Saturday 11/20/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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AI Picks: National Stakes | Saturday, Nov. 20, 2021

November 19, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s stakes lineup features important races from coast to coast. To assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

Aqueduct // Race 9 // 3:43 pm ET // $200,000 Grade 2 Red Smith Stakes // 1-3/8 miles (turf)

#7 Channel Cat (4-1) // 27%W
#3 Soldier Rising (5-1) // 13%W
#4 Serve the King (3-1) // 12%W
#8 Sanctuary City (20-1) // 9%W

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Churchill Downs // Race 10 // 5:36 pm ET // $300,000 Grade 2 Chilukki Stakes // 1 mile

#7 Obligatory (5-2) // 30%W
#1 She Can’t Sing (5-1) // 20%W
#3 Matera (3-1) // 10%W
#4 Miss Bigly (3-1) // 9%W

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Golden Gate Fields // Race 7 // 6:46 pm ET // $50,000 Oakland Stakes // 6 furlongs

#6 Border Town (5-2) // 32%W
#1 In Our A (2-1) // 21%W
#4 Ultimate Bango (3-1) // 13%W
#5 Papa’s Golden Boy (9-2) // 11%W

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Del Mar // Race 8 // 7:00 pm ET // $100,000 Grade 3 Native Diver Stakes // 1-1/8 miles

#6 Eight Rings (7-2) // 25%W
#2 Midcourt (4-1) // 21%W
#4 Bal Harbour (8-1) // 18%W
#5 Azul Coast (5-1) // 13%W

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AI Picks: Gulfstream Rainbow 6 Mandatory | Sat., Nov. 20

November 19, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s Gulfstream Park program includes a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 pool. To assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

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Gulfstream Park // Race 5 // 2:34 pm ET // claiming // 1 mile 70 yards (Tapeta)

#12 Tudox Roadster (8-1) // 21%W
#1 Theuncapturedlady (10-1) // 16%W
#10 Flying Black (5-1) // 13%W
#3 Toolegittoquit (10-1) // 10%W

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Gulfstream Park // Race 6 // 3:07 pm ET // maiden claiming // 6 furlongs

#2 Dignified (7-2) // 20%W
#9 Miss Youniverse (20-1) // 16%W
#1 Ines’s Hats (12-1) // 10%W
#4 Powder My Nose (15-1) // 9%W

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Gulfstream Park // Race 7 // 3:40 pm ET // maiden claiming // 1-1/16 miles (Tapeta)

#5 Midnight Bella (7-2) // 27%W
#6 Diamond Play (5-1) // 17%W
#1 Tilsa (12-1) // 12%W
#8 Pearlescent (3-1) // 8%W

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Gulfstream Park // Race 8 // 4:10 pm ET // claiming // 1 mile

#5 Malibu Max (6-1) // 19%W
#4 Benefactor (15-1) // 12%W
#12 Dark Ages (8-1) // 10%W
#8 Here Comes Bullet (12-1) // 8%W

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Gulfstream Park // Race 9 // 4:40 pm ET // optional claiming // 1-1/16 miles (Tapeta)

#1 Centsless Drama (3-1) // 21%W
#7 Appointed (9-2) // 20%W
#3 Village Queen (8-1) // 15%W
#2 Feets of Feather (12-1) // 13%W

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Gulfstream Park // Race 10 // 5:10 pm ET // claiming // 1 mile 70 yards (Tapeta)

#7 Flowmotion (4-1) // 21%W
#4 Backwoods Boogie (5-1) // 16%W
#2 Digital Footprint (5-1) // 12%W
#8 Golden Decision (5-1) // 10%W

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: Oakland Stakes at Golden Gate Fields | Saturday

November 18, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

$50,000 OAKLAND STAKES AT GOLDEN GATE FIELDS
Saturday, November 20, 2021

The Lead:
We venture to Northern California for this week's action and the 6-furlong Oakland Stakes for elder sprinters on the Tapeta surface. Golden Gate Fields' Saturday feature lured a field of 7 that includes 5 locals and a pair of shippers based at Santa Anita. The Oakland will go as Race 7 on a 9-race card.

Field Depth:
PAPA'S GOLDEN BOY is the lone stakes winner in the field, while BORDER TOWN is Grade 3-placed and the likes of IN OUR A and ULTIMATE BANGO are stakes-placed. Three others are out to prove their class worth. BORDER TOWN has kept the classiest running lines in the field, mostly in turf routes.

Pace:
For a 6-furlong sprint, there's little determined early speed. Couple that with a modest field size of 7, and this race likely will be taken by a horse on the front end. With few quality and quantity challenges, it sets up for early speed. IN OUR A from the rail and PAPA'S GOLDEN BOY appear to have the most early interest, while I'MGONNABESOMEBODY could be forwardly placed. PAPA'S GOLDEN BOY should be fastest early.

Our Eyes:
SoCal shippers ULTIMATE BANGO (Mark Glatt) and BORDER TOWN (Richard Mandella) will garner much attention from the national simulcast audience. ULTIMATE BANGO exits a late-running third at Del Mar in a turf sprint allowance behind the win machine Mike's Tiznow, a quality effort despite a troubled trip. It's his second start off a layoff and should improve, but he's not won a race in more than 2 years and that included a flat third of five over this surface in his only local try in last fall's El Dorado Shooter Stakes. BORDER TOWN cuts back to 6 furlongs for the first time in his 18th career race. Sire War Front gives him some brilliance up top, but he's bred all route on the damside and his rallying route past performances are questionable at this trip...particularly with a lack of early pace to set the table.

PAPA'S GOLDEN BOY wired the Budweiser and Governor's Stakes this summer at Emerald Downs on dirt while sprinting and represented himself well enough in the Grade 3 Longacres Mile when fourth on the stretch-out. His Nov. 7 try at Del Mar was compromised by a trouble start when last of four in a turf sprint allowance behind graded stakes winner Beer Can Man, who would be odds-on vs. this group. PAPA'S GOLDEN BOY has never run on the GGF main track, but has been here since September and a bullet workout Oct. 30 for this indicates he can get over it well enough.

IN OUR A is the other early pace threat to fear. He's never missed an exacta in 10 starts with 5 wins and 5 runner-up finishes. All of those have come sprinting on the Tapeta; this is what he's cut out to do. Jockey Pedro Terrero is riding lights out and expect him to put this one right into the mix from the rail draw. This will be a class test for the former claimer and Cal-bred stakes performer, but the makeup of the field doesn't overwhelm him on credentials.

Others include the former SoCal claims RAGER and ITALIANO in a 2-3 rematch from their recent $40,000 claiming showdown, as well as ex maiden claimer I'MGONNABESOMEBODY off back-to-back route victories in starter allowance an allowance company.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
IN OUR A is within his element and has not missed an exacta in 10 tries. The pace seems manageable as well.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
No big prices are expected, but I'MGONNABESOMEONE could sit a nice trip outside within reach of the front and have some staying power while turning back from route to sprint. That's a good recipe to keep punching for a share.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Lean to the early speed horses, which may still offer value if we knock off both SoCal shippers. $50 exacta box PAPA'S GOLDEN BOY and IN OUR A ($100).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday Del Mar Late Pick 4 Analysis & Selections

November 18, 2021 | By Johnny D



Below is one man’s humble opinion of how Del Mar’s Saturday Late Pick 4 might shake out. The opening leg looks like another Bob Baffert 2-year-old success story. #3 Adare Manor will be difficult to deny. There are some interesting first-time starters in #9 Empire Gal and #4 Micro Share, and #2 Little Lara had an interesting effort first out at Keeneland. For these races, XBTV workout videos are helpful and Xpressbet Race Replays are invaluable. This player used both to hopefully successfully sort out Del Mar race 6.

The second leg features a sharp pace play with a comfortable inside draw going one mile and one-sixteenth on the Del Mar lawn. There doesn’t seem to be any other speed in the race to challenge #2 Big Coupe early and that should tell the story. Many in the field are ‘win-averse’ with few scores out of many tries. If it’s not #2 on the front end all the way…it could be just about anyone.

Race 8 is a Grade 3 stakes race where trainer Baffert holds all the aces—a set of them, actually. One wonders if he will start all three, especially since two of them have the same front-running style. Look for Baffert to scratch at least one of his runners out of this race. #2 Midcourt has the best credentials on paper, except for that last out dud in the Awesome Again where he was eased. He’s been around the oval with some top runners over the years and been competitive, especially at Del Mar. He’ll be a short price and probably worth playing against. In our experience, eased horses do not bounce back easily to win, especially in graded stakes. If all three Baffert runners stay in the race, the pace could get hot up front. If that happens, #8 Kiss Today Goodbye returns from a layoff with a nice closing style. He’s a real reach, so demand a decent price.

The Pick 4 finale seems to have a couple of obvious plays: #2 Dixie’s Two Stents drops into a likely spot for trainer O’Neill and #6 Fenestra attempts to use his speed to dominate a race that’s a furlong cutback in distance. #5 Warfront Fighter attempts to win his first race in 19 tries and avoid making it 6 second place finishes. #8 Mad Catter reversed form to show speed and finish second last out at 17-1.

As for value in this wager, we don’t see it in the first leg, unless #3 Little Lara can improve, or #9 Empire Gal can fire first time out. The second leg hinges on #2 Big Coupe. If not him, who knows? The Native Diver has #2 Midcourt as best on paper, but his last race isn’t encouraging. Scratches may help clarity this picture. The finale seems a 2 to 5-deep runner event. Saturday’s wager probably won’t pay boxcars, so players might want to consider punching a favored ticket several times.

Race 6
Maiden Special Weight
Cal-Bred Fillies Two Years Old
Six & One-Half Furlongs

#1 Peripheral makes a second start for Baltas after a poor turf mile try. Baltas solid 19% second time out. Blinkers go on (13%), turf to dirt (7%) and Cedillo rides (16%) for the trainer. Rail going six and one-half furlongs is no bargain. Would be a surprise in the win position but could improve with route conditioning cutting back to six and one-half furlongs.

#2 Little Lara comes here from Keeneland where she closed ground after a slow start. Outrun early, the first-time starter made a notable middle move and kept trying until the end. She was lugging in a bit and didn’t change leads, so she’s got to improve, but the effort shows she has talent. Six and one-half furlongs should favor her. She was nearly 30-1 in that 12-horse field. Trainer Cerin is just 8% with maiden second-time starters, according to DRF stats. Hernandez has been solid with the trainer 28% overall. Things to like.

#3 Adare Manor makes a second start for trainer Bob Baffert and the trainer’s 26% in that scenario. This Uncle Mo filly finished second by a neck in decent time. She has speed, gets off the rail and clearly is the one to beat in here.

#4 Micro Share has a decent training schedule with a pair of recent solid gate drills and two nice six-furlong breezes. Mandella is solid 18% with first-time starters. The filly is by Upstart and was purchased for $450k as a 2-year-old. She has some early speed.

#5 I Got a Gal has speed and makes a third start for trainer Eurton. Jockey Rispoli understandably stays with #3 Adare Manor instead of here. Fading performances suggest that six and one-half furlongs won’t be a benefit.

#6 Lonely On Top moves from turf to dirt for O’Neill after showing some pace going six furlongs before a fade to better than just one foe. Herrera gets in seven pounds lighter than others and that should help.

#7 Side by Side is a first-time starter for Karen Headley with three consecutive six furlong works. The $35k Keeneland September yearling should be fit enough to give a fair account.

#8 Princess Caterina is a first-out daughter for low-profile 1 for 19 trainer Silverio Martinez. The Cal-bred daughter of Prince of Love will be considered later.

#9 Empire Gal goes first time for Michael McCarthy, a top trainer who’s not known for winning first out. This daughter of Empire Girl has a pair of serious gate drills: 1:00 2/5 and :59 4/5 on her resume and they’re notable. McCarthy doesn’t usually work charges fast, so those moves are doubly impressive. In the latter drill, she broke a step slow and was asked for speed by the rider. She responded and then settled off workmate Macarena until passing her with ease off the turn and galloping home under wraps. Based on video of works available on XBTV, she looks like she can run, and distance won’t be an issue.

#10 Coloratura is a first-time starter for trainer Yakteen, who’s just 3% with first-time starters. Her last work 1:00 3/5 at Santa Anita is interesting and the post is perfect for a debut runner, but she could be overmatched.

Best: #3
Upset First-Time Starter: #9
Other Chances: #2, #4

Race 7
$50k Starter Allowance
Three Year Olds & Upward
One Mile & One-Sixteenth (Turf)

#1 Jack Sprout has two career wins and they both came at Del Mar at this distance. His last two tries haven’t been great and trainer Mendez mostly is known for success with 2-year-olds.

#2 Big Coupe has speed and showed it to win last out going one mile on turf at Santa Anita. His second consecutive victory—both by more than 3 lengths. Such winning margins are notable, particularly on turf. Inside speed always is dangerous going a route on turf and this 3-year-old is in top form. Catch him to win.

#3 Liar Liar has no speed and has just about split fields in three recent tries at this level—twice with top jock Prat calling the shots. Hernandez takes over in the saddle for trainer Miller, who’s having a relatively slow meeting with just 2 wins in 27 starts. 10 additional in-the-money finishes for the trainer suggests that Miller has been a bit unlucky.

#4 Secret Club also had the services of top jock Prat in his last two turf starts without success for Miller. Bravo is the new pilot. This guy was claimed for $40k out of a third-place finish and has been third twice since for current connections. Blinkers go ‘on’ and Miller is 19% with the move.

#5 Ronamo is a 5-year-old with just 2 wins in 22 starts. He starts for hot trainer D’Amato and jockey Rispoli—a 23% combo. He’s only zero for 2 on turf, so there’s obviously hope the surface makes a winning diference. Like many of these, he has no early speed.

#6 East Rand is a 6-year-old with just 2 wins in 28 starts. One of those wins came over this course and at this distance. He has little early speed in a race without much of that commodity.

#7 Foothill is a 4-year-old with 2 wins in 16 starts, one of those at Del Mar. Trainer O’Neill and jockey Cedillo are just 11% together. Gelding doesn’t have much early speed, has mostly been running at one mile on grass and also has a win going one mile and one-eighth on turf at Santa Anita.

#8 Epimythium is a new face, fifth at this distance over a ‘good’ Keeneland turf course last out. He’s a 3-year-old gelding with one win and 5 seconds from 12 starts. Only score came at Ellis Park going on mile on turf at the maiden $16k level. He’s another that prefers to run from off the pace.

#9 Best Chance is a 4-year-old colt from the Sadler barn. Seven-pound apprentice Herrera takes over from Bravo, who moves to #4 Secret Club. This colt closed ground to miss by just a neck two races back going one mile on turf at Del Mar, so he fits with these and likes the lawn. He’s been no worse than fourth in three recent tries at the level. Again, he has no early speed in a field lacking pace.

#10 Sly comes out of a recent turf sprint and has just 2 wins in 15 starts. His best effort came going one mile and one-eighth on turf immediately after being claimed by Metz from Mandella. He was a close fourth that afternoon.

#11 Midnight Jostar is a second entrant from the hot D’Amato barn (24% at Del Mar) and was second last out at this level going one mile on grass at Santa Anita. The 4-year-old is 2 for 17 with a win at this distance over this layout. A nice :59 3/5 bullet move suggests fitness. A deep closer breaking from this far outside post, he’ll need to get very lucky under Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux.

Catch Him and Win: #2
Chances: #4, #5, 11

Race 8
Native Diver – Gr. 3
Three Year Olds & Upward
One Mile & One-Eighth

#1 Established comes off a pair of upset wins sprinting against lesser and is in sharp form. This is a big step up in class but trainer Baltas doesn’t mind taking a shot with a sharp horse. This 4-year-old has a win over this track at seven furlongs and is making just a second try at the one mile and one-eighth distance. Speed and the rail help, but there’s other speed in here.

#2 Midcourt has the most impressive resume in here, according to Beyer Speed Figs. The 6-year-old gelding is a Gr. 2 winner, has never been off the board in 5 starts at Del Mar and has 2 wins and a second in 5 starts at the distance. His last race—eased in the Awesome Again--was the worst of a long and fruitful career. If players can swallow that poor effort, he’s a definite ‘fit.’ Trainer Shirreffs is conservative so you know nothing is seriously wrong with the gelding but that last out is tough to take. Before that race, Shirreffs was quoted as saying he probably would only run barnmate Xpress Train in the Awesome Again. Turns out he was right.

#3 Wicked Trick is fit off a recent one mile Del Mar try. He was second in an $80k allowance/optional claimer. The 6-year-old probably will need more than that to win in here. Rispoli replaces Maldonado (latter returns aboard #3 Midcourt) in the saddle for trainer Hess. This guy has raced mostly in New York and was claimed for $100k at Saratoga three races back.

#4 Bal Harbour invades from the east coast for this and hasn’t won a race since 2019. The 6-year-old would be surprise.

#5 Azul Coast is one of 3 Baffert runners entered in this race. The 4-year-old colt has 3 wins in 9 starts and is 1 for 2 at Del Mar and 1 for 3 at the distance. He won two of his first three starts—one at Los Alamitos and one at Golden Gate, including the El Camino Real Stakes. Three subsequent graded-stakes tries were unsuccessful before a nearly 10-month layoff. He won an $80k optional claiming race at Del Mar going one mile in August before, similar to Midcourt, faring poorly in the Awesome Again at Santa Anita. Top jock Prat takes over and he was aboard for the seaside optional claiming/allowance victory. He races from off the early pace.

#6 Eight Rings is a front runner and all three of his wins have been wire-to-wire efforts—one of those at Del Mar, first-out, going five and one-half furlongs. Most recently, he was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile after forcing a torrid early pace. He’s plenty fit off that. Before that he went wire-to-wire to win an $80k optional claiming race—his third win in 11 starts. It will be interesting to see if Baffert runs all three entrants since this guy and barnmate #7 Ax Man both have speed.

#7 Ax Man is a 6-year-old gelding with 7 wins out of 17 starts and a fading fourth (and last) finish in the six and one-half Gr. 3 Kona Gold in April. Before that he went wire-to-wire to win the Santana Mile at Santa Anita. Mike Smith will ride the speedy steed that has 3 of 4 wins in wire-to-wire fashion. Baffert won’t have #6 Eight Rings and #7 Ax Man fighting for the lead, so let’s see if he runs both horses. This gelding seems to have more early speed than the others.

#8 Kiss Today Goodbye hasn’t raced since July when last of 8 in the Gr. 2 San Diego Handicap. Blinkers will be added to the 4-year-old colt’s equipment by trainer Kruljac who is 20% off 61-180 days layoffs. He’s worked every 7 days with a pair of bullets in his holster. He got good last fall when he won an allowance/optional claiming race going one mile at Del Mar. He parlayed that into a December Gr. 2 San Antonio victory at Santa Anita. He doesn’t have any early speed, so he’s always up against things late. If all 3 Baffert runners start, there should be a strong early pace. That will help this guy’s chances of success. In a field of foes who have seen better days, perhaps this steadily training soph can make some noise.

Baffert’s Choice: #5, #6, #7
Possible Pace Play: #8
Best on Paper: #2 (but that last one…)
Note: Check Scratches. If Baffert scratches either #6 Eight Rings or #7 Ax Man the chances of the one that remains are enhanced. If Baffert’s three runners all start, give #8 Kiss Today Goodbye a shot at exotics at a price.

Race 9
$20k Maiden Claiming
Three Years Old & Upward
Five & One-Half Furlongs

#1 Rocketcent hasn’t impressed in three starts at this level.

#2 Dixie’s Two Stents figures to be live at this level on the drop from M50k and a return to dirt for trainer Doug O’Neill. Connections actually tried this one in two stakes races at 2 and almost got the maiden broken in September at Del Mar against allowance-level maidens when fourth, beaten less than 2 lengths.

#3 Annie’s Chief has been working steadily at Los Alamitos—every 7 days—for low profile trainer Milton Pineda. A 1:00 1/5 work from the gate is notable. Los Al works do clock a bit faster than those at other tracks.

#4 Misawa takes a drop from a good try in a state-bred maiden $50k going five and one-half furlongs at Los Alamitos. Two previous state-bred maiden allowance tries didn’t turn out well in the end, although he did show some speed before fading. There is a gap in the workout pattern from Oct. to Nov.

#5 Warfront Fighter, three back, was claimed for $20k after 15 maiden race misfires. He was claimed out of his last start, but that transaction was voided, and trainer Hess will reload with jockey Maldanado returning in the saddle. While this 4-year-old is missing a win in 18 starts, he has 5 seconds and 3 thirds. Exotics possible.

#6 Fenestra is fit off a Nov. 4 speed and fade effort at this level as the odds-on choice. That try matches a first out speed and fade effort at Oaklawn Park in maiden allowance company. A cut back in distance from six and one-half furlongs to five and one-half ought to help this one’s cause. Cerin/Desormeaux team is 22%. #8 Mad Catter may offer a slight early challenge, but Fenestra seems quicker than that one.

#7 Wiskey Vision has yet to impress in 6 starts—beaten double digits in last 4. This will be the 3-year-old gelding’s first since May and at the lowest level ever. The latter angle always is worth a second look. Still, this one’s form is difficult to digest…and that’s where bombs live.

#8 Mad Catter turned things around last out just over a month ago when second at this level at 17-1. The 4-year-old showed improved speed (second time blinkers) and just missed. It should be noted that in that race he also blew a 4-length lead going six furlongs. Cut back to five and one-half will help. Seven-pound bug Herrera in the saddle for Leonard Powell.
#9 Drew Big makes first start for 3% angle trainer Yakteen. Seven-pound apprentice Ellingwood handles the reins. A :48 1/5 gate blowout is best credential.

#10 Lantern Prince starts for 0-57 trainer Dunham. Don’t see a lot in San Luis Rey work resume.

Most Likely: #2, #6
Exotics: #5, #4, #8
Complete Reach: #7

Suggested $.50 Late Pick 4 ($15)
Race 6: #3
Race 7: #2
Race 8: #2, #5, #6, #7, #8 (Could be reduced by scratches)
Race 9: #2, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8

Race On!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best Horse Racing Bets for Saturday, November 20, 2021
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing

There’s a graded stakes race at each of my favorite Saturday tracks — Aqueduct Racetrack, Churchill Downs, and Del Mar Racing.

As usual, I’ve picked a mix of morning-line favorites as well as some underdogs and sleepers for our wagering entertainment.

Don’t forget to check out the full race-cards for all three tracks at one of our top horseracing wagering sites.

Good luck!
My Saturday Picks for Aqueduct Racetrack

Let’s start on the main track with race six, a six-furlong allowance optional claiming run for three-year-olds and upward. I like the 6/1 sleeper in this race — Mr. Phil, with Jose L. Ortiz aboard.

This four-year-old gelding finished twelve of his 23 career starts in the money, winning five—four of which were this year. In comparison, not one of the morning-line’s three top choices can show a win in 2021.

Longtime racing veteran James T. Ryerson trains Mr. Phil for Cammarota Racing LLC. Ryerson put Ortiz in the irons for Mr. Phil’s three most recent victories.

We move to the grass for race eight, a six-furlong allowance run for three-year-olds and upward.

Inconsistency seems to be the theme among the eleven contenders in this race, with speed figures all over the place for each, and money finishes likewise erratic.
I’m buying a win ticket on the fourth-favored Scuttlebuzz, ridden by Manny Franco. This four-year-old gelding moneyed nine of his 14 career starts, winning four. He’s done quite well for himself this year on the turf: Five money finishes in six turf starts, three of those wins.

Ranked among the top 100 trainers for both wins and earnings every year since 2010, Rudy R. Rodriguez trains Scuttlebuzz for La Marca Stable.

Race nine is the Red Smith Stakes (Grade II), a $200,000 purse, 1-3/8 miles turf run for three-year-olds and upward. I’m sticking with the 3/1 morning-line favorite, Serve the King, piloted by top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.

This five-year-old finished in the money seven of his ten career starts, winning four, including the John’s Call Stakes (Listed) at Saratoga in August. In October, he finished second in both the Monmouth Stakes (Grade III) at Monmouth Park and the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes (Grade I) at Belmont Park.

Breeders’ Cup and Triple Crown veteran Chad C. Brown trains Serve the King for owner Peter M. Brant.

One caveat – keep an eye on the 8/1 sleeper, Price Talk, ridden by Eric Cancel. This Anthony W. Dutrow-trained four-year-old gelding moneyed six of his eight career starts, winning four. Might be worth a safety bet.
Saturday’s Picks for Churchill Downs

We’re on the main track for race eight, a 6-1/2-furlong allowance optional claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward. I’m backing the 8/5 morning-line favorite, Center Aisle, with top jockey Joel Rosario in the irons.

This four-year-old filly finished five of her six career starts in the money, two of those wins—her initial maiden attempt and an allowance race last month. She also finished third last year in both the Victory Ride Stakes (Grade III) at Belmont and the Prioress Stakes (Grade II) at Saratoga.

Paulo H. Lobo trains Center Aisle for OXO Equine LLC. Lobo has put Rosario in the saddle for all of Center Aisle’s money finishes.

Race nine is a six-furlong allowance run on the main track for three-year-olds and upward that have never won two races. My winnimh ticket is on the 8/1 Unitedandresolute, piloted by Joel Rosario.

Come on, with half the entries in this ten-horse race at 8/1 morning-line, how could I not pick a sleeper?
This three-year-old gelding has the performance record to back up my bravado: Ten money finishes in 14 career starts, one of them a win. Most notably, he finished third in the Palisades Turf Sprint Stakes (Black Type) at Keeneland in April and second in the Dade Park Dash Overnight Stakes at Elis Park in July.

He’ll do.

Breeders’ Cup veteran Thomas M. Amoss trains Unitedandresolute for Corser Thoroughbreds, LLC.

Race ten is the Chilukki Stakes (Grade III), a $300,000 purse, one-mile main track run for fillies and mares three years old and upward. I must agree with the morning-line here and bet both of my dollars on the 5/2 favorite, Obligatory, with Joel Rosario aboard.

This three-year-old filly moneyed four of her eight career starts, winning two—her second maiden back in February, and the Eight Belles Stakes (Grade II) at Churchill Downs in April. She also finished second in both the Acorn Stakes (Grade II) at Belmont in June and Cotillion Stakes (Grade I) at Parx Racing in September.

She’ll do.

William I. Mott trains Obligatory for Juddmonte.
Saturday’s Picks for Del Mar Racing

Let’s start on the turf course with race three, a five-furlong allowance optional claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward. I’m calling this race for the 4/5 morning-line favorite, Zero Tolerance, ridden by top jockey Umberto Rispoli.
This three-year-old filly is my no-brainer pick of the day, having moneyed three of her four career starts, winning two, including her second maiden attempt back in August and the Unzip Me Stakes (Listed) at Santa Anita last month. She also finished a respectable fourth in the Autumn Miss Stakes (Grade III) at Santa Anita in late October.

Breeders’ Cup veteran Peter Miller trains Zero Tolerance for owners Custom Truck Accessories, Jason Hall, Joe Kelly, and Michael Riordan.

Race seven is a 1-1/16 miles starter allowance race on the turf course for three-year-olds and upward that have never won three races. I don’t see much to inspire in this 11-horse field—except for the 7/2 morning-line favorite, Big Coupe, with Jessica Pyfer in the irons.

It took this three-year-old gelding six attempts to break his maiden in September at Del Mar, but he caught on quickly, winning his next race, an allowance run at Santa Anita in October. In this race, he has no real competition. For the record, Big Coupe moneyed all seven of his career starts, winning two.

With nearly two decades in the business, Leonard Powell trains Big Coupe for owner-breeder Alfred Pais.

Race eight is the Native Diver Stakes (Grade III), a $100,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles main track run for three-year-olds and upward.

Virtually all the entries in this eight-horse field have been campaigned aggressively at the stakes level, but the one that looks most likely to succeed here is the 7/2 morning-line favorite, Eight Rings, ridden by top jockey Juan J. Hernandez.
This four-year-old colt moneyed four of his 11 career starts, winning three, including the American Pharoah Stakes (Grade I) at Santa Anita in 2019. He’s continued to build his career, finishing second in the Bing Crosby Stakes (Grade I) at Del Mar in July.

You might despair that he has no recent stakes wins to brag about, but his competitors here have far less reason to boast.

Hall of Famer Bob Baffert trains Eight Rings for owners Coolmore Stud, Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, and Starlight Racing (Lessee).

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The horse racing tips for Saturday, November 20, 2021

The Quinté + of Saturday 20 November is scheduled at the Auteuil racecourse in the discipline of jumping. Find below our predictions for this race as well as our bet of the day and our bet of madness in two other races on the menu of the day.
THE PRONOS OF THE QUINTE OF NOVEMBER 20
Mathieu Zaccagnini

1 Bonaparte Sizing (Favori)

Mathieu Zaccagnini’s favorite is 1 Bonaparte Sizing. He has solid credentials at this level and he is well placed in terms of weight.

13 Galopin de Balme (Outsider)

Its outsider is 13 Galopin de Balme. He was not happy last time and he has the quality to shine at this level.
Lionel charbonnier

10 Dentor des Obeaux

Lionel Charbonnier recommends the 10 Dentor des Obeaux which aligns the good places in this category of handicaps.
THE BET OF THE DAY

Meeting 1 (Auteuil) – Race 1: 1 Placenet

He faces opposition within his grasp and has always been successful since his competitive debut.
THE MADNESS BET

Meeting 1 (Auteuil) – Race 8: 1 Promised Beauty

She has solid credentials at this level and she seems close to success.

Mathieu Zaccagnini Journalist RMC Sport

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Rocket Picks ��: Del Mar, Gulfstream Park, and Aqueduct Picks for November 20, 2021
By: Aaron Halterman

The action continues as we’ve hit the weekend! We will go to Aqueduct for the free sequence once again today because we were on FIRE there last week. Friday we NAILED the Late Pick 4 at Aqueduct for $662.75 on a $48 ticket, while Sunday we did it again with a $223.00 Pick 4 cash! The paid Rockets also hit the Late Pick 5 for $1,964.25!!! Not bad for $40. Let’s try to stay hot this week!

Below is our free Late Pick 4 for Aqueduct:
Rockets

For full card plays, featuring race-by-race analysis, top four picks for each race, and full-card multi-race wagers, get Rockets today!
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Aqueduct November 20, 2021

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight

#1 Never Change debuts for Todd Pletcher in this spot, who is always good with first time starters. There are no standouts in this race. #2 Iconic Adventure should improve for Mott in his second race. He was a solid runner-up last time out.

Race 8: Allowance
freestar

#7 Scuttlebuzz can win here at a decent price if he can rebound from a poor effort last time out. #6 Call Me Harry will try to make it two in a row after a nice win last time out. This is a consistent turf runner on this circuit.

Race 9: Red Smith Stakes (G2)

#4 Serve the King is a Chad Brown runner who seems to run consistent races. He was second in a Grade 1 event last time out. #3 Solider Rising is a 3 YO trying older horses today. Two starts back, he finished second behind BC Turf winner Yibir.

Race 10: Maiden Special Weight

#1 Catching Cupid was a solid second last time out on debut. That type of race should be good enough to win todays contest. #8 Hot Rod Rumble is a consistent runner who should set the pace in this spot. However, the horse has had plenty of chances to win, and has failed to finish the deal.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Key Races & Bets for Saturday November 20, 2021

Red Smith Stakes – Race 9 at Aqueduct – Post Time 3:45 PM Eastern

Given there are knocks with the horses likely to be favored by bettors, such as Soldier Rising, who has yet to win in three U.S. starts, particularly when as the eight to five favorite last month in the Hill Prince Stakes, and with Tide of the Sea, who won the Japan Turf Cup takes in October but was beaten as the seven to five favorite last month in the Point of Entry Stakes, I’ll go with Price Talk to win this year’s Red Smith Stakes.

First, Price Talk is the second most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just eight times, but he’s won four of those eight races, including two in a row. Price Talk won the first three races of his career, including when breaking his maiden at first asking, then breaking his maiden again after being disqualified from the first win. Last November, in only the fourth start of his career, Price Talk finished third in the Gio Ponti Stakes on the Aqueduct Turf, but when returning this spring did not run well in two races thereafter. Dropped into a claiming race in August, Price Talk won with a career-best 108 Equibase Speed Figure which was a stakes quality effort, as compared to the 109 figure Shamrocket earned winning the Point of Entry Stakes last month, the 106 figure Corelli earned winning the Singspiel Stakes in August and the 105 figure Serve the King earned when second in the Turf Classic Invitational last month. Price Talk then bettered himself with a 113 figure winning near the end of September, in what turned out to a productive race from which Shamrocket came out of to win the Point of Entry. That 113 figure is tied for the best earned by any horse in this field in 2021 with the figure Channel Cat earned winning the Man o’ War Stakes in May. As such, just repeating it is good enough to win the Red Smith, but I feel he may even better that effort and figure as this will be his third start off a layoff.

Serve the King has done very little wrong in 10 career starts, like Price Talk having won four times in his career. After winning the John’s Call Stakes at the longer distance of one mile and five-eighths with a career-best 107 Equibase figure, Serve the King finished well from sixth to second in the tougher Turf Classic Invitational with a similar 105 figure effort. Irad Ortiz, Jr. was aboard for both of the horse’s “A” efforts and rides back in the Red Smith, giving Serve the King a strong chance for another competitive effort good enough to win.

Shamrocket has more second place finishes (6) in his 20 race career than wins (4), and even more third place finishes (7). Still, his win last month in the Point of Entry Stakes at a mile and one-half earned a career-best 109 figure competitive with the best in this field. Javier Castellano was aboard for that win, and for the colt’s last win before that in June so that is a positive sign particularly as Castellano rode Value Engineering to victory last month as well as Price Talk in his two most recent wins. As such, Shamrocket rounds out a trio of horses I think stand out against the other seven in terms of their probability to win this race.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets:

Price Talk at 9 to 5 odds or higher.

Serve the King and/or Shamrocket at odds of 5 to 2 or higher (whichever is the higher odds near post time, if any).

When we consider wagers on two or more overlays from fair (minimum odds), we can and should adjust our bets accordingly in order to maximize our profit both in the short term and in the long term. That can be best accomplished by using a “Dutching Tool” like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager.com. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas:

Box Price Talk, Serve the King and Shamrocket

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Jean Lafitte Stakes – Race 9 at Delta Downs – Post Time 5:09 PM Eastern (4:09 Central)

Dancin With Angels just won a sprint at Delta Downs three weeks ago, powerfully by 10 lengths with speed to spare. He projects to lead early and the 82 Equibase figure is second only to likely favorite Kaely’s Brother (90), earned when breaking his maiden at Keeneland last month. Both colts are making the third starts of their careers and both are bred to handle this mile trip just fine. Trainer Brinkman won the 2019 Jean Lafitte with Jack the Umpire off a win at Delta a few weeks earlier and I think Dancin With Angels may be able to control the pace and continue to improve to post the mild upset in this race.

Simply Wicked just battled head and head from the start all the way to the wire in an allowance race over the track 14 days ago, coming up a head short on the wire. Prior to that he finished second in a stakes at Canterbury when rallying from sixth and it is likely McMahon (who rode him for the first time earlier this month) will let him relax back in the pack and make a strong late run for a piece at the least. Considering Simply Wicked is the ONLY horse in the field with positive experience in stakes, and that he is trained by high percentage conditioner Robertino Diodoro, he must be given a long look when considering who can run well here.

Kaely’s Brother ships in from Fair Grounds where he’s been training since breaking his maiden sprinting at Keeneland last month. He gets Lasix for the first time, which can’t hurt, and the race he won has proven quite productive as THREE horses have come out of it to win, including the runner-up and third place finishers. Trainer Brad Cox won the 2020 Jean Lafitte with a horse off a maiden win just like Kaely’s Brother and the only knocks are low odds (so not as good a win bet as the other two contenders) and not having run over the track (which the other two contenders have). On the other hand he gets leading jockey Thornton.

Handicapper Picks

Bets:

Win bets:

Dancin With Angels at 5 to 2 or more.

Simply Wicked at 3 to 1 or more.

(This is assuming Kaely’s Brother will be the heavy betting favorite).

Exactas:

Box Dancin With Angels, Simply Wicked and Kaely’s Brother.

Trifectas:

Dancin With Angels, Simply Wicked and Kaely’s Brother over Dancin With Angels, Simply Wicked, Kaely’s Brother, Ghost Cowboy, Down Cold and Vodka Gimlet over Dancin With Angels, Simply Wicked, Kaely’s Brother, Ghost Cowboy, Down Cold and Vodka Gimlet.

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Native Diver Stakes – Race 8 at Del Mar – Post Time 7 PM Eastern (4 pacific)

If you’re not familiar with Occam’s Razor, it’s a theory which boils down to “the simplest explanation is usually the best one.” Looking at this year’s Native Diver field, it’s obvious the horses with the best recent races are the ones to beat, and that means horses likely to be favored, like the Baffert pair of Eight Rings and Ax Man, or Midcourt, who finished second in this race last year and won it 2019, are to be avoided.

That’s because Eight Rings finished a poor fourth last time out in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and even though these are much easier he has NEVER run this nine furlong trip as well as is a need-the-lead type. Similarly, Ax Man is nearly a need-the-lead type as well as is returning from seven months off running two turns without a prep and was beaten 11 lengths in his most recent race. Midcourt was eased in the Awesome Again Stakes at the distance when last seen on 10/2, while Azul Coast (another Baffert runner) was beaten 17 lengths in the Awesome Again. Kiss Today Goodbye was last of eight and beaten 14 lengths when last seen in the similar San Diego Handicap in July.

That leaves us with three horses – Established, Wicked Trick and Bal Harbour, all who finished in-the-money in their most recent races. The knock on Bal Harbour is his 0-0-6 record in nine races this year and last. He comes from mid-pack and will benefit from the likely speed duel between Eight Rings and Ax Man so must be considered a contender, but it would be tough to bet him to win.

Of the two remaining, Established gets top billing, not only because he draws the rail but because he’s only run 10 times, winning three. Two of those came in his last two starts, shortly after joining the Baltas barn, and the most recent with Victor Espinoza in the saddle. Espinoza doesn’t ride as many horses as in years past, but he’s won with four of 17 at the meeting and he was the regular rider for Midcourt for years, winning this race in 2019 and finishing second last year. Not only does Established have excellent tactical speed to sit third off the dueling leaders, as a son of Constitution (sire of Tiz the Law, among others) he is bred to ADORE this nine furlong trip. With that in mind I’ll back Established strongly to win this year’s Native Diver Stakes.

Wicked Trick was claimed in New York this summer and given two months off, showing up in the Bob Hess, Jr. barn in October for nothing more than a sprint prep. Stretched out to a mile on 11/4, Wicked Trick moved up mid-race from fourth to lead, perhaps a bit too soon, and then settled for second. This is a classic sprint-route-route pattern and making his third start off the layoff Wicked Trick could run a big race. He’s earned over $400K in his career, winning of placing in 14 of 33 races, and he finished second in the similar Westchester Stakes in May behind Dr. Post, who has earned nearly 900K in his career. With hot jockey Umberto Rispoli getting on and being a horse that can finish nicely, Wicked Trick is the other horse I feel has the bulk of the probability to win this race, and if he and Established go to post above minimum odds I will absolutely be betting them both to win.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets:

Established at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Wicked Trick at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

This is precisely the race to use a DUTCHING TOOL like the one at Amwager which is free and easy to use.

Exactas:

Box Established, Wicked Trick and Bal Harbour.

Trifectas:

Established and Wicked Trick over Established, Wicked Trick and Bal Harbour over ALL.

Established and Wicked Trick over ALL over Established, Wicked Trick and Bal Harbour.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Daily Horse Racing Tips – Churchill Downs – 20th November
By Spotlight Racing Group

NAP Obligatory (5.36pm – Churchill Downs – Race 10)
Next Best Here Mi Song (5.06pm – Churchill Downs – Race 9)
Other La Neblina (3.36pm – Churchill Downs – Race 6)
Obligatory to storm home

Race 10 at Churchill Downs is the $300,000 Chilukki Stakes for the female division over a mile on the dirt and there’s plenty going for William Mott’s Obligatory, who has won here in the past and remains a filly of some potential.

This daughter of Curlin. who is the youngest horse in this field at three years old, had just the one start at two where she finished fourth at Belmont Park towards the back end of last year, before starting this calendar year with an authoritative display in a Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Park, and has since been campaigned solely in graded events.

After finishing fourth in the Fair Grounds Oaks, she was very good when beating Dayoutoftheoffice in the Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes here at Churchill Downs whilst looking like she needed every yard of the seven-furlong trip that day and will be suited to this mile distance on what will be her second run at this course.

Two of her last four runs have resulted in two second-place finishes in Grade 1 events behind the likes of Search Results and Clairiere so if she can run close to that then she should win this, and expect her to be delivered late under Joel Rosario as she possesses a nice turn of foot.

Here Mi coming

A competitive $127,000 six furlong Allowance is Race 9 at Churchill Downs and Tulane Tryst is to be feared here but preference is for Here Mi Song who is improving really nicely and has a good draw in the middle of the pack.

Form figures since making his debut in August read 5421 so it is clear to see this gelding is getting the hang of things and he showed a very likeable attitude to shed that maiden tag when beating Carmel Crush by a hard-fought neck over this trip at Keeneland last month whilst showing that there could be plenty more to come.

In summary, this gelding is improving with every run, he has a nice draw in stall five, has course experience with a second here two starts ago and can take this step up in grade in his stride.

Improvement expected from Neblina

La Neblina failed to show over six furlongs on her debut here just a few weeks ago but she is a daughter of Tonalist who won on her second start as a two-year-old and it would not surprise should this filly show dramatic improvement in this $50,000 Maiden Claiming contest, Race 6 at Churchill Downs.

This is an open race featuring plenty of debutantes so having that run under her belt could prove vital and she steps up an extra half a furlong in distance also which should aid her cause, and it would not surprise should she hit the board at a big price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

November 20, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a star-studded 14-race program set to go tonight. The all stakes Early 0.50 Pick 4 begins in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

7-Venerable (1/1)-Romped in the Matron at Dover after making a rare break in the Crown Elimination. Winner of 9 in 10 starts will be posing again unless the trip is very bumpy. This 2-year-old filly has been a trotting machine.

Race 7

1-Atlanta (2-1)-Gingras has options, but my guess is he won't be leading off the gate. This champion mare likes a target, and she should be in striking range at the head of the lane. The top foes will be leaving from the outside. That could be difference enough to seal the deal for the 7th win in 12 starts this year.
8-When Dovescry (4-1)-This mare is as tough as nails and has the ability to win this race even with this post draw. Miller knows how to steal a quarter but first needs to get the point without burning a lot of gas. The other option would be to duck and look to come off cover, but either way an aggressive steer is needed.

Race 8

4-Hammering Hank (9/5)-Hank is in sharp form, even the 4th place finish in the Crown Final from post 8 in the slop was impressive. Winner of 2 straight as an odds-on choice has looked the part and should continue rolling here.

Race 9

4-Forbidden Trade (5/2)-Dube takes the lines for the injured McClure, and he knows how to come with speed and race on the point. This Blais trainee has been idle since a rough trip in the Crown Final. Will be tough to catch if ready for a top effort.
5-Beads (8-1)-Gingras should have this Engblom trainee forwardly placed and could take advantage of an efficient trip. Winner of 5 in 18 Big M starts should be in the mix at a solid price if minds manners.
7-Ready For Moni (5-1)-Comes off a big try from post 8 in the Crown Final and that was the 1st start on Lasix. This Takter trainee has hit the board 11 times in 12 starts at M1 with 5 pictures. Could be sitting on a big try and might be overlooked at the windows.
8-Back Of The Neck (7/2)-Here is another that comes off a monster effort in the Final from post 10. Sizzled the last quarter in 26.2 to cash a 2nd place check. Not sure what plan Zeron will follow tonight and won't be 62-1 but should be a player in a completive affair.

0.50 Late Pick 4

7/1,8/4/4,5,7,8
Total Bet=$18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Wagering Strategies - Nov. 20, 2021

November 20, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Cali Bay; 2-Square Cat

Forecast: Cali Bay earned a career top speed figure when missing by a neck in a similar five-furlong turf dash at Santa Anita last month and today shows up as a first-time gelding while drawing the coveted inside post position. He’s worked well in the interim and should be primed for another forward move, though his lack of tactical speed over a course and distance that heavily favors the speed makes his quest for a diploma-producing victory somewhat challenging. Square Cat is worth including on your rolling exotic ticket as well. The son of Square Eddie, a somewhat respectable third in his debut at 17-1, has a right to step forward with that bit of experience behind him, and with a healthy series of workouts since that race for trainer B. Koriner (solid stats with the second-time starter angle) he should have a decent price chance at 6-1 on the morning line.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-T Bones Trick; 7-Family Biz

Forecast: T Bones Trick joins the high-percentage J. Wong barn for his first start since mid-September and the veteran gelding shows a recent solid series of drills to indicate he’s ready for a major effort for a barn that hits at a strong 24% with the layoff angle. A prior winner over the Del Mar main track, the son of Midnight Lute should settle nicely in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Family Biz plummets in class to his cheapest level ever ($16,000) after being claimed for $40,000 by J. Mullins two races back. Obviously, this is not the healthiest of patterns but if the son of Fed Biz has one good one left, he could easily snap back to form against this group. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to T Bones Trick.

Notable Workouts:

T Bones Trick (November 13, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.2). Grade: B
In blinkers and shadow roll, finished in a breeze outside Barbiere (same time) for J. Wong, splits of :23.3 and :47.3, a tick slower than given on our watch but quite nice, nonetheless. Freshened since mid-September and looks sharp and eager.
View Workout Video

Family Biz (November 6, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.2h TT). Grade: B+
May have gone a tad slower than given but was under cruise control throughout in solo bullet training track drill (fastest of 9), final three furlongs in 12 flat and :36.1, plenty left while looking like his old self. Perked up and ready to snap back to good form.
View Workout Video

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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Trickle In; 5-Zero Tolerance

Forecast: Zero Tolerance is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this five-furlong optional allowance claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares and looks very much like an odds-on choice on paper. A smart winner down the Hillside Course in the Unzip S. in early October, the daughter of Mizzen Mast failed to stay a mile when weakening under pressure to wind up fourth in the subsequent Autumn Miss S.-G3 three weeks ago. Back sprinting and dropping into the second-level allowance ranks, the P. Miller-trained filly should outclass this group. Trickle In may be worth using on a ticket or two as a back-up. She’s a quick sort, and over a course that heavily promotes speed the D. Blacker-trained filly could get loose early and take this field a long way.

Notable Workouts:

Trickle In (November 5, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.1h TT). Grade: B-
Was under stout restraint throughout in solo training track drill, final three furlongs in :37.3 looking fine but never changing leads. Seems to have all of her speed, probably more comfortable on grass.
View Workout Video

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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Head for Business; 4-Wearenotbadpeople

Forecast: Wearenotbadpeople, a first-off-the-claim play for Bay Area-based trainer Q. Howey, finished a close fourth over this track and distance last month in his second career start and won’t really need to improve much to graduate in this soft maiden $50,000 abbreviated sprint for older state-bred runners. A beaten choice in both starts, the son of Clubhouse Ride so far has trained a bit better than he’s run and may not be one to trust, but with plenty of room to improve the sophomore gelding deserves one more chance. Head for Business already has had eight races without winning but has hit the board on four occasions and has speed figures that are tops in the field. He’s never been one to fight back in the final furlong when put to pressure but against this group he might be able to open up and then hang on. In a race that otherwise should be left alone, both should be included in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Hail Freedom; 3-Prince Abama

Forecast: Prince Abama missed at 4/5 in a similar two-turn maiden turf affair last month at Santa Anita but earned a better than par speed figure in the process and today adds blinkers, so the Irish-bred gelding seems likely to be a relatively short price once again. A bullet half mile training track drill (:47 4/5, fastest of 15) catches the eye, and from a cozy three-hole position regular rider U. Rispoli should be able to dictate his trip. Hail Freedom is slower on numbers than our top pick but has hit the board in his last six starts and could find himself as the controlling speed if rating tactics are employed by the sprinter-stretching-out Sai Con. Even if relegated to a stalking position, the California-bred son of Box Score projects as a major player every step of the way. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics and then press in the win pool with Prince Abama on top.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Adare Manor; 4-Micro Share

Forecast: Unless there is a top prospect among the first-time starters, Adare Manor should be set to graduate at a short price in this extended sprint for maiden juvenile fillies. The daughter of Uncle Mo displayed good speed under pressure throughout and then just failed to last when second, beaten a neck, in a strong maiden special weight sprint at Santa Anita late last month. With that race behind and for a barn that has superior stats with the second-time starter angle, the B. Baffert-trained filly is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite but seems likely to go shorter. Among the newcomers, Micro Share may be the most dangerous and probably is worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up. A $450,000 OBS April sale graduate, the daughter of Upstart smoked a quarter of a mile in :20 4/5 in a breeze during the preview session that led to her expensive purchase, and a recent gate drill in company with impressive debut winner Unbridled Mary was pretty decent as well.

Notable Workouts:

Adare Manor (November 12, Santa Anita, 4f, 47.2h). Grade: B+
Just galloping in effortless drill, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36.2 (probably went a couple of ticks slower than given). Uncle Mo filly seems certain to improve with experience and distance.
View Workout Video

Micro Share (October 24, Santa Anita, 3f, :36.1hg)
In blinkers, was slightly second best with Unbridled Mary (5f, 1:00.3hg) and Cardoza (4f, :48.3hg), mild some coaxing in useful drill while in company with a subsequent impressive first out winner. Appears to have some speed, recorded three fast drills following this late October drill. Would have to think she can be competitive first time out.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Big Coupe; 4-Secret Club; 11-Midnight Jostar

Forecast: Secret Club looks well-spotted for a winning effort after stringing together three straight third place finishes in similar first-level allowance competition, most recently as the 6/5 favorite in a 10-furlong affair at Santa Anita. His numbers are strong, and with regular pilot F. Prat serving a suspension good grass rider J. Bravo picks up the mount and should give him the patient ride he requires. This will be his first race in blinkers, so perhaps the son of Clubhouse Ride will show renewed spark, so at 4-1 on the morning line there’s value to be found in the win pool and in rolling exotic play. Big Coupe has won his last pair in convincing fashion and could be this good if his improvement continues. The lightly raced son of Lakerville has rising numbers but needs another forward move to make him a threat in this league. Never off the board in seven starts, the L. Powell-trained gelding should be prominent throughout. Midnight Jostar gets the worst of the draw but is another with steadily improving form and a prior win over the Del Mar turf course. He’ll need some help up front to have his best chance, but the P. D’Amato-trained gelding continues to impress in the a.m. and is worth including somewhere at 6-1 on the morning line.

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RACE 8: 4:00 PT Grade:
Use: 2-Midcourt; 5-Azul Coast; 6-Eight Rings

Forecast: We’re not really sure if Eight Rings wants to go nine furlongs but he certainly has the pedigree to get the distance and based on his recent races the B. Baffert-trained colt seems to be returning to his Grade-1 winning form of his 2-year-old season. A distant but respectable fourth behind Life Is Good in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile-G2 two weeks ago, the son of Empire Maker is wheeled back quickly in this year’s edition of the Native Diver S.-G3 and offers a good gamble at 7/2 on the morning line. Del Mar specialist Midcourt, virtually eased in the Awesome Again S.-G1 in early October, has bounced back successfully in the past after a poor run and is more than capable of winning at this level with his best effort. The son of Midnight Lute is most comfortable on the front end, so we suspect gate-to-wire tactics will be employed. Azul Coast is a fit on numbers based on his clever overnight win over the local main track two races back. He’s reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and project to enjoy a good second flight trip and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home.

Notable Workouts:

Eight Rings (November 15, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B+
In blinkers, broke off several lengths behind Crew Dragon (4f, :49.1h) and rallied inside to prove much best while breezing through the lane, splits of :23.4 and :36 flat from the three furlong pole out to the seven furlong pole. On top of his game.
View Workout Video

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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Dixie’s Two Stents

Forecast: Dixie’s Two Stents drops to the bottom-rung maiden $20,000 level and appears to have found a proper spot to graduate. His close fourth place finish over the Del Mar main track two races back in a maiden special weight sprint earned a speed figure that should allow him to outdistance his modest foes, and while this class drop indicates the son of Quality Road is being culled from the stable the move seems reasonable. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding looks like a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Hawthorne - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 Rave On She ran okay in a couple of Arlington tries this summer, and she should be in line for a great trip while tracking the pace. Interesting at a mid-range price.
#6 Unembellished He looks like the one to beat, but his best career race came for a claiming tag, and he has tossed in some really modest races along the way. Wouldn't want too short a price here.
#8 J J's Solution Thought about giving this guy a flyer on top, as he has plenty of pedigree to suggest he'll be better around two turns and on the turf than he was in the dirt sprint debut. He'll be on my tickets.
Race Summary Rave On has been fairly reliable in his two turf routes, and a couple of the main players in here have some questions to answer. Think even 17-start maiden #2 Dynablue has a chance.

Hawthorne - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 Junior Bug He steps up off the claim for a very dangerous team, and he isn't far removed from route form that would be competitive with this bunch. He fared well at similar levels at Fair Grounds last winter, so the hike isn't a real issue. Tough.
#3 Amended Dropper has been trying to clear the first-level allowance condition for quite some time, but there are some races on his page that might leave the rest running for second if he's able to bring his best.
#9 Coni's Coup He just ran a good one on the main, and something like that might be good enough if this one comes over again. He has some okay turf form, but he seems to have progressed since adding blinkers and might appreciate a second try on the turf with them.
Race Summary Junior Bug might be the right one here while moving into a high-powered barn, and he has a little bit of tactical pace to find a good spot into the first turn.

Hawthorne - Race #7
Picks Notes
#6 Samurai Cause Broberg barn willing to lose this one on the drop here after taking a couple steps back in recent starts, but this claiming tag is still higher than what they paid for him five starts back, so this doesn't feel panicky. Anything approaching his best lands this.
#2 Storminside He gets out of starter company this time around after a modest try, and he was the easiest of winners at this level when trying it two starts back. There doesn't seem to be an overflow of pace on paper, so he can be tough up top.
#3 Colonel Klink The recent form isn't much to look at, but he has been facing significantly tougher than what he's meeting here, and maybe the drop wakes him up enough to bring something better today.
Race Summary Samurai Cause can be tough here while getting some class relief -- he didn't work out as a long-term class hiker, but he landed a couple of nice runner-up finishes with better company off the claim.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Dayton Raceway - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 WHATABOY Chased winner to stretch, tired, faces many of same rivals.
#1 GENERAL IDEA Held up by stalled cover in third quarter in otherwise dull try as the fave.
#2 CALL ME MR FLASH Takes magnified class drop, driver's choice over top one.
Race Summary Taking a stand against morning-line favorite Rose Run Ulysses, who paced evenly against better but starts for the 81st time since 2020. Whataboy willingly pursued the 2-1 winner, pulled out of the pocket at the top of the stretch but tired at 28-1 in a much improved try. Play a 1-2-3 exacta box.

Hoosier Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 TRIATHLON AS Should live up to favoritism on another class drop, key in all bets.
#2 COLLETTES Responded to front-end tactics, led until favorite caught up late.
#5 DR M Two front-end wins in October, back in the proper spot.
Race Summary Triathlon As made a middle move to lead at the stretch call in a tougher condition. She faded to finish fifth, but should sit an ideal trip and sustain a winning rally in this spot. Bet on her to win and place.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 WIND BLOWN Surged 3-wide late into blanket finish with the favorites.
#3 ROCKME ROLLME Sports 72/15-15-15 record, needs some pace flow.
#2 COLD CREEK CABO Second in last pair at this level, meets several class risers.
Race Summary Wind Blown tipped 3-wide off live cover for the stretch drive and lost in a photo-finish to the pocket-sitting winner and favored pace-setter Forefather, who draws post 9 tonight. He steps up in class but starts from the rail. Play a 1-2 and 1-3 exactas.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#6 Rebel Rumble Makes his third off the claim for Broberg after losing a three-horse photo two back and tiring from early efforts last out; Vazquez picks up the mount and can save some horse for the finish.
#2 Deja Crew Was up in time vs. similar last out and has won a couple over this strip; in the hunt from the start.
#1 Daaher's Success Can benefit from the inside run and could tuck in just off a fast pace; has been running against much better and the drop to the bottom is rather abrupt.
Race Summary Rebel Rumble has tactical speed might be overlooked in the wagering; his best races place him firmly in the mix.

Remington Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#8 Kind of Gallant Crushed maiden claimers last out and has the speed to get to the lead from the outside post; it took 15 times to break the maiden, but the performance in his first over the main track here indicates he should be tough in this N2L spot.
#5 Mean Cannon Makes his first start since May and looks for his second win since January; has some good works for his return.
#3 Wicked Rebel Dropped out of a much tougher spot and makes his first here after racing at Monmouth and Parx.
Race Summary Kind of Gallant was very impressive in an easy win last out and can put himself in good position from the start.

Remington Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 In the Vault Drops out of allowance races in which she showed excellent speed; the class drop can help boost her to the finish.
#3 Black Magic Lady Is another on the class drop and she has two fourth-place finishes to her credit; moves over from the turf.
#9 Take Charge Woman Was third at a higher level last out and can be in good position throughout; has five seconds in 17 starts and has to find some late punch.
Race Summary In the Vault has the speed to get to the lead and should be able to finish well at this level.

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RACE #7
TIME: 10:02 PM EST
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