Service Plays Saturday 10/30/21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stevewins (8-4 Last Saturday)

Single Plays & 12 Team College Football Regulator Parlay (+4897)

1. Buffalo -6.5 -240
2. Cincinnati-20.5 -205
3. Pittsburgh-2.5 -230
4. UCF -4 -230
5. Iowa State ML -285
6. Florida State +17.5 -278
7. Georgia -7 -250
8. Ole Miss +10.5 -245
9. Oklahoma State -20.5 -295
10. SMU +8.5 -250
11. Ohio State -8 -315
12. Virginia +11 -265

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Banks

10* CFB Conf Game of the Year! 4-0 GOY Run!

Time:*Saturday, October 30, 12:00 pm ET

Bet Type:*Point Spread

Pick:*Cincinnati -24.5 (-110) (Play MGM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers

SAT CFB GAME OF THE YEAR (THE BIG ONE!)

Time:*Saturday, October 30, 04:00 pm ET

Pick:*Wake Forest -16 (-110) (BetRivers)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

5% Cincinnati -24'

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PickersMX

Lady Pickers
200 Dimes NCAAF
Cincinnati-26

La Barba
150 Dimes NCAAF
Wake Forest -16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gambling God Sports Picks

ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE SOCCER
OXFORD UNITED

College Football
Northwestern +7.5

College Football
Texas +3

NBA
DETROIT -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Handicapper King

TURKEY SUPER LIGA
ALTAY

College Football
RICE MONEYLINE

College Football
BYU MONEYLINE

freeplay College Football Indiana +4.5

[Player1]

World Worst Picker
Wisconsin

We take:
Iowa

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lenny Stevens

---

20* Rutgers
20* Ohio St
10 Kentucky
10 ND
10 Stanford

[dawggy]

OSKEIM SPORT

Saturday

1 Star Investment


North Texas (+2.5) (-105) over Rice


Analysis: My math model actually favors North Texas by 2.33 points in this inter-state rivalry and the Mean Green fall into a very strong 29-9 ATS statistical profile indicator of mine that invests on certain road underdogs with good rushing attacks following a game in which they outrushed their opponent by 150 yards or more. North Texas also applies to a 41-14 ATS situation that backs certain teams with above-average rushing attacks in Game 7 (or later) if they allowed 100 or fewer rushing yards in their last game.


North Texas enters off a competitive 35-26 loss to Liberty in which the Mean Green led 20-7 in the second quarter and easily covered the spread as 21-point road underdogs. North Texas finished with better numbers in several important categories, including Offensive Success Rate (42% to 33%), Standard Down Success Rate (44% to 36%) and total yards (463 to 335; excludes garbage time).


The Mean Green's defensive front seven dominated the line of scrimmage, posting six sacks, eight tackles for loss and nine quarterback hurries. North Texas lost two turnovers and the Flames had a non-offensive score that ultimately determined the outcome.


Rice is coming off a shocking 30-24 upset win over UAB as a 24-point underdog. However, the final score does not reflect the realities of the game as the Owls were outgained 7.9 yards per play to 5.1 yards per play and finished minus-81 in total yards after excluding garbage time. UAB had a 21% Explosive Run rate and averaged 8.8 yards per rush after the first two yards (Hi-Lite YPR).


North Texas possesses an underrated stop unit that ranks 37th in the nation in success rate (39%) and 19th in standard down success rate (41%). The Mean Green's defensive line boasts an 8% sack rate (40th in FBS) and a 13% Havoc rating and should have success overpowering a terrible Rice offensive line that is 121st in success rate (78%) and 120th in sack rate (12.5%).


The Mean Green's offensive line is ranked 38th in the country in success rate (84%) and 24th in preventing havoc (8%) and should dominate the trenches against a Rice defensive line ranked 124th in Havoc (7%) and 103rd in success rate (84%). Finally, I like backing underdogs with a strong ground attack and the Mean Green fit the bill, ranking 32nd in yards per rush attempt (5.8), 40th in explosive rush percentage (12.8) and 54th in EPA/Rush (0.20). With Rice standing at just 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite, grab the points with the Mean Green and invest with confidence.


Injury News: Rice starting quarterback Jake Constantine is listed as questionable.


Charlotte (+18) (-110) over Western Kentucky


Analysis: Western Kentucky's explosive offense is led by quarterback Bailey Zappe, a transfer from Houston Baptist who has thrown for 3,014 yards in seven games this season. The Hilltoppers should be able to move up and down the field with relative ease against a Charlotte defense that is ranked 121st in the nation in EPA/Play (0.33) and 105th in EPA/Pass (0.47). However, Charlotte is extremely well-coached and possesses an underrated offense that ranks in the top 50 nationally in success rate (45%, 48th), standard down success rate (51%, 39th) and EPA/Play (0.29, 33rd).


The 49ers potent aerial attack is led by quarterback Chris Reynolds, whose 80.7 passing grade from Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks 27th in the country. Charlotte's receiving duo of Victor Tucker and Grant Dubose rank second and tenth, respectively, in PFF receiving grade among Conference-USA receivers. The 49ers offense ranks in the top 25 in EPA per pass (0.50) and passing success rate (50%).


What makes backing the road underdog appealing in this contest is the explosiveness of Charlotte's offense. The 49ers rank 37th in overall explosive percentage (15%), including 27th in both explosive rush percentage (13.6) and explosive pass percentage (16.4%). Charlotte is capable of scoring in a hurry, especially against a pathetic Western Kentucky defense that ranks 109th in explosive percentage overall (16%), including 105th in explosive passing percentage (15.7). Reynolds will have all day to find receivers downfield against a Western Kentucky defensive line ranked 128th in havoc rate (6%) and 109th in sack rate (4.1%).


Finally, my math model favors Western Kentucky by just 14.7 points in this game and the Hilltoppers are 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 games as home favorites and 2-7 ATS in their previous nine October affairs. Grab the points with Charlotte and invest with confidence.


1 Star Investment

West Virginia (+7) (-110) over Iowa State

Analysis: Iowa State enters off an emotional 24-21 win over previously-undefeated Oklahoma State in a game that was a toss-up from a statistical standpoint. The Cyclones were actually outgained 6.1 yards per play to 5.7 yards per play and their ground game was held to just 3.1 yards per carry on 29 attempts. My math model only favors Iowa State by 5.49 points in this game and the Cyclones find themselves in a brutal letdown (season-defining home win over Oklahoma St.)/look-ahead situation (Texas on deck).



Despite last week's struggles, Iowa State possesses a potent ground attack that is averaging 170 rushing yards per game at 5.0 yards per carry against teams that would combine to allow 3.9 yards per rush attempt to a mediocre offense. However, the Cyclones' offensive line has been below-average on a national scale in several key categories:

Iowa State's Offensive Line Metrics (Per Football Outsiders)


87th in average line yards (2.54)
75th in standard downs line yards (2.57)
89th in power success rate (64.3%)
105th in stuff rate (21.4%)

West Virginia's front seven is more than capable of containing the Cyclones' ground game. The Mountaineers are allowing just 3.5 yards per rush play to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yards per rush play against a mediocre defense. Per Football Outsiders, West Virginia's defensive line ranks 33rd in the nation in adjusted line yards (2.43), 17th in standard downs line yards (2.20), 25th in passing downs line yards (2.45), 18th in stuff rate (22.6%), 31st in sack rate (8.1%) and 13th in passing downs sack rate (12.5%).

West Virginia has played a significantly more difficult schedule, including road games at Oklahoma and Baylor (who are a combined 14-1 this season). The Mountaineers have suffered three losses by one possession (4.0 points per game average) and, as a result, are undervalued by the betting market. Meanwhile, four of Iowa State's five wins this season have come against Northern Iowa (FCS), UNLV (0-7), Kansas (1-6) and Kansas State (4-3).


With West Virginia standing at 7-1-1 ATS in its past nine home games, grab the points with the Mountaineers and invest with confidence.



2 Star Investment

Mississippi State (+1.5) (-110) over Kentucky

Analysis: The wrong team is favored in this game as my math model favors Mississippi State by 2.0 points and the home team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the past seven meetings in this series. Kentucky falls into a very negative 14-41 ATS system of mine that invests against road teams following a conference road loss versus an opponent off a double-digit win. The Wildcats also apply to a 54-114 ATS situation that dates back to 2010 and fades teams that allowed 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game versus teams off a game in which they outgained their opponent by 125 or more total yards in competitively-priced games (i.e. +3 to -3).



Kentucky's run-oriented offense will struggle to move the chains against a stout Mississippi front seven that has been 0.8 yards per rush play better than average this season (3.4 yards per rush play to teams that would combine to average 4.2 yards per rush play against a mediocre defense). Mississippi State ranks 9th in the nation in rushing defense (92.7 yards per game), 3rd in first downs defense (99) and 35th in third-down conversion percentage defense (.347). Per Football Outsiders, the Bulldogs' defensive line ranks in the top 30 in average line yards (2.40, 29th), standard downs line yards (2.30, 26th) and stuff rate (22.0%, 25th).


Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops, who is the longest-tenured coach in the SEC outside of Nick Saban, deserves a lot of credit for the job he has done in Lexington. The Wildcats are on pace to win ten games for the first time since 1977 (Stoops led the Wildcats to a 10-win season in 2018, but that included a bowl win). However, four of Kentucky's wins this season have come against Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri, UT-Chattanooga (FCS) and South Carolina. The Wildcats' only decent win this season is against Florida in which they were outgained by +144 yards. was fortunate to beat Florida The Wildcats secured their sixth win on October 9 against an injury-ravaged LSU team that has been dealing with on and off-the-field turmoil all season.


Mississippi State's strength of schedule is more compelling (includes win over Texas A&M) and the Bulldogs have suffered two losses by a combined five points, including a 31-29 defeat against Memphis in which they finished with a 26-12 first down advantage and a 468-246 total yard edge. Memphis benefitted from a 49-yard fumble return touchdown and a questionable 94-yard punt return touchdown that resulted from two officiating mistakes. With Mississippi State standing at 25-9 ATS in its last 34 home games versus teams with a winning road mark, grab the inflated number with the Bulldogs and invest with confidence.


2 Star Investment

Virginia (+3) (-115/-120) over BYU


Note: Virginia is a 2 Star investment at +3 or better and becomes a 1 Star investment at +1.5 to +2.5 points.


Analysis: Bronco Mendenhall returns to Provo for the first time since becoming the head coach at Virginia. During Mendenhall's tenure at BYU (2005-2015), the Cougars went to eleven straight bowl games and compiled the second-most wins in program history. There is no question that the veteran coach had this game circled on his calendar and the Cavaliers arrive with a potent offense that has scored 30-plus points in each of its last four games (4-0 SU & ATS). Virginia's attack is led by the nation's leading passer, Brennan Armstrong, who has thrown for 3,220 yards with a 23-6 TD-INT ratio.


Virginia's offense is ranked 25th in the nation in success rate (47%), 17th in EPA/Play (0.33), 14th in yards per play (7.09) and 13th in explosive percentage (18.0). The Cavaliers can also move the chains on the ground, ranking 38th in yards per rush attempt (5.7), 20th in explosive rush percentage (15.0) and 9th in Hi-Lite YPR (6.0). The Cavaliers' offensive line has done an excellent job providing Armstrong with time to throw, ranking 9th in offensive line success rate (87%) and 18th in preventing havoc (8%).


The Cavaliers are No. 25 in yards per game margin, No. 32 in scoring margin and have eclipsed 40 points four times this season. BYU is 4-0 versus Pac-12 opposition this season but was upset by Boise State 26-17 as a 6.5-point underdog, lost to Baylor (38-24) and had to stop a two-point conversion attempt by Washington State in last week's 21-19 win. The Cougars have fallen short of market expectations in three consecutive games and barely escaped with an eight-point win over South Florida as a 24-point home favorite last month.


Finally, my math model favors Virginia by 1.13 points in this game and BYU's home field advantage has been overvalued over the last three seasons (despite the altitude). With BYU standing at just 3-5 SU and 2-5-1 ATS versus ACC foes, grab the points with the live road underdog and invest with confidence.


2 Star Investment


Texas (+3) (-115/-120) over Baylor


Analysis: My math model favors Texas by 1.71 points in this game and the Longhorns apply to a very strong 33-8 ATS system of mine that invests on certain teams averaging 8.3 or more yards per pass attempt in competitively-priced games (+3 to -3) versus an opponent with a mediocre pass defense. This situation has covered the spread by seven or more points in 15 of the 31 games and is 2-0 ATS this season.


Both teams enter off a bye week but the Bears are a money-burning 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a week of rest. The host is just 4-9 ATS in the past thirteen meetings in this series and 1-6 ATS when playing with rest. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 7-1 SU and ATS following an upset loss and the Longhorns have won five of the previous six clashes with Baylor (4-2 ATS).


Baylor is 6-1 this season but the Bears' have benefitted from playing an extremely easy schedule that included Texas State, Texas Southern (FCS), and Kansas. The Bear's 31-29 win over Iowa State was misleading in that they were outgained by nearly 200 yards in that game. The value rests squarely with Texas and I expect Sarkisian to put together a game plan that will deliver a win for the Longhorns. Grab the points and invest with confidence.







Saturday

1 Star Investment


North Texas (+2.5) (-105) over Rice


Analysis: My math model actually favors North Texas by 2.33 points in this inter-state rivalry and the Mean Green fall into a very strong 29-9 ATS statistical profile indicator of mine that invests on certain road underdogs with good rushing attacks following a game in which they outrushed their opponent by 150 yards or more. North Texas also applies to a 41-14 ATS situation that backs certain teams with above-average rushing attacks in Game 7 (or later) if they allowed 100 or fewer rushing yards in their last game.


North Texas enters off a competitive 35-26 loss to Liberty in which the Mean Green led 20-7 in the second quarter and easily covered the spread as 21-point road underdogs. North Texas finished with better numbers in several important categories, including Offensive Success Rate (42% to 33%), Standard Down Success Rate (44% to 36%) and total yards (463 to 335; excludes garbage time).


The Mean Green's defensive front seven dominated the line of scrimmage, posting six sacks, eight tackles for loss and nine quarterback hurries. North Texas lost two turnovers and the Flames had a non-offensive score that ultimately determined the outcome.


Rice is coming off a shocking 30-24 upset win over UAB as a 24-point underdog. However, the final score does not reflect the realities of the game as the Owls were outgained 7.9 yards per play to 5.1 yards per play and finished minus-81 in total yards after excluding garbage time. UAB had a 21% Explosive Run rate and averaged 8.8 yards per rush after the first two yards (Hi-Lite YPR).


North Texas possesses an underrated stop unit that ranks 37th in the nation in success rate (39%) and 19th in standard down success rate (41%). The Mean Green's defensive line boasts an 8% sack rate (40th in FBS) and a 13% Havoc rating and should have success overpowering a terrible Rice offensive line that is 121st in success rate (78%) and 120th in sack rate (12.5%).


The Mean Green's offensive line is ranked 38th in the country in success rate (84%) and 24th in preventing havoc (8%) and should dominate the trenches against a Rice defensive line ranked 124th in Havoc (7%) and 103rd in success rate (84%). Finally, I like backing underdogs with a strong ground attack and the Mean Green fit the bill, ranking 32nd in yards per rush attempt (5.8), 40th in explosive rush percentage (12.8) and 54th in EPA/Rush (0.20). With Rice standing at just 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite, grab the points with the Mean Green and invest with confidence.


Injury News: Rice starting quarterback Jake Constantine is listed as questionable.


Charlotte (+18) (-110) over Western Kentucky


Analysis: Western Kentucky's explosive offense is led by quarterback Bailey Zappe, a transfer from Houston Baptist who has thrown for 3,014 yards in seven games this season. The Hilltoppers should be able to move up and down the field with relative ease against a Charlotte defense that is ranked 121st in the nation in EPA/Play (0.33) and 105th in EPA/Pass (0.47). However, Charlotte is extremely well-coached and possesses an underrated offense that ranks in the top 50 nationally in success rate (45%, 48th), standard down success rate (51%, 39th) and EPA/Play (0.29, 33rd).


The 49ers potent aerial attack is led by quarterback Chris Reynolds, whose 80.7 passing grade from Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranks 27th in the country. Charlotte's receiving duo of Victor Tucker and Grant Dubose rank second and tenth, respectively, in PFF receiving grade among Conference-USA receivers. The 49ers offense ranks in the top 25 in EPA per pass (0.50) and passing success rate (50%).


What makes backing the road underdog appealing in this contest is the explosiveness of Charlotte's offense. The 49ers rank 37th in overall explosive percentage (15%), including 27th in both explosive rush percentage (13.6) and explosive pass percentage (16.4%). Charlotte is capable of scoring in a hurry, especially against a pathetic Western Kentucky defense that ranks 109th in explosive percentage overall (16%), including 105th in explosive passing percentage (15.7). Reynolds will have all day to find receivers downfield against a Western Kentucky defensive line ranked 128th in havoc rate (6%) and 109th in sack rate (4.1%).


Finally, my math model favors Western Kentucky by just 14.7 points in this game and the Hilltoppers are 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 games as home favorites and 2-7 ATS in their previous nine October affairs. Grab the points with Charlotte and invest with confidence.

[dawggy]

BUSTER SPORT


Game: (195) Mississippi at (196) Auburn
Date/Time: Oct 30 2021 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5 units
Play: Auburn -130

BONUS OFFER: Get 3 days of All Access with Buster for just $29 (Reg. $49) using coupon code BUSTER29 (Click Here to Redeem)

Great spot for the Tigers here as they play an Ole Miss club that has a great offense but the defense has something to be desired. The Tigers are home off the bye week and that is HUGE for this club who looked really good beating Arkansas last time out. In that game they dealt with dual-threat QB KJ Jefferson and although Jefferson had a decent day the defense did enough to win the day. Today they deal with dual-threat QB Matt Corral and he may be even more important to this Ole Miss offense.
However, we believe this Auburn defense at home will be able to slow down this powerful 3rd ranked offense of Ole Miss, especially with an extra week to prepare. This will be a great matchup with these two junior QB’s as Bo Nix has quietly had a very nice year. This game will come down to the defense in our opinion and for us, it is not close as Auburn comes here ranked 40th and the Rebels are ranked 100th. What is really intriguing about Ole Miss defensive ranking is that they had a great game against LSU and still sit 100th.
I believe everyone gets my point. We will not kid ourselves and think that Auburn can shut down this powerful offense totally, that will not be the case. We do believe that the Auburn offense which is pretty good themselves ranked 31st in the nation, might be able to score at will today. Getting this Rebel offense on the road for Auburn is also HUGE for this game. There will be 87,451 screaming crazy fans at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday night and that is another reason why this home club will be a dangerous team for the Rebels to face. Last year Auburn went into Oxford and beat the Rebels 35-28. Auburn in fact has won the last 5 years in this matchup and number 6 will be tonight. So let’s get the job done with the Auburn Tigers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SportsBook Breakers

Ohio State-18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

totals4u

2021 College Football Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Michigan/Michigan State over 50 1/2



Early College Football Bonus Winners
Iowa/Wisconsin under 36 1/2
Miami-Florida/Pittsburgh over 61 1/2
Texas/Baylor over 61 1/2
Cincinnati/Tulane under 62

[Player1]

Big Al McMordie
4* Houston PK, 7:00 pm
3* Iowa +3.5, Noon
3* Oklahoma -19, 3:30 pm
3* Florida Atlantic -10.5, 6:00 pm
1* Pittsburgh -9, Noon
1* Rutgers -1.5, Noon
1* Marshall -21.5, 3:30 pm
1* Clemson -9, 3:30 pm
1* Mississippi St -1, 7:00 pm

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TOMMY BRUNSON

Max Wager
100 DIME
Bankroll Builder Lock

The Pick: My 100 Dime play is the Miami-Florida Hurricanes