Sunday 11/14/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 01:01 AM

Aqueduct (1st) Amazing Dream, 7-2
(4th) Sandrone, 3-1

Churchill Downs (3rd) Zero Point Zero, 7-2
(7th) Alexandros, 5-1

Del Mar (4th) Back Ring Luck, 3-1
(5th) Freedom Lass, 3-1

Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Swimmingwithsharks, 7-2
(8th) Explosive, 4-1

Gulfstream Park (4th) Awesome Beach, 7-2
(10th) Big City Red, 4-1

Hawthorne (3rd) Last Promise, 10-1
(8th) Enchilada, 5-1

Laurel (1st) Wicked Prankster
(3rd) My Friends Beer, 3-1

Mountaineer (4th) Dancing Destiny, 8-1
(6th) John Milton, 6-1

Woodbine (4th) Tycoon, 3-1
(5th) Light the Lamp, 5-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 08:20 AM

Al Cimaglia: Rosecroft Raceway Potomac Pace Pick 4 Analysis

November 14, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
There is a chill in the air and that means it is time for the signature race at Rosecroft Raceway, the $100,000 Potomac Pace. Allywag Hanover, who disappointed as an odds-on choice in the Breeders Crown Final is the 6/5 morning line favorite. With a win tonight Aged Pace of the Year honors should belong to the Brett Pelling trainee.

The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11, which is also the Potomac Pace and that sequence will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

1-Allywag Hanover (6/5)-Last year's race set-up perfectly for a closer, which happened to be #2 who rolled by down the lane from the back of the pack. The difference tonight is this 4-year-old will be tough to beat off the gate. If not on the lead from the start McCarthy will likely get on the engine early in the mile. This morning line choice could lose. But it would take very hot fractions from the word "go" and if on his game that may not matter.
6-Nandolo N (10-1)-Willing to take a swing with this very sharp 7-year-old that has Dunn between the pipes. If someone wins with a 3-wide move around the last turn, my money is here. This small track specialist has won 11 of 20 this year and will be making its Rosecroft debut.

Race 12

4-Starship (5/2)-Raced well versus this kind for team Roberts on 10-31 but Rocktavious wasn't going to be denied. Has the gate speed to get the jump on the 2 below and in the end that might be difference.
6-Shim (3-1)-This American Ideal 5-year-old has been handicapped with post 7 in the last 2 starts. Moving inside 1 spot could be beneficial. Looks to be in line for a pocket ride behind #4 or to land on the engine.
7-JJ Flynn (7/2)-This 8-year-old gets the services of Tim Tetrick and has banked over $138,000 this year winning 10 of 33 starts. Does its best work on smaller ovals and has good gate speed. But not sure if it is enough to blast out to the lead. Has the pilot in place to work a smooth trip and should be in the hunt to take a picture.

Race 13

2-Costello (3-1)-Has been battling Open company without much success but should relish this company. Knows the way to the Rosecroft winner's circle taking picture in 9 of 37 starts.
4-Cruise Control (5/2)-Took the long way around in last and that didn't work out but now drops to a more comfortable spot. Could leave and get a close-up seat which should make this veteran a main player.

Race 14

2-Lyons Coppertop (9/2)-This will be the 5th start at RcR and finally draws inside. Tonight, will be a test but should offer a fair price and Morand can be aggressive from this post.
5-Derby Dog Hanover (3-1)-Dropped and popped in last with a strong effort stopping the clock in 151.3. If the trip is kind, it could result in cashing the top check again.
7-Ilderton AM (5/2)-Might be bet down off the morning line but would likely be an odds-on choice with a better post draw. Will respect chances and hope for a decent price. Foster is a top pilot here and he will need to provide a good steer but hasn't started this far outside since mid-July.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,6/4,6,7/2,4/2,5,7
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 08:21 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Golden Gate

November 14, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
My Sunday virtual travels land me firmly at Golden Gate Fields, where the last four on the card have reeled me in.

The sequence makes a challenging start in the fifth race – so challenging that it looks like utilization of “ALL” looks like necessity, and with seven horses in it, it’s not a bank breaker.
Here’s a look at my suggested ticket, which amounts to $63, and the combatants in play:

5th Race (5:45 p.m. ET, claiming)

The biggest handicapping challenge in this sequence hits you right at the beginning.

The conditioned claiming race at a one mile attracted seven horses that deserve attention off recent outings. It’s one rare of the rare occasions when I use them all.

SOUTHEAST ASIA has kept good form all year, showing up on the board in 10 of 12 races. He’s traveled well and has kept that form at the various track. However, he doesn’t stand out enough to use alone, and several others will take a case for themselves once set free.

Also on the ticket: (ALL) FOUR O’ FIVE, DI LAURIAN, MEGAMEISTER, SECOND BOLD, STORMING WARRIOR, CURRY NATION.

6th Race (6:15 p.m. ET, maidens)

HALF HOPING was competitive in four starts at Santa Anita and ran evenly in her first one over the Tapeta surface after a four-month break. She probably needed one over the strip, and her second back from her vacation should put her in a good position.

Also on the ticket: ZAFFERANA, ACCORDING TO JUDY.

7th Race (6:45 p.m. ET, starter allowance)

RED HOT LASS moves up in class, but her maiden win last out makes her a valid threat in this sprint.

She stalked the leaders in a professional run and drew off to an easy win in a time of 1:03 2-5 for 5.5 furlongs that matches up nicely with any of these over the strip. She can be in close attendance from the outside and can respond when called upon.

Also on the ticket: SHOUT IT OUT, PHANTOM INDIAN.

8th Race (7:15 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)

OF GOOD REPORT comes in off a fast-closing fourth against similar company and is showing signs of returns to good form.

He'll get a good pace in front of him and should be able to rally strongly in the final quarter. Jockey Pedro Terrero has done well (18 percent) and it’s a good sign that he gets the return riding engagement. A similar run as last time will make him tough to hold off.
Also on the ticket: FRIDAY’S AT SHADY.

Golden Gate Fields 50-cent Late Pick 4:
5) ALL (7 horses)
6) #4 Zafferana, #5 According to Judy, #6 Half Hoping.
7) #4 Shout It Out, #5 Phantom Indian, #6 Red Hot Lass.
8) #7 Friday’s At Shady, #10 Of Good Report.
The ticket: ALL (7 horses) with 4-5-6 with 4-5-6 with 7-10 ($63).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 08:23 AM

Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Wagering Strategies for Nov. 14, 2021

November 14, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bestrella; 3-Rev Rita; 5-Del Mar Drama

Forecast: Bestrella returns to her proper level, draws a good inside post, and with some help up front could be capable of producing the last run in this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. The P. Gallagher-trained Irish-bred is winless in five starts since being imported from Europe but she’s a fit on numbers and makes a positive jockey switch to U. Rispoli. Del Mar Drama exits an open $40,000 claimer and faces considerably softer company today while returning to the course that produced her only victory. She’s a one-paced grinding type but should be heard from late. Rev Rita projects as the controlling speed in her first try around two turns. The pedigree suggests she should be okay handling the extra ground so at 8-1 on the morning line the lightly-raced daughter of Orb is worth tossing in.

Notable Workouts:

Del Mar Drama (November 8, Santa Anita, 4f, 48h TT). Grade: B
Looked nice in solo training track drill without ever being asked, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :35 flat. In good shape and has a chance to improve with a class drop.
View Workout Video

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Bold Choice; 7-Professor’s Pride

Forecast: Bold Choice was overmatched when unplaced in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies S. just nine days ago but isn’t today with the return to the state-bred maiden ranks. The short rest is of some concern, but if the daughter of Grazen can duplicate her good second place performance at this level two races back she may be able to tag the speed close home. Professor’s Pride has recorded some good workout times in the a.m. for trainer E. Truman and may be able to run enough to be competitive first time out at 6-1 on the morning line.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Sumter; 3-Apprehend

Forecast: Apprehend had the misfortune of catching Corniche when the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner made his debut during the summer meeting and under the circumstances did extremely well to finish a clear second (almost four clear of the rest) while earning a powerful speed figure. The son of Arrogate switches to grass, and if he handles the lawn as well as the main track, he could earn his diploma despite the shortening in trip to five furlongs. Interestingly, F. Prat, who rode the P. Miller-trained colt in his debut, opts for Sumter, the R. Mandella-trained colt who failed to draw into the field in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf sprint. The son of War Front missed by a nose against a similar group at Santa Anita last month and seems very likely to be the controlling speed once again. We’ll still prefer Apprehend on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Doc Adams; 5-Rookie Year

Forecast: This $16,000 claiming main track miler restricted to 3-year-olds appears to have two main players. Rookie Year is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite based on a big class drop, a perfect one-for-one record over the Del Mar main track, and the switch to F. Prat. He’s not entirely trustworthy (off the board in seven of 10 career starts) but if he shows up with his best stuff the P. Miller-trained gelding probably will win. Doc Adams stretches out for the first time and has sprint numbers that make him competitive. Overmatched in a starter’s allowance dash last month at Santa Anita, the son of Vronsky should be on or near the lead throughout against this softer band, so at 5-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on your ticket.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Sugary; 2-Freedom Lass; 8-Over Attracted

Forecast: Several of these are familiar with each other and are tough to separate, so we’ll go three-deep in this turf miler for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares and hope that’s sufficient. Sugary is fresh from a solid vs. similar last month at Santa Anita and returns at the same level for new trainer J. Wong following what may prove to be a timely claim. The barn hits at a powerful 26% with a massive ROI with this maneuver, so from her good inside draw the eight-year-old mare should have every chance to secure her eighth career victory. K. Desormeaux stays aboard and knows her well. Freedom Lass, drawn right alongside our top pick in the 2-hole, exits a series of stronger starter’s allowance events and is realistically spotted today while searching for her first 2021 victory. She’s competitive on speed figures, has run well over the Del Mar lawn in the past, and with the switch to F. Prat the M. Puype-trained filly should get the patient ride she prefers. Over Attracted, a solid runner-up behind Sugary last time out despite a less than ideal trip, looks the most dangerous of the deep closing types and with clear sailing should be in the fray in the final furlong.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 6-Durante

Forecast: Durante was more than nine lengths clear or the rest when a big-figure runner-up to Barossa in a maiden main track miler at Santa Anita last month. The son of Distorted Humor increased his Beyer speed figure by 25 points off his maiden sprint effort the previous month, and while we don’t expect anywhere near the same type of forward move today the D. O’Neill-trained juvenile will have to regress considerably to get beat in this spot. At 6/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he’ll not offer any real wagering value other than as a short-priced rolling exotic single.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Dancing Crane; 5-She’s Devoted

Forecast: Early speed more often than not is dominant in these five furlong turf sprints, and from her good inside post position Dancing Crane looks quickest of the quick. The light-raced daughter of Tapiture has been away since March but she can run well fresh (she won her debut), is a fit on numbers, and hails from a stable that has excellent stats with layoff runners. She should take them a long way under F. Prat. She’s Devoted, away since January, is another that won her career debut and therefore can be trusted to produce a big effort off the bench. She’s most effective as a late-running type and that style is up against it according to the course profile but we’ll have her on a ticket or two as a back-up for trainer R. Baltas, whose numbers with comebackers are off the charts.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Messier

Forecast: Messier broke his maiden by six lengths last month and the margin could have been double (triple?) that amount had F. Prat let him run. The Empire Maker colt has since breezed flawlessly while preparing for today’s Bob Hope S.-G3 while giving every indication that the longer they go, the better he will be. Seven furlongs in the logical steppingstone to his year-end goal of the Los Alamitos Futurity-G2 next month, so we’re expecting the B. Baffert-trained colt to settle behind his stable mates Kamui and Winning Map and then go on with it when given his cue. At 6/5 on the morning line, he’s a logical rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Messier (November 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: A-
Did not wear blinkers and actually worked a full six furlongs from the five furlong pole out to the seven furlong pole, breezing every step of the way with splits of :24.3, :36.2, 1:00.3 and 1:12.3, a ton left late for B. Baffert. Definitely strikes us as a route type, even though he broke his maiden at six furlongs. So far, he’s just scratching the surface.
View Workout Video

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Basilia

Forecast: Basilia looks very much like the controlling speed in this $40,000 claiming turf miler restricted to 3-year-old fillies. Given her projected trip from a comfortable inside draw, the P. Miller-trained filly seems like a solid gamble in the win pool and as rolling exotic single. Reunited with “win rider” F. Plat, the daughter of Cinco Charlie is a fit on speed figures and shows a bullet five furlong drill (59 seconds flat) at San Luis Rey Downs nine days ago to have her right on edge.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 08:24 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #5

#3 Coltonator	Tactical speed should be able to land the right kind of trip with these, and he has done some good work against similar in some recent starts while now facing a handful of class risers.
#1 Mr. Hustle	Can't complain too much about the way he looked when trying the dirt for the first time, and he'll step up off the claim after that good effort. Price chance for the gimmicks.
#4 Heart Rhythm	Capable player steps up off the claim, and he has some sharp pace to put to use here while protected. Wouldn't be a total surprise to see him land this.
Race Summary	Coltonator can be a handful in here, and I'll try to get the race to pay by getting Mr. Hustle in the picture at a decent price. Hoping for about a $20 exacta with those two.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#8 Home Brew	He ran well when scoring from off the pace at Laurel in the debut, and he now races out of the high-powered Cox barn, giving him some room to step forward here.
#6 Baladi	Blinkers go on after a fading effort last time out, and that probably keeps him in the mix early again with these. A bit concerned about whether he can finish this race off at maybe too short a price.
#1 Magnolia Midnight	He was just in too tough when racing two turns in Grade III company, but he won his only dirt sprint and should appreciate getting back in with this kind today.
Race Summary	Home Brew can presumably move forward here with just one start under his belt, and the fact that he now races for an even sharper barn can probably make him tough from a good outside draw.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#6 Coco Puff	He was close throughout in a race that didn't go super fast, but he has been heading in the right direction and may be able to find the winning trip here at a mid-range price.
#1 Jaccaci	She moved up in a big way when sent around two turns on the turf, and this one-turn mile on the main might be right up her alley. Chance if she can transfer the form.
#7 Trobairitz	She'll get her feet on the main for the first time, but the turf form seems to fit pretty well if she can transfer it here. Think this race is pretty open to end the card, so these surface-switch types have some appeal.
Race Summary	Coco Puff can be tough here after moving forward again in that third career start, and she should be able to get a perfect trip tracking the pace if she's good enough.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 08:26 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #3

#4 Admiral Halsey	Finished well for 3rd at Kentucky Downs in his last one and gets into a good spot where he can take aim from just off the leaders and then run them down.
#2 Sumter	Set the pace and just missed at Santa Anita last out and was second over this course two back; gets a good run inside.
#3 Apprehend	Was second behind Corniche going 5.5 on dirt and should be able to get a good run on turf as well.
Race Summary	Admiral Halsey has a good chance to carve out a perfect trip off the leaders; one to hold off.

Del Mar - Race #7

#5 She's Devoted	Can't possibly get a better pace setup here; she closed from far back and won her first two and then was an even fourth in a stakes race; has the class and the late kick.
#4 Greg's Diva	Has been in front in seven of her eight races and lasted in one of those; very rapid and always a threat.
#1 Dancing Crane	Gets going at top speed at one and is often difficult to catch; can be tough on others trying for the lead.
Race Summary	She's Devoted is an excellent closer at short distances and can score with a clean trip.

Del Mar - Race #9

#6 Chasingserendipity	Was competitive at this level and then was claimed and unsuccessfully took a couple steps up; back to where she does her best and she looms a serious threat to these.
#2 Basilia	Made a strong run late last time and came up a length score; hasn't won since June but has often been in the mix.
#10 Cecile's Chapter	Closed for second at this level last time out and has a decent late move much of the time.
Race Summary	Chasingserendipity was outrun at higher levels lately but this return to a more comfortable price can put her into the winner's circle.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 08:27 AM

Free Winners for Sunday, November 14th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
DEL MAR
RACE #8
TIME: 7:00 PM EST
PICK: BET #1 Messier 8/5 odds to win @ Bovada

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 10:29 AM

ADAM CHERNOFF

CAROLINA +10.5
DALLAS OVER
CLEVELAND
PHILLY/DENVER -OVER TOTAL
KANSAS CITY

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 10:32 AM

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Arizona -10 over Carolina

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 10:32 AM

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2021

11/14 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM ET

NFL (247) BUFFALO BILLS VS (248) NEW YORK JETS

Take: (247) BUFFALO BILLS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 10:33 AM

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SUNDAY: BUFFALO/NY JETS UNDER the total of 47½

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 10:33 AM

Totals4U

Late Sunday's Free Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars/Indianapolis Colts under 47 1/2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 10:34 AM

Roz Wins

ROZ FREE Selection SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 14, 2021

FREE NFL
260. Packers -3 (1:25 PT / 4:25 ET)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-14-2021, 10:34 AM

Atlantic Sports

Early Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Los Angeles Lakers - 2 1/2