Service Plays Monday 12/20/21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take #857 Western Michigan (+21) over Notre Dame (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 20)

I'm going to assume that the motivation levels of these two teams are going to be very different. Notre Dame is in a clear letdown spot. They had a huge game with Indiana in the Pacers' arena on Saturday. Before that they hosted Kentucky in their last home game. Now they are facing Western Michigan. The Broncs should be stoked for a chance to take on the Irish in South Bend. They stink and have nothing going for them this year so this is a big game. The students aren't on campus. It's a few days before Christmas. This is a nothing game against a nothing opponent. I expect a C- effort from the Irish here. They will win this game easily but I don't see them throwing it into that extra gear that has them win it by 25+. Take the points.

Carpe diem. Good luck.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph

TROPHY plays Chi Bears + 6 1/2

Bowl gm Tulsa -9

CBB La Monroe -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

4* OKC +9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

5* Minnesota Timberwolves -110
5* Chicago +5.5
4* Notre Dame -21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports

4* Bears +5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Prop - Monday, Dec 20 2021 8:15PM
Jefferson O

(-110)BetOnline 331 MIN vs 332 CHI single-dime bet

Analysis:
Justin Jefferson (MIN) O95.5 Rec Yds -110 (Fanduel/Wynn/PB/Hard Rock)

Most of the market is 96.5/97.5 and those numbers are fine.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

5* OKC +9

[rocky57]

H&H Sports

NFL
Triple Dime - Vikings -6.5

[don]

FOR TOMORROW TUESDAY :

Nick Borrman
5% Soccer play.

Game: Atalanta at Genoa
Date/Time: Dec 21 2021 2:45 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total OVER 3.0 (-115)

Italy Serie A
Most people are aware of Atalanta's offensive abilities and the fact they can score 5 goals in any given game, so it shouldn't come as much surprise that I like the Over here when facing one of the league's worst defenses. Atalanta have scored the 2nd most goals in the league this year, 38 so far in 18 games while Genoa have allowed the 4th most goals with 37. Even better, Atalanta's defense has not been very good this year as they have kept just two clean sheets in their last 16 games and are coming off a home loss to Roma, allowing four goals to make in ten goals allowed in their last four games.
Genoa meanwhile have allowed three goals in three of their last four league games and have had 12 of 18 matches this season reach at least three goals scored while Atalanta have had 14 of 18 reach this total.
This could be a game that ends with a push on three goals, but I think that only happens if Atalanta keep a clean sheet which they have proven they can't do this year. Additionally, they have kept just one clean sheet in Genoa in the last 13 meetings and overall, only one of the last 11 H2H's have failed to reach at least three goals.
Atalanta will be desperate to rebound from that bad loss to Roma and they may cover this number themselves.
TAKE OVER 3.0 GOALS
Line Parameter: 5% to -130, 4% to 3.25

[don]

FOR TOMORROW TUESDAY :

Carmine Bianco
5% Soccer play.

TUESDAY 5% SOCCER TOTAL TOP PLAY
Game: (201205) Atalanta at (201206) Genoa
Date/Time: Dec 21 2021 2:45 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 3.0 (-113)

Italy Serie A - Atalanta at Genoa
Quick Synopsis: This is a system play based on our number expectancy that came back at 4.38 making it a play. Additionally Atalanta who have been one of Serie A's highest scoring sides over the past 2-3 years visit one of the leagues worst defensive sides (17th) on Tuesday and come off a 4-1 home loss to Roma and will be looking to rebound here against a Genoa side who themselves come off a 3-1 away defeat at Lazio. 9 of the last 10 Serie A meeting have produced 3 or more goals between these sides including the last 7 at Genoa. 6 of 9 home fixtures have produced 3 or more for Genoa this season with 2 of those unders coming from the 2 lowest scoring sides in Serie A this season. 7 of 9 Atalanta away fixtures have produced 3 or more with 1 of the 2 unders from the leagues lowest scoring side. Last seasons fixture in Genoa saw Atalanta come away with a 4-3 decision.
The play is Over 3.0

[don]

FOR WEDNESDAY :

Nick Borrman
5% Soccer play.

Game: Spezia at Napoli
Date/Time: Dec 22 2021 2:45 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Napoli -1.5 (-130)

Italy Serie A
Napoli earned a very good win on Sunday, 1-0 at AC Milan to jump them into the 2nd spot in the table. They have been excellent this year with a 35:13 goal differential and this is a good spot for them to head into the winter break with another win.
Spezia are really struggling this season, however just above the relegation line, as their defense has been nothing short of terrible, allowing the 2nd most goals in the league, 39, while scoring just 18. On the road they have lost six straight games, five of them by 2+ goals, the only one the kept it to just a one-goal loss was against #15 Sampdoria.
Napoli have the 3rd best xG differential at +0.82 thanks to the best defense in the league according to xG, allowing just 0.76 xGA per game. Spezia have allowed the 4th most xGA at 1.80 per game with the 3rd worst differential at -0.78 and away from home that jumps to -1.36.
Napoli Home:
1.71 xG | 0.81 xGA
17.9 Shots for | 5.1 on Goal
10.0 Shots allowed | 3.3 on Goal
Spezia Away:
0.75 xG | 2.11 xGA
9.7 Shots for | 3.7 on Goal
16.4 Shots allowed | 7.4 on Goal
TAKE NAPOLI -1.5
Line Parameter: 5% is good to -1.75 but I'll pay the premium to get the full win with a two-goal win.