Saturday 12/4/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Aqueduct (3rd) Fast Getaway, 10-1
(5th) Rosebug, 3-1

Charles Town (5th) Hardscratch, 9-2
(6th) Thorn of Rose Hill, 6-1

Delta Downs (1st) Perpetuate, 9-2
(6th) Cyber Sneaker, 6-1

Fair Grounds (7th) Hotmolly, 5-1
(8th) Brooke Marie, 4-1

Golden Gate Fields (7th) Of Good Report, 3-1
(9th) Amo’s Mane Man, 6-1

Gulfstream Park (8th) Tropicat, 10-1
(11th) Mandate, 8-1

Hawthorne (1st) Cookin Roses, 7-2
(4th) Blooming Garden, 9-2

Los Alamitos (3rd) Vittorio, 3-1
(4th) Saturday Heist, 4-1

Mahoning Valley (4th) All American Jewel, 7-2
(7th) High Risk Strategy, 4-1

Oaklawn Park (1st) My Coalena, 6-1
(9th) Mariah’s Princess, 8-1

Remington Park (2nd) Off Track, 4-1
(7th) Digital, 9-2

Tampa Bay Downs (4th) Mia Rose, 7-2
(6th) October Time, 4-1

Turfway Park (5th) Bullseye Beauty, 7-2
(8th) Steinbeck, 7-2

Woodbine (3rd) Maakwa, 4-1
(7th) Beat the System, 10-1

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The Greg Peterson Experience

Greg Peterson (CFB)

Cincinnati -10 vs Houston

Iowa +11 vs Michigan

App State -2.5 vs Louisiana

Alabama +6.5 vs Georgia

Alabama vs Georgia Under 49.5

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Laurel Park 5 Facts | November 30-December 5, 2021
November 30, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$3,776 // Rainbow 6 Friday

Feature Race(s):

$100,000 Maryland Juvenile // 2-year-old sprinters // Saturday

$100,000 Maryland Juvenile Fillies // 2-year-old filly sprinters // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Avg. Speed (35%, +$8.60)

Lifetime Earnings (31%, +$23.20)

Best Speed Last 3 (27% -$13.00)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Claudio Gonzalez // last week 19: 4-4-3 (21%, $0.88 ROI) // 2-4 with favorites, added $19 score

T: Dale Capuano // last week 7: 2-2-0 (29%, $1.27 ROI) // $5, $12 scores // 6-14 last 2 weeks, 4-9 with Jorge Ruiz

T: Jose Corarles // last week 6: 2-0-1 (33%, $2.27 ROI) // $6, $20 winners plus 10-1 in the money // both wins 7 furlongs on dirt

J: Jevian Toledo // last week 18: 6-2-2 (33%, $1.23 ROI) // 2-2 with Anthony Farrior // 4-5 on favorites

J: Jean Alvelo // last week 9: 3-2-1 (33%, $1.58 ROI) // $3, $15, $19 scores (2-2 with favorites)

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Gate Fields 5 Facts | November 30-December 5, 2
November 30, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$16,928 // Rainbow 6 Friday

$11,583 // Super High 5 Friday

Feature Race(s):

$75,000 Gold Rush // 2-year-old milers // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Trainer 2 Year Race Type (32%, +$59.20)

Trainer Meet (27%, -$16.20)

Last Turn Time (24%, +$72.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Jonathan Wong // last week 24: 6-5-2 (25%, $1.53 ROI) // 9: 3-2-1 with favorites but added $12, $13, $34 winners

T: Reid France // last week 6: 4-0-1 (67%, $1.77 ROI) // 3-4 with favorites // 3-3 with jockey Armando Ayuso

T: Andy Mathis // last week 3: 2-0-0 (67%, $2.77 ROI) // all in claiming races // 2-2 with jockey Ruben Fuentes

J: Irving Orozco // last week 22: 4-1-3 (18%, $2.18 ROI) // $5, $12, $18, $62 winners // 3 wins in Tapeta sprints

J: Assael Espinoza // last week 8: 4-0-0 (50%, $8.00 ROI) // $6, $22, $37, $62 winners for 4 different barns

J: Catalino Martinez // last week 14: 4-3-0 (29%, $1.28 ROI) // $4, $6, $10, $14 scores // 9-23 last 2 weeks

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AI Picks: National Stakes | Saturday, Dec. 4, 2021

December 3, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

This Saturday’s national stakes lineup features Claiming Crown Day at Gulfstream Park and the Grade 1 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct. To assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

Gulfstream Park // Race 5 // 1:55 pm ET // $75,000 Claiming Crown Express // 6 furlongs

#5 Kalu (6-5) // 31%W
#3 Hero Tiger (6-1) // 22%W
#4 Handsome Prince (30-1) // 11%W
#1 Face of Victory (4-1) // 11%W

//

Gulfstream Park // Race 9 // 3:59 pm ET // $85,000 Claiming Crown Rapid Transit // 7 furlongs

#6 Star Sign (10-1) // 30%W
#8 Miles Ahead (3-1) // 13%W
#9 Well Defined (8-1) // 11%W
#5 Pudding (7-2) // 11%W

//

Aqueduct // Race 10 // 4:13 pm ET // $750,000 Grade 1 Cigar Mile // 1 mile

#3 Americanrevolution (5-2) // 31%W
#4 Code of Honor (6-1) // 16%W
#2 Plainsman (12-1) // 14%W
#5 Independence Hall (7-2) // 14%W

//

Gulfstream Park // Race 10 // 4:32 pm ET // $125,000 Claiming Crown Jewel // 1-1/8 miles

#3 Girolamo’s Attack (5-2) // 25%W
#6 Strike Appeal (5-1) // 22%W
#7 Twelve Volt Man (10-1) // 12%W
#5 Glory of Florida (8-1) // 11%W

//

Golden Gate Fields // Race 8 // 7:15 pm ET // $75,000 Gold Rush Stakes // 1 mile

#2 Boise (2-1) // 23%W
#1 Degree of Risk (9-5) // 15%W
#4 C’Mon Man (8-1) // 12%W
#7 Stanford Bay (12-1) // 12%W

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: Claiming Crown Jewel at Gulfstream | Saturday

December 2, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

$125,000 CLAIMING CROWN JEWEL AT GULFSTREAM PARK
Saturday, December 4, 2021

The Lead:
Gulfstream Park's opening weekend of the Championship Meet features Saturday's Claiming Crown series of stakes. The big-money bonanza for blue-collar horses culminates with the $125,000 Claiming Crown Jewel in Race 10, feature race among the 9 stakes events.

Horseplayers on the Xpressbet and 1/ST BET platforms can take part in Saturday's Gulfstream Park late pick 4 hit-and-split promotion. Win your late pick 4 bet and split $2000 in additional cash with other horseplayers on the platform who found success. Extra winnings? Yes please.

Field Depth:
The Jewel is restricted to horses who have started for $35,000 claiming or less at least once in 2020-'21. Similar to a starter allowance, you're measuring class by horses who look least like a $35,000 claimer or less -- in that they've appeared at that level or less the fewest amount of races. Runners like GIROLAMO'S ATTACK, GLORY OF FLORIDA, TWELVE VOLT MAN and HANALEI's HOUDINI have kept the strongest company lines.

Pace:
At 1-1/8 miles, this is a tough distance for many of these who've plied their trade primarily at shorter trips (field is 0-3 combined at 9 furlongs). LUDINGTON should show speed from the rail stretching out from 1-turn affairs. Same goes for GIRALAMO'S ATTACK and TUNE IN with inner draws. More speed should come from STRIKE APPEAL and wide-drawn MO HAWK. This looks like a very lively pace for the distance; horses from off the pace should have a solid chance to finish late.

Our Eyes:
Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has the uncoupled pair of GIROLAMO'S ATTACK and TWELVE VOLT MAN, both of which fit the conditions of this race smartly. Pedigree-wise, GIROLAMO'S ATTACK should handle the additional distance, but he'll be part of the expected fast pace. He picks up 5 and 6 pounds off his last 2 wins going shorter, adding to the difficult in another score. Sophomore TWELVE VOLT MAN didn't really get his sea legs under him on the Tapeta last time, but that fourth-place effort did at least give him a chance to see if he will handle 2 turns. The 6-pound weight break for the sophomore could come in handy over 9 furlongs. I prefer him of the Joseph duo at what's expected to be a more attractive price.

TUNE IN and LUDINGTON exit a 1-2 finish in a mile starter allowance that shook out like a carousel where no horses changed positions. The opening quarter was slow that day and figures to be more taxing this time. Their similar styles and resumes should cancel one another out with the expected fast pace and additional distance. I'll look elsewhere.

The out of town shippers include STRIKE APPEAL seeking his ninth win of 2021 via Ohio as well as HANALEI'S HOUDINI from Kentucky. The latter Mike Maker trainee did most of his work in Maryland prior to a series of claims and now shows up for the first time for a barn that's often potent with these kind of claimers. The wide post draw is a concern for the stalker HANALEI'S HOUDINI, unlikely to drop back early while ridden by the hustling Paco Lopez. With much speed to his inside, a wide trip feels likely for HANALEI'S HOUDINI. I'll lean amongst the shippers to STRIKE APPEAL, seasoned around 2 turns with very solid BRIS late pace figures going a mile, suggesting the trip should be within reason.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
The distance and pace scenario make it tough to call any of these 'certain,' but the preferred lean goes to TWELVE VOLT MAN.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
GLORY OF FLORIDA finished strongly behind GIROLAMO'S ATTACK last time going a mile at 20-1 odds. The public likely won't jump in too deeply here and the additional trip doesn't appear to be beyond his scope.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win TWELVE VOLT MAN. $10 exacta key-box TWELVE VOLT MAN with GIROLAMO'S ATTACK and GLORY OF FLORIDA.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday Gulfstream Pick 4 Analysis & Selections

December 3, 2021 | By Johnny D


Gulfstream Park’s 2021-22 Championship meeting is off and running and Saturday’s Claiming Crown card is a challenging way to begin the season.

Let’s amend that…Saturday’s Claiming Crown card is an extremely challenging way to begin the season.

Besides paying homage (and rich purses) to horses that often race with luggage pre-packed like one-on-one Bachelor date hopefuls possibly headed elsewhere, Claiming Crown also delivers the ultimate handicapping challenge to horseplayers of all ages.

Entrants from around the nation, once again, descend on Gulfstream for Saturday’s tests and they bring along an assortment of trainers, jockeys, class levels, surface experiences and more. Go ahead and attempt to figure out how they’re likely to run; it’ll give you a headache. So, why even bother? That’s easy. Because, if you happen to put the right numbers in the correct places, you’re going to win a basketful of bread.

Add to your bounty this Saturday and each subsequent Saturday and Sunday through December 26 by registering free for the Gulfstream $2,000 Late Pick 4 Split promotion. It’s your chance to submit a winning Late Pick 4 and to collect a share of $2,000 in bonus bread. If you’re going to play the wager anyway, it’s a free swing at some extra bread. When you hit the wager, think of the bonus as a congratulatory kiss.

Sometimes, short-priced favorites dominate Claiming Crown proceedings, temporarily giving way to a bomb or two along the way. This humble horseplayer doesn’t see the same happening this Claiming Crown edition. Many of these races, especially those in the Late Pick 4, 5 and 6 are scrambles where no fewer than five, six or even seven different runners can be supported.

Roll up the sleeves, dig in and enjoy the beginning of the Gulfstream season. By the time we’re finished in South Florida, chances are that we’ll have identified several Kentucky Derby contenders, turf, dirt and synthetic older stars and, if you’re fortunate enough to make it on-track a few times, a suntan.

Race 8
Claiming Crown Canterbury Tom Metzen Memorial Stakes $90k
Three Year Olds & Upward
$25k Starter or Less
Five Furlongs (Turf)

#1 Tropicat has been gone since September off a pace-pressing fourth at this level. This gelding seems best a bit below this level and is just 2 for 10 at the distance.

#2 Bad Beat Brian has been second in his last two races and has won 3 of 6 over the GP layout. The 4-year-old comes from off the pace and this five-furlong distance seems a bit short for his best. Still, he’s in good form, has a capable rider and trainer.

#3 Harry’s Ontheloose won at this level, distance and course two back. That was over a ‘good’ lawn. That was his second consecutive win. Last out he was third over the synthetic, a good effort. He’s in form at age 5 and figures to be close to the early pace.

#4 The Connector changes hands from Mark Hoffman to Darlene Rodriguez and shifts from the northeast to Florida. The 4-year-old gelding will need to improve.

#5 Henry’s World is a forward-moving type who needs to move again a bit to win. He’s a 4-year-old gelding with outstanding credentials, speed and a powerful jockey-trainer combo. Trainer Zerpa and jockey Zayas win at 22%. Gelding boasts 3 for 12 at GP and 5 for 16 at distance.

#6 Mystery Messenger needs a bit more to compete in here. The 5-year-old gelding ships in from extended appearances in SoCal and the Big Apple. Popular at the claim box 3 of last 4 starts, this one will need a hot pace to get home at five furlongs.

#7 Belgrano is a 7-year-old with some meat on his bones. He’s won his last 3 starts and has posted fast Thoro-Graph speed figures. One hurdle for him is the GP lawn where he’s only 2 for 16. He’s 4 for 7 at the distance. He invades from Laurel and Monmouth where he posted most recent successes. Still, that weak GP turf record is difficult to take at a short price.

#8 Forest Survivor has speed and is effective at the distance with 2 out of 3 wins. He’s a new face arriving from Woodbine where he won a restricted $80k five-furlong turf race. His new local trainer is 0-10 but hasn’t had him very long. He’s not fast enough on Thoro-Graph figs.

#9 Xy Speed won 2 of his last 3 and 4 of his last 5. He’s 2 for 2 at GP and 7 for 9 at the distance. His most recent triumph came in the $100k Laurel Dash at five and one-half furlongs on grass. He’s probably been aimed for this race and trainer Bennett and jockey Lopez are 20% together.
The 5-year-old gelding has won on and from just off the early pace. 5-1 seems a generous number.

#10 Discreet Tune is not fast enough according to Thoro-Graph speed figs. He’s a 4-year-old colt with some speed, solid connections, a 3-10 mark at GP and a 3-10 record at the distance. Conflicting info at a 15-1 price. You make the call.

#11 Admiral Abe has speed but is 0-6 on turf. That’s notable because he’s 10 for 28 overall. So, what we have is a solid 5-year-old with speed who’s a terror on dirt and not so tough on grass. He’s based a Parx and has faced some tough foes and played fiercely—he was third in the Gr. 3 Turf Monster two back. Still, it’s clear he’s better on dirt than turf.

#12 Dr. Shane seems overmatched in here.

Top Pick: #9
Threats: #3, #5, #7

Also Eligible:
#13 Gran Malbec needs to draw into the race and do better.

Race 9
Claiming Crown Rapid Transit Stakes $85k
Three Year Olds & Upward
$16k Starter or Less
Seven Furlongs

#1 I’m a G Six was more than 3 lengths behind #11 Legal Deal last out going this distance. This 5-year-old gelding moves to the rail for the return engagement. Just 1 for 8 at GP and 1 for 7 at the distance, this runner will need to do better than he has recently.

#2 Fortunate Friends comes in needing best off some solid sprints last season. Pass in here.

#3 Financial System has fired some notable shots recently, winning by more than 6 lengths and then losing by a neck going one mile. He’s 2 for 3 at GP and 2 for 2 at the distance. Trainer Joseph and jockey Zayas are a strong 31%. Difficult to ignore this one’s credentials.

#4 Motaabeq is not fast enough to win this.

#5 Pudding is a pretty consistent type—3 for 7 at GP and 4 for 6 at the distance. A :59 3/5 bullet best of 32 at Palm Meadows says ‘ready to fight.’ Trainer Doubles and jockey Reyes are an amazing 30% together.

#6 Star Sign exploded with a strong effort last out at Parx. A repeat of that wins this. Can the 5-year-old move his game south? It’s notable that the recent neck loss strong effort came around two turns going one mile and seventy yards. The 5-year-old gelding is 2 for 2 at the distance. Trainer Mosco and jockey Gonzalez are a strong 30%.

#7 Blessed Journey seems a bit overmatched in here off a lowly rated third last out. He’s 3 for 6 at the distance but needs to pick up his game a bit in here.

#8 Miles Ahead has fired some fast races this year that would make him tough in here. He’s been off since September, so he’s got to fire fresh for trainer Plesa and jockey Lopez. This guy won the Gr. 3 Smile Sprint at Gulfstream and was nowhere in the Gr. 1 Vanderbilt at Saratoga. The 4-year-old gelding finished seventh in this race last year.

#9 Well Defined has a pair of efforts this season that would win this race. The 5-year-old gelding has won 5 of 10 starts this season, is 7 for 18 at GP and is 4 for 9 at the distance. He’s a speedy type looking to go wire to wire. #3 Financial System and #11 Legal Deal figure to add heat to the early mix.

#10 Lookin At Roses comes to the end of a busy year. Like many of these hard-knocking claimers, the 5-year-old gelding can be counted on to give his best. He’s won 4 of 10 starts this season—from seven furlongs to one mile and one-half! Won’t see that very often. He’s not quite as strong at GP—just 1 for 4—and 1 for 3 at the distance, including a win last out in a starter $16 at Laurel. He was a closing third in this race at 47-1 last year.

#11 Legal Deal just won clear going seven furlongs at GP to bring his local mark to 6 for 12 and 1 for 3 at the distance. This 4-year-old gelding has a great outside post for the trainer/jockey combo of David/Gonzalez (17%) and appears to have more improvement in him.

Nod in a Toughie: #11
Next in Line: #3, #5, #9

Race 10
Claiming Crown Jewel $125k
Three Year Olds & Upward
$35k or Less Starter
One Mile & One-Eighth

#1 Ludington has speed and an inside post. He loves GP with 4 wins in 8 starts. He’s never tried one mile and one-eighth and he’s in familiar company because none of these have won at the distance and only 2 have even tried it. The 5-year-old gelding should have company early and he’ll need to step up his game to get the job done.

#2 Hard Lightning needs to do better to threaten in here.

#3 Girolamo’s Attack has speed and comes in off a pair of big efforts. The 4-year-old gelding has won 4 of 8 at GP and tries this distance for the first time. He returns relatively quickly (2 weeks) for 23% trainer Joseph and jockey Zayas—30% together. This guy will take money and there are reasons to go against him.

#4 Tune In has won 2 of his last 3 and defeated #1 Ludington last out. The 5-year-old gelding has a pair of early ’21 races that would win this. Negative is that he’s part of what seems like could be a contentious early pace. Like others, he loves GP with 5 wins out of 8 tries. This will be the first try at the distance.

#5 Glory of Florida just missed against probable strong favorite #3 Girolamo’s Attack. The 5-year-old horse is pretty steady, and his closing style works in here. He’s never tried the distance. On the downside, he has more seconds (5) than firsts (2) this year, but he’s a good bet to be closing late.

#6 Strike Appeal is an interesting invader from Thistledown where he won 5 of his last 6. The 4-year-old gelding has won 10 of 22 overall but these foes ought to be tougher than what he usually faces. He can be found just off the early pace and that might be an OK place to be. This guy’s a great example of why picking winners out of Claiming Crown races is such a challenge!

#7 Twelve Volt Man won the first 2 starts of his career and then was well-beaten in a stakes race. After a short rest, he came back strong to win an optional claimer that made him eligible for this race. He’s only 3 and really hasn’t been fast enough, but he starts for the Joseph/Gonzalez combo that hits at 25%. Like many in here, he loves GP with 3 wins in 5 starts.

#8 Braccio Di Ferro hasn’t been fast enough to threaten these, but he’s a 3-year-old and moving forward. Expect to see him running late. Can you say ‘Atomic Bomb?’ He’s 30-1 on the line and would need to do much better than he ever has. He’s sharp—won last out by more than three lengths and that kind can be dangerous if the rest of the field falters.

#9 Mo Hawk adds speed to the race and will need to go much faster than he has before.

#10 Hanalei’s Houdini has been claimed in 3 of his last 4 races, most recently by Mike Maker, a veteran Claiming Crown-race winning trainer. This 5-year-old gelding races from off the pace and that’s a good thing. He will need to run one of his better races to threaten and he’s just 1 for 12 this season. He does have 3 runner-up finishes in that mix. The post is no help.

Best and a Bomb in a Mess: #5, #8
Best: #1, #4
Against Favored: #3

Race 11
Claiming Crown Emerald Stakes $95k
Three Year Olds & Upward
$25k Starter or Less
One Mile & One-Eighth (Turf)

#1 Mid Day Image has speed, the inside post, a 3 for 4 record at GP and a 2 for 2 mark at the distance. Jockey Lopez rides for low-profile connections. Needs very best but not impossible.

#2 The Last Zip is one of 2 runners in here trained by Mike Maker. This 5-year-old has won just 4 of 25 with 7 seconds and 3 thirds. He defeated #4 Clear Vision three back and adds depth to an already challenging race. Next door and stable neighbor #3 Attentive offers a better price and maybe a better chance.

#3 Attentive is the ‘other’ Mike Maker runner in here and he’s a 5-year-old horse who’s been claimed from 4 out of his last 5 starts. Maker, who excels at claiming runners with the specific purpose of running them in Claiming Crown races, claimed this one back last out—a solid third place effort behind Carom at Belmont. Attentive runs from off the pace and there seems to be plenty of early speed signed on in here, including barnmate #2 The Last Zip. Two nice post-claim half-mile moves add intrigue to the mix, as does the 8-1 morning line.

#4 Clear Vision comes off of two strong wire-to-wire wins at Saratoga and Belmont for $25k. The 5-year-old gelding was claimed out of his last and starts for low profile connections in Mathew O’Conner. Doubt he’ll get to ‘walk the dog’ on the lead in here like he did in those last two. He has run well from off the pace before but is 0 for 3 over the GP turf.

#5 Mandate is a juicy 8-1 shot off a pair of big wins—the latter an Artie Schiller stakes win at nearly 45-1! A repeat of that will get the job done. Both recent triumphs came from off the pace and they weren’t phony setups either. Based on recent races, this guy’s a ‘single.’ Those digging deeper will find several losses to common foes in this race. Did Mandate just blossom into a star and can he repeat either of his last two efforts? Or, did he just fire a pair of bombs that will knock him out completely? He’s just 2-12 at the distance and 1 for 3 over GP turf.

#6 Louder Than Bombs is pretty loud. This guy won his last two starts—one on turf and most recent on synthetic. He was best last season when close in some Gulfstream stakes, including the Gr. 3 Canadian Turf. He races from off the pace and that’s a help.

#7 Kitten’s Spa has found dirt to be his best surface so far.

#8 Max K. O. is an honest 5-year-old who lost a close decision to #6 Louder Than Bombs last out over synthetic. A return to turf should help this honest runner who’s 4 for 10 at the distance. Trainer Joseph and jockey Zayas are 30%. The morning line number of 3-1 should go much lower by post time.

#9 Surf and Turf seems overmatched.

#10 Benelux has done his best work at Arlington Park and will need to transfer that form to Gulfstream turf and up his game a bit. He has a nice stalking style and is 2 for 7 at the distance.

#11 Light Fury comes off two synthetic tries and is 5 for 10 on the GP turf. The 4-year-old gelding is 2 for 3 at the distance. He’s got pace and will be asked to use it from this outside post position. He should have company up front. He’d be a more attractive proposition from an inside post but he is improving and 12-1 odds could increase by post time. Exotics thought?

#12 Go Mike is the lone 3-year-old in the field and likes to be ridden from well off the pace. He seems in deep.

Also Eligible:
#13 Call Curt is a longshot to threaten in here if he draws into the race.

#14 Vow Me Now will add to the early pace in the race if he draws in. He’s won 7 of 12 GP starts and that’s got to be considered. He’s won 1 of 2 at the distance, too. Still, an outside post at GP on turf going one mile and one-sixteenth is a considerable challenge.

Best Last Race at a Big Price: #5
Others to Consider: #3, #8

$.50 Late Pick 4 ($24)
Race 8: #2, #5, #7, #9
Race 9: #11
Race 10: #1, #4, #5, #8
Race 11: #3, #5, #8

Race On!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jon White: Cigar Mile Selections

December 1, 2021 | By Jon White

In what will be the final big day of racing in New York this year, Aqueduct presents a 10-race card this Saturday topped by the Grade I Cigar Mile.

The $750,000 Cigar Mile is named in honor of the 1995-96 Horse of the Year and 2002 Hall of Fame inductee. This year’s renewal has attracted a field of eight.

The Cigar Mile is a handicap, a type of race that has become a racing rarity these days.

Of the 22 nominees, Happy Saver was assigned top weight of 124 pounds. But he was not entered. Happy Saver carried 121 pounds and, in a splendid try, finished second in last Friday’s Grade I, $750,000 Clark Stakes at Churchill Downs. Off at odds of 12-1, Happy Saver lost by only a half-length to Maxfield, who was appearing under silks for the final time before heading off to a new career as a sire.

Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher trains Happy Saver. Pletcher told me that the Grade I winner will continue racing in 2022.

Aloha West was handed 123 pounds for the Cigar Mile. The 4-year-old Maryland-bred Hard Spun colt won the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Del Mar on Nov. 6 for owner Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and trainer Wayne Catalano.

On Nov. 24, Aloha West worked four furlongs in :49.40 at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. However, Aloha West, like Happy Saver, was not entered in the Cigar Mile. Aloha West will focus instead on a 2022 campaign, BloodHorse’s Bob Ehalt reported.

Eclipse president and founder Aron Wellman said that he is not interested in shipping and running Aloha West so soon after his Breeders’ Cup victory, according to Ehalt.

“The horse always comes first and we don’t want to ask too much of him,” Wellman said. “We don’t want to compromise what we anticipate being a huge season in 2022 by traveling and running again in such close proximity. We have no plans at this time other to hopefully work our way backwards from next year’s Breeders’ Cup.”

Ginobili is being sent to New York from Southern California to accept the 122 pounds he is being asked to carry in the Cigar Mile.

Below are my Cigar Mile selections:

1. Independence Hall
2. Ginobili
3. Americanrevolution
4. Following Sea

To be perfectly frank, I have never been an Independence Hall fan. He generated much hype after recording a 101 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the Grade III Nashua Stakes by 12 1/4 lengths as a 2-year-old at Aqueduct in 2019.

Ever since the Nashua, I have always looked at Independence Hall as being overrated. I’d say that the record indicates I was correct to have that view of him in that he’s lost eight of 11 starts since the Nashua.

But a primary reason Independence Hall is my top selection in the Cigar Mile is it appears to me that trainer Michael McCarthy has him primed for a big performance that could land him in the winner’s circle.

I am not going to hold Independence Hall’s defeat in Del Mar’s Grade I Pacific Classic on Aug. 21 against him. It was asking a lot of him to run in that 1 1/4-mile affair when he had not raced since April 17. Independence Hall finished fifth at odds of 11-1 and logged a 95 Beyer Speed Figure.

In his next start, Independence Hall encountered an equine buzzsaw in the form of Knicks Go in the Grade III Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs on Oct. 2. A two-turn win machine, Knicks Go won that 1 1/8-mile race by four lengths. Independence Hall finished second and came away with a 98 Beyer, an improvement off his 95 in the Pacific Classic.

After the Lukas Classic, Independence Hall ran what I believe might well have been the best race of his career to date. Competing on a sloppy track, the 4-year-old Kentucky-bred Constitution colt splashed his way to a 2 1/4-length win in Keeneland’s Grade II Fayette Stakes on Oct. 30. He recorded a robust 105 Beyer Speed Figure.

And so Independence Hall heads into the Cigar Mile off a career-best Beyer. Perhaps his impressive Fayette victory was fueled by the sloppy strip. After all, that made him three for three on wet tracks.

But I also think there is a chance that Independence Hall is just really on his game right now. McCarthy is demonstrating time and again that he is adept at having a horse ready for a peak effort in an important event. A recent example of this was how McCarthy had Ce Ce so finely tuned to run a winning race in the Grade I BC Filly & Mare Sprint at Del Mar on Nov. 6.

This will be Independence Hall’s final start before he goes to stud.

I very nearly made Ginobili my top pick in the Cigar Mile. I may regret not doing that.

Trained by Richard Baltas, Ginobili won only one of his first 11 career starts, all without blinkers. His top Beyer during that time was a 90.

Since having blinkers added to his equipment, Ginobili has improved significantly.

In his first race with blinkers, Ginobili won a Del Mar allowance/optional claiming race by 9 3/4 lengths at one mile on July 27. The Kentucky-bred Munnings colt registered a 104 Beyer Speed Figure.

Proving the 104 was not a fluke, Ginobili recorded a 102 Beyer when he moved up substantially in class and won Del Mar’s Grade II Pat O’Brien Stakes with blinkers at seven furlongs on Aug. 28.

After the Grade II victory, Ginobili wore blinkers again when he started in the Grade I BC Dirt Mile at Del Mar on Nov. 6. Life Is Good won with authority by 5 3/4 lengths. Many felt that win by Life Is Good was the best performance in any of this year’s 14 Breeders’ Cup races. Ginobili actually did well to finish second behind such a beast.

I also gave serious consideration to making Americanrevolution my top pick in the Cigar Mile. I certainly will not be surprised if he wins.

Americanrevolution, trained by Pletcher, has won four of five starts this year. The Constitution colt is coming off a scintillating 11 3/4-length win against New York-breds in the 1 1/8-mile Empire Classic Handicap, which was contested on a sloppy track Oct. 30 at Belmont Park.

In his lone defeat this year, Americanrevolution finished third in the Grade I Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing on Sept. 25. He faced a couple of tough foes on that occasion in the victorious Hot Rod Charlie and runner-up Midnight Bourbon.

Hot Rod Charlie ran fourth in the subsequent Grade I BC Classic. Midnight Bourbon went on to finish third as the 6-5 favorite in last Friday’s Clark.

I was sky high on Following Sea earlier this year. In fact, he was my top pick in Monmouth Park’s Grade I Haskell Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on July 17. But Following Sea let me down that day by finishing a well-beaten third.

Following Sea went back to sprinting after the Haskell. He finished third to Jackie’s Warrior and Life Is Good in Saratoga’s Grade I H. Allen Jerkens Memorial at seven furlongs on Aug. 28, then cruised to a 4 3/4-length win vs. his elders in the Grade II Vosburgh Stakes at Belmont on Oct. 9.

After the Vosburgh, Following Sea had a troubled trip in the Grade I BC Sprint when he was steadied at the top of the lane. Would Following Sea have won that race without the trouble? Maybe. At the very least, I think he would have ended up closer to one-two finishers Aloha West and Dr. Schivel.

A reason that I’m rather reluctant to pick Following Sea to win the Cigar is I’m still stinging a bit from how he ran when asked to race farther than seven furlongs in the Haskell. But in fairness to him, the one-turn one-mile Cigar Mile might well be a better fit for him than the two-turn 1 1/8-mile Haskell. Also, Following Sea just might be a better, more mature racehorse now than he was in July.

If you are a horseplayer, you know full well how it often goes. When I loved Following Sea in the Haskell, he finished a bad third. Now, when I am trying to beat Following Sea, he’s eligible to go out there and drill them in the Cigar Mile while figuratively thumbing his nose at me.

“ALL OTHER MALES” ODDS-ON IN FUTURE WAGER

Not surprisingly, the “All Other 3-Year-Old Colts and Geldings” option closed as an overwhelming favorite last Sunday in Pool 1 of the 2022 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) conducted by Churchill Downs.

“All Other 3-Year-Old Colts & Geldings” was reported by Churchill to have “closed as the 3-5 favorite.” More specifically, this option closed as the 7-10 favorite, meaning that you would win $70 for a $100 wager.

In addition to the “All Other 3-Year-Old Colts and Geldings” option, the “Any 3-Year-Old Filly” option closed at 41-1.

Those who bet the “All Other 3-Year-Old Colts and Geldings” option in Pool 1 of the 2021 KDFW at odds of 6-5 cashed when Medina Spirit finished first in the Kentucky Derby. Media Spirit was 12-1 on race day.

As for the 22 individual horses in Pool 1 of the 2022 KDFW, Smile Happy was 20-1 last Saturday prior to winning the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes by 3 1/4 lengths later in the day to remain undefeated in two starts. Smile Happy then was 15-1 last Sunday afternoon before Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale plunked $10,000 on him.

Following McIngvale’s wager, Smile Happy’s odds plummeted and the colt closed as the 8-1 favorite among individual horses.

McIngvale raced Smile Happy’s sire, the 2015 Eclipse Award-winning male sprinter Runhappy. As Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee noted, McIngvale “is widely known in the racing industry as a tireless promoter of Runhappy” as a sire.

Kenny McPeek trains Smile Happy. McPeek also conditions Tiz the Bomb and Rattle N Roll.

Tiz the Bomb, runner-up in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, was scratched from the Kentucky Jockey Club due to an infection in his left foreleg. The Kentucky-bred Hit It a Bomb colt closed at 24-1 in Pool 1 of the KDFW.

Rattle N Roll won Keeneland’s Grade I Breeders’ Futurity by 4 1/4 lengths on Oct. 9, but then missed the BC Juvenile due to a hind foot setback. The Kentucky-bred Connect colt is to resume training within the next couple of weeks, according to McPeek. Rattle N Roll closed at 21-1 in Pool 1 of the KDFW.

Meanwhile, before wagering in the KDFW began last week, a Churchill Downs news release stated that “Pool 1 assumes the horses under the care of trainers suspended from competing in the 2022 Kentucky Derby will not be under consideration. To that end, prospects Corniche, Messier, Pinehurst and Rockefeller are not among the 22 individual betting interests and are included in the pari-mutuel field” also known as the “All Other 3-Year-Old Colts & Geldings” option.

Corniche, a $1.5 million auction purchase, is three for three. Hall of Famer Bob Baffert trains the BC Juvenile winner and odds-on favorite to be voted an Eclipse Award as 2-year-old male champion. Baffert also trains Messier, Pinehurst and Rockefeller.

Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman reported Monday that Corniche has been sent to WinStar Farm in Kentucky for a brief freshening, but the plan is for him to return to trainer Bob Baffert, according to Marette Farrell, who purchased the colt for owners Speedway Stable.

Corniche was sent to Kentucky on Nov. 24. After his time at WinStar, Farrell said he will return to Baffert’s barn at Santa Anita.

“Baffert is barred from Churchill Downs, including the next two Kentucky Derbies,” Privman wrote. “If Corniche is to be pointed to the May 7 Derby, and if there is no change in Baffert’s status with Churchill Downs, Corniche will have to be moved to another trainer in order to accumulate qualifying points to earn a berth in the field. No points were awarded to Corniche for his wins in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile or American Pharoah owing to Baffert’s status.”

Speedway Stables is owned by Houston residents Peter Fluor and K.C. Weiner.

“Peter wants to be loyal,” Farrell said in an obvious reference to Baffert. “Corniche won the Breeders’ Cup, and he’s a possible 2-year-old champion. No decisions have been made -- there hasn’t even been any talk about another trainer, or who he’d go to if he needs to go to another trainer. If the time comes that a decision needs to be made, if it needs to be made that way, we’ll put our heads together and make a decision.”

As of Monday, Corniche was listed as the 6-1 favorite for the 2022 Kentucky Derby by Caesars Sportsbook at William Hill Nevada. Messier was 16-1. Jack Christopher and Smile Happy were each 20-1.

Jack Christopher was the 9-5 morning-line favorite in the Nov. 5 BC Juvenile, but he was scratched on the advice of the veterinarians due to a left shin issue. BloodHorse’s Byron King reported Nov. 16 that Jack Christopher “had a screw inserted in his left shin by orthopedic surgeon Dr. Larry Bramlage, said Bradley Weisbord, racing manager for the colt’s co-owner, Jim Bakke.”

Gerald Isbister, Coolmore Stud and Peter Brant are also members of the Jack Christopher ownership group.

“Due to a couple areas lighting up [on a bone scan], mainly the left shin, he had a procedure done on that shin and he’s going to be out for two months,” said Weisbord, a bloodstock agent whose clients include Bakke and Isbister. “So we will start him back [training] in early 2022 at WinStar Farm and then ship him to Palm Meadows and start his campaign in South Florida.”

Chad Brown trains Jack Christopher. The Kentucky-bred Munnings colt won a six-furlong maiden race by 8 3/4 lengths when unveiled at Saratoga on Aug. 28, then took the Champagne by 2 3/4 lengths.

There will be four more KDFW pools (Jan. 21-13, Feb. 11-13, March 11-13 and March 31-April 2. A 2022 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager will be offered March 11-13.

Below are the final odds reported by Churchill Downs for Pool 1 of the 2022 KDFW:

3-5 “All Other 3-Year-Old Colts & Geldings”
8-1 Smile Happy
10-1 Jack Christopher
21-1 Rattle N Roll
23-1 Pappacap
24-1 Tiz the Bomb
25-1 Gunite
31-1 Comandperformance
37-1 Giant Game
37-1 Mo Donegal
41-1 “All 3-Year-Old Fillies”
43-1 Howling Time
43-1 Major General
44-1 Classic Causeway
52-1 Epicenter
54-1 Varatti
56-1 Zandon
66-1 Ben Diesel
72-1 Double Thunder
87-1 Oviatt Class
98-1 Trafalgar
133-1 Graphic Detail
138-1 Forced Ranking
155-1 Tapiture

KENTUCKY DERBY SIRE WAGERING

The 2022 Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager once again was offered at the same time as Pool 1 of the KDFW.

In terms of sire wagering, the “All Others” option closed as the 7-2 favorite. Runhappy was 7-1, lowest odds among the 23 individual sires. The DRF’s McGee reported that McIngvale made a $3,000 wager on Runhappy.

Gun Runner was the third choice in the sire wager at 9-1. He was the only other sire to close at lower than 10-1.

Below are the final odds for the 2022 Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager:

7-2 “All Others”
7-1 Runhappy
9-1 Gun Runner
10-1 Quality Road
14-1 Into Mischief
16-1 Empire Maker
17-1 Curlin
18-1 Munnings
18-1 Tapit
20-1 American Pharoah
23-1 Not This Time
24-1 Giant’s Causeway
25-1 Uncle Mo
29-1 Union Rags
32-1 Medaglia d’Oro
33-1 Practical Joke
37-1 Candy Ride
40-1 Nyquist
41-1 Street Sense
45-1 Violence
48-1 Twirling Candy
53-1 Pioneerof the Nile
75-1 Speightstown
76-1 Mastery

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Weekend GamePlan for Dec. 4, 2021: Picks for Cigar Mile, Claiming Crown Distaff Dash, Holiday Inaugural
Marcus Hersh Dec 02, 2021

Gulfstream Park might have needed a supplementary racing office crew just to handle all the entries on Saturday’s Claiming Crown card. The entry box overflowed, and we definitely are making a stop in South Florida during Saturday’s tour of North American stakes racing.

A more important (and more sparsely populated) card comes far up the Atlantic Coast at Aqueduct, host of the Cigar Mile, one of the final Grade 1’s of the season, as well as the Remsen and the Demoiselle. Mo Donegal briefly came under consideration for a play in the Remsen, but he’s 8-5 on the morning line and anything approaching that price would lack any sort of appeal.

Cigar Mile

Speaking of prices, if Americanrevolution really is going to be 5-2 here, it creates value on the rest of the plausible winners. All credit to a solid 3-year-old, but he was left reeling by open competition in the Pennsylvania Derby, and that 108 Beyer last time came facing soft competition on a wet track. This New York-bred strikes me as more plucky than brilliant and I’m happy to play against him as he cuts back to a much faster-paced, one-turn mile.

In fact, several entrants seem unlikely to reach recent peak form. Independence Hall does appear to have improved with the addition of blinkers, but backs up to a one-turn mile from two-turn trips that likely better suit him, and his last-start breakthrough came on a sloppy track.

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Ginobili’s last three races tower above the rest of his career; all came at Del Mar, and trainer Richard Baltas over the last five years in graded dirt stakes in the East and Midwest is 2 for 21.

Code of Honor continues producing evidence that he’s not capable of hitting peak form racing without Lasix.

Even without these negatives I’d accord Following Sea a strong Cigar chance, and with them, he’s an even more appealing play, though perhaps at a price lower than the 5-1 morning line.

The rail draw was a tough spot for Following Sea in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint over a six-furlong trip he can handle but that might be slightly short of ideal. A slightly flat-footed break did him no favors, and after stalking the leaders, the inside hole he went for in upper stretch closed, costing Following Sea momentum in a race dominated by two horses traveling on outside paths.

In terms of his Cigar candidacy, it’s a plus that Following Sea didn’t have a chance to run especially hard at Del Mar, and if he breaks alertly from the fence, this talented colt will have a chance to wire the field at a fair price.

Claiming Crown Distaff Dash

Running Memories is a strong play in this huge field, though I suspect her merits might prove a little too obvious, causing her price to fall below truly fair value.

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What could produce playable odds are two poor running lines from her last three starts, but both those races are eminently excusable. Never hesitate to ignore a subpar showing from a horse trying Euro-style Kentucky Downs for the first time, as Running Memories did while racing without Lasix in her most recent start. And three races back, Running Memories, a turf horse through and through, was rained onto dirt.

This filly has successfully raced on the lead but has shown pressing and closing dimensions, too, which could come in handy in this spot and might actually be a better style for her. I thought Running Memories might have lost focus and idled when nailed two back at Monmouth Park by the very capable Introduced. Running Memories is proven over the local course and won’t have to lose ground after breaking from post 4.

Holiday Inaugural

Another strong opinion: Bullseye Beauty, who might not even be favored in this six-panel Tapeta dash, though she deserves to be.

Bullseye Beauty romped in her career debut, her lone try over the Turfway surface, and is 2 for 2 in synthetic-surface races. She’s not hapless in routes but her four sprints have been considerably better than her two-turn starts, and off a fine second-place Keeneland turf-sprint finish, Bullseye Beauty is set to move forward and win, hopefully at something close to the 7-2 morning-line price.

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Oaklawn Park Picks & Betting Analysis for December 4
By J.N. Campbell


OAKLAWN PARK Picks
4th December 2021

Race 1 : 7-3-5-6
Race 2 : 5-2-6-1
Race 3 : 4-6-3-8
Race 4 : 2-4-6-1
Race 5 : 4-5-12-8
Race 6 : 4-2-7-6
Race 7 : 6-12-9-3
Race 8 : 2-8-5-1
Race 9 : 2-9-10-1
Race 10 : 8-4-6-9

Most Likely Winner: (Race 2: Home Brew #5, 9/5):

Brad Cox kicks off the new Oaklawn Meet with much promise. His 2021 has been nothing short of stellar. His ability to command entries at racecourses from Indiana Downs to the Fair Grounds, reflects the magnificent team behind him. I think this colt should win handily against this short field. Last out at Churchill Downs in an ALLW Co. contest, the son of Street Sense just missed with a furious rally. Now, jockey Florent Geroux is taking over the controls. With Lasix, that is an angle that ‘cappers can get behind. Trust in Cox …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #5



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Money Mike #2, 5/1):

The team of Norm Cash and Reylu Gutierrez are going to try and win this one for Built Right Stables. They have a well-bred colt who looks poised to come to Oaklawn and score. Into Mischief is the world’s leading sire, commanding a stud fee of $750k. His progeny continues to do well in the highest classes of races in North America. Right now, this one is as fit as can be, after a win at the Waiver MC level at Churchill Downs. I like the ability of Gutierrez when it comes to the dirt. To my eye, he is a budding talent with the capability of taking on the best. Here is to hoping this runner will ratchet towards 8/1 on the tote board … wouldn’t that be something!

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #2 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 9: Dirt, 1 1/16th, Mistletoe S., $150k, 3F):

The “feature” on the Saturday card at Oaklawn is this contest … the Mistletoe S.! Barns will look to use this race as a springboard to bigger, and better things in Spring 2022. Once again, Brad Cox has the advantage with an uncoupled entry … Marion Francis #1 and Amendment Nineteen #9. Of these 2, I am rather persuaded by the latter. This filly by Constitution was sharp as can be coming back to Churchill in a high-level ALLW Co. race. With Florent Geroux in the irons, this runner could be the one to watch late in the game. I like Cox’s plays, but really and truly, I am going to try and beat them with Steve Asmussen’s Willful Woman #2. This daughter of Nyquist did not care for the slop at Churchill back on 12 November. That is probably why she finished 8th, but some would point to the cold riding of Ricardo Santana. He just has not had the numbers of late, and a falling out with the HOF trainer is not surprising. Asmussen can be tough on jockeys, and the longtime relationship appears on the skids. With Ramon Vasquez taking over the duties, it will be interesting to see how this pair makes out. Rounding out the ticket I have constructed here, I have one more trick up my sleeve. Trainer Bret Calhoun is a sharp fellow, and he sends Lovely Ride #10 into the fray. She is accomplished at some of the lower “Graded” levels, and even though she did not ship well into Remington Park last time, I think she has ability. Her past efforts speak to being able to hang with the best that this race has to offer. Let’s put her in, and see if we can get this ticket cashed!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Superfecta Wheel, 2 w 1/9/10 w 1/9/10 w 1/9/10

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Aqueduct Picks & All-Stakes Late Pick 4 Betting Analysis for December 4: Cigar Mile Day
By J.N. Campbell


AQUEDUCT Picks
4th December 2021

Race 1 : 7-2-4-1
Race 2 : 9-3-4-2
Race 3 : 7-1-5-9
Race 4 : 9-1-4-2
Race 5 : 3-5-6-1
Race 6 : 2-6-5-10
Race 7 : 2-1-6-3
Race 8 : 7-3-1-4
Race 9 : 1-5-3-4
Race 10 : 3-5-2-1

LATE PICK 4…

LEG 1: (Race 7: Dirt, 1 Mile, Go for Wand H. (G3), $250k, F&M 3+)

The opening leg of this All-Stakes Pick 4 is a 1-turn mile that is sure to stir some excitement. This G3 has some strong entries, but I like the look of Brad Cox’s Lady Rocket #2. She is a filly that deserves favoritism, and should take quite a bit of money after winning the divided Pumpkin Pie 100k on Halloween at Belmont. Irad Ortiz gets the call once again, and even though he and Cox do not work together that often, that could change in the near future. If she can take a step forward from that race, then she has a great chance to notch this Grade 3 victory. We should not forget that this one by Tale of the Cat was 2nd in the Gallant Bloom (G2) 2 races back. Kicking off this sequence, that is why she is a “Single,” for me.

Selections: 2 (Single)



LEG 2: (Race 8: Dirt, 1 1/8th, The Remsen S. (G2), $250k, 2)

After that “Single” in the 1st Leg, I will have the opportunity to go deeper in a race that is anyone’s game. The Remsen is a KYD148 Points race, and even though runners that have one have not made it to the winner’s circle on the “1st Saturday in May,” doesn’t mean that there is not talent in here. Earlier in the week, I was pretty convinced when I first looked at the entries that Chad Brown’s Zandon #7 was the pick. I stand by that top selection because this colt by Upstart comes from a fabulous barn, and broke his maiden in fine style back at Belmont in early October. The speed fig that day was excellent for never having run in competition, and with Joel Rosario back aboard, this one looks awfully smart. When you are bred by the former Governor of Kentucky, Brereton Jones, you know you have a possible winner. I want to include a couple of others though that will keep me honest, especially since I have some room in the budget. Let’s not leave out Shug McGaughey’s Judge Davis #3, nor Todd Pletcher’s Mo Donegal #1. Both of these entries are experienced, and are looking to really make an impact for their respective outfits. In particular, the latter broke his maiden last out at Belmont, and showcased an impressive leg kick late in the game in that MSW90k affair. Irad Ortiz is aboard once again … I think going 3-Deep should do the trick …

Selections: 1/3/7 (3-Deep)



LEG 3: (Race 9: Dirt, 1 1/8th, Demoiselle S. (G2), $250k, 2F)

Moving right along, we are now taking a look at the “sister race” to The Remsen … The Grade 2 Demoiselle S. This one has Kentucky Oaks implications (10-4-2-1), and brings together an intriguing group of 8. Some of the entries in here do not make much sense … i.e. Full Count Felicia #8, who just seems out of her depth having never tried dirt in 3 starts. Of course, Todd Pletcher’s Nest #5 is a must to include, especially considering she hit-the-board last time out in the Tempted 150k back at Belmont in early November. Irad is aboard once again, and if she can stretch out (Curlin’s offspring do), then she could win the day. I also want to add in a few others … like Pletcher’s other half of the uncoupled entry Miss Interpret #1. This daughter of Street Sense has some budding talent, even though she shipped to Keeneland and turned in a “dud” of a race in the Alcibiades (G1). Maybe this is her cue to rebound, and make amends. How about adding Jorge Abreu’s Venti Valentine #3? She is by Firing Line, a sire that does not get much notoriety. I wouldn’t write this one off because she is 2/2 in her career. Both victories at Belmont were solid, and you know Johnny V is coming to play. Last but not least, HOF trainer Bill Mott is at the “Big A,” and his runner, Nostalgic #4 is extremely well-bred. A Godolphin homebred, she broke her maiden on debut at Belmont, and won convincingly at odds of 9/1. That was a 1 1/16th, which is not terribly easy to do. I would not count her out whatsoever … Those are my picks for inclusion, and I am hoping one of them gets home!

Selections: 1/3/4/5/8 (5-Deep)



LEG 4: (Race 10: Dirt, 1 Mile, Cigar Mile (G1), $750k, 3+)

The anchor leg of this Late Pick 4 ticket has arrived, and I am pretty keen on Todd Pletcher’s Americanrevolution #3. This is a young 3-yr-old colt who has done little wrong since coming over to this HOF trainer’s outfit. I realize he is running against much tougher company than in the Empire Classic 300k, which was when we saw him last. There is no question that this son of Constitution has ability, and I would not be surprised if he wins nicely against this lot. If you can take on the likes of Hot Rod Charlie, then that speaks volumes … Let’s also include a few others that could easily bring their “A-Game.” Do not forget Brad Cox’s Plainsman #2, who looks the part. If he can class elevate, then he could be a formidable runner in here. Manny Franco gets the call, at quite a price … Besides this shot, do not overlook Following Sea #1 from the excellent folks at Spendthrift, or the member of Eclipse Thoroughbreds, Independence Hall #5. Last but not least, the venerable Code of Honor #4, for HOF trainer Shug McGaughey, looks the part as he spurns retirement. Lane’s End decided to send him back to the track for at least one more ride. Looking at this line-up, I think the choice to go 5-Deep makes a ton of sense. Let’s go get some money!

Selections: 1/2/3/4/5 (5-Deep)

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.50 P4 TICKET COST: $37.50

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INTERSTATE RACING TIPS – DECEMBER 4TH

RSN927

RSN and Sky Racing’s race-caller Darren Flindell covers all the daily racing tips for the NSW meeting at Rosehill on Saturday the 4th of December.

Rail Position: +4m Entire
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Good 4
Weather: Overcast
Penetrometer: 5.08
Darren Flindell Rosehill Tips

Rosehill, 4th December

Race 1 Selections: 3,8,1,2
Race 2 Selections: 1,2,3,5
Race 3 Selections: 10,1,6,2
Race 4 Selections: 9,4,8,1
Race 5 Selections: 3,14,1,4
Race 6 Selections: 11,7,8,2
Race 7 Selections: 4,2,3,1
Race 8 Selections: 8,1,3,5
Race 9 Selections: 1,7,8,3
Race 10 Selections: 7,13,9,8
Best Bet

Race 9 – 1. Brutality

RSN Form Analyst Michael Maxworthy covers all the daily racing tips for the QLD meeting at Doomben on Saturday the 4th of December.

Rail Position: +2m Entire Course
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Soft 7
Weather: Fine
Penetrometer: 6.08
Michael Maxworthy Doomben Tips

Doomben, 4th December 2021

Race 1 Selections: 1,3,11,2
Race 2 Selections: 1,2,12,11
Race 3 Selections: 1,3,5,6
Race 4 Selections: 2,3,9,10
Race 5 Selections: 2,3,10,9
Race 6 Selections: 3,7,2,11
Race 7 Selections: 4,3,12,2
Race 8 Selections: 6,2,14,7
Race 9 Selections: 5,9,4,1
Race 10 Selections: 4,1,10,7
Best Bets

Race 9 – 5. Zoustyle

Race 5 – 2. Far Too Easy
Quaddie

Quaddie 1:4,3,12,2
Quaddie 2:6,2,14,7
Quaddie 3:5,9,4
Quaddie 4:4,1,10

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Horse Racing Tips: Saturday, December 4th
December 4th 2021, 12:42am, By: Billy Bestford

Horse Racing Tips: Saturday, December 5th
Rosehill Race 1

(8) Shihonka returned to the track with a bang and showed enough there for me to think she may be in for a big prep. Trialled very nicely leading into that first up run and I don’t think she’ll have any issues stretching to 1350m. Will go straight to the front and it looks like she’s going to get her favoured dry conditions. Admittedly a much tougher race here but I think she’s good enough and looks on the up.


TIP:
(8) Shihonka
$2.40

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Pakenham Race 1

(7) Tycoon Bec went okay fresh to run 3rd but should take a heap of improvement out of that run. That was her first start for 10 months so she was entitled to tire late. Jamie Kah jumps on and this horse has a bit of upside about her. Happy to be against the favourite who admittedly was very good last start but is much better on rain affected going. Think the mile 2nd up with little speed in the race should set up pretty well for her here.


TIP:
(7) Tycoon Bec
$3.80

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Rosehill Race 4

Keen to be with (8) Mr Mosaic here coming into this first up without any trials. He did the exact same thing last prep and went on to win very well over this trip. Hoping he can slot in behind the speed from that barrier and should be in striking distance when they turn for home. He’s undefeated from three first up runs and if you are going to back him this prep, it should be here today.


TIP:
(8) Mr Mosaic
$2.90

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Pakenham Race 5

Think (7) Frankie Pinot will be extremely hard to beat here well down in the weights. This horse is as honest as they come and never runs a bad race, having only missed the trifecta twice in 15 career starts. He’ll get back as usual but won’t know himself having to carry just 51kg after the claim and I think this race sets up nicely for him. There’s a heap of horses who like to race on speed so there should be a genuine enough tempo and if Frankie is out in clear air, he has the turn of foot to beat these.


TIP:
(7) Frankie Pinot
$2.20

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Rosehill Race 8

(1) Francesco Guardi has continued to improve at each run this prep and I think today could be the day for him. He was heavily backed last start but just had too much to do. Jmac can have him a touch closer today from gate 4 and 4th up now this horse should be ready to pull out a peak run.


TIP:
(1) Francesco Guardi
$4.20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocket Picks ��: Gulfstream, Oaklawn, and Aqueduct Picks for December 4, 2021
By: Jared Welch

Gulfstream Park December 4, 2021

Race 8: Starter Stakes

#2 Bad Beat Brian can be counted on to show up with a solid effort every time. He will turn for home with a chance again today. #7 Belgrano will be looking for his fourth straight win in this spot. His last three races have been ultra-impressive.

Race 9: Starter Stakes
freestar

#1 Im a G Six has been facing tough company lately, so this could be looked at as a class drop, which obviously will help. #3 Financial System runs second off the claim for Saffie after running a solid second last time out for him.

Race 10: Starter Stakes

#6 Strike Appeal won first off the claim last time out, which was his third straight victory. He is the one they will all have to catch in this spot. #3 Girolamos Attack will look for his third straight victory after winning similar races to this one in his last two starts.

Race 11: Starter Stakes

#5 Mandate has won two races in a row coming into this one, earning speed figures that are very competitive with this group, so 8-1 is a very fair price. #8 Max K. O. moves back to the turf today, which is easily his best surface. He narrowly lost on the synthetic surface last time out.

THE TICKET
freestar

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 8-11) 2,7,11 / 1,3,5 / 3,4,6 / 3,5,8 – $40.50