Tuesday 11/23/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Delta Downs (1st) Wicked Flashback, 9-2
(3rd) Flashy Meg, 3-1

Finger Lakes (4th) As You Were, 3-1
(5th) Silent Invasion, 3-1

Mahoning Valley (2nd) Rivers of Life, 3-1
(7th) I Am Iron Man, 8-1

Mountaineer (2nd) Runaway Crown, 7-2
(8th) Jesse Jones, 3-1

Parx Racing (1st) Conservative Values, 7-2
(6th) Spartak, 9-2

Penn National (1st) Hill Valley, 8-1
(7th) Wood Bee, 7-2

Remington Park (3rd) Crazy Legs Hirsch, 9-2
(7th) Courageous Timmy, 6-1

Turf Paradise (3rd) Put Your Pants On, 4-1
(7th) Count Alexei, 4-1

Zia Park (3rd) Jazzie Dream, 8-1
(7th) Tyler’s Dream, 6-1

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Monday Myths: Do Maiden Claimers Cause Chaos?

November 22, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Maiden claiming races are the most unpredictable, and therefore are the most likely spread races in multi-race bets.

Background:

Crack open the past performances, and you’re sure to see a full-field maiden claiming race at Anytrack USA. Venues are overflowing with maidens, and the lower-level runners all are looking for a place to graduate against other unsuccessful sorts. Many horseplayers frown at these races for a perceived lack of predictability that goes with their poor form and apparent lack of deserving trust. But are maiden claiming races the most likely for upset and most vulnerable?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all races run in 2021 through November 21. I specifically categorized them by race class to see which had the most trustworthy favorites, the most logical average winning price and the most likelihood for longshot winners (10-1 or more). In order to compare for field size impact, the comparisons are for identical fields of 10 runners -- a key component to this study.

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In 2021, maiden claiming races had an average winner at 5.87-1 odds.
In 2021, maiden special weight races had an average winner at 6.62-1 odds.
In 2021, claiming races had an average winner at 6.72-1 odds.
In 2021, allowance races had an average winner at 6.31-1 odds.
In 2021, stakes races had an average winner at 6.53-1 odds.

//

In 2021, maiden claiming favorites won 33.6% with a $0.85 ROI for every $1 bet.
In 2021, maiden special weight favorites won 34.7% with a $0.89 ROI for every $1 bet.
In 2021, claiming favorites won 31.6% with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.
In 2021, allowance favorites won 28.8% with a $0.79 ROI for every $1 bet.
In 2021, stakes favorites won 37.7% with a $0.93 ROI for every $1 bet.

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In 2021 maiden claiming races, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 2.7% win rate.
In 2021 maiden special weight races, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 3.0% win rate.
In 2021 claiming races, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 3.5% win rate.
In 2021 allowance races, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 3.2% win rate.
In 2021 stakes, horses 10-1 or more odds had a 2.5% win rate.

Overall Findings:

Maiden claiming races have had the lowest average odds for winners among all race classes this year when all races are adjusted for field size of 10. The gap is .44 points lower than allowance races, which is second-lowest and as much as .85 points compared to claiming races, the highest. Of the 5 classes, maiden claiming favorites fell right in the middle at third-highest in terms of win rate and ROI for betting on them. Maiden claiming races were second-least likely for longshot winners at 10-1 or more at .2 percent behind stakes races.

Bottom line:

Claiming and allowance races both are clearly less predictable overall than maiden claiming races when searching the race conditions for ‘spread’ races. Their winners pay more on average, their favorites win less often, and their longshots strike at a significantly higher rate. The assumption that maiden claiming races invite chaos is false based on this year’s numbers nationally.

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, how does your favorite track stack up with the national average? Do these numbers shift between turf, dirt and synthetic surfaces?

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Today’s Free Horse Picks – Tuesday, November 23rd 2021
By Reggie Garrett

We have 4 tracks on Tuesday, November 23rd, 2021. Reggie Garrett has his picks for each race at Turf Paradise, Parx and more. Good luck and enjoy!


Mahoning Valley – 12:45 ET
Race 1: 3 Sugar Mac
Race 2: 3 Freddy Soto
Race 3: 7 Beat the Dealer
Race 4: 2 Windy Lu Who
Race 5: 8 Sure Fire Ready
Race 6: 6 Cooper’s Crescent
Race 7: 1 Empty Talk
Race 8: 7 Poolside Cocktails


Mountaineer – 7:00 ET
Race 1: 2 Orbette
Race 2: 5 Fancy Lancy
Race 3: 3 Maddy Machen
Race 4: 1 Amicus Brief
Race 5: 3 Balk
Race 6: 2 Salty Snapper
Race 7: 1 Sharpin
Race 8: 10 Jesse Jones


Parx – 12:10 ET
Race 1: 4 Conservative Values
Race 2: 3 Galileo’s Affair
Race 3: 6 Doctor Doom
Race 4: 7 Tactical Plan
Race 5: 4 Run Fast
Race 6: 10 Spartak
Race 7: 7 Here’s Waldo
Race 8: 6 Icy Cold
Race 9: 6 Tudox Expectations
Race 10: 1 El Sobreviviente


Turf Paradise – 12:40 MT
Race 1: 2 Back to Business
Race 2: 3 Silly Notion
Race 3: 2 Nevadan
Race 4: 6 Lila’s Lucky Lady
Race 5: 6 Parawan
Race 6: 3 Esteemed
Race 7: 1 Count Alexei
Race 8: 5 Working

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Best Horse Racing Bets for Tuesday, November 23, 2021
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing

I went to Finger Lakes Racetrack, Mahoning Valley Race Course, and Remington Park for my racing picks for Tuesday.

I had to agree with the morning line on a surprising number of picks, but I still managed to pinpoint some solid underdogs—including a 6/1 sleeper—to enhance our bankrolls and lift our spirits. But mostly to enhance our bankrolls.

Remember that you can always find the full race-cards for all the races at our best online racebooks.

Good luck!

My Tuesday Picks for Finger Lakes Racetrack

Let’s start on the main track with race two, a mile and 70 yards starter optional claiming race for three-year-olds and upward.

Looks like we’re starting out with a no-brainer, with our obvious pick the 6/5 morning-line favorite, Our Caravan, ridden by Andre Shivnarine Worrie.
This ten-year-old gelding finished in the money 46 of his 63 career starts, winning 26 of them, including all four he entered in 2021. He hasn’t failed to money a race since 2019. Our Caravan is, as they say, a professional horse.

In comparison, the 7/2 second-favored coupled entries (1/1A) can’t match Our Caravan even by combining the two horses’ records: 74 starts, 39 money finishes, and eleven wins.

Parenthetically speaking, I’m not sure what the morning line was thinking here, since Our Caravan’s most likely competition will be the third-favored (at 9/2) Anything Pazible, who’s got better stats than either of the 1/1A coupled entries.

Our Caravan is trained by owner Michael S. Ferraro, who has put Worrie in the irons for Our Caravan’s last eight races, resulting in five wins. Incidentally, Worrie is currently having the winningest year of his career.

Race seven is a one mile and 70 yards allowance run on the main track for New York-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward. I like the second-favored (at 9/5) Gone and Forgotten, with top jockey Luis E. Perez aboard.

This three-year-old filly moneyed five of her six career stars, winning four, including her last two. And yes, I see that the 6/5 favorite, U Guys Are No Fun, finished second in the New York Oaks (Black Type) in July, but that was a four-horse race, three of which finished far behind the winner.

Michael S. Ferraro trains Gone and Forgotten for owner Barry K. Schwartz. Ferraro has tapped Perez to saddle Gone and Forgotten for all six of her races.

For race eight—a six-furlong allowance race on the main track for New York-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward—I’m betting my two dollars on the 5/1 underdog Mind of Gold, piloted by veteran jockey Kevin Navarro.
This four-year-old filly finished ten of her 12 career starts in the money, winning three of them. Her speed figures are comparable to those of the morning-line favorite’s. She’ll do.

Robert W. Cook trains Mind of Gold for owner Rosaury Birriel Pizzaro.
Tuesday’s Picks for Mahoning Valley Race Course

We’re on the main track for race three, a one mile and 70 yards allowance run for Ohio-bred three-year-olds and upward. I like the second-favored (at 2/1) Ridge West, piloted by top jockey Angel I. Diaz.

This four-year-old gelding finished in the money for eleven of his 20 career starts, winning four, which gives him a paper-thin statistical edge over the morning-line favorite.

Nabu Morales trains Ridge West for owner Michael J. Friedman.

Race four is a six-furlong allowance run on the main track for Ohio-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward that have never won four races.

I have to agree with the morning line here and bet my money on the 8/5 favorite, Nancy’s Leslie, with veteran jockey Luan Machado in the irons.
This four-year-old filly moneyed five of her six career starts, winning three, which gives her a significant statistical lead in this seven-horse field.

With nearly three decades in the racing business, William D. Cowans trains Nancy’s Leslie for owners Nancy Frieland and Leslie Murgul.

Race five is a six-furlong allowance run on the main track for Ohio-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward that have never won two races. I’m calling this race for the second-favored (at 5/2) Not a Wild Brat, with veteran jockey Luis Raul Rivera aboard.

The rationale behind my choice here is simple. While the morning-line favorite moneyed her first three maiden attempts and then won her fourth, this three-year-old filly won her initial maiden attempt, then went on the money finishes in three allowance races. Advantage: Not a Wild Brat.

Jeffrey A. Radosevich trains Not a Wild Brat for M. Y. Stables, Inc. Radosevich has put Rivera in the irons for all four of Not a Wild Brat’s races.
Tuesday Picks for Remington Park

Let’s start on the main track with race three, a 6-1/2 furlong claiming race for three-year-olds and upward. My money’s on the 6/1 sleeper, Good Scout, ridden by veteran jockey Stewart Elliott.

This four-year-old gelding finished in the money ten of his 18 career starts, winning five. His 2021 record is superior to that of the morning-line favorite’s: Six money finishes in eight starts, three of them wins. Most notably, Good Scout finished second in the Bucharest Stakes (Black Type) at Sam Houston Race Park in April.

Longtime racing veteran J.R. Caldwell trains Good Scout for Farmers Fillies Racing.

Race four is a one-mile allowance run on the main track for Oklahoma-bred three-year-old fillies. I’m betting my two dollars on the 2/1 morning-line favorite, Run Slewpy Run, piloted by Luis S. Quinonez.
This filly moneyed six of her nine career starts, winning four, including the Bob Barry Memorial Stakes (Black Type) in September and the Oklahoma Classics Distaff Turf Stakes (Black Type) in October—both at Remington Park. In this seven-horse field, Run Slewpy Run is the horse with momentum.

Jesse Oberlander trains Run Slewpy Run for owner-breeder Walter M. Jones.

Race five is a 6-1/2-furlong allowance race on the main track for Oklahoma-bred three-year-olds and upward. I like the 3/1 morning-line favorite, Salt Creek Kid, with top jockey David Cabrera in the irons.

This three-year-old gelding moneyed both of his career starts, winning his initial maiden attempt in October, then finishing second in an allowance race earlier this month. Versus the rest of this ten-horse field, he’ll do.

With two decades in the horseracing business, co-owner J. Sue Hunt trains Salt Creek Kid for Donnie Reed and herself.

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Daily Horse Racing Tips – Zia Park – 23rd November
By Spotlight Racing Group

Trainer Steve Asmussen
NAP: Lady Mystify (11:03)
Next Best: Tenfold (10:36)
Other: Canoodling (9:15)
Mystify to take Oaks

The best bet on the card on Zia Park’s biggest day of the year comes in the final race, the Zia Park Oaks over a mile-and-one-sixteenth on the main track, and comes in the shape of Graded stakes winner Lady Mystify.

Peter Eurton’s charge has won three of her five starts to date and while she took three starts to get off the mark she did so in impressive fashion when scoring by eighteen lengths in a maiden special weight over an extended mile at Santa Anita in early February.

Since then, the daughter of Bernardini has won twice more from three starts, with the most recent of those victories coming in the Grade 3 Remington Park Oaks over this distance in September.

The fillies' chief rival here looks to be the runner-up that day, Pauline’s Pearl, but having demonstrated good form in the mornings since, including when delivering a 1:00.20 breeze over five furlongs at Santa Anita just over a week ago, Lady Mystify can register a second stakes success with regular pilot Flavien Prat booked to ride.

Tenfold in handicap

Steve Asmussen’s Tenfold looks to hold a favourite's chance in the Zia Park Championship Handicap over a mile-and-one-eighth having registered a string of solid efforts in stakes company.

The most recent of those efforts came when going down by a nose over this distance at Albuquerque when the entire field had to overcome a bad bump at the start. The front two pulled well clear of their seven rivals on that occasion and it’s notable that the son of Curlin has acquitted himself well in Graded stakes events in the past, including when a three lengths fourth in a mile-and-a-half contest on turf at Sam Houston at the end of January when making his 2021 debut.

Irad Ortiz’s mount delivered a solid 1:01.17 five furlong work at Remington Park earlier this month and with the best form coming into this contest, the six-year-old can overcome a wide draw to deliver a fifth career success on his first start at this venue.

Canoodling can claim Distaff

The four-year-old Casual comes into the Zia Park Distaff with strong form having performed well in stakes company this year, including when runner-up at Remington Park last time out. However, she may have to give best to her less exposed rival Canoodling, who has won five of her 11 starts to date.

The most recent of those victories came when drawing four lengths clear of the field, including her rival here Shanghai Keely (second), in an allowance contest over six-and-one-half-furlongs at Albuquerque in September.

The daughter of Pioneerof The Nile has won over this trip in the past and, while she is stepping up in class here, she has won three of her last four starts, including in a minor stakes event over seven furlongs at Albuquerque in August, and can spring a surprise for trainer Todd Fincher.

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INTERSTATE RACING TIPS – NOVEMBER 23RD
RSN927

RSN Form Analyst Terry Spargo covers all the daily racing tips for the NSW meeting at Ballina on Tuesday the 23rd of November.

Along with our Interstate Racing Tips, you’ll find Greyhound and Harness Tips, plus a full preview of every Victorian meeting, each and every day of the week with RSN927’s Expert Tipsters and race-callers.

Rail Position: True
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Heavy 8
Weather: Showers
Terry Spargo Ballina Tips

Ballina, 23rd November 2021

Race 1 Selections:3,7,1,6
Race 2 Selections:5,6,10,4
Race 3 Selections:12,2,8,5
Race 4 Selections:4,7,6,3
Race 5 Selections:2,3,5,4
Race 6 Selections:4,7,10,5
Race 7 Selections:7,12,9,15
Race 8 Selections:
Race 9 Selections

RSN Form Analyst Michael Charge covers all the daily racing tips for the QLD meeting at Cairns on Tuesday the 23rd of November.

Rail Position: +2m 1400m-320m (Cutaway applies); True Remainder
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Good 4
Weather: Fine
Penetrometer: 5.31
Michael Charge

Cairns, 23rd November 2021

Race 1 Selections:2,1,3,4
Race 2 Selections:1,4,3,5
Race 3 Selections:1,2,5,6
Race 4 Selections:1,2,3,4
Race 5 Selections:1,2,4,7
Race 6 Selections:4,5,1,2
Race 7 Selections:4,7,3,2
Best Bet

Race 2 Number 1 Dunatun
Next Best

Race 5 Number 1 Auxin
Quaddie

Quaddie 1:1,2
Quaddie 2:1,2
Quaddie 3:4,5,1
Quaddie 4:4,7

RSN Form Analyst Phil Roberts covers all the daily racing tips for the NSW meeting at Newcastle on Tuesday the 23rd of November.
Phil Robertsy Newcastle Tip

Newcastle, 23rd November 2021

Race 1 Selections:4,5,9,1
Race 2 Selections:1,2,6,9
Race 3 Selections: 4,1,3,2
Race 4 Selections:6,7,4,5
Race 5 Selections:5,11,1,3
Race 6 Selections:1,2,9,7
Race 7 Selections:5,12,7,8

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Today's Horse Racing Tips: Tuesday November 23rd
Stephen Harris

bettingexpert Racing editor
Today’s Racing Tips – November 23nd

There are four meetings in Britain and Ireland on Tuesday, with low grade jumps action from Sedgefield and Southwell, all-weather twilight action from Wolverhampton and a competitive and informative card at Punchestown. The continuing dry spell in the UK continues to decimate the fields, with trainers understandably reluctant to run their better horses on ground that is unseasonably on the faster side of good.
SELECTION Track Time (UK) Horse ODDS
DAILY NAP Southwell 1:55pm Sure Touch TBD
VALUE ANGLE Southwell 12:50pm Larkbarrow Lad 6.50

Best odds available as at 2pm November 22nd 2021. Odds may now differ.
Today’s Daily Nap

Sure Touch

Southwell, 1:55pm

Olly Murphy has a terrific team of youngsters this season, and he has found a terrific opening for this bumper winner to make a winning hurdling debut in a small field at Southwell on Tuesday.
Today’s Value Angle

Larkbarrow Lad

Southwell, 12:50pm

Phillip Hobbs chaser shaped a lot better than the bare result after 5 months off the track at Exeter last month, bang there three out but fading up the straight as lack of a recent run told. He is now well handicapped on the pick of his form, and will relish the drying ground conditions here.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Penn National - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 Russian Melody Think she's fast enough to have the front again here, and she doesn't seem overmatched while trying starter company this time around. Chance she gets brave.
#3 Note to Selfie She cuts back off a sharp route score while protected off the claim, and while she's capable with this kind going short, I think her best game right now might be going long, and I wouldn't want to take an unappealing price here.
#1 Blue Sky Venezuela She occasionally shows enough pace to keep up from this inside draw, but her best chance here probably comes from settling in and saving some ground behind the pace. Her form can be a bit spotty, but her best stuff might do.
Race Summary Russian Melody steps into a tougher spot here, but I'm not sure it's the deepest group for this level, and she has a pretty advantageous race shape waiting for her on paper today. Think she can wire these.

Penn National - Race #6
Picks Notes
#5 Huntress Moon She showed some nice finishing ability on the synthetic in her debut run, and she should get a decent enough pace to chase in a race where most of them tend to give away ground late in the lane.
#4 Run Laura Run She has some pace, but she's going to have some company up top early tonight. Think she has a bit of upside while getting Lasix off the claim, and maybe she fires fresh here for the new team. Think it's a good sign that she's protected after the claim nine months ago.
#6 Bound by Truth She didn't stay in the debut run after being a part of the early battle, but she drew near the inside that day and now gets the right kind of draw to prompt the pace from the outside. A better effort here wouldn't surprise.
Race Summary Huntress Moon should get the right kind of setup today if all the pace shows, and she has some upside in this second start while adding the hood. Blinkers keep her in the game earlier tonight?

Penn National - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 Hard Chant She has a right to be pretty tough with these while moving into a solid barn off the claim, and she has the kind of pace that can discourage a group like this without a ton of serious finishing ability. Should be good for a thrill up top.
#6 Expurgated Her form can be pretty spotty, so I'd want a fair price, but she should be able to find a first-over type of trip if the top choice starts to back up on the far turn.
#4 Wood Bee Her best game stacks up well enough with these, but the recent route form isn't much to write home about, and I don't think she's going to be an appealing enough price tonight.
Race Summary Hard Chant will get bet with these, but she has sharp pace from the fence, and she might be able to put this race away into the lane by stretching these out in the early going. Front end single for me.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

The Meadows - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 AMELIA'S COURAGE Gamely stayed after short-priced faves on the class rise.
#1 CONTINUALOU Intent on lead, kept the 6-to-5 pocket sitter at bay.
#3 ZOE ELLASEN Steps up, seeking fourth consecutive win and 29th overall.
Race Summary Amelias Courage willingly pursued even-money winner Continualou and the 6-to-5 second choice while saving ground in third through a single-file alignment most of the way. She's worth the price to try and turn the tables on a pair of sharp favorites again. Play 5-1 and 5-3 exactas.

Saratoga Harness - Race #9
Picks Notes
#1 KASHA'S BOY Deceptively good try in latest, can score at a price with post switch.
#6 BATTLE QUEEN Beaten favorite when third in faster division of split race.
#5 HP DOUBLE EXPRESSO Takes class hike after back-to-back winning rallies.
Race Summary Kasha's Boy took back from post 7, broke the single-file setup in the third quarter, waited on cover to develop and finished a willing third in the same company. He can upgrade to a win while staring from the rail. Bet on him to win and place.

Monticello - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 IWILLMAKEYOUSAYWOW Worked hard up front, held second, moves inside out.
#2 MACHLICIOUS Re-claimed by 32 percent barn, going for sixth win in a row.
#3 SHARP RAZOR Advanced first over, third in blanket finish, driver's choice over Causway.
Race Summary Iwillmakeyousaywow burst between rivals to secure forward position early, dueled hard around the final turn and held gamely to finish second. He moves inside out but is versatile enough to change tactics, if necessary. Play a 2-3-7 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 Half Ours to Keep Was a good fourth in the Oklahoma Classics Turf last out and just missed in a Louisiana Downs main track allowance, running second behind Florida and New York winner Yodel E.A. Who. Has the speed and class to get the candy here.
#1 Crazy Legs Hirsch Has won three of six local starts and makes his first since a second at Lone Star; has an eye-catching late move when he's at his best.
#8 Riverboat Gambler Was up in time in a claiming race here last time and makes her first for the Black stable; gets leading rider Cabrera.
Race Summary Half Ours to Keep turns back to a sprint and switches over to the dirt for this; has the speed to be in the mix early and has can show his best when it counts the most.

Remington Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#2 Salt Creek Kid Overcame a brutal trip for a win at first asking, and most recently ran greenly against and closed strongly for second; waiting for him to do everything right, and when he does, it'll probably be impressive.
#10 Tap the Dot Held second in an allowance race last out and can battle for the lead from the beginning.
#1 Frigerator Turns back from a mile race in which he led in the stretch and tired to fourth late; big player in this one.
Race Summary Salt Creek Kid has had an exciting couple of races and has been green in each; he'll get a fast pace in front of him and can come rolling at 6.5 furlongs.

Remington Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#4 Close to Midnight Drops out of an allowance race in which he set the early lead and tired to sixth; had a more relaxed trip at this level two back and scored an easy win. Had won three of her last four entering her last one.
#1 Forestdungone Is in tremendous form with four wins in two seconds in his last six and has won 15 overall; lows the action on the front end and was second to Close to Midnight two back.
#5 Elitch Went favored vs. the top two last time but had a lackluster performance; was a sharp second two back and can be a factor if he can get to back to that.
Race Summary Close to Midnight got tired against in a stronger race last out and can get back to good running with this return to a more comfortable level.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE
Finger Lakes - Race 7

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 7-8) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 7-8-9)


Allowance • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $24,000 • Post: 3:12P
FOR FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A STATE BRED RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CLIFDEN PUNCH is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * U GUYS ARE NO FUN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GONE AND FORGOTTEN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in Tra ckMaster Power Rating.
5
U GUYS ARE NO FUN
6/5

3/1
7
GONE AND FORGOTTEN
9/5

9/2




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
CLIFDEN PUNCH
1

9/2
Front-runner
75

70

43.7

55.8

48.3
7
GONE AND FORGOTTEN
7

9/5
Stalker
77

80

76.8

76.8

70.8
5
U GUYS ARE NO FUN
5

6/5
Alternator/Stalker
78

90

63.8

80.4

77.9
4
LONG STORY SHORT
4

6/1
Alternator/Stalker
75

62

37.6

57.8

47.8
6
IMPRSSTHEPROFESSOR
6

10/1
Trailer
82

62

21.4

60.0

50.0
2
SHE'S A LUMBERJANE
2

8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
69

67

61.6

57.2

50.7
3
DANCING SLIPPERS
3

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
75

68

42.6

52.6

41.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Remington Park - Race #2 - Post: 2:58pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 COLONEL TOM (ML=9/2)
#5 HE'S A RANGER (ML=5/1)


COLONEL TOM - I am keen on that most recent effort on November 6th at Remington Park where he ended up third. I sense a pace scenario where the early speed will come back to the field, setting up a perfect situation for his late kick. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. This animal is number one in EPS (earnings per start). He looks solid in today's race. HE'S A RANGER - This rider and handler have a fantastic winning percent when they partner up.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ROYAL BERTRANDO (ML=6/5), #6 INTERNET EXPRESS (ML=6/1),

ROYAL BERTRANDO - This gelding hasn't been getting the job done as the favorite. You should normally bet against low-odds horses that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last three weeks. INTERNET EXPRESS - Looked like he was in good form on October 21st. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#8 COLONEL TOM is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 68

FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 MATTS FIRE N ICE 3/1

# 3 KISS AWAY 5/2

# 5 SMART ANALYSIS 9/2

I back MATTS FIRE N ICE here. He has earned competitive figures under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this group. The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a turn around for this gelding. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the most competitive class numbers of this group. KISS AWAY - Should come out sharp - I have liked the way this colt has moved quickly to the lead recently. Should best this group here, showing very good figures of late. SMART ANALYSIS - Has to be given consideration versus this group of animals displaying solid numbers lately and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 64 under similar conditions. This gelding could improve with second time Lasix.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Penn National - Race #8 - Post: 9:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,800 Class Rating: 75

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 SHE'S ACHANCE TOO (ML=5/1)
#2 BRITESIDEOFTHEROAD (ML=3/1)
#6 STORMY SPELL (ML=9/2)


SHE'S ACHANCE TOO - Mare took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Another way to identify class is earnings per race. This horse has the highest in the group. I think she'll be close at the finish. BRITESIDEOFTHEROAD - I am keen on that most recent race on November 9th at Penn National where she ended up second. This mare is obviously on the improve with speed figures of 65, 67, 72 last three out. STORMY SPELL - Have to give this filly a good shot. Ran a nice outing last time out within the last 30 days. This filly's last speed rating is high enough to win here, I'll play her right back this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MINER'S GEM (ML=8/5), #7 ALL ABOUT REYANA (ML=8/1),

MINER'S GEM - This filly raced very, very well on Nov 2nd finishing first, but hasn't even visited the track since then. Not really a good sign. ALL ABOUT REYANA - If you keep selecting these sort of 'hanger' types, you're going to be disillusioned regularly. Not probable that the rating she earned on October 29th will hold up in this event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #3 SHE'S ACHANCE TOO on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3] Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,3,6] with [2,3,6] with [1,2,3,4,6] with [1,2,3,4,6] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Allowance - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $32700 Class Rating: 68

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 RIDGE WEST 2/1

# 8 FLASHY KING GEORGE 15/1

# 2 LUCKY STREAK 8/5

RIDGE WEST has a competitive shot to take this race. Looks formidable for the conditions of this outing today, showing solid figures in dirt route races recently. Is hard not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been decent - 59 avg - of late. Morales has a solid 25 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. FLASHY KING GEORGE - His 55 average has this gelding with among the most favorable speed figures in here. Has been running solidly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. LUCKY STREAK - Put up a formidable Equibase Speed Figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. Don't overlook this gelding in your bets - very dangerous with Pilares aboard.