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Vernon Croy
7-Unit Play - #841 Montana -3.5 -110 over Portland State (Thursday, January 20, 2022, 10:00 PM)
Take Montana ATS as my top college basketball pick for Thursday night. This pick falls into one my top college basketball systems and I have Montana winning this game by 10+ points on the road here tonight. Montana is the superior team coming into this game and they have averaged 73 points per game over their last 5 games. Montana has also shot 47.3% as a team against conference opponents this season and they have held opponents to just 63.2 points per game against them this season. Montana has also shot 81.7% as a team at the line this season and Portland State has shot just 70.3% as a team from the line which would matter if this game happens to be close down the stretch. Portland State has shot just 23.5% as a team from beyond the arc at home this season and they have shot just 39.9% overall. Portland State's opponents have shot 47.2% against them over their last 5 games averaging 72.2 points per game and this is a nice bounce back spot for Montana here tonight. Keep in mind this is the same Montana team that just beat Eastern Washington 90-78 on the road back on January 6 and that is the same Eastern Washington team that beat Portland State at home 63-58 back on December 30. Play Montana ATS as we move to 27-12 with my last 39 college basketball plays and make sure you get on my top NHL pick that goes Thursday night as I look for an easy victory on the ice.
5-Unit Play: Take 752 Georgia St. -6 over Appalachian St. (7 p.m., Thurs. Jan. 20)
Georgia State has been seriously hamstrung by Covid issues this season but they're healthy at this point and I expect a win and cover tonight. GSU is 4-1 SU at home this season and they've been outstanding in turnover percentage at both ends of the floor. In fact, other than 3-point defense, GSU has played well on the defensive end. Best thing about this matchup is that ASU is a horrible 3-point shooting team (takes too many treys) and shouldn't be able to exploit GSU's deep perimeter defense. ASU ranks 288th and 301st in offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency respectively. I'm laying the points with Georgia State on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
3-Unit Play: Take 779 USC -2 over Colorado (7:30 p.m., Thursday, January 20)
USC has dropped two of their last three after a 79-69 loss to Oregon over the weekend but I expect a bounce back right into the win column tonight. Colorado has played three top-30 power rated teams this season and lost all three by double digits. In fact, the Buffaloes lost to UCLA, Tennessee, and Arizona by an average score of 73-57. The Buffs made just 43.4% of their 2-pointers and 22.4% of their 3-pointers in the three losses, a combined minus-15 rebound margin, and finished with more turnovers than assists in all three games. USC is strong at both ends of the floor and outstanding on the defensive end where I'm betting they'll decide the game. I'm backing USC on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
8-Unit Play. Take #744 Indiana (+3.5) over Purdue (7 p.m., Thursday, Jan. 20)
I am looking for Indiana to pull the upset in this one! They are hosting a Top 5 team in Freedom Hall tonight and this is a chance for them to get a big win to add to their NCAA Tournament resume. This is a team that had a history of pulling big upsets on its home court. Purdue is coming off a tough double-overtime win at Illinois on Monday. It is going to be hard for them to come right back with another road win here against an in-state rival. The public is all on Purdue in this one. I am going the other way. Indiana is 11-0 SU at home this year and 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games. The home team is 6-2 ATS in this series. The Hoosiers are also looking to snap a big losing streak to the Boilermakers. They have lost nine straight times to Purdue! Indiana hasn't won in this series since 2016. I think they will do it. Purdue is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games and they are just 5-11 ATS as a road favorite. The Boilermakers are 2-5 ATS against teams with a winning record and 1-4 ATS as a favorite. Indiana is 10-3 ATS as a home underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last even games against a team with a winning record. Take Indiana in this one and look for an outright winner.
Allen Eastman
5-Unit Play: Take #731 Georgetown +10.5 -110 over Providence (5:00p.m., Thursday, January 20) So many key indicators point to the Hoyas being drastically undervalued in this spot. The Friars have enjoyed a ton of positive variance so far this season which can be seen by their #1 luck rating, while Georgetown rank in the bottom-50 in that department. As we always say - water eventually finds it's level and we believe this is a spot for both teams to regress to the mean. Providence are a perfect 10-0 SU at home this season while covering eight of their last 10 games which is forcing sportsbooks to adjust their profile, which in turn, is creating opportunity in the market. Interesting trend to note: Visiting teams that are sub .500 ATS and coming off a blowout loss are 60.4% ATS if their next game is vs. a top-25 ranked team. This trend improves to 62.4% ATS for an astonishing +21.1% ROI when listed as double-digit underdogs. These teams are being overlooked and overvalued time and time again. Value on the Hoyas all the way.
3-Unit Play: Take #741 Charleston +6.5 -110 over Towson (7:00p.m., Thursday, January 20) Simple buy-low spot on Charleston where we don't believe there is enough seperating these two teams to warrant this high of a spread. Towson have covered three-straight by an average margin of +7.16 and are 8-2 ATS in their last-10 games. The Cougars on the other hand have dropped three-straight against the spread by an average cover margin of -8.67 which includes an awful showing against UNC Wilmington. Having said all that - Towson have played one of the easiest strength of schedules in all of college basketball including a #279 SOS rank when it comes to opposing offenses. Recency bias has skewed the market and we see plenty of value on the Cougars that have generally played very well away from home covering three of their last four.
4-Unit Play: Take #863 San Francisco +16 -110 over Gonzaga (11:00p.m., Thursday, January 20) We had to do it. This is just too many points, even if it is against the #1 ranked team in all of college basketball. Let's break it down. First of all, Gonzaga have had a pretty easy go of things when it comes to adjusted strength of schedule, especially when it comes to opposing defenses. The average adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rating of their opponents has been 102.7, while the Dons have an adjusted offensive efficieny rating of 109.7 (ranking #58) and have an elite adjusted defensive rating of 93.3 (good for #25 in the country). This is a buy-low spot on San Francisco that are much, much better than their 5-12 ATS record indicates. In many of their games they have been listed as double-digit favorites and now find themselves as huge underdogs simply because of a rough stretch of market performances. Gonzaga should absolutely win this game, but San Francisco have more than enough tools to keep this within the number.
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