Saturday 3/12/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:11 AM

Race of the Week: San Luis Rey at Santa Anita | Satiurday, 3/12

March 9, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

GRADE 3 $125,000 SAN LUIS REY STAKES AT SANTA ANITA

The Lead:
After a $334 score in this space last week for the Big 'Cap, we'll keep it at Santa Anita for this week's featured race. The Grade 3 $125,000 San Luis Rey Stakes is at 1-1/2 miles on turf, and it's a race that surprisingly has eluded the trainers in this year's field. That changes Saturday in Race 9 to conclude the card, and it's our job to figure out who takes home the trophy for the first time.

Field Depth:
G1 winners SAY THE WORD and HENLEY'S JOY are joined by G2 victors RED KING, ACCLIMATE and AWARD WINNER in a race much deeper than its G3 moniker. The remaining quartet will have a serious class challenge to overcome this group of accomplished foes.

Pace:
ACCLIMATE has been the west coast turf marathon pace for years and nothing likely changes Saturday. He'll get company up front from AWARD WINNER and insure a fair pace, while DICEY MO CHARA on the stretch-out could sit third or apply a bit more pressure. This pace should be fair to mid-pack and closers.

Our Eyes:
SAY THE WORD was a narrow runner-up in this race last year to the classy United and his 1-1/2 miles turf record speaks volumes vs. these. He's 6: 3-2-1 over a trip that the other 8 starters are a woeful 15: 0-1-2 combined. As class tends to shine and prevail the longer they run, in general, coupling SAY THE WORD's class with his distance acumen looks like a strong bond in this race. He's the heavy lean under Flavien Prat, who has ridden the San Luis Rey Stakes winner the past 2 years and seeks the hat trick.

Chances are, if you're going to beat SAY THE WORD, it's with an opposite running style. United dueled ACCLIMATE in this race last year when SAY THE WORD couldn't get to him. If that's the case, then AWARD WINNER stands the best upset chance. He'll be right up on the mix with ACCLIMATE and has been freshened since November's Hollywood Turf Cup when fourth behind those 2 return rivals. Jockey Juan Hernandez has been riding well all meet and should have AWARD WINNER in position if he's ready and good enough.

HENLEY'S JOY is the X-factor. The $1.1 million earner won the G1 Belmont Derby Invitational in 2019, but went winless in 2020 and 2021. In fact, he's lost 17 races in a row since that signature career victory. Those Ls came for trainers MIke Maker and Steve Asmussen; this will be his first attempt since coming west to the barn of Richard Baltas, who has been SoCal's top long-distance grass barn in recent years. His morning moves watched at XBTV.com have all been on the SA training track, so there's uncertainty how he'll adapt to grass here.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
SAY THE WORD relishes the trip that the others have yet to conquer.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
OFFLEE NAUGHTY has only made 7 starts, so his ceiling may be less realized than many of these 6 and 8-year-old veterans. He partner with John Velazquez, and that never hurts your chances.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win SAY THE WORD. If the price drops too short to play straight up for your liking, work AWARD WINNER underneath in exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:11 AM

Top Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 12, 2022
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing

Oaklawn Park, Santa Anita Park, and Tampa Bay Downs all bring us competitions to please our Saturday horseracing appetites.

The buffet even offers ungraded and graded stakes races, including the highlight of the day—the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade II), one of the Championship Series qualifying races for the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

Of the eleven races I assess for Saturday’s picks, more than half of them yielded underdog moneymakers. Winning!

I know it’s tempting to jump right down to my picks but be sure to check out the full race-cards and all your wagering options at one of our recommended online racebooks.

Good luck!
My Saturday Picks for Oaklawn Park

Let’s start on the dirt track with race four, a 1-1/16 miles allowance optional claiming run for three-year-olds.

The favorite in this race posted an impressive speed figure in her single career start, but I’m betting my two dollars on the 7/2 second-favored Barossa, ridden by Ricardo Santana, Jr.

This colt finished four of his six career starts in the money, one of them a win. After his maiden graduation victory last October at Santa Anita on his third attempt, he finished ninth out of eleven in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade I) at Del Mar in November.
Shortly thereafter, Barossa redeemed himself with a third-place finish in the Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade II) at Los Alamitos in December. In this otherwise lightly experienced six-horse field, he’s the rock star.

Rodolphe Brisset trains Barossa for owners SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, Golconda Stable, and Siena Farm LLC.

Race eight is a six-furlong allowance optional claiming race for four-year-olds and upward. I like the 5/2 morning-line favorite for this one: Saffa’s Day, piloted by Florent Geroux.

This four-year-old colt moneyed five of his nine career starts, winning three, including his last two. He notably finished fourth out of ten in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes (Listed) in December 2020, just prior to breaking his maiden here at Oaklawn in January 2021.

Longtime horseracing veteran Rene Amescua trains Saffa’s Day for owner Tom Kagele.

Race nine is the Azeri Stakes (Grade II), a $350,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles run on the dirt track for fillies and mares four years old and upward. This looks like a battle between the morning-line’s top two choices, and my money’s on the 5/2 favorite, Shedaresthedevil, with Florent Geroux in the irons.

This five-year-old mare finished 15 of her 17 career starts in the money, winning nine, including the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (Grade I) last August at Del Mar and the Locust Grove Stakes (Grade III) at Churchill Downs in September.

Over her career, Shedaresthedevil has moneyed 12 of her 14 stakes races, winning seven. She’s got this.

Top-ranked Brad H. Cox trains Shedaresthedevil for owners Flurry Racing Stables LLC, Qatar Racing Limited, and Whisper Hill Farm, LLC.
Saturday’s Picks for Santa Anita Park

We’ll start on the dirt track with race four, a six-furlong allowance optional claiming race for four-year-olds and upward. All the entries in this short field of five have had erratic careers, and I’m skeptical of a morning-line favorite that moneyed only one of her two 2022 races.

So instead, I’m buying a win ticket on the 5/1 underdog, Fight On, piloted by Christopher A. Emigh.
This seven-year-old’s career has been just as erratic, but twelve of his 39 races have been stakes matches, and he’s finished fourth or better in eight of those. For the record, Fight On moneyed 16 of his 39 career starts, winning five.

He notably finished third in the Kona Gold Stakes (Grade III) at Santa Anita last April.

Former jockey Brittany A. Vanden Berg—who’s already establishing herself as one of the top trainers on the West Coast—trains Fight On for RSR Racing Services, LLC (Robert S. Rhoads).

Let’s switch to the turf course for race five, a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race for four-year-olds and upward. In this seven-horse field, my money’s on the second-favored (at 3/1) Vantastic, ridden by John R. Velazquez.

This six-year-old gelding finished in the money for eleven of his 18 career starts, winning four. His highlights include finishing third in the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes (Grade III) at Del Mar in 2018 and third in the Lazaro Barrera Stakes (Grade III) here at Santa Anita in 2019.

Vantastic has won three of his most recent six races and posted triple-digit speed figures in all but one of the six. He’ll do.

With nearly four decades in the horseracing business, Peter Eurton trains Vantastic for owners Ciaglia Racing LLC and SAF Racing.

Race nine is the San Luis Rey Stakes (Grade III), a $125,000 purse, 1-1/2 mile grass run for four-year-olds and upward. All the horses in this field of nine have experience at the stakes level, but none is as experienced—or as successful—as the one I’m betting my two dollars on: the 5/2 morning line favorite, Say the Word, ridden by Flavien Prat.

This seven-year-old gelding finished in the money 17 of his 34 career starts, winning seven.

While his earlier years were not particularly noteworthy, he started competing at the graded stakes level in mid-2019, when he finished third in the King Edward Stakes (Grade II) at Woodbine.
Say the Word went on to win the Northern Dancer Turf Stakes (Grade I) at Woodbine in 2020, and last year, he won the Elkhorn Stakes (Grade II) at Keeneland in April and the Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes (Grade II) at Del Mar in November.

Say the Word has posted triple-digit speed figures for his last twelve races. He is, as they say, a professional horse.

Breeders’ Cup veteran Philip D’Amato trains Say the Word for owners Agave Racing Stable and Sam-Son Farm.
Saturday Picks for Tampa Bay Downs

Let’s start on the turf course with race seven—the Hillsborough Stakes (Grade II), a $225,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles grass run for fillies and mares four years old and upward. It’s hard to argue with a morning-line favorite that has won all four of her career starts—so I won’t. I’m buying a win ticket on Bleecker Street, with jockey Hector Rafael Diaz, Jr. aboard.

After graduating the maiden class on her first attempt last August, she went on to win two allowance races before finishing first in the Endeavour Stakes (Grade III) here at Tampa Bay just last month.
Bleecker Street doesn’t have quite as much graded stakes experience as the second-favored Lady Speightspeare, but that didn’t stop her from beating Lady Speightspeare by a length-and-a-half in the Endeavor Stakes.

Multiple Eclipse Award-winner Chad C. Brown trains Bleecker Street for owner Peter M. Brant.

We’re back on the dirt track for race eight—the Challenger Stakes (Grade III), a 1-1/16 miles run for four-year-olds and upward. My win ticket is on the 3/1 second-favored Greatest Honour, with Jose L. Ortiz in the irons.

The ten entries in this race are all stars, but this four-year-old colt is the most impressive, with seven money finishes in seven starts, three of those wins. Those include the Holy Bull Stakes (Grade III) in January 2021 and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade II) the following month, both at Gulfstream.

Longtime horseracing veteran Claude R. McGaughey III trains Greatest Honour for owner-breeder Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam).

Race nine is the Florida Oaks (Grade III), a $200,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles run on the turf course for three-year-old fillies. My money’s on the 6/1 sleeper, Mrs. Barbara, ridden by veteran jockey Rafael Manuel Hernandez.

This three-year-old filly had already moneyed at the graded stakes level before breaking her maiden last November at Woodbine. Just three weeks later, she won the Mazarine Stakes (Grade III) there at Woodbine. For the record, she moneyed four of her six career starts, winning two.

Thoroughbred Hall of Famer Mark E. Casse trains Mrs. Barbara for Spruce Stable.

Race ten is the Columbia Stakes, a $75,000 purse, one-mile turf run for three-year-olds. I’m betting my two dollars on the second-favored (at 4/1) Kitten Mischief, piloted by Manny Franco.

This gelding broke his maiden on his first attempt just last November at Aqueduct, then finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream. He notably finished eighth out of 12 in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (Grade III) last month here at Tampa Bay.

Jonathan Thomas trains Kitten Mischief for Augustin Stable.

We’re back on the dirt track for race eleven—the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade II), a $400,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles run for three-year-olds. The top four finishers in the Tampa Bay Derby are awarded Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard points (50-20-10-5) to qualify for a post position in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

I have to agree with the morning line and bet on the 8/5 favorite, Classic Causeway, ridden by top jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. The three-year-old goes into this race sitting at #11 on the R2KD leaderboard, and a win in this race could jump Classic Causeway into the #1 slot.

After winning his initial maiden attempt at Saratoga in September, Classic Causeway steadily improved his record. First, with a third-place finish at Keeneland in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (Grade I) in October, then a second-place finish at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Grade II), and then a win here at Tampa Bay last month in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (Grade III).

Thirty-year horseracing veteran Brian A. Lynch trains Classic Causeway for owners Kentucky West Racing LLC and Clarke M. Cooper.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:12 AM

Fair Grounds Picks: Black Cat S. crosses our handicapping path on March 12
By J.N. Campbell

Fair Grounds Picks - Saturday, March 12, 2022

Race 1: 5-1/1A-3-8
Race 2: 1-5-4-8
Race 3: 3-5-1-2
Race 4: 2-7-5-10
Race 5: 2-4-1-5
Race 6: 1-9-3-5
Race 7: 7-3-6-1
Race 8: 1-6-9-5
Race 9: 2-1/1A-6-5
**Most Likely Winner: Buckingham Palace #7 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Logical Myth #1 (Race 6)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 7: Buckingham Palace #7, 3/1):

These offspring of budding sire Klimt are running well on the dirt whenever they enter in North America. I like this sire, and think he has some ability to influence even further. This is a 3-yr-old colt that comes into a somewhat easier class position than he had last time. His record for Norm Casse is quite good, after running at all sorts of tracks from Ellis, Saratoga, Churchill, and last time at Oaklawn. Marylou Whitney Stables might not have the benefit of their patriarch, but her spirit lives on. This colt has a strong “geared” running style, and I expect Adam Beschizza to be in a good spot when the time comes. I would think that after that tough conditioned race in Hot Springs, Casse has him ready to move forward.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #7

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 6: Logical Myth #1, 10/1):

With moisture in the forecast, we would do well to plan accordingly … Here is one of 2 entries for trainer Joe Sharp, and I especially like this half of the uncoupled entry. A seasoned gelding by Data Link, he comes back to the Fair Grounds after running in the John B. Connally Turf Cup (G3) back in late January. His last 3 races do not look too inviting, but I think that is about to change. Adam Beschizza is getting his 3rd try aboard him, and I think the break over February was just what he needed. This is a turfer that needs a fair amount of pace to run into, and he is going to get it this afternoon in the Crescent City. I expect his odds to be near double-digits come post time, and he is certainly going to enjoy the class relief. What a buy!

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #1 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Turf, 1 Mile, Allen Black Cat LaCombe Memorial S., $75k, 3F):

As mentioned, with rain coming in overnight on Friday, you will have to check the conditions on Saturday. I would imagine there will be some “give” to the Stall Course, and keeping that in mind will be of use. Horses prefer certain kinds of ground, and by their nature, North American grass runners like it less than spongy. In this 3-yr-old filly spot going 2-turns, I am all-in on Brad Cox’s Mariah’s Fortune #1. She already has 5 career races under her saddle, and even though she has never tried the turf, I think this will be a seamless switch. She has already built some nice class to her name, running at Indiana Grand in MSW Co., and then at Oaklawn in mid-December. That last race @OP was tough, and she handled it like a pro … running away with the prize by 8-lengths. The Eclipse Award trainer then sent her to the Fair Grounds, and she stepped up nicely—2nd in an OC50n1x. That is not easy to do. Her turf pedigree is actually very strong with both Pioneerof the Nile and Giant’s Causeway in the family tree. Cox goes with Marcelino Pedroza, and I know he thinks this is a rider with solid ability. If she is even remotely close to 6/1, then I consider her an overlay. I am going to put her on top, and roll the rest of the field underneath in an Exacta Wheel … maybe a super long shot will surprise everyone, securing the “Place” position. Here we go!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Wheel, 1 w 2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9/10

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:12 AM

Gulfstream Park Picks: Hurricane Bertie S./Captiva Island S. in focus on March 12
By J.N. Campbell

Gulfstream Park Picks - Saturday, March 12, 2022

Race 1: 9-5-1-6
Race 2: 1-6-3-2
Race 3: 7-3-6-9
Race 4: 4-11-1-12
Race 5: 1-5-4-8
Race 6: 5-4-1-9
Race 7: 1-5-3-6
Race 8: 2-7-3-6
Race 9: 9-1-8-3
Race 10: 5-3-4-6
Race 11: 3-6-1-2
Race 12: 9-11-1-5
**Most Likely Winner: Riot House #5 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Bramble Berry #1 (Race 7)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 6: Riot House #5, 3/1):

Taking to the grass course at Gulfstream Park (which I am still convinced is just painted dirt), we have this gelding from the barn of Danny Gargan. I do not normally back a runner that is coming off a major break in action (the circs have to be right …). This Arnmore homebred though is no average talent, especially since he spent most of his schooling days as a 2-yr-old with Wesley Ward. The connections have made the switch to Gargan, who looks to have really put this son of Violence to the test on the training track. With Miguel Vasquez in the irons, this one could be ready to fire a bullet. He sure has been being doing that at Palm Meadows with the “dogs” out. To me, that is a sure sign that a Thoroughbred is ready to go. If you could get 3/1 on this turfer (going basically a mile from this post), then that looks like a deal against a field of mainly “firsters.”

Wager: $100 Win, #5

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 7: Bramble Berry #1, 8/1):

Trainer Kent Sweezey is sending his mare by Brethern up the class ladder against some formidable foes in this G3. I realize this is going to be a chore, but I like the fact that the 5-yr-old performed so ably over the MT at Gulfstream last time. That was an OC62.5kn2x, and she passed the sprint test with flying colors. Edwin Gonzalez is having a good Meet, and I think his talent is overlooked. Don’t forget that this one has some “BT” races in her form, and her GP record is pretty impressive (11/6-2-0). We know her price is going to be more than square come Saturday. This one is a bet … peaking at the proper time!

Wager: Graduated Wager, WPS, $100 Bankroll, #1 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 10: Turf, 5F, Captiva Island S. $100k, F&M 4+):

A group of turf sprinters are assembling for the annual renewal of the Captiva Island! The clear standouts that have drawn-in are Brian Lynch’s Tobys Heart #3, Ed Plesa’s Miss Auramet #4, and Christophe Clement’s Miss J McKay #5. One of these will be the winner … it is just a matter of sorting out who it is … I think a spot like this comes down to conditioning, and that nod goes to Clement’s 5-yr-old mare by Hangover Kid. Not only does she have major experience in a spot like this one, but I think she is going to return to her winning ways after failing to get the job done last time in the Ladies Turf Sprint $100k. This is her best distance, and just to add to the argument ... she gets accomplished rider Tyler Gaffalione aboard once again, and she looks impressively fit in this particular cycle. I will be putting her at the top of several tickets, including this one that you see below … Nothing like a turf blow and go trip to get the blood pumping on a Saturday. Be sure to check the forecast to see if this one stays on the grass or not … ok?

Wager: Trifecta Wheel, $2, 5 w 3/4 w 3/4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:12 AM

TimeformUS horses in focus for Saturday, March 12, 2022
David Aragona

RACE 4: ROYAL CURRENCY (#6)

I’ll be interested to see how much money #8 Merger of Equals attracts in this spot. An RNA for $30k as a yearling, she sold for $185k at the Fasig-Tipton Timonium sale last year after working a furlong in 10 2/5. Unified is a 15% debut sire with his first crop, and there isn’t much pedigree on the dam’s side. Chad Brown is 5 for 11 (45%, $3.70 ROI) with 3YO first-time starters on dirt at Aqueduct over the past 2 years. Some of the recent works match up with Beauxs Artes, who debuts for this barn in the first race, but I suspect she was outworked from the gate by that one. Among those with experience, the horse who may take money that I’m against is #7 Carbon. She’s earned some flashy speed figures, but I don’t love that she's been off since November, and Linda Rice entered and scratched her out of a $40k maiden claiming race last month. My top pick is #6 Royal Currency. She was bet down to even-money favoritism last time in her second start off the layoff and was quite disappointing. However, she was racing on a day when the inside paths were a disadvantage, and she was one of many compromised by that track bias. Royal Currency had ran well in her prior start and is going out for a barn that has done little wrong at the current meet. She’s a half-sister to multiple stakes winner Gold for the King ($724k), so she’s bred to be a good one. I’m giving her one more chance with the blinkers added. That said, I’m not against a couple of horses drawn to her inside. #5 Darn that Song makes sense after chasing a fast pace that fell apart in her most recent start. She also adds blinkers, but perhaps doesn’t have as much upside as some others. An intriguing wild card could be #1 Succulent. Even though she was beaten by double-digit margins in all of her starts last summer at Saratoga, she faced some solid fields and was running on late after a series of slow starts. She may have more ability than it appears and now returns for David Donk.

:: Get TimeformUS PPs for these races at Aqueduct

RACE 6: CHAYSENBRYN (#7)

#6 Amity Island is the horse to beat as she drops back down in class to face claimers after a series of races against tougher company. She actually did quite well after getting claimed by Horacio De Paz last year, winning a NY-bred allowance event in December. However, she was simply overmatched in her last two starts, one of which came against stakes company. This drop makes sense for a filly who had previously been effective at similar levels. That said, it is possible that her form is tailing off and the connections could have waited for a $40k claimer to get written. I prefer her main rival #7 Chaysenbryn. Her recent speed figures are obviously inferior to those of Amity Island, but I think her overall form is better than it looks. Since she did well here last winter, she’s raced in a pair of sprints, one of which came following a 7-month layoff. Both of those races featured extremely slow paces, so she had little chance to get involved. She finally landed in a more favorable spot last time, but she didn’t get an ideal trip. She appeared to get discouraged behind a wall of horses around the far turn and didn’t find a clear path until the three-sixteenths pole. She really took off in the late stages once she found daylight and was quickly closing in on today’s rival #1 Sweet Mission late. I prefer Chaysenbryn out of that race and think she can beat this field with another slight step forward.

RACE 7: BANKERS DAUGHTER (#6)

This race centers around a couple of 5-year-old mares who haven’t shown much affinity for winning races. The more notorious of those is #5 Snicket, who has compiled 9 second-place finishes to go along with her single victory in 19 career starts. She’s been in her fair share of races that she should have won and she just loves to settle for second. She never got the chance display her hanging talents as the 4-5 favorite last time, as she parted ways with Dylan Davis coming out of the gate. She’s landed in a tougher spot at the same level here, but she is once again the horse to beat. Yet I prefer her main rival #6 Bankers Daughter, who has shown some of the same tendencies to hang at times in her career. That said, I think Bankers Daughter at her best is a more naturally talented dirt sprinter than Snicket. She faced some decent fields at this level when she was in her prime during late 2020 and into the spring of 2021. The problem is that she’s been pulled up across the wire in two of her last three starts. Something clearly went wrong with her early last year, but the connections have given her plenty of time to recuperate. If she’s going to run well again, she’s likely to do so fresh, as she did last April. She shows a steady pattern of workouts for her return, indicating that there haven’t been too many hiccups getting her back on track. If she shows up, I think she’s supposed to beat this field. The others don’t do much for me. #8 Pretty Clever did have some trouble after the start of her last race, but she was also with the track bias, racing outside avoiding a dead rail. I think many of the others are coming out of slightly weaker races at this level.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:12 AM

DRF's Horse Racing Playbook for Saturday, March 12, 2022
DRF Staff

Daily Racing Form has served as the most trusted source of news and information about the sport since 1894, and moving forward we have decided to provide a free daily playbook – something that both hardcore horseplayers and casual observers can reference to get informed of each day’s action.

1:33 GP 3rd HOLIDAY PRINCESS (#7, 9-2) drops to bottom after not being disgraced vs. better last time on Tapeta. Back to the main, deserves nod with this kind. -Mike Welsch | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

1:44 TAM 4th MIAMI CHROME (#12, 15-1) is a DRF Best Bet (Kenny Peck). | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

1:50 LRL 4th TAYLER'S CHROME (#2, 6-1) continues to drop in search of her correct class level and she exits a strong $12,500 seller that produced three next-out winners (Acadian Girl returned to win by seven lengths in a state-sired allowance with a 72 Beyer). Chased three wide around both turns in a race dominated throughout by the top-two finishers, she can get forward from the jump this afternoon. -Dan Illman | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

2:23 AQU 3rd Thought DOUBLEPOUR (#1, 8-1) ran really well when rallying to score in his return to this circuit last October while matching his career-best Beyer; stepped up for his next start and ran well again at a big price; has caught three straight wet tracks since then, including his last two starts of 2021 vs. much better horses; had no chance off the layoff last time while left with too much to do; good fit here if he can work out a trip off the claim. -Mike Beer | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

2:31 GP 5th SERENADE A KITTEN (#8, 5-1) in dangerous hands off the claim. Ran 6/5 Sweet Serenade to a close decision three back on this surface while finishing in front of next out allow. winner Grand Ave Girl in the process. Tough to beat if able to repeat that type of effort here. -Mike Welsch | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

2:52 AQU 4th DARN THAT SONG (#5, 6-1) still hasn't run a fast race after five starts but thought she ran well with excuses in her first two starts back from the layoff, including the distant third-place finish two back when shuffled out behind horses early and then moving away from the strong rail to chase; had a better trip last time, and did her best with it vs. a much stronger field. -Mike Beer | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

3:14 TAM 7th TAKE CHARGE RO (#2, 12-1) rises in class for this Hillsborough but she is in very good form of late, hitting the board in four straight races, including a race switched to the main track in her latest; with precipitation forecast in the area for Saturday morning (80% chance of rain, possibly heavy) there's some chance the turf races could be moved to dirt, which may well help her chances. -Kenny Peck | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

3:49 TAM 8th WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST (#1, 10-1) ran an exceptional race to score last time out, setting the early pace before yielding the lead to a longshot, then making a bid on the turn to make the lead again and holding off the closers in game fashion; fits the expected pace scenario perfectly in this Challenger Stakes, as he's the main speed in a race lacking same, and he can steal this if he can back down the tempo on a loose lead. -Kenny Peck | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

4:27 AQU 7th CINDERELLA'S CAUSE (#11, 6-1) wasn't sharp when dropped in class two starts back and failing to make an impact as the favorite; chased from the inside while stepping back up off the claim last time, and never really had enough while settling for third over a sloppy track; moves outside this time for Englehart, who has historically been much better second off the claim. -Mike Beer | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

4:38 GP 9th UNIKEE (#5, 10-1) should offer a little value behind tough looking Pletcher pair coming off good showing in debut behind well meant first-er Nitrous Channel and today's likely heavy favorite STAY RESTLESS. Continues to train forwardly since that outing. -Mike Welsch | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

4:51 TAM 10th GRUMLEY (#10, 10-1) is confidently spotted by trainer Gerald Bennett in his first start back following a freshening; he was off the board against optional claimers in his first start vs. winners but that was a better effort than the finishing position might suggest, as he made a premature mid-race move to threaten for the lead before tiring. -Kenny Peck | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

5:55 TAM 12th ZENA CROWN (#10, 8-1) doesn't win often with his firsters, with only two such scores from 50 tries going back five years, but he did score with 51-1 debut runner Lost My Sock on the turf at Aqueduct just in December, and the other winner was Miss Tourista, who had an exceptional set of works and won over this course in January of 2021; this filly also sports works that suggest that she'll come out running, and while her dam didn't try turf she was a prolific winner (16-for-22 for her career) and she has produced a pair of grass winners in Distorsionada and stakes-winning sprinter Lady Aurelia. CURIOUSLY (#9, 12-1) is a filly I'll be using equally with the top pick in multi-race exotics if this race stays on the grass, as she has lots of upside after a traffic-filled trip in her debut. -Kenny Peck | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

6:10 OP 9th Champion female sprinter CE CE (#5, 3-1) moves back to two turns and note she is a multiple Grade 1 winner at the configuration. Her victories include the 2020 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn. CE CE could get an ideal trip here, just off the speed. -Mary Rampellini | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

6:40 OP 10th LOU'S ARROW (#9, 10-1) moves back to two turns for the first time in a while and he gets pedigree support for the added distance. -Mary Rampellini | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

7:11 SA 8th A NEW PEACE (#1, 4-1) drops from tougher turf races to go for the $12.5k claim tag on dirt. Her close third on dirt in a starter allowance four back would be plenty fast enough. She has speed and a versatile running style. -Brad Free | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

10:00 WBS (Harness) 10th TEXAS MIKI (#8, 7-2) fits better in this field and he should get a more aggressive steer this week; top call. – Garnet Barnsdale | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

10:30 MED (Harness) 11th DA DELIGHTFUL (#6, 12-1) won in this class two starts back and had plenty of pace last time while blocked with no shot. He could offer some value here. – Derick Giwner | Get PPs for this race |

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:13 AM

Rocket Picks ��: Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Downs, and Santa Anita for March 12, 2022

By: Aaron Halterman
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We’ve made it to the weekend, and we’ve got a gigantic Saturday of racing! For the free pick 4, we will head to Gulfstream Park for the late sequence on the card. We will also have full card selections for Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Downs, and Santa Anita for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s see if we can get this home today.

Below is our free Late Pick 4 for Gulfstream Park:

Gulfstream Park March 12, 2022

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight

#3 Under Oath debuts in this spot for Todd Pletcher, who continues to have solid success with first time starters at this meet. #1 Stay Restless was close on debut last time out, finishing second behind a very nice first time starter.

Race 10: Captiva Island Stakes
freestar

#3 Tobys Heart cuts back in distance today, which should help her chances, after a couple of poor efforts going longer. #4 Miss Auramet was a winner at this distance and class level last time out.

Race 11: Allowance Optional Claiming

#3 Create Again runs first off of the claim for Walder today after winning at a similar level to this one last time out in a race that was also at this distance. #1 Ghostlore was a nice maiden special weight winner at Tampa Bay Downs last time out, and can make it two in a row today with a similar effort.

Race 12: Starter Optional Claiming

#9 Hatari has been close at this level in two straight starts, and should be competitive once again today in this spot. #5 Strong Embrace gets back over to the turf for this race after a nice victory over the synthetic surface last time out.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 9-12) 1,3,5,9,11 / 3,4,5 / 1,3,6 / 5,9 – $45

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:13 AM

The Jury: Bets and fades for March 12
TwinSpires Staff

The TwinSpires Jury, consisting of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson, is back with thoughts on this weekend's stakes action, which is highlighted by the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and an intriguing renewal of the Azeri (G2) for fillies and mares.
What is your best bet?

James Scully: #5 Ce Ce (3-1) had no chance against an impressive winner in the Santa Monica (G2) last time, but the second-place effort served as a perfect prep for her return to Oaklawn Park in the Azeri. The classy mare captured the 2020 Apple Blossom H. (G1) in Hot Springs, and she projects to receive the perfect stalking trip as Lady Mystify and Super Quick figure to be winging it and Shedaresthedevil may be fresh off the bench. Ce Ce should be rolling late.

Kellie Reilly: I expected #6 Rocky Sky (9-2) to be another stellar European recruit for Chad Brown, but she flopped in her Saratoga premiere and headed to the sidelines. Now the four-year-old gets Irad and Lasix in her Hillsborough (G2) comeback at Tampa. Her physique suggested she'd come into her own as older horse, so she brings plenty of upside. Although a rain-softened turf course is another variable, the Irish-bred by Rock of Gibraltar might cope better than most.

Vance Hanson: Given the present uncertainty of what surface will be used and its condition due to the forecast of rain, #8 On Alert (8-1) might be one to consider in the Florida Oaks (G3) at Tampa. The Shug McGaughey trainee rebounded from a career-opening loss, in which she broke slowly, to post a victory against maiden foes and then followed up with a respectable third in an allowance, both over the Gulfstream turf. Not only does she look like a filly headed in the right direction, but her pedigree suggests she would also fit very well on dirt, especially a wet one, if necessary. By Medaglia d'Oro, she's out of a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Heavenly Love and Grade 2 heroine Forever Darling.
Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #4 Dynamic One (5-2) and #3 Greatest Honour (3-1) in the Challenger (G3). Dynamic One, whose only wins have come in a restricted stakes and a maiden race, will make his first appearance since a seventh in the Travers (G1), and the late runner is eligible to need one. Greatest Honour hasn't started since a belated third in last year's Florida Derby (G1), and the confirmed closer is eligible to leave himself plenty to do behind a moderate pace.

KR: Dynamic One in the Challenger. Not only is he an unattractive price off the layoff in a deep field, but 1 1/16 miles is shorter than his preferred trip. Unless he's improved markedly from three to four, I'd expect him to close belatedly for a minor award at best rather than outkick them all to win.

VH: Although she captured the 2020 Apple Blossom, Ce Ce did not set the world afire in any of her subsequent two-turn attempts in California. There were good reasons why the mare's connections decided to concentrate on one-turn races last year, and it worked out splendidly as she wound up being voted champion female sprinter. There's certainly a possibility she'll appreciate the return to Oaklawn on Saturday enough to win the Azeri, and she might get a favorable trip behind a potentially contested pace, but I'm usually wary of accepting a short price on a horse deviating from what's obviously working.
What else is worth noting?

JS: #4 Classic Causeway (8-5) was visually impressive winning the Sam F. Davis (G3), but he's failed to earn a triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating in four career starts, including three stakes. The prohibitive favorite may have a pace advantage in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I'm leery to support at short odds until he runs fast. Let's see if Classic Causeway can change the narrative.

KS: I'm fascinated by #10 Shirl's Speight (6-1) going turf-to-dirt in the Challenger. Remember when he was working like a beast on Woodbine's dirt training track, as connections were entertaining the pandemic-delayed 2020 Kentucky Derby (G1)? The Roger Attfield trainee could thrive on a Tampa surface conducive to turfy types. And an off track might not faze the son of 21% mud sire Speightstown. Also, in Saturday's fourth race at Fair Grounds, I'm eager to see how #5 Dazzling Sun (8-1) fares in her U.S. debut for Brad Cox. As a South African import who's been off for 14 months, she could need this race, but the regally-bred daughter of Camelot was tried at the highest level in her homeland.

VH: #8 Commandperformance figures to go off at about 1-5 in Tampa's fifth race on Saturday, a maiden event over one mile and 40 yards. The Champagne (G1) runner-up disappointed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) when finishing fourth, but it will still be interesting to see what kind of development he's made over the winter. Although he seems a bit behind the eight ball in possibly making the Kentucky Derby, we might be able to glean clues as to his comparative talent as the race on Saturday is not much shorter than the Tampa Bay Derby. If his performance stacks up well, perhaps he'll try a Derby prep next out. If not, he could be one to watch for in the Belmont S. (G1).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:13 AM

Scully's stakes spot plays for March 12
James Scully

Kentucky Derby hopefuls will be in the spotlight in the $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (G2), an 85-point Road to the Kentucky Derby series qualifier, and Tampa Bay Downs will offer a total of five stakes on Saturday’s 12-race program.

I’ll give a few plays from the stakes action, along with a pick for the Azeri S. (G2) at Oaklawn Park.
Hillsborough (G2), Tampa Bay – Race 7 (3:14 p.m. ET)

The Feb. 5 Endeavour (G3) at Tampa had more pace, and #3 Lady Speightspeare dueled on the front end before finishing a respectable second, but the four-year-old filly has the opportunity to be lone speed here. A Grade 1 winner at two, Lady Speightspeare missed nearly a year before returning for Roger Attfield last fall, and she appears to be rounding into top form presently.
Challenger (G3), Tampa Bay – Race 8 (3:49 p.m. ET)

#9 Cody’s Wish will make his stakes debut in the Challenger (G3) following a layoff, and the Bill Mott-trained colt should be prominent early with Luis Saez. Little speed is signed on for the 1 1/16-mile race, which doesn’t help a couple main rivals, and Cody’s Wish appears to be training forwardly in preparation. The Curlin colt ended last season on a strong note, recording three straight convincing wins at Churchill, and I expect more from Cody’s Wish at age four.
Tampa Bay Derby (G2) – Race 11 (5:23 p.m. ET)

#9 Shipsational broke poorly and was stuck in traffic behind a wall of horses until altering outside for the stretch of the Sam F. Davis (G3), and the chestnut colt finished fast to be a clear second, netting his third consecutive triple-digit Brisnet Late Pace rating. A wire-to-wire winner of a New York-bred stakes in his previous outing last fall, the Midshipman colt possesses more tactical speed than displayed last time and won’t be as far back if he breaks better Saturday. Shipsational signaled his readiness for his second start of the year, recording back-to-back bullet works in advance of the Tampa Bay Derby, and he rates top billing.
Azeri (G2) – Race 9 (6:10 p.m. ET)

The 1 1/16-mile race will feature a couple of multiple Grade 1 winners, Ce Ce and Shedaresthedevil, and the latter will make a title defense after defeating Letruska last year. Shedaresthedevil was the speed last year, and is eligible to be forwardly-placed in her first start since early November, but a couple of speedballs, Lady Mystify and Super Quick, should guarantee a hot tempo.

#5 Ce Ce will take advantage. Winner of the 2020 Apple Blossom (G1), the mare had success when cutting back to sprints early last season, eventually being named champion female sprinter, but today’s distance is well within her scope and she will receive a favorable setup. Ce Ce gained fitness when rallying for second behind wire-to-wire winner Merneith in the Santa Monica (G2) last out, and the stalker will be poised to strike turning for home in the Azeri.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:14 AM

Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Saturday, March 12
By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

KEMPTON

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

5.00 The Defiant

5.30 Airshow

6.00 Figures

6.30 Surrey Territories

7.00 King's Knight

7.30 Nayef Road

8.00 Violet's Lads

8.30 We'll Meet Again

GIMCRACK

5.00 Amasova

5.30 Show Yourself

6.00 Figures

6.30 Guitar

7.00 King's Knight

7.30 Earlofthecotswolds

8.00 Masqool

8.30 Be Fair

SANDOWN

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.15 Malakahna

1.50 Knappers Hill

2.25 Up For Parol

3.00 Flirtatious Girl

3.35 Scene Not Herd

4.10 Flagrant Delitiep

4.45 Foxboro

GIMCRACK

1.15 Langafel

1.50 Knappers Hill (nap)

2.25 Onemorefortheroad

3.00 Mullenbeg (nb)

3.35 Scene Not Herd

4.10 Powerstown Park

4.45 Foxboro

WOLVERHAMPTON

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.31 Exalted Angel

2.05 Hafeet Alain (nb)

2.40 Misty Grey

3.16 Killearn

3.51 Fountain Cross

4.26 Robasta

5.04 Reckon I'm Hot

GIMCRACK

1.31 Zarzyni

2.05 Hafeet Alain

2.40 Internationalangel

3.16 Killearn

3.51 Fountain Cross

4.26 Way To Win

5.04 Reckon I'm Hot

Newmarket - 2.05 La Tihaty (nb)

HEREFORD

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.56 Abegudsam

2.31 Milan Bridge

3.06 Ahead Of The Field

3.41 Prince Escalus

4.16 Voice Of Calm

4.51 City Chief

5.21 Braganza Bay

5.51 Our Idic Boy

GIMCRACK

1.56 Hermes Boy

2.31 Lord Of Kerak

3.06 Runasimi River

3.41 Moonlighter

4.16 Fiveandtwenty

4.51 City Chief

5.21 Sure Touch

5.51 Always Able

AYR

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.00 Lissen To The Lady

1.35 Lord Roco (nap)

2.10 Destiny Is All

2.45 Hasty Brook

3.20 Stoney Rover

3.55 Juge Et Parti

4.30 Oot Ma Way

GIMCRACK

1.00 Charm Offensive

1.35 Ned Tanner

2.10 Destiny Is All

2.45 Ballycoose

3.20 Shoeshine Boy

3.55 Donna's Delight

4.30 Oot Ma Way

Northerner – 2.45 Hasty Brook (nb); 3.55 Glittering Love (nap).

LINGFIELD

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.46 He's A Latchico

2.21 King Of Time

2.56 Cool Spirit

3.31 Tadreeb

4.06 Mashaan

4.41 Pluperfect

GIMCRACK

1.46 Helian

2.21 King Of Time

2.56 Eye Of The Water

3.31 Papa Stour

4.06 Mashaan

4.41 Streaky Bay

Newmarket - 2.21 King Of Time (nap)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:14 AM

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, March 12
Posted on March 11, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 4: ROYAL CURRENCY (#6)

I’ll be interested to see how much money #8 Merger of Equals attracts in this spot. An RNA for $30k as a yearling, she sold for $185k at the Fasig-Tipton Timonium sale last year after working a furlong in 10 2/5. Unified is a 15% debut sire with his first crop, and there isn’t much pedigree on the dam’s side. Chad Brown is 5 for 11 (45%, $3.70 ROI) with 3YO first time starters on dirt at Aqueduct over the past 2 years. Some of the recent works match up with Beauxs Artes, who debuts for this barn in the first race, but I suspect she was outworked from the gate by that one. Among those with experience, the horse who may take money that I’m against is #7 Carbon. She’s earned some flashy speed figures, but I don’t love that she’s been off since November, and Rice entered and scratched her out of a $40k maiden claiming race last month. My top pick is #6 Royal Currency. She was bet down to even-money favoritism last time in her second start off the layoff and was quite disappointing. However, she was racing on a day when the inside paths were a disadvantage, and she was one of many compromised by that track bias. Royal Currency had ran well in her prior start and is going out for a barn that has done little wrong at the current meet. She’s a half-sister to multiple stakes winner Gold for the King ($724k), so she’s bred to be a good one. I’m giving her one more chance with the blinkers added. That said, I’m not against a couple of horses drawn to her inside. #5 Darn that Song makes sense after chasing a fast pace that fell apart in her most recent start. She also adds blinkers, but perhaps doesn’t have as much upside as some others. An intriguing wild card could be #1 Succulent. Even though she was beaten by double-digit margins in all of her starts last summer at Saratoga, she faced some solid fields and was running on late after a series of slow starts. She may have more ability than it appears and now returns for David Donk.

RACE 6: CHAYSENBRYN (#7)

#6 Amity Island is the horse to beat as she drops back down in class to face claimers after a series of races against tougher company. She actually did quite well after getting claimed by Horacio De Paz last year, winning a NY-bred allowance event in December. However, she was simply overmatched in her last two starts, one of which came against stakes company. This drop makes sense for a filly who had previously been effective at similar levels. That said, it is possible that her form is tailing off and the connections could have waited for a $40k claimer to get written. I prefer her main rival #7 Chaysenbryn. Her recent speed figures are obviously inferior to those of Amity Island, but I think her overall form is better than it looks. Since she did well here last winter, she’s raced in a pair of sprints, one of which came following a 7-month layoff. Both of those races featured extremely slow paces, so she had little chance to get involved. She finally landed in a more favorable spot last time, but she didn’t get an ideal trip. She appeared to get discouraged behind a wall of horses around the far turn and didn’t find a clear path until the three-sixteenths pole. She really took off in the late stages once she found daylight and was quickly closing in on today’s rival #1 Sweet Mission late. I prefer Chaysenbryn out of that race and think she can beat this field with another slight step forward.

RACE 7: BANKERS DAUGHTER (#6)

This race centers around a couple of 5-year-old mares who haven’t shown much affinity for winning races. The more notorious of those is #5 Snicket, who has compiled 9 second-place finishes to go along with her single victory in 19 career starts. She’s been in her fair share of races that she should have won and she just loves to settle for second. She never got the chance display her hanging talents as the 4-5 favorite last time, as she parted ways with Dylan Davis coming out of the gate. She’s landed in a tougher spot at the same level here, but she is once again the horse to beat. Yet I prefer her main rival #6 Bankers Daughter, who has shown some of the same tendencies to hang at times in her career. That said, I think Bankers Daughter at her best is a more naturally talented dirt sprinter than Snicket. She faced some decent fields at this level when she was in her prime during late 2020 and into the spring of 2021. The problem is that she’s been pulled up across the wire in two of her last three starts. Something clearly went wrong with her early last year, but the connections have given her plenty of time to recuperate. If she’s going to run well again, she’s likely to do so fresh, as she did last April. She shows a steady pattern of workouts for her return, indicating that there haven’t been too many hiccups getting her back on track. If she shows up, I think she’s supposed to beat this field. The others don’t do much for me. #8 Pretty Clever did have some trouble after the start of her last race, but she was also with the track bias, racing outside avoiding a dead rail. I think many of the others are coming out of slightly weaker races at this level.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:14 AM

Jon White: Updated Derby Top 10, Plus Tampa Bay Derby Picks

March 9, 2022 | By Jon White

My Kentucky Derby rankings continue to percolate now that this Saturday’s Grade II Tampa Bay Derby is eight weeks away from the 158th running of the coveted Run for the Roses on May 7.

Still in the top spot this week is Messier, who was scintillating when he won Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes by 15 lengths on Feb. 6 for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.

Messier recorded a 103 Beyer Speed Figure for his Lewis performance. That Beyer was matched last Saturday at Santa Anita by Taiba, the $1.7 million auction purchase who was a dazzling 7 1/2-length maiden winner at first asking. Baffert also trains Taiba, a Kentucky-bred colt by red-hot sire Gun Runner.

The 103 Beyers by Messier and Taiba are the only two triple-digit figures posted so far in 2022 by a 3-year-old.

Below are the Beyer Speed Figures higher than 95 by a 3-year-old in 2022 to date:

BSF Horse (Finish, Race, Track, Date)

103 Taiba (won maiden special weight race, Santa Anita, March 5)
103 Messier (won Robert B. Lewis, Santa Anita, Feb. 6)
98 Forbidden Kingdom (won San Felipe, Santa Anita, March 5)
98 Epicenter (won Risen Star, Fair Grounds, Feb. 19)
97 White Abarrio (won Holy Bull, Gulfstream, Feb. 5)
96 Morello (won Gotham, Aqueduct, March 5)
96 Simplification (won Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream, March 5).

After Messier’s blowout triumph in the Lewis, he did not hit the work tab again until stepping four furlongs in :48.60 at Santa Anita on Feb. 28 in company with El Camino Real Derby winner Blackadder, who also was timed in :48.60. The official clockers listed the workout by both Messier and Blackadder as “breezing” rather than “handily.”

At Southern California tracks, a workout is rarely listed as breezing. A breezing designation is given when a horse is considered by the official clockers to have gone considerably easier, without any urging at all, than a horse whose workout is termed handily.

Messier came back and worked four furlongs again in :48.60 at Santa Anita last Sunday. This time the work was listed as “handily.”

XBTV has video of Messier’s Feb. 28 work. But despite every workout these days by Messier leading up to the Santa Anita Derby being important, XBTV does not have video of his drill last Sunday.

The Grade I Santa Anita Derby on April 9 is expected to be the next start for Messier, a Canadian-bred Empire Maker colt. Baffert currently is barred by Churchill Downs from running Messier or anyone else in the Kentucky Derby, stemming from last year’s Derby in which Medina Spirit finished first but tested positive for traces of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use, but not on race day. Horses trained by Baffert also currently are ineligible to earn any qualifying points toward the 2022 Derby.

The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission announced on Feb. 21 that the three stewards in the stand for the 2021 Kentucky Derby issued a ruling that day stating Medina Spirit “is disqualified and all purse money forfeited” because of the medication violation.

Baffert and his legal team are fighting the disqualification.

1/ST BET analyst and handicapper Jeff Siegel, like yours truly, has Messier in the top spot on his Triple Crown rankings this week.

“There he stands, still on top, the Baffert-trained Messier, despite a complete lack of evidence that the colt’s connections are planning to find a replacement trainer for the final significant points-generating event, most likely in his case the Santa Anita Derby four weeks prior to the first Saturday,” Siegel wrote. “Even with zero points prior to this race, a win or second-place finish will be sufficient to gain entrance to the Triple Crown’s first jewel, but not if Baffert remains the listed trainer of record.”

Last Sunday, Siegel asked Baffert point blank, “Should we remove this colt from the top of our list because everybody believes he won’t be eligible to run if you’re still the trainer?”

“No,” was Baffert’s one-word answer to Siegel.

That, ladies and gentlemen, is VERY interesting.

Again at No. 2 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week is the filly Secret Oath, who has reeled off three straight wins at Oaklawn Park by a combined 23 lengths. Her most recent victory came in the Grade III Honeybee Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 26 for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and owners Robert and Stacy Mitchell (Briland Farm).

The next start for Secret Oath will be at Oaklawn on April 2 in either the Grade III Fantasy Stakes vs. fillies or the Arkansas Derby against the boys.

Secret Oath already has accumulated sufficient points to get into the May 6 Kentucky Oaks. Interestingly, in a recent BloodHorse video interview with Lukas at his Oaklawn stable office, the trainer noted that if the Mitchells do want to leave open the option of running Secret Oath in the Kentucky Derby instead of the Oaks, the Kentucky-bred daughter of Arrogate will need to run in the Arkansas Derby in order to try and get enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby.

Lukas also has an Arkansas Derby candidate in Ethereal Road. As I mentioned last week, Lukas has never been afraid of running more than one horse in an important stakes race, even once starting five in the 1987 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Many have presumed that the Arkansas Derby is where Ethereal Road is going next after he finished second to Un Ojo in Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 26. But Lukas noted in the BloodHorse video that is not necessarily set in stone.

“Obviously, the Arkansas Derby is first on his radar, but he is nominated to the Blue Grass,” Lukas said of Aaron Sones’ Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt.

Referring to what could be next for Ethereal Road and Secret Oath, Lukas said “there’s a chance we split those two off and take a look at the Blue Grass, too.”

Keeneland’s Grade I Blue Grass Stakes will be contested on April 9.

Simplification vaults all the way up to No. 3 after being No. 10 last week in the wake of his sparkling win in last Saturday’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park for trainer Antonio Sano.

This was a remarkably similar story to what occurred with Gunnevera and Sano five years ago.

Gunnevera finished a troubled second in Gulfstream’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes, then won the Fountain of Youth by 5 3/4 lengths.

Simplification finished a troubled second in the Holy Bull, then won the Fountain of Youth by 3 1/2 lengths.

Gunnevera went on to finish third in the Grade I Florida Derby, seventh in the Grade I Kentucky Derby and fifth in the Grade I Preakness Stakes.

In all likelihood, the next assignment for Simplification is to try and do better than Gunnevera did in the Florida Derby.

Simplification was a clear-cut winner of the Fountain of Youth despite not having a comfortable trip when in heavy traffic to the far turn, then being parked out about six wide at the quarter pole while rallying.

Poking his head in front at the top of the lane, Simplification led by a half-length at the eighth pole, then drew away while racing on his left lead. The Kentucky-bred Not This Time colt completed the 1 1/16-mile race in 1:44.04.

Would it have been better if Simplification had raced on his right lead in the stretch? Yes, that would be preferred. But to me, it actually makes his win by such a margin all the more impressive that he did it while racing on the so-called “wrong lead” in the final furlong.

Remember Alydar, who no doubt would have been a Triple Crown winner in 1978 if for not having the misfortune to be born the same year as Affirmed? Despite coming down the stretch on his left lead, Alydar finished second to the Laz Barrrera-trained Affirmed in all three Triple Crown events. Alydar lost the Kentucky Derby by 1 1/2 lengths, then the Preakness by a neck, then an epic renewal of the Belmont Stakes by a head for owner Calumet Farm and trainer John Veitch.

“If there was a chink in Alydar’s armor, it was the fact that he would never change lead legs, preferring to stick to his left,” Jay Hovdey wrote for the Daily Racing Form in 2018.

Veitch said: “That winter at Hialeah, I would take him back to the three-eighths chute and we would do figure-eights,” describing a graceful drill designed to encourage lead changes, as Hovdey put it. “He looked like Baryshnikov, so pretty doing it. But when he ran, under the intensity of the race, he would never change leads.

“I had seemingly hundreds of people call me up to make recommendations,” Veitch added with a laugh. “From changing his shoes, to putting his saddle on differently, or telling the jockey how to shift his weight. It made no difference.”

Hovdey posed the following question to Veitch: With a short head deciding the Belmont, would a fresh lead have changed history?

“It’s impossible to know,” Veitch said. “What it came down to was that he was so comfortable with the way he ran. Alydar was Alydar.”

Veitch took the narrow loss in the Belmont especially hard. Calumet had not won the Belmont since the great Citation completed his Triple Crown sweep in 1948.

For Veitch, winning the Belmont with Alydar was “a gift he badly wanted to give the farm’s matriarch, Lucille Markey,” wrote Hovdey, who then passed along the following tidbit that I enjoyed reading, as I think you will.

“After the Belmont I was disappointed,” Veitch told Hovdey. “Crushed is a better word.”

After the frustratingly narrow loss by Alydar in the Belmont, Veitch was walking through the grandstand tunnel. Veitch recalled a “guy leaning over the rail with a huge beer, calling out, ‘Hey, Veitch-o!’ I’d been in New York a long time, so I knew what the fans were like. Usually you just walk on by, but I was thinking, well, maybe he’s sympathetic.”

Veitch paused, and the fan took the cue, Hovdey wrote.

“Hey, Veitch-o, you know what Alydar needs?”

“No,” the trainer replied.

“Barrera.”

TWO NEWCOMERS ON THIS WEEK’S TOP 10

Morello, undefeated in three career starts following his facile 4 1/2-length win in Aqueduct’s Grade III Gotham Stakes last Saturday, debuts on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week at No. 6. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen trains the Kentucky-bred colt by 2016 Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male champion Classic Empire.

Next for Morello is Aqueduct’s Grade II Wood Memorial at 1 1/8 miles on April 9.

Classic Empire won the Grade I BC Juvenile at Santa Anita in 2016 at odds of 9-2. He had a two-length lead a furlong out and prevailed by a neck when fending off a late charge by Not This Time, future sire of Fountain of Youth one-two finishers Simplification and In Due Time.

That 2016 BC Juvenile sure was a bad beat for yours truly. Not This Time was sent away as the 5-2 favorite. Weeks earlier, when I saw him listed at 20-1 in a BC Juvenile future book, I put $100 on him. When he could not quite catch Classic Empire, I was left muttering “not this time” with my golden opportunity to make $2,000 in the BC Juvenile.

As for Morello, I like him a lot. In fact, I have a chance to make considerably more money with him than I did with his sire in the BC Juvenile. I have an $80 Kentucky Derby future bet on Morello in Las Vegas at 125-1.

Not only has Morello won all three of his races going away without being all out, his ability to stalk early could prove key in a Kentucky Derby that could include a pair of speedsters in Forbidden Kingdom and Epicenter.

Speaking of Forbidden Kingdom, he also debuts on my Top 10 this week. Trained by Hall of Famer Richard Mandella, the Kentucky-bred colt by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah won last Saturday’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.

Opening a sizable seven-length advantage after the opening half-mile, Forbidden Kingdom proved uncatchable. He reached the finish 5 3/4 lengths in front. Forbidden Kingdom went into the San Felipe off a front-running victory in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes. The San Felipe was his first race beyond seven furlongs and around two turns.

The Santa Anita Derby is next for Forbidden Kingdom, who is scheduled to have a rematch with Messier in that 1 1/8-mile affair. When Messier won Del Mar’s Grade III Bob Hope Stakes by 3 1/2 lengths at seven furlongs last Nov. 14, Forbidden Kingdom finished second. But Forbidden Kingdom was thrown off his game when he stumbled at the start that day.

Even without racing last week, the Saffie Joseph Jr.-trained White Abarrio moves up three notches on this week’s Top 10 to No. 5. Why? White Abarrio’s daylight win in the Holy Bull over Simplification in the Holy Bull was flattered by what happed in the Fountain of Youth.

“I’m a big believer in form lines as far as horses that you beat come back and run well, so to see Sano’s horse [Simplification] come back and run like that was big for us,” Joseph said to Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch.

Considering White Abarrio outran Simplification by 4 1/2 lengths in the Holy Bull, you might wonder why I have Simplification ranked higher than White Abarrio on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. That’s a good question. The answer is that I actually was more impressed by Simplification finishing second after his bad start in the Holy Bull than by the winner. But I also now recognize that perhaps I was not giving White Abarrio enough credit for winning the race.

White Abarrio and Simplification are slated to face each other again in the Florida Derby. White Abarrio, a Kentucky-bred Race Day colt, had a sharp four-furlong workout in :47.12 last Sunday at Gulfstream.

I gave consideration to dropping Emmanuel off my Top 10 this week. But I think doing so would be an overreaction to his finishing fourth in the Fountain of Youth.

It was asking a lot of Emmanuel to make his stakes debut last Saturday with just two easy wins under his belt. While he had been a pace factor in his first two starts, that certainly was not the case in the Fountain of Youth.

After being shuffled back the initial strides, Emmanuel found himself eighth early in the field of 11. He rallied to loom menacingly on the far turn, but did not have the needed late punch.

Because Emmanuel had received so much hype, he seemed to rub a number of people the wrong way when he did not come home better than he did. But quite possibly contributing to that was his extremely wide journey. At one point on the backstretch, he was way out there in about the seven path.

Emmanuel lost by 5 1/4 lengths, but he traveled 38 feet (about four lengths) farther than the victorious Simplification, according to Trakus.

Emmanuel finished 1 3/4 lengths behind runner-up In Due Time. Again per Trakus data, Emmanuel traveled a whopping 61 feet farther (about 6 1/2 lengths) farther than In Due Time.

All of which is to say that, under the circumstances, Emmanuel’s effort last Saturday really might not have been as bad as it seemed in the immediate aftermath of his first career loss.

Emmanuel recorded just an 87 Beyer Speed Figure in the Fountain of Youth. His lack of a Beyer higher than 89 to this point is one of the reasons I nearly took him off my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week.

Though Emmanuel emerged from the Fountain of Youth with his perfect record no longer intact, there is no denying that he did get a ton of experience out of this race, which figures to make him much more battle tested going forward.

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher has a very high opinion of Emmanuel. This counts for a lot with me. I, for one, will not be surprised if the Kentucky-bred More Than Ready colt runs a biggie in the Florida Derby or the Grade I Blue Grass at Keeneland on April 9. One of those two races is likely next for Emmanuel, according to Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch.

Dropping off my Top 10 this week are Rattle N Roll and Early Voting.

Rattle N Roll finished 7 1/4 lengths behind Simplification in the Fountain of Youth. It might be fair to give Rattle N Roll a mulligan for this loss due to it being his first race since winning the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last Oct. 9. Still, his layoff notwithstanding, I would have preferred to see more from Rattle N Roll last Saturday. Hence, he leaves my Top 10 this week. But Rattle N Roll certainly can earn his way back onto the Top 10 if he rebounds in his next race, which is expected to be the Grade II Louisiana Derby on March 26.

I really hated to take Early Voting off this week’s Top 10. What has he done wrong? Nothing, other than to sport rather weak Beyers in his only two starts to date. Early Voting received a 76 Beyer in his Dec. 18 maiden win at Aqueduct, then a 78 when he won the Grade III Withers Stakes by 4 1/2 lengths at the Big A on Feb. 5.

Early Voting sat out the Gotham. But his Withers win got something of a boost when runner-up Un Ojo subsequently won Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes.

Nevertheless, when push came to shove, Forbidden Kingdom got the nod for the final spot on my Top 10 this week. The main reason is because his two recent Beyers of 94 and 98 are so superior to Early Voting’s 76 and 78.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Messier
2. Secret Oath
3. Simplification
4. Classic Causeway
5. White Abarrio
6. Morello (new)
7. Smile Happy
8. Emmanuel
9. Epicenter
10. Forbidden Kingdom (new)

Jeff Siegel’s “main players” this week in his Triple Crown rankings are: 1. Messier, 2. Smile Happy, 3. Simplification, 4. Classic Causeway, 5. White Abarrio, 6. Epicenter, 7. Secret Oath, 8. Forbidden Kingdom, 9. Early Voting, 10. Emmanuel, 11. Morello, 12. Zozos, 13. Charge It, 14. Zandon, 15. Mo Donegal, 16. In Due Time.

THORO-GRAPH’S VALUE PROVEN YET AGAIN

I consider Beyer Speed Figures to be a useful tool for horseplayers. As I have stated previously, if I didn’t believe that, I would not refer to those figures as frequently as I do.

But I also have stated previously that I am of the opinion Thoro-Graph numbers are superior to the Beyers. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”

The winner of a race will never get a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second will never get a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.

In the case of the Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the things I love about Thoro-Graph. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.

Morello and Simplification had an excellent Thoro-Graph number to their credit going into last Saturday. They validated those excellent numbers by taking the Gotham and Fountain of Youth.

When Morello won Aqueduct’s Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct on Feb. 6, he received a 1 1/2 Thoro-Graph number. And when Simplification won Gulfstream’s Mucho Macho Man, he got a 2 1/2.

In Due Time, competing in a stakes race for the first time, finished second in the Fountain of Youth. An indication that In Due Time might give a good account of himself last Saturday was his strong Thoro-Graph number of 3 when he won an allowance/optional claimer by 5 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream on Feb. 4.

BUBBLING UNDER MY TOP 10 (IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER)

Azure Coast
Belgrade
Call Me Midnight
Charge It
Cyberknife
Commandperformance
Early Voting
Emmanuel
Ethereal Road
In Due Time
Major General
Mo Donegal
Pappacap
Pinehurst
Pioneer of Medina
Rattle N Roll
Shipsational
Slow Down Andy
We the People
Zandon
Zozos

TAMPA BAY DERBY SELECTIONS

Classic Causeway, who ranks No. 4 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10, is my top choice in this Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby, which has lured a field of 12 to do battle at 1 1/16 miles on what might well turn out to be a wet track.

Trained by Brian Lynch, Classic Causeway was very impressive, I thought, when a 3 3/4-length winner of the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes on Feb. 12 at Tampa Bay Downs. As evidenced by where I have him ranked, I consider Classic Causeway to be a Kentucky Derby contender at this time.

Money Supply proved a punctual 2-1 favorite when unveiled in a six-furlong maiden race at Tampa on Feb. 12. Eighth early, he came on to win by two lengths and received a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. That is a bigger Beyer than Classic Causeway has recorded. Classic Causeway’s top Beyer is a 90.

Major General, who hails from the powerful Pletcher barn, returns following a long layoff. The Kentucky-bred Constitution colt has not raced since winning the Grade III Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs last Sept. 18. He is two for two.

Shipsational has won three of five lifetime starts. He rallied to finish second behind Classic Causeway in the Davis. Eddie Barker trains the New York-bred Midshipman colt.

Belgrade is someone who just might have a big say in the TB Derby at a good price in the betting. He, like Major General, is two for two. Belgrade’s Daily Racing Form past performances show him selling for $45,000 as a yearling. But that’s not the most recent time that he has gone through the auction ring. Carl and Yurie Pascarella shelled out $700,000 to acquire the Kentucky-bred Hard Spun colt at Keeneland this year on Jan. 12.

Formerly conditioned by Brendan Walsh, Belgrade now is being trained by Graham Motion. After kicking off his racing career with a six-length win in a Fair Grounds maiden race at six furlongs on Dec. 18, Belgrade won a seven-furlong allowance/optional claiming race at Tampa on Feb. 19 after stumbling at the start. I think there might be much upside with this colt.

My selections for the Tampa Bay Derby are below:

1. Classic Causeway
2. Money Supply
3. Major General
4. Shipsational

KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGERING

If you are so inclined, you can make a bet or two or more in Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) this week. In addition to win and exacta future wagering being offered on the Kentucky Derby, an Oaks-Derby Future Wager linking the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby is on the betting menu.

KDFW Pool 4 wagering commences Friday (March 11) at noon ET and concludes Sunday (March 13) at 6 p.m. ET.

As usual, KDFW Pool 4 consists of 23 individual horses, plus an “all other 3-year-olds” option, which is listed at morning line odds of 6-1.

Once again there are no Baffert-trained horses among the 23 individual horses. That’s because Baffert currently is banned from entering a horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

The 5-1 morning-line favorite in KDFW Pool 4 is Forbidden Kingdom. Perhaps he will end up being the favorite when the pool closes Sunday, but I have my doubts. I think there are too many people at this point who question whether he can win at 1 1/4 miles for him to be the favorite. I’m thinking the favorite will be either Epicenter or Smile Happy, or maybe Simplification. Heck, if Classic Causeway wins the Tampa Bay Derby, perhaps he will turn out to be the KDFW Pool 4 favorite at the close of betting.

I will say that, in my opinion, playing Forbidden Kingdom at around 5-1 is a terrible bet. The odds are just way too low. Don’t forget, if a horse you bet on in KDFW Pool 4 does not start, you do not get a refund. For any horse under 10-1, or maybe even under 15-1, you really should wait until race day. If you bet on a horse on race day and the horse scratches, you do get a refund.

What you generally want to shop for with any future wager is taking a shot at a big payoff with a horse at a really nice price. For instance, I mentioned that I have an $80 Kentucky Derby future bet on Morello in Las Vegas at 125-1. He is just 10-1 on the morning line for KDFW Pool 4.

Also, if you are possibly going make a KDFW Pool 4 bet on Classic Causeway (15-1 morning line), Happy Boy Rocket (50-1), Major General (50-1) or Shipsational (50-1), be sure to wait until after seeing how they do in Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby. If, for example, Happy Boy Rocket, Major General or Shipsational were to win Saturday, no doubt their final odds in KDFW Pool 4 will be much lower than the morning line price.

Prior to the close of KDFW Pool 3, I wrote: “One [Sam F.] Davis runner to especially keep an eye on, I think, is Classic Causeway, who I have ranked No. 6 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. He is listed at a juicy 50-1 on the morning line for KDFW Pool 3. If Classic Causeway does win the Davis, no doubt his price will end up being much shorter than 50-1. But he still might be a decent enough of a price (30-1? 20-1?) to put a few bucks on him. Of course, if Classic Causeway does not win the Davis, betting him in KDFW Pool 3 really does not make much sense regardless of his price.”

Well, as it turned out, Classic Causeway did win the Davis. He wound up closing at 13-1 in KDFW Pool 3, a far cry from his 50-1 morning line.

Early Voting and Charge It, both at 30-1 on the KDFW Pool 4 morning line, look interesting to me.

This seems to be a nice price on the undefeated and untested Early Voting. Next for the Chad Brown-trained Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt is the Wood Memorial following his victory in the Withers Stakes.

The word is trainer Todd Pletcher plans to run Charge It next in the Florida Derby. The Kentucky-bred Tapit colt won a one-mile maiden race by 8 1/2 lengths at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 12 in his second career start.

A couple of 50-1 longshots on the KDFW Pool 4 morning line that might be worth putting a few dollars on are the Brad Cox-trained Cyberknife and Zozos. These two colts both appear to have much talent. And at 50-1 or thereabouts, the price is right.

Below are the morning-line odds for Pool 4 of the 2022 KDFW:

No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)

1. Barber Road (50-1)
2. Call Me Midnight (50-1)
3. Charge It (30-1)
4. Classic Causeway (15-1)
5. Cyberknife (50-1)
6. Early Voting (30-1)
7. Emmanuel (15-1)
8. Epicenter (8-1)
9; Ethereal Road (50-1)
10. Forbidden Kingdom (5-1)
11. In Due Time (30-1)
12. Major General (50-1)
13. Mo Donegal (12-1)
14. Morello (10-1)
15. Pioneer of Medina (30-1)
16. Rattle N Roll (20-1)
17. Shipsational (50-1)
18. Simplification (12-1)
19. Smile Happy (6-1)
20. Un Ojo (50-1)
21. White Abarrio (15-1)
22. Zandon (12-1)
23. Zozos (50-1)
24. “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (6-1)

KENTUCKY OAKS FUTURE WAGERING

Below are the morning-line odds for what will be the only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager pool:

No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)

1. A Mo Reay (30-1)
2. Ain’t Easy (20-1)
3. Awake At Midnyte (20-1)
4. Bernabreezy (50-1)
5. Bubble Rock (30-1)
6. Classy Edition (15-1)
7. Echo Zulu (4-1)
8. Fannie and Freddie (30-1)
9. Favor (20-1)
10. Goddess of Fire (20-1)
11. Hidden Connection (50-1)
12. Ice Orchid (50-1)
13. Juju’s Map (10-1)
14. Kathleen O. (8-1)
15. Nest (8-1)
16. Nostalgic (20-1)
17. Sandstone (15-1)
18. Secret Oath (6-1)
19. Shahama (30-1)
20. Turnerloose (15-1)
21. Venti Valentine (15-1)
22. Veterans Highway (50-1)
23. Yuugirl (50-1)
24. “All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies” (10-1)

NTRA TOP THROUGHBRED POLL

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll is below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 354 Life Is Good (33)
2. 268 Letruska (1)
3. 206 Colonel Liam
4. 204 Express Train (1)
5. 203 Hot Rod Charlie
5. 154 Flightline (1)
7. 94 Mandaloun
8. 73 Speaker’s Corner
9. 79 Midnight Bourbon
10. 75 Country Grammer

NTRA TOP 3-YEAR-OLD POLL

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll is below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 295 Epicenter (0)
2. 281 Forbidden Kingdom (8)
3. 220 Simplification
3. 203 Messier (12)
5. 174 Smile Happy (3)
6. 161 Classic Causeway
7. 129 White Abarrio
7. 103 Morello
9. 88 Secret Oath (3)
10. 63 Zandon (1)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:14 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

March 12, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

Hawthorne Racecourse has an 8-race card set for this evening. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 5. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5

3-Admit (8-1)-This mare has been in tall cotton the entire meet. Finally, lands in a realistic level for success and should be a solid price.
7-Rojo Caliente (7/2)-Team Leonard trainee makes its 3rd start at the Open level and has held her own. Actually, the last race was a strong try on a sloppy track and hadn't shown an affinity to wet surfaces (6-0-0-2). Comes right back and it's best to not overlook.

Race 6

3-Loulita (7/2)-This Searle trainee has been in dull form this year and tried a new plan last week of getting on the engine. That effort fell short but like the one below, should be a main player versus this kind.
8-Louzotic (3-1)-Was jammed up down the stretch in last but wasn't winning anyway. Looking for a more aggressive drive tonight and really has no excuse at this level.

Race 7

3-Martha Max (5/2)-Tepid morning line chalk takes a plunge and may have found a beatable field. This mare usually finds ways to lose and is only 1-28. But the Eaton barn has been doing well and will respect connections.
4-Bad Medicine (9/2)-Usually makes HoP its home and this is the 2nd start of the meet. Could be racing to get into shape for the opening of Hoosier and fits with this crew. Raced well last week on a sloppy track and went the back half in 57.2 in the 1st start since 11-6.

Race 8

3-Illustrate (6-1)-Received an efficient steer to win last week and is back in versus the same kind. Winner in 3 of 7 at Haw and Franco could work the same plan tonight.
4-Shooting Brooke (7-1)-One move type caught the right trip and beat this kind in last. There isn't a true standout in this field and the same could happen here. Looking for some value in this leg and will shoot against #9 the program chalk.
7-Dune Dame (5-1)-Hasn't done much during this meet but has a shot versus this field. Comes off a better effort and will look for Leonard to be in striking range coming into the lane.
8-Sweet Vivian (6-1)-Recent form has been dull but takes a good drop and should like this company. Gets a positive driver's change with Seekman taking a seat and could offer a nice price.

0.50 Pick 4

3,7/3,8/3,4/3,4,7,8
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-12-2022, 09:15 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis - March 12, 2022

March 12, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 4-Barristan The Bold; 10-Psycho Dar; 2-Mr. Lovejoy

Forecast: Barristan The Bold (TOC=3-1: ML=3-1) is wheeled back on short rest (six days) after winning a $40,000 seller over this course and distance from off the pace. This $25,000 starter’s allowance dash is well within his scope, but the quick turnaround is clearly a concern. We’ll use him but certainly not single him. Psycho Dar (TOC=2-1; ML=5/2) returns from the Bay Area after a series of sharp all-weather races with numbers that make him a solid fit at this level. First or second in six of 12 career starts over the Santa Anita turf course, the veteran gelding has changed his style from a speed type to a closer and surely will see plenty of heat today that will compliment his style. The far outside draw, however, is a major concern. Price players should consider tossing in Mr. Lovejoy (TOC=10-1; ML=81) somewhere on their ticket. He’s run well sprinting on turf in the past, remains protected in a sign of confidence after being claimed for $25,000 two races back, and hails from the hot V. Cerin barn. He’s a lifetime winner of 14 races with the kind of early zip that makes him dangerous at this five-furlong trip.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 5-Work to Live; 2-Nang Singha

Forecast: This maiden $75,000 sprint for sophomore fillies drew just five entrants, so there’s not much we can do with it. Work to Live was overmatched in a straight maiden turf sprint last time out but returns to the maiden claiming ranks and ran well enough in her debut at Los Alamitos (in a maiden $50,000 event) to warrant top billing by default. Drawn comfortably outside, switching to F. Prat, and removing blinkers, the T. Yakteen-trained daughter of Outwork projects to inherit the role as the controlling speed and have every chance to lead throughout. Nang Singha closed a gap to be a distant second in her debut vs. slightly softer foes, gets an extra half-furlong to work with today, and is the one to fear most. A recent sharp half mile drill (:47 2/5, third fastest of 40) may be significant. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise leave alone.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Carroll Girl

Forecast: Carroll Girl shows two strong recent races over the Santa Anita turf course, most recently when finishing a solid second at this same one-mile distance in a race that earned a sharp speed figure. A repeat of that performance today should be good enough, and with F. Prat staying aboard, the R. Baltas-trained filly looks all set to graduate. A healthy recent series of works at San Luis Rey Downs is another positive factor. At 5/2 on the morning line, the daughter of First Samurai offers good value both in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-Scary Fast Smile

Forecast: Scary Fast Smile (TOC=6/5; ML=8/5) is listed at 8/5 on the morning line and may go lower following a fast, highly rated win vs. state-bred foes here last month. He will tackle open company today, but in his present form the D. O’Neill-trained gelding should have no issues scoring right back while facing just four rivals. It seems significant that F. Prat stays aboard and clearly has preferred this son of Smiling Tiger over the race’s other main contender and a colt he's ridden in his last two starts, Escape Route (TOC=5/2; ML=9/5).

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RACE 5: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-Harbored Memories; 1-Vantastic; 3-Gregdar

Forecast: The main contention in this second-level turf sprint is drawn inside, with the prototype turf sprinter Harbored Memories (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2) getting the edge on top despite being away since August. A two-time winner over the local lawn, the M. Puype-trained colt has worked well enough to be fit and ready for a stable that has superior stats with layoff runners, so at 5/2 on the morning line the Washington-bred colt looks well-spotted to fire his best shot. Vantastic (TOC=3-1; ML=3-1) and Gregdar (TOC=6-1; ML=4-1) finished third and fifth, respectively, in a Hillside event at this level last month, both finishing well but a tad too late. Neither will have any issue with the switch to the flat course, and with some help up front both should be heard from close home. All three should be included in rolling exotic play with the main push going to Harbored Memories.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B+
Single: 3-Street Ruckus

Forecast: Street Ruckus (TOC=8/5; ML=5/2) suffered a tough beat at this level last month over nine furlongs on turf when cutting out fast fractions, leading the way into the lane but then getting tagged right near the wire while earning a career top number. Today, the V. Cerin-trained gelding shortens to a mile, returns to the main track, and projects to be the controlling speed in a field in which the closing types – such as 1-for-22 Bud Knight – look suspect. If he can continue his improving pattern, or merely duplicate his last race under these conditions, the son of Street Boss should be hard to beat, so at 5/2 on the morning line let’s take a stand and make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 7: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Travel Smart

Forecast: Travel Smart (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2) has much in her favor in this starter’s allowance turf miler for sophomore fillies. The daughter of Gormley exits a couple of stakes races (didn’t run badly in either) and is eligible for this race for having broken her maiden for $50,000 over this course and distance last fall. She removes blinkers, adds Lasix, picks up Johnny V., and should benefit from faster-than-par early fractions to compliment her late-running style. At 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:18 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 7-Take a Leap; 5-Busy Paynter; 1-A New Peace

Forecast: Tough race. We’ll go three deep in rolling exotic play in this $12,500 claiming sprint for fillies and mares without any real conviction. Take a Leap (TOC=9/5; ML=7/2) is a first-off-the-claim play for S. Miyadi following two strong efforts over a mile and if she has one good one left the veteran mare may be hard to beat. Effective at any distance when she’s on her game, the 7-year-old mare looks capable of producing a winning late kick. Busy Paynter, (TOC=7/2; ML=3-1) claimed in her last pair, projects to have a strong pace presence, is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, and is exiting a productive race, so the K. Mulhall-trained mare is a major player and a “must use.” A New Peace, (TOC=8-1; ML=4-1) like our top pick, shows the route-to-sprint angle and from an inside draw seems likely to be asked for early speed. The transfer from turf to dirt won’t be an issue, so if she can shake loose early under hot bug boy D. Herrera, she could get brave late.

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RACE 9: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Say the Word; 6-Acclimate

Forecast: Simply stated, we were underwhelmed by the performance of Say The Word (TOC=9/5; ML=5/2) in the San Marcos S.-G2 in late January. Impressive winner of the Hollywood Turf Cup-G2 at Del Mar in his previous outing, the veteran gelding was cold on the board and didn’t really fire when a non-threatening third of five despite getting hot fractions to run at. That race, however, was at a mile and one-quarter and today the son of More Than Ready gets his preferred marathon trip while picking up F. Prat, so even though he’s winless in three starts over the local lawn, we’ll give the P. D’Amato-trained veteran a good chance to regain his winning form. His stablemate Acclimate (TOC=7/2; ML=4-1) once again projects as the controlling speed, and though he’s a glaring zero-for-five at this 12-furlong journey, he did win the mile and three-quarters San Juan Capistrano S.-G2 here last summer, so we know he can handle the distance. A five-time winner at Santa Anita, the eight-year-old son of Acclamation always must be respected.