Saturday 11/6/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 06:10 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

November 6, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has a 13-race program set for tonight and the 0.50 Early Pick 4 begins in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Captain Cowboy (7/2)-Winner in 5 of 8 this year has been idle since returning from Lexington after racing on 10-9. Not sure if this gelding will be dialed on high but it's risky to leave off the ticket. Drawing the rail shouldn't hurt and Zeron can work an efficient journey.
8-Hammering Hank (9/5)-Raced big in the BC Final from post 8 to finish a close 4th and now drops into a more comfortable spot. Won the last 2 times versus this kind as an odd-on choice. Pelling trainee rolled the back half in 55.1 in the Final and that was the 1st time racing on a sloppy track.

Race 7

2-Valentina Blu (5-1)-Was scratched sick before the BC elims and laid an egg in that race and the Final. Before that, raced well against tough customers and will look for a rebound here at a solid price.
3-Danznqueen Hanover (7/2)-Hasn't sealed the deal in 3 M1 starts this year but comes into the race off a sharp effort on 10-28 at Phl. Coming off a recent race could be an advantage versus this group.
4-Misswalner Fashion (3-1)-Didn't do well in either Lex start and now returns to the Big M where she has been very good hitting the board in all 4 starts with 3 pictures. This looks like a bounce back opportunity.
5-Little Pink Lies (6-1)-Winner of 2 straight should be in the hunt for a 3-peat. Won at this level on 9-17 and that was her only series start, so could be sitting on a big try.

Race 8

3-Captain Barbossa (3-1)-Alagna 4-year-old was the beaten favorite in 4 of 12 starts, as was the case last week. Tough to leave out and should be bet down again but can't fully trust.
4-Workin Ona Mystery (4-1)-Was in tall cotton in the Crown races but this is a spot to post only the 2nd win in 13 tries this year. Tetrick should be out and rolling and have this Burke trainee forwardly placed.
8-Shoobee Doo A (7/2)-Has raced 3 times at the Big M and has done well hitting the board in all 3 starts. Every M1 race has been on an off-track. The post helps the price, and this is a beatable field. Callahan will have the pedal down and he could land on top or get a pocket ride.

Race 9

5-JL Cruz (7/2)-Raced well in the 2nd start off the bench to finish 2nd from post 10 last week. Losses Dunn to #3, a Norman entry but that horse is 0-14 at M1. Will use Cruz coming off a nice try and TMac can provide a good steer. This veteran loves the Big M winning 26 of 76 starts.
6-Ab'sattitudexpress (8-1)-This race isn't easy to untangle. Trixton mare has won 5 of 16 here and this is the best post draw in a while. Lands in a softer spot and was Tetrick's pick over the Cullipher entry #1. Often Tetrick leans toward Cullipher so maybe that choice is one to take notice.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,8/2,3,4,5/3,4,8/5,6
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 06:12 AM

Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Wagering Strategies - November 6, 2021

November 6, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 10:15 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-One Fast Bro; 7-Via Egnatia

Forecast: One Fast Bro has never been off the board in five starts over the Del Mar turf course and has been no worse than second in each of his last four starts, including a solid runner-up try at this level last month at Santa Anita to subsequent Twilight Derby winner Subconscious. Drawn nicely inside and therefore guaranteed a ground-saving trip, the California-bred son of Coil is fast on figures and projects to settle somewhere in mid-pack and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. Via Egnatia is raised in class following a pair of recent mid-level claiming victories that earned decent speed figures. He’ll have to step forward to seriously challenge top pick but if the R. Baltas-trained gelding isn’t policed on the front he could take this field a very long way. His record over the local lawn – two wins in four starts – is another positive factor. The bulk of our action will go to One Fast Bro, but we’ll have tickets using both in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 2: Post: 10:50 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Lone Rock; 3-Cupid’s Claws; 4-Tizamagican

Forecast: These main track marathons are few and far between, but they’re always fun to watch, if not wager on. Lone Rock, listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite, was beaten at 10 cents on the dollar in the Grand Prix American Jockey Club S. at Belmont Park in mid-September, going down by length to his same-owner stable mate, the 18-1 long shot Locally Owned. The veteran son of Majestic Warrior and had no visible excuse, but he had won his previous four outings in dominating fashion so let’s operate under the assumption that he’ll bounce back today, though at 6/5 on the morning line he’ll offer little wagering value. Tizamagician, a proven marathoner and especially fond of the Del Mar main track, turned in a career top performance when runner-up to Tripoli in the Pacific Classic and then was below form when fifth after rating tactics were employed in the Awesome Again S.-G1 earlier this month. The son of Tiznow is more than capable of returning to winning form in this lesser assignment and likely will be on or near the lead throughout. Cupid’s Claws appears to be rounding back to form after finishing a close sixth (beaten less than two lengths) in the John Henry Turf Cup-G2 last month. A quality dirt marathoner when he’s on his game, the Kitten’s Joy gelding switches to L. Saez and offers decent price value at 6-1 on the morning line.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:25 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Princess Grace; 7-Going Global

Forecast: Princess Grace and Going Global are difficult to separate. They’re both high class, thoroughly professional race mares who loved to win races, though on pure numbers a very slight edge might have to be given to ‘Grace. The daughter of Karakontie has been beaten just once in seven starts – she was second in the Valley View S-G3 at Saratoga after a premature move – and she’s already ventured to Del Mar once this year, having taken the Yellow Ribbon H.-G2 with a career top speed figure. K. Desormeaux, who was aboard in that win, reprises his role and most likely will have the M. Stidham-trained filly settled comfortably in the second flight before setting her down when the time is right. Going Global, a 3-year-old filly tackling older foes for the first time, has won five of six starts since being imported from Ireland. Most recently, she produced a strong victory in the Del Mar Oaks-G1 and has done extremely good work in the a.m. since that score to keep her right on edge. In a race we’d rather watch than wager on, both should be included in rolling exotic play, with a narrow edge on top to Princess Grace.

Notable Workouts:

Going Global (October 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h). Grade: B+
Broke off several lengths behind Coulthard and Hollywoodhellraisr (both 5f, 1:00h TT) and closed the gap through the lane to finished lapped on the other two without ever being asked in a highly-impressive training track drill for P. D’Amato, splits of :24.1, :36 flat and :59.3, full of run late. Razor sharp and ready to fire another big shot.
View Workout Video

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RACE 4: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Post: 12:05 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Gamine

Forecast: Gamine almost certainly will be the shortest-priced favorite in the two-day, 14-race Breeders’ Cup carnival. The public choice in every one of her races, never having closed at odds higher than even money. she’s a winner of nine of 10 outings, the defending race champion, perfect in four starts at this seven-furlong distance, and the likely controlling speed, though she can just as easily stalk and pounce if required. When last seen in late August at Saratoga, the daughter of Into Mischief captured the Ballerina H.-G1 despite wanting to lug out through the lane, and the B. Baffert-trained filly might be vulnerable if she pulls the same stunt at Del Mar, though it should be noted that in her recent workouts she has breezed straight and true for the most part. Simply put, the only way she loses is if she somehow beats herself.

While Bella Sofia usually appears somewhat ordinary in her morning trials, the bargain basement $20,000 Ocala June Sale purchase is an entirely different performer when the lights go on. Successful in five of six career starts and a facile winner of the Test S.-G1 in her only prior outing at seven furlongs, the R. Rodriguez-trained filly isn’t nearly as fast as Gamine on pure numbers, but her figures continue to rise with each start, so a career top performance (which she will need to make a race of it) seems possible. We suspect she’ll wind up a distant second choice in the wagering over Ce Ce, a genuine and versatile West Coast Grade-1 winner but a non-threatening third behind Gamine in the Ballerina S.-G2 two races back and with just one triple-digit Beyer speed figure in her 15-race career.

Notable Workouts:

Gamine (October 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B
Easy work, breaking off several lengths behind Ginja (5f, 1:01.4h) and going on by when ready under very light coaxing only, splits of :24.2, :48 flat and 1:00.3 for B. Baffert. Not a scintillating work but more than good enough; will be odds-on in the BC Filly & Mare Sprint.
View Workout Video

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RACE 5: Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint Post: 12:40 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Lieutenant Dan; 5-Arrest Me Red; 6-A Case of You; 10-Gear Jockey

Forecast: Races at five furlong over the Del Mar turf course that offer a short run in from the top of the stretch to the wire present a near impossible task for the deep closers and an extremely difficult one for those not able to be within striking range right from the bell. Traffic can be a huge issue in a 14-runner field. Horses that save ground somewhere in mid-pack and wait for an opening must possess an electric turn of foot when the opportunity presents itself. Taking the overland route isn’t necessarily advised either, though at least those rallying wide have the opportunity to build momentum. Jockeys who are not accustomed to the short stretch often wait until the field straightens for home to make their move, but by then it’s often too late. Best place to be? On a clear early lead (that would be lovely), in a pace-stalking position, or in the second flight in the middle lanes, where a jockey can choose a viable path - either inside or outside - depending upon where and when room develops.

It’s more than likely that the group with finish in a heap, so a spread strategy in rolling exotic play is required. Whether or not he’s good enough remains to be seen, but the lightly raced and rapidly improving Arrest Me Red has the style and profile for the course and upside that some of the others might not have. A winner of four of six career starts, including the recent Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational-G1 with a career top 100 Beyer speed figure (making him a solid threat based on that number alone), the son of Pioneerof the Nile can win on the lead or from a stalking position, so if he has the good fortune to break running the W. Ward-trained sophomore will almost certainly have every chance to fire his best shot. We actually like him quite a bit better than his lower-priced stable mate Golden Pal, who is the quicker of the two but is slower on speed figures and vulnerable under pressure in the final furlong.

A Case of You arrives fresh from a career top performance when winning the prestigious Prix de l’Abbaye-G1 over the five-furlong straightaway course at Longchamp. Very much like Arrest Me Red, he’s a 3-year-old with rapidly improving form. Interestingly, he was assigned a Timeform rating of 122 in that victory, eight points better than what Glass Slipper earned in her win in that same race last year. He’s not particularly quick during the early stages of his races and as such may be taking the worst of it at Del Mar, but it’s safe to say that his closing kick matches anything in the field and with good racing luck the Irish-bred colt has a chance to make some serious noise in the final furlong.

Lieutenant Dan is a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar course and distance, and while we’ve never considered him to be a world class grass sprinter, this California-bred gelding is a winner of four of his last five starts and has speed figures that fit. He’s proven to be quick enough to secure a favorable early position and generally provides a second move under pressure close home, so we’ll respect the S. Miyadi-trained gelding enough to include him on our ticket.

Gear Jockey earned a career top speed figure winning a Grade-3 sprint stakes at Kentucky Downs in mid-September, but the Del Mar course and distance couldn’t be more different, so we really can’t use that race to promote his chances under these conditions. However, the son of Twirling Candy has a dangerous late kick and could make an impact if the pace types falter and he get the opportunity to build up his moment with clear sailing from the head of the lane to the wire. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him at least hit the board.

As for Glass Slippers, she reproduced the same electric closing kick that had resulted in her 2020 victory at Longchamp when pulling off a 10-1 surprise in the B.C. Turf Sprint last year. She’s back to defend her crown, but she had an extra half-furlong and a longer stretch to work with at Keeneland and benefitted from a rather fortunate journey to register the upset from off the pace. Winless in three starts this year and under the conditions that really don’t suit her style at Del Mar, the English-bred mare is bet-against.

Notable Workouts:

Lieutenant Dan (October 29, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h TT). Grade: B
Usually a lazy sort in the a.m. but went well (for him) in this solo half mile training track drill, late changing leads but finishing with a bit more interest than usual, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :36.2. Always fires his best shot when it counts and is perfect over the Del Mar turf course.
View Workout Video

Arrest Me Red (October 31, Keeneland, 4f, :51.4b TC DU). Grade: B
Breezing work around dogs over soft course stalking Kaufymaker (4f, :52b, TC DU) and finishing down the lane with that one, both under a tight hold with both appearing to be eager and have plenty of energy. Sharp breeze despite slow final time.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Post: 1:30 PT Grade:
Use: 3-Ginobili; 5-Life Is Good

Forecast: It appears that Life Is Good has no chinks in his armor. Perhaps for the purpose of finding “value” you may be inclined to try to beat the obvious heavy favorite in this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, but as hard as we’ve looked, we can locate nothing on his resume that suggests he won’t fire his best shot. Clearly the speed of the speed, this gifted front-runner showed in his 2-year-old debut last year that he can easily cope with Del Mar’s main track when he crushed maidens by more than nine lengths. During the winter, he won both of his two-turn races - each at the expense of subsequent Kentucky Derby-G1 first place finisher Medina Spirit – before suffering an injury that prevented a Triple Crown campaign. Beaten in a photo in a superlative effort off the bench by Jackie’s Warrior in the H. A. Jerkens Memorial S.-G1 at Saratoga in August in his first start in almost six months for new trainer T. Pletcher, the son of Into Mischief didn’t have any negative reaction from that tough, grueling effort. He returned to toy with his outclassed foes in the Kelso H.-G2 in late September in a race that was strategically chosen to easily tick him over for this much more important event.

Ginobili was always cut out to be a decent sort of racehorse – he finished a close second to undefeated Nadal in the 7F San Vicente S.-G2 as a 3-year-old – but it’s only been in his last two starts that the son of Munnings has truly become a legitimate top-class main track miler. Both of those outstanding victories, a runaway allowance win followed by an equally sharp performance in the Pat O’Brien S.-G2, were accomplished over the quirky Del Mar dirt surface. Local players know that there is no track on the West Coast in which the horse-for-course angle plays a more significant role in the handicapping process than at Del Mar. For that reason alone, you have to afford the R. Baltas-trained gelding something of a legitimate look and therefore use him as a small saver or a back-up in rolling exotic play.

Notable workouts:

Life Is Good (October 29, Belmont Park, 4f, :49.3b TT). Grade: B+
Under a stout hold throughout, full of run for T. Pletcher while being kept on edge for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Ready for a career top performance, it would seem.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Rougir; 6-Love; 7-War Like Goddess; 8-Love Only You; 12-Audarya

Forecast: There have been several excellent renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, but none as deep and contentious as this one, at least in recent years. There are at least five in the field that could, or should, be favored and are very difficult to separate. Love, believed to be only a small notch below Breeders’ Cup Turf-G1 favorite Tarnawa, was pre-entered in that race as well as the B.C. Filly & Mare Turf-G1, with trainer Aidan O’Brien ultimately opting to keep the daughter of Galileo with the girls. A five-time Group-1 winner in England but somewhat disappointing in her last three winless starts, she nonetheless is more than capable of winning a race of this quality with her top performance. The $1.8 million earner (and a winner of seven of 14 career starts) has the type of tactical speed that should keep her within striking range no matter how the pace flow unfolds, and while she was tagged right on the wire when nosed out as the favorite in the Blandford S.-G3 at The Curragh last time she hit the front too soon and probably doesn’t even know she lost. If there is a concern, is that her blood wasn’t right earlier in the month, necessitating her withdrawal from a scheduled appearance on Champions Day at Ascot earlier this month. She’s been deemed healthy enough by trainer A. O’Brien to have made the trip the Del Mar, so we’ll approach this race under the assumption she’s set to perform to high her standards.

War Like Goddess can’t quite boast the glitzy resume that Love can, but that doesn’t mean that she’s not just as good. Successful in six of seven career starts, her last three by daylight with ease and confidence, the daughter of English Channel owns an intense turn of foot that can neutralize any type of pace flow. According to her speed figures, she has produced a forward move in every one of her career starts and may need another one to defeat Love. But there’s no reason to believe she can’t rise to the occasion.

Audarya is the defending B.C. Filly & Mare champion, having won this race at Keeneland last year at odds of 17-1. She won’t be that price today. Her extreme outside post position number 12 is of no concern for a filly that will lag early and explode late, and though she was a close fourth to Rougir in the Prix de l’Opera-G1 in France last month over heavy ground, today’s firm grass course should bring out her best. Winless in five starts this year but with Timeform ratings that say she’s every bit as good now as ever, the French-bred filly is a “must use” at 5-1 on the morning line.

Love Only You showed her quality last winter on the world’s stage when finishing a superb third – beaten just a half-length – behind Mishriff in the Dubai Sheema Classic, then went to Hong Kong to win a Group-1 race less than a month later. The pride of Japan, a winner of six of 14 races arrives fresh after 10 weeks of vacation time and if she brings her best stuff she’s more than capable of winning.

If you have room on your rolling exotic ticket, you probably should consider including Rougir, at least as a back-up or a saver. Her recent win at Longchamp was well-earned, though a case could be made that the deep going promoted her chances. She’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line, a decent sort of price for a Group-1 winning French filly who has won or been beaten a neck or less in each of her last four starts.

Notable Workouts:

War Like Goddess (October 31, Del Mar, 4f, :48.1h). Grade: B+
Worked alone on main track while displaying plenty of energy and looking as good as ever, final quarter mile without being asked in a sharp :23.3. Has never taken a backward move according to her speed figures and looks ready for another career top in the B.C. Filly & Mare Turf.
View Workout Video

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RACE 8: Breeders’ Cup Sprint Post: 2:38 PT Grade:
Use: 2-Jackie’s Warrior; 9-Dr. Schivel

Forecast: After a brief flirtation with distance racing early in 2021 to determine his viability for the spring classics, Jackie’s Warrior was returned to his roots as a dominating one-turn specialist and is every bit deserving of his 6/5 favorite’s role in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1. Thoroughly impressive when earning terrific speed figures in each of his last three outings, all wins, the S. Asmussen-trained colt most recently was assigned a career top 110 Beyer number when capturing the Gallant Bob S.-G2 under wraps. However, it was his performance two runs back that was his most impressive. In stalking and then out-finishing the brilliant Life Is Good in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial S.-G1 at Saratoga, the son of Maclean’s Music displayed championship qualities that are expected to continue under regular rider J. Rosario in a race that he projects to control from gate to wire.

Dr. Schivel is comfortably drawn on the far outside, which means the gifted son of Violence can pop and go or stalk and pounce. He’ll need a significant amount of improvement to put a scare into Jackie’s Warrior, but the twice-beaten in seven starts sophomore is a perfect three-for-three over the Del Mar main track and thus owns the home court advantage. Whether or not he’s good enough can be questioned but from all indications – including his appearance and his workouts – the M. Glatt-trained colt is prepared for a career top effort. He is worth including somewhere on your ticket for protection.

Notable Workouts:

Jackie’s Warrior (October 31, Del Mar, 3f, :36.4h). Grade: B+
Under a hammerlock through the lane while appearing ready to explode, final quarter mile in :24.3. Should handle the Del Mar main track without any issues.
View Workout Video

Dr. Schivel (October 30, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.2h). Grade: B+
Broke off behind Deservedly (5f, :58.3h) and finished down the lane with workmate to be head-and-head at the wire, splits of :23.2, :34.3 and :58.2, niggled at late, solid work for high class sprinter who always seems to save his best for the afternoon. Loves the Del Mar main track and will lay his body down when trying to stay with Jackie’s Warrior.
View Workout Video

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RACE 9: Breeders’ Cup Mile. Post: 3:20 PT Grade: A-
Single: 3-Space Blues

Forecast: Simply stated, European invader Space Blues is an exceptional racehorse and is superior to his North American counterparts. A winner of 10 of 18 career starts, including seven of his last 10 (all in top class stakes company), the five-year-old son of Dubawai will be stretching out to a mile for the first time following a recent series of outstanding seven furlong performances, but he should have no problem with today’s extra distance and in fact gives every indication that he’ll be quite comfortable over the Del Mar turf course’s tight layout and the extremely firm ground that it offers. From a good inside draw, world class jockey W. Buick can settle somewhere in mid-pack with cover and sit still to the far turn, at which time he’ll need to find room to allow the C. Appleby-trained horse to uncork the type of acceleration than none of his rivals can match. He’s the morning line favorite at 3-1 and deservedly so. Somewhere along the sequence we have to take a stand, and it’s in this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Mile that we will do just that. There’s always a traffic issue to worry about in a 14 runner event over a course with a short run to the wire after the field straightens for home but with any degree of good racing luck, we’re confident the Irish-bred veteran will deliver the goods in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Malathaat; 6-Letruksa

Forecast: Letruska has won 17 of 22 races during her career, including six out of seven in 2021, and will deserve plenty of support in the year-end voting for Horse of the Year. She is as genuine and consistent as they come and is the deserved 8/5 morning line favorite for this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1. Always most effective as the controlling speed, the Kentucky-bred daughter of Super Saver will once again be on the front end, though there are others in the field, such as Private Mission, Horologist, and Shedaresthedevil, that will allow no breathers along the way. She will have to earn it.

Malathaat, clearly the best 3-year-old filly in North America, steps out of her comfort zone as she faces older mares for the first time, and, yes, she will need a career top effort to defeat Letruska and the others. We think she is capable of doing just that. A winner of six of seven career outings including three Grade-1’s, she has been freshened since winning the Alabama S.-G1 at Saratoga in August and has trained like a filly that is both physically and mentally ready to take on the new challenge. Most of Curlin’s offspring get better with age, maturity, and distance, and this T. Pletcher-trained 3-year-old seems primed to make the next leap. Based on the projected race flow, Johnny V. can settle somewhere in the second flight behind those that will be dealing with Letruska during the early stages of the race. He’ll move closer as the field enters the far turn. Then he’ll push the button. We’ll be gambling that she’ll provide the proper response.

Notable Workouts:

Malathaat (October 29, Belmont Park, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B+
Breezing throughout outside Vindictive (same time) for T. Pletcher, never asked a drop while proving best late by a long head. Couldn’t be looking any better, ready for a career top performance.
View Workout Video
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RACE 11: Breeders’ Cup Turf. Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B+
Use: 7-Walton Street; 8-Broome; 13-Tarnawa

Forecast: European shippers have won 17 of the past 22 renewals of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, so it makes perfect sense to first focus on the foreign contingent in researching and handicapping this $4,000,000 mile and one-half marathon. Defending race champion Tarnawa returns to defend her crown and based on her current form appears to be every bit as good this year as last. She’s fresh, too, having had just three starts in 2021. A winner of a Group-3 affair in Ireland in early August in her seasonal bow, she next ran arguably the best race of her career when narrowly missing to likely European Horse of the Year St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion S.-G1 the following month. Then, most recently, the D. Weld-trained mare lost nothing in defeat when second, beaten less than a length, in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe-G1 at Longchamp three weeks ago. Effective on any ground but quite comfortable over the extremely firm, pool table-type grass track at Del Mar, the five-year-old mare is blessed with an intense turn of foot and can be expected to produce a winning late kick, assuming she has the good fortune of to avoid traffic trouble from the top of the stretch to the wire.

At seven years of age, the English-based Walton Street has never been better. His 119 British Race Form figure earned in his nearly six-length romp in the Canadian International S.-G1 at Woodbine in mid-September was a career top, and to place that in context with our top pick, that rating was just three points below the one assigned to Tarnawa in her recent ‘Arc runner-up performance. The C. Appleby-trained gelding is hardly out of his element against world class competition and is a “must use” somewhere on your ticket.

Price players may want to toss in Broome. Why not include a European-based, Group-1 winning millionaire trained by A. O’Brien and ridden by Frankie? Originally listed at 20-1 on the morning line (he may go lower after the scratch of the major contender Domestic Spending), the five-year-old stayer has Timeform ratings that fit with most of these and will offer value in the vertical exotics even if he just manages to hit the board.

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RACE 12: Breeders’ Cup Classic. Post: 5:40 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Hot Rod Charlie; 4-Essential Quality; 8-Medina Spirit

Forecast:This much we’re certain of: Knicks Go will attempt to employ his usual gate-to-wire tactics in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Classic-G1. How many of his nine wins were accomplished when he failed to make the early running? That number would be zero.
But unlike in his three most recent dominating front-running victories - the Corn Husker H.-G3, the Whitney S.-G1, and the Lukas Classic-G1 - the other main players in this race aren’t simply going to hand him the front end on a silver platter. This time, he’ll have to work to get the lead and work even harder to keep it. Medina Spirit, himself victorious in five of nine career outings, each in wire-to-wire fashion, may not be as committed to the front as Knicks Go, but there’s no way he’ll be backing off early. In fact, if Medina Spirit can somehow outrun Knicks Go early as his connections certainly hope he can, the B. Baffert-trained colt may be quite capable of reproducing his runaway score in the Awesome Again S.-G1, the race last month that produced his highest-rated victory in a career that remains highlighted by his first place finish in the Kentucky Derby-G1.

Where does the projected race flow leave Hot Rod Charlie? Probably in an ideal second flight, stalking position, similar to the trip he enjoyed when crossing the wire first in the Haskell Invitational G-1, a victory that was taken from him due to the carelessness of his jockey, F. Prat, who caused a mid-stretch spill. ‘Charlie returned to win the Pennsylvania Derby-G1 in September with a career top 111 Beyer speed figure that Knicks Go has exceeded just once in his 23-race career and four points better than anything Medina Spirit has ever achieved. A string of typically strong recent workouts suggests the D. O’Neill-trained colt still has additional improvement in him, and at anywhere near his morning line of 4-1 the son of Oxbow offers excellent wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

Essential Quality, the colt that edged Hot Rod Charlie in the Belmont S.-G1 and then subsequently won both the Jim Dandy S.-G2 and Travers S.-G1, remains the leader for an Eclipse Award in the 3-year-old colt division, but in his first start since late August the son of Tapit surely will need a career top effort to win what is expected to be his final career race. He’s been beaten just once in nine lifetime outings – he was fourth without mishap behind Medina Spirit in the Kentucky Derby-G1 – and while we may question the ceiling of his natural talent there’s no doubting his will. Our first inclination was to leave him off our ticket, but we’re doing that with Knicks Go., so for now, he’s on. He’s simply too good of a racehorse.

Notable Workouts:

Hot Rod Charlie (October 30, Del Mar, 7f, 1:26.4h). Grade: B+
Broke off behind Khantoro d’Oro (5f, 1:01.2h) and after using that one as a target easily drew clear through the under mild coaxing before traveling out all the way around to the six furlong pole, :24.3, :36.3, 1:00 flat (to the wire) and 1:12.3 to the seven furlong pole before galloping out in 1:26.3. Coming up to the Classic as good as one would want.
View Workout Video

Medina Spirit (October 29, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:11.3h). Grade: B+
In company inside Ax Man (same time) for B. Baffert while working from the five furlong pole around to the seven furlong pole, splits of :24.1, :35.3, :59.2 and 1:11.3, easy to the top then mildly coaxed through the lane to prove a tad the best in yet another strong drill. Comes up to the Classic with a strong foundation and is plenty fit for his best effort.
View Workout Video

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 06:13 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Hawthorne - Race #4

#5 Bens Malice	He has a chance to come running late, as both of his dirt losses have come behind the same talented, runaway winner in both spots. He may stack up well here.
#7 Dream Island	He has been heading in the right direction, especially since adding blinkers a couple starts back. He's going to need his best on the cutback, but he seems capable here.
#3 Whistlewhileyoumow	He chased a runner who might turn out to be okay in that last one, but he may have some company out of the gate today. He wouldn't be a surprise, but he's not really for me today.
Race Summary	Bens Malice might get the right kind of finishing trip in this spot with a couple of speedy types lined up, and based on his chasing a really tough customer in both of his dirt starts, I'm not convinced that he's totally exposed after three starts.

Hawthorne - Race #5

#1 Bourre' Trick	He's going to be a big price while rising to face some decent winners here, but I liked his last and he may get a cozy trip while breaking from the inside.
#2 Clean N Convincing	He's a pretty reliable finisher, but it seems like there is no way he's going to offer a fair price while racing for this team. Worth playing against?
#8 Gate Crew	He has been knocking on the door at this level while landing underneath shares, and he should get one of the better trips here from close range.
Race Summary	Bourre' Trick is somewhat appealing while stepping up to face winners, as he's sure to offer a solid price against this kind. If he can save ground and find a seam late, he might get one of the shortest trips around the track.

Hawthorne - Race #6

#5 Oeuvre	We'll see if he can duplicate that huge run when getting over the dirt for the first time, and his previous races suggest he doesn't need to have the lead. Perfect spying trip?
#4 Purr Sea	She ran well with much tougher in the Lassie, and she'll get blinkers on for this first local try. Whether it's the dirt or the blinkers, the local works hint she could be sitting on a big one.
#8 Ghaaleb's Ranger	His debut was sharp, but he only beat two horses downstate, and he's probably overbet with these even though I respect what he's capable of in here.
Race Summary	Oeuvre might be the right price to take a little shot against the two likely chalks. Purr Sea might freak here, but she's going to get bet, and Oeuvre can play if she can get close to that last one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 06:14 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#2 POWERFUL SPIRIT	Won despite going off stride two back under the same conditions.
#10 ITSTIMETOGOHOME	Been piling up the wins, including one from post 10 recently.
#5 STONEBRIDGE STRONG	Rallied from far back in last pair for minor awards at double-digit odds.
Race Summary	Powerful Sprit overcame an early break and trotted to victory at this level two starts ago, then got up for third behind the co-favorites on the class hike. He starts farther inside and gets the call in a wide open race. Play a 2-5-10 exacta box.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #6

#6 SWEET DEISEL	Deceptively good rallies in last two starts at this level, solid play.
#7 BETTORBUCKLEUP	Got the jump on 'Deisel,' finished 1/2-length behind him.
#1 UHTRED	First or second in all four starts this year, takes class hike.
Race Summary	Sweet Deisel rallied for a pair of in-the-money finishes and made up ground through a :26.3 final quarter mile both times. His double-digit odds won't remain, bt he's worth a win and place bet nonetheless in his current form. Play a 6-ALL exacta.

Northfield Park - Race #4

#5 ESCAPE THE HOUSE	Winning-type bid on return to Northfield, just missed, can handle class rise.
#1 SURE R LOOKIN GOOD	Scratched 'lame' for 2-percent barn, but still fits on best at good price.
#3 SARA JANE	Heavily-raced 4-year-old gets needed class break, can top $100k in earnings.
Race Summary	Escape the House bid second-over to a brief lead, only to get caught by the 4-to-5 favorite. She steps up in class and probably will be an underlay, but she showed enough to handle this field. Play 5-1 and 5-3 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 09:12 AM

BATTAGLIA ( Paid Play ) :

Saturday BREEDER'S CUP

Del Mar
Race 12 Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade I) POST Time - 5:40 PM PT

Selections 4-5-9-2 Rating 3 stars
#4 Essential Quality-I am expecting a fast pace up front with #5 Knicks Go, #6 Art Collector and #3 Hot Rod Charlie all doing their best running when on the front end. Our top pick will come from off the pace, has a win from just two starts at this one and one quarter mile distance, has won 8 of his 9 starts and should prove tough to hold off late.
#5 Knicks Go-may prove to be the speed of the speed and is on a three race wire to wire win streak. However, he is stretching out to a distance he has never been and with all the other speed we have to try to beat.
#9 Max Player- has won back to back at this same one and a quarter mile distance and is coming off his best race to date.
#2 Express Train- long shot play has rallied to win 3 of his 5 starts here with a second. He will be a big price and could run into the payoffs.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 11:02 AM

Sal Michaels

Nov 06 '21, 3:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | California vs Arizona
Play on: Arizona +9½ -110 at William Hill

Free Play on Arizona +9½ -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 11:02 AM

Totals Guru

Nov 06 '21, 3:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Temple vs East Carolina
Play on: UNDER 53 -110

Free Total Annihilator On Temple vs East Carolina under 53 -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 11:09 AM

Kenny Walker

Nov 06 '21, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Oklahoma State vs West Virginia
Play on: Oklahoma State -3 -110 at SC Consensus

Free Pick on Oklahoma State

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 11:09 AM

Info Plays

Nov 06 '21, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Auburn vs Texas A&M
Play on: Texas A&M -4 -110 at Mirage

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Texas A&M -4 -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 11:09 AM

Kyle Hunter

Nov 06 '21, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Colorado State vs Wyoming
Play on: UNDER 41 -110

*3 Star Free Pick* The Wyoming Cowboys have had a really disappointing season thus far. Craig Bohl's team has been terrible on offense, and they haven't met expectations. They have a chance here though in the Border War game against rival Colorado State to pick up a big win.
I expect both teams to show up with a strong effort here. The two best units on the field are the Colorado State defense and the Wyoming defense. Colorado State ranks 9th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Wyoming ranks 15th in yards per play allowed.
Both of these teams prefer to run the football. The forecast calls for 20-25 mph winds during this game so the game plan could get even more conservative than normal.
Neither team has a quarterback they can trust. Wyoming has been switching quarterbacks on nearly a weekly basis. Colorado State has virtually no passing game.
Both defensive lines are strong and I think they win the battle in the trenches.
Take the under here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 11:17 AM

Marc Lawrence

Nov 06 '21, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Auburn vs Texas A&M
Play on: Auburn +4½ -103 at pinnacle

Play - Auburn (Game 395).
Edges - Tigers: Head coach Bryan Harsin is 5-1 ATS in his career as a road dog, and Harsin is 11-4 SU and 9-5 ATS against rested opponents … Aggies: 2-16 ATS in games when coming off a Bye week during the regular season … We recommend a 1* play on Auburn. Thank you and good luck as always.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 11:21 AM

Matt Fargo

Nov 06 '21, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Wisconsin vs Rutgers
Play on: Wisconsin -12½ -114 at pinnacle

This is a play on the WISCONSIN BADGERS for our Saturday Free Play. Wisconsin is starting to catch fire as it has wo four straight games including two big wins over Purdue and Iowa which has put it in the driver's seat in the Big Ten West Division. The Badgers are 3-2 which is one game behind Minnesota and those rivals square off in the season finale. Wisconsin has played the tough part of the schedule already and the next three games are against teams that are a combined 3-13 in the conference so these likely wins will make that game against Minnesota a winner-take-all game. After losses against Notre Dame and Michigan where the defense surrendered 41 and 38 points respectively, the Badgers have allowed only 34 points combined over their last four games, an average of just 8.5 ppg allowed. The Badgers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite. Rutgers is coming off a win last week at Illinois which halted a four-game losing streak as the offense continues to struggle. The Scarlet Knights have averaged just 13.2 ppg over their last five games and they come in ranked No. 106 on total offense and No. 98 in scoring offense. This is not ideal playing the No. 1 ranked defense in the country the Scarlet Knights are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog. Here, we play against home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off a win against a conference rival, after the first month of the season. This situation is 45-14 ATS (76.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Play (327) Wisconsin Badgers

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:43 PM

Breeders Cup HRN
5) 4,2,1,7
6) 5,8,1,3
7) 7,8,4,12
8) 9,2,8,1
9) 3,14,6,9
10) 2,6,11,3
11) 13,12,11,9
12) 4,9,5,6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:43 PM

John Lauro

Filly and Mare Sprint: Del Mar Race No. 4

#6 Bella Sofia (5-2 morning line). “Bella Sofia is a strong play to upset Gamine. She was supplemented to this race for $100,000. Connections and clockers say she is ready for the top prize here.”

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2021, 12:44 PM

Dave Tuley

Filly and Mare Sprint: Del Mar Race No. 4

1 Proud Emma (20-1 morning line). “Gamine won this race last year and hasn’t lost since (barely even been headed in four races). I believe that IF she’s to lose, it'll be because of being pushed too hard early by Bella Sofia or Edgeway. I’ve heard others saying the Ce Ce would be helped the most by a speed duel, but I believe she’ll be too close to the pace and could get drawn into it. So, Proud Emma is my choice as the top upsetter for trainer Peter Miller, who is hitting at 33 percent with hot jockey Flavien Prat the past two months. Proud Emma also has a little bit of a home-course advantage with two wins and two seconds in four starts over the Del Mar dirt (toss out the poor turf effort at DMR). Wager: Win and Place.”

Turf Sprint: Del Mar Race No. 5

#1 Glass Slippers (6-1). “I like to bet defending BC champions. For one thing, they’ve proven they can do it against this level of competition. But I also believe that the connections of such horses get single-minded after BC success and their only goal is to get back to the limelight and do it again. So, I’m not concerned with Glass Slippers’ three third-place finishes this year as I see those as just prep races for Saturday’s race where she should be able to sit off the pace and make one big run down the stretch. Wager: Win (no Place unless she drifts up to 10-1).

Dirt Mile: Del Mar Race No. 6

#7 Snapper Sinclair (12-1 morning line). “ I like another mid-range horse in #7 Snapper Sinclair. He was fourth in the Dirt Mile back in 2019 at Santa Anita. He also finished fourth over in Dubai back in March, but he’s had three solid races (all on the turf) since returning to the states. I see no reason he can’t carry his turf form over to the dirt to pull the upset, and I think I have the better closing jockey in Rosario. Wager: Win and Place.”

Filly and Mare Turf: Del Mar Race No. 7

#2 Pocket Square (15-1 morning line). “I first looked at defending champ Audarya – again, not too concerned with the 0-for-4 record this year as she’s been pointing at defending her title. However, I don’t like her short odds in such a large field. Besides, foreign horses don’t fare as well in this race as other turf races, so I instead landed on #2 Pocket Square. She’s also a foreigner, but has been in the states since May and has been consistently closing against all competition. Irad Ortiz Jr. should be able to give her a ground-saving trip from the inside post and have her in position for the late run to the wire. Wager: Win and Place.”

Sprint: Del Mar Race No. 8 (5:38 p.m. ET/2:38 p.m. PT)

#4 Matera Sky (20-1 morning line). “I’ve heard several people saying they’re passing this race (and none of my friends here are picking it) as they expect #2 Jackie’s Warrior to romp. However, the favorite has won this race just three times in the last 20 years, so I’m willing to take a shot. Now, you won’t see much by looking at the PPs for Matera Sky, but he’s obviously a high-quality horse with a trip to Dubai and has run some fast races in Japan. He has a case of seconditis (9-of-35 in lifetime and 4-of-8 recently), but I’m fine with that at this price. Wager Win and Place, but I also like the closer, #3 C Z Rocket, plus it’s not the worst idea to have an exacta box with 2,3 and 4.”

Mile: Del Mar Race No. 9

#12 Pearls Galore (12-1 morning line). “For my money, if you like favored Space Blues, I prefer Pearls Galore at 12-1 as this 4-year-filly just lost to Space Blues by two lengths. She also had two Group 3 wins in Ireland this summer before her two runner-up finishes, so she’s in great form. Wager: Win and Place. Back when I would list my 1-2-3-Longshot plays in BC races instead of just focusing on my top choices, #4 Raging Bull (15-1) would have been my “Longshot” play. He probably needs a fast pace, but could be circling the field late, so I’m tossing him in my exotics with 3 and 12.

Distaff: Del Mar Race No. 10

#9 As Time Goes By (15-1 morning line). “Letruska is a deserving favorite as she’s been kicking butt in the East and Midwest. But, no offense, there’s speed and then there’s California speed as this is her first race at Del Mar. She’s going to get pressed a lot hard up front and I’m looking for a distaffer to come from off the pace. As Time Goes By should be able to bid her time just off the pace and have first run on the other closers turning for home. Wager: Win and Place.”

Turf: Del Mar Race No. 11

#9 Sisfahan (12-1 morning line). “This 3-year-old colt won the German Derby back in July, but has been flying under the radar despite a second-place finish to Torquator Tasso in a Group 1 race in September. Tarnawa, the 9-5 favorite in this race, finished second to Torquator Tasso in the Arc de Triomphe, so Sisfahan is in pretty good company at a much better price! Wager: Win and Place.”

Classic: Del Mar Race No. 12

#9 Max Player (8-1). “I’ve always said that I’d rather be on a horse early rather than late. That’s because, playing long shots like I do, if a horse scores at a price, a ton of people jump on the bandwagon and you usually never see that price again. Max Player was my Derby pick this year, and finished fifth. Fortunately, I was able to get my money back when he won Belmont’s Grade 2 Suburban at 11-1 in July. I didn’t bet him when he won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga on Labor Day Weekend as he was just 7-2 (kinda proving my earlier point). Anyway, this is the Breeders’ Cup Classic, so we get an odds boost against the increase in competition, but I still believe this should set up for his closing style and that his true odds are closer to 9-2 or 5-1. Wager: Win (no Place price unless he drifts up to 10-1, which is possible if the public gravitates to other contenders).