Saturday 11/6/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-05-2021, 11:48 PM

Quick Picks for November 6, 2021 BREEDERS CUP DAY #2

Belmont Park (NYRA)
Race #1- #4 TRIPLE ELVIS; #6 PROVOCATEUR; #2 GRAPHIC DETAIL
Race #2- #4 LOOKIN TO FLY; #16 ELECTRIC YOUTH; #5 PROPER GRAMMAR
Race #3- #2 MISS MARISSA; #1 JILTED BRIDE; #5 GIBBERISH
Race #4- #4 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN; #5 RINALDI; #8 CITY MAN
Race #5- #11 CHASING CARA; #3 UNCLE’S GEM; #12 GET THE CANDY
Race #6- #1 I LOVE JAXSON; #6 BIG MOUNTAIN; #5 SICILIA MIKE
Race #7- #1 SHAD NATION; #9 MISTHAVEN; #4 MISCHIEVOUS KISS
Race #8- #4 BLUE GATOR; #6 GOLD PANDA; #5 MORE GRAYTFUL
Race #9- #3 MYSTIC EYES; #7 GAL IN A RUSH; #6 THE CLUB
Race #10- #16 WICK LOVES A FIGHT; #12 UNINVITED GUEST; #11 WICKED FAST

Charles Town Racing
Race #1- #2 KEEN MACHINE; #4 JACKIE THE JOKER; #6 HOLLY’S PERSUASION
Race #2- #6 FONDA ROMANA; #7 ALGODONAL; #1 BOCA BIRDIE
Race #3- #1 HOLLYWOOD BROWN; #2 DYLADDIE; #4 MARY BOPPINS TOO
Race #4- #1 CAMGO; #5 CATCH MY CABOOSE; #4 SOUTHERN SAVIOUR
Race #5- #1 TO THE FRONT; #3 ZAINO BOYZ; #4 ALLTHEWAY TO CAIRO
Race #6- #1 STRONG SAFETY; #4 LASHER; #5 MORGAN COUNTY
Race #7- #4 MUAD'DIB; #5 PENGUIN POWER; #7 HERO’S MAN
Race #8- #1 MARY’S JEWEL; #2 THUNDERTURTLE; #6 SKI BUNNY

Churchill Downs
Race #1- #4 JOY OF TREASURE; #5 TAPTIME; #1 YOU CAN BE MAGIC
Race #2- #1 BELLE TAPISSERIE; #3 THE QUEENS JULES; #2 FIRE MARSHALL BILL
Race #3- #2 MO BETTA; #4 PALATIAL TIMES; #6 TANGO CHARLIE
Race #4- #4 JOLLY TOMMY; #12 CARBONITE; #3 ASHWINS ORB
Race #5- #3 TARTUFO; #7 GOLDEN GAVEL; #1 GROUP HUG
Race #6- #3 AIDANIKE; #9 BACHELORETTE; #4 BITTER VIXEN
Race #7- #4 ONE FAST CAT; #5 SOMES SOUND; #1 OUTLIER
Race #8- #11 OUR SOUPER LOVE; #6 CANCEL THIS; #2 BOMBDIGGITY
Race #9- #2 LAST SAMURAI; #8 DYNADRIVE; #4 CLAYTNTHELIONHEART
Race #10- #4 BANGO; #1 NECKER ISLAND; #7 SIR ALFRED JAMES
Race #11- #2 DIVINE LEADER; #14 DEFEATER; #6 CODY’S WISH

Del Mar Racetrack
Race #1- #1 ONE FAST BRO; #4 RED HORNET; #6 DICEY MO CHARA
Race #2- #4 TIZAMAGICIAN; #2 LONE ROCK; #6 LOCALLY OWNED
Race #3- #3 ABSCOND; #2 PRINCESS GRACE; #7 GOING GLOBAL
Race #4- #5 GAMINE; #6 BELLA SOFIA; #4 CE CE
Race #5- #12 EXTRAVAGANT KID; #3 GOLDEN PAL; #9 KIMARI
Race #6- #5 LIFE IS GOOD; #1 SILVER STATE; #4 JASPER PRINCE
Race #7- #8 LOVES ONLY YOU; #7 WAR LIKE GODDESS; #12 AUDARYA
Race #8- #2 JACKIE’S WARRIOR; #9 DR. SCHIVEL; #1 FOLLOWING SEA
Race #9- #9 MOTHER EARTH; #2 SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT; #3 SPACE BLUES
Race #10- #6 LETRUSKA; #8 SHEDARESTHEDEVIL; #3 MALATHAAT
Race #11- #13 TARNAWA; #7 WALTON STREET; #3 DOMESTIC SPENDING
Race #12- #5 KNICKS GO; #9 MAX PLAYER; #8 MEDINA SPIRIT

Delta Downs
Race #1- #7 I’M ALL SHOOK UP; #1 JUSABOXACHOCOLATES; #9 DEAL ME A PENNY
Race #2- #2 NIN TO WIN; #7 SHE’S MY PRIORITY; #6 BEAUTIFUL ENDING
Race #3- #7 GRAND PRIORITY; #1 FLUFFPOINT; #2 JUDGMENTAL
Race #4- #4 SIMPLY WICKED; #2 INDEFENSIBLE; #3 WAITA MINUTE HAYES
Race #5- #5 ACCUSTOMED TO HOPE; #10 HURRICANE TIZWAY; #3 WICKED FLASHBACK
Race #6- #9 MOVE IT; #8 HONORARIAN; #5 I’M ALWAYS LATE
Race #7- #6 KNOCKALITTLELOUDER; #1A AVAILABLE STAR; #2 BORN AGAIN GEORGE
Race #8- #2 MISS AGGIE BLING; #4 RUBY SIOUX; #9 PANTERITA
Race #9- #4 AW SHUCKS; #1 WAYFARING STRANGER; #8 CRIMSON ZIP
Race #10- #7 FUNNY ACTOR; #11 IMA SUNNY SONG; #1 POSEIDON WRATH

Evangeline Downs
Race #1- #4 TUNIE JEAN; #2 TG BIGONE; #6 FAMOUS VODKA CARTEL
Race #2- #4 MM FAST PRIZE CORONA; #2 LYNNS TEE COS LOVE; #5 RKM JET BLACK PERRY
Race #3- #4 JESSALILBIT; #3 JM FRIDAY; #5 NO POLITICS HERE
Race #4- #3 RETURN THE QUEEN; #2 GO GETTUM PYC; #5 SIR STREAKIN RUNAWAY
Race #5- #6 OPENING PRESENCE; #7 ICECOLDBLOOD; #5 LEAVINGDIAMONDFORYOU
Race #6- #6 XDW SHEEZ SWEET; #1 AJ TAYLORS RED TRAIN; #5 SISSI STOLI
Race #7- #6 JRS CORONAS TOAST; #1 JJ CARTEL KEEPNIT; #3 HEZA PILOTO
Race #8- #8 BJX SUPERNATURAL; #5 QUICK LADYS CASH; #6 FILLED WITH GRACE

Golden Gate Fields
Race #1- #6 SKY MAKER; #2 PERFECTAMENTE; #3 KAZAKHSTAN
Race #2- #1 LUCK IS GOLDEN; #4 BY MOONLIGHT; #7 SABUDA
Race #3- #7 INDIAN JAZZ; #2 NAN ELIZABETH; #3 RUNNING LUCK
Race #4- #1 IL CAPITANO; #5 HIGHLAND GHOST; #4 DIMMI QUANDO
Race #5- #5 BLUEBERRY EYES; #7 VALDINI; #8 GINGERDOODLE
Race #6- #1 MISS UNION; #5 ALESHA; #8 INTO CLASSIC
Race #7- #6 A J ROCK; #3 FAMILY TRIPS; #1 GLITTER LAKE
Race #8- #6 DIAMOND BLITZ; #1 RESPECT THE HUSTLE; #3 NOWHERE MAN
Race #9- #4 TAM’S LITTLE ANGEL; #3 VARICK; #5 BALL LASS
Race #10- #2 CAMINO DEL PARAISO; #5 HARMON; #4 BIG FISH
Race #11- #9 SING IN THE WIND; #11 VRONILLA PARFAIT; #4 TONI TWO POCKET

Gulfstream Park
Race #1- #3 KING FORCE; #6 CAMPEADOR; #7 ADMIRAL TRUFFLES
Race #2- #6 LUSITANO; #3 UNMATCHABLE; #4 UNCORK THE BOTTLE
Race #3- #6 MISTA DONZELLA; #9 EXPRESS PHAROAH; #7 THORN
Race #4- #6 BYE BYE DAVID; #1 SETTE STELLE; #5 NEVERENOUGHCOCO
Race #5- #1 TRAPPEZOID; #6 MY POINT EXACTLY; #3 BRASSTOWN
Race #6- #1 NOVEL IDEA; #3 CHASING HAPPINESS; #9 SURREAL FANTASY
Race #7- #1 DIGITAL FOOTPRINT; #2 CANDY CRUSHEM; #7 DEVOTED KITTEN
Race #8- #12 IMPENETRABLE; #6 SUPERSTITIEUX; #8 SMOKIN BOW
Race #9- #7 AMERICAN PRINCE; #6 FRONT LOADED; #8 SEPTEMBERTEN
Race #10- #4 ARZAK; #11 HERCULES; #5 IRISH HONOR
Race #11- #8 BRASS BAND; #4 ALARM CLOCK; #2 MONETARY SURPRISE

Hawthorne Race Course
Race #1- #4 ALMUAHED; #6 ANGEL’S MAGIC; #1 RUSSIAN TANK
Race #2- #1 HOODWINK; #6 COOKIN ROSES; #3 I LOVE TO RACE
Race #3- #10 GET NONE; #5 JUJU’S SPECIALGIRL; #9 DRINKS ON ME
Race #4- #5 BENS MALICE; #6 SAMARITA; #4 IZU IZ OR IZU AINT
Race #5- #3 POPPY’S BOYS; #10 POLICY OPTION; #5 DUCHOSSOIS
Race #6- #4 PURR SEA; #5 OEUVRE; #8 GHAALEB’S RANGER
Race #7- #10 SIMPLE LOGIC; #1 RIDE RICHIE RIDE; #4 GIRLOLAMO'GLORY
Race #8- #11 LEE’S LUCK; #4 KILLEEN; #3 PRESIDENT ELECT

Laurel Park
Race #1- #8 GALLANT GEORGE; #1 MAGICAL JAIME; #9 ARTISTIC REASON
Race #2- #4 CONGRESS HALL; #3 SIERRA LEONA; #6 FAIRY WISH
Race #3- #2 GOLDEN GRANT; #5 MAYFIELD OF DREAMS; #3 SHE’S ALL COURAGE
Race #4- #2 CORN OFF THE COB; #4 BOSSY BRIDE; #3 RAN CHAR
Race #5- #8 BAHAMA CHANNEL; #4 MANICOMIO; #1 THREETHEHARDWAY
Race #6- #8 MR. NINETEEN; #7 DR RAGS; #2 HAND GESTURE
Race #7- #6 WICKED FINN; #4 PASSPORT; #3 ROBERT’S LUXURY
Race #8- #2 GALERIO; #7 TORCH OF TRUTH; #6 TREASURE TROVE
Race #9- #7 NEW FRONTIER; #1 BULL SHARK; #4 BAPTIZE THE BOY

Lone Star Park
Race #1- #5 MIGHTY BUG LETHAL; #9 MISS SPICY CORONA; #3 SHAKE WRANGLER
Race #2- #5 STOLIN CORONAS; #8 TEMP TO MASTER; #6 BOOMIN CHICK
Race #3- #4 SS CLASSYJESS; #7 PREYN ONTHE MOUNTAIN; #5 SILK AND STILETTOS
Race #4- #9 POLITICAL ROSE; #2 NO SECRET KNOCKOUT; #6 LEVERAJ
Race #5- #6 SMOKY ICE; #5 DYNASTY SIXTY SIX; #9 ONE KISSIN SWEETIE
Race #6- #9 BETTERTON; #4 A FAMOUS RIBBON; #8 JM JESSE JAMES 123
Race #7- #9 KJ DESPARADO; #7 EM HIGH COUNTRY; #6 TOMMIE EAGLE
Race #8- #6 PANHANDLE DYNASTY; #8 HIGH FLYING HERO; #9 GIVE ME SUM SUGARPYC
Race #9- #8 KJ BRANDY; #6 SAN LORENZO TAY; #3 ESPECIALLY JESS
Race #10- #10 WHIRLAWAY WAGON; #5 ROCK SOLID STONES; #6 HES NO ILUSION
Race #11- #3 DOITEZE; #2 A LIL POLLITICAL; #8 JESS THE LEADER
Race #12- #2 ONE FABULOUS SEIS; #6 GIRLS FAMOUS; #7 ONE TO CELEBRATE

Mahoning Valley Race Course
Race #1- #4 CARSON CITY STORM; #6 LEDGENDARY KITTEN; #3 BUCKEYE BLING
Race #2- #2 Z U IN MY DREAMS; #5 QUALITY CHROME; #6 MY PHAROAH LADY
Race #3- #8 PAT DADDY; #1A LAZARUS PROJECT; #1 KOSCIUSZKO
Race #4- #3 CHIP CHOP; #7 HIPSTER; #2 WAPAKONETA PHIL
Race #5- #6 HENRY THE CAT; #3 RIVERS OF LITE; #5 TIME HEIST
Race #6- #1 CHANNEL FURY; #5 ROYAL’D; #3 DARK OAK
Race #7- #6 GARRETT; #7 BLANDA; #8 KINGOFTHEBUCKEYE
Race #8- #7 HARDLY SWAYED; #4 HURRICANE NATION; #3 JAILBREAKER

Turf Paradise
Race #1- #6 MOREISBETTER; #4 BLACKBERRY LISA; #3 LA ROSA DRIVE
Race #2- #4 MISS KITNESS; #1 UNCHAINING MELODY; #7 NORTH OF EDEN
Race #3- #5 SHINNY; #2 TOP OF THE GAME; #3 CHECK AND RAISE
Race #4- #2 EVER VIGILANT; #5 LAUGHAROO; #4 WRIGHT WINGED
Race #5- #1 MINNESOTA RED; #7 RIVER KAT; #2 ATTORNEY LOUIS
Race #6- #8 HOT SOCKS; #3 MATSON; #9 THIRTY SECONDS OUT
Race #7- #2 HARKING; #9 ARIZONA SUN; #6 ON DECK
Race #8- #8 UNCLE GOYLE; #6 SIX NINETY ONE; #7 C DUB

Will Rogers Downs
Race #1- #6 MHSHES WIRED; #7 RUN DUE RUN; #4 A GRACEFUL LINEAGE
Race #2- #5 SNOW ADVISORY; #7 JF PRINCESS STORM; #1 DREAMIN OF COUNTRY
Race #3- #6 SUNNYS CANDYMAN; #1 DASHIN CARLOTTA; #3 CLYDE THE CRUZER
Race #4- #6 SCANDYLOUS; #7 REE; #8 RELENTLESS I AM
Race #5- #4 KOOLS GOTTA SECRET; #7 LOTTA BIG COUNTRY; #3 VALTRATA
Race #6- #9 ROOMER HAZ IT; #4 VALIANTS WILD CARD; #10 FLAMING CARTER
Race #7- #3 EYESA FANCY PYC; #9 PEVES BIG HOSS; #6 LOTA DOUX
Race #8- #7 TRADEMARQUE; #3 JESSHAULIN CANDY; #9 DRT KISS MYFAT WAGON
Race #9- #2 INSEPARABLE LEADER; #1 CARTEL LITTLE OKEY; #6 PEVES WAGONER QUEEN

Woodbine Racetrack
Race #1- #2 HARD EDGE; #7 TWISTER ALERT; #6 SECRETS TOLD
Race #2- #10 CLASSY GIZMO; #1 AVIE’S SKY; #8 CRIMSON INVASION
Race #3- #4 CHAIRMAN BOB; #1 HUNT MASTER; #3 KEEP IT NEAT
Race #4- #4 TEXT ME UP; #7 TIZ MY RIGHT; #3 MAMITA’S CHICA
Race #5- #1 MAXIMUS MOMENTUS; #4 GOLDMINE CAT; #6 SOUPER SMART
Race #6- #3 LUCKMAN; #7 READY FOR THE LADY; #5 SPANISH PRINCE
Race #7- #11 AVIE’S SAMURAI; #3 SPANISH BALLERINA; #10 BEYOND MYBUDGET
Race #8- #5 TECUMSEH’S WAR; #9 BROADWAY; #6 MILANO
Race #9- #2 HITTERS PARK; #5 NOW WE ARE NINE; #6 PINK LEMONADE
Race #10- #2 IF SIX WAS NINE; #3 JOY’S SOLUTION; #7 TOP PRIZE GIRL
Race #11- #8 STENCIL; #1 NO WHAMMIE; #5 REIGN BY REIN

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-05-2021, 11:59 PM

Jonathon Kinchen

Del Mar
Race 12 (8:40 p.m. ET)
Breeders' Cup Classic

4 Essential Quality (3-1)
This horse is super talented. He was the 2-year-old champ. He is the likely 3-year-old champ. And he's still getting better, as demonstrated by his improved workouts in the morning. I think the pace on Saturday will fall apart, and he will pick up the pieces. Top pick

5 Knicks Go (5-2)
He is one of my favorite horses of all-time. He lays it down in every race. My biggest concern with Knicks Go is that he'll be hooked on the lead earlier than he has ever been hooked before. That's a problem for me. In the unlikely event that he gets loose on the lead, he could definitely win, so I'll be alive to both Knicks Go and Essential Quality in multirace wagers. But I prefer Essential Quality.

3 Hot Rod Charlie (4-1)
This is a sneaky, sneaky horse. He has been running extremely well and arguably ran better than Essential Quality in the Belmont Stakes. But I think Hot Rod Charlie is going to run at Knicks Go early, and I worry that will blow it up for both of them.

2 Express Train (20-1)
Express Train ran well in his last two starts -- the Pacific Classic and Awesome Again Stakes -- but was wide and lost lots of ground. I think the No. 2 post will help him save some ground on Saturday. I won't use him on my tickets, but I won't argue with anyone who wants to use him underneath in exotics. He could pick up some pieces

1 Tripoli (15-1)
This son of Kitten's Joy showed a bunch of talent on the turf. Then trainer John Sadler got him on the dirt, and he started winning big races. He didn't run well in his last start in the Awesome Again, running wide on a track that probably had an inside bias. I can forgive him for that. I could see using him underneath, but he can't win.

9 Max Player (8-1)
I always thought Max Player was a cut below the best horses, but he earned my respect in winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He stalked a slow pace and ran well that day. That win was at the distance of the Classic. I think he likes being put in the race a little earlier than usual; the problem is that this year's Classic, with its abundance of speed, is not a race you want to be put in early. He can't win.

6 Art Collector (8-1)
This is a quality horse, but he needs to get loose on the lead to win, and he has zero chance to get loose on the lead on Saturday.

8 Medina Spirit (4-1)
The Kentucky Derby winner ran well in winning the Awesome Again Stakes in his last start. But he won that race because he got loose on the lead, and there's little chance he will get loose on the lead on Saturday. And since he won't be loose, I don't think he will be able to hang with the other speed horses in this race. He got a nice draw toward the outside, but I really think he will fall apart."

7 Stilleto Boy (30-1)
He's not the craziest 30-1 shot in the world. I just don't see him getting the job done. He likes to be forward and has to deal with the other speed in this field.

Wagering strategy

I think this will be a top-heavy race, so unfortunately I don't see any long shots finishing in the exacta. In multirace wagers, I will have both Essential Quality and Knicks Go on my tickets. But when betting this race, I will key only Essential Quality over Knicks Go and Hot Rod Charlie.

Wagers
$75 exacta 4 with 5 ($75)
$25 exacta 4 with 3 ($25)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:00 AM

Bob Weir

Del Mar
Race 12 (8:40 p.m. ET)
Breeders' Cup Classic

Win contenders
5 Knicks Go (5-2) is a deserving favorite for the Breeders' Cup Classic. He's now 7-for-9 since transferring to the Brad Cox barn in 2020. His two losses were earlier this year in the Saudi Cup and the Met Mile at Belmont. Since then, he's blitzed through his competition, winning three races by more than 18 lengths combined. If you are looking for holes, the biggest is that this will be his first time going 1¼ miles while also facing the toughest group of horses that can challenge him early. Knicks Go will be on the lead, and if you challenge him too early, it might cost your horse late. But if you wait, you may not have a chance late either. He will be tough to beat.

Also trained by Cox, 4 Essential Quality (3-1) could be the most likely to benefit if a pace meltdown occurs. He's capable off the pace and has no concerns with the distance. This 3-year-old will be facing older horses for the first time, but he's already run faster than any of the older horses in here with the exception of Knicks Go. Essential Quality's lone loss was fourth by a length in the Kentucky Derby.

3 Hot Rod Charlie (4-1) was third in the Derby and second in the Belmont and is coming off his top Beyer Speed Figure performance while winning the Pennsylvania Derby. He's proven on or off the lead, and with Knicks Go drawn to his outside, he will be the first one forced to make a decision. If he lets Knicks Go cross in front, he could get stuck inside the other pace players drawn to the outside. If he tries to go early, he could have a different issue. He's talented enough, but he will need jockey Flavien Prat to create a perfect trip from this spot.

Exotic candidates
6 Art Collector (8-1) draws outside Knicks Go, and this 4-year-old continues to improve. He has been able to track the lead or set the pace in much slower races than what he will see here. If he can settle, he might get the first run, depending on what Hot Rod Charlie does. He hasn't proven he's fast enough, but he is improving.

9 Max Player (8-1) is interesting. He has improved this year when the connections were able to get him into the race earlier, but this race could call for his late run from the clouds. He's not good enough to win unless the race falls completely apart, but he's a definite candidate for lower spots.

8 Medina Spirit (4-1) has proven me wrong multiple times this year, but I still can't see him outrunning Knicks Go early and holding off the remainder of the field late. If he's able to stalk and pass, maybe he could win, but that trip has not been his best. I will play against him again.

Rest of field

1 Tripoli (15-1) took a step back with a non-competitive effort in the Awesome Again Stakes. This Pacific Classic winner looks overmatched, but he obviously likes Del Mar. He could sneak into the bottom of exotics.

A 4-year-old, 2 Express Train (20-1) just does not look like the same horse from this spring. Pass.

7 Stilleto Boy (30-1) ran a surprising second at 54-1 in the Awesome Again and faces a much tougher field here. This 3-year-old could be improving, but he needs another big jump. He's the lone horse in the field without a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure.

Wagering strategy
Knicks Go is a legitimate favorite in this running of the Breeders' Cup Classic. At 5-2, he's deserving of a win bet, but in this nine-horse field, I suspect his price will be 2-1 or lower. So I will play him on top in exotics and use a single backup ticket in case the final furlong catches up to him.

Since I see this as a top-heavy race with the favorites dominating, there is no point in playing any show or place wagers.

Wagers
$25 exacta 5 with 3,4 ($50)
$5 trifecta 5 with 3,4,6,9 with 3,4,6,9 ($60)
$5 trifecta 5 with 3,4 with 1,3,4,6,8,9 ($50)
$2 superfecta 5 with 3,4 with 3,4 with 1,6,9 ($12)
$0.50 superfecta 3,4 with 3,4,5,6 with 3,4,5,6,9 with 1,3,4,5,6,9 ($27)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:00 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Breeders’ Cup Post Position Draw Reaction

November 1, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

A total of 169 horses entered 14 championship races this afternoon for Friday and Saturdays’ 38th edition of the Breeders’ Cup. The two-day soiree at Del Mar culminates with the $6 million Classic that stars Pegasus World Cup winner Knicks Go as the 5-2 morning line favorite vs. seven rivals. Del Mar’s second go as Breeders’ Cup host, having presented the event also in 2017, should be under ideal conditions with partly cloudy skies and temps just above 70 degrees forecasted both days.

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet platforms can take advantage of up to a $10 money-back guarantee on win bets on every Del Mar race held Friday and Saturday. If your win bet finishes second or third in any race, you’ll get a $10 refunded wagering credit for each.

Future Stars Friday opens the event with five races for the 2-year-olds. Unbeaten Echo Zulu (4-5) tops the Juvenile Fillies, which attracted just 6 starters, while the Juvenile matches an east-west showdown between far-inside Jack Christopher (9-5) and far-outside Corniche (5-2) among a field of 12. Friday’s trio of turf races include the Juvenile Turf Sprint (12 entered, Averly Jane 5-2 ML favorite), the Juvenile Fillies Turf (14 entered, Pizza Bianca 5-1 ML favorite) and the Juvenile Turf (14 entered, Dubawi Legend 4-1 ML favorite).

Friday’s most intriguing post-draw element has to be extremes for the favorites in the Juvenile and Juvenile Turf. With front-runners Corniche (12) and Jack Christopher (1) book-ending the Juvenile field, that should turn up a potentially hot pace even more. The Juvenile Turf extemes won’t be as impactful on pace, but potentially trip with European rising stars Dubawi Legend (14) and Modern Games (1) having to negotiate tricky starting points.

The nine-stakes Saturday lineup features big fields in the grass tests: 12 in the Turf Sprint (Golden Pal 7-2 ML favorite), 12 in the Filly and Mare Turf (War Like Goddess 3-1 ML favorite, defending champ Audarya 5 -1 ML from post 12), 14 in the Mile (Space Blues 3-1 ML favorite) and 14 in the Turf (defending champ Tarnawa 9-5 ML favorite from post 13). A new, all-turf pick four will be offered on Saturday’s quartet of grass races.

Saturday’s five dirt stakes include the aforementioned Classic, in addition to the Filly & Mare Sprint (6 entered, Gamine 3-5 ML favorite), Dirt Mile (8 entered, Life Is Good 4-5 ML favorite), Sprint (9 entered, Jackie’s Warrior 6-5 ML favorite) and Distaff (11 entered, Letruska 8-5 ML favorite).

Notable among the Saturday post draws are the potential speed clash between Gamine and Bella Sofia breaking side-by-side in the Filly and Mare Sprint; defending champion Glass Slippers starting from the rail in the Turf Sprint; and the speedy Private Mission luring the rail in the Distaff and potentially locking up with heavily favored front-runner Letruska.

Be sure to download the free 1/ST Breeders’ Cup Wager Guide update, available Thursday, that will include new content from our Oct. 29 initial release. Fresh analysis includes Eddie Olcyzk’s Hat Trick of best bets, a Classic look by legendary sportscaster Brent Musburger of VSIN, the historical Betmix ‘Angler’ best-fit contenders in each division and the full-card Del Mar artificial intelligence picks from the 1/ST BET app for both days.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:01 AM

Odds set for Breeders' Cup Classic

By Ron Flatter
November 2, 2021 07:02 PM

It has been said the morning line is worth every cent put into it. A polite way of describing it is worthless. For serious handicappers who weigh equine past performances with human betting trends, it may mean less than that.

But for us mere mortals, it can be the prism through which bargains are separated from underlays. That may be especially true Friday at the 38th Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar.

That is in no small way because Jon White wrote the morning line. There are a few really good handicappers who have a good sense of how the public is going to bet. He is one of them. Ask anyone who has dared to question his estimates. Yes, my hand is raised. It is the hand that was smacked when it pushed in money on a horse that should have gone off at longer odds. Except White, who has been around the game for decades in Southern California, knew better.

One good place to apply his knowledge is in the futures market, which finally landed on U.S. soil Monday. That was when Paul Zilm, writing for Circa Sports, opened fixed odds for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Yes, we in America host all 14 of these races. But we in America have yet to catch up with offshore and overseas Bookmakers who have been writing prices for all the Breeders’ Cup championships for weeks. This will change when U.S. sports gambling finds its way out of the steam-locomotive era.

Here is how the odds compare and contrast among the morning line, Circa Sports and a global site outside the U.S.:

ML Circa Global

15-1 20-1 20-1 1. Tripoli

20-1 23-1 40-1 2. Express Train

4-1 5-1 5-1 3. Hot Rod Charlie

3-1 3-1 3-1 4. Essential Quality

5-2 5-2 9-4 5. Knicks Go

8-1 10-1 9-1 6. Art Collector

30-1 35-1 66-1 7. Stilleto Boy

4-1 6-1 5-1 8. Medina Spirit

8-1 10-1 9-1 9. Max Player

For the most part, Circa odds are better than the morning line. Unlike White, who must bow to the requirements of pari-mutuel mathematics, Zilm could be more generous with his opening odds. At least he could for the long shots.

Brad Cox stablemates Knicks Go and Essential Quality will be the top choices at the track, and they carry short prices at Circa. There really is not much point in getting down on Knicks Go at + 260 or Essential Quality at + 300 when they will go off around those prices on race day.

But cases can be made for the rest of the field, provided horseplayers want to take their chances. The arguments against that include the fact that Knicks Go possesses early speed that is more often than not rewarded in California. He is also 7-for-7 going two turns. And except for the merry-go-round quirk of the Kentucky Derby, Essential Quality would be undefeated. As it is, he has impressed with victories in the Belmont and Travers stakes.

But back to the world outside the Cox stable. Hot Rod Charlie impressed in the Belmont, too, going eyeball to eyeball with Essential Quality in a race that went 1½ miles, or a quarter-mile more than Saturday’s $6 million Classic. He might have been the best horse in the Haskell even though he was disqualified. Then he got his overdue Grade 1 score Sept. 25 in the Pennsylvania Derby. If there is belief Hot Rod Charlie will win this race, 5-1 looks like a decent overlay.

Medina Spirit, who has become an unwitting poster child for all that ails the sport and trainer Bob Baffert, is still the 2021 Kentucky Derby winner. Men and women in robes may rule otherwise one day. They cannot, however, make anyone forget what he did May 1 at Churchill Downs. That was to get a loose lead under John Velazquez and never get caught. The chances of that happening against Knicks Go seem slim, but 6-1 does not feel like such a bargain for him.

That 10-1 price for Art Collector is another story. This is a horse that, at 4, looks the part of a colt who is a little older and a lot stronger. He may have exceeded expectations going 3-for-3 since he was transferred from Tommy Drury to Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Most recently he won last month’s Woodward at Belmont Park. In an interview for Friday’s episode of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, Mott was quick to point out that this is a horse used to being on a winning streak.

“Tommy did a great job with him,” Mott said. “He reeled off four wins in a row last year and proved to be a very nice horse. He was in good shape when we got him, and we just picked up where he left off.”

Anyone thinking the real Max Player is finally standing up would be eager to cash in on his 10-1 odds at Circa. After finishing out of the money in the 2020 Kentucky Derby and Preakness and flattening in this year’s Saudi Cup and Pimlico Special, the 4-year-old colt who went from Linda Rice to the barn of Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen won the Suburban and then the Jockey Club Gold Cup. The big problem he has Saturday is that he drew widest in the field of nine.

The option of fixed odds does not end with the win pool. As it has since it got into racing futures 1½ years ago, Circa has also posted prices to lay in betting against the Classic horses. These are the “no” prices:

–3500 1. Tripoli

–3900 2. Express Train

–690 3. Hot Rod Charlie

–380 4. Essential Quality

–330 5. Knicks Go

–1600 6. Art Collector

–6000 7. Stilleto Boy

–840 8. Medina Spirit

–1600 9. Max Player

Since Circa encourages multisport parlays, these may be just what football bettors are looking for to try to pad their winnings betting a side or a total.

The fixed odds offered by Circa — and, of course, in the risky climate of global books — are a preview of the brave new world into which horseplayers and sports bettors are venturing. When it comes to the new normal, it will be a welcome change.

In addition to this weekly report, Ron Flatter’s racing column is available every Friday at VSiN.com with more frequent articles this week during the Breeders’ Cup. The Ron Flatter Racing Pod is also available at VSiN.com/podcasts. This week features a pop-up episode being posted Wednesday afternoon with Las Vegas Bookmakers Chris Andrews, Johnny Avello and Duane Colucci handicapping all 14 championship races. Friday’s regular episode features jockey Mike Smith, trainers Chad Brown, Brad Cox and Bill Mott, XBTV’s Zoe Cadman and Jeff Siegel and Racing with Bruno analyst Bruno De Julio. The RFRP is available for free subscription at iHeart, Apple, Google, Spotify and Stitcher.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:01 AM

Tips and Trends for 2021 Breeders’ Cup Mile, Which Has Produced Three Massive Upsets in Last 10 Years
Gambling
November 2nd, 2021 by Mike Curry

Year in and year out, my favorite race in the Breeders’ Cup World Championships is the FanDuel Mile Presented by PDJF. One-mile races on the grass are, in my opinion, the best races in the sport of Thoroughbred racing for betting and pure enjoyment.

The Mile is a distance and surface that draws sprinters stretching out, true milers, and more stamina-oriented racehorses cutting back in distance and often seeing a completely different race shape.

These one-mile grass races are a true test of ability and class, and over the years the Breeders’ Cup Mile has often produced a winner almost as notable, if not more so, than the Classic victor.

Mile winners like Goldikova, Wise Dan, and Tepin brought enough star power to headline their own racecard and shined on the brightest stage. Other times, especially in the last decade, the race has produced a shocking upset.

The 2021 Breeders’ Cup Mile, set for Nov. 6 at Del Mar, figures to follow suit as a terrific race. It typically draws an exceptional field and this year’s event should boast a depth of quality runners that equals and/or exceeds almost all of the races at the World Championships.

There are some significant trends to consider when looking for a winner, so let’s dig into the last 20 years of the Breeders’ Cup Mile (2001-2020) and build the profile of a winner.
Karakontie upsets in 2014. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Potential Money-Making Race

The Mile historically has the sixth-highest average payout ($21.61) for a $2 win bet from the 14 World Championships races, but just in the last 10 years it has produced two of the four biggest upsets in the history of the World Championships as well as a third upset that paid $62 on a $2 win ticket. Sure, favorites win this race regularly, but it’s usually pretty obvious standouts that do so – three-time Mile winner Goldikova and two-time winner Wise Dan account for five of the six winning favorites over the last 20 editions.

The Mile has produced seven winners at double-digit odds over the last 20 editions: 12.40-1 Tourist in 2016; Singletary at 16.50-1 odds in 2004; Miesque’s Approval at 24.30-1 in 2006; Domedriver at 26-1 in 2002; Karakontie at 30-1 in 2014; Court Vision at 64.80-1 odds in 2011; and Order of Australia at 73.20-1 odds last year was the biggest longshot in the race’s history.
Order of Australia, who drew into the 2020 Mile off the also-eligible list, rates as the second-biggest longshot in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, trailing only 1993 Classic victor Arcangues who was sent off at a remarkable 133.60-1 odds.
Twenty-five percent of the last 20 editions of this race produced a return of $50 or more for a $2 win ticket and there have been three winners at $62 or more just in the last 10 years!
The median odds of the Breeders’ Cup Mile winner from 2001 through 2020 was 5.45-1 with the average ballooning to 14.78-1 thanks to the five $50 winners.
Of the aforementioned six favorites to win the Mile from 2001 through 2020, Goldikova (2008, 2009, 2010) and Wise Dan (2012, 2013) accounted for five of those chalk winners with the other being World Approval at 2.70-1 in 2017.
Additionally, there were six Mile winners from 2001 to 2020 that fell in the range between 7-2 and 6-1 odds, so 12 of the 20 were 6-1 or less. It’s not exactly a parade of upsets.

Order of Australia stuns in 2020. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Tell Me More About the Longshots!

Entering last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile, I thought I had identified a pretty clear profile for a Breeders’ Cup Mile longshot winner. I always keep an eye out for closers with proven class who might be coming out of final prep races that are better than they look on paper. Order of Australia shook up things a bit, but I still believe that type of runner is what handicappers should be looking for in past performances.

Digging deeper into the double-digit longshot winners, only Domedriver in 2002 entered the race off a win, taking the Group 2 Prix de la Rochelle by head in France.
The other six were all third or worse in their final prep race with four of them unplaced while beaten by open lengths. Of course, two of the four were established Grade/Group 1 winners.
It’s worth taking a closer look at the “other” European invaders, meaning not the ones who are among the favorites, because typically the connections of these runners believe they have good reason to ship across the Atlantic. While European shippers who are well-regarded can and do run well, another longshot shipper, Karakontie in 2014, was a Classic winner in France who struggled when stretching out in distance but regained his elite form when cutting back to a mile and racing on firm turf.
From the group of seven double-digit winners, four profiled as closers, Tourist was a stalker/closer, and Singletary and Order of Australia profiled as stalkers. None was better than fourth after the opening half-mile and five of the seven were seventh or worse after the opening quarter-mile.
While Order of Australia raced nearer to the pace than most of the others and is the only winner in the last 20 years without at least one Grade/Group 2 win entering the Mile, he did come from the powerful barn of elite European trainer Aidan O’Brien. Order of Australia had posted back-to-back wins – one on an all-weather track and the other at 1 ½ miles on the grass – before a disastrous ninth-place finish, beaten by 47 ¾ lengths in a Group 3 race on turf rated as soft.
Unlike the other longshot winners in this race, Order of Australia did not look like your typical miler. His average distance in five starts before the Breeders’ Cup in 2020 with 10.74 furlongs or between 1 5/16 miles and 1 3/8 miles.
The other six on average raced at a little less than 8.2 furlongs in their 29 starts before the Breeders’ Cup Mile in the year that they won.
As a group, the upset winners combined to prevail in only 12 of 35 starts before the Breeders’ Cup in the year that they won the Mile, so be a bit more forgiving if you are getting 15-1 or higher odds and think a horse has a decent chance to be in the mix in deep stretch.
In general, you are looking for established milers coming from off the pace with proven class – in Order of Australia’s case at least the ability string together a few wins – and some reason for upside like traffic trouble or adverse conditions in their previous start.

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Steer Clear of Speed

Tactical speed is an incredibly valuable asset in dirt racing, but the best grass horses typically have an explosive late turn of foot and complete the final quarter-mile in a significantly faster time than they ran any other segment of the race. The Breeders’ Cup Mile has tilted heavily toward stalker/closer types over the years and specifically in the last 20 editions of this race.

The Mile has not been won by a pacesetter or a horse that profiled as a pacesetter in the last 20 editions. In fact, no runner who was in front after the opening quarter-mile or half-mile has won the race during this 20-race sample.
Seven of the last 20 winners were 10th or worse after the first quarter-mile, and 12 of the last 20 winners were sixth or worse after the first half-mile.
World Approval, winner of the lone previous edition at Del Mar in 2017, entered the Mile as a press-the-pace type runner; the other 19 winners included three who profiled as press the pace/stalkers and 16 who profiled as either stalkers, stalker/closers, or closers. Six winners profiled as closers.
Mile winners from 2001 through 2020 were, on average seventh (7.2 to be exact) after the opening quarter-mile and between 5 ½ and 5 ¾ lengths back. The median for the opening quarter is in seventh/eighth (7.5) position and between 5 ½ and 5 ¾ lengths off the pace.
Similarly, after the first half-mile the average winner was seventh (6.9) and just a tick under five lengths (4.9125) back with a median of sixth/seventh (6.5) and between 4 ½ lengths and 4 ¾ lengths off the pace.
I’ve mentioned this in previous editions of the blog, but explosive turn of foot seems to be the common characteristic among the winners. Note the average winner improved to slightly more than one length (1.1) back in early stretch with a median of second/third, one length behind the leader.

Expert Eye and Dettori in 2018. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Class is Key

If you are looking through the past performances for Breeders’ Cup Mile runners looking for a win candidate, factor proven class extraordinarily highly. Nineteen of the last 20 winners of the race had at least one victory at the Grade/Group 2 level or above on their résumés before winning the Mile.

Thirteen of the last 20 Breeders’ Cup Mile winners had at least one Grade/Group 1 win to their credit entering the race and six of the other seven were at least Grade/Group 2 stakes winners. The only exception was Order of Australia last year who earned his first stakes win last year in the Mile.
Twelve of the last 14 Mile winners were Grade/Group 1 winners entering the race, but two of the last three were not: Order of Australia in 2020 and Expert Eye in 2018, with the latter a Group 2 winner in Europe.
While the past 20 editions of the Mile indicate proven class is a must, a victory in the final prep race has been less than a 50/50 proposition as only nine of the last 20 winners entered the race off a victory.
In fact, four of the Mile winners in the time frame entered the race off an unplaced finish and eight were third or worse in their final prep.
Seven runners entered the Mile off a Grade/Group 1 win and two others entered off a Grade/Group 2 victory.

The great Goldikova in 2008. (Eclipse Sportswire)

Notes and Nuggets

Below are a few other data points that seemed interesting and, perhaps, insightful when evaluating this year’s Mile contenders, so before we jump to analyzing this year’s field we have some additional fun facts about the last 20 editions of the race.

Three-year-olds have won 25% of the last 20 editions of the race: Six Perfections in 2003, Goldikova in 2008, Karakontie in 2014, Expert Eye in 2018, and Order of Australia in 2020. All five shipped over from Europe, so give European 3-year-olds a closer look.
Likewise, females have performed quite well in the Mile, winning six times in the last 20 years and 10 times overall – including eight European shippers – since the first edition in 1984.
Ten of the last 20 Mile winners were bred outside of the U.S.
The race is typically won by true milers rather than sprinters stretching out or longer-distance runners cutting back as the average race for the last 20 winners was 8.31 furlongs (eight furlongs in a mile) with a median of 8.25.
Ten of the last 20 editions of the Mile were decided by less than one length with the average margin of victory 1.125 lengths (between a length and 1 ¼ lengths) and the median 0.875 lengths (between three-quarters of a length and a length).
The average winning Equibase Speed Figure was 120.25 with a median of 120.5.
Seven of the last 20 Mile winners came out of a final prep race in France, six prepped in Kentucky, three more raced at Woodbine, two raced at Santa Anita Park, and one each raced at Belmont Park in New York and in Ireland.

Mo Forza (Eclipse Sportswire)

Evaluating the 2021 Mile Entrants

Charlie Appleby’s Space Blues was made the 3-1 favorite for this race and he’s a proven Group 1 winner with a big win chance, but I don’t view him as on the level of Goldikova and Wise Dan or even World Approval given how good he had become entering the 2017 Mile. Space Blues has spent the majority of his career sprinting, and runners stretching out from sprints have not fared well historically in the Mile, which favors dedicated milers. At 3-1, I’ll look elsewhere.

Likewise, Mo Forza is very good right now, but the 5-1 odds on the morning-line don’t offer a ton of appeal. Could he win? Absolutely … he’s reeled off wins in four straight going back to 2020 and from a speed-figure perspective they are the four best races of his career. The 5-year-old by Uncle Mo has three wins and two seconds in six starts at Del Mar, so yes, he’s a win candidate and probably will run well, but there are others I prefer at more appealing odds.

Let’s start with Space Blues’s 3-year-old stablemate Master of The Seas (12-1). A Group 2 winner as a 2-year-old, Master of the Seas ran second by a nose in the QIPCO Two Thousand Guineas at this one-mile trip and has fared well on firmer ground. Others might look at his seventh-place finish most recently in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and downgrade his chances off that race, but that came on good to soft turf and Appleby has been a maestro in 2021 when it comes to deciding which horses to ship to the United States with six winners, two seconds, and one third from 13 starters in North American stakes this year, including five Grade 1 wins. Both Appleby runners, Space Blues and Master of The Seas, should run well but I don’t think there is a huge gap between the two so I’ll take 12-1 over 3-1 every time.
Vin de Garde (Eclipse Sportswire)

One longshot I think could light up the toteboard is Japanese invader Vin de Garde (20-1), a 5-year-old by Deep Impact who is a Group 2 winner and finished second in March in the $4 million Dubai Turf Sponsored By DP World. He enters off a disappointing eighth-place finish in a Japanese Group 2 race, but that was his first start in 6 ½ months and I have no doubt he needed the race from a conditioning perspective. He’s 20-1 on the morning line and I think he’s a win candidate.

U.S.-based Got Stormy could outrun her 10-1 morning-line odds, although I’d like 12-1 or higher to play her to win. She ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2019 and last year ran sixth in the Turf Sprint. She showed a flash of her elite form when defeating males in August at Saratoga Race Course in the Grade 1 Fourstardave Handicap and is proven at the elite level. Before that race there were concerns that she had lost a step and others might be turned off by her recent sixth-place finish in a turf sprint stakes at Kentucky Downs, but she always seems to run well in Southern California and she’s a serious player if she brings her “A” game.

I’m intrigued by Mother Earth, a 3-year-old filly shipping over for Aidan O’Brien, who pulled off the upset last year with Order of Australia. Mother Earth, who opened her season with a win in the QIPCO One Thousand Guineas, won’t be anywhere near that type of longshot – she’s 8-1 on the morning-line – but O’Brien has 13 wins, 21 seconds, and 13 thirds from 156 career Breeders’ Cup starters, so he knows which horses in his stable will most likely handle the travel and firm turf at Del Mar.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:02 AM

2021 Breeders' Cup Classic odds, predictions, contenders: Expert who dominated Betting Challenge makes picks Jonathon Kinchen finished second out of 418 contestants in the prestigious Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge
By CBS Sports Staff

Trainer Brad Cox will try to win North America's richest horse race for the first time when he sends out the top two favorites in the 2021 Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday at Del Mar. The 41-year-old has won seven Breeders' Cup races, all since 2018, but has never even had a starter in the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic. Cox's Knicks Go, who won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile last year, is the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 2021 Breeders' Cup Classic odds. Stablemate Essential Quality is the 3-1 second choice among the nine Breeders' Cup 2021 horses in the Classic.

Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit and Pennsylvania Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie are the co-third choices in the Breeders' Cup 2021 field at 4-1. Six of the nine 2021 Breeders' Cup Challenge horses are 8-1 or shorter. Post time for the 1 1/4-mile race is 8:40 p.m. ET. With an elite field ready to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see how handicapping champion Jonathon Kinchen has analyzed the race.

Kinchen is one of the nation's most successful and recognizable horseplayers. An analyst for Fox Sports' "America's Day at the Races," Kinchen won the National Horseplayers Championship Tour in 2015, a demanding, yearlong series of handicapping events across the country. That same year, he became the only player in history to have both of his entries qualify for the final table of the National Horseplayers Championship.

At last year's Breeders' Cup, Kinchen finished second out of 418 contestants in the prestigious Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge, which earned him $215,000 in prize money. After factoring in his profit during the 14 Breeders' Cup races, he took home more than $366,000 on the day. Anyone who has followed him is up big.

Now, Kinchen has handicapped the 2021 Breeders' Cup Classic field, made his picks and constructed his bets. You can only see them here.
Top 2021 Breeders' Cup Classic predictions

One surprise: Kinchen is completely tossing Medina Spirit, even though he is one of the top favorites at 4-1. A son of unheralded sire Protonico, Medina Spirit has five wins, three seconds and one third in nine career starts.

He is coming off a win in the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita last month. "He won that race because he got loose on the lead, and there's little chance he will get loose on the lead on Saturday," Kinchen told SportsLine. Kinchen has Medina Spirit ranked eighth in the nine-horse 2021 Breeders' Cup Classic lineup and will not use Medina Spirit on any tickets.

How to make 2021 Breeders' Cup picks

Kinchen's top pick is a horse who will take advantage of Saturday's pace, sending his backers straight to the payout window. He is using this horse in all of his wagers, and so should you. He's only sharing who to back at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Breeders' Cup Classic 2021? And how has Kinchen structured his wagers? Check out the latest Breeders' Cup Classic odds 2021 below, then visit SportsLine to see Kinchen's picks for the Breeders' Cup Classic, all from the insider who crushed last year's Betting Challenge.
2021 Breeders' Cup Classic odds

Knicks Go 5-2
Essential Quality 3-1
Hot Rod Charlie 4-1
Medina Spirit 4-1
Art Collector 8-1
Max Player 8-1
Tripoli 15-1
Express Train 20-1
Stilleto Boy 30-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:02 AM

Breeders' Cup Classic: Horses, Predictions and Trifecta Pick

One of horse racing's biggest events runs this weekend — the Breeder's Cup Classic at Del Mar Racetrack. Our ponies ace has you covered with a full breakdown of the field and her trifecta in our Breeder's Cup picks and predictions.
Monique Vág

Breeders' Cup weekend is upon us with a stacked card kicking things off Friday, featuring the top fillies and mares, and concluding Saturday, headlined by the $6 million-dollar Longines Breeders' Cup Classic at beautiful Del Mar Racetrack run at the mile-and-a-quarter distance. This annual race is one of the richest in the world.

This year’s Classic is one of the deepest in recent memory and should make for a fun conclusion to stakes season in 2021, which was not shy of controversy.

Our horse racing analyst Monique Vág previews the 2020 Breeders' Cup Classic odds and field horse-by-horse, giving her picks and predictions, including her favorite trifecta for the Saturday, November 6 race.
Breeders' Cup Classic 2021 Trifecta Pick

1. Essential Quality

2. Knicks Go

3. Hot Rod Charlie
Breeders' Cup Classic 2021 Horse Preview
1. Tripoli (Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr, Trainer: John Sadler) - 15/1 odds

Upset winner in the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar two starts back, in only his second try within the Graded Stakes ranks. This was a Breeders' Cup Classic "Win and You're In" race, earning him an automatic berth here. Despite notching a G1 victory, that was a particularly soft group and he meets a much tougher task here.

Big jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr., which is a step in the right direction and should help this horse improve. However, even with the addition of a top jockey, he’s going to need to race substantially better than he ever has thus far in his career to even hope to hit the board versus these caliber horses.
2. Express Train (Victor Espinzoa, John Shirreffs) - 20/1

Well beaten in all of his Grade 1 tries throughout his career. Similar to the rail horse here, he's another one who gets a new jockey on board for the first time in Victor Espinoza, who is no stranger to racing at Del Mar.

Along with his struggles against Grade 1 competition, he's yet to win a race as long as the mile-and-quarter distance he will be contesting on Saturday. Although his running style of stalking the pace is very conducive to putting forth good results if the trip pans out well, he's overmatched, and we’d need a surprise to see this one anywhere near the Top 3.
3. Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat, Doug O'Neill) - 4/1

He's looked great since the removal of blinkers in the TVG Haskell Stakes. Despite crossing the line first, he was ultimately disqualified and placed back to 7th for causing interference down the lane. Outside of that, he's been incredibly consistent this year, hitting the board in five of six races. Another interesting note is putting blinkers back on for Saturday's contest.

What is most appealing is this colt’s versatility - he can win on the front-end rating well, and win from on or off the pace. He's also improving with every single start and has shown a ton of heart and grit.
4. Essential Quality (Luis Saez, Brad Cox) - 3/1

He was the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion at two, putting up a 101 Speed Figure in that outing while capitalizing off a perfect trip from off of the pace. Following that score, he’s progressed nicely while winning eight of nine career races. Although some of his wins aren't by a whole lot, he's as tenacious as they come, with wins off so many different styles of trips. He's also one half of that lethal one-two punch for trainer Brad Cox, who sends out both favorites in Saturday's contest.

With the only blemish on his record a very wide trip in the Kentucky Derby, he enters as the one to beat and will be heard from down the lane. He's set to benefit quite a bit from all of the early speed.

5. Knicks Go (Joel Rosario, Brad Cox) - 5/2

Winner of three straight Graded Stakes races, undefeated racing around two runs, he's as quick as they get and projects to get to the front end very early on. He's a proven stakes winner, and Speed Figure wise, there are no concerns.

He'll take a ton of betting support, and rightfully so - his wins are dazzling and he just may be the fastest one in here, however there are others who will want the lead as well. He may face some heavy pressure early and although he should be able to handle the distance, it is a little concerning he's never raced longer than a mile-and-eighth before.
6. Art Collector (Mike Smith, Bill Mott) - 8/1

He's been perfect since going under the care of trainer Bill Mott, winning three straight races at three different tracks while flaunting his early speed. He draws one post outside of Knicks Go and will likely also be jetting out of the gate to try and secure position upfront early. Although he's looked great when showing off that speed, he can definitely press the pace, or rate just off the lead.

He's also another in here who might have some type of distance concerns. In his one try going longer than a mile-and-eighth he ended up fading late in the Preakness Stakes after being positioned well early.
7. Stilleto Boy (Kent Desormeaux, Ed Moger Jr.) - 30/1

Raced well in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita last time out at a huge price, but unfortunately was no match for Medina Spirit, who won by five lengths. He is one of many in here today that could be a pace factor (at least early on), and might help to make sure fractions are quick.

He's likely to go off as the longest shot on the board again, based on his recent results and minimal graded stakes success and experience.
8. Medina Spirit (John Velazquez, Bob Baffert) - 4/1

Winner of two straight, he's looked great when rating well and getting to the front end early on. Trainer Bob Baffert is no stranger to winning this race - he’s won four of the last seven years. This horse in particular is similar to 2020 winner Authentic in terms of their front running styles and early speed.

He's another entered in here who wants the lead and has more than enough gate speed to get positioned upfront early, but might get out-kicked to the lead by Knicks Go and some other players drawing inside.
9. Max Player (Ricardo Santana Jr., Steve Asmussen) - 8/1

He's already won twice at this distance in the Suburban Stakes and Jockey Club Gold Cup in his two most recent starts, which certainly adds to the appeal. He's also the one horse viewed odds-wise as more of a fringe player who comes into this race very capable of lighting up the toteboard.

I love that he's shown a lot more speed in his two recent outings, and even if he breaks slow like he has in the past, with a smaller field of only eight other rivals, he should be in with a good shot to track them down late, no matter where he's positioned early.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:02 AM

Race of the Week: Goldikova at Del Mar | Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021

November 3, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

GRADE 2 $300,000 GOLDIKOVA STAKES AT DEL MAR

The Lead:
Breeders' Cup Saturday at Del Mar stuffs 9 championship races onto the marquee, as well as a trio of lead-in events. For all your Breeders' Cup handicapping insights, be sure to download the 1/ST Breeders' Cup Wager Guide at 1st.com/guide. We're here to help in the preliminaries, where an interesting clash of turf milers takes place in the Goldikova Stakes.

1/ST BET and Xpressbet offer horseplayers up to a $10 money-back guarantee on win bets in every Del Mar race this Friday and Saturday if your win play finishes second or third. Take advantage of that promotion.

Field Depth:
All 7 of the American entrants are at least graded stakes-placed, paced by Grade 1 winners GOING GLOBAL and ABSCOND. Grade 2 winners include PRINCESS GRACE and BODHICITTA, while Grade 3 winners include ZOFELLE and WARREN'S SHOWTIME. ABSCOND arguably has kept the strongest company lines in the field.

Pace:
The pace figures to be slow with no confirmed front-runners entered. IPPODAMIA'S GIRL may have the most front-end intent, while ZOEFELLE, PRINCESS GRACE and ABSCOND likely will be in the first flight from inner draws. This race will not smile on those trying to close from far, far back; you'll want to be mid-pack or better halfway down the backstretch.

Our Eyes:
PRINCESS GRACE has won 6 of 7 races and is a half-length from perfection in her career. She's done so over 7 different tracks, and the Maryland-based filly's return to Del Mar, where she won August's Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, will be her first repeat visit anywhere. The Mike Stidham trainee has won stalking fast and slow paces, so the tempo likely won't be used against her. She gives from 2-7 pounds to her rivals Saturday.

California-based GOING GLOBAL has won 6 of her last 7, and like PRINCESS GRACE, is a half-length from perfection during that streak. The Irish-bred sophomore takes on her elders for the first time in the Goldikova and comes in fresh, following a handy score in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks in August. She's gotten into some traffic issues at the top of the lane in her last pair, but ace turf pilot Flavien Prat is the rider you want on this course. Under 122 pounds, she'll get in 3 lighter than PRINCESS GRACE.

The West Coast contingent also includes IPPODAMIA'S GIRL, a 2-time course winner who took the restricted Osunitas here this summer; late-running closer BODHICITTA, the 2020 local Yellow Ribbon winner who was fourth to PRINCESS GRACE this summer in her title defense; Cal-bred star WARREN'S SHOWTIME, whose best work has come at Santa Anita; and deep-closing turf sprinter CONSTANTIA on the stretch-out for John Sadler.

Kentucky raiders ZOFELLE and ABSCOND provide regional intrigue. ZOFELLE has been away since June, but did win Gulfstream's Suwanee River earlier this year while coming off a layoff. She appears best on firmer turf and will get that at Del Mar. ABSCOND came within a half-length of PRINCESS GRACE in the Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf. She's a consistent check-getter, but hasn't won a race since the Sept. 2019 Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine.

International flavor will be provided by England's GLESGA GAL. Hugo Palmer brings this one stateside with his Breeders' Cup contingent, and she'll look to snap a 5-race losing streak dating back to May. She was fifth of 12 in the Group 3 Sceptre at Doncaster on Sept. 8, her only major stakes try overseas. Sire Lope de Vega's runners have had much success in the US, and she'll pick up Florent Geroux to ride.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
PRINCESS GRACE has never missed an exacta and has won over the Del Mar course.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
ABSCOND doesn't win nearly often enough, but she's got some pace versatility and classy running lines. She always seems to be in the mix within a few lengths at the wire.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Focus on one of the two favorites and resist the temptation to spread tickets too thin. $50 daily double GOING GLOBAL over LIEUTENANT DAN and KIMARI in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint next on the program.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:02 AM

XBTV Expert Eyes: Who's Tipping Their Hand for the Breeders' Cup?

November 3, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We tasked our expert analysts at XBTV to give us the names of the horses who have caught their eyes as Breeders' Cup approaches Friday and Saturday at Del Mar. Who has stood out in training and/or on video for our crew?
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JEFF SIEGEL
Oviatt Class (Juvenile, Friday Race 9)
Dakota Gold (Juvenile Turf, Friday Race 10)
Malathaat (Distaff, Saturday Race 10)
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ZOE CADMAN
Kaufymaker (Juvenile Turf Sprint, Friday Race 6)
Juju's Map (Juvenile Fillies, Friday Race 7)
Loves Only You (Filly and Mare Turf, Saturday Race 7)
Art Collector (Classic, Saturday, Race 12)
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MICHELLE YU
Armor (Juvenile Turf Sprint, Friday Race 6)
Tarnawa (Turf, Saturday Race 11)
Gufo (Turf, Saturday Race 11)
Max Player (Classic, Saturday Race 12)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:03 AM

Jon White: Breeders' Cup Selections

November 3, 2021 | By Jon White

$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (FRIDAY)

1. AVERLY JANE (5-2 on my official BC morning line)
Undefeated filly with 4 wins by combined 22 1/4 lengths

2. ONE TIMER (4-1)
Undefeated gelding with 3 wins by combined 17 lengths

3. TWILIGHT JET (15-1)
Drew rail (morning line made before post-position draw)

Nice-price danger: TIME TO PARTY (15-1)
Interesting at a nice price, especially with Prat aboard

$2 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES (FRIDAY)

1. HIDDEN CONNECTION (5-2)
Her Thoro-Graph figs are similar to Echo Zulu’s

2. ECHO ZULU (4-5)
Big favorite is trying two turns for the first time

3. JUJU’S MAP (5-2)
Sparkling 4 14-length victory in G1 Alcibiades

Nice-price danger: TARABI (12-1)
Finished second at 19-1 to Echo Zulu in Spinaway

$2 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (FRIDAY)

1. PIZZA BIANCA (5-1)
Not the best of trips in G1 loss at Woodbine

2. CALIFORNIA ANGEL (8-1)
Closed with a rush to win G2 Bessamine

3. MALAVATH (8-1)
Runner-up vs. males in G2 race in France

Nice-price danger: HAUGHTY (10-1)
Conditioned by red-hot Chad Brown

$2 MILLION JUVENILE (FRIDAY)

1. COMMANDPEFORMANCE (5-1)
Another maiden wins this BC race at Del Mar?

2. JACK CHRISTOPHER (9-5)
Champagne victory produced a 102 Beyer

3. CORNICHE (5-2)
$1.5 million buy is 2 for 2 and a G1 winner

Nice-price danger: OVIATT CLASS (20-1)
Sneaky good third in G1 American Pharoah

$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF (FRIDAY)

1. DUBAWI LEGEND (4-1)
Runner-up in G1 in England (post here concern)

2. MODERN GAME (5-1)
Merits much respect off G3 triumph in England

3. ALBAHR (6-1)
Stylish come-from-behind score at Woodbine

Nice-price danger: DAKOTA GOLD (8-1)
Excellent Thoro-Graph fig at Monmouth

$1 MILLION FILLY & MARE SPRINT (SATURDAY)

1. GAMINE (3-5)
She’s 7 for 7 when going 7 furlongs or shorter

2. BELLA SOPHIA (5-2)
Sharp 3-year-old has best shot to upset favorite

3. CE CE (4-1)
Had to settle for third behind Gamine at the Spa

Nice-price danger: NONE

Note: Gamine is my choice as the “most probable winner” at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. My most probable Breeders’ Cup winner has won in 13 of the 17 last years.

I also gave some consideration to making either Life Is Good in the Dirt Mile or Jackie’s Warrior in the Sprint my “most probable winner.” But I ultimately decided Gamine is the right way to go.

I know there are those who think Gamine could be vulnerable this Saturday. Some believe that she is not as good this year as she was last year. But even if that’s true, I would not go so far as to say that the 2021 Gamine is significantly slower than the 2020 Gamine. Keep in mind no one has been able to beat Gamine in 2021. Her closest call so far this year, such as it was, came when she won the Grade I Derby City Distaff at Churchill Downs on May 1 by “only” 1 1/2 lengths. Two of her four victories this year have been by margins of five and 10 lengths.

This year’s Filly & Mare Sprint field was reduced to five with the defection of Estilo Tarentoso. Daily Racing Form’s David Grening reported Tuesday that Estilo Talentoso would not run Saturday “due to an issue with her right fore, according to trainer Juan Arriagada.”

As for Gamine’s remaining four opponents Saturday, she already has defeated two of them.

Ce Ce is a multiple Grade I winner. Gamine outran Ce Ce by three lengths in the Grade I Ballerina Stakes this year at Saratoga.

Edgeway is a very nice filly. She’s won this year’s Carousel Stakes at Oaklawn Park and Grade III Rancho Bernardo Stakes at Del Mar. But in between the Carousel and Rancho Bernardo, Edgeway finished 11 1/4 lengths behind Gamine in the Grade II Great Lady M. Stakes at Los Alamitos.

Sure, Bella Sofia is a talented 3-year-old filly who looks capable of possibly giving Gamine a serious run for her money. Bella Sophia looked terrific when winning the Grade I Test Stakes by 4 1/4 lengths at Saratoga. She then cruised to a 3 1/2-length win against her elders in the Grade II Gallant Bloom Stakes at Belmont on Sept. 26.

But while I think Bella Sofia should be taken very seriously Saturday, I still find it hard to envision her defeating Gamine.

By making Gamine my “most probable winner,” I can’t help but have one little concern due to how poorly favorites fared at the 2017 Breeders’ Cup held at Del Mar. Not a single favorite won any of the seven Breeders’ Cup dirt races in 2017. Only two favorites won the 14 Breeders’ Cup events in 2017. Those two winners were Mendelssohn at 9-2 in the Juvenile Turf and World Approval 5-2 in the Mile.

One of the shortest-priced favorites that lost at the 2017 Breeders’ Cup came in the Filly & Mare Sprint. Unique Bella finished seventh at odds of 11-10.

But while the overall record of favorites and Unique Bella’s performance in the Filly & Mare Sprint left much to be desired, I expect Gamine to take care of business as the heavy chalk in this year’s Filly & Mare Sprint.

Below is a list of my most probable Breeders’ Cup winner for each year going back to 2004:

2020 Golden Pal in the Juvenile Turf Sprint (won)
2019 Midnight Bisou (finished second)
2018 Newspaperofrecord in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (won)
2017 Bolt d’Oro in the Juvenile (finished third)
2016 Dortmund in the Dirt Mile (finished fourth)
2015 Songbird in the Juvenile Fillies (won)
2014 Goldencents in the Dirt Mile (won)
2013 Wise Dan in the Mile (won)
2012 Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint (won)
2011 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2010 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2009 Zenyatta in the Classic (won)
2008 Zenyatta in the Ladies’ Classic (won)
2007 Midnight Lute in the Sprint (won)
2006 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)
2005 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (finished second)
2004 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)

$1 MILLION TURF SPRINT (SATURDAY)

1. GOLDEN PAL (7-2)
Early zip + desirable post = second BC win?

2. GEAR JOCKEY (5-1)
Gaudy 105 Beyer at Kentucky Downs

3. KIMARI (6-1)
Fresh filly should not be taken lightly

Nice-price danger: FAST BOAT (12-1)
Surges late to get into superfecta?

$1 MILLION DIRT MILE (SATURDAY)

1. LIFE IS GOOD (4-5)
His Kelso was pretty much a paid workout

2. GINOBILI (4-1)
Big figs w/ blinkers in Del Mar summer wins

3. SILVER STATE (7-2)
Met Mile winner could prove tough customer

Nice-price danger: EIGHT RINGS (10-1)
Perked up with 4-length SA win for Baffert

$2 MILLION FILLY & MARE TURF (SATURDAY)

1. LOVES ONLY YOU (4-1)
Descendant of 1989 Classic winner Sunday Silence

2. LOVE (4-1)
Major player here after having to miss the Arc

3. WAR LIKE PRINCESS (7-2)
Seeking to extend her winning streak to 5

Nice-price danger: POCKET SQUARE (15-1)
Juddmonte filly seems to be blossoming

$2 MILLION SPRINT (SATURDAY)

1. JACKIE’S WARRIOR (6-5)
Terrific 3yo sprinter looks formidable

2. DR. SCHIVEL (4-1)
Won G2 SA sprint despite no right rein

3. SPECIAL RESERVE (6-1)
A $40,000 claim is now a BC contender

Nice-price danger: FIRENZE FIRE (10-1)
Infamous savager might finish 1-2-3-4

$2 MILLION MILE (SATURDAY)

1. SPACE BLUES (3-1)
Rocketed home to G1 win at ParisLongchamp

2. MO FORZA (5-1)
This dude just loves to win races

3. MASTER OF THE SEAS (12-1)
A 1-2-3-4 finish possible on firm ground?

Nice-price danger: HIT THE ROAD (15-1)
Troubled trip in City of Hope Mile

$2 MILLION DISTAFF (SATURDAY)

1. LETRUSKA (8-5)
Win machine choice despite messed-up workout

2. SHEDARESTHEDEVIL (4-1)
Edged top pick in two-turn Azeri on March 13

3. PRIVATE MISSION (8-1)
Watch out for this up-and-coming 3yo filly

Nice-price danger: AS TIME GOES BY (15-1)
Last more like it for regally-bred miss

$4 MILLION TURF (SATURDAY)

1. TARNAWA (9-5)
Won this race in 2020 for fab horseman

2. DOMESTIC SPENDING (4-1)
Excuse narrow AP defeat due to slow pace

3. WALTON STREET (8-1)
Loved the way he won for fun at Woodbine

Nice-price danger: SISFAHAN (12-1)
German ran second vs. future Arc winner

$6 MILLION CLASSIC (SATURDAY)

1. KNICKS GO (5-2)
He’s 7 for 7 in two-turn races for Cox

2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (3-1)
Classy 3yo is 8 for 9; dandy Oct. 31 drill

3. HOT ROD CHARLIE (4-1)
Snazzy 111 Beyer in Penn Derby triumph

Nice-price danger: TRIPOLI (15-1)
Pac Classic victor makes noise with Irad?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:03 AM

Jeff Siegel's Friday/Saturday Analysis Del Mar 11/5/21

November 4, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 11:55 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-I’ll Stand Taller; 4-Triple Tap; 11-Sumo

Forecast: Trainer Bob Baffert has two major players in this first-level allowance sprint, and both are well-regarded colts with plenty of upside. American Pharoah’s half-brother Triple Tap was late to the party when finally making his debut in mid-March earlier this year. He won nicely over seven furlongs with a strong speed figure, but then disappeared. The son of Tapit returns almost nine months later following a string of sharp workouts while appearing at least as good and perhaps better than he did prior to his first start, and likely will settle in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Stable mate Sumo was a short horse and a tad disappointing when fading to fifth in his debut in early September at Del Mar but left that form behind with an authoritative maiden score at Los Alamitos two weeks later, winning in good style with a sharp number. Comfortably drawn outside and likely to produce another forward move, the son of Not This Time picks up Johnny V. and should find himself in a soft stalking position and then be ready to pounce when called up on. Worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up is I’ll Stand Pat, a progressive son of Square Eddie with rising numbers, a good prompting style, and prior win over the Del Mar main track.

Notable Workouts:

Triple Tap (October 29, Santa Anita, 5f, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B
In blinkers, in company outside Rockefeller (same time) while under a nice hold throughout, splits of :24.1, :35.2 and :59.2 before being allowed to gallop out strongly to the 7/8 pole, up in 1:12 flat on our watches for a full six furlongs. Coming back extremely well, seems fit, and may be an even better type now than he was breaking his maiden at first asking in March.
View Workout Video

Sumo (October 31, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h). Grade: B+
Slightly second best but did quite well working outside Breeders’ Cup-bound Private Mission (5f, :58.4h) for B. Baffert, mostly in hand and never really set down, splits of :23.1, :34.3 and :59 flat, sharp move by lightly-raced son of Not This Time. Plenty of improvement in him with added experience.
View Workout Video

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RACE 2: Post: 12:25 PT Grade: B
Use: 7-Birth of Cool; 8-Ready to Purrform

Forecast: Ready to Purrform arrives with a perfect record (two-for-two), graduating at first asking at Ellis Park by a nose in early September and then improving significantly when scoring handsomely in the Laurel Futurity by more than three lengths despite breaking awkwardly and then being forced to rally far wide from the the three-furlong pole to the wire. The son of Kitten’s Joy picks up J. Rosario for this mile grass event for juveniles that serves as a consolation prize for those not quite up to the B.C. Juvenile Turf. This could be a very nice colt down the road, especially when the distances increase, but for now the B. Cox-trained colt is being allowed to step forward at a proper rate. There’s plenty of early speed signed on to compliment his late-running style so with good racing luck he should be capable of producing the last run. Worth tossing in on a ticket or two at a big price is the maiden Birth of Cool. Unplaced in two career outings but encountering significant trouble in both, the son of Karakontie has much more ability than he’s been able to show and with clear sailing today could easily make his presence felt. The P. Gallagher-trained colt has a good turn of foot, picks up Frankie, and seems a bit better than his morning line of 12-1 gives him credit for.

Notable Workouts:

Birth of Cool (October 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.3h). Grade: B-
A little late changing leads in solo half mile main track drill for Gallagher but did well enough without every being asked, splits of :24.3 and :49.4 on our watches. In good shape but is a much better mover on turf. Has some upside.
View Workout Video

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RACE 3: Post: 12:55 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Big Novel; 6-Big Switch; 9-Vivacious Vanessa

Forecast: Two fillies by Mr. Big from the J. Sadler barn rate a big look in this year’s edition of the Golden State Juvenile Fillies S. over seven furlongs on the main track. Big Novel continued her improving pattern with a pleasing maiden win at Santa Anita last month, showing good tactical speed to the head of the lane and then drawing clear with authority when asked to quicken. On pure numbers she’s the best in the field and likely will continue to step forward, so at 3-1 on the morning she’s clearly the top pick. Her stable mate, Big Switch, won at first asking over the Del Mar main track in late August, doing so from off the pace like a filly that will do nothing but improve with experience and distance. She doesn’t quite match up with Big Novel based on numbers, so it’s understandable that J. Bravo jumps off to ride the favorite, but I. Ortiz, Jr. takes the call and, yes, he’s a pretty good replacement rider. We’ll also toss in the recent debut grass winner Vivacious Vanessa, thoroughly professional in victory three weeks ago but switching surfaces and shortening up while moving into stakes company. She’s another that had J. Bravo in the saddle for her race and today will be accompanied by the highly-capable J. Hernandez, one of trainer G. Mandella’s “go-to” riders. She should be running on strongly late.

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RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Hear My Prayer; 8-Superstition

Forecast: While this year’s renewal of the Senator Ken Maddy S for fillies and mares sprinting five furlongs on grass is highly contentious, we’ve boiled it down to two main contenders. It’s hard to get past Superstition as the top pick and one to beat. A perfect three-for-three over this course and distance, the daughter of Ghostzapper has an excellent stalking style that keeps her free of trouble and a highly-effective closing kick that makes her difficult to contain during the critical late stages of the race. Her victory two runs back in the Daisycutter S. probably beats this field, and with regular pilot F. Prat staying aboard we’re expecting the R. Mandella-trained filly to fire her best shot. Hear My Prayer, a winner of five of 10 career starts, shipped in from Florida during the summer meeting and was quite convincing in victory sprinting on grass in a good allowance race that earned a stakes-quality speed figure. She has enough early speed to turn her rail post position into a positive and can be effective on the lead or from a stalking position. A recent bullet half mile main track workout at Santa Anita in 46 1/5 seconds indicates she’s spot on for a career top effort.

Notable Workouts:

Superstition (October 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B+
Worked in the dark in team drill for R. Mandella inside Sumter (same time) and was under a nice hold throughout while finishing with plenty left while breezing out to the 7/8 pole. On top of her game.
View Workout Video

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RACE 5: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Joker Boy; 11-Slow Down Andy; 12-Finneus

Forecast: Slow Down Andy ran to his good workouts in his smart debut win last month at Santa Anita, employing a pace-pressing style before coming away with authority to register a nearly five length victory while earning a strong speed figure. Two easy breezes since that race should tick him over nicely for this tougher assignment, and with the likelihood that he’ll step forward with that experience behind him the son of Nyquist appears quite capable of winning right back in the Golden State Juvenile S. for California-bred two-year-olds. He’s drawn nicely outside and should have no issue with today’s extra three-sixteenths of a mile. Joker Boy was eliminated at the start when stumbling badly and subsequently was eased in the American Pharoah S.-G1 last month at Santa Anita. Prior to that outing, the son of Practical Joke won his first two starts sprinting over the Del Mar main track, including the I’m Smokin’ S. in a race that produced a strong speed figure, one good enough to make him a major player despite today’s disadvantageous rail post. He adds blinkers, picks up Johnny V., and seems likely to have a strong pace presence throughout. Finneus was another that was overmatched in the American Pharoah S.-G1 when well-beaten by Corniche but shortens to one corner and faces considerably easier state-bred foes, so we’re expecting the son of Stay Thirsty to regain his best form. During the summer season he was a distant but decent runner-up in the Del Mar Futurity-G1 over this track and distance, and with the switch to J. Rosario he should be able to produce a sufficient late kick to at least hit the board.

Notable Workouts

Joker Boy (October 17, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, broke off a few lengths in front of Touchdown Brown (5f, 1:00.3h) and was ridden some in the closing stages to wind up head-and-head at the wire, splits of :24.3, :36.3 and 1:01.1, okay move, nothing flashy. Sprints only at this stage for stakes winning juvenile.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Post: 2:50 PT Grade: B
Use: 8-Averly Jane; 9-One Timer; 11-Derrynane

Forecast: Based on the nature of the Del Mar turf course in five-furlong sprints that presents a quick run from the starting gate to the far turn and an extremely short stretch (817 feet), handicappers must identify those horses with excellent early speed along with those that can be within range and then produce the quick turn of foot required to maneuver through heavy traffic in the final furlong. Deep closers have an almost impossible task, so we’ll concentrate on those with tactical speed. Two proven abbreviated sprint specialists with the proper style for the race are a pair of unbeatens, the W. Ward-trained filly Averly Jane and One Timer, conditioned by L. Rivelli. Averly Jane, perfect in four starts and most recently a winner of the listed Indian Summer S. at Keeneland in her first try on grass, is quick but can produce a second move when challenged in the stretch. Furthermore, she’s shown she’s not a need-the-lead type, having won the Kentucky Juvenile S. in her second career outing from a stalking position. Her numbers are solid – not brilliant, but good enough – and she won coasting to the wire in the Indian Summer while giving indication that she could have reached back for something extra had it been required.

One Timer is three-for-three, having won at Arlington Park and Woodbine (both all-weather races) and then most recently at Santa Anita, where he captured Speakeasy S. with a Beyer speed figure (70) that doesn’t do him justice. The running line suggests that he barely held on in the Speakeasy but in truth he was waiting on his competition and actually galloped out far in front after re-breaking past the wire. The Trappe Shot gelding has shown he can dish out heat and take it as well, and everything he has done in the morning since his last race indicates he has plenty more to give.

Derrynane, like Averly Jane a filly tackling the boys, perhaps is the most dangerous of the closers. She’s likely going to have plenty to do from the top of the stretch to the wire will need good fortune to secure a clear path through traffic, but if the leaders do each other in this daughter of Quality Road had a chance at what should be a substantial price. At least she’s worth including underneath in the horizontal exotics.

Notable Workouts

Averly Jane (October 31, Keeneland, 4f, :53.2b TC DU). Grade: B +
Broke off a length in front of Golden Pal (4f, :53.1b TC DU) for Ward and finished down the lane head-and-head over soft going, both under wraps while appearing sharp and eager. Undefeated filly looks terrific and may be the one beat in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Post: 3:30 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Hidden Connection; 5-Echo Zulu

Forecast: Undefeated in three starts, each by daylight and each more impressive than the previous race, two-time Grade 1 winner Echo Zulu tries two-turns for the first time, but based on running style, pedigree, and everything else we can throw in the hopper this terrific 2-year-old filly shouldn’t be the least bit inconvenienced by today’s longer distance. While she gives the impression of being a quick-actioned, sprinter type, the S. Asmussen-trained filly can switch off early and explode late while always providing regular jockey R. Santana, Jr. with the easiest of rides. The daughter of Horse of the Year and leading first-crop stallion Gun Runner has trained like she’ll have plenty more to give whenever asked. She’ll be a logical short-priced favorite to win this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Hidden Connection has won her first two outings by a combined 17 lengths, most recently the two-turn Pocahontas S.-G3 two-turning at Churchill Downs. We can question the quality of the competition she has beaten so far while recognizing that the B. Calhoun-trained daughter of Connect has a dangerous second flight, stalking style that should she keep her trouble free and give her every chance to show what’s she’s made of. We have to think she has the best chance among the others to provide Echo Zulu with some competition.

Notable Workouts:

Echo Zulu (October 31, Del Mar, 4f, :50.1h). Grade: B
Never asked at any stage in easy solo breeze, final quarter mile in :24.3. Plenty fast but not speed crazy and should stay a middle distance in her present mindset.
View Workout Video

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RACE 8: Breeders’ Cup Fillies Juvenile Turf. Post: 4:10 PT Grade: B+
Use: 6-Hello You, 9-Koala Princess; 13-Mise En Scene

Forecast: The European contingent for this year’s renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is reasonably formidable but you may be surprised to know that over the years foreigners have badly underperformed in this particular race. Only two overseas shippers have been successful in the 13-year history of the event, though Mise En Scene, a Group-3 stakes winner in three career starts and an unlucky fourth last time out in the Fillies Mile-G1, has credentials to be quite dangerous. The English-bred daughter of Siyouni lacked a clear path when attempting to rally at Newmarket yet still finished a strong fourth in a race that produced a career top Timeform rating. She should easily handle Del Mar’s firm ground while the race’s two-turn trip should be of no concern, either.

That said, we’ll stick with the North American-based Koala Princess as our top pick. Thoroughly convincing in both of her wins, a runaway maiden score on the front end at Monmouth Park followed by an off-the-pace victory (rallying from eighth of 11) in a valuable listed sprint stakes at Kentucky Downs, the daughter of More Than Ready is genuine and versatile. She switches off beautifully in the early stages of her races and then quickens instantly when called upon, so we’re expecting she’ll be even more comfortable as the distances increase.

While Koala Princess and Mis En Scene will receive the bulk of our action, we’ll have a saver ticket or two that includes Hello You, a seasoned European import fresh from a noteworthy score in the 7F Rockfel S.-G2 over the testing (uphill late) Newmarket straightaway course on firm ground in late September. She has plenty of experience (six starts) and Timeform ratings that our fairly decent. Not much improvement, if any, will be needed to make her dangerous right off the plane.

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RACE 9: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Post: 4:50 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Jack Christopher; 3-Oviatt Class; 10-Commandperformance; 12-Corniche

Forecast: The Eclipse Award in the 2-year-old division will be determined along with winter book favoritism for the 2022 Kentucky Derby in Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1, which brings together two unbeaten colts, Corniche from the West and Jack Christopher from the East, and several other highly promising colts from the Midwest and various other parts of North America. One thing we’re fairly convinced of is that California’s Corniche is quicker than New York’s Jack Christopher leaving the gate and will be fully committed to be on the lead or at least pressing the pace, whereas ‘Christopher will be content to settle in the second flight if the early pace flow so dictates. Make no mistake, Jack Christopher has proven to be an exceptional colt up to a one-turn mile but as a son of Munnings from a mare by Half Ours he’s no sure thing to improve as the distances increase. Full credit to the colt and his connections if he wins, but at a short price we have lingering doubts.

As for Corniche, there will be no rating tactics employs. He’s a fast colt, a need-the-lead type, and trainer B. Baffert won’t be doing any experimenting. The son of Quality Road, a $1.5 million purchase at the OBS Sale in April, sizzled in his debut sprinting over the Del Mar main track while recording a sensational 98 Beyer speed figure but came back to earth when scoring in gate-to-wire fashion over a strongly biased pro-speed track at Santa Anita in the American Pharoah S.-G1 in his next appearance, earning a somewhat pedestrian 85 Beyer in that victory. Yes, we still like Corniche, but recognize he could be vulnerable due to a volatile pace scenario.

So, let’s take a close look at the two most dangerous closers in the field. Oviatt Class, a four-length maiden winner at Del Mar at mile, made up a ton of ground against the bias to finish a better-than-looked third in the American Pharoah, has trained extremely well since, and represents a genuine threat over a track we know he likes and at a distance that should promote his style. Is he good enough? On paper, maybe not yet, but such are the things that make long shots pull off upsets, especially when you’re dealing with a developing two-year-old sired by Bernardini, whose offspring generally mature later on. Also worth consideration is Commandperformance, a twice-started maiden that closed with courage to finish second to Jack Christopher in the Champagne S.-G1 and seems certain to improve with age, experience, distance, and development, as one would expect from a son of Union Rags. Like Oviatt Class, he’ll need a pace meltdown to have his best chance. It could happen.

Notable Workouts:

Jack Christopher (October 29, Belmont Park, 5f, 1:00.4b). Grade: B+
Breezing every step of the way outside Gerrymander (same time, also under a tight hold) and looked quite sharp as usual, plenty left while appearing eager and right on edge. Can he handle two turns? Hard to be sure (bred to sprint) but may be able to stay a middle distance on class alone.
View Workout Video

Oviatt Class (October 23, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B+
Broke off a few lengths behind Miss Everything (5f, 1:01.3h) and inhaled workmate in the final furlong while under some coaxing, plenty left late splits of :23.4, :35.3 and 1:00.1 for Desormeaux. Stretch runner appears to be improving all the time and broke his maiden over the Del Mar main track during the summer season. Will be rolling late in the B.C, Juvenile.
View Workout Video

Corniche (October 23, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B+
In company inside Enbarr (same time) and did nicely without being asked, splits of :23.1, :48 and 1:00.3 while traveling from the half mile pole to the seven furlong pole, solid work. Maintains his form, probably a need-the-lead type at this stage of his career.
View Workout Video

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RACE 10: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Modern Games; 3-Dakota Gold; 6-Mackinnon; 10-Potfolio Company

Forecast: Modern Games is listed at 5-1 on the morning line and represents an excellent gamble at that price. The tight Del Mar turf course with a short run-in from the top of the stretch to the wire always is problematic and it never should be surprising when the best horse is beaten due to traffic, but this European colt has the type of natural talent and acceleration to win this year’s renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, His rail post position will allow for a ground-saving trip, but he’ll need to be extracted somewhere during the running – preferrable before the field heads up home – to secure his best chance. The C. Appleby-trained son of Dubawi was scintillating in victory at Newmarket in late September when winning the Sommerville S.-G3 while earning an outstanding Timeform rating of 102, and while today will be his first try over a mile the extra distance should only make him more formidable.

Dakota Gold appears to be the most dangerous of the North American contingent. Undefeated in two starts and highly impressive in both, the New York-bred son of Freud won the listed Nownownow S. over a mile on grass at Monmouth Park in his most recent appearance, drawing away with authority despite losing ground while wide most of the way. The D. Gargan-trained colt is drawn comfortable in the three-hole and with a clean break should find himself much closer to the pace than last time, perhaps even as a pace-stalker or presser. He’s highly-competitive on numbers and has plenty of further improvement in him.

Mackinnon, trained locally by D. O’Neill, has won his last three starts in visually pleasing style, with two of those victories accomplished over the same course and distance as today’s race. Not quite as fast on speed figures as Dakota Gold but developing with each outing, the son of American Pharoah likes to settle in mid-pack and then blast home, and with clear sailing from the head of the lane to the wire he’s certain to have a say in the matter in the closing stages. He’s looked terrific in the a.m. in recent weeks, so it’s not likely we’ve seen anything close to his best quite yet.

Notable Workouts:

Mackinnon (October 30, Del Mar, 6f, 1:14.4h). Grade: A-
Can’t verify the official final time but we caught him from the quarter pole to the wire in a sparkling :22.4 without really being asked, full of run while gobbling up the ground in the late stages. Gets better every time we see him.
View Workout Video

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Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Workout Report, Analysis, & Wagering Strategies
Saturday, November 6, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 10:15 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-One Fast Bro; 7-Via Egnatia

Forecast: One Fast Bro has never been off the board in five starts over the Del Mar turf course and has been no worse than second in each of his last four starts, including a solid runner-up try at this level last month at Santa Anita to subsequent Twilight Derby winner Subconscious. Drawn nicely inside and therefore guaranteed a ground-saving trip, the California-bred son of Coil is fast on figures and projects to settle somewhere in mid-pack and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. Via Egnatia is raised in class following a pair of recent mid-level claiming victories that earned decent speed figures. He’ll have to step forward to seriously challenge top pick but if the R. Baltas-trained gelding isn’t policed on the front he could take this field a very long way. His record over the local lawn – two wins in four starts – is another positive factor. The bulk of our action will go to One Fast Bro, but we’ll have tickets using both in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 2: Post: 10:50 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Lone Rock; 3-Cupid’s Claws; 4-Tizamagican

Forecast: These main track marathons are few and far between, but they’re always fun to watch, if not wager on. Lone Rock, listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite, was beaten at 10 cents on the dollar in the Grand Prix American Jockey Club S. at Belmont Park in mid-September, going down by length to his same-owner stable mate, the 18-1 long shot Locally Owned. The veteran son of Majestic Warrior and had no visible excuse, but he had won his previous four outings in dominating fashion so let’s operate under the assumption that he’ll bounce back today, though at 6/5 on the morning line he’ll offer little wagering value. Tizamagician, a proven marathoner and especially fond of the Del Mar main track, turned in a career top performance when runner-up to Tripoli in the Pacific Classic and then was below form when fifth after rating tactics were employed in the Awesome Again S.-G1 earlier this month. The son of Tiznow is more than capable of returning to winning form in this lesser assignment and likely will be on or near the lead throughout. Cupid’s Claws appears to be rounding back to form after finishing a close sixth (beaten less than two lengths) in the John Henry Turf Cup-G2 last month. A quality dirt marathoner when he’s on his game, the Kitten’s Joy gelding switches to L. Saez and offers decent price value at 6-1 on the morning line.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:25 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Princess Grace; 7-Going Global

Forecast: Princess Grace and Going Global are difficult to separate. They’re both high class, thoroughly professional race mares who loved to win races, though on pure numbers a very slight edge might have to be given to ‘Grace. The daughter of Karakontie has been beaten just once in seven starts – she was second in the Valley View S-G3 at Saratoga after a premature move – and she’s already ventured to Del Mar once this year, having taken the Yellow Ribbon H.-G2 with a career top speed figure. K. Desormeaux, who was aboard in that win, reprises his role and most likely will have the M. Stidham-trained filly settled comfortably in the second flight before setting her down when the time is right. Going Global, a 3-year-old filly tackling older foes for the first time, has won five of six starts since being imported from Ireland. Most recently, she produced a strong victory in the Del Mar Oaks-G1 and has done extremely good work in the a.m. since that score to keep her right on edge. In a race we’d rather watch than wager on, both should be included in rolling exotic play, with a narrow edge on top to Princess Grace.

Notable Workouts:

Going Global (October 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h). Grade: B+
Broke off several lengths behind Coulthard and Hollywoodhellraisr (both 5f, 1:00h TT) and closed the gap through the lane to finished lapped on the other two without ever being asked in a highly-impressive training track drill for P. D’Amato, splits of :24.1, :36 flat and :59.3, full of run late. Razor sharp and ready to fire another big shot.
View Workout Video

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RACE 4: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Post: 12:05 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Gamine

Forecast: Gamine almost certainly will be the shortest-priced favorite in the two-day, 14-race Breeders’ Cup carnival. The public choice in every one of her races, never having closed at odds higher than even money. she’s a winner of nine of 10 outings, the defending race champion, perfect in four starts at this seven-furlong distance, and the likely controlling speed, though she can just as easily stalk and pounce if required. When last seen in late August at Saratoga, the daughter of Into Mischief captured the Ballerina H.-G1 despite wanting to lug out through the lane, and the B. Baffert-trained filly might be vulnerable if she pulls the same stunt at Del Mar, though it should be noted that in her recent workouts she has breezed straight and true for the most part. Simply put, the only way she loses is if she somehow beats herself.

While Bella Sofia usually appears somewhat ordinary in her morning trials, the bargain basement $20,000 Ocala June Sale purchase is an entirely different performer when the lights go on. Successful in five of six career starts and a facile winner of the Test S.-G1 in her only prior outing at seven furlongs, the R. Rodriguez-trained filly isn’t nearly as fast as Gamine on pure numbers, but her figures continue to rise with each start, so a career top performance (which she will need to make a race of it) seems possible. We suspect she’ll wind up a distant second choice in the wagering over Ce Ce, a genuine and versatile West Coast Grade-1 winner but a non-threatening third behind Gamine in the Ballerina S.-G2 two races back and with just one triple-digit Beyer speed figure in her 15-race career.

Notable Workouts:

Gamine (October 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B
Easy work, breaking off several lengths behind Ginja (5f, 1:01.4h) and going on by when ready under very light coaxing only, splits of :24.2, :48 flat and 1:00.3 for B. Baffert. Not a scintillating work but more than good enough; will be odds-on in the BC Filly & Mare Sprint.
View Workout Video

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RACE 5: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Post: 12:40 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Lieutenant Dan; 5-Arrest Me Red; 6-A Case of You; 10-Gear Jockey

Forecast: Races at five furlong over the Del Mar turf course that offer a short run in from the top of the stretch to the wire present a near impossible task for the deep closers and an extremely difficult one for those not able to be within striking range right from the bell. Traffic can be a huge issue in a 14-runner field. Horses that save ground somewhere in mid-pack and wait for an opening must possess an electric turn of foot when the opportunity presents itself. Taking the overland route isn’t necessarily advised either, though at least those rallying wide have the opportunity to build momentum. Jockeys who are not accustomed to the short stretch often wait until the field straightens for home to make their move, but by then it’s often too late. Best place to be? On a clear early lead (that would be lovely), in a pace-stalking position, or in the second flight in the middle lanes, where a jockey can choose a viable path - either inside or outside - depending upon where and when room develops.

It’s more than likely that the group with finish in a heap, so a spread strategy in rolling exotic play is required. Whether or not he’s good enough remains to be seen, but the lightly raced and rapidly improving Arrest Me Red has the style and profile for the course and upside that some of the others might not have. A winner of four of six career starts, including the recent Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational-G1 with a career top 100 Beyer speed figure (making him a solid threat based on that number alone), the son of Pioneerof the Nile can win on the lead or from a stalking position, so if he has the good fortune to break running the W. Ward-trained sophomore will almost certainly have every chance to fire his best shot. We actually like him quite a bit better than his lower-priced stable mate Golden Pal, who is the quicker of the two but is slower on speed figures and vulnerable under pressure in the final furlong.

A Case of You arrives fresh from a career top performance when winning the prestigious Prix de l’Abbaye-G1 over the five-furlong straightaway course at Longchamp. Very much like Arrest Me Red, he’s a 3-year-old with rapidly improving form. Interestingly, he was assigned a Timeform rating of 122 in that victory, eight points better than what Glass Slipper earned in her win in that same race last year. He’s not particularly quick during the early stages of his races and as such may be taking the worst of it at Del Mar, but it’s safe to say that his closing kick matches anything in the field and with good racing luck the Irish-bred colt has a chance to make some serious noise in the final furlong.

Lieutenant Dan is a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar course and distance, and while we’ve never considered him to be a world class grass sprinter, this California-bred gelding is a winner of four of his last five starts and has speed figures that fit. He’s proven to be quick enough to secure a favorable early position and generally provides a second move under pressure close home, so we’ll respect the S. Miyadi-trained gelding enough to include him on our ticket.

Gear Jockey earned a career top speed figure winning a Grade-3 sprint stakes at Kentucky Downs in mid-September, but the Del Mar course and distance couldn’t be more different, so we really can’t use that race to promote his chances under these conditions. However, the son of Twirling Candy has a dangerous late kick and could make an impact if the pace types falter and he get the opportunity to build up his moment with clear sailing from the head of the lane to the wire. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him at least hit the board.

As for Glass Slippers, she reproduced the same electric closing kick that had resulted in her 2020 victory at Longchamp when pulling off a 10-1 surprise in the B.C. Turf Sprint last year. She’s back to defend her crown, but she had an extra half-furlong and a longer stretch to work with at Keeneland and benefitted from a rather fortunate journey to register the upset from off the pace. Winless in three starts this year and under the conditions that really don’t suit her style at Del Mar, the English-bred mare is bet-against.

Notable Workouts:

Lieutenant Dan (October 29, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h TT). Grade: B
Usually a lazy sort in the a.m. but went well (for him) in this solo half mile training track drill, late changing leads but finishing with a bit more interest than usual, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :36.2. Always fires his best shot when it counts and is perfect over the Del Mar turf course.
View Workout Video

Arrest Me Red (October 31, Keeneland, 4f, :51.4b TC DU). Grade: B
Breezing work around dogs over soft course stalking Kaufymaker (4f, :52b, TC DU) and finishing down the lane with that one, both under a tight hold with both appearing to be eager and have plenty of energy. Sharp breeze despite slow final time.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Post: 1:30 PT Grade:
Use: 3-Ginobili; 5-Life Is Good

Forecast: It appears that Life Is Good has no chinks in his armor. Perhaps for the purpose of finding “value” you may be inclined to try to beat the obvious heavy favorite in this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, but as hard as we’ve looked, we can locate nothing on his resume that suggests he won’t fire his best shot. Clearly the speed of the speed, this gifted front-runner showed in his 2-year-old debut last year that he can easily cope with Del Mar’s main track when he crushed maidens by more than nine lengths. During the winter, he won both of his two-turn races - each at the expense of subsequent Kentucky Derby-G1 first place finisher Medina Spirit – before suffering an injury that prevented a Triple Crown campaign. Beaten in a photo in a superlative effort off the bench by Jackie’s Warrior in the H. A. Jerkens Memorial S.-G1 at Saratoga in August in his first start in almost six months for new trainer T. Pletcher, the son of Into Mischief didn’t have any negative reaction from that tough, grueling effort. He returned to toy with his outclassed foes in the Kelso H.-G2 in late September in a race that was strategically chosen to easily tick him over for this much more important event.

Ginobili was always cut out to be a decent sort of racehorse – he finished a close second to undefeated Nadal in the 7F San Vicente S.-G2 as a 3-year-old – but it’s only been in his last two starts that the son of Munnings has truly become a legitimate top-class main track miler. Both of those outstanding victories, a runaway allowance win followed by an equally sharp performance in the Pat O’Brien S.-G2, were accomplished over the quirky Del Mar dirt surface. Local players know that there is no track on the West Coast in which the horse-for-course angle plays a more significant role in the handicapping process than at Del Mar. For that reason alone, you have to afford the R. Baltas-trained gelding something of a legitimate look and therefore use him as a small saver or a back-up in rolling exotic play.

Notable workouts:

Life Is Good (October 29, Belmont Park, 4f, :49.3b TT). Grade: B+
Under a stout hold throughout, full of run for T. Pletcher while being kept on edge for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Ready for a career top performance, it would seem.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Rougir; 6-Love; 7-War Like Goddess; 8-Love Only You; 12-Audarya

Forecast: There have been several excellent renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, but none as deep and contentious as this one, at least in recent years. There are at least five in the field that could, or should, be favored and are very difficult to separate. Love, believed to be only a small notch below Breeders’ Cup Turf-G1 favorite Tarnawa, was pre-entered in that race as well as the B.C. Filly & Mare Turf-G1, with trainer Aidan O’Brien ultimately opting to keep the daughter of Galileo with the girls. A five-time Group-1 winner in England but somewhat disappointing in her last three winless starts, she nonetheless is more than capable of winning a race of this quality with her top performance. The $1.8 million earner (and a winner of seven of 14 career starts) has the type of tactical speed that should keep her within striking range no matter how the pace flow unfolds, and while she was tagged right on the wire when nosed out as the favorite in the Blandford S.-G3 at The Curragh last time she hit the front too soon and probably doesn’t even know she lost. If there is a concern, is that her blood wasn’t right earlier in the month, necessitating her withdrawal from a scheduled appearance on Champions Day at Ascot earlier this month. She’s been deemed healthy enough by trainer A. O’Brien to have made the trip the Del Mar, so we’ll approach this race under the assumption she’s set to perform to high her standards.

War Like Goddess can’t quite boast the glitzy resume that Love can, but that doesn’t mean that she’s not just as good. Successful in six of seven career starts, her last three by daylight with ease and confidence, the daughter of English Channel owns an intense turn of foot that can neutralize any type of pace flow. According to her speed figures, she has produced a forward move in every one of her career starts and may need another one to defeat Love. But there’s no reason to believe she can’t rise to the occasion.

Audarya is the defending B.C. Filly & Mare champion, having won this race at Keeneland last year at odds of 17-1. She won’t be that price today. Her extreme outside post position number 12 is of no concern for a filly that will lag early and explode late, and though she was a close fourth to Rougir in the Prix de l’Opera-G1 in France last month over heavy ground, today’s firm grass course should bring out her best. Winless in five starts this year but with Timeform ratings that say she’s every bit as good now as ever, the French-bred filly is a “must use” at 5-1 on the morning line.

Love Only You showed her quality last winter on the world’s stage when finishing a superb third – beaten just a half-length – behind Mishriff in the Dubai Sheema Classic, then went to Hong Kong to win a Group-1 race less than a month later. The pride of Japan, a winner of six of 14 races arrives fresh after 10 weeks of vacation time and if she brings her best stuff she’s more than capable of winning.

If you have room on your rolling exotic ticket, you probably should consider including Rougir, at least as a back-up or a saver. Her recent win at Longchamp was well-earned, though a case could be made that the deep going promoted her chances. She’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line, a decent sort of price for a Group-1 winning French filly who has won or been beaten a neck or less in each of her last four starts.

Notable Workouts:

War Like Goddess (October 31, Del Mar, 4f, :48.1h). Grade: B+
Worked alone on main track while displaying plenty of energy and looking as good as ever, final quarter mile without being asked in a sharp :23.3. Has never taken a backward move according to her speed figures and looks ready for another career top in the B.C. Filly & Mare Turf.
View Workout Video

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RACE 8: Breeders’ Cup Sprint Post: 2:38 PT Grade:
Use: 2-Jackie’s Warrior; 9-Dr. Schivel

Forecast: After a brief flirtation with distance racing early in 2021 to determine his viability for the spring classics, Jackie’s Warrior was returned to his roots as a dominating one-turn specialist and is every bit deserving of his 6/5 favorite’s role in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1. Thoroughly impressive when earning terrific speed figures in each of his last three outings, all wins, the S. Asmussen-trained colt most recently was assigned a career top 110 Beyer number when capturing the Gallant Bob S.-G2 under wraps. However, it was his performance two runs back that was his most impressive. In stalking and then out-finishing the brilliant Life Is Good in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial S.-G1 at Saratoga, the son of Maclean’s Music displayed championship qualities that are expected to continue under regular rider J. Rosario in a race that he projects to control from gate to wire.

Dr. Schivel is comfortably drawn on the far outside, which means the gifted son of Violence can pop and go or stalk and pounce. He’ll need a significant amount of improvement to put a scare into Jackie’s Warrior, but the twice-beaten in seven starts sophomore is a perfect three-for-three over the Del Mar main track and thus owns the home court advantage. Whether or not he’s good enough can be questioned but from all indications – including his appearance and his workouts – the M. Glatt-trained colt is prepared for a career top effort. He is worth including somewhere on your ticket for protection.

Notable Workouts:

Jackie’s Warrior (October 31, Del Mar, 3f, :36.4h). Grade: B+
Under a hammerlock through the lane while appearing ready to explode, final quarter mile in :24.3. Should handle the Del Mar main track without any issues.
View Workout Video

Dr. Schivel (October 30, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.2h). Grade: B+
Broke off behind Deservedly (5f, :58.3h) and finished down the lane with workmate to be head-and-head at the wire, splits of :23.2, :34.3 and :58.2, niggled at late, solid work for high class sprinter who always seems to save his best for the afternoon. Loves the Del Mar main track and will lay his body down when trying to stay with Jackie’s Warrior.
View Workout Video

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RACE 9: Breeders’ Cup Mile. Post: 3:20 PT Grade: A-
Single: 3-Space Blues

Forecast: Simply stated, European invader Space Blues is an exceptional racehorse and is superior to his North American counterparts. A winner of 10 of 18 career starts, including seven of his last 10 (all in top class stakes company), the five-year-old son of Dubawai will be stretching out to a mile for the first time following a recent series of outstanding seven furlong performances, but he should have no problem with today’s extra distance and in fact gives every indication that he’ll be quite comfortable over the Del Mar turf course’s tight layout and the extremely firm ground that it offers. From a good inside draw, world class jockey W. Buick can settle somewhere in mid-pack with cover and sit still to the far turn, at which time he’ll need to find room to allow the C. Appleby-trained horse to uncork the type of acceleration than none of his rivals can match. He’s the morning line favorite at 3-1 and deservedly so. Somewhere along the sequence we have to take a stand, and it’s in this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Mile that we will do just that. There’s always a traffic issue to worry about in a 14 runner event over a course with a short run to the wire after the field straightens for home but with any degree of good racing luck, we’re confident the Irish-bred veteran will deliver the goods in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Malathaat; 6-Letruksa

Forecast: Letruska has won 17 of 22 races during her career, including six out of seven in 2021, and will deserve plenty of support in the year-end voting for Horse of the Year. She is as genuine and consistent as they come and is the deserved 8/5 morning line favorite for this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1. Always most effective as the controlling speed, the Kentucky-bred daughter of Super Saver will once again be on the front end, though there are others in the field, such as Private Mission, Horologist, and Shedaresthedevil, that will allow no breathers along the way. She will have to earn it.

Malathaat, clearly the best 3-year-old filly in North America, steps out of her comfort zone as she faces older mares for the first time, and, yes, she will need a career top effort to defeat Letruska and the others. We think she is capable of doing just that. A winner of six of seven career outings including three Grade-1’s, she has been freshened since winning the Alabama S.-G1 at Saratoga in August and has trained like a filly that is both physically and mentally ready to take on the new challenge. Most of Curlin’s offspring get better with age, maturity, and distance, and this T. Pletcher-trained 3-year-old seems primed to make the next leap. Based on the projected race flow, Johnny V. can settle somewhere in the second flight behind those that will be dealing with Letruska during the early stages of the race. He’ll move closer as the field enters the far turn. Then he’ll push the button. We’ll be gambling that she’ll provide the proper response.

Notable Workouts:

Malathaat (October 29, Belmont Park, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B+
Breezing throughout outside Vindictive (same time) for T. Pletcher, never asked a drop while proving best late by a long head. Couldn’t be looking any better, ready for a career top performance.
View Workout Video
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RACE 11: Breeders’ Cup Turf. Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B+
Use: 7-Walton Street; 8-Broome; 13-Tarnawa

Forecast: European shippers have won 17 of the past 22 renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, so it makes perfect sense to first focus on the foreign contingent in researching and handicapping this $4,000,000 mile and one-half marathon. Defending race champion Tarnawa returns to defend her crown and based on her current form appears to be every bit as good this year as last. She’s fresh, too, having had just three starts in 2021. A winner of a Group-3 affair in Ireland in early August in her seasonal bow, she next ran arguably the best race of her career when narrowly missing to likely European Horse of the Year St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion S.-G1 the following month. Then, most recently, the D. Weld-trained mare lost nothing in defeat when second, beaten less than a length, in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe-G1 at Longchamp three weeks ago. Effective on any ground but quite comfortable over the extremely firm, pool table-type grass track at Del Mar, the five-year-old mare is blessed with an intense turn of foot and can be expected to produce a winning late kick, assuming she has the good fortune of to avoid traffic trouble from the top of the stretch to the wire.

At seven years of age, the English-based Walton Street has never been better. His 119 British Race Form figure earned in his nearly six-length romp in the Canadian International S.-G1 at Woodbine in mid-September was a career top, and to place that in context with our top pick, that rating was just three points below the one assigned to Tarnawa in her recent ‘Arc runner-up performance. The C. Appleby-trained gelding is hardly out of his element against world class competition and is a “must use” somewhere on your ticket.

Price players may want to toss in Broome. Why not include a European-based, Group-1 winning millionaire trained by A. O’Brien and ridden by Frankie? Originally listed at 20-1 on the morning line (he may go lower after the scratch of the major contender Domestic Spending), the five-year-old stayer has Timeform ratings that fit with most of these and will offer value in the vertical exotics even if he just manages to hit the board.

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RACE 12: Breeders’ Cup Classic. Post: 5:40 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Hot Rod Charlie; 4-Essential Quality; 8-Medina Spirit

Forecast:This much we’re certain of: Knicks Go will attempt to employ his usual gate-to-wire tactics in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1. How many of his nine wins were accomplished when he failed to make the early running? That number would be zero.
But unlike in his three most recent dominating front-running victories - the Corn Husker H.-G3, the Whitney S.-G1, and the Lukas Classic-G1 - the other main players in this race aren’t simply going to hand him the front end on a silver platter. This time, he’ll have to work to get the lead and work even harder to keep it. Medina Spirit, himself victorious in five of nine career outings, each in wire-to-wire fashion, may not be as committed to the front as Knicks Go, but there’s no way he’ll be backing off early. In fact, if Medina Spirit can somehow outrun Knicks Go early as his connections certainly hope he can, the B. Baffert-trained colt may be quite capable of reproducing his runaway score in the Awesome Again S.-G1, the race last month that produced his highest-rated victory in a career that remains highlighted by his first place finish in the Kentucky Derby-G1.

Where does the projected race flow leave Hot Rod Charlie? Probably in an ideal second flight, stalking position, similar to the trip he enjoyed when crossing the wire first in the Haskell Invitational G-1, a victory that was taken from him due to the carelessness of his jockey, F. Prat, who caused a mid-stretch spill. ‘Charlie returned to win the Pennsylvania Derby-G1 in September with a career top 111 Beyer speed figure that Knicks Go has exceeded just once in his 23-race career and four points better than anything Medina Spirit has ever achieved. A string of typically strong recent workouts suggests the D. O’Neill-trained colt still has additional improvement in him, and at anywhere near his morning line of 4-1 the son of Oxbow offers excellent wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

Essential Quality, the colt that edged Hot Rod Charlie in the Belmont S.-G1 and then subsequently won both the Jim Dandy S.-G2 and Travers S.-G1, remains the leader for an Eclipse Award in the 3-year-old colt division, but in his first start since late August the son of Tapit surely will need a career top effort to win what is expected to be his final career race. He’s been beaten just once in nine lifetime outings – he was fourth without mishap behind Medina Spirit in the Kentucky Derby-G1 – and while we may question the ceiling of his natural talent there’s no doubting his will. Our first inclination was to leave him off our ticket, but we’re doing that with Knicks Go., so for now, he’s on. He’s simply too good of a racehorse.

Notable Workouts:

Hot Rod Charlie (October 30, Del Mar, 7f, 1:26.4h). Grade: B+
Broke off behind Khantoro d’Oro (5f, 1:01.2h) and after using that one as a target easily drew clear through the under mild coaxing before traveling out all the way around to the six furlong pole, :24.3, :36.3, 1:00 flat (to the wire) and 1:12.3 to the seven furlong pole before galloping out in 1:26.3. Coming up to the Classic as good as one would want.
View Workout Video

Medina Spirit (October 29, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:11.3h). Grade: B+
In company inside Ax Man (same time) for B. Baffert while working from the five furlong pole around to the seven furlong pole, splits of :24.1, :35.3, :59.2 and 1:11.3, easy to the top then mildly coaxed through the lane to prove a tad the best in yet another strong drill. Comes up to the Classic with a strong foundation and is plenty fit for his best effort.
View Workout Video

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:04 AM

Breeders’ Cup Late Pick 4 Analysis & Wager

November 4, 2021 | By Johnny D

Breeders’ Cup is the annual time to take your best shot at some deep fields of talented horses. Horseplayers don’t get chances like this very often, so we’d love to take advantage of a limited opportunity. For certain, there’s nothing easy about handicapping BC races. Horses arriving from around the world make sorting out Cup contenders a bit like trying to find matching socks in the dark. There’s lots of touch and feel, some guessing, but little clarity and no certainty.

Best advice? Fine one or two runners that you really like. Hang your hat on them and spread in races where you feel unsure about outcomes. One thing’s for sure, there will be surprise winners. Always are. If you can be skilled and lucky enough to create tickets that lean on your best opinions and also include aggressive winners at big prices, riches can be yours.

A life changing score? Well, guess that depends on your life, doesn’t it? From this corner of the room we’ll be happy cashing a ticket or two Friday and Saturday. We’ve spent past BC Sunday’s licking wounds. We’ve also spent some celebrating in another country after a big hit. Know what? We don’t remember any of the wound-licking specifics, but we sure do recall how sweet the margaritas tasted by that private pool.

Below is one man’s humble opinion of Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Late Pick 4 and suggested tickets.

Drink up!

9th Race
Mile -- $2 Million
Three-Year-Olds & Upward
One Mile (Turf)

Overview: Last year, for only the second time in history, Euro-based runners finished 1-2-3 in this race. Don’t think that will happen again in this talent-rich, deep renewal. A couple of locals must be considered, especially since there doesn’t seem to be an abundance of early speed. North American-based runners, as reported in Xpressbet’s Free Breeders’ Cup Wager Guide, hold a 22-15 edge over invaders and there have been 10 filly or mare winners.

#1 Master of the Seas is a 3-year-old colt that hails from the recently torrid Charlie Appleby outfit. He was seventh in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot in October at 11-1. He’s only started twice since May—also third in the Gr. 2 Unibet Joel Stakes in September. We know enough not to lightly dismiss anything trained by Appleby. The rail should guarantee a ground saving trip for this guy and if he should get through on the inside…? In a wide-open race he should be considered.

#2 Smooth Like Straight is a Cal-based 4-year-old who’s finished second to #6 Mo Forza in his last two races. Like ‘Mo, this guy is a tough competitor with 7 wins in 18 starts, 6 seconds and 2 thirds. He’s been first or second in 5 out of 5 Del Mar starts and 8 of 9 first or second at the distance! You may beat him, but you’ll know you’ve been in a fight. This colt also has some early speed in a race without much of that and with this post position should be in a great spot throughout.

#3 Space Blues is a Charlie Appleby runner (also #1 Master of the Seas) that won his last start—Group 1 Quatar Prix de la Foret at Longchamp by 2 lengths. That was over a ‘heavy’ course and Del Mar’s layout will be the opposite of that. No matter, this 5-year-old horse is in great form—he won the race before that, too—so he has to be considered in the Mile. He races from off the pace, so he’ll need a trip and he could get overplayed based on his recent success in Europe. A winner of 10 of 18 with 3 seconds and 1 third, he can’t be dismissed but may not be a great bargain is he takes too much money.

#4 Raging Bull is a 6-year-old trained by Chad Brown. Normally, that’s enough for anyone to include this horse on their tickets. The complete horse has 1 win this year and 1 last year against top stateside competition. He comes from off the pace and will need to get lucky with a clear trip. Rolling the dice with this 1 for 1 at Del Mar runner isn’t the worst idea but he’ll need things to break well for him.

#5 Vin De Garde arrives from Japan to find a deep field of foes. This 5-year-old horse was second in the Gr. 1 Dubai Turf at Meydan in March going one mile and one-eighth. He’s more familiar with the one-mile trip and has 4 wins in 10 starts there. He would be surprise winner…and we know BC has had those.

#6 Mo Forza is a pro with 8 wins in 14 starts, 3 seconds and 1 third. He’s had physical issues and only started twice this year—both wins. He loves Del Mar – 3 for 6 with 2 seconds and the distance 6 for 8 with 1 second. He’s got a 4-race winning streak that stretches to August of ’20. A defeat in the one mile and three-sixteenths Gr. 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (too far) is the only blemish on what could be an impressive 8-race winning streak! There are so many things to like about this guy that we’ve got him as our top pick and a ‘must use’ in here.

#7 In Love was razor sharp in winning the Gr. Keeneland Turf Mile last out at 12-1. This 5-year-old gelding has now won 3 in a row for low-profile trainer Paulo Lobo and comes from well off the pace. He will need to get lucky turning for home to find room for his late kick. Along with others, he may find the short-ish Del Mar stretch a challenge.

#8 Hit the Road has won 6 of 12 overall, 2 of 4 at Del Mar and 6 of 11 at the distance. He’s got a nice style, too, that should find him just off the early pace. He’s been trouble prone and a clear trip would enhance his chances. Mile foes #6 Mo Forza and #2 Smooth Like Straight have gotten the best of him in the last 2 but by slim margins. If one likes either ‘Mo or ‘Smooth, and we do, we’ve got to give this fellow some consideration.

#9 Mother Earth is a 3-year-old filly making her ninth start of ’21. That’s quite a bit of racing for a young Euro-based lady. Facing older foes is nothing new for her—her last five races have been in open competition and her most recent—fifth in the Gr. 1 Queen Elizabeth II came against older males. Overall, she’s just 3 for 16 and at the end of a long season.

#10 Blowout is a front-running Chad Brown-trained 5-year-old mare who took the Gr. 1 First Lady at Keeneland in wire-to-wire fashion. She’s won 5 of 14—2 of those wins this year after 3 second-place finishes in as many tries last year. There’s not a lot of speed in here and that gives her a bit of a puncher’s chance to hang around.

#11 Got Stormy is a 6-year-old mare who’s won 2 of 5 this year. She has some tactical pace in a race without much of that. She defeated males most recently in the Gr. 1 Four Star Dave at Saratoga. She’s 1 for 1 at Del Mar and 10 for 20 at the distance. At six, we’re not in love with her chances but contention runs deep in this race and she’s a pro.

#12 Pearls Galore stretches out from a runner-up finish in the Gr. 1 Prix de la Foret against males last out to this one mile journey at Del Mar. That’s nice progression for this 4-year-old filly with 4 wins in 11 starts. That race was over ‘heavy’ ground and the firm Del Mar course could be more suitable to the multiple Gr. 3 winner. She just missed in the one-mile Gr. 1 Justify Matron Stakes in Ireland. She’s under the radar in here but we like that prep. The post does her no favors, however.

#13 Casa Creed has no speed and last won the six-furlong, Gr. 1 Jaipur in June at Belmont. He was also pre-entered in the Turf Sprint and often falls between route and sprint cracks. Just 2-12 at the distance.

#14 Ivar is one of two Lobo-trained runners in here. This 5-year-old horse hasn’t won since taking the Gr. 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland last year, just before finishing fourth in the BC Mile. He was just two lengths behind upset winner Order of Australia. He’s made just two starts this year, so one wonders if he’s as good as he was last season.

Also Eligible
#15 Real Appeal needs a defection to draw into the race and this post will be a ‘killer’ going one mile on turf at Del Mar.

#16 Queen Supreme is a 5-yearold mare that was well beaten last out in Great Britain. She is a Group 1 winner in South Africa and would have her hooves filled in the Mile while breaking from this outside post position.

Must Use: #6
Chances: #1, #2, #3, #7, #8

Race 10
Distaff - $2 Million
Fillies & Mares, Three-Years-Old & Upward
One Mile & One-Eighth

Overview: The Distaff could be the crowning of Letrushka as the top filly or mare in North America…or, the race could produce a stunning upset of the top ranked mare. #1 Private Mission will have oodles to say about how this one turns out. 24 of 37 winners of this race have been 3-1 odds or less, including in 9 of 14 events in California. Kentucky-based trainers have won the last 4 Distaffs and 3-year-olds have win the race 11 times.

#1 Private Mission is a 3-year-old filly from the Bob Baffert stable with early speed and the rail. That’s a dangerous combination. Add to the mix that this filly has won her last 3 starts—most recently a pair in graded races—and you have the makings of an upset possibility. This filly needs to improve to defeat #6 Letrushka, for sure, but she’s young, sharp, CA-based and in the hands of a Hall of Fame trainer. If she doesn’t win, she at least will make #6 Letrushka work early.

#2 Royal Flag is a 5-year-old, Chad Brown-trained mare coming off a strong win in the Gr. 2 Beldame. She’s won 6 of 12 lifetime and been a victim of Letrushka’s twice before, although she’s been close to the favorite. A sharp filly or mare always is a danger and if #1 Private Mission can make #6 Letrushka hustle up front…maybe it sets up for this mare.

#3 Malathaat is a 3-year-old filly with 6 of 7 wins to her credit. She’s likely to be reasonably close to Letrushka in the early going as jockey John Velazquez won’t want to let the favorite get too far away. Malathaat will need to continue to improve to topple the giant and probably need help up front to soften up #6 Letrushka.

#4 Blue Stripe makes a first US start in here from native Argentina. She’s a mystery horse who’s been in the country for a long while, training in California and pointing for this race. If she can win the Distaff of an extended layoff…salute!

#5 Clairiere exploded with her best race ever when winning the Gr. 1 Cotillion at Parx last out. That effort either was a one-off performance or the start of something big. She comes from off the pace and would appreciate an up-front melt down. This field is much better than the one she faced outside of Philly but a sharp 3-year-old filly is not to be trifled with.

#6 Letrushka is a deserving favorite and is expected to make it 6 wins in a row and 7 of the last 8. She’s a speedy mare who dares foes to either run with her early or catch her late. She’s had a long season—7 races this year with breaks in Feb., May, July and September. She’s clearly the one to beat and, while there are suitable challengers with upset-minded connections, she’s probably going to be a handful.

#7 Horologist is a 5-year-old mare with speed that will hound favored #6 Letrushka early. That strategy may not help this runner, as she gets a bit late in races, but it may help some of the others in here.

#8 Shedaresthedevil is a 4-year-old filly with 9 wins in 16 starts, a Del Mar victory in 2 tries and a win at the distance in 2 attempts. She’s trained by Brad Cox, the man of this year and last. She’s got speed and will stalk #6 Letrushka and #1 Private Mission early, waiting for one or both to crack. If they do…she’ll attempt to pounce like she did in winning the Gr. 1 Clement Hirsch here at Del Mar in August.

#9 As Time Goes By is trained by Bob Baffert and appears to be headed back toward her best. She finished second to stablemate #1 Private Mission last out. She’ll need to keep progressing to win this.

#10 Marche Lorraine invades from Japan and would surprise.

#11 Dunbar Road closed well to be second to #6 Letrushka last out at Keeneland. She also was unable to run down the Distaff favorite in the Gr. 1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga. To this 5-year-old mare’s credit she’s been close. She’s another that would appreciate a hot pace battle up front.

Pace Makes the Race: #1, #6
Late: #2, #5, #8, #11

Race 11
Turf - $4 Million
Three-Year-Olds & Upward
One Mile & One-Half (Turf)

Overview: There’s not much speed in this race, but what’s there should keep things honest enough up front. 9-5 favorite and defending champ Tarnawa is drawn in the 13 hole and that could pose a problem for her. Euros have won 17 of the last 22 Turfs, 5 of the last 6 and 7 of 14 in California. Race favorites have been in the top 3 finishers the last 6 years. 5 fillies or mares have won the race, 3 of the last 6.

#1 Rockemperor probably will save ground from this rail position for trainer Chad Brown. He’s a 5-year-old with a sharp last out Gr. 1 Turf Classic win that fits pretty well in here. It was the best race of a 20-start career, so he’s either back on track or knocked out by the run. In Brown’s hands he could just be finding his best stride again. He’s 1 for 3 at the distance and a big price.

#2 United loves Del Mar – 3 wins, 2 seconds in 6 starts and has 1 win and 2 seconds at the distance. Most recently he earned a nose victory in the Gr. 2 John Henry Turf Cup. That was a good effort and at 6-years-old is still posting relative numbers in every other race. This is not one of the ‘other’ races. He was eighth in this event last year but nearly shocked the world when second at 50-1 in the Turf in ’19.

#3 Domestic Spending is a 4-year-old from the Chad Brown stable with 6 wins in 8 starts. This guy’s always right there and can’t be dismissed, even at a new distance. He has a win in his only Del Mar turf start. He’s earned the right to be on your Turf ticket.

#4 Astronaut has advanced steadily for trainer John Shirreffs and won the Gr. 2 Del Mar Handicap last out. He comes from off the pace and will need to improve more to have a big say in here. He’s one of those you could use in exotics in case he makes another forward step.

#5 Tribhuvan is a 5-year-old Chad Brown-trained performer with 5 wins in 20 starts. He’s got some pace in a race without much of that other than from #6 Acclimate. Expect these two to lead the field as far as they can go. Left alone on the lead this gelding is dangerous, but he should have company early.

#6 Acclimate will set the pace for the Turf but it’s doubful he can last at this distance where he’s 0-3. The 7-year-old is just 1 for 6 over the Del Mar turf.

#7 Walton Street scored a huge win for hot trainer Charlie Appleby last out in the Gr. 1 Canadian International. That was the 7-year-old’s first race in North America, and he was a short-priced favorite. Recent Timeform Ratings suggest he fits on his best day, and he’s clearly feeling well. This season he’s had the best form in a long time. He’s 5 of 13 at the distance and a victory would strike a blow for greybeards everywhere.

#8 Broome exits a poor finish in the Gr. 1 Arc and has had a long season with 9 starts. Obviously, the 5-year-old horse is hickory, but it’s asking a lot to cross the pond for the Turf after such a long campaign. Still, it’s Aidan O’Brien and he knows what’s what.

#9 Sisfahan is an interesting option based on a runner-up effort in the Gr. 1 Preis von Baden behind eventual Arc winner Torquator. This 3-year-old French-bred and mostly German-raced colt has 2 wins in 6 tries and has never been worse than third. He comes from well off the pace, so he’ll need some luck but his form is interesting.

#10 Yibir scored a powerful romp in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational at Belmont last out for trainer Charlie Appleby. His figs are a bit light for this, so he’d need to do better, but the 3-year-old gelding has won 5 of 11 and 2 of 3 at the distance. The post is a concern.

#11 Gufo disappointed as favorite last out in the Gr. 1 Turf Classic at Belmont. Before that he won two races, including the Gr. 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga. He’s won 2 of 3 at the distance and was third in his only Del Mar appearance. He’s a fit on his best day, but that last effort isn’t inspiring for the 4-year-old.

#12 Teona is a 3-year-old filly with a pair of wins over her elders in the ungraded August Stakes at Windsor and in the Gr. 1 Prix Vermeille at Longchamp. Her figs are slow (although the last was a Timeform Rating of 110. Favored Tarnawa hits in the 125 range.) She’s young, lightly raced and sharp so she’s worth a look at a price. That 12-hole is no bargain.

#13 Tarnawa won this race at nearly 5-1 odds last year. The 5-year-old mare has raced just 3 times since, with a Gr. 3 win and a pair of Gr. 1 near misses, including last out in the Arc. She’s tough and so is the #13 post going around 3 turns at Del Mar. That’s a challenge she didn’t have last year when drawn inside. At a short price, she’s worth trying to beat.

#14 Japan is from Great Britain and starts for Aidan O’Brien. He was second to #11 Gufo in the Gr. 1 Sword Dancer and then didn’t fire in the Turf Classic behind #1 Rockemporer. Tough post for him going around 3 turns.

Also Eligible
#15 Bolshoi Ballet will need help to draw into the race and will be up against it from this post going three turns. He won the Gr. 1 Belmont Derby in July but hasn’t scored in two US tries since.
#16 Channel Maker is a 7-year-old who’s been off his best for a while.
#17 Mogul will need several defections to find himself up against it from an outside post.
#18 Friar’s Road needs help to make the starting lineup.

Use: #3, #9
Others to Consider: #4, #7, #10, #12

Race 12
Classic - $6 Million
Three Year Olds & Upward
One Mile & One-Quarter

Overview: Who can run with #5 Knicks Go early? Answer that question and you’ll have a better idea of what might happen at the finish of this race. We think he’s the fastest early and late in here and something will need to go very wrong for him to lose. Cal-based runners have won 7 of the last 14 Classics on the west coast…but not the last 2. 8 consecutive winners have been 6-1 or less.

#1 Tripoli came to life when moved from turf to dirt. He’s another example of a horse who clearly appreciates one surface over the other. He was capable on the turf, but is a Gr. 1 Pacific Classic winner on dirt—over the surface and at the distance of the BC Classic! Runners he will face Saturday are much stronger than those he defeated here in August and he was over 8 lengths behind Medina Spirit in the Gr. 1 Awesome Again last out.

#2 Express Train likes Del Mar—3 wins in 5 tries—and often finds the top three in races—11-14 at least third. His best races are a smidge below what he’ll need to win this one and he was 7 lengths behind Medina Spirit last out.

#3 Hot Rod Charlie has developed wonderfully for trainer O’Neill and won the Gr. 1 Pa Derby last out. He’s one of the leaders of a strong 3-year-old division and would bolster his case for divisional honors with a win here. He’s usually close to the early pace and that’s probably where he’ll be again with local leading rider Prat. This colt has been beaten by two of these foes twice each, so he’ll need to turn the tables on them and defeat some strong older horses. That’s a lot to ask but this guy’s development and running style give him some chance to win and make him a probable in-the-money player.

#4 Essential Quality is the current top 3-year-old on the basis of 5 out of 6 wins this season. His only loss came when fourth, beaten one length, in the Kentucky Derby. He’ll again face 2 that finished in front of him—8 Medina Spirit and 3 Hot Rod Charlie. This colt has enough speed to sit just behind whatever early pace might develop. Jockey Luis Saez will ask the question turning for home and expect a response similar to the one he’s gotten in five races and not the one he experienced at Churchill Downs.

#5 Knicks Go has speed and, while others in the lineup have gas, no one has enough to really run with him. That’s where this race will be decided. How fast will Knick’s Go need to go to keep clear of the early competition? If he does what he’s done in 4 of 6 starts this year and get a clear early lead, he’s going to win. If he’s hooked, he’s shown to be vulnerable. While several in here are successful front runners, we don’t see another horse with his kind of speed. If we’re right about that, he’ll race home well in front to conclude BC festivities.

#6 Art Collector has won 3 consecutive races since moving to Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott’s barn. He’s won those races on or near the lead and pretty much been a front-running type of horse. He’ll be facing more quality early speed in this race than he has in any of his 8 lifetime victories, so there’s a question how he’ll respond to the challenge.

#7 Stilleto Boy was second and third behind #8 Medina Spirit in his last two starts. This is a deeper field so he will be challenged like never before.

#8 Medina Spirit is the Kentucky Derby winner who’s been able to continue to win for Bob Baffert, defeating older in the Awesome Again at Santa Anita last out. He’s 1 for 1 at Del Mar and won the Shared Belief in his next-to-last start. He’s been most successful taking the early lead and grinding foes into submission. He’s not as fast early as Knicks Go, so he’ll probably sit second behind that one and they could go 1-2 around the oval. Of course, if Knicks Go stubs his toe, Medina Spirit will be in a perfect spot to pass him late.

#9 Max Player is an improving 4-year-old colt that won the Gr. 1 Jockey Club last out for trainer Asmussen. He’s much better this year than last when fifth in the postponed Derby and Preakness. Has he improved enough to challenge in here? Maybe. He’s run the kind of races recently that suggest he at least fits. He should stalk the early pacesetters and have his chance to close in the lane. Mostly, his improvement has us interested in him as an exacta chance.

Catch Him To Win: #5
Should Run Well: #3, #8, #9

The Tickets
($.50) Late Pick 4 ($30)
Race 9: #1, #2, #3, #6, #7, #8
Race 10: #1, #6
Race 11: #3, #4, #7, #9, #12
Race 12: #5

($.50) Late Pick 4 ($15)
Race 9: #6
Race 10: #1, #2, #5, #6, #8, #11
Race 11: #3, #4, #7, #9, #12
Race 12: #5

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:05 AM

AI Picks: National Stakes Races | Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021

November 5, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Beyond the Breeders’ Cup, the national stakes lineup Saturday offers some great betting races. To assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

Belmont Park // Race 7 // 3:15 pm ET // $100,000 Chelsea Flower Stakes // 1-1/16 miles

#1 Shad Nation (5-2) // 32%W
#2 Kneesnhips (12-1) // 18%W
#8 Lady Milagro (30-1) // 9%W
#5 Caironi (6-1) // 9%W

//

Gulfstream Park // Race 10 // 5:20 pm ET // $65,000 Showing Up Stakes // 1 mile 70 yards

#8 Fighting Force (4-1) // 30%W
#12 Officiating (10-1) // 17%W
#1 Moonlite Strike (8-1) // 11%W
#4 Arzak (6-1) // 7%W

//

Golden Gate Fields // Race 10 // 7:52 pm ET // $50,000 Joseph T. Grace // 1-1/16 miles

#2 Camino Del Paraiso (1-1) // 32%W
#9 I’mgonnabesomebody (10-1) // 18%W
#3 Loafer’s Boy (15-1) // 9%W
#4 Big Fish (12-1) // 9%W

//

Saturday 11/6/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 11/6/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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