Sunday 10/31/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Sunday's Best Bet HRN

Sunday’s 10th race from Santa Anita Park is the Grade 2, $200,000 Twilight Derby for three-year-olds traveling a mile and an eighth on the turf course (Post Time 8:10 p.m. EDT).

No. 2 SUBCONSCIOUS (6-1) ran well in all four turf routes and showed newfound versatility in a stalking victory vs. local optional claimers at one mile Oct. 2. He earned strong numbers last time and deserves a shot in the stakes ranks.

No. 8 Rock Your World (5-2) adds blinkers and is 2-for-2 on turf at Santa Anita. He always fires with Umberto Rispoli in the saddle and he figures to stalk and pounce.

No. 10 Beyond Brilliant (15-1) was excellent on the front end in an optional claiming turf route at Del Mar Sept. 6. Kent Desormeaux stays put and he might be the one to catch.

No. 6 Wootton Asset (12-1) exits an off the pace score in the slow early/fast late Virginia Derby (G3) at this distance. Mike Smith rides for Graham Motion and he rates a late look if the pace heats up.

I was not thrilled with the Del Mar Derby (G2), and five of these exit that heat. No. 1 Flashiest (6-1) was 2nd from post 13 that day, and he is on the hedge this time.

No. 4 Hudson Ridge (5-1) was the beaten chalk in the Del Mar Derby and he had an uncomfortable trip from the rail that day. Flavien Prat stays put and he won two races at this course/distance earlier this year.

Get my Expert Santa Anita Park picks for today’s races

Wagers:

No. 2 to Win

Exacta Box 2-8

Trifecta 2-8/1-2-4-6-8-10/1-6

Recent Best Bet Winners

Oct. 26 - My Girl Lexi/Teller To Sing Exacta ($33.20)
Oct. 27 - SPEITFUL SAM ($6.20), Exacta ($20.00)
Oct. 28 - Big Bobby/Big Brown Shoes/Seven Lilies Trifecta ($457.48)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ron GP Picks

Sunday, October 31, 2021
RACE 1:
4 WIND NINETY NINE is dropping to the $12,500
level, and adding blinkers, and recovering from a
troubled start (shut off) to finish a distant 4th vs
$20,000 maidens going 6 ½ furlongs in the slop. Ed
Plesa Jr, 24% with maidens making their 2nd start,
has Edgard Zayas handling the stretch-out to a mile.

6 HEAVEN’S TALE is stretching out to a mile and
making the usually fruitful 3rd start back from the layoff, after taking a positive step forward when he
finished an improved 3rd going 6 furlongs. Jeff Engler
is 16% with the stretch-out move.

7 TINTORERO is a candidate for a rebound performance after
following a well-meant 2nd at this level and distance
two starts back with a poor showing going 7 furlongs
last out. Antonio Sano has Gaddiel Martinez
handling the stretch out.
SELECTIONS: 4-6-7

RACE 2:
8 MIRACLE DRUG (IRE) is dropping a level on the
maiden scale after making a middle move to get the
lead before flattening out and finishing 5th in her
$35,000 career debut going 5 ½ furlongs on the
Tapeta. Saffie Joseph Jr, 23% with maidens making
their 2nd start has Edgard Zayas handling the
dropdown.

4 CURRENT CAUSE is another
dropping to the $25,000 level after rallying late to
finish 4th in front of Miracle Drug at the $35,000 level
last out.

3 SOLAR GIRL has her claiming tag cut in
half when she returns from the layoff moves to the
Tapeta, and turns back to 5 ½ furlongs, after
finishing a distant 3rd vs $50,000 maidens going 6 ½
furlongs on the GP main track during August. Edwin
Gonzalez will ride this half of the Saffie Joseph Jr
uncoupled entry.
SELECTIONS: 8-4-3

RACE 3:
1 BRAMBLE BERRY is turning back to 6 ½ furlongs,
and breaking from the rail again, after setting the pace
and holding on to defeat this level of competition
going seven-eighths of a mile. The daughter of
Brethren get 2nd-time blinkers by Kent Sweezey,
who is 23% winning consecutive races.

3 LET’S BE HONEST, a 2-time winner at the
distance (5-2-1-0), turns back after the pair of solid
performances vs optional claimers going a mile,
which includes the score 2 starts back, and the well-meant 2nd vs $16,000 starter optional claimers last
out.

5 GITANA is stretching out an additional half-furlong after shipping in from Delaware and dueling
for the lead throughout before getting nosed out at
the wire in a $35,000 conditioned claimer contested
at three-quarters of a mile. Rohan Crichton has
Emisael Jaramillo in the saddle.
SELECTIONS: 1-3-5

RACE 4:
4 MANNIX (IRE) will try to solve the Tapeta mystery
in his North American debut for trainer Mark Casse,
who is 5 for 16 (31%) over the local synthetic
surface. The son of Australia tries the Tapeta after
finishing 3rd in a trio of turf races during his summer
campaign in Ireland. The colt, working well at Palm
Meadows will have Edwin Gonzalez in the saddle.


7 PIONEER OF MEDINA is stretching out to a mile
& 70 yards with the breeding needed to handle both
the surface and the distance. Trainer Todd Pletcher
has the son of the Pioneer of the Nile working well at
Palm Beach Downs in preparation for the first start
since finishing 2nd in his 6-furlong debut on the
Monmouth main track.

6 TEPPER is a son of Candy Ride debuting for trainer Kelsey Danner with a series
of solid workouts showing over both the dirt and turf
courses at Palm Meadows. Note the barn is 20%
with horses debuting at a mile or more.
SELECTIONS: 4-7-6

RACE 5:
7 LYRICAL is dropping into this $6,250 ‘non-winners
of 2-lifetime’ claimer after finishing a distant 3rd to 6-
in-a-row winner Pretty Rachel in a $10,000 claimer
going a mile on a sealed sloppy track. Gilberto Zerpa
has Emisael Jaramillo handling the class relief.

2 LUNAR BLAST is stretching out after following his
$12,500 maiden victory at this mile distance with a
late-closing 3rd vs this caliber of competition going 7
furlongs. Rohan Crichton has Edgard Zayas
handling the stretch-out.

1 QUEEN DOMINA is
stretching out to a mile for the first time after rallying
to finish 2nd vs similar quality going 5 ½ furlongs. She
should be part of the early pace when stretching out
from the rail.
SELECTIONS: 5-2-1

RACE 6:
8 TITANIC ROSE is turning back to 7 furlongs after
tracking the pace and finishing 2nd vs similar quality
going a mile last out. The step up to the $16,000
level looks like a lateral move, at least on figures.

4 SHE IS ROYALTY is making her 3rd career start
after responding to both the dropdown and the
stretch-out to 7 furlongs, with a 3rd place finish -
behind next-out winner Shes Gifted – at this level
and distance.

6 BELLA MIURA is a daughter of
Classic Empire debuting for trainer Antonio Sano
with 8 workouts showing over the GP main track.
Edgard Zayas rides this interesting first-time starter.
SELECTIONS: 8-4-6

RACE 7:
6 LAST LEAF will shift her focus to the Tapeta after
highlighting both her class and versatility when she
followed her commanding $75,000 optional claiming
victory going 6 furlongs on a sealed sloppy track with
a victory on the turf in the 5-furlong Hollywood
Beach. Trainer Ron Spatz has Miguel Vazquez
trying her 3rd surface in as many starts.

4 KIT KELLER, a beautifully bred daughter of
Ghostzapper faces winners after holding on to win
her special weight career debut going 5 ½ furlongs
on the Laurel turf. Trainer Michael Stidham, 16%
with the turf to synthetic move, has Edgard Zayas
atop the Godolphin homebred.

3 RAPTUROUS is another switching surface after
vying for the lead early on, and then driving clear
through the stretch to win her $50,000 career debut
going 5 ½ furlongs on the dirt. Trainer Kathleen
O’Connell is 3 for 10 (30%) on the Tapeta
SELECTIONS: 6-4-3

RACE 8:
8 FAMOUS GENT moves to the Bobby Dibona barn
via the claim, and wheels back looking to make it 2
in a row at this level and distance on the Tapeta. The
barn, 22% with new claims, has Leonel Reyes
named to ride.

5 DREAM LINER (BRZ), now in the
Saffie Joseph Jr barn, the 5-year-old drops to the
$20,000 level on the Tapeta in the first race since
coming up empty on the turf in back-to-back $62,500
optional claimers before going to the bench last
December. The barn sports a 23% win-average with
both new additions to the shedrow, and the 180
days-plus layoff.

4 DILIGENT is hoping to get a
more suitable early pace setup after rallying to finish
3rd here at this level and distance last out. Ed Plesa
Jr has strong finisher, Edgard Zayas, at the controls.
SELECTIONS: 8-5-4

RACE 9:
4 GRACE’S DRAMA is stretching out to one on her
most accomplished distances (34-9-5-10) after
following the dated-claiming score going 7 furlongs,
with a 2nd place finish vs this level of opposition going
6 furlongs.

10 NATIONALIST, who crushed this
level of competition 3 starts back, drops after coming
up empty in consecutive races against tougher
competition. Rohan Crichton has Chantal
Sutherland atop the daughter of Prospective.

3 SHE TAKES HEART, 3
rd behind Grace’s Drama
when they competed at 7 furlongs in September,
renews the rivalry at a mile hoping to turn the tables.
Mauricio Fuentes has Marcos Meneses up.
SELECTIONS: 4-10-3

TODAY'S BEST BET: RACE 4 – 4 MANNIX (IRE)
TODAY'S LONGSHOT: RACE 9 – 4 GRACE’S DRAMA

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Expert Analysis
By Brad Free
BEST BET: Floral Essence (7th race)
First Race
1. Big Strike 2. Ready Jet Go 3. Bowl of Cherries
First post 12:30 for closing day of the Santa Anita fall meet. Del Mar opens on Wednesday. First-time starter ~BIG STRIKE^ gets the call n in this maiden-50 turf at five furlongs.
She has worked well from the gate, in company, and is bred to win early. Her sire Mr. Big gets 16 percent debut winners (all ages), her dam won her career debut and produced two
debut winners including Blake Heap-trained Jets to Brazil. Heap trains BIG STRIKE, who gets in light with an apprentice allowance and can come out firing. ~READY JET GO^
showed hints of ability both starts as a 2yo in 2020. She drops in for a tag for her comeback, and adds Lasix. ~BOWL OF CHERRIES^ is an eight-start maiden with five in-themoney finishes. She will get there someday.

Second Race
1. Bristol Bayou 2. Bye Bye Bertie 3. Sadie Bluegrass
~BRISTOL BAYOU^ returns to the surface and approximate distance of her two career wins. That is, a dirt sprint at Santa Anita. She ran well missing by less than a length last out
in a turf route that was her first start in five months. Off since that race in early September, her springtime speed suggests she may get a pressing trip forwardly placed. ~BYE BYE
BERTIE^ trounced a Cal-bred route and looms a contender cutting back to one turn. She is a seven-time winner who can run short or long. ~SADIE BLUEGRASS^ is comeback
speed on the rail. If she clears, she could be gone.

Third Race
1. Margot's Boy 2. Ready Soul 3. Red Storm Risen
The pace scenario benefits ~MARGOT'S BOY^, who could find himself setting an easy pace in a N2X turf otherwise void of speed. He nearly stole a similar turf race two back,
followed by a runner-up finish on dirt last out. In light with a seven-pound apprentice, 'BOY can lead wire to wire. If not, stablemate stretch-runners ~READY SOUL^ or ~RED
STORM RISEN^ could be along from the back of the pack. Both drop from Grade 2 races. 'SOUL finished in front of 'RISEN two starts back, but 'RISEN has more speed and
probably would get first crack at the top-choice pacesetter.

Fourth Race
1. Under the Stars 2. Awake At Midnyte 3. Adare Manor
~UNDER THE STARS^, sibling to G1 winner and 2012 Kentucky Derby runner-up Bodemeister, makes her debut with fast workouts typical for this stable. She has worked in
company, worked from the gate, drew outside and should fire first out. ~AWAKE AT MIDNYTE^ is a first-time starter with decent works and a win-early pedigree. Debut 2yos by
Nyquist have won at an above-average 19 percent rate. ~ADARE MANOR^, Bob Baffert-trained stablemate of the top choice, has worked heads-up in company with UNDER THE
STARS. Rail draw no benefit for 'MANOR.

Fifth Race
1. Johnny Podres 2. Mesut 3. Liar Liar
This main-oval turf sprint includes a handful of evenly matched contenders. ~JOHNNY PODRES^ gets the call based on consistent recent form in relatively fast races. In the money
all three starts this year including one win, he might benefit by the half-furlong shorter trip of this six-furlong race. The versatile gelding runs on the lead, or from behind. ~MESUT^
finished a close fifth in a G2 turf sprint last out; this starter allowance N3L is obviously easier. He will roll late. ~LIAR LIAR^ adds blinkers and goes route to sprint. BRIX returns
from a layoff of nearly nine months with established form on this course, while SILARDI is speed, and two-for-two on this course. He might be ranked too low by this handicapper.

Sixth Race
1. Medusa's Gaze 2. Aristeia 3. B'esame Me Mucho
Slim pickings in this maiden-20 route. The tepid call is 16-start maiden ~MEDUSA'S GAZE^, who finished in the money her last three starts and has enough tactical speed to be
forwardly placed. If she falters again, then 12-start maiden ~ARISTEIA^ could grind out the win. She missed by a head finishing third last out as the favorite in a similar low-level
maiden-claiming route and seems to have improved since she was claimed three back. ~B'ESAME ME MUCHO^ stretches out after a closing third in her comeback. She gets a
weight break with a five-pound apprentice, and should be on or near the lead running long for the first time.

Seventh Race
1. Floral Essence 2. Witch Moon 3. Momma Mocca
~FLORAL ESSENCE^, claimed from a runner-up finish in a similar maiden-50 turf route, should win first off the claim if she reproduces her last start, She ran a winning race. She
encountered minor trouble when a 90-1 backed up in front of her into the far turn, she steadied and recovered, kicked away in the lane, then got mowed down late while finishing
more than three lengths clear of third. If she stays the mile and one-eighth trip, 'ESSENCE should win with a pressing trip. If not, then closer ~WITCH MOON^ could get there.
She was overmatched last time in a maiden special-weight; this is the level at which she was claimed from a close fourth two back. 'MOON will rally late. ~MOMMA MOCCA^,
stablemate of the top choice, drops in for a tag first start in two months. She "won" a maiden-32 turf route last fall but was disqualified for interference.

Eighth Race
1. Handy Dandy 2. Con On the Run 3. Town Boy
Class-drop second-time starters ~HANDY DANDY^ and ~CON ON THE RUN^ top this maiden-50 sprint for 2yos. The call is 'DANDY, who chased the pace and backed up first
out. But that maiden special-weight was significantly tougher. The winner Corniche returned to win a Grade 1 and is among the early favorites for the BC Juvenile next weekend at
DMR. 'DANDY posted a series of works since, meets easier and switches to the stable's main rider. CON ON THE RUN worked well into his debut two months ago, started as the
favorite, but surrendered after pressing the pace. That was turf, now he moves to dirt and meets easier. Like the top choice, 'RUN is expected to improve second out. ~TOWN BOY^
goes up the ladder, first off the claim following a runner-up finish in a maiden-32. His stable has been rolling.

Ninth Race
1. Mac Daddy Too 2. Vantastic 3. C Falls
Although none of the first five downhill turf sprints this meet were won by the pacesetter, front-runner ~MAC DADDY TOO^ gets the call in this N1X hillside scramble that is
conspicuously light on pace. The 3yo makes his first start against older, and first since February, he has been working well at San Luis Rey Downs and should come back firing.
Gate to wire? ~VANTASTIC^ is two-for-three since he was gelded. He ran well on the hill early in his career. He moves up from a starter allowance win, goes route to sprint, and
will motor late. He was listed as a vet scratch Oct. 2. ~C FALLS^ runs two turns as if he will appreciate this six and a half-furlong trip. He is a front-runner in routes, those type
historically do well on the hill. A sharp miler up in class off a win, he is a definite contender. BEDROCK will rally late for a highly productive trainer-jockey combo. His figures put
him in the hunt.

Tenth Race
1. Subconscious 2. None Above the Law 3. Cathkin Peak
~SUBCONSCIOUS^ gets tested for class in this turf stakes for 3yos, the son of Tapit might be up to the challenge based on two starts since he was gelded. He won both including
a visually impressive N1X last out despite an imperfect trip. He raced off the pace, lost ground much of the race, rolled home in 23.03 seconds and won going away. Sharp. He is
learning to ration his speed, and could get a great trip tucked just off the pace. With a more economical ground-saving trip, he can spring a minor upset. ~NONE ABOVE THE
LAW^ does nothing but win. Turf, dirt, short, long, no matter for the 6-for-14 Cal-bred who beat several of these in the G2 Del Mar Derby. A four-time stakes winner, he will rally
late. ~CATHKIN PEAK^ looms the longshot knockout off a brutal trip when fourth in the DMR Derby. He was rank and unsettled early, lost position on the far turn, was blocked in
deep stretch, then finished fast and galloped out big past the wire. He was 46-1 that race, and is likely to start at high odds here. ROCK YOUR WORLD, Santa Anita Derby winner
in April, returns to the grass course on which he scored a pair of pace-pressing wins in winter. Blinkers on, he probably is the one to catch if he can gain separation from front-runner
BEYOND BRILLIANT

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE
Gulfstream Park - Race 8

$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5


Claiming $20,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $28,000 • Post: 4:34P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $16,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. INDY LYON is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * INDY LYON: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. M R MATUSCHEK: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). DREAM LINER (BRZ): Horse racing off a layoff of 9 0+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
2
INDY LYON
10/1

7/2
6
MR MATUSCHEK
8/1

5/1
5
DREAM LINER (BRZ)
4/1

7/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
2
INDY LYON
2

10/1
Front-runner
96

94

95.4

84.6

78.6
6
MR MATUSCHEK
6

8/1
Stalker
102

97

70.0

93.6

87.6
8
FAMOUS GENT
8

5/2
Alternator/Stalker
88

87

96.7

82.5

72.5
5
DREAM LINER (BRZ)
5

4/1
Alternator/Stalker
98

100

74.5

85.0

75.0
1
STUNNING BABY
1

20/1
Alternator/Stalker
87

88

51.9

59.6

47.1
9
MR. AXEL
9

5/1
Alternator/Trailer
89

90

83.4

67.3

56.8
3
NEW YORK STYLE
3

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
88

90

74.4

72.0

60.0
4
DILIGENT
4

7/2
Alternator/Non-contender
90

82

69.2

40.4

30.4
7
PAPA HONOR
7

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
77

72

43.6

56.9

45.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Belmont Park - Race #9 - Post: 4:52pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 EL VEINTICUATRO (ML=7/2)
#9 EMPIRE STATION (ML=4/1)


EL VEINTICUATRO - A big drop in class rating points from his Oct 10th race at Belmont Park. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this horse the edge. I like to play this handicapping theory, a racer coming back off a strong effort within the last 30 days. A repeat of that recent performance on Oct 10th where he earned a speed figure of 64 looks lofty enough to triumph in this affair. Another way to assign class is earnings per start. This mount has the topmost in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish line. EMPIRE STATION - Taking a trip to a lower class level; has the capability to make his presence felt. Cancel was aboard this gelding in the last race and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. This horse didn't run well on a track listed as good in his last race at Belmont Park. You probably should disregard that performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 WORKINGMAN'S DUDE (ML=3/1), #7 MRTANDROSEYSBOY (ML=5/1),

WORKINGMAN'S DUDE - Never really did much at all last time out on Oct 10th. Hard to wager on in today's race. The Brain always warns me to keep away from horses in short distance events that haven't finished in the money in sprint races lately. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a vulnerable contender. There's zip, speed, and more speed in this event. Doesn't look too promising for this horse. MRTANDROSEYSBOY - This colt's sire just doesn't pop with 1st time starters.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 EL VEINTICUATRO is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 68

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 8 B'ESAME ME MUCHO 3/1

# 1 SLEW SOUTH 10/1

# 6 MEDUSA'S GAZE 7/2

I think B'ESAME ME MUCHO is a very good choice. Must be given a shot based on the very good speed figure earned in the last outing. SLEW SOUTH - Must be given a chance here on the basis of the figures in the speed section alone. This horse is highly ranked this group of horses in this race in earnings per start at the distance/surface. MEDUSA'S GAZE - Will most likely come out solid - I have liked the way this filly has moved quickly to the front end recently. Could beat this field given the 64 speed rating put up in her last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:40pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,900 Class Rating: 70

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 A J'S MOJO (ML=4/1)


A J'S MOJO - The October 18th contest at Mountaineer Park was at a class level of (79). Dropping down the class ladder considerably, so he should be in a good spot to take this race. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (fifth). Should rebound in this event, with some decent odds.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 REJUVENATE (ML=6/5), #2 EVERGLIDE DRIVE (ML=3/1), #6 BLAME THE KIDS (ML=8/1),

REJUVENATE - You think this horse is going to be victorious just because he's always close. Just doesn't win frequently. There may be a set back in today's event, after the bang up job in the last race. EVERGLIDE DRIVE - Not easy to bet on this horse this time out. Make him show you something in a short distance contest before you play him in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. BLAME THE KIDS - Difficult to bet on this vulnerable equine in today's event. Make him show you something in a sprint event before you play him in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. This horse just hasn't looked fit lately.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #1 A J'S MOJO on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with 8

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - SA - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 CASHLINGS 10/1

# 7 SPEEDY TRIP 2/1

# 4 KNOCKOUT BERT 9/5

I have to consider CASHLINGS in here and is a very good value wager given the line. He has recorded very good figs under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this field. This animal must be played at the expected big odds. SPEEDY TRIP - Has run solidly when racing a dirt sprint race. Delia has him trained strongly to break sharply out of the starting gate. KNOCKOUT BERT - Is tough not to look at based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been strong - 83 avg - of late. Have to wager on this money-making rider and conditioner tandem.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs
PURCHASE

10/31/21, CD, Race 11, 6.06 ET
10/31/21,CD,11,6F [Dirt] 1:07:03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $120,000 (includes up to $56,500 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 119 lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For Less Than $50,000).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI
100.0000 9 Eclipsed 6/1 Graham J Desormeaux J. Keith SEC 24 54.17 1.70/$1
099.3975 5 Old Pho 6/1 Hernandez C J Stall. Jr. Albert M. F 205 29.76 0.90/$1
098.2723 3 Beautiful Empire 5/1 Leparoux J R Casse Mark E. 205 29.76 0.90/$1
098.0567 12 Firewolves 4/1 Garcia M Cox Brad H. W 93 43.01 1.21/$1
097.9498 14 Parlance 4/1 Santana. Jr. R Asmussen Steven M. L 205 29.76 0.90/$1
097.6105 4 Promises to Dance 5/1 Geroux F Cox Brad H. J 205 29.76 0.90/$1
096.4505 7 Ain't Broke 8/1 Gutierrez R Calhoun W. Bret 205 29.76 0.90/$1
096.4505 10 Aquila Moon 8/1 Gaffalione T Stewart Dallas 205 29.76 0.90/$1
095.9151 6 Marissa's Lady 10/1 Bejarano R Morey William E. 205 29.76 0.90/$1
095.9151 13 Elle of the Ball 10/1 Hernandez. Jr. B J Sharp Joe 205 29.76 0.90/$1
095.3797 8 Liscolvin 12/1 Hernandez. Jr. B J Romans Dale L. 205 29.76 0.90/$1
095.3797 2 Bird Empress 12/1 Talamo J Casse Norm W. 205 29.76 0.90/$1
094.8443 1 Turn Up Da Jukebox 20/1 Lanerie C J Peitz Daniel C. 25 48.00 1.34/$1
094.5766 11 La Neblina 30/1 Landeros C Humphries Thomas 205 29.76 0.90/$1
Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 35.48, ROI 1.05/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.6025
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt MdnMClm] Best Speed -with-
[Dirt MdnMClm] First Race After 45 Days Off

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

They just played in the rain and the wind on Monday night and suffered another loss with the very limited Geno Smith at the helm. So, Seattle is now just 1 win better than their opponent today, as the Seahawks are 2-5 on the year and Jacksonville stands at 1-5 and fresh off their first win of the season and a bye-week to boot.

The Jaguars had lost 20 games in a row prior to their London win over Miami and while Trevor Lawrence is already better than his counterpart Geno Smith, this is a spot where I feel backing the home team is going to pay off minus the field goal.

Seattle's defense stood tall in their 13-10 Monday night home loss and the fact they will be getting a rookie quarterback in their backyard should bode well for another stingy defensive effort from Pete Carroll's stop unit.

This is a long trip for Jacksonville to be making and while I hold no illusions that the limited Geno Smith is going to lead his team to a blowout win today, I do think being at home on this short week is a good spot for Seattle to get "healthy" at the expense of a Jags team who have lost by double-digits in 4 of their 5 setbacks already this season.

It won't be pretty, but it will be a win - and a cover for Seattle this afternoon.

1* SEATTLE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gus Augustine

The New England Patriots may have gotten a big performance from rookie quarterback Mac Jones, but they go from that 54-13 shellacking over the New York Jets, to a road tilt at the best team in the AFC West, the Los Angeles Chargers.

And New England arrives at SoFi Stadium mired in ATS skids of 2-5 on the road and 1-10 after an ATS cover.

As spectacular as Jones was last week, is as bad as it could get against the Bolts, who rank ninth in the league in allowing 6.1 net yards per pass attempt and are tied for 10th in the league with 6 interceptions.

The Jets offer quarterback pressure on 24.9% of opposing quarterbacks dropbacks. The Chargers pressure 27.8% of dropbacks - sixth-most in the league. Los Angeles' defense is also producing a turnover 14.5% of the opposition's possessions - 10th highest in the league.

Well rested, I'd rather bank on Los Angeles to keep pace with the Las Vegas Raiders, who are one-half game ahead of the AFC West pack and on a bye week. And I'd certainly rather bank on Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who has three or more TD passes and a 105+ QB rating in three of the past four. Herbert passed for 209 yards in his last meeting with the Patriots, but is much better since then, and has 620 yards passing and eight TDs (7 pass, 1 rush) vs. 0 interceptions with a 115.3 rating in his past two at home

The Chargers - who are in on ATS runs of 6-1 against AFC foes, 4-1 after a bye week and 8-2 overall - will get the double-digit win.

1* CHARGERS