Sunday 11/28/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Stephen Nover

Nov 28 '21, 2:08 PM

NHL | Lightning vs Wild
Play on: UNDER 5½ -107

This one just feels like an Under. All the pieces are in place for that to happen.
Both teams are playing well. Tampa Bay is 6-1 in its last seven games. Minnesota is 8-4 in its last 12 games. So the defensive intensity should be there.
Each team is in excellent defensive form. The Lightning shut out their last two opponents, Seattle and Philadelphia. The Wild have allowed only three goals in their last two games.
The goalies are having excellent seasons. Adrei Vasilevskiy could be the best in the league. He has a .926 save percentage and 2.09 goals against average. Cam Talbot has a .913 save percentage and a 2.75 GAA.
It's an early start, too, another plus for the Under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Nov 28 '21, 4:05 PM

NFL | Chargers vs Broncos
Play on: Chargers -2½ -109 at pinnacle

My free play is on the LA Chargers at 4:05 ET.
The 6-4 LA Chargers are a half-game back of the 7-4 KC Chiefs in the AFC West. They are in Denver this Sunday to face the 5-5 Denver Broncos who are in last-place, a half-game back of the 6-5 Las Vegas Raiders, who won Thanksgiving Day at Dallas. Sunday's game will be the first time Denver head coach Vic Fangio will coach against his former assistant Brandon Staley. Fangio was the defensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears when he hired Staley to be his outside linebackers coach in 2017. They were together for three seasons, the last with Denver in 2019. Staley has led Los Angeles into playoff contention in his first year.Justin Herbert threw for a season-high 382 yards with three TDs and one INT in last Sunday night's 41-37 win over Pittsburgh. The Chargers led 27-10 into the 4th quarter but actually fell behind, before Herbert connected on a 53-yard TD pass with just over two minutes to go. RB Austin Ekeler ran for 50 yards (2 TDs) and caught six passes for 65 yards (2 TDs). He is the ONLY player in the AFC with 500 or more rushing yards (573) and 400-plus receiving yards (405). He has run for 7 TDs and caught 6 TD passes. Herbert has veteran WR Allen as a possession receiver (74 catches / 10.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and Williams (46 / 15.3 YPC / 7 TDs) as more of a big-play threat.
Denver opened the season 3-0, then lost FOUR straight, only to win back-to-back games before losing at home to the Eagles 30-13 last Sunday. I'm not sure Denver has finally found its next QB but Bridgewater is completing 69.2% for 2,389 yards with 14 TDs and just 5 INTs. The 14 TD passes is one shy of his career-high and he's thrown just one INT in his last four games (123 attempts). The RB duo of Gordon (522 yards / 4.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and rookie Williams (514 yards / 5.0 YPC / 1 TD) gives the offense some balance, while WRs Sutton (43 / 14.3 YPC / 3 TDs) and Patrick (37 / 14.1 YPC / 4 TDs) plus TE Fant (42 / 3 TDs) make up a decent receiving corp.
Here's the contrast in this game. The Chargers average 26.0 PPG but allow 26.5, while the Broncos average 20.0 PPG and allow just 18.3. Which team controls the flow and pace of this game? I say the Chargers, who have won FIVE consecutive AFC West games after dropping nine straight. Four of Herbert's 13, 300-yard passing games have come against AFC West teams and he has thrown for 17 TDs and without a SINGLE interception in his last six starts against a division opponent.
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks	Place A Bet
1.	NSA(The Legend)	NFL – Buccaneers -3	Line @ Bovada
2.	Gameday Network	NFL – Dolphins +1	Line @ Bovada
3.	Sports Action 365	NFL – 49ers under 49	Line @ BetAnySports
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	NFL – Ravens -3	Line @ GT Bets
5.	VegasSI.com	NFL – Chargers -3	Line @ Bovada
6.	PointSpreadReport.com(SAM CASEY)	NFL – Patriots -7.5	Line @ BetAnySports
7.	Winning Big Sports	NFL – Texans over 45	Line @ MyBookie
8.	NSA(Gerry “Big Cat” Andino)	NFL – Eagles -4	Line @ Bovada
9.	Lou Panelli	NFL – Dolphins over 41	Line @ BetAnySports
10.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	NFL – Packers +2.5	Line @ GT Bets
11.	William E. Stockton	NFL – Chargers under 47	Line @ MyBookie
12.	Vincent Pioli	NFL – Ravens -3	Line @ Bovada
13.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	NFL – Steelers +3.5	Line @ Bovada
14.	SCORE	NFL – Dolphins +1	Line @ GT Bets
15.	Tony Campone	NFL – Falcons -2	Line @ BetAnySports
16.	Chicago Sports Group	NFL – Texans -3	Line @ Bovada
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	NFL – Patriots over 43	Line @ Bovada
18.	VIP Action	NFL – Eagles -4	Line @ GT Bets
19.	South Beach Sports	NFL – Buccaneers -3	Line @ Bovada
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	NFL – Chargers -3	Line @ Bovada
21.	NY Players Club	NFL – Ravens under 47	Line @ BetAnySports
22.	Fred Callahan	NFL – Packers +2.5	Line @ Bovada
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	NFL – Falcons under 46	Line @ MyBookie
24.	Michigan Sports	NFL – Patriots -7.5	Line @ GT Bets
25.	National Consensus Report	NFL – 49ers under 49	Line @ Bovada

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays

Nov 28 '21, 4:25 PM

NFL | Rams vs Packers
Play on: UNDER 47 -110

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Rams vs Packers under 47 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Nov 28 '21, 4:25 PM

NFL | Vikings vs 49ers
Play on: Vikings +3½ -110 at SC Consensus

1* Free Pick on Vikings +3½ -110

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Jeff Alexander

Nov 28 '21, 4:25 PM

NFL | Rams vs Packers
Play on: Packers +1½ -105 at BetVegas

1* NFL - Rams/Packers FREE PICK on Packers +1.5
Sunday's Free NFL Pick is on the Green Bay Packers as a 1.5-point home dog against the Los Angeles Rams...more analysis to come!

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Black Widow

Nov 28 '21, 4:25 PM

NFL | Vikings vs 49ers
Play on: Vikings +3½ -110 at William Hill

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Vikings +3½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Nov 28 '21, 4:25 PM

NFL | Rams vs Packers
Play on: OVER 47 -101

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Rams/Packers OVER 47
This is a very low total between two of the best offenses in the NFL. It has been bet all the way down to 47, and I think it's time to pounce on the OVER. This has the makings of a shootout between Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford Sunday afternoon.
The Packers have scored at least 24 points in eight of the last nine games started by Rodgers. I think they at least get to that number against the Rams. He showed he could play through his nagging foot injury by leading the Packers to 31 points and 467 total yards against the Vikings last week.
The Rams are due for a breakout offensive performance after beating themselves in two straight lackluster efforts in upset losses to the Titans and 49ers. They had scored 26 or more points in seven of their first eight games to open the season, and I think they get to 26 here. They had their bye last week to correct their mistakes on offense, so look for Odell Beckham Jr. to have his coming out party this week against the Packers now that he'll be a lot more familiar with Sean McVay's system.
Plays on the OVER on any team where the total is 42.5 to 49 (LA Rams) - off a loss to a division opponent against a team that is off a road loss to a division opponent are 33-12 (73.3%) over the last 10 seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin

Nov 28 '21, 8:20 PM

NFL | Browns vs Ravens
Play on: Browns +3½ -105 at pinnacle

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Cleveland Browns +3.5
The Cleveland Browns are getting healthier while the Baltimore Ravens are banged up. Pernell McPhee is on IR, while Calais Campbell, Marquise Brown, Jimmy Smith and Brandon Williams are all questionable. The Ravens have struggled to put teams away due to their soft defense this year. They are only outscoring opponents by 1.7 points per game on the season despite their 7-3 record, which they are fortunate to have. I think there's value with the Browns catching 3.5 points against the Ravens due to all their injuries and soft defense. Cleveland has a stout defense that gives up just 316.7 yards per game and 5.5 yards per play, compared to 369.7 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play allowed by Baltimore. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last five games off a ATS win. Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me the Browns.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dennis Macklin

Nov 28 '21, 9:40 PM

NBA | Pistons vs Lakers
Play on: Pistons +10½ -110 at William Hill

DMACK'S FREE PLAY FOR SUNDAY, NOV 28, 2021 is on the Detroit Pistons
Both teams have been struggling for a variety of reasons but this just too many points to give to a Piston team that's going to be VERY salty after the Lebron/Isiah Stewart fiasco in the Motor City just seven days ago. Detroit had that game well in hand before the Lebron elbow. If you remember, the Pistons led by 15 entering the fourth quarter and were then iced by a Laker 37-17 finish in a 121-116 giveaway. Fully expecting a young talented Detroit outfit to bring its best here and if not win, stay well under this double-digit number.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12500 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 UPHAM 10/1
# 4 AZRAEL 9/2
# 1 GEMO RAIN 5/2

I've got to go with UPHAM and is a very good value-based bet given the 10/1 line. I like Rodriguez on this gelding to give him a very good chance to hit the wire first. AZRAEL - Hard to pass on this gelding with Baird in the irons. Has very good early lick and should fare strongly versus this group. GEMO RAIN - A solid 87 avg Equibase class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this group of horses. Is a solid contender - given the 81 speed fig from his most recent race.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Del Mar - Race #8 - Post: 4:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $36,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#4 FOWLER BLUE (ML=2/1)


FOWLER BLUE - This gelding faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. When Mendez gives Herrera a leg up on any horse, you got to know that with their win percentage you have decidedly more than a fighting chance. This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's clash is a shorter trip and should enhance his chances. Maiden is changing to the dirt, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to break maiden status. Lower weight assigned of -7. In my opinion, a movement of five is important, so this gelding falls into this category. Trainer Mendez moves this horse down in class to face a lower class of horses. Look for a strong race at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 HEAVEN'S MUSIC (ML=5/2), #8 INDIO MO MO (ML=5/1), #7 BLESSED BROTHER (ML=6/1),

HEAVEN'S MUSIC - The rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a questionable challenger. INDIO MO MO - The speed rating last out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this animal as a likely underlay. BLESSED BROTHER - Morning line odds of 6/1 make this horse a pass by my examination.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - FOWLER BLUE - Based on my calculations, has the speed to wire to wire this field. With a competent ride by Herrera, this one could win easily.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #4 FOWLER BLUE on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds

11/28/21, FG, Race 2, 1.36 CT
11/28/21,FG,2,7 1/2F [Turf About] 1:29:01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $18,000 (includes up to $4,000 Other Sources) (plus up to $3,000 ALBSS-Accredited LA Bred Slot Supplement). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000, if for $25,000, allowed 2 lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For Less Than $25,000 In Their Last 3 Starts). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile.) (Rail at 7 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Sweet Bay	8/1	Loveberry J	Faucheux Ron	JTSWL	62	29.03	1.73/$1
099.3264	7	Tappin'time(b-)	20/1	Vargas J P	Duhon Joe O.		63	28.57	1.57/$1
094.5605	6	Brina	2/1	Gutierrez R	Asmussen Steven M.		114	32.46	1.34/$1
093.1198	4	Face Card Contessa	5/2	Laviolette S	Hurley Tina Rena	E	67	26.87	1.46/$1
092.8818	2	Hot as Blue Blazes	4/1	Nieves E	Foster Joseph M.	C	114	32.46	1.34/$1
090.8245	3	Lets Go All Theway(b+)	9/2	Murrill M	Forster Grant T.		63	28.57	1.57/$1
087.6566	1	Livy B	8/1	Sanjur S	Leonard. III George		67	26.87	1.46/$1

Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 26.79, ROI 1.25/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.6736
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Turf] Last Race Weight Is Greater Than Today