his second start since coming to America from Chile. (6) Speaker’s Corner had a poor showing in the PA Derby (G1) after his dazzling allowance score in his 2021 debut. Blinkers go on for Bill Mott. (1) Backsideofthemoon had the lead at the stretch call but lost by a head and finished in front of the Hot List horse in that race. (3) Limonite has a chance to be part of the trifecta in this field of six.


7^th race [NY, OC45k/N2X, 6F TURF] – (1) Violent Point (B) stumbled to her knees at the start, got far back, and rallied to finish second in a race where she was claimed for $40,000. (3) Social Whirl is the winner of her last three starts for Tom Morley moving from a maiden claimer to a N2L against open company to the first-level NY-bred allowance. (6) Summer Brew won two allowances at Belmont Park and then was second in a state-bred stake. She returns from a four-month rest and drops in for a tag for the first time. (7) Kept Waiting was last seen in April winning a first level allowance for NY-breds at Belmont for Rob Falcone.


9^th race [Oyster Bay, 7F TURF] – (7) Buy Land and See (B) came back from a year off to run in the Belmont Turf Sprint (G3) where he was keen early, fought restraint, and got stuck in traffic. (11) Value Proposition leads a trio of Chad Brown runners in this race and Brown has been winning almost every stake that he enters as of late. This guy won the Red Bank at Monmouth last month. (6) Flavius is also a Brown trainee and he won the Lure at Saratoga with a triple digit Beyer. (4) Emaraaty is the third from Chad and he returned from a five-month layoff to win a second-level allowance to the Spa.

Best bets: First Constitution (4^th); Violent Point (7^th). Best value: Vintage Hollywood (2^nd); Buy Land and See (9^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(6)	Vintage Hollywood	D on 7/3	2	Bet down last race and drops into the claiming ranks.
(2)	First Constitution	A on 10/2	4	Got checked and impeded last time and almost won.
(1)	Violent Point	A on 10/7	7	Stumbled to her knees at start and rallied for second.
(7)	Buy Land and See	B on 10/2	9	He was keen early and then got stuck in traffic in a G3.

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Belmont Park Picks & Betting Analysis for October 29
By J.N. Campbell

BELMONT PARK Picks
29th October 2021

Race 1 : 6-2-3-7
Race 2 : 5-1-3-4
Race 3 : 7-5-1-8
Race 4 : 6-3-1-5
Race 5 : 5-9-1-8
Race 6 : 4-2-5-6
Race 7 : 1-8-3-6
Race 8 : 9-1-4-1
Race 9 : 5-11-6-4
Race 10 : 3-1-6-4


Most Likely Winner: (Race 4: Speaker’s Corner #6, 1/1):
Bill Mott’s colt by Street Sense did not have much to show in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) up against Hot Rod Charlie. The colt is looking to make a comeback, gaining some confidence at a much lower level. The Godolphin homebred should make quick work of this field, and I would expect that he will roll late … as per his style. Though he will not offer much value, the object is to win. He should do that in fine style with regular Mott rider Junior Alvarado in the irons.
Wagering Recommendation: $100, #6

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Guns Blazing #9, 6/1):
Even though this Kelly Breen runner only has 2 career wins in 14 starts, doesn’t mean she is headed in the wrong direction at this stage of her career. The 3-yr-old filly by Firing Line appears “tested,” and she comes to NYRA for the 1st time in her career. She has some nice efforts under her at both Pimlico and Monmouth. That might not earn her much respect around these parts because horses that ship from the Mid-Atlantic are treated as outsiders … that is, until they win. With Luis Saez at the controls, she has a good chance of scoring against what appears to be a pretty tame field of rivals.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #9 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 9: Turf, 7F, Oyster Bay S., $100k, 3+):
In this race, the Chad Brown Barn is going to be ever-present. He sends 3 … count ‘em … 3 runners into what is a large field of turf sprinters. This is almost a mile in distance, and frankly any one of these has the capability to win. Emaraaty #4 is well-bred for the grass out of legendary sire Dubawi (IRE), and the 6-yr-old was all-out in her last race at Saratoga. Madaket and Dubb like to invest in ones from Europe, and this horse has great ability with Javier Castellano aboard. The second Brown turfer is the Juddmonte homebred, Flavius #6. By War Front, another super producer of sodbusters, this one has shipped far-and-wide to parts unknown. The ridgling’s record is not impeccable, but it is serviceable in a spot like this one. Who doesn’t like backing the celebrated team with the pink sash?
Last, but certainly not least, is the presumptive favorite from Klaravich Stables, Value Proposition #11. Even though this 5-yr-old by Dansili (GB) did not make it to the Breeders’ Cup, that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the pedigree, nor the rating ability to easily win a race like this one. With Luis Saez as pilot, the red-lettered “KS” entry deserves the top spot on the tote. Is there anyone that can take on this Brown trio? I am interested in the Ribaudo Barn’s Pulsate #5, and I am brazen enough to think that he can get the job done. It will not be an easy task, but maybe Manny Franco can lead this one to the promised land of the “Non-G” winners. What a payout it would be …
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Wheel, 5 w 4/6/11 w 4/6/11

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

Penn National - Race 4	W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / $1.00 Pick 5 (Races 4-8)
Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $10,800 • Post: 7:22P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 29. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. DENNIS' DIAMOND is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DENNIS' DIAMOND: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. THUNDER GRUNDER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ESKENFORTIME: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase C lass Rating at the distance/surface.
1	DENNIS' DIAMOND	5/1	7/2
5	THUNDER GRUNDER	5/2	6/1
6	ESKENFORTIME	7/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	DENNIS' DIAMOND	1	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	79	75	64.4	72.0	65.5
3	SPIN CYCLE	3	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	66	68.0	67.4	57.4
6	ESKENFORTIME	6	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	82	68	56.9	71.1	65.6
5	THUNDER GRUNDER	5	5/2	Trailer	89	88	60.0	70.0	65.5
4	ZAYA	4	9/2	Trailer	81	72	54.4	71.8	66.3
2	GEMS MINESHAFT RVF	2	12/1	Trailer	84	75	37.0	69.8	60.8

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Stronach 5

Stronach 5 - Race 1	Leg A of the Stronach Pick 5 Race 8 from Laurel
Allowance • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $48,000 • Post: 4:07P
LRL - R8 - (RAIL AT 70 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR MD SIRED OR MD BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING SINCE AUGUST 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE AND ONE HALF FURLONGS)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MONTAUK DADDY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ABUELO PAPS: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. FEDERALE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SUBJECT TO CHANGE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HARD TO BE H UMBLE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
1	MONTAUK DADDY	5/1	4/1
14	ABUELO PAPS	4/1	7/1
12	FEDERALE	8/1	8/1
8	SUBJECT TO CHANGE	15/1	8/1
2	HARD TO BE HUMBLE	4/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
12	FEDERALE	12	8/1	Front-runner	88	81	109.1	80.2	66.7
1	MONTAUK DADDY	1	5/1	Front-runner	94	97	106.8	84.0	79.5
14	ABUELO PAPS	14	4/1	Front-runner	93	93	95.7	73.9	64.9
2	HARD TO BE HUMBLE	2	4/1	Front-runner	87	84	92.2	80.2	63.2
15	IGNITED	15	6/1	Front-runner	84	81	88.3	76.7	62.7
3	EXTRA MEDIUM	3	10/1	Stalker	90	84	75.0	80.2	63.2
4	ALL THREES	4	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	82	76.7	81.8	68.3
11	HUNTER JOE	11	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	88	71.1	48.4	26.4
8	SUBJECT TO CHANGE	8	15/1	Trailer	85	77	99.5	82.5	68.5
6	GHOST GAME	6	30/1	Trailer	92	83	66.3	77.8	58.8
9	RAD PAISLEY	9	12/1	Trailer	75	68	59.6	71.1	52.1
5	FLANK SPEED	5	20/1	Trailer	84	79	54.2	76.6	52.1
10	THE PREDICAMENT	10	10/1	Trailer	93	82	26.3	74.3	59.3
7	DIALING DIXIE	7	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	88	87	76.8	45.5	25.0
13	IRISH MIAS	13	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	99	88	0.0	0.0	0.0

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 IN THE EVENT THAT THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF IT WILL BE CONTESTED AT ONE MILE AND

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 JUNIOR BUG 4/1
# 3 GAGOOTS 8/1
# 8 CHARLIECANDO 8/1

I have to consider JUNIOR BUG here. Has performed soundly recently in route races, posting a nifty 77 avg speed rating. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. Will likely be one of the front-runners of the pack going into the halfway point of the race. GAGOOTS - Recent figures for the jockey - 19 win percent - make this colt stand out in this field. Ran a very strong last race. CHARLIECANDO - Will likely be one of the front-runners of the group going into the halfway point of the race. Could best this field based on the speed fig - 74 - of his last contest.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #4 - Post: 1:59pm - Optional Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $56,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#3 BLUEFIELD (ML=6/1)
#4 DONTLETSWEETFOOLYA (ML=5/2)
#2 MOQUIST (ML=8/5)


BLUEFIELD - It looks like Perez had to be more familiar with this mare on September 6th when riding her for the first time. Back aloft again today. I predict an ideal trip. Stalk the early pace, and pounce on the turn. Horse has improved at least two Equibase speed fig points in last two races. I look for that positive trend to continue in this event. You have to bet this horse at a track she likes. There's nothing like being comfortable out on the track when it's time to race. DONTLETSWEETFOOLYA - This filly has been training well, and the recent bullet work says she's primed for a big race today. This filly runs very well off of a vacation. This mount loves the track here at Laurel. MOQUIST - This filly is in good condition, having run a strong race on October 16th, finishing first. Utilizing this rider/conditioner combination is a smart move. Leader at every call in last race at Laurel. Decent chance to repeat that effort right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 NEEDS SUPERVISION (ML=7/2), #1 LOOKIN DYNAMIC (ML=6/1),

NEEDS SUPERVISION - Should have at least finished in the money in the last sixty days in a sprint race to be worth it at modest odds in a sprint. I'd like to see more conducive recent efforts with morning line odds of 7/2. LOOKIN DYNAMIC - No picnic to wager on this steed this time. Make her show you something in a short distance event before you bet on her in a race of 7 furlongs. Would have to improve off that sixth place finish last time to make an impact here.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - BLUEFIELD - At Timonium on September 6th this mare posted a speed figure of 95 in her last race. She has the best last figure in the field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 BLUEFIELD to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,3,4] with [2,3,4] with [1,2,3,4,5] with [1,2,3,4,5] Total Cost: $36

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Keeneland - Race #9 - Post: 5:16pm - Stakes - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $150,000 Class Rating: 103 Rubicon Valley View S. (Grade 3)

Rating:

#8 BREAKER OF CHAINS (ML=8/1)
#14 GAM'S MISSION (ML=10/1)
#4 TOBYS HEART (ML=7/2)


BREAKER OF CHAINS - Earned a nice turf fig on Sep 11th at Kentucky Downs. A repeat in this event, and this one has a great shot to win. Weaver has a very solid win percent in grass routes. This filly should be ready to win. Past performance data show this racer with three improving Equibase speed figs. Gaffalione should be on a live horse today. I like the hard fact that this filly's last figure, 104, is tops in this field. Even though she isn't from around here, when a thoroughbred has hit the board at a major foreign venue she will usually give a good account of herself soon after shipping. GAM'S MISSION - Strong average class rating on this horse. Should have the class ability to run well on the turf. This filly has been trying different distances, but from the looks of things, she ran a nice speed rating last try at this trip. TOBYS HEART - Don't often see a beneficial return on investment like +30. This rider/trainer duet has done well together over the last year. This animal has increased her Equibase speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is telling me this horse is ready.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 CRAZY BEAUTIFUL (ML=3/1), #12 QUEENSHIP (IRE) (ML=8/1), #7 ADVENTURING (ML=8/1),

CRAZY BEAUTIFUL - This racer ran a mediocre speed figure last time out. She shouldn't run much better and will likely lose in today's event running that fig. QUEENSHIP (IRE) - Finished first in her most recent race with a run-of-the-mill speed fig. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field. ADVENTURING - Don't feel this steed will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed figure was substandard when compared with today's class rating.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - BREAKER OF CHAINS - Coming off a very solid final fraction on September 11th, this filly is going to be difficult to beat today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 BREAKER OF CHAINS to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,8,14]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,8,14] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[4,8,14] with [4,8,14] with [4,8,10,11,14] with [4,8,10,11,14] Total Cost: $36

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1.	The Spot Player	NBA	Indiana +8.5	2-1 (+90)	4-1 (+295)
2.	Elite Sports Picks	NBA	Nets under 223	3-0-1 (+300)	5-2 (+280)
3.	Insider Sports Report			3-0 (+300)	4-2 (+180)
4.	Doc's Picks	MLB	Atlanta over 8.5	4-0 (+415)	4-2 (+180)
5.	The Sports Consensus	CFB	Navy +11	1-3 (-230)	4-2 (+80)
6.	Primetime Sports Picks	NBA	Toronto -8	1-2 (-120)	3-3 (-30)
7.	Top Rank Sports Picks	CFB	Nevada under 58.5	2-1 (-120)	2-4 (-230)
8.	Profit On Sports	NBA	Clippers +3	3-0 (+300)	2-4 (-240)
9.	National Sports Service	NBA	Pelicans under 221	3-0 (+300)	1-4 (-340)

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Joe Wiz	NBA	ORLANDO MAGIC/TORONTO RAPTORS o206	3	1	+190
DMOOSE		No pick yet	1	0	+100
Insider Sports Report		No pick yet	1	0	+100
Mikey Sports	NBA	CHARLOTTE HORNETS +6	2	2	-20
R and R Totals	NCAA Football	NAVY MIDSHIPMEN/TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE o46	2	2	-20
Rocketman Sports		No pick yet	2	2	-45
XS Sports Picks	NBA	ORLANDO MAGIC +280	1	2	-100
5thstreetpicks		No pick yet	1	3	-210
Tommy King Wins	NCAA Football	NEVADA WOLF PACK ‑20	1	3	-230
FURBOOKIE		No pick yet	0	2	-250
Ace / Sleeper Selections	MLB	HOUSTON ASTROS +100	0	0	0
Top Shelf Sports Pick	NBA	LOS ANGELES LAKERS ‑300	0	0	0
Vegas Investment Picks	NBA	MIAMI HEAT ‑5.5	0	0	0

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Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks	Place A Bet
1.	NSA(The Legend)	NBA – Raptors -8	Line @ Bovada
2.	Gameday Network	NBA – Clippers over 222	Line @ Bovada
3.	Sports Action 365	NBA – Cavaliers +7	Line @ BetAnySports
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	NHL – Stars -1.5	Line @ GT Bets
5.	VegasSI.com	NHL – Blackhawks +170	Line @ Bovada
6.	PointSpreadReport.com(SAM CASEY)	NHL – Capitals under 6	Line @ BetAnySports
7.	Winning Big Sports	NBA – Hornets +6.5	Line @ MyBookie
8.	NSA(Gerry “Big Cat” Andino)	NBA – Raptors over 208	Line @ Bovada
9.	Lou Panelli	NBA – Heat -6.5	Line @ BetAnySports
10.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	NHL – Blackhawks under 6	Line @ GT Bets
11.	William E. Stockton	NHL – Golden Knights -1.5	Line @ MyBookie
12.	Vincent Pioli	NHL – Stars over 5.5	Line @ Bovada
13.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	NBA – Clippers +2.5	Line @ Bovada
14.	SCORE	NBA – Heat over 221.5	Line @ GT Bets
15.	Tony Campone	NBA – Lakers -7	Line @ BetAnySports
16.	Chicago Sports Group	NHL – Red Wings +160	Line @ Bovada
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	NHL – Blackhawks +170	Line @ Bovada
18.	VIP Action	NBA – Kings -2	Line @ GT Bets
19.	South Beach Sports	NBA – Raptors -8	Line @ Bovada
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	NBA – Heat -6.5	Line @ Bovada
21.	NY Players Club	NHL – Capitals -1.5	Line @ BetAnySports
22.	Fred Callahan	NHL – Golden Knights over 5.5	Line @ Bovada
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	NHL – Stars -1.5	Line @ MyBookie
24.	Michigan Sports	MLB – Pacers +8.5	Line @ GT Bets
25.	National Consensus Report	NHL – Capitals -1.5	Line @ Bovada

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Toronto -8 over Orlando

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, FRIDAY, October 29, 2021
10/29 04:40 PM PT / 7:40 PM ET

NBA (565) INDIANA PACERS VS (566) BROOKLYN NETS

Take: (565) INDIANA PACERS

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: INDIANA/BROOKLYN OVER the total of 223

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Totals4U

Friday's Free Selection: Orlando Magic/Toronto Raptors under 210

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Roz Wins

ROZ FREE Selection FRIDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2021

FREE NBA
567. Kings -2 (5:10 PT / 8:10 ET)