Saturday 1/1/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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‘Brewing’ Some Betting Strategies for the Smarty Jones Stakes
by J. Keeler Johnson

Happy New Year!

A trio of Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve prep races will take place Saturday, Jan. 1, across the country to kick off 2022. By far the most competitive on paper is the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, which drew a full field of 14 newly turned 3-year-olds.
Television schedule

Thursday, Dec. 30: post time varies on TVG

Friday, Dec. 31: 2:30 p.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on TVG

Saturday, Jan. 1: 2:30 p.m.-6 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on TVG

Sunday, Jan. 2: 2:30 p.m.-5:30 p.m. on FS1; post time varies on TVG

From top to bottom, the Smarty Jones is stuffed with talent and potential. Narrowing down the contenders is difficult – there are so many viable options to consider. A case of some sort can be made for every horse in the field, so betting payoffs for exotic wagers (like the exacta and trifecta) should be hefty.

If there’s a horse we can count on, it’s probably #3 Home Brew, a son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense out of the Tapit mare Omnitap. As a full brother (same sire [father] and dam [mother]) to Grade 2 Triple Bend Stakes winner Air Strike, Home Brew boasts a pedigree combining speed with stamina, a recipe for success racing one mile.

Indeed, Home Brew has already posted a notable victory over the track and distance of the Smarty Jones. After a couple of solid efforts sprinting for trainer Brad Cox, Home Bred tackled a one-mile allowance optional claimer on Dec. 4 at Oaklawn. The result? Home Brew seized the early lead and never looked back, drawing away down the homestretch to win by 3 ¾ lengths.

Home Brew did benefit from securing an easy lead, but there isn’t a ton of speed on paper in the Smarty Jones field, so another relatively relaxed trip should be in the offing on Saturday. Hot jockey Florent Geroux (a 26% winner at Oaklawn) retains the mount, and it’s worth noting Cox’s barn has been on fire at Oaklawn this meet, winning at a 39% rate.

If we count on Home Brew to deliver on top, then we can afford to spread a bit deeper underneath in hopes of cashing exacta and trifecta tickets. The following runners are the ones we’ll emphasize:

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#1 Dash Attack: This Kenny McPeek trainee delivered a sharp victory in his first start racing one mile at Oaklawn, charging from fourth place to win by 1 ¼ lengths. McPeek trainees often improve off their debuts, so Dash Attack has the potential to step forward in the Smarty Jones.

#2 All in Sync: He displayed excellent tactical speed when nabbing a maiden sprint at Churchill Downs in November by 1 ½ lengths. Although All in Sync is bred for speed, he figures to secure a forwardly placed trip in the Smarty Jones and should benefit from avoiding traffic in this full field.

#10 Barber Road: Runner-up in the Lively Shively Stakes sprinting at Churchill Downs, Barber Road is also proven running long, posting a gate-to-wire victory in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Keeneland during the fall. Barber Road has plenty of tactical speed, and jockey Reylu Gutierrez has been ultra-hot lately, winning five stakes at Fair Grounds Dec. 26-27.

#14 Ben Diesel: A flashy debut winner racing 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs, Ben Diesel subsequently ran well in Churchill’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, tracking the pace before weakening late to finish fourth. Ben Diesel is bred to thrive running long, but he risks a wide trip while breaking from post 14.

Depending on how much budget you’ve allocated to spend, we’ll recommend two separate betting strategies. Both involve keying Home Brew on top of exotic wagers. The $12 strategy focuses on the exacta, while the $30 strategy goes bigger and bolder by adding a trifecta to the mix.

Wagering Strategy on a $12 Budget

$3 exacta: 3 with 1,2,10,14 ($12)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 9th race, $3 exacta 3 with 1,2,10,14

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$3 exacta: 3 with 1,2,10,14 ($12)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 9th race, $3 exacta 3 with 1,2,10,14

$1.50 trifecta: 3 with 1,2,10,14 with 1,2,10,14 ($18)

What to say at the betting window: Oaklawn Park, 9th race, $1.50 trifecta 3 with 1,2,10,14 with 1,2,10,14

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turfway Park

Turfway Park - Race 6	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / 50 cent Pick 5 (Races 6-7-8-9-10)
Claiming $18,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 4 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 3:38P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $18,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $16,000 1 LB. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. HABOBANERO is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HABOBANERO: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MY GOOD GIRL: Today is a sprint and the ho rse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BETHABARA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LAS RAMBLAS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
4	HABOBANERO	4/1	3/1
3	MY GOOD GIRL	6/1	7/1
1	BETHABARA	9/2	8/1
6	LAS RAMBLAS	7/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	HABOBANERO	4	4/1	Stalker	96	89	79.0	79.4	76.9
7	DARK TEMPTRESS	7	5/1	Stalker	78	67	62.7	65.1	53.6
6	LAS RAMBLAS	6	7/2	Stalker	82	76	59.2	74.6	64.6
1	BETHABARA	1	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	86	76	59.6	74.6	66.6
3	MY GOOD GIRL	3	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	84	58.6	75.2	67.7
2	PRINCESSTAPITURE	2	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	89	80	49.4	68.2	56.7
8	UNAQUOI	8	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	86	80	39.0	59.4	53.9
5	DRINKATTHECREEK	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	69	38.0	63.6	50.1

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds

Fair Grounds - Race 9	Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 77 • Purse: $45,000 • Post: 5:07P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $25,000 IN THEIR LAST 3 STARTS).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CANDY'S PRIDE is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * ISN'T IT TIME: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMas ter Power Rating. PINEAPPLE ALLEY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BOSTON MILLIE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. WINNIE B: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. RUN NATALI E RUN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
10	ISN'T IT TIME	3/1	9/2
7	PINEAPPLE ALLEY	9/2	6/1
9	BOSTON MILLIE	10/1	8/1
2	WINNIE B	12/1	9/1
8	RUN NATALIE RUN	5/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	CANDY'S PRIDE	3	10/1	Front-runner	0	0	82.5	21.8	9.8
9	BOSTON MILLIE	9	10/1	Stalker	78	45	62.6	42.7	36.2
8	RUN NATALIE RUN	8	5/1	Trailer	67	49	56.9	46.5	41.5
7	PINEAPPLE ALLEY	7	9/2	Trailer	65	58	47.4	55.0	51.0
10	ISN'T IT TIME	10	3/1	Trailer	78	57	40.8	54.0	50.5
4	STOP SHOP N DROP	4	10/1	Trailer	0	0	12.3	40.8	32.3
1	LOVELY LADY MAY	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	38.9	38.9	29.4

Unknown Running Style: WINNIE B (12/1) [Jockey: Green Aubrie - Trainer: Gelner Scott], DREWSILLA (12/1) [Jockey: Nieves Emanuel - Trainer: Mouton Patrick], MO BELLA (8/1) [Jockey: Riquelme Jose - Trainer: Dandridge Jr C], CLASSICAL MAGNOLIA (20/1) [J

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 74

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JULY 1. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 CHARGAREE 2/1
# 3 HOBOKEN HUSTLE 5/2
# 4 SECRET PRINCESS 4/1

CHARGAREE is the best wager in this race. Don't overlook this mare in your bets - very dangerous with Salazarbecerra aboard. Ran a very solid last race. Has been racing admirably and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. HOBOKEN HUSTLE - Vaunts solid speed figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this group of horses. Ran a very solid last race. SECRET PRINCESS - The speed rating of 66 from her last race looks respectable in here.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - SO - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING $25,000-$20,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $20,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 GRAYWING 5/2
# 1 UNCLE ROAMIE 20/1
# 3 JOHN THE BEAR 2/1

GRAYWING has a quite good shot to take this race. Sound average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this animal a key contender. This horse enters today's contest with second time Lasix. Must be given consideration - I like the figures from the last contest. UNCLE ROAMIE - Seems to have a formidable class edge based on the latest company kept. This racer has some longshot angles going for him. JOHN THE BEAR - He has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the most respectable in this group. The average Equibase class rating alone makes this one a key contender.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4 - Post: 1:44pm - Optional Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $26,500 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#5 ROUGHLY A DIAMOND (ML=9/2)
#4 MINING CHROME (ML=5/2)


ROUGHLY A DIAMOND - Based on the past performances I have, she's a dominant closer. May be worth a few bucks. Trainer Nihei moves this horse down the class scale to face weaker company. Look for a nice effort this time out. I expect a lot from this race horse. Her speed figs under similar conditions are tops in this bunch. This animal likes the turf a whole heck of a lot better. Look at the start 2 races back on Oct 13th and take a note on the surface change. We may be sitting on a real live one! MINING CHROME - This filly is in exceptional physical condition right now. Ended up third last out and comes back promptly. The most recent speed fig of 82 is the highest last race speed fig in the field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MYFAVORITEDAUGHTER (ML=3/1), #8 HATARI (ML=5/1), #6 SWEET LAURA (ML=6/1),

MYFAVORITEDAUGHTER - Hasn't been coming close at all of late. HATARI - Let me give you a lesson. For the most part, don't play a maiden breaker out of a maiden claimer next out. Pedestrian speed fig in the last race at Turfway Park at 1 mile. Don't think this questionable contender will improve too much in today's event. SWEET LAURA - The fifth place finish position in the last race was not that great.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - ROUGHLY A DIAMOND - Some may pass on this one given her lackluster performance at Keeneland in last race. But that was on a sloppy track. Watch out for this animal today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 ROUGHLY A DIAMOND is going to be the play if we are getting 8/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	5 with 4 with [1,6,8] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	[4,5] with [4,5] with [1,2,6,8] with [1,2,6,8] with [1,2,6,8] Total Cost: $48