Saturday 1/1/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Steve Janus

Jan 01 '22, 7:05 PM in 7h
NHL | Blues vs Wild
Play on: UNDER 6 -110

1* Free Sharp Play on Blues vs Wild under 6 -110

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Jeff Alexander

Jan 01 '22, 8:10 PM in 9h
NBA | Nuggets vs Rockets
Play on: Rockets +7 -105 at pinnacle

1* NBA - Nuggets/Rockets FREE PICK on Rockets +7
Saturday's Free NBA Pick is on the Houston Rockets as a 7-point home dog against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets just had their game against the Warriors on Thursday postponed because they didn't have the necessary 8 players to play. While they figure to get some guys back to be able to play, there's still are going to have no depth and the guys coming back don't figure to be in prime form, especially from a conditioning standpoint. I know the Rockets are on the second of a back-to-back, but it's not as bad in this spot when there's no travel (both games at home). Houston is also looking pretty good in terms of their injury report. Most of their key guys are in the lineup. Bet the Rockets +7!

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Doc's Sports

Jan 01 '22, 8:45 PM in 9h
NCAA-F | Baylor vs Ole Miss
Play on: Ole Miss -1 -111 at pinnacle

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #284 Ole Miss Rebels -1 over Baylor Bears (8:45p.m., Saturday, January 1 ESPN) SUGAR BOWL This is not a great matchup for a big television draw after the Rose Bowl, but we expect the SEC to take down the Big 12. Baylor is coming off an emotional win last time out against Oklahoma State and I expect there to be a letdown for them in this game. Baylor is not seen an offense as explosive as Ole Miss and thus I do not believe they will be able to keep pace in this game. Baylor is just 5-12 ATS in their last 18 nonconference games. Ole Miss is 6-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 bowl games. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend Football Card featuring Week 17 NFL winners, bowl games, and our College Bowl Game of the Year. Get all of the action now and let 50 years of handicapping experience work for you.

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Sean Murphy

Jan 01 '22, 8:45 PM in 9h
NCAA-F | Baylor vs Ole Miss
Play on: OVER 57 -113

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Baylor and Ole Miss at 8:45 pm et on Saturday.
Baylor enters this game on the heels of four straight 'under' results while Mississippi has shockingly seen the 'under' cash in seven straight contests. I expect a different story to unfold as the two teams meet on the 'fast track' at the Superdome in New Orleans on Saturday. Baylor was able to lean on its defense to win games over the course of the regular season and certainly in the Big 12 Championship Game against Oklahoma State. I believe the Bears will enter this game knowing they're going to put up a significant number of points, however. That's because Ole Miss is an offensive juggernaut that will be eager to get back on the field after a long layoff (it hasn't played since posting a Thanksgiving Night win over rival Mississippi State). The Rebels had a number of key offensive contributors playing hurt or sidelined over the course of the regular season but all indications they'll be 'all systems go' for this one with QB Matt Corral surprisingly electing to play rather than sit out and prepare for the NFL Draft. The Rebels will play fast as always, and should offer somewhat of a 'shock to the system' for the Bears defense, which hasn't faced an offense anything like Lane Kiffin's in the Big 12 this season. I do question whether the Ole Miss defense can hold up for four quarters, however. Its schedule was front-loaded this season so we saw it thrive down the stretch thanks to a very manageable schedule. The Bears will pose a serious threat. Take the over.

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Hunter Price

Jan 01 '22, 9:00 PM in 9h
NCAA-B | Abilene Christian vs Dixie State
Play on: Dixie State +9½ -110 at SC Consensus

1* Free Pick on Dixie State +9½ -110

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Cole Faxon

Jan 01 '22, 9:00 PM in 9h
NCAA-B | Weber State vs Montana
Play on: Montana -3½ -110 at Mirage

FREE PLAY on Montana -3½ -110

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Art Aronson

Jan 01 '22, 10:35 PM in 11h
NHL | Flyers vs Kings
Play on: Kings -154 at SC Consensus

1* FREE PLAY LA Kings.
I think the Kings are worth the price of admission tonight. Philly is off a 3-2 OT loss at San Jose, and I think it'll have difficulty with this LA team that's won seven of its last ten, including a 2-1 shootout victory over the Canucks here two nights ago. These teams average approx. the same amount of goals, but the difference comes on the defensive side where Philly allows 3.13 GPG, while LA concedes 2.66. LA is 5-1 in its last six after scoring two goals or less in its previous contest, while Philadelphia is just 2-10 in its last 12 as a dog. The play is the Kings.

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Team Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes for races on Saturday (1/1)

By Dave Tuley (VSiN senior reporter)

Happy New Year! After taking a week off with no U.S. tracks running on Christmas Day last Saturday, Team Tuley is back to look for value at tracks from coast to coast.

We also want to wish Happy Birthday to all racehorses as they all share a universal birthday on Jan. 1 as 2-year-olds turn 3, 3-year-old turn 4 and so on. My friend Ed Sehon (aka Mr. Ed from his “Saratoga on (about) $100 a Day” columns last summer) and I offers some plays from Gulfstream while Sehon and Rampart race and sports book manager Duane Colucci give differing opinions on the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn and Colucci also has a Pick 4 at Aqueduct.

Good luck today (and every day)!

SATURDAY

Gulfstream Race No. 4 (1:29 p.m. ET/10:29 a.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #5 Jumeirah (7-2 morning line). “Well-traveled, tested 3-year-old daughter of Twirling Candy returns after ambitious sophomore campaign. Solid conditioner David Carlos gains riding services of journeyman Paco Lopez and adds blinkers as he stretches filly out in the $100,000 Cash Run Stakes at a mile. Wager: Win.”

Gulfstream Race No. 6 (2:31 p.m. ET/11:31 a.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #7 Lucky as a Seven (7-2 morning line). “Grandson of super-sire Storm Cat adds blinkers for trainer Juan Avila in second consecutive synthetic surface sprint. Excellent Sunshine State jockey Emisael Jaramillo picks up mount. Gelding wears lucky #7 saddle cloth for first time. Sounds like a winning highball. Wager: Win and Place.”

Aqueduct Races Nos. 6-9 (2:48 p.m. ET/11:48 a.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes the following $.50 Pick 4 (cost $54)

Race 6: 1,2,3,4,8,9

Race 7: 1,6,7

Race 8: 1,3

Race 9: 1,2,4

Gulfstream Race No. 7 (3:05 p.m. ET/12:05 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #2 O Captain (6-1 morning line). “This Gustavo Delgado trainee makes his 3-year-old debut in the $100,000 Limehouse Stakes. He romped by more than 9 lengths in his only career start and should be the speed of the speed in this 6-furlong sprint and jockey Javier Castellano hits at 23 percent with these early-speed types. Wager: Win.”

Gulfstream Races Nos. 8-11 (3:37 p.m. ET/12:37 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes the following $0.50 Pick 4 (cost $60)

Race 8: 5,6

Race 9: 1,2,5,6,8

Race 10: 2,3,5,6

Race 11: 3,5,7

Duane Colucci likes the following $.50 Pick 4 (cost $72)

Race 8: 2,3,4,5,6,10

Race 9: 5,8

Race 10: 2,3,5,6

Race 11: 3,4,6

Gulfstream Race No. 9 (4:11 p.m. ET/1:11 p.m. PT)

Dave Tuley likes #6 No Nay Franklin (10-1 morning line). “I don’t usually like to bet maidens vs. winners, but I feel we’re getting enough value at 10-1 to play this Patrick Biancone trainee in the $100,000 Dania Beach Stakes. No Nay Franklin should be able to sit off the pace and run down the pace-setters in the stretch. Wager: Win and Place.”

Oaklawn Races Nos. 7-10 (4:19 p.m. ET/1:19 p.m. PT)

Duane Colucci likes the following $.50 Pick 4 (cost $60)

Race 7: 1,4,5,6,8,10

Race 8: 2,6,10,11,12

Race 9: 1.9

Race 10: 1,12

Oaklawn Race No. 9 (5:13 p.m. ET/2:13 p.m. PT)

Ed Sehon likes #3 Home Brew (3-1 morning line) in the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes. “These 3-year-old hit the 2022 Kentucky Derby trail in the Smarty Jones Stakes at a mile on the dirt. I trust first-class connections of trainer Brad Cox, jockey Florent Geroux and owners Gary and Mary West, who have been down this Road to the Roses before, to sip some Home Brew in Winner’s Circle. Wager: Win.”

Duane Colucci likes #9 Don’tcrossthedevil (10-1 morning line). “Trainer Philip D’Amato takes over this multiple winner and retains jockey Lane Luzzi. D’Amato slowed this colt after the sharp Dec. 12 work. Distance is not a problem. Ready for top-notch effort. Bet 9 to Win and key 9 over 1,3,4 in exacts and trifectas and reverse.”

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A.I. Pick of the Week (1/1)

By Dave Tuley (VSiN senior reporter)
January 1, 2022 06:46 AM

We’ve been tinkering with the Artificial Intelligence programs at 1/ST BET, which gives us more than 50 data points (such as speed, pace, class, jockey, trainer and pedigree stats) for every race based on how you like to handicap.

Two weeks ago, we scored at Gulfstream with Fearless ($8.20) in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes to get back to .500 at 19-for-38 since taking over this feature. Based on a $2 Win bet on the A.I. Pick of the Week, that’s $76 in wagers and payoffs totalling $79 for an ROI of $2:08 for every $2 wagered.

This week, I ran the races picked by our stable of handicapping friends at “Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” through the 1/ST BET programs and came up with our A.I. Pick of the Week:



Saturday, Jan. 1

Gulfstream Race No. 8 (3:37 p.m. ET/12:37 p.m. PT)

#6 Askew (9-2 ML odds)



* Askew ranks 1st in 11 of the 52 factors used by 1/ST BET A.I.

*This newly turned 4-year-old mare also ranks 1st in 7 of the “Top 15 Factors” at betmix.com, including average earnings at the track, average earnings at the distance and last late pace.

*In addition, Askew also ranks in the Top 5 in 4 of the other 8 categories, including speed in last race and best pedigree rating on dirt and at the distance.”

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Best Bets: New Year’s Day Plays from Coast to Coast
by Monique Vág

This Weekend’s Bets

Saturday, Jan. 1

Best Bet
Television schedule

Thursday, Dec. 30: post time varies on TVG

Friday, Dec. 31: 2:30 p.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, Jan. 1: 2:30 p.m.-6 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, Jan. 2: 2:30 p.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on TVG

Aqueduct, Race 2, 12:50 p.m. ET

#8 Cricket West: This filly’s first start was easily her most impressive as she rallied off a wide trip and just missed right at the wire. Since then, she’s been stuck with some difficult draws and has gotten off to some slower starts versus much tougher competition than she will be up against on Saturday.

Although she does draw outside once again today and tries dirt for the first time, the drop down in class along with the addition of Lasix (furosemide) should have her a lot sharper. With quite a bit of early speed entered, she could really benefit from getting away in mid-pack and then making one late run once she’s within reach turning for home. I think she’s in with a great shot to run this bunch down late.

Longshot Play

Aqueduct, Race 7, 3:20 p.m. EST

#8 Bustin Shout: He returned to the racetrack after 10 months away at the end of November and ended up tiring late versus a tougher overall group than he’ll face Saturday. He posted a similar outcome in his most recent effort, after faster fractions upfront caused him to fade back and finish well beaten on Dec. 10.

He gets another try on Saturday and takes a significant drop in class into the optional claiming ranks. He’s entered for a price tag and is reunited with jockey Kendrick Carmouche who really seems to get along with him well. If he can get to the front and rate well, I think he’s in with a great shot at pulling off the upset.

Best Bet

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Gulfstream Park, Race 9, $100,000 Dania Beach Stakes, 4:11 p.m. ET

#6 No Nay Franklin: He broke a tad bit slow in his debut which I think could have been the difference in losing by a neck on turf. He followed that effort up trying his luck going a little bit longer in a race that was scheduled to be a turf start but was moved to dirt. He showed more speed there and did take the lead late in deep stretch only to be nabbed by a head right at the wire.

I like that he’s returning to the turf on Saturday and gets to try his luck racing a little bit longer. With more distance to cover, there won’t be so much of an emphasis placed on the break. I think he should offer some value as a win candidate as he looks like one of the main players.

Best Bet

Santa Anita Park, Race 9, $200,000 La Canada Stakes, 8 p.m. EST

#5 Park Avenue: She’s going to have to bring her “A-Game” and put forth her best career effort yet, but I do think she’s capable of pulling off the minor upset versus a bunch of quality stakes fillies.

She comes in riding a two-race winning streak and she’s looked so impressive in both back-to-back scores, starting with a maiden win in late October and then an allowance score on Dec. 12. She’s peaking at the absolute right time and I have every reason to believe that she’s fast and talented enough to match up well versus this established group.

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R and R Totals	NCAA Basketball	CHICAGO STATE COUGARS/NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES o135.5	2	2	-20
5thstreetpicks		No pick yet	2	2	-40
Top Dog		No pick yet	0	1	-100
Ace / Sleeper Selections		No pick yet	0	1	-110
Insider Sports Report		No pick yet	0	1	-110
Mikey Money		No pick yet	0	1	-110
Joe Wiz	NCAA Basketball	BALL STATE CARDINALS +3	1	2	-120
Pure Lock	NCAA Basketball	KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES ‑110	1	2	-120
Tommy King Wins		No pick yet	0	2	-220
Guaranteed Cappers	NCAA Basketball	KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES ‑110	0	0	0
Winning Cappers	NCAA Basketball	KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES ‑1	0	0	0

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Cincinnati -9½ over Tulane

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, SATURDAY, JANUARY 1, 2022
1/01 05:45 PM PT / 8:45 PM ET

CF (283) BAYLOR VS (284) MISSISSIPPI

Take: over

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: SAN DIEGO ST -3½ over UNLV

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Piassek's Plays: New Year's Day Picks at Fair Grounds
by John Piassek

Saturday, Jan. 1

Fair Grounds, Race 6, post time 4:35 p.m. ET
Television schedule

Thursday, Dec. 30: post time varies on TVG

Friday, Dec. 31: 2:30 p.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, Jan. 1: 2:30 p.m.-6 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, Jan. 2: 2:30 p.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on TVG

#3 Misthaven: After a string of starts against stakes company, this filly should enjoy the class relief into non-winners of two allowance company. She impressively broke her maiden at Kentucky Downs in September, rating in the middle of the pack early on and drawing off to victory. Since then, she's raced twice against stakes horses, and while she ran competitive speed figures for this level, she was not a factor in either one of those races. She adds Lasix for the first time for her 3-year-old debut and should put in a big performance.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$5 to win on 3

$5 exacta, 3 with 1/1A

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$15 to win on 3

$10 exacta, 3 with 1/1A

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$20 to win on 3

$15 exacta 3 with 1/1A, 5 ($30 total)

Fair Grounds, Race 9, post time 6:07 p.m. ET

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#10 Isn't It Time: This Louisiana-bred maiden race predominantly features horses who have raced just once. The key to this race is figuring out who ran the best race on debut and is most likely to move forward second time out.

Isn't It Time looks like that horse. In her first career start on Nov. 27 she was well-backed at this level, going off as the even-money favorite in a race of predominantly first-time starters. She broke slowly but closed well and got up for third. She adds Lasix here and has several recent good workouts. As long as she breaks cleanly, she shouldn't have much trouble with this field.

Strategy on a $10 Budget

$4 to win on 10

$3 exacta, 10 with 7, 8 ($6 total)

Strategy on a $25 Budget

$10 to win on 10

$5 exacta, 10 with 7, 8 ($10 total)

50-cent trifecta, 10 with 7, 8 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 ($5 total)

Strategy on a $50 Budget

$20 to win on 10

$10 exacta, 10 with 7, 8 ($20 total)

$1 trifecta, 10 with 7, 8 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 ($10 total)