Sunday 10/31/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at SoFi Stadium.

Oddsmakers opened the Chargers as -5.5-point favorites versus the Patriots, while the game's total opened at 47.5.

In their last action, Los Angeles was a 34-6 loser on the road against the Ravens. They failed to cover the +3-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (40) was profitable news for UNDER bettors.

The Patriots were a 54-13 winner in their most recent outing at home against the Jets. They covered the -7-point spread as favorites, while the total score (67) made winners of OVER bettors.

New England:
Team record: 3-4 SU,3-4 ATS
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New England's last 15 games
New England is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games on the road

Los Angeles:
Team record: 4-2 SU,4-2 ATS
LA Chargers is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
LA Chargers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games

Next up:
New England at Carolina Sunday, November 7
Los Angeles at Philadelphia Sunday, November 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BETTING ODDS TRENDS

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
LA Chargers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 7-13-1 ATS in its last 21 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games at home
LA Chargers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing New England
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New England
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against New England

New England Patriots
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New England's last 15 games
New England is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games when playing LA Chargers
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Seattle Seahawks will both be trying to pick up a win on Sunday when they battle at Lumen Field.

Oddsmakers opened the Seahawks as -3.5-point favorites versus the Jaguars, while the game's total opened at 43.5.

The Seahawks were a 13-10 loser in their most recent outing at home against the Saints. They covered the +6-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (23) made winners of UNDER bettors.

Jacksonville won its last outing, a 23-20 result against the Dolphins on October 17. The Jaguars covered in that game as a +1.5-point underdog, while the 43 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

Jacksonville:
Team record: 1-5 SU,2-4 ATS
Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Jacksonville is 1-20 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games

Seattle:
Team record: 2-5 SU,4-3 ATS
Current Streak: lost 3 straight games.
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

Next up:
Jacksonville home to Buffalo Sunday, November 7
Seattle at Green Bay Sunday, November 14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BETTING ODDS TRENDS

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games at home
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Jacksonville is 1-20 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Seattle

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM VS. DENVER BRONCOS

The Washington Football Team and the Denver Broncos will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at Empower Field at Mile High.

Oddsmakers opened the Broncos as -3.5-point favorites versus the Football Team, while the game's total opened at 44.5.

The Broncos were a 17-14 loser in their most recent outing on the road against the Browns. They failed to cover the +2-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (31) made winners of UNDER bettors.

Washington was a 24-10 loser in its last match on the road against the Packers. They failed to cover the +9-point spread as underdogs, while the total score of 34 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.

Washington:
Team record: 2-5 SU,1-6 ATS
Current Streak: lost 3 straight games.
Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games

Denver:
Team record: 3-4 SU,3-4 ATS
Current Streak: lost 4 straight games.
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games

Next up:
Washington home to Tampa Bay Sunday, November 14
Denver at Dallas Sunday, November 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BETTING ODDS TRENDS

Denver Broncos
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Washington
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington

Washington Football Team
Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Denver
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

If familiarity breeds contempt, there should be animosity aplenty on Sunday when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints meet at Caesars Superdome.

Oddsmakers opened the Buccaneers as -4-point favorites versus the Saints, while the game's total opened at 49.5.

New Orleans won its last outing, a 13-10 result against the Seahawks on October 25. The Saints failed to cover in that game as a -6-point favorite, while the 23 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

Tampa Bay was a 38-3 winner in its last match at home against the Bears. They covered the -12-point spread as favorites, while the total score of 41 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.

Tampa Bay:
Team record: 6-1 SU,3-4 ATS
Current Streak: won 4 straight games.
Tampa Bay is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road

New Orleans:
Team record: 4-2 SU,3-3 ATS
New Orleans is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games
New Orleans is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home

Next up:
Tampa Bay at Washington Sunday, November 14
New Orleans home to Atlanta Sunday, November 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BETTING ODDS TRENDS

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games
New Orleans is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 21 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DALLAS COWBOYS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The fans at U.S. Bank Stadium will be treated to a game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Minnesota Vikings when they take their seats on Sunday.

Oddsmakers opened the Cowboys as -2.5-point favorites versus the Vikings, while the game's total opened at 52.5.

The Vikings were a 34-28 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the Panthers. They covered the -2-point spread as favorites, while the total score (62) made winners of OVER bettors.

In their last action, Dallas was a 35-29 winner on the road against the Patriots. They covered the -3.5-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (64) was profitable news for OVER bettors.

Dallas:
Team record: 5-1 SU,6-0 ATS
Current Streak: won 5 straight games.
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games

Minnesota:
Team record: 3-3 SU,3-3 ATS
Minnesota is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games
Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Next up:
Dallas home to Denver Sunday, November 7
Minnesota at Baltimore Sunday, November 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BETTING ODDS TRENDS

Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games
Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 12 games at home
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Minnesota is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Dallas
Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Dallas is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Minnesota
Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TECH TRENDS - WEEK 8

SUNDAY, OCT. 31
MIAMI AT BUFFALO (CBS - 1:00 P.M. ET)
Miami winless SU and only 1-5 vs. line since 22-7 spread mark in 29 games.
Matt Moore only Miami QB to win game SU at Orchard Park since 2010 (twice).
Buffalo 7-2 vs. spread last nine hosting Miami.
Five in row went OVER in series before UNDER in first meeting
Tech Edge: Bills and OVER based on total and extended series trends.

CAROLINA AT ATLANTA (FOX - 1:00 P.M. ET)
Panthers lost and failed to cover four straight.
Carolina covered eight of last 10 on road, though Ls have come in last two on road.
Atlanta covered six of last seven vs. Carolina and UNDER in seven of last nine vs. Carolina.
Tech Edge: Falcons and UNDER based on series and total trends.

SAN FRANCISCO AT CHICAGO (FOX - 1:00 P.M. ET)
iners no covered last four and just 1-5 vs. spread after loss to Indy.
Niners UNDER in six of last nine as road team (not counting neutral site).
Bears UNDER in last six and seven of last eight
Tech Edge: Under based on total trends.

PHILADELPHIA AT DETROIT (FOX - 1:00 P.M. ET)
Eagles dropped last six vs. line on road in 2020, but 2-2 vs. line in last four on road TY.
Eagles 11-6 UNDER run
Lions SU losing streak at 11 but covered four of last six at home.
Tech Edge: UNDER and Lions based on total and team trends.

PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND (CBS - 1:00 P.M. ET)
Pittsbirgh covered four of last five in series during regular season.
Tomlin 9-2 last 12 as underdog.
Cleveland 3-6 vs. spread in last nine home games
Tech Edge: Steelers based on team and recent series trends.

L.A. RAMS AT HOUSTON (FOX - 1:00 P.M. ET)
Houston covered three of first seven in 2021.
Rams OVER in seven of last nine since 2020
Tech Edge: OVER based on total trends.

TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS (CBS - 1:00 P.M. ET)
Titans OVER in 27 of last 37.
Titans covered five of last six but Indy has covered last four and five of last six.
Tech Edge: OVER and Titans based on total and team trends.

TAMPA BAY AT NEW ORLEANS (FOX - 4:25 P.M. ET)
Sean Payton 6-2 last eight as underdog.
Saints UNDER in seven of last nine and two meetings vs. Bucs went UNDER in 2020.
Brady yet to cover spread in three games as visitor this season.
Tech Edge: UNDER and Saints based on total and team trends.

WASHINGTON AT DENVER (FOX - 4:25 P.M. ET)
Rivera 1-6 vs. line this year.
UNDER 8-5 in last 12 for Washington despite OVER 4-3 this season.
Broncos no wins or cover last four, Fangio UNDER in five of last seven.
Tech Edge: UNDER based on total trends.

NEW ENGLAND AT L.A. CHARGERS (CBS - 4:05 P.M. ET)
Pats won meeting 45-0 LY at SoFi.
Pats 19-9-1 as dog since 2009.
Belichick UNDER 15-8 since 2019, Bolts UNDER in five of last six.
Tech Edge: UNDER and Patriots based on total and team trends.

JACKSONVILLE AT SEATTLE (CBS - 4:05 P.M. ET)
Jags covered five of last seven on road, 2-1 TY.
Seahawks UNDER in six of last eight at home, also 5-10 in last 15 as chalk overall
Tech Edge: Jags and UNDER based on team and total trends.

DALLAS AT MINNESOTA (NBC - 8:20 P.M. ET)
Dak now won last five SU and 6-0 vs. line this season.
Boys OVER in five of last six.
Zimmer 3-3 vs. line but 3-10 last 13.
Vikings OVER 14-7-1 record since last season.
Tech Edge: OVER and Cowboys based on total and team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot and Not Report - Week 8

NFL favorites continue to be a headache for oddsmakers in recent weeks, as they are 30-11 SU and 24-17 ATS since Week 5 (pending SNF and MNF), with most of the highly popular favorites continuing to bring home the cash. It's as if the NFL is just the next professional sports league (NBA and MLB) that's seen the disparity between their good and bad teams continue to grow as “tanking” is more commonly accepted in all these leagues.

Massive TV contracts and league-wide revenue sharing from those contracts give the owners of struggling teams little to no incentive to be in a rush to improve the on-field product as they'll get paid either way. These owners use the guise of a “rebuild” to keep their contracts down and the talent level bare on the field, and when you get multiple games a year for those good teams where they can just sleep walk to victories, it creates a real dilemma for oddsmakers on how large to put up the point spreads for these games.

Bettors that do prefer to go with favorites have done quite well in recent weeks because of this, and those that are in survivor pools end up with multiple “easy” choices to go through each week because these big favorites have such and edge in talent on the field, that they've really got to play poorly to lose the game outright. And 2021 is no different so far.

Who's Hot

NFL favorites of 7.5 or more points this year are 23-0 SU in 2021 (14-9 ATS)

Running at a 100% clip rate is still a little absurd now that we are through seven weeks of the season, but it's not like it's that new of a phenomenon for the NFL either. The 2017 season saw favorites of -7.5 or more go 44- 11 SU for the season (26-28-1 ATS), with those same parameters yielding 49-11 SU (28-31-1 ATS) in 2018, 45-11 SU (27-28-1 ATS) in 2019, and 50-8 SU (26-31-1 ATS) last year.

The interesting thing about all those years compared to this season though, is that those big favorites did ultimately finish with a losing ATS record overall. There were an average of 57.25 games in all those previous seasons combined so to already be 23 games into the year in 2021 and still be a +5 in ATS results is really where I think we start to see larger and larger point spreads come up in these games between the haves and the have nots.

All of that still doesn't take away from the idea of simply throwing together a ML parlay each week with these teams right now. Week 1 would have connected on a three-teamer (Tampa Bay, SF, LAR), with Week 2 being another three-teamer connection as well. Bettors could have hit on a five-teamer in Week 3, a two-teamer in Week 4, a four-teamer in Week 5, a two-teamer in Week 6, and a four-teamer this past week (all pending ML odds are available for these games).

If you're in a survivor pool, I don't have any idea why you'd look anywhere else right now. Last year we saw the strategy of simply fading Jacksonville each week pay dividends from Week 2 on when the Jags lost 15 straight to end the season, and this year the Houston Texans are in that same category. But the Texans might not be the only ones either as there are a handful of teams that are going to be catching a TD-plus on the spreads in numerous games the rest of the way.

However, there is a warning sign in that history in that every year we had at least eight of these big favorites lose outright and we've yet to see one happen in 2021. That doesn't necessary mean that Cincinnati (-9.5) at NY Jets, LA Rams (-14) at Houston, Buffalo (-13) vs Miami, or KC (-10) vs NY Giants are going to be the first of these big favorites to go down in Week 8, but they are the four applicable games for this upcoming week, and currently a four-team ML parlay featuring those four franchises is in the -115 range.

That's not exactly the worst price to pay for a streak that's currently 23-0 this year, and with the way these point spreads are likely to continue to climb on a week-to-week basis this year with the divide growing between the top and bottom of the league, it's a strategy to at least keep in mind the rest of the season. All good things do come to an end though.

Who's Not

Fading the current division leaders ATS (Cincinnati, Buffalo, Tennessee, Las Vegas, Dallas, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Arizona) in division games you are 1-13 ATS this season

Any NFL team will tell you the best path to the playoffs is to take care of business within the division, and when teams can not only do that by winning SU, but covering those point spreads as well, bettors really have no choice but to take notice. Those eight teams that enter Week 8 atop their respective divisions have done just that by going 13-1 ATS against division foes, and Week 8 gives bettors three opportunities to continue to ride this streak as well.

Two division leaders go out on the road to battle a rival, Tennessee (no spread) at Indianapolis and Tampa Bay (no spread) at New Orleans, while the Buffalo Bills (-13) host Miami in a rematch from a Week 2 meeting that Buffalo won 35-0 as -3.5 road chalk.

That means that Buffalo's already mentioned twice in this piece for a positive result in Week 8 – being favored by 7.5 or more and the 23-0 SU record and this 13-1 ATS run in division games for division leaders – and we haven't even got to the typical “good spot” of coming off a bye for Buffalo. So don't be surprised to see this Bills number climb throughout the week to likely hit that key number of 14 or higher.

The other two division leaders will look to continue this great ATS run for division leaders with ATS victories away from home, and chances are they'll be the ones garnering more of the betting support in those respective matchups in Week 8 too. Tennessee has looked great in beating Buffalo and Kansas City in consecutive weeks, while Tampa Bay and the Buccaneers continue to just win games.

However, the Bucs are just 3-4 ATS this season overall, and 0-3 ATS as road favorites, so it's not like it's all good news for Tampa backers in Week 8.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better in the last 2 seasons.

MIAMI is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1992.

CAROLINA is 39-20 ATS (17 Units) in road games vs. bad defenses (>24 PPG) since 1992.

DETROIT is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.

INDIANAPOLIS are 24-9 ATS (14.1 Units) after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points since 1992.

LA RAMS are 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

NY JETS are 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the last 2 seasons.

PITTSBURGH is 69-35 ATS (30.5 Units) vs. good passing QB (>7 PYA) since 1992.

SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) vs. losing teams in the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992.

NEW ENGLAND is 25-9 ATS (15.1 Units) in road games off 3 or more consecutive overs since 1992.

TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after going under the total in the last 2 seasons.

DALLAS are 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in the current season.

NY GIANTS are 44-22 ATS (19.8 Units) in road games vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Week 8
Trend Report

Green Bay @ Arizona
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

LA Rams @ Houston
LA Rams
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home

San Francisco @ Chicago
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games on the road
San Francisco is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home

Miami @ Buffalo
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

Cincinnati @ NY Jets
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Jets
NY Jets is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
NY Jets is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

Tennessee @ Indianapolis
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Pittsburgh's last 24 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

Philadelphia @ Detroit
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games

Carolina @ Atlanta
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Carolina's last 10 games
Carolina is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Carolina

New England @ LA Chargers
New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games at home

Jacksonville @ Seattle
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games

Washington @ Denver
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
Tampa Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

Dallas @ Minnesota
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota
Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas

NY Giants @ Kansas City
NY Giants
NY Giants is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Kansas City is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Week 8

Thursday game
Green Bay (6-1) @ Arizona (7-0)
— Green Bay won last six games (5-0-1 ATS), scoring 27.5 ppg.
— Green Bay’s star WR Adans is on COVID protocols list (check status).
— Packers have been positive in turnovers their last six games (+8)
— Packers are giving up 25.5 ppg on road, 14.7 at home.
— Green Bay is 7-2 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
— Last four Packer games stayed under the total.
— Last five games, Packers have 24 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 14.
— NFC North road underdogs are 7-5 ATS in non-division games.

— Arizona won its first seven games (6-1 ATS), scoring 32.1 ppg.
— Cardinals have 26 TD’s on 72 drives this season.
— Arizona has 181 points on 31 drives to red zone (5.84)
— Under Kingsbury, Arizona is 4-6 ATS as a home favorites.
— Arizona has 29 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 19.
— Last five games, Cardinals are +8 in turnovers.
— Cardinals are only unbeaten team in NFL.
— NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 2-5 ATS.

— Arizona won four of last five meetings.
— Two of those wins were in OT, both in playoff games.
— Green Bay lost last three visits to Arizona; their last win here was in 2009.

Sunday games
Miami (1-6) @ Buffalo (4-2)
— Miami lost last six games, giving up 31.7 ppg.
— Dolphins are 1-3 in games decided by 3 or fewer points.
— Last two games, Miami converted 16-28 third down plays.
— Last three years, Dolphins are 10-5 ATS as road underdogs.
— Miami has given up 45 plays of 20+ yards, has only 26 themselves.
— Since 2012, Miami is 10-18 ATS in AFC East road games.
— Four of last five Dolphin games went over the total.

— Bills won/covered four of its last five games.
— All four of their wins are by 18+ points.
— Buffalo has given up 10 TD’s on 62 drives.
— Bills are 6-2 ATS last eight games as home favorites.
— Last four games, Bills are +11 in turnovers.
— Buffalo outscored first six foes 111-44 in first half.
— Three of last four Buffalo games went over the total.
— Last six years, Bills are 4-1-1 ATS in their post-bye game.

— In Week 2, Bills won 35-0 at Miami, holding Dolphins to 216 yards.
— Bills won last five series games, four by 10+ points.
— Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in last nine visits to Orchard Park.

Carolina (3-4) @ Atlanta (3-3)
— Carolina lost last four games after 3-0 start, giving up 29 ppg.
— Under Rhule, Panthers are 8-3 ATS on the road.
— Carolina outscored opponents 82-42 in first half.
— Last four games, Panthers were outscored 80-35 in second half.
— Under is 5-2 in Carolina games this season.
— Carolina is 15-13 ATS last 28 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Darnold got yanked last week, is expected to start here.
— Last three games, Panthers converted 9-42 third down plays.

— Atlanta won three of last four games to even its record.
— Falcons scored 29 ppg last three games (16 ppg first three)
— Atlanta is 0-2 SU at home, losing to Philly/Washington.
— Atlanta is 2-7 ATS last nine games as a home favorite.
— Falcons have been outscored 111-62 in 2nd half of games.
— Last three games, Atlanta converted 25-43 3rd down plays.
— Last 3+ years, Atlanta is 10-15 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Over is 4-1 in last five Atlanta games.

— Falcons are 9-2 in last eleven series games.
— Falcons are +7 in turnovers in last four meetings.
— Panthers are 2-11 ATS in last 13 visits to Atlanta.
— Underdogs won last three series games SU.

Philadelphia (2-5) @ Detroit (0-7)
— Eagles lost five of their last six games.
— Last two weeks, Philly allowed 8 TD’s on 19 drives.
— Eagles are favored for first time this season.
— Last six years, Eagles were 8-13 ATS as road favorites.
— Last three games, Philly was outscored 53-19 in first half.
— Philly split four road games SU, winning at Atlanta/Carolina.
— Last six weeks, Eagles were outscored 101-43 in first half.
— NFC East teams are 7-3 ATS in non-divisional road games.

— Detroit is winless, has gone WLWLWLW vs spread.
— Last five games, Lions were outscored 64-22 in first half.
— Lions were in red zone five times LW, scored only nine points.
— Detroit gave up at least 7.3 yards/pass attempt in every game.
— Since 2015, Detroit is 11-20 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last five Detroit games stayed under the total.
— Lions lost twice on last-second FG’s, hung with Rams until end LW.

— Detroit won four of last five series games, last two by total of 4 points.
— Eagles are 0-3 ATS in last three visits here; their last win in Detroit? 2010.

Tennessee (5-2) @ Indianapolis (3-4)
— Tennessee won/covered five of last six games, scoring 30.0 ppg.
— Titans gave up 27+ points in four of seven games (over 4-3).
— Despite that, Tennessee waxed KC 27-3 LW, an impressive beating.
— Last five weeks, Titans ran ball for 164.4 yards/game.
— Titans had 7 turnovers first three games, only two in last four.
— Tennessee has only three TD plays longer than 18 yards.
— Over is 14-5 in Tennessee’s last 19 road games.

— Colts covered five of their last six games.
— Indy lost 2 of 3 home games SU this season, beating Texans.
— Last four weeks, Colts outscored opponents 40-21 in first half.
— Last two games, Colts outscored opponents 38-6 in second half.
— Colts have 15 takeaways in last six games (+9)
— Last six years, Colts are 7-10-1 ATS in AFC South home games.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.

— In Week 3, Colts lost 25-16 at Tennessee, outgained 368-265.
— Indy lost that game despite being +3 in turnovers.
— Teams split last ten series games.
— Titans are 3-0 ATS in last three visits to Indianapolis.

LA Rams (6-1) @ Houston (1-6)
— Rams won last three games, scoring 26-38-28 points.
— Last three games, Rams scored 11 TD’s on 30 drives.
— Last three games, LA is +5 in turnovers.
— Over is 5-2 in Rams’ games.
— Last 11 years, Rams are 7-5 ATS as double digit favorites.
— Last four years, Rams are 5-8 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— NFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 ATS, 4-3 on road.

— Texans lost last six games, giving up 30.3 ppg.
— Last six games, Houston was outscored 109-17 in 2nd half.
— Houston covered two of three home games (losses by 15-3)
— Last four years, Texans are 5-5 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last four games, Texans are minus-7 in turnovers (10-3)
— Rookie QB’s struggle; they’re 9-21 ATS so far this season.
— First-time head coaches are 19-26 ATS this season.
— AFC South non-divisional dogs are 11-6 ATS, 4-4 at home.

— Rams won three of four series games.
— Rams won their two visits here, 38-13/33-27.

Cincinnati (5-2) @ NJ Jets (1-5)
— Cincinnati won four of its last five games.
— Bengals have had a TD play of 31+ yards in all seven games.
— Bengals averaged 8+ yards/pass attempt in 4 of last 5 games.
— Cincy outscored last four opponents 94-37 in 2nd half.
— Last seven years, Bengals are 7-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— Three of Cincy’s five wins were by 14+ points.
— Five of last six Bengal games stayed under the total.

— QB Wilson is out; rookie QB White expected to get first NFL start.
— Jets upset Tennessee at home, lost 25-6 (+6) to Patriots (1-1 ATS).
— Jets have been outscored 44-0 in first quarter, 106-20 in first half.
— Last three years, Jets 9-6 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last four years, Jets are 13-24 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last three Jet games went over the total.
— Rookie QB’s struggle; they’re 9-21 ATS so far this season.

— Cincinnati won last three series games, by 16-1-40 points.
— Bengals are 0-5 ATS in last five series games in Garden State.
— Jets held Bengals under 80 YR in last five meetings.

Pittsburgh (3-3) @ Cleveland (4-3)
— Steelers scored 17-10-17 points in losses, 23-27-23 in wins.
— Steelers ran for 147-119 yards last 2 games, averaged 55.3 first four games.
— Last five games, Steelers were outscored 70-39 in second half.
— Pitt split two road games, W23-16 @ Buffalo, L17-27 @ Green Bay.
— Last five years, Steelers are 11-4 ATS as road underdogs.
— Opponents have started nine drives in Pittsburgh territory.
— Steelers have started one drive in opposing territory.
— Four of five Steeler games stayed under the total.

— QB Mayfield is out; backup Keenum is 28-35 as an NFL starter.
— Browns gave up 32-47-37 points in losses, 21 or less in wins.
— Cleveland outscored foes 42-9 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Cleveland is 5-6 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite.
— Last three games, opponents converted 19-36 third down plays.
— Last three games, Browns were outscored 62-29 in 2nd half.
— Last seven years, Cleveland is 6-15 ATS in AFC North home games.

— Browns (+6) won playoff game 48-37 in Pittsburgh LY.
— Browns won three of last four series games, after a 2-17-1 series skid.
— Cleveland is +12 in turnovers, in last six series games.
— Steelers covered once in last four trips to the Dawg Pound.

San Francisco (2-4) @ Chicago (3-4)
— 49ers lost last four games, giving up 26.3 ppg.
— Thru six games, 49ers are minus-8 in turnovers.
— Last three games, SF converted 6-36 third down plays.
— Both their wins came on road (Lions/Eagles)
— Last five years, Niners are 5-5 ATS as road favorites.
— Last three years, 49ers are 12-7 ATS on road.
— 49ers had 8 plays of 20+ yards in opener, total of only 15 last five games.
— NFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 ATS, 4-3 on road.

— Chicago allowed 34-26-24-38 in losses, 17 or less in wins.
— All four of their losses this year were by 10+ points.
— Last four games, Bears ran ball for 153.5 yards/game.
— Chicago threw for more than 4.7 yards/attempt once in seven games.
— Chicago has been outscored 91-46 in second half of games.
— Last four years, Chicago is 5-6 ATS as home underdogs.
— Last three games, Bears converted 14-54 third down plays.
— Under is 5-0-1 in their last six games.
— NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-2 ATS.

— Teams split last eight series games.
— Underdogs won four of last five meetings SU.
— 49ers are 3-4 ATS in last seven trips to Chicago.

Jacksonville (1-5) @ Seattle (2-5)
— Jaguars snapped 20-loss skid in their last game.
— Jaguars are 8-2-1 ATS in last 11 post-bye games.
— Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS overall, with four losses by 10+ points.
— Jacksonville is already minus-10 in turnovers (2-12)
— Last 2+ years, Jacksonville is 13-19 ATS as underdogs.
— Jaguars converted 21 of 67 third down plays.
— Four of their last five games stayed under.

— Seattle is 0-3 at home for first time since 1992.
— Seahawks lost five of their last six games overall.
— Smith is 12-21 as NFL starter; 29 of those games were in 2013-14.
— Last four years, Seattle is 11-9-2 ATS as home favorites.
— Seattle has 33 plays of 20+ yards; they’ve given up 24.
— Last four games, opponents converted 11-51 on third down.
— Short week for Seattle, after 13-10 loss to Saints Monday night.

— Seahawks won four of last six series games.
— Jaguars are 0-3 ATS in last three trips to Seattle, losing by 28-41-9 points.

New England (3-4) @ LA Chargers (4-2)
— Patriots are 3-0 vs rookie QB’s, 0-4 vs everyone else.
— New England scored 25-29-54 last three games, after 17.8 ppg in first four.
— Patriots are +6 in turnovers in their wins, minus-6 in losses.
— Last three games, New England had 21 plays of 20+ yards.
— Last two games, Jones averaged 9.3/9.6 yards per pass attempt.
— Last three Patriot games went over the total.
— Last eight years, New England is 7-7 ATS as a road underdog.

— Chargers won three of last four games, scoring 35.5 ppg.
— Chargers were held to 17-6 points in their two losses.
— Bolts converted 36 of first 77 third down plays.
— Chargers allowed 186+ rushing yards in 4 of last 5 games.
— Bolts are 3-4-1 ATS as a favorite at SoFi Stadium.
— Five of six Charger games this year stayed under the total.
— Chargers covered four of their last five post-bye games.

— Patriots won last six series games, scoring 45-41 points in last two.
— New England was +14 in turnovers in those six games.
— Patriots are 4-1 ATS in last five road series games.

Washington (2-5) @ Denver (3-5)
— Washington lost 4 of last 5 games, giving up 29.3 ppg last 3 games.
— Washington has covered once in seven games this year.
— Last two games, Washington was outscored 31-3 in second half.
— Washington opponents converted 58-102 on third down (56.9%).
— Last 3+ years, Washington is 12-10-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last 2+ years, Washington is 8-16-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Four of last six Washington games went over the total.
— NFC East teams are 7-3 ATS in non-divisional road games.

— Denver lost last four games, outscored 61-20 in first half.
— Two of their three wins were against a rookie QB.
— Denver has one takeaway in last four games (-6).
— Last five years, Denver is 4-10-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Denver gave up 13 or less points in its wins, 25.3 ppg in losses.
— Five of seven Denver games stayed under the total.
— Broncos played on Thursday last week; extra time to rest/prep for this.

— Washington is 3-2 SU (4-1 ATS) in last five meetings.
— Washington lost 45-21/21-19 in last two visits to Denver.

Tampa Bay (6-1) @ New Orleans (4-2)
— Bucs gave up 29.3 ppg to veteran #1 QB’s (Prescott, Ryan, Stafford).
—.Bucs gave up 14.8 ppg to suspect/backup QB’s.
— Bucs won their last four games, scoring 32.5 ppg.
— Buccaneers have 28 TD’s on 75 drives this season.
— Last six games, Tampa Bay is +10 in turnovers.
— Last four games, opponents converted 9-37 on third down.
— Over is 4-2-1 in Tampa Bay games this season.
— Bucs outscored last three opponents 80-13 in first half.

— Short week for Saints after 13-10 win in Seattle Monday night.
— Saints ran 68 plays Monday; Kamara had 30 touches.
— New Orleans won three of its last four games overall.
— Underdogs won/covered four of their six games.
— Last six years, Saints were 11-7 ATS in NFC South home games.
— Under Payton, Saints are 9-3-1 ATS as home underdogs.
— New Orleans has 12 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 25.

— Saints won six of last eight series games.
— Bucs (+3) won playoff game 30-20 here LY.
— Tampa Bay is 4-7 ATS in last 11 games in New Orleans.

Dallas (5-1) @ Minnesota (2-3)
— Dallas is 6-0 ATS; their only loss was 31-29 at Tampa in Week 1.
— Cowboys scored 17 TD’s on their last 42 drives.
— Cowboys have 14 takeaways in five games (+7).
— Dallas has converted 35-75 third down plays.
— Cowboys scored defensive TD in three of last four games.
— Dallas has 30 plays of 20+ yards, but has allowed 31 of them.
— Over is 5-1 in Cowboys’ games this season.
— Dallas is 12-4 ATS in last sixteen post-bye games.

— Vikings won their last two games, by 2-6 points.
— Vikings are 16-4 ATS last 20 games as a home underdog.
— Minnesota averaged 7.3+ yards/pass attempt in 4 of last 5 games.
— Three of Vikings’ last four games stayed under the total.
— Minnesota is 10-12 last 22 games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Minnesota has been outscored 53-6 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Vikings are 3-9 ATS in last dozen post-bye games.

— Dallas won three of last four series games.
— Underdogs covered all four of those games.
— Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to the Twin Cities.

Monday’s game
NY Giants (2-5) @ Kansas City (3-4)
— Giants split last four games, after an 0-3 start.
— Three of their five losses are by 14+ points.
— Big Blue is 22-8 ATS last 30 games as a road underdog.
— Giants are 1-8 ATS last nine games vs AFC opponents.
— Giants have been outscored 58-12 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Opponents have started 8 drives in Giant territory (minus-5).
— NFC East teams are 7-3 ATS in non-divisional road games.

— KC lost four of its last six games.
— Mahomes got KO’d last week, later passed concussion test.
— Chiefs have given up 27+ points in six of seven games.
— KC didn’t score a TD last week (3 points/3 red zone drives)
— Chiefs turned ball over 17 times in last six games (-12)
— Chiefs are 0-3 ATS at home this season.
— KC has 27 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 35.
— AFC West home favorites are 3-6 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Giants won four of last five series games (only loss, 2013).
— Favorites covered last three series games played here.