Sunday 2/27/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**joejoe99** · 02-27-2022, 06:58 AM

Pure Lock

10* Montana PK

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-27-2022, 08:24 AM

Laurel Park 5 Facts | February 22-28, 2022

February 22, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Thursday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$12,363 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

None scheduled.

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed (44%, $10.40)

Avg. Speed Last 3 (43%, $12.80)

Best Speed Last 3 (29%, -$12.40) * top-3 factor second straight week *

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: John ‘Jerry’ Robb // last week 14: 6-5-1 (43%, $0.97 ROI) // 8: 5-3-0 with favorites // 6-13 with jockey Xavier Perez

T: John Salzman Jr. // last week 4: 2-0-1 (50%, $2.22 ROI) // $8, $9 winners both in stakes // 2-3 with jockey JD Acosta

T: Damon Dilodovico // last week 4: 2-0-2 (50%, $1.95 ROI) // both $7 winners // 2-3 in sprints

J: Xavier Perez // last week 14: 6-4-1 (43%, $0.97 ROI) // 7: 5-2-0 aboard favorites // 6-13 with trainer Jerry Robb

J: Jamie Rodriguez // last week 6: 3-0-1 (50%, $2.57 ROI) // $3, $11, $15 winners // 2-4 with trainer Jamie Ness

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-27-2022, 08:24 AM

Santa Anita Park 5 Facts | February 22-28, 2022

February 22, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$32,694 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

$75,000 Wishing Well Stakes // filly and mare turf sprinters // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Distance Pedigree (32%, +$87.20)

Best Speed Last 3 (41%, +$28.80)

Speed Last Race (33%, +$16.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Doug O’Neill // last week 12: 3-2-1 (25%, $0.63 ROI) // wins a $4, $4, $5 + pair of 7-1 runners-up

T: Bob Hess Jr. // last week 4: 2-0-0 (50%, $2.13 ROI) // $7, $10 winners // all 4 with Edwin Maldonado

T: Bill Spawr // last week 2: 2-0-0 (100%, $8.70 ROI) // $4, $30 winners – both with Mike Smith // 8: 4-0-2 since Jan. 14

J: Tyler Baze // last week 16: 4-2-2 (25%, $1.09 ROI) // 2-2 with favorites // won for 4 different trainers

J: Edwin Maldonado // last week 10: 3-2-0 (30%, $1.19 ROI) // $6, $7, $10 winners + 26-1 runner-up

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-27-2022, 08:24 AM

Golden Gate Fields 5 Facts | February 22-28, 2022

February 22, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$106,859 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

None scheduled.

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Best Speed Track (37%, +$20.67)

Best Speed Last 3 (33%, -$2.80) * top-3 factor third straight week *

Avg. Speed (31%, -$13.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Jonathan Wong // last week 18: 6-4-1 (33%, $1.66 ROI) // 3-3 with favorites // 16-45 last 3 weeks

T: Tim McCanna // last week 11: 4-2-0 (36%, $1.35 ROI) // all 4 winners paid $8 or less

T: Andy Mathis // last week 7: 2-1-4 (29%, $1.36 ROI) // $7, $11 winners + 8-1 runner-up

J: Pedro Terrero // last week 23: 6-3-2 (25%, $1.05 ROI) // 6: 3-0-2 with favorites // won for 6 different trainers

J: Bryan Pena // last week 9: 3-1-0 (33%, $1.12 ROI) // 6: 3-1-0 with Jonathan Wong // 2-2 with favorites

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-27-2022, 08:24 AM

Gulfstream 5 Facts | February 22-28, 2022

February 22, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

Schedule:

Wednesday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$935,711 ($1.2 million guaranteed pool) // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Wednesday)

Feature Race(s):

$150,000 G3 Royal Delta Stakes // fillies & mares routing on dirt // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Avg. Earnings Track (36%, +$7.60)

Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed (34%, +$7.40)

Best Speed last 3 (29%, -$17.00) * top-3 factor second straight week *

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Rohan Crichton // last week 7: 5-0-1 (71%, $3.33 ROI) // $14, $17 winners top payouts // 2-2 with Irad Ortiz Jr.

T: Ronald Abrams // last week 3: 3-0-0 (100%, $17.83 ROI) // $4, $39, $63 winners // 2 turf allowance wins

T: Ralph Nicks // last week 3: 2-1-0 (67%, $1.97 ROI) // wins at $5, $6 + runner-up at 4-1 // all with Tyler Gaffalione aboard

J: Tyler Gaffalione // last week 26: 7-3-5 (27%, $2.17 ROI) // $17, $63 winners top payouts // only rode 3 favorites (2 wins)

J: Emisael Jaramillo // last week 10: 3-1-3 (30%, $2.03 ROI) // $14, $21 winners top payouts + 8-1 runner-up

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-27-2022, 08:25 AM

Oaklawn Picks: Arkansas Bred, The Mary Rose on February 27
By J.N. Campbell

Oaklawn Park Picks - Sunday, February 27, 2022

Race 1: 5-6-4-8
Race 2: 4-7-2-3
Race 3: 5-1-7-2
Race 4: 1-7-3-8
Race 5: 11-6-4-7
Race 6: 12-5-9-3
Race 7: 2-7-9-4
Race 8: 1-2-5-3
Race 9: 11-8-1-4
**Most Likely Winner: Ghaaleb The Great #2 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Special Pryce #5 (Race 3)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 7: Ghaaleb the Great #2, 5/1):

Here is an Illinois bred that I hope can stay around 5/1 on the tote come post time. I am not sure it is going to happen, but one can dare to dream. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer claimed this mare by Ghaaleb from Scott Becker, who made this female into a pretty solid runner. Prior to her 2nd place finish last time out (the same level she is running at today), she ran at Oaklawn, Fairmount Park, and Hawthorne. Some of those races were quite good, and I expect that her new outfit can get even more out of her. I thought that effort she gave in the 2nd half of that 30 Jan. race was excellent. Maybe not winning was just the ticket! Let’s go after this one, and hope she gets overlooked with top rider, Francisco Arrieta, back aboard.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #2

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 3: Special Pryce #5, 6/1):

Trainer Tom Swearingen does not have an expansive barn, but when he enters … he competes ably. I like his gelding by Warrior’s Reward because during this Meet he has met all challenges with aplomb. Back in December, he started in Clm20kn2L and ended up 2nd at massive odds—60/1. Then his conditioner brought him back in the new year in mid-January in a Clm30kn2L, and he won late in the game by a neck. Now, stepping up once again, Swearingen continues to roll the class dice; this time in Clm30kn3L … I would expect this talented runner to be able to do more, and I like the move to add Luis Q. He is a jockey with a vast amount of experience, and if he can put his mount in the right spot (by the top of the lane), then this could be a fabulous pick.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #5 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 1 1/16th, OC80k, F&M 4+):

Casting an eye over this race's form, the “feature,” you will quickly notice that based on the M/L, Robertino Diodoro has what looks like a good one in W W Fitzy #5. He claimed this 6-yr-old mare by Well Positioned from the Contreras Barn back in mid-December, and promptly entered her in the Pippin S. $150k. That was a tough group to go up against, and included older females like Coach and Miss Bigly. With a game 3rd in that “Non-G,” Diodoro then dropped her into an OC30k, and she ran off with the prize. At this point, I am willing to admit that she looks promising, but I don’t think she really deserves to be 2/1. I would rather venture elsewhere, and look for a pair of other runners that I think are able to conquer in this race. When it comes to my top 2 selections, I am keen on John Ortiz’s The Mary Rose #1 and Lynn Chleborad’s Blessed Again #2. They are both drawn towards the rail, and possess solid routing ability. The former is a Shortleaf homebred Arkansas bred, which is rare in spots like these. These types just do not go well in open company. The talented young rider, Reylu Gutierrez, is in-town from the Fair Grounds, and will be aggressive early on. Ortiz is a master trainer, and is bringing his charge back to Oaklawn after running well-back of Asmussen’s Pauline’s Pearl in the G3 Houston Ladies Classic. Speaking of conditioning ability, how about Chleborad? She is experienced, and one to root for … right now, she is still looking for her 1st score of the Meet. She is switching to Tiago Pereira, and maybe he can help get this one home. A mare by Paynter, she has the gears to keep up, if she can break well. Let’s use all 3 of these entries in an Exacta Box, and see if we can load up for a major score!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Box, 1/2/5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-27-2022, 08:25 AM

Ballarat racing tips, top odds & quaddie | Sunday, February 27
February 25, 2022 10:57 am.
James Herbert

What Ballarat Races
Where Ballarat Turf Club – 240 Kennedys Rd, Miners Rest VIC 3352
When Sunday, February 27, 2022
First Race 12:45pm AEDT
Watch Live
Sky Racing Watch Live
Sportsbet

Streaming Live at Sportsbet

Ballarat Turf Club has an eight-race card scheduled on Sunday afternoon and Horsebetting’s Victorian tipping expert has gone through the card and found his best bets and free quaddie picks. The track is rated a Good 4, with the rail coming out an extra 3m to the 6m mark for this meeting and considering jockeys were angling off the fence last week when it was out 3m, we expect a similar pattern to happen on Sunday. Racing at Ballarat is set to commence at 12:45pm AEDT.
Best Best at Ballarat – Kentucky Casanova

We were with the Michael Huglin-trained Kentucky Casanova when he ran second in a BM78 at Sale on February 13 and the step back to BM70 grade looks ideal for him here. The four-year-old Artie Schiller gelding has never run at 1400m, but in a field that looks to lack any depth, he should handle the step up in distance with great aplomb. Brett Prebble sticks on board which is a massive bonus and from barrier two will look to give the bay gelding the suck run in transit. Having not finished worse than third in his six career starts, while picking up three wins along the way, we know he is as honest as they come, and Kentucky Casanova should prove a class above this field.
Best Bet
Race 8 – Kentucky Casanova (#1)
$2.90 with Neds
Next Best at Ballarat – Sumatra

The James Cummings-trained Sumatra comes to a Ballarat maiden following a less than ideal run in the Blue Diamond Prelude (F). Prior to the effort in the Prelude, the two-year-old Lonhro filly was beaten just over a length when chasing home Counttheheadlights who goes around in the Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes on Saturday as an $18 chance. That form line is good enough for us, considering the filly is the only one with any race day experience going around in this event. We’ll concede there is a lot of the unknown about her rivals, but with Group 1 form coming into this she looks the one to beat. From barrier one, we expect Damien Oliver to be positive from the barriers and have her tracking the speed. Her turn of foot is more than good enough for a race like this, and we are happy to take the $2.90 on offer at online Bookmakers.
Next Best
Race 2 – Sumatra (#9)
$2.90 with Ladbrokes
Best Value at Ballarat – Salem

Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott send last start Kilmore place-getter Salem to the Ballarat 1200m having been run down late over the 1107m on February 10. As is the case with the stable, the three-year-old Hinchinbrook gelding is a natural front runner and looks set to gain an uncontested lead throughout the 1200m event. We expect Jordan Childs will look to gain a couple of cheap sectionals out in front and if he is successful in doing so, Salem should be able to offer a kick in the home straight, much the same as he did at Kilmore. The extra 100m should suit him and considering he is deemed a $17 chance with Sportsbet, he looks a great each-way play in this.
Best Value
Race 4 – Salem (#6)
$17 with Sportsbet
Sunday quaddie tips for Ballarat
Ballarat quadrella selections
Leg 1: 2-3-5
Leg 2: 1-6-7-10
Leg 3: 1-6-9-12
Leg 4: 1-2-12
Investment: $144 for 100%

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-27-2022, 08:25 AM

Mudgee racing tips & quaddie picks | Sunday, February 27
February 25, 2022 3:47 pm.
Nicholas Lloyd

What Mudgee Races
Where Mudgee Racecourse – Ulan Rd, Bombira NSW 2850
When Sunday, February 27, 2022
First Race 12:55pm AEDT
Feature Race Race 7: CDRA Country Championships Qualifier (1400m)
Watch Live
Sky Racing Watch Live
Sportsbet

Streaming Live at Sportsbet

The Country Championships head to Mudgee on Sunday for the fifth heat of the $1.6 million race series, which is the feature event on the eight-race card. HorseBetting’s New South Wales racing analyst presents you with his best bets and quaddie numbers for the program, as well as his preview of the $150,000 Central Districts qualifier. The track is rated a Good 4, the rail is in the true position for the entire course, and the first race of the day is set to jump at 12:55pm AEDT.
CDRA Country Championships Qualifier – Zoo Station

We have always had a good opinion of Gayna Williams’ Zoo Station, and she hasn’t really let us down yet, winning four of her 10 starts. The five-year-old by Animal Kingdom was brilliant when resuming to win a Class 3 Highway at Rosehill while defeating Golden Point, who won last Saturday’s Highway. The mare was narrowly beaten at Warwick Farm on Australia Day over 1400m and has since won a trial in Open company, so she should be hard to beat in this. Anthony Cavallo knows the horse well, and most importantly, the pair have drawn favourably in barrier eight. This looks hers for the taking.
Country Championships Qualifier
Race 7 – Zoo Station (#11)
$2.30 with Sportsbet
Best Bet at Mudgee – Yardstick

Jason Deamer and Christian Reith combine in the fourth race of the day with four-year-old gelding Yardstick. The son of Criterion went around at the Gold Coast two starts ago and ran fifth behind The Ritz and Palladas in a very competitive Class 4 Plate that has already had the form franked since. He then went to Randwick on February 5 and led throughout before finishing sixth behind Arctic Thunder and Fleetwood Maca, which is certainly good enough for this. He should make his own luck from in front, which will make him very hard to catch as he drops back sharply in grade to a Class 1 & Maiden Showcase Plate.
Best Bet
Race 4 – Yardstick (#11)
$2.70 with Sportsbet
Next Best at Mudgee – Deel With Me

It’s not often that you see Hugh Bowman head to Mudgee, so when he pops up on a handy galloper, it is hard to ignore. Deel With Me comes through the same last-start run as Yardstick, but he had a few issues that day when favourite which saw him pull up and run last. The son of Dundeel has trialled since where he ran last, but that was to be expected over 801m, so we aren’t looking too much into that. The Bjorn Baker-trained four-year-old drops from a Benchmark 78 back to a Benchmark 66, so he is very well placed and should win.
Next Best
Race 5 – Deel With Me (#4)
$2.50 with Sportsbet
Best Value at Mudgee – Tycoon Charger

In the opening race of the day, Matthew Smith and Grant Buckley combine with Tycoon Charger. The three-year-old colt has had just two starts, finishing in the minor money at both Goulburn and Taree. On debut, the son of Charge Forward closed off very well as a $51 chance over 1000m back in September, and Smith elected to put him straight into the paddock after that and get him ready for this campaign. First-up, Tycoon Charger started even money at Taree and closed off well again to run third over 1250m. He should get a good run from barrier three and take some beating.
Best Value
Race 1 – Tycoon Charger (#2)
$7 with Sportsbet
Sunday quaddie tips for Mudgee
Mudgee quadrella selections
Leg 1: 2-4-5
Leg 2: 5-6-7-9
Leg 3: 5-6-11
Leg 4: 1-3-10
Investment: $108 for 100%

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-27-2022, 08:26 AM

Today’s Free Horse Picks – Sunday, February 27th 2022
By Reggie Garrett

We are covering 6 tracks on Sunday, February 27th, 2022. Reggie Garrett has his picks for each race at Gulfstream Park, Golden Gate Fields, Aqueduct and more. Good luck and enjoy!

Aqueduct – 12:50 ET
Race 1: 3 School of Thought
Race 2: 4 Got the Gold
Race 3: 5 Free Enterprise
Race 4: 3 Regal Empire
Race 5: 2 Awesome Indra
Race 6: 5 Lucky Brody
Race 7: 1 Repo Rocks
Race 8: 5 Byhubbyhellomoney
Race 9: 8 Barista Vixen

Golden Gate Fields – 12:45 PT
Race 1: 3 Marzanna
Race 2: 1 Seguro
Race 3: 4 Swanee
Race 4: 4 Bandeena
Race 5: 7 Zero Bucks Given
Race 6: 2 Hey Mate
Race 7: 6 Slam Dunk Sermon
Race 8: 1 Maybe Sometime

Gulfstream Park – 12:30 ET
Race 1: 12 Fishing for Fun
Race 2: 2 Gemonteer
Race 3: 5 Stormy Stella
Race 4: 3 Ring Run
Race 5: 5 All Around
Race 6: 5 Danger
Race 7: 6 Queen Camilla
Race 8: 2 Mrbobby Brightside
Race 9: 7 Microphone
Race 10: 1 Real Talk
Race 11: 5 Lady Puchi

Oaklawn Park – 1:00 CT
Race 1: 4 Abdan
Race 2: 2 Candywrapper Crazy
Race 3: 7 Marvin
Race 4: 4 Gem Key
Race 5: 11 Tiz McNamara
Race 6: 5 Pacific Grove
Race 7: 1 Kasserine Pass
Race 8: 6 Candura
Race 9: 11 Forsaken

Santa Anita Park – 12:30 PT
Race 1: 5 Witch Moon
Race 2: 2 Red Panty Night
Race 3: 3 Quantum Quest
Race 4: 6 Silent Beauty
Race 5: 1 Circulodeganadoras
Race 6: 5 Cayton Kid
Race 7: 4 Triple Tap
Race 8: 6 Hapi Hapi

Tampa Bay Downs – 12:13 ET
Race 1: 2 Smooth as Glass
Race 2: 4 El Samuro
Race 3: 6 Telecast
Race 4: 2 Melina’s Dream
Race 5: 5 Hidden Stash
Race 6: 7 Tiz Herself
Race 7: 2 Mr. Kringle
Race 8: 10 Venerate
Race 9: 6 Digital Asset

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-27-2022, 08:26 AM

Aqueduct Picks: Class dropper in R5 on February 27
By J.N. Campbell

Aqueduct Picks - Sunday, February 27, 2022

Race 1: 3-1-2-5
Race 2: 6-2-4-3
Race 3: 4-2-1-3
Race 4: 3-1-7-5
Race 5: 6-7-2-4
Race 6: 4-6-2-5
Race 7: 2-3-1-5
Race 8: 3-11-5-2
Race 9: 4-3-9-8
**Most Likely Winner: Secret Love #3 (Race 8)**
**Best Value: Spun D’Etat #6 (Race 5)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 8: Secret Love #3, 5/1):

Back in 2021, this filly by Not This Time, for the most part, ran nicely in some tough “Non-G” Co. She moved from an AOC event to win the Franklin Square Stakes at Aqueduct that January. Other races followed, and by the end of May, it was time for John Kimmel to shut her down. Now, she comes off the shelf, ready for action. I like her in this spot because the field is not tough at all, and she gets the experience of Trevor McCarthy. It will be great to see her maturity and progression. As to the question of “readiness,” she has obviously been working towards a return; not missing one 4F clocking in the past 2 months.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #3

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 5: Spun d’Etat #6, 5/1):

At the claiming levels, you can back a runner that is going up the class ladder or going down … some maintain the same, of course. In Race 5, I am going to back Ralph D’Alessandro’s filly by Hard Spun. She was an Ed Barker trainee that was in way over her head running in OC62.5k with conditions. Her new barn tried to continue that heading, and once again, they came upon some rocky shoals. Coming to their senses, this one is getting some much-needed class relief. With Trevor McCarthy in the saddle, and a strong level of fitness in-tow, I think she is a good wager. The question will be, how much is she going to be bet down … I am sure other ‘cappers will recognize this angle …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #6 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 7: Dirt, 6F, OC62.5kn2x, 4+):

One of the best races in North America on Sunday might be this tough sprint going 6F … A high-level conditioned OC contest, there are several storylines that are worth looking into here. Several ‘cappers will recognize the name of trainer Juan Vazquez, who has come under fire for poor practices. His gelding Repo Rocks #1 will be formidable, and backed at the windows based on the number he posted last out in the G3 Toboggan S. (2nd). With Ruben Silvera aboard again, there is no question that this gelding can get to the winner’s circle. I am against this entry, and will seek some value instead. Going right next door, I really like the look of Oscar Barrera’s Fast Getaway #2. Ridden by the excellent Jackie Davis, this 7-yr-old is not without merit, as the gelding has competed against OC80k-types in his career. Davis is an aggressive rider, and her mount was claimed by Barrera from the barn of Mike Maker. These connections have a double-digit odds runner on their hands … and I like it. A couple of others that I can use on a ticket are Jeremiah O’Dwyer’s Sibelius #3 and George Weaver’s Peruvian Boy #5. Both of these entries won last time out, and they both could be forwardly placed. Let’s create a Superfecta Wheel bet that can bring all of these runners together. There is nothing like a well-matched field … betting aplenty!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Superfecta, 2 w 1/3/5 w 1/3/5 w 1/3/5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-27-2022, 08:28 AM

Today's Horse Racing Tips: Sunday February 27th
Stephen Harris
bettingexpert Racing editor

Today’s Racing Tips – February 27th

There are 3 meetings in Britain and Ireland on Sunday, with high class jumps action at Naas supported by some competitive fare at Fontwell and Hereford. The Grade 2 Bet Victor Novice hurdle is the best race of the afternoon at 3.00pm, with some high class two milers from the top Eire yards sure to be declared.
Today’s Daily Nap

Brewin’upastorm

Fontwell 2:50 pm

Olly Murphy’s stayer showed this course and distance suited him ideally when winning this valuable prize in 2021, and he arrives here on the back of a gutsy win in deep ground at Lingfield (form well franked since by the exploits of the close third Goshen).

Odds: 3.25
Today’s Value Angle

Alkopop

Fontwell 2:20 pm

Toby Lawes has enjoyed a terrific season, and this useful handicapper shaped a lot better than the bare result when only fifth at Ffos Las last time out (soon in a poor early position and made a couple of mistakes at the wrong time).

Odds: 5.0

Odds are best odds available as at 4pm February 26th 2022. Odds may now differ.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-27-2022, 08:28 AM

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Sunday, February 27
Posted on February 26, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 3: ARISTOCRATIC (#3)

Likely favorite Happy Farm drops down to the lowest claiming tag he’s tried since he hit his peak for Jason Servis back in 2019. He’s actually run some nice races for other trainers since then, but he’s had trouble staying on the track, needing plenty of time between starts. This gelding threw in a rare bad effort last time for Wayne Potts, though he was facing a much tougher field. He now goes out for Rudy Rodriguez, who is 28 for 88 (32%, $2.06 ROI) first off the claim in dirt sprints at Aqueduct over the past 5 years. Happy Farm should sit a good stalking trip just off the speedy Aristocratic, and will be tough with his good effort. He’ll be a much shorter price than the other two class droppers in this race. Mr Phil and Free Enterprise are both dropping down after facing some tougher fields in their recent past. I liked some of Free Enterprise’s form from last year, but his most recent effort at Finger Lakes was poor. That said, Jeffrey Englehart’s runners have been firing lately at this meet. I’m going with the likely leader. Aristocratic is moving back up in class after winning off the claim for Charlton Baker last time. That was a very game effort, as he set an honest pace and held sway late. Yet it did come against weaker company, so he likely has to improve again on the class rise. Charlton Baker is in the midst of a strong meet, and this horse has back races that fit at this level. He did go off form for much of 2021, but was in a low-percentage barn during that time. He appears to be the controlling speed and he isn’tt one to give up without a fight, as he showed last time.

RACE 5: GREATEST LOVE (#4)

Few horses on the circuit have been as popular at the claim box as Saratoga Beauty. She now goes first off the claim for a new barn for the ninth consecutive start. Rob Atras takes her this time, and he’s had this mare before, including when she won with a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure back in November. It does feel like she’s taken a step forward recently. Her last two fast track starts have resulted in blowout wins at a similar level to this. The one question mark is that she’s excelled going 7 furlongs, and now she’s going a furlong shorter than that. She’s the one to beat, but figures to be a short price. I like a couple of alternatives. Awesome Indra was twice beaten by today’s favorite last fall, but has since run better in two recent starts. She won for Ray Handal two back at a lower level, and now has been claimed back by that barn out of her last race. Handal is 8 for 47 (17%, $2.40 ROI) first off the claim in dirt sprints over the past 5 years. She was wide against a rail bias early that day, but did drift down inside late as she faded. She’s one of many who wants to be forwardly placed here, but at least she’s shown the ability to stalk on occasion. My top pick is Greatest Love. If you want a closer in a field loaded with speed, this filly is probably it. She made a nice late run on Oct. 29 after losing focus when possibly getting hit in the face with a rival rider’s whip at the quarter pole. Her form has been spotty since then, but she’s had some excuses. She was wide against a rail bias two back, and last time was going too far over a wet surface she may not appreciate. The Linda Rice barn has been pretty cold at this meet, but this one didn’t run that badly for her last time and should get a great setup.

RACE 8: BYHUBBYHELLOMONEY (#5)

There are a couple of interesting runners returning from lengthy layoffs in this New York-bred optional claiming affair. Betsy Blue and Secret Love were the top two finishers in last year’s Bouwerie. That was the last time we saw Secret Love, though Betsy Blue ran four times at this level after that victory, hitting the board without winning each time. This is Betsy Blue’s first start since September, and Linda Rice doesn’t have great stats off layoffs like this. That said, she lands in a race where the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, so she should get a decent setup. The other drawback is that the barn has been cold at this meet and she could go favored here. Secret Love goes out for another barn that doesn’t have particularly strong stats off layoffs such as this. That said, she ran well in most of her prior starts, throwing in just one clunker when asked to go a mile last February. Her other efforts are all good ones, and she won her career debut impressively, so perhaps she’ll do well fresh. Yet I think there are a couple of horses coming out of a different race who merit consideration. Linda Rice’s other horse Beautiful Karen finished ahead of a few of today’s rivals in that Feb. 6 race at this level, but she got a great trip setting the pace on the best part of the track. I prefer Byhubbyhellomoney out of that affair and she is my top pick. This filly has tried a variety of distances over the past year, but I do think she’s best as a closing sprinter. She raced in the bridle last time but had to briefly wait for room on the far turn and just had too much to do late in a race dominated by horses who were forward and inside. That was her first start with Lasix, and now Bob Dunham adds blinkers, so perhaps further improvement is forthcoming. I also wouldn’t totally dismiss Happy Sophia from that same race. She stayed on well for fourth after a 3- to 4-wide trip, and has outrun her odds on more than one occasion over the past few months.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-27-2022, 08:29 AM

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 4 Analysis-$15,000 Guaranteed Pool

February 27, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

Tonight, Pompano Park has an 8-race program scheduled. The popular 0.50 Pick 4 starts in Race 5. The sequence has a $15,000 guaranteed pool with a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5

6-Rebellious (9/2)-This race features two 8-year-olds who have made dozens of trips to the PPk winner's circle. This Deter's trainee took control in last and sizzled the 3/4's in 122.4. Looking for an encore but loses Wally to #7.
7-Priarie Panther (5/2)-Winner of 5 straight has captured 32 of 53 starts in south Florida and should be battling the one above to the wire.

Race 6

1-Ohio Prince (5/2)-Will respect connections despite the 1-10 record at the Pomp. There isn't a true standout in this field. Willing to rely on Miller to provide a sharp steer and to get into striking range.
2-A Good Chance A (2-1)-This 11-year-old should like the company but will need the right set-up to cash the top check. Holliday will look to get on the engine, and if he steals a quarter it could be picture time.
6-Stening A (12-1)-Taking a swing this barn is heating up and the fractions will be lively. The price should be right and if Stalbaum finds a live cover flow an upset could be in the cards.

Race 7

1-Another Daily Copy (5-1)-Nine-year-old is in good form and willing to use from the rail. Has enough speed to stay near the lead and looks like a trip-out candidate at a fair price.
5-My House (7-1)-Lost all chance in last after breaking stride and that habit is an issue. But has the speed to beat this crew and drew well. Could surprise if Shetler works a smooth trip.
6-Double Metal (3-1)-Smoked the field on 11-21 in a 149.4 mile and then had 2 more starts. Was put away after a win on 12-5 and now returns. Comes off 2 decent qualifiers and the winner of 6 out of 10 at the Pomp is the one to beat if ready to bring a top try off the bench.

Race 8

1-Movie Star (9/2)-Beat a couple from this field in last as Hennessey landed in the pocket and made the most of an efficient trip. The same script could work here.
9-Stonebridge Rocks (3-1)-Winner of 2 straight moves up again and best to not overlook. Has the gate speed to be forwardly placed and the Plano barn keeps rolling along.
10-Payne For Pres (5/2)-Has beaten this kind without having the lead off the gate. This post makes it more difficult, but Miller could follow #1, and could end up with a decent early seat.

0.50 Pick 4

6,7/1,2,6/1,5,6/1,9,10
Total Bet=$27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-27-2022, 08:30 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary - 2-27-22

February 27, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 6-Accoustic Shadow; 5-Witch Moon

Forecast: Acoustic Shadow and Witch Moon finished a neck apart when two-three in a similar maiden claimer over this course and distance last month and will get most of the play in this six-runner event that offers little else to embrace. ‘Shadow is a nine-race maiden while ‘Moon has had 12 chances, so neither can be trusted, but we’ll operate under the assumption will be one or the other and it may just come down to which can navigate the best trip. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise leave alone.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:02 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Little Rachel; 3-Win This Vow; 2-Red Panty Night

Forecast: Little Rachel (TOC=3/5; ML=8/5) had a right to be a tad short when second as the favorite in a similar starter optional claimer in her first start in 11 months earlier this season. With that tightener behind her, the lightly-raced mare should be fitter, tighter, and the logical top pick despite her disadvantageous rail post position. Based strictly on speed figures, she deserves her 8/5 morning line status. With This Vow (TOC=7/2; ML=4-1) is worth including on your ticket as well. In her third start following a long layoff, the R. Ellis-trained mare adds blinkers for the first time while returning to a dirt track she’s won on in the past. It wouldn’t be surprising to see her on the lead from the get-go. Red Panty Night (TOC=6-1; ML=4-1) has rising speed figures and probably has another forward move or two in her. She’s protected in a sign of confidence and is worth including somewhere on your ticket.

Notable Workouts:

Red Panty Night (February 12, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h). Grade: B
A tad high-headed but worked well for Mulhall, splits of :24 flat and :36.2 from the quarter pole to the seven furlong pole while being ridden in the late stages. Earned a good number when breaking her maiden for $20,000 at Los Alamitos in December and appears to have further improvement in her.
View Workout Video

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RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: C
Use (in order of preference): 1-Crossword; 2-Big Flame; 5-Gator Shining

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf sprint requires a spread strategy in rolling exotic play, with half of the six-runner field capable of winning, so it’s a pass race for us other than what we’ll need to use in our rolling exotics. Crossword (TOC=2-1; ML=9/5) is winless in seven starts over the Santa Anita turf course but a recent runner-up at this level charts well in this affair so we’ll put him slightly on top and hope that he can use his rail post to good advantage. He may be quick enough to make the running and if he can, his chances will increase. Big Flame (TOC=6-1; ML=3-1), freshened since November, exits a pair of tougher races and has back numbers that put him in the hunt. Recent workouts look sharp, so we’re expecting a big effort from the son of Mr. Big. Gator Shining (TOC=5/2; ML=6-1) , in the frame in his last three starts, returns from the Bay Area and could be a late threat. At 6-1 on the morning line, he’s worth tossing in somewhere.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:10 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 4-Loma Vista; 5-Ardis

Forecast: Loma Vista finished steadily to be fourth in a stronger (and productive) high-priced maiden claiming sprint last time out and today drops for the money run while stretching out to a distance that should be well within her range. Based on our pace projection, the daughter of Midnight Storm should be on or near a comfortable early pace and then have her chance to kick home when called upon. Ardis ran evenly and galloped out well in her debut sprinting on dirt (the same race that Loma Vista exits) but the flopped as the favorite when tried on grass last time out. Back on the main track and with the always-popular two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern, the daughter of Mohaymen can be expected to produce a significant forward move. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play, with the main push going to Loma Vista.

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RACE 5: Post: 2:43 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Hot On the Trail; 1-Circulodeganadoras; 3-Discernment

Forecast: The first leg of the late Pick-5 is a messy affair for bottom-rung $10,000 claiming fillies and mares over a mile on dirt. Let’s take a shot with a closer in a race in which the early pace projects to be contested and faster than par. Hot On the Trail (TOC=4-1; ML=8-1), listed at 8-1 on the morning line, was claimed back by trainer L. Ruiz in a sign of confidence last time out and should improve today with the stretch-out in trip and a favorable pace scenario. She has won over this track and distance in the past, retains T. Baze, and will be doing her best work late. Circulodeganadaros (TOC=6-1; ML=3-1); is a committed front runner from the Bay Area fresh from a sprint win for $8,000 and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics stretching out from the rail. We’ll see how much heat she needs to fend off and how far she can lead the way. Discernment (TOC=7/2; ML=4-1) , a game runner-up under these conditions earlier this month, always has preferred to run second or third (11 times) than win (three times) but a repeat of her last race gives her something of a look.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: X
Single: 7-Marie

Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claiming $20,000 fillies and mares sprint five and one-half furlongs in a race that should be won by the morning line favoriteMarie. She makes her first start since her debut in November of 2020 when she finished sixth in a strong maiden-special-weight turf sprint, and the five-year-old daughter of Blame is realistically spotted upon her return by trainer J. Sadler, who has powerful stats (26%) with the layoff angle. A sharp series of workouts should have her plenty fit, and with the presence of the stable’s “go-to” rider J. Hernandez in the saddle, it all adds up. She may wind up too short on the tote to play in the win pool, but we can use her a logical rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Marie (January 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
Saw her last month in a solo main track five furlong drill, splits of :11.2 and :36.1 for the final three furlongs, mild coaxing only, nice move for J. Sadler. On the comeback trail and is eligible to return in a soft spot.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Post: 3:47 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Triple Tap; 2-Shaaz

Forecast: B. Baffert holds the aces in this extended sprint for second-level allowance older horses. Triple Tap (TOC=8/5; ML3/5) is the morning line favorite at 3/5 – that’s who Johnny V. clearly prefers – and the half-brother to American Pharoah seems have noticeably improved in recent workouts after being freshened since opening day. Stable mateShaaz (TOC=4/5; ML=2-1), who just finished second at 1/5 but was moved up to first via disqualification and thus remains perfect in two starts, has more tactical speed than ‘Tap but at this seven furlong trip we suspect ‘Tap will prove the stronger of the two late. The analytics actually prefer Shaaz, so we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics with the main punch going to Triple Tap.

Notable Workouts:

Shaaz (January 29, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade B
Left the pole outside Spielberg (same time) for Baffert and then was joined on the far turn from the outside by Set Sail, (4f, :49.1h) splits of :12.1, :23.3, :35 flat and 1:00.1, never really asked much but as usual showing a tendency to lug in through the lane. Plenty of talent but still a little green. Getting better.
View Workout Video

Triple Tap (February 19, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:11.4h). Grade: B+
In company outside As Time Goes By (same time) and looked very good, best we’ve seen him, splits of :11.2, :24.2 and :48 flat for the three furlong pole to the seven furlong pole, some late coaxing while drawing clear late by more than a length after breezing to the wire. Freshened since opening day and appears to have improved. Workmate had to be ridden in the stretch to stay even but dropped back late and noticeably second best.
View Workout Video

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RACE 8: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 5-Secret Club: 7-If Id Told You

Forecast: The nightcap is a mile grass affair for entry-level allowance California-bred older horses. We’ll try to get by using just two in our rolling exotics. Secret Club (TOC=3/5; ML=9/5) removes blinkers, plummets in class to his lowest level ever, is reunited with Johnny V., and should be along in time in a race that projects to have quick enough early splits to compliment his closing style. The other main contender is If Id Told You (TOC=6-1; ML=8-1), a non-threatening eighth in a sprint tune-up earlier this month in his first start in nearly two years. The G. Mandella-trained gelding seems certain to produce a forward move, and while he’ll need a career-top effort to win we think he could easily do so with a projected second flight, stalking trip.