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The Jury: Bets and Fades for Risen Star Day at Fair Grounds
TwinSpires Staff
Editor's Note: With the popular segment of 'The Jury' on Jason Beem's weekly podcast, we will extend the idea to a weekly story which aggregates the opinions of our authoritative writers for upcoming racing action. Aside from our regular team of writers, we will feature other members of our stable to chime in with contributions.
The newly-assembled TwinSpires "jury," consisting of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson, are in a deliberative mood as they kick off a new series looking ahead at the weekend stakes action. Here are their thoughts on Saturday's Risen Star Day card at Fair Grounds.
What is your best bet?
James Scully: #1 La Crete enters the Rachel Alexandra (G2) unbeaten from two starts, including a one-length tally in the Jan. 22 Silverbulletday S., but she's been pegged at 8-1 on the morning line after registering 84 and 86 Brisnet Speed ratings. However, lightly-raced horses who haven't been exposed are always eligible to increase their Speed ratings significantly. Last year's three-year-old filly champion, Malathaat, is a perfect example, registering 86 and 92 numbers winning her first two starts in the fall of her juvenile season – her figures have risen to 107 and 108 in the last two outings. La Crete is also just getting started, a promising filly with potentially enormous upside. The daughter of Curlin has been on the lead by default in both starts, but she'll sit close if the pace is legitimate and produce a strong finish for Joel Rosario and six-time Rachel Alexandra winner Steve Asmussen.
Kellie Reilly: If #3 Santin is even half his 12-1 morning line in the Fair Grounds (G3), I'd view him as value considering his upside in a well-matched field of turf veterans. The Godolphin homebred brings an enticing combination of pedigree (a son of Distorted Humor and the accomplished turf mare Sentiero Italia), trainer strike rate (Brendan Walsh is 20% this meet), and performance (2-for-3 with a second in his Grade 1 debut). Santin's runner-up effort in the Hollywood Derby (G1) can be upgraded since he was flying from post 14, off a slow pace by the frontrunning winner, and he outkicked Chad Brown's 19-10 favorite, Public Sector, who was fourth. What price would Public Sector be here?
Vance Hanson: If it was simply a matter of running him in a race he wasn't absolutely fit for, then Fair Grounds participant #10 Largent deserves the benefit of the doubt for his no-show in last month's Tropical Turf (G3). It was the first time the six-year-old had ever finished worse than second in 11 starts, and he's obviously capable of much better. Though discouraging the Tropical Turf form hasn't worked out (via the winning Clear Vision at least), Largent owns the best piece of overall form via his narrow loss to stablemate Colonel Liam in the 2021 Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) two back. He's listed at 7-2 on the morning line for his second start off the layoff, way more enticing than the 7-10 on offer last time.
Alastair Bull: #8 Smile Happy. First-up runners have a poor record in the Risen Star, but the form out of the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) makes a compelling case for Smile Happy. Three of the horses he thrashed at Churchill Downs – Call Me Midnight, White Abarrio, and Classic Causeway – have won Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby preps since that race.
MUCCIOLO: Tipsheet: 2022 Risen Star Stakes & Pro vs Con Rating
Who are the horse(s) to fade?
JS: Route turf stakes favorites. After burning money as the Colonel E.R. Bradley S. favorite on Jan. 22, coughing up a clear lead in upper stretch to finish third, #11 Two Emmys is listed as the 3-1 early choice in the Fair Grounds. I will try to beat him at short odds. Two Emmys is not in the same form from last summer, and the gelding may not get an easy lead from post 11. In the Albert M. Stall Memorial, #1 Pass the Plate is the 3-1 morning line favorite after getting up to upset the Marie Krantz Memorial, but the late runner doesn't like to string together wins and could leave herself too much to do from off the pace.
KR: There are logical reasons to forecast a move forward for #10 Largent second off the layoff in the Fair Grounds. Indeed, connections were forthright about his needing his comeback run badly. Still, Largent has typically performed better at Gulfstream Park than elsewhere. From a win bet perspective, he strikes me as vulnerable at a short price.
VH: The Rachel Alexandra will mark the first start for #11 Hidden Connection since her sub-par fourth to Echo Zulu in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) in November. A dynamite winner of her first two outings, no real excuse has ever been proffered for her run at Del Mar, and trainer Bret Calhoun reportedly hadn't seen as much to be encouraged about in her training over the winter until her final five-furlong bullet work for this. If there are those type of concerns about whether she's developed much since a juvenile, she's worth standing against at 3-1 or thereabouts.
AB: #1 Pappacap. Maybe I’m a little too judgmental of a horse that finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but it feels like he had his chance in the Lecomte given the pace Epicenter set. It’s also worth noting that none of the six Breeders’ Cup Juvenile contestants that have raced since that day have won a race.
Download: FREE Risen Star S. 2022 Tipsheet & Pro vs Con PDF
What else is worth noting?
JS: Maiden races on the Risen Star Day undercard have been highly productive in recent years, producing more than a handful of graded stakes winners including By My Standards and Mystic Guide, and a quartet of open maiden special weight events are carded Saturday. Runners of interest include #2 Indigo Miss (Race 2), a half-sister to champion Mitole and Grade 1 winner Hot Rod Charlie who will make her career debut; #9 Marsalis (Race 4), a half-brother to recent Sam Houston Ladies Classic (G3) winner Pauline's Pearl and from the immediate female family of 2017 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Always Dreaming; and #5 Vinco (Race 6), a $1.5 million son of Quality Road who looks formidable for Dallas Stewart following a fast-closing second on the Lecomte Day undercard.
KS: For a total wildcard, #7 Turnerloose (12-1) can't be discounted as she tries dirt for the first time in the Rachel Alexandra. I'd half-hoped to see her on the main track last fall. Between her pedigree (by Nyquist and out of an A.P. Indy mare) and her forward style on turf, Turnerloose has every chance to be as effective on dirt. If so, she's a big price for the Cox/Geroux tandem.
VH: #9 Awake At Midnyte is potentially the goods in the Rachel Alexandra for trainer Doug O'Neill, who shipped in Hot Rod Charlie last year to win the Louisiana Derby (G2). Awake At Midnyte is a versatile sort, having run effectively on dirt and turf, sprinting and routing, and is exiting a solid second-place effort in the seven-furlong Santa Ynez (G2). That might have been a bit shorter than she needs, and I look for her to flatter the California form a bit in this spot.
AB: How #10 Slow Down Andy fares. The form from his Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) victory got a huge boost with Messier’s 15-length routing of his opponents in the Robert B. Lewis S. (G3). Californian form came up trumps when Sham S. (G3) winner Newgrange won the Southwest S. (G3); however, he had 2 3/4 lengths in hand over third-place finisher Ben Diesel, who was 6 1/2 lengths behind Smile Happy in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Slow Down Andy’s performance will add more context to the three-year-old pecking order.
TwinSpires Staff
Editor's Note: With the popular segment of 'The Jury' on Jason Beem's weekly podcast, we will extend the idea to a weekly story which aggregates the opinions of our authoritative writers for upcoming racing action. Aside from our regular team of writers, we will feature other members of our stable to chime in with contributions.
The newly-assembled TwinSpires "jury," consisting of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson, are in a deliberative mood as they kick off a new series looking ahead at the weekend stakes action. Here are their thoughts on Saturday's Risen Star Day card at Fair Grounds.
What is your best bet?
James Scully: #1 La Crete enters the Rachel Alexandra (G2) unbeaten from two starts, including a one-length tally in the Jan. 22 Silverbulletday S., but she's been pegged at 8-1 on the morning line after registering 84 and 86 Brisnet Speed ratings. However, lightly-raced horses who haven't been exposed are always eligible to increase their Speed ratings significantly. Last year's three-year-old filly champion, Malathaat, is a perfect example, registering 86 and 92 numbers winning her first two starts in the fall of her juvenile season – her figures have risen to 107 and 108 in the last two outings. La Crete is also just getting started, a promising filly with potentially enormous upside. The daughter of Curlin has been on the lead by default in both starts, but she'll sit close if the pace is legitimate and produce a strong finish for Joel Rosario and six-time Rachel Alexandra winner Steve Asmussen.
Kellie Reilly: If #3 Santin is even half his 12-1 morning line in the Fair Grounds (G3), I'd view him as value considering his upside in a well-matched field of turf veterans. The Godolphin homebred brings an enticing combination of pedigree (a son of Distorted Humor and the accomplished turf mare Sentiero Italia), trainer strike rate (Brendan Walsh is 20% this meet), and performance (2-for-3 with a second in his Grade 1 debut). Santin's runner-up effort in the Hollywood Derby (G1) can be upgraded since he was flying from post 14, off a slow pace by the frontrunning winner, and he outkicked Chad Brown's 19-10 favorite, Public Sector, who was fourth. What price would Public Sector be here?
Vance Hanson: If it was simply a matter of running him in a race he wasn't absolutely fit for, then Fair Grounds participant #10 Largent deserves the benefit of the doubt for his no-show in last month's Tropical Turf (G3). It was the first time the six-year-old had ever finished worse than second in 11 starts, and he's obviously capable of much better. Though discouraging the Tropical Turf form hasn't worked out (via the winning Clear Vision at least), Largent owns the best piece of overall form via his narrow loss to stablemate Colonel Liam in the 2021 Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) two back. He's listed at 7-2 on the morning line for his second start off the layoff, way more enticing than the 7-10 on offer last time.
Alastair Bull: #8 Smile Happy. First-up runners have a poor record in the Risen Star, but the form out of the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) makes a compelling case for Smile Happy. Three of the horses he thrashed at Churchill Downs – Call Me Midnight, White Abarrio, and Classic Causeway – have won Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby preps since that race.
MUCCIOLO: Tipsheet: 2022 Risen Star Stakes & Pro vs Con Rating
Who are the horse(s) to fade?
JS: Route turf stakes favorites. After burning money as the Colonel E.R. Bradley S. favorite on Jan. 22, coughing up a clear lead in upper stretch to finish third, #11 Two Emmys is listed as the 3-1 early choice in the Fair Grounds. I will try to beat him at short odds. Two Emmys is not in the same form from last summer, and the gelding may not get an easy lead from post 11. In the Albert M. Stall Memorial, #1 Pass the Plate is the 3-1 morning line favorite after getting up to upset the Marie Krantz Memorial, but the late runner doesn't like to string together wins and could leave herself too much to do from off the pace.
KR: There are logical reasons to forecast a move forward for #10 Largent second off the layoff in the Fair Grounds. Indeed, connections were forthright about his needing his comeback run badly. Still, Largent has typically performed better at Gulfstream Park than elsewhere. From a win bet perspective, he strikes me as vulnerable at a short price.
VH: The Rachel Alexandra will mark the first start for #11 Hidden Connection since her sub-par fourth to Echo Zulu in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) in November. A dynamite winner of her first two outings, no real excuse has ever been proffered for her run at Del Mar, and trainer Bret Calhoun reportedly hadn't seen as much to be encouraged about in her training over the winter until her final five-furlong bullet work for this. If there are those type of concerns about whether she's developed much since a juvenile, she's worth standing against at 3-1 or thereabouts.
AB: #1 Pappacap. Maybe I’m a little too judgmental of a horse that finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but it feels like he had his chance in the Lecomte given the pace Epicenter set. It’s also worth noting that none of the six Breeders’ Cup Juvenile contestants that have raced since that day have won a race.
Download: FREE Risen Star S. 2022 Tipsheet & Pro vs Con PDF
What else is worth noting?
JS: Maiden races on the Risen Star Day undercard have been highly productive in recent years, producing more than a handful of graded stakes winners including By My Standards and Mystic Guide, and a quartet of open maiden special weight events are carded Saturday. Runners of interest include #2 Indigo Miss (Race 2), a half-sister to champion Mitole and Grade 1 winner Hot Rod Charlie who will make her career debut; #9 Marsalis (Race 4), a half-brother to recent Sam Houston Ladies Classic (G3) winner Pauline's Pearl and from the immediate female family of 2017 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Always Dreaming; and #5 Vinco (Race 6), a $1.5 million son of Quality Road who looks formidable for Dallas Stewart following a fast-closing second on the Lecomte Day undercard.
KS: For a total wildcard, #7 Turnerloose (12-1) can't be discounted as she tries dirt for the first time in the Rachel Alexandra. I'd half-hoped to see her on the main track last fall. Between her pedigree (by Nyquist and out of an A.P. Indy mare) and her forward style on turf, Turnerloose has every chance to be as effective on dirt. If so, she's a big price for the Cox/Geroux tandem.
VH: #9 Awake At Midnyte is potentially the goods in the Rachel Alexandra for trainer Doug O'Neill, who shipped in Hot Rod Charlie last year to win the Louisiana Derby (G2). Awake At Midnyte is a versatile sort, having run effectively on dirt and turf, sprinting and routing, and is exiting a solid second-place effort in the seven-furlong Santa Ynez (G2). That might have been a bit shorter than she needs, and I look for her to flatter the California form a bit in this spot.
AB: How #10 Slow Down Andy fares. The form from his Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) victory got a huge boost with Messier’s 15-length routing of his opponents in the Robert B. Lewis S. (G3). Californian form came up trumps when Sham S. (G3) winner Newgrange won the Southwest S. (G3); however, he had 2 3/4 lengths in hand over third-place finisher Ben Diesel, who was 6 1/2 lengths behind Smile Happy in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Slow Down Andy’s performance will add more context to the three-year-old pecking order.
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