Friday 5/13/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Belmont Park Picks: Maker's Amalfi Princess the value play on May 13
By J.N. Campbell


Belmont Park Picks - Friday, May 13, 2022

Race 1: 4-1/1A-5-2
Race 2: 6-1-2-3
Race 3: 3-5-4-1/1A
Race 4: 8-6-3-12
Race 5: 5-8-6-2
Race 6: 6-3-8-4
Race 7: 2-4-1-7
Race 8: 2-3-4-6
Race 9: 3-10-6-2
**Most Likely: Sweet Mia #2 (Race 8)**
**Best Value: Easy Time #6 (Race 6)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 8: Sweet Mia #2, 3/1):

The well-meant mare by The Big Beast is going to try and get a win at Belmont for the 1st time in her career. She comes from a solid barn, and even though Charlie Baker doesn’t have an expansive establishment, he can get the job done. Last out on a muddy surface at Aqueduct, she missed the board after having to go very wide in a similar class of race to this one. The only question is her jockey … Joel Rosario was under the weather on Thursday, and had to be taken off his mounts. Regardless, this one looks like a winner … especially with some nice odds that should hover around 3/1. She is a bet …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #2



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 6: Easy Time #6, 10/1):

Here is a turfer that just needed a race under his belt, in order to get his ’22 started. The HOF trainer sent him to Turfway Park back in March, and we can surmise that his runner did not care too much for the Tapeta. Not all rubberized tracks are the same because last summer he won nicely at Woodbine. I am inclined to overlook that poor showing, and instead pursue this line of inquiry that he will be ready to fire. Dylan Davis gets the call, and lest we forget, this runner was up against some tough “graded” company last year.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #6 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 7: Turf, 6F, AOC62.5kn2x, F&M 3+):

I want no part of Tom Morley’s 3-yr-old filly by Runhappy. Fifth Anniversary #1 is facing older females, and that is a tough spot to be in. I am sure Christophe Clement’s Bye Bye #4 will end up towards the top of the tote, so there is not much value there … When it comes to my pick, I am game to back a Mike Maker runner that I have followed for over a year. By Temple City, Amalfi Princess #2 is much more talented than her record or her odds reflect. Last year, the Three Diamonds-owned turf miler turned into a sprinter, and was always up against tough stakes or ALLW Co. I have always thought she just needed the right opportunity to shine. This might be it … going 6F on the grass at Belmont. Her class and current form is not that far off of say, the Clement entry. I am going to get a superb price on this one, and the addition of Luis Saez suits me just fine. His grass exploits just keep getting better, and I like how he finds holes when he needs to down the lane. Let's construct an Exacta that takes advantage of this price horse. Here we go …

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Wheel, 2 w 1/4

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Churchill Downs Picks: Promise Keeper has something to prove in R8 on May 13
By J.N. Campbell


Churchill Downs Picks - Friday, May 13, 2022

Race 1: 4-5-2-1
Race 2: 6-7-4-5
Race 3: 4-2-1-3
Race 4: 8-4-7-1
Race 5: 9-7-1-4
Race 6: 2-7-3-8
Race 7: 8-2-5-7
Race 8: 4-10-3-1
Race 9: 10-12-3-7
**Most Likely: More Romance #2 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Uninvited Guest #8 (Race 4)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 6: More Romance #2, 10/1):

It might seem odd to pick a 10/1 shot as the “Most Likely Winner,” but I think this filly by More Than Ready is just that … more than ready to win. She was a claim last fall from the barn of Ron Moquett, and trainer Marianne Scherer started “working her back” down at the Fair Grounds in March. I think she catches a somewhat easy field, and will be up for the turnback in distance. She was running as a miler last year. What I particularly like is the addition of Reylu Gutierrez, who in my opinion, is perfectly suited to handle dirt sprint runners. He is an aggressive gate jockey, and I find that he knows how to hustle his mount out for the lead. This could be one of my best picks … I wouldn’t miss out.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #2



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 4: Uninvited Guest #8, 6/1):

Trainer Steve Margolis has a history in the training biz, and even though he has a small stable, that doesn’t mean he cannot challenge the larger barns at Churchill. This 3-yr-old colt by Distorted Humor did not get to try the Stall Course at the Fair Grounds last time out because it was an off-track day. He was stepping up in company from MC50k open company. He dueled on the dirt, but he had to settle for Show. A former member of Todd Pletcher’s outfit, I think he is ready to take on this Starter band with Joe Rocco in the saddle. With 3 solid works to his credit, plus a strong ability to rate, he could be ready to take on some older, more experienced runners.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #8 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 1 1/16th, OC80kn3x, 3+):

Here is an interesting contest on this Friday at Churchill, and it brings together a strong group of 10 older males. You will probably remember Todd Pletcher’s Promise Keeper #10 from last year when he won the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes. In ’22 he already has a pair of races under his saddle, and they were not for the faint of heart ... the Razorback (G3) at Oaklawn, and the New Orleans Classic (G2) at the Fair Grounds. Having to run against Plainsman and the Olympiad was no small task, and he has a legitimate excuse for why he didn't win in either of those contests. Coming into this softer spot with Tyler Gaffalione aboard, one would think this is a cinch … but I am not so certain. Afterall, 9 others have drawn-in too, and some of those look pretty enticing. For instance, I like Greg Foley’s Major Fed #4, a horse by Ghostzapper that is making his 3rd start of the year. A homebred, this 5-yr-old was up against some tough company in an OC80kn3x race at Keeneland last time. He posted a strong speed fig., gets a rider switch to Florent Geroux with Gaffalione on the favorite, and is not without some nice class. The price will be right at 10/1. One other runner that looks interesting is Al Stall’s Masqueparade #3. The colt is a 4-yr-old, and was last seen in the Travers S. (G1) at Saratoga against Essential Quality. Coming off-the-bench is never easy, but clearly the reigning Ohio Derby (G3) champ can make a splash in this spot as he starts his ’22 campaign. Let’s use both of these on top, and maybe they can get the best of the Pletcher ace.

Wagering Recommendation: Exacta Wheel, 3/4 w 10

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Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Friday, May 13

By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

AINTREE

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

5.15 Baasem

5.50 Gaelik Coast

6.25 Dominic's Fault

7.00 Dorking Boy

7.35 Empire De Maulde

8.10 Taragrace

8.45 Intrepide Sud

GIMCRACK

5.15 Baasem

5.50 Shang Tang

6.25 Dominic's Fault

7.00 Captain Morgs

7.35 Sail Away

8.10 Merry Berry

8.45 Intrepide Sud


NEWBURY

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.00 Grey Fox

1.30 The Foxes

2.05 Bernardo O'Reilly

2.40 Whitebeam

3.15 Sea Dart

3.50 Swiss Mistress

4.20 Victory

GIMCRACK

1.00 Brunel Charm

1.30 Mysterious Night

2.05 Puerto De Vega

2.40 Morghom

3.15 Zabeir

3.50 Saigon

4.20 Independent Act


YORK

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.50 Primrose Ridge

2.25 Fonteyn

3.00 Rogue Bear

3.35 Search For A Song (nap)

4.10 Al Qareem

4.45 Challet (nb)

5.20 Josies Kid

GIMCRACK

1.50 Daytona Lady

2.25 Grande Dame (nb)

3.00 Rogue Bear (nap)

3.35 Max Vega

4.10 Wild Crusade

4.45 Mossbawn

5.20 Korker

Newmarket – 2.25 Grande Dame (nap); 3.00 Rogue Bear (nb).

Northerner – 4.45 Il Bandito (nb); 5.20 Catch Cunningham (nap).

HAMILTON

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

5.40 Malrescia

6.10 Mackenzie Rose

6.45 Hostelry

7.20 Farhan

7.55 Iris Dancer

8.25 Rain Cap

8.55 Stronsay

GIMCRACK

5.40 Malrescia

6.10 Mackenzie Rose

6.45 Hostelry

7.20 Get Shirty

7.55 Thornaby Pearl

8.25 Fircombe Hall

8.55 The Gloaming



NEWMARKET

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.10 North Lincoln

1.40 Dashing Dick

2.15 Pisanello

2.50 Soapy Stevens

3.25 Mighty Ulysses

4.00 Flyin' High

4.35 As If By Chance

GIMCRACK

1.10 North Lincoln

1.40 Beauty Choice

2.15 Pisanello

2.50 Going Gone

3.25 Mighty Ulysses

4.00 Arctic Emperor

4.35 Brazen Bolt

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Mucciolo: Belmont Trifecta of the Day for May 14
John Mucciolo

A quartet of graded stakes races will highlight a huge Saturday of racing at Belmont Park. To get the day off on the right foot and pad my bankroll early, I will take aim at the opener to get things off to a fast start on the card.
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight

New York-bred runners will dash six panels on the dirt in the opener in a race that I like a lot. A total of nine are signed on, and I feel that #6 Devil Boy (5-2) is the one to beat while making his third lifetime start. Trained by Jeremiah Englehart, the four-year-old colt has displayed a decent turn of foot in both career engagements to date while running into very talented foes. The chestnut has been off for a while, but he runs for a conditioner who is solid off the shelf and retains the services of regular rider Jose Ortiz.

Devil Boy, a $75,000 yearling purchase, will be giving weight to most of his counterparts on Saturday but I don’t consider that to be a major problem. If the colt breaks well and doesn’t have too much to do turning for home, then I think he will be the one moving best of all late as the key in my wager.

#3 Eminency (7-2) appears to be a must use for Rudy Rodriguez. The son of Cupid has burned a lot of money in his career thus far, but he has been second in four-of-five and gets in light at 113 pounds with fine apprentice Jose Gomez in the silks. Eminency can run from on or off the pace and is a most logical top-three contender.

#9 Fortune’s Nephew (4-1) debuts for Bruce Levine, who is a capable first-out conditioner. The Bellamy Road gelding is training fast and gets Irad Ortiz, so if he takes early money, then he could be a live one from a good outside post slot.

And for value, #8 Our Son Jake (12-1) intrigues me in his first run of the season. The Tiznow colt ran evenly in a tough spot at first asking, prior to being outrun by a fine winner in his two-year-old finale. The sophomore colt is training forwardly as of late and gets Dylan Davis to ride.

I could make a case for any of the maidens for the lower rungs of the gimmicks as I don’t see a lot of separation with the other six contenders.
Trifecta Wager

$2 trifecta 6 with 3, 8, 9 with all ($42)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Horses in Focus for Friday, May 13
Posted on May 12, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 4: MY GAL VAL (#4)

There are some intriguing first time starters in this maiden claiming affair, including the Generazio-bred #12 Mister Chairman. However, it can’t be a good sign that this half-brother to Jaipur winner Disco Partner by Into Mischief is debuting for $40k as a 4-year-old. Some may also make a case for #9 Electrolyzer, who goes out for the dangerous Jorge Abreu barn. He picks up Irad Ortiz, but doesn’t have the most convincing turf pedigree. I generally preferred those with more experience. #11 Suit of Armor seems like the most reliable option based on his turf races for last year. He ran particularly well in that Sep. 4 maiden affair at Saratoga, and then got a wide trip in his next start at Belmont. I don’t want to read too much into his dirt form since then because that’s just not his preferred surface. However, it is reasonable to wonder whether Bonnie Lucas can get this horse back into the same form that he achieved for Brad Cox. There are some more lightly raced runners to consider at better prices. I found #1 Ableton to be somewhat interesting on the cutback in distance. He wasn’t really competitive in either turf start at Gulfstream, but his dam was a pure sprinter on grass. There are also some first time turfers to consider. #2 Be the Boss has pedigree as a half-brother to multiple turf winners Colonel Tom and Turbo Drive. My top pick is #4 My Gal Val, who switches surfaces after trying a much tougher maiden special weight event on the dirt in his career debut. He actually showed some decent speed chasing the leaders that day before fading in the stretch. He’s a half-brother to one turf winner, and looks like one that shouldn’t mind the switch to grass.

RACE 6: PRICE TALK (#4)

Tony Dutrow holds a pretty strong hand in this optional claimer, sending out two major players. The one who could go favored is #2 Buy Land and See. This 5-year-old actually ran pretty well on the main track over the winter, but seemed to appreciate the return to turf last time. He got off to an awkward start, getting squeezed back coming out of the chute, and had to use some energy after that to run up into his preferred stalking position. He struck the front in upper stretch, but just couldn’t quite hold off the classy Flop Shot. A repeat of that performance will make him tough to beat, and he should appreciate the slight cutback to a mile. Yet I prefer Dutrow’s other runner at a slightly better price. #4 Price Talk will race for a $62,500 tag, having already beaten this allowance condition last fall. He took advantage of some pace up front that day, earning a career-best 122 TimeformUS Speed Figure as he ran down the aforementioned Flop Shot. I won’t hold his Red Smith against him, since 1 3/8 miels is just too far. I was hoping to see a little more in his return from the layoff in the Danger’s Hour, but chasing wide from off the pace on that early April turf course at Aqueduct may not have been the right trip. He’s capable of better and gets reunited with winning rider Castellano. I found both of these more appealing than #3 High Tide, who is in great form right now. However, he’s gotten good trips and rides in his last two starts and is moving up in class to face a much tougher field this time. The one price horse I considered is #6 Easy Time, who should appreciate stretching back out on grass. However, he would need to produce a career-best to beat this salty field.

RACE 8: MOSIENKO (#5)

I’ve never been the biggest fan of #4 Bustin Bay, who figures to go favored here on the slight drop in class. She ran on decently to be second at the $32k level last time, but she wasn’t facing a particularly tough field. Overall I don’t think she’s really gotten back to her blowout victory in the mud over the winter at Aqueduct when she was aided by a track bias. She’s arguably the one to beat, but I would never take a short price on her. I could understand making a case for dropdown #3 She’s a Black Belt off the layoff, though I think it’s curious her connections didn’t find a spot where she could be in for a claiming waiver. #2 Sweet Mia also has a race or two that puts her in the mix, but I think she’ll be overbet with Joel Rosario climbing aboard. I was most interested in the two mares drawn outside who are both turning back from a mile. #6 Shadolamo was my pick at 14-1 that day and I thought she ran a gallant race to just miss. She’s probably best going a bit farther than today’s 6 1/2 furlongs, but she’s versatile enough to come from off the pace. She also never takes any money despite putting up competitive figures. My top pick is #5 Mosienko, who I think will really benefit from this turnback in distance. A mile is just too far for her, but she actually made some decent progress coming past the quarter pole last time before flattening out. Prior to that she had faced some tougher fields at the state-bred N2X condition, which obscures her otherwise good form. She typically shows up when she’s spotted appropriately, and will be a price due to the low-profile connections.

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Busan Friday: Race-By-Race Preview (May 13)

Korean Derby weekend gets underway with action at Busan on Friday where there are 8 race from 12:00 to 18:00. Here are the previews:

Busan Race 1: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

Three-year-old maiden fillies in the opener and it’s hard to look past (4) PYEONGHWA CHUKJE. She ran 4th on debut before improving to a narrow 2nd on her reappearance on April 8th. She was on pace both times, leading until the closing stages and from a good gate should get a soft lead here and go all the way this time. (7) LET IT GO debuted in that April 8th race and from a wide gate got well back early and only managed to run on for 7th. She should have come on for that run and with a slightly draw today, can get closer. (6) GASOK DAY has been consistent across four outings to date with the best being a 2nd place at this distance in March. She will be expected to be on pace in this company and should go close. (8) TWO TWO COIN and (9) HUIMANG PUNCH are others who can improve, the latter having looked well in an April trial.
Selections (4) Pyeonghwa Chukje (7) Let It Go (6) Gasok Day (8) Two Two Coin
Next Best 9, 2
Fast Start 4, 6, 8, 9

Busan Race 2: Class 6 (1300M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

(6) QUEEN’S DAERO just about gets the nod here based on her latest outing on April 15th when she ran an improved 2nd at this distance having managed to find a handy position from a wide draw and ran on well behind Global Choego and ahead of a couple of today’s rivals. She gets a better gate today and won’t need to improve much on that run to win this. Having never previously finished in the top five, (9) URI JOEUNNAL ran on for a surprise 2nd place at 1200M on April 17th. She carries the same light weight again and in this limited company, can run into some money again. (10) NAREUCAT comes back in trip following a solid 3rd in a small field at 1400M on April 22nd. Her running style means the draw shouldn’t be a problem and she will be in the placing hunt here. (7) B.K. HANA and (11) BAEDARI GANGHO are among other placing contenders.
Selections (6) Queen’s Daero (9) Uri Joeunnal (10) Nareucat (7) B.K. Hana
Next Best 11, 1
Fast Start 2, 4, 5, 7

Busan Race 3: Class 6 (1600M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

Small but competitive field here. (8) B.J. CHIEF has mixed his form across five starts so far but has a 3rd place to his name at this distance in a fair time and comes in having overcome the widest draw to come from off the place and run 3rd over 1300M just two weeks ago. In this field, he can be on pace or handy and it could be his day. The main danger is (7) WONDERFUL BOBCAT. He is two starts into a comeback following almost a year on the sidelines and has put in two promising performances in 3rd and 5th, both at 1300M and both times running on. He could be peaking third-up here. (5) BOUNTY HUNTER comes back up in trip. He is on a run of consistent, if unspectacular performances and he can grind his way to a minor money finish again here. (9) AGAIN HELEN and (1) DOCTOR CANDY are others who can enter the calculations.
Selections (8) B.J. Chief (7) Wonderful Bobcat (5) Bounty Hunter (9) Again Helen
Next Best 1, 4
Fast Start 1, 6, 7, 8

Busan Race 4: Class 5 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

(2) DONGBU WORLD is yet to win but is yet to finish any worse than 4th on four outings so far. His first three near-misses brought him up in class and he ran well for 3rd place on his first try at this level over 1200M on April 15th when he was on pace throughout, briefly leading in the home straight. Nicely drawn, he only comes up 1kg and he can win here. (1) KKUM NEOMEO was a 16/1 winner on debut over this distance on March 25th when he made all. He is up in class here but carries the same light weight as on debut and draws the same inside barrier. It wouldn’t be a surprise were he to win again. The rest of the field are fillies (and one mare). (6) GREEN CHEETAH has won at this distance and has since registered back-to-back 4th places at this class. She can be on pace here and be in this a long way. (7) BORAMI and (8) GLOBAL YEOSIN are others in the frame.
Selections (2) Dongbu World (1) Kkum Neomeo (6) Green Cheetah (7) Borami
Next Best 8, 9
Fast Start 1, 6, 7, 9

Busan Race 5: Class 5 (1800M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

Since getting his maiden win over a mile in early March, (7) ORANGE GARAGE has raced twice at this class and distance and finished in 3rd place on both occasions, both times racing handy to the speed and in the process registering a time at the distance faster than any of the others in this field have managed. He does come up a little in the weights but in this small field will be handy again and may take some beating. (3) HOLLYWOOD QUEEN ran on very pleasingly for 4th over a mile last time out. She carries a feather weight here and should be available at an each-way price again. (2) CENTUM THOR is yet to win in fifteen starts but has been ultra-consistent with twelve to-five finishes. He has a 2nd place at this class and distance (beaten twelve-lengths by Lucas Sun) and will be there or thereabouts again. (5) ADELE BOSS and (8) WONDERFUL SECRET can also be considered.
Selections (7) Orange Garage (3) Hollywood Queen (2) Centum Thor (5) Adele Boss
Next Best 8, 1
Fast Start 2, 5, 6, 7

Busan Race 6: Class 4 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

Another Peter Wolsley-trainee goes on top here. (2) CLEAR was a winner on debut all the way back in December 2020 before missing the entire 2021 season and finally returning this January. He has improved in each of his three starts since including a 2nd place in a fast time (assisted by a muddy and fast track) at this distance on March 20th. He draws great, carries an amenable weight, and can win. (10) ALIVE STAR is the logical second pick. He was a class and distance winner on April 8th when he sat handy early before striking the front on the turn and running on for a very comfortable score. He comes up a full 6kg in the weights for that effort but has run well under today’s weight before and he can be dangerous again. (9) GOLDEN BYEORAK races for the first time since January when he was a good 3rd at class and distance. He has never finished worse than 4th and has run well first-up in the past. He can settle midfield and run on here. (12) BOLAVEN and (11) CHOEGANG LIGER also in the placing frame.
Selections (2) Clear (10) Alive Star (9) Golden Byeorak (12) Bolaven
Next Best 11, 8
Fast Start 2, 5, 10, 12

Busan Race 7: Class 4 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

(5) BEOLMAUI STAR was an eye-catching winner on his first two stars in November and December but he has made a stuttering start to his three-year-old season finishing 3rd when an odds-on favourite in January over 1400M before having another three-months out and returning in the KRA Cup Mile on April 17th when he was on pace early but soon ran out of energy. This is a much more suitable assignment and he could return to winning ways. (8) USURP won back to back races in January and February to rapidly get promoted to this level. He comes in having run 2nd at class and distance on April 8th when on pace and will be close again today. (1) DONGTEUJA BOY is a winner at this distance and comes in off a decent 3rd place at this class on February 25th. He has had a couple of months off since then and coming in fresh and from a good gate, may suit. (6) JUST WIN and (2) GOLDEN also have place claims.
Selections (5) Beolmaui Star (8) Usurp (1) Dongteuja Boy (6) Just Win
Next Best 2, 10
Fast Start 3, 4, 5, 10

Busan Race 8: Class 3 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 75 Million

A very competitive finale in which plenty have winning claims. With a rating of 50, (8) BUSANHANG GALMAEGI is still eligible for class 4 but in taking a swing at this, comes down a full 7kg from his 4th place at this distance at class 4 level three weeks ago. He will need to improve here as he hasn’t yet posted the kind of times that some of today’s rivals have but he should have enough speed to get to the lead and he can measure up. (5) MUJEOK BULPAE and (7) NEU DAT race one another again. On April 15th Neu Dat finished 1st and Mujeok Bulpae 2nd at class and distance with Neu Dat pretty much making all. They both come up in the weights here but it’s to Mujeok Bulpae’s favour and he can overturn the form from that day. (2) FLAT BABE and (11) WORLD SOCKS among many others who can compete for at least the places.
Selections (8) Busanhang Galmaegi (5) Mujeok Bulpae (7) Neu Dat (2) Flat Babe
Next Best 11, 4
Fast Start 1, 7, 8, 11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Park 5 Facts | May 9-16, 2022

May 10, 2022 | By 1/ST BET

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$244,931 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

G3 $125,000 Santa Barbara // distaff turf marathoners // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Best Speed Last (43%, +$57.20)

Avg Best 2 of 3 Speed (39%, +$47.80)

Avg Speed Last 3 (32%, +$35.20)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Phil D’Amto // 14: 3-4-1 (32%, $1.02 ROI) // 2-2 with favorites, adding 28-1 runner-up and 10-1 third

T: Sean McCarthy // 9: 3-3-1 (33%, $1.03 ROI) // 0-2 with favorites, all 3 winners were 2-1 odds

T: Kristin Mulhall // 5: 2-0-1 (40%, $6.64 ROI) // $33 turf allowance winners on back-to-back days

T: Vladimir Cerin // 5: 2-2-0 (40%, $2.60 ROI) // $7, $8 winners snapped 10-race losing streak

J: Abel Cedillo // 19: 6-3-0 (32%, $0.96 ROI) // 5: 3-2-0 with favorites // 2 wins with Mark Glatt & Sean McCarthy

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Gate Fields 5 Facts | May 9-16, 2022

May 10, 2022 | By 1/ST BET

Schedule:

Friday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$12,196 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

None scheduled.

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

ITM (In the Money) % (47%, +$31.00)

Trainer Current Year (34%, +$17.00)

Lifetime Speed (38%, +$4.80)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Isidro Tamayo // 9: 4-2-1 (44%, $1.23 ROI) // 4: 3-1-0 with favorites

T: Reid France // 8: 4-1-0 (50%, $2.36 ROI) // 2-2 with favorites + $20 winner // 3: 2-1-0 with jockey Irving Orosco

J: Evin Roman // 13: 5-0-5 (38%, $2.10 ROI) // 2-2 with favorites // $4, $6, $11, $16, $17 winners // won for 5 different trainers

J: Irvin Orozco // 12: 4-2-0 (33%, $1.56 ROI) // 3: 2-1-0 with trainer Reid France // $4, $6, $6, $20 winners

J: Frank Alvarado // 5: 3-0-0 (%, $ ROI) //

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 13, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

Hoosier Park has an 11-race card set for this evening. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11, and the sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

1-Rockin Speed (8-1)-This will be the 3rd barn change this year and the previous 2 conditioners are usually successful. Joins the Essig stable now, this is the softest spot of the year and his hit the board in 23 of 46 here with 6 wins.
2-Seeing Eye Single (9/2)-This is the 3rd start in the Burke barn for this Pompano shipper. Drops to a more comfortable level and it's best to not overlook.
9-Goldies's Legacy (9/5)-Cullipher trainee has been facing tough foes at the Big M and has won 7 of 31 races at Hoosier. The post draw doesn't help but should enjoy the company.

Race 12

5-Sea Of Life (3-1)-Paced evenly versus better in the 1st start since 8-27 and now drops to a more competitive level. Will use with a race at the track and that could make enough of a difference to come out on top.
7-Palomar (5/2)-Should make the most of this drop as the foes out East were a more difficult challenge. Can't completely trust with a 1-12 record this year but this could be a wake-up call.

Race 13

4-Americanprimetime (5/2)-The Rucker barn is 0-18 the past 30 days and this 10-year-old drops again. Not loving the low price but could beat this crew with a top try.
5-Serious Miki (2-1)-Miki likes to win and willing to excuse the break in last on a sloppy track. Putnam should have this 4-year-old racing near the top of the stack and looks like the one to beat.
8-Bet Ninteen (6-1)-Was used hard from the 9-hole in the slop to get on the point off the gate versus this kind last week. Did hang in there and deserves respect. Loses De Long to #9 and that should help the price.

Race 14

3-Colin N Down (9/2)-Claimed in last by a cold barn but may have dropped into a winning spot. This isn't a tough bunch and has hit the board in 19 of 49 at HoP with 8 wins. Should like facing this group instead of $20k claimers.
5-Pine Master (6-1)-This MVR shipper makes the 3rd start since coming off the bench and might be ready to fire its best shot. Will use instead of #10 the ML chalk who had no excuse in last. Faded hard down the lane and has been off almost a month.
7-Great Image (4-1)-Tossing last in the slop, off-track record is 1-19. Team Tetrick entry appears to be racing himself into shape and could be sitting on a big try.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,2,9/5,7/4,5,8/3,5,7
Total Bet=$27

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary (5-13-22)

May 13, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst


Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 3-Arrabiata; 6-Bud Knight

Forecast: Arrabiata (TOC=9/5; ML=2-1) returns the claiming ranks for the first time since breaking his maiden in his debut in December at Los Alamitos. The class drop should do him well. The son of Tapit has earned decent figures even when finishing unplaced in his last pair against considerably stronger foes, so in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf miler the D. O’Neill-trained sophomore appears to have found his friends. Bud Knight (TOC=3-1; ML=3-1) is 1-for-24 and therefore impossible to have confidence in, but the return to grass coupled with a class drop from starter’s allowance company should make him competitive. His speed figures also fit nicely in this league. We’ll toss him in on a ticket or two while reserving the main punch for Arrabiata.


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RACE 2: Post: 1:37 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 6-The Reign Song; 2-Miss Lucilla

Forecast: California-bred juveniles meet over four and one-half furlongs in the second race, with five of six starters having been bred by T. Lovingier, who has retained ownership in The Reign Song and Miss Lucilla , the two entrants that figure to get the bulk of the play on the tote. ‘Song finished a distant third in her debut after a slow start and a wide trip behind runaway winner Tom’s Regret, who subsequently won the Kentucky Juvenile S. at Churchill Downs during Derby week. From an outside post and with blinkers being added, the daughter of Stay Thirsty should have no excuses. ‘Lucilla went through the ring as a yearling for $50,000 and shows a sufficient work tab to be fit and ready. The W. Solis stable (2-for-60 in 2022) doesn’t inspire confidence but in an unclassified field she appears to be the most dangerous of the newcomers.


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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 3-Kuora; 2-Octane

Forecast: Kuora (TOC=8/5; ML=5/2), claimed for $50,000 two races back and fifth in a tougher allowance/optional claimer in her first outing for new connections, drops into the $32,000 ranks and seems as good as any in this nine furlong grass event for older fillies and mares. From the high-percentage V. Cerin barn, the Peruvian-bred mare won for this price the last time she ran for it (last summer at Del Mar) and against this easier group she could easily return to winning form. She does her best running from just off the pace and seems likely to inherit an ideal trip In a race that projects to have soft early splits. Octane (TOC=3-1; ML=2-1) is the likely controlling speed with the addition of blinkers from a good inside draw, and if not policed up front she could get brave and be tough to catch. The Brazilian-bred mare will be trying claimers for the first time, is a fit on numbers, and switches to top rider J. Hernandez. We’ll give Kuora a slight edge on top but include both in rolling exotic play.


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RACE 4: Post: 2:43 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 3-Synthethis; 5-Octopus

Forecast: Synthesis (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2) has excellent recent form, is fast on figures, and looks well-spotted for a repeat score after capturing a nice starter’s allowance event over this track and distance in late March. He has trained nicely since that race for T. Yakteen and has a good stalking style that should produce a comfortable trip. Octopus (TOC=9/5; ML=4-1) was scheduled to make his first start in 11 months when entered for $20,000 on April 15 but was a late scratch by the stewards (not the vet), worked two days later, and today shows up in a $32,000 seller as a first-time gelding. A three-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Shackleford shows a steady work tab that should have him fit enough, and in a race without much speed he could find himself on the front end without any real pressure. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with Synthesis getting a slight nod on top.

Notable Workouts:

Octopus (April 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h). Grade: B
Under restraint to the wire, then was asked out to the 7/8 pole and did well while clearly best over Lil Richards Bello (4f, :49h), splits of :11.3, :36.2 and :49 flat from the 3 furlong pole to the seven furlong pole. Looked eager, been away for almost a year but seems in good enough shape.
View Workout Video


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RACE 5: Post: 3:14 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Southern Horse; 4-Whooping Jay

Forecast: Southern Horse (TOC=Evens; ML=2-1) moves up two notches on the claiming class scale after securing his first North American victory over this course and distance last month. The J. Sadler-trained Argentine-bred veteran likes to settle in the second flight and then blast home and should get the trip he needs to handle this tougher assignment. J. Hernandez stays aboard and knows him well. Whooping Jay (TOC=5-1; ML=7/2) was claimed for $100,000 in November at Del Mar, hasn’t done much in three starts since, and today shows up in a $50,000 claimer, so the pattern is suspect. However, he may be the quickest in the field and if he can shake loose early without being pressured he could take this field a very long way. Preference on top goes to Southern Horse but both should be included in rolling exotic play.


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RACE 6: Post: 3:45 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 8-Grazed; 9-Leyas Candy; 4-Creative Peak

Forecast: Here’s a fairly competitive sprint for California-bred runners that requires a bit of usage in rolling exotic play. Trainer M. Glatt appears to have two live items. Grazed had a troubled run at Tampa Bay Downs a year ago April when finishing second in a maiden $25,000 grass sprint and then was stopped on. The son of Grazen returns protected in a sign of confidence and has given indication in his morning drills that he possesses much more early zip than he showed in his debut. Stable mate Leyas Candy is a first-timer by Danzing Candy with a work tab that should have him plenty fit. He is drawn comfortably outside and has done enough in the a.m. to make him a “must use” in this affair. Creative Peak makes his first start since October and if he returns as well as he left the son of Creative Cause should highly competitive, as well. In the frame in three of four races last year during his two-year-old campaign (and eliminated when impeded in the one race he wasn’t), the V. Cerin-trained colt should be fit enough for a major effort for a stable that has superior stats with layoff runners.

Notable Workouts:

Grazed (April 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h). Grade: B
In blinkers, may have gone a few tickets slower on our watches from half mile pole out to seven furlong pole but was under strong restraint early and under a hold late while even but best over Suzie Qzz Brother (same time) for M. Glatt, splits of :24.3, :49.2 and 1:02.1, plenty left late. Been away for more than a year but seems to have much more early speed than his only outing shows. Dangerous vs. maidens.
View Workout Video

Leyas Candy (March 31, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h). Grade: B
Broke off a couple of lengths in front of Rookie Mistake (4f, :48.1h) and finished about a length in front while working from the three furlong pole out to the seven furlong pole, mild coaxing only and finishing with something left, splits of :11.4, :36 flat (to the wire) and then out in :48.2. Decent mover looks to have some ability, getting fit, is a decently-bred state-bred sophomore colt.
View Workout Video


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RACE 7: Post: 4:16 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Teddy’s Barino

Forecast: Teddy’s Barino (TOC=2-1; ML=3-1) may have been a bit rusty when a respectable fifth in a downhill turf sprint vs. similar state-bred fillies and mares in her first outing in nine months a few weeks ago but she should be fitter and tighter today in this main track affair. Her only prior outing on dirt (last summer at Del Mar) was quite good when she finished second with a career top speed figure, so we’re expecting the M. Glatt-trained daughter of Grazen to step forward in a big way today. In a race in which nothing else excites, let’s take a stand and make her a win play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 3-1.


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RACE 8: Post: 4:42 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Amadmadworld; 6-Nineeleventurbo; 1-Explain the Audit

Forecast: The finale is a wide-open grass grab bag for maiden $50,000 older horses at nine furlongs. Best advice is to go as deeply as your budget allows. Let’s take a shot with Amadmadworld at 8-1 on the morning line. Far back when very green in his debut sprinting on dirt in what has proven to be a highly-productive race, the son of Midnight Lute seems sure to improve a bunch against this modest group and strikes us as a gelding that will truly appreciate this stretch out in trip. In a race in which the known element doesn’t impress, a fresh face could easily win it. Nineelenveturbo is an 11-race maiden but this will be his first try with blinkers and his first vs. maiden claimers. He is solid on numbers, working well, and projects to be prominent throughout. Explain the Audit was overmatched vs. straight maiden company in his last pair but has run very well at this level in the past and is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his rail post. Look for him to be doing his best work late.

Notable Workouts:

Nineeleventurbo (May 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B
In blinkers, shadow roll, was quite keen early while trying to run off a bit, settled midway, then finished without pressure in solo training track drill for Drysdale, splits of :24.4, :36.2 and 1:00.3 on our watches, decent drill for maiden claiming type. May be more aggressive with the hood on, seeking another soft spot.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli: Pimlico Late Pick 4 | Friday, May 13, 2022

May 13, 2022 | By Frank Carulli

PIMLICO LATE PICK 4 ANALYSIS
Friday May 13, 2022

Pimlico will offer lucrative Pick 4 guaranteed pools on Preakness weekend. No guarantees when the meet opens this weekend, but Friday’s 50-cent Late Pick 4 could get the party started with what appears a challenging sequence. Here’s an early look at the action, with an update to follow after scratches:
PIM 5th race (2:41 EST) -- JIMMY THE KID, idle since he was claimed two months ago at Tampa for $8,000, was the beaten favorite in 5 of his last 8 starts, but he has speed and can use it well from the rail in this spot. DESHACKLED was fractious in the gate, bumped with the runner-up and didn’t change leads as the favorite, but he gets blinkers, gets in light-weighted and draws favorably. Not crazy about LOADED SNIPER (9-2), who gained inside at the 1/8 pole in a long sprint but benefitted from bumpy trips by the three rivals surrounding him, including Deshackled. If the pace falls apart, FRANCIS X looms a late-running threat if he duplicates the ‘nice rail run’ on the turn to finish second behind the 6-to-5 favorite in a higher-tagged claiming sprint.
PIM 6th race (3:12 EST) -- ROYAL WHISPER, a $90,000 sales buy for a 23-percent barn with first-time starters, shows a series of bullet workouts that includes a :47.3 move April 10 when only 8 of 76 started from the gate. Her sire has produced 32 debut-winning 2-year-olds from 203 starters but her dam only won once while racing at smaller tracks. LA SAMANA LAURA raced close up early before back-pedaling in a November turf route that produced two Maiden Special Weight winners and two Grade III runners-up. She’s worth using on the ticket at double-digit odds.
PIM 7th race (3:42 EST) -- ROYAL NUMBER arrives for his first turf test off an allowance victory going long on the main track. His dam won a Maryland-bred stakes race sprinting on the grass. But if he doesn’t handle the change of surface, it’s anybody’s race, so go deep in this leg.
PIM 8th race (4:12 EST) -- GOLDEN GULLY is re-united with trainer Gary Capuano, who coaxed a runner-up finish from the then 3-year-old in a productive 6F sprint 10 months ago. ON THE ENGINE stayed on the rail and ‘eagerly drew off’ from a pair of sub 2-to-1 favorites to win off an eight-month layoff. MUGSY MALONE will need to improve to contend, but he sheds 17 pounds and could do so for a sharp claim barn.
Suggested 50-cent Ticket
PIM 5th Race: 1, 4, 8
PIM 6th Race: 2, 5
PIM 7th Race: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 10, 11
PIM 8th Race: 5, 6, 7
COST: $63

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #6
Picks Notes
#2 So Courageous He's got some good positional pace, and he should be able to sit close to the guy drawn just outside of him who figures to show some speed. Think he can turn the tables on that guy from when they met in February.
#3 Froggy the Gremlin His form looks a bit spotty, but his two tries at this short one-turn trip both produced wins, and he's fast enough to find the front here in a race without a ton of sharp sprint speed.
#5 River Warrior RVF Cutback player has some two-turn pace, but that might leave him a bit off splits while turning back to this abbreviated dash. Think he's in the mix, but I worry he'll take a bit too much cash while meeting a couple who might be better suited to this trip.
Race Summary So Courageous should get a good go of things from close range, and his sprint form has been really reliable of late. Thinking he might offer a playable number with a couple others in here also likely to attract attention.

Charles Town - Race #7
Picks Notes
#8 Scotty Silver He lands here for the new team, and he's had some really reliable form and a long string of good races before the break. He should be able to find a good trip near the top here, and the price might be right on the rise.
#6 Nashvegas He's probably supposed to win this after facing better company in some recent Laurel starts, but he has a tendency to toss a poor race every now and then, and he'll be trying the local footing for the first time tonight.
#4 Grecian Admiral He might be a bit cheap for these, but his local record is pretty solid, and I think he earned the rise with the good effort last time out. Versatile player for a piece?
Race Summary Scotty Silver returns off the bench while in a tougher spot, but he should land a great trip tracking the pace from the outside at a fair price.

Charles Town - Race #8
Picks Notes
#8 Dr. Calkins She has some upside with just the one start under her belt, and she had a tough getaway that day when bothered a bit at the break. She finished up with a bit of energy while not posing a serious threat, and maybe a clean break helps her take a big step forward today.
#5 Talented Corinna She caught a tough winner last time out while racing well clear of the top choice, and I like that she figures to settle just off the pace with a baseline effort that is very competitive with these.
#6 Lady Cinco De Mayo She flashed some pace on the move around two turns last time out, and I'd expect to see her in the mix early on again with these. Think she's potentially vulnerable again late.
Race Summary Dr. Calkins has room to improve in this second start, and she didn't really get a great start last out for a horse making their debut trip to post. Let's see what she can do with a cleaner go.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 CAFFEINE BUZZ Tactical speed comes in handy, switches drivers.
#1 SKYWAY FIREBALL Missed a week sick, driver’s choice on a triple call.
#2 PRINCE ASTON Steady numbers, moves outside in with Napolitano.
Race Summary Caffeine Buzz set the pace at this level two starts back before the 1-to-9 favorite caught up. He can make maximum use of his speed in this spot and can rate, if necessary. Play 4-1 and 4-2 exactas.

Hoosier Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 FOX VALLEY REN Set rapid pace, got caught, can control pace in here.
#6 SURREAL ART Rallied into photo-finish view in last pair at this level.
#2 HOT DEUCE Has 40 wins, $400k in earnings, ships in for Team Burke.
Race Summary The eight entrants share a common thread: they love to win, as in 161 times combined. Fox Valley Ren changed tactics, built a commanding lead through a :55.1 middle half and got caught by the favorite at this level. He can go non-stop tonight and offers good value at 5-1 on the morning line.

Meadowlands - Race #12
Picks Notes
#1 FASHION SCHOONER Late money poured in, out-kicked by multiple stakes winner, take right back.
#2 GRACELYN HANOVER Carried speed until deep stretch in second start off a layoff.
#6 PEYTON HANOVER Rode pocket to victory in faster division of sire stakes.
Race Summary Not giving up yet on Fashion Schooner after a visually impressive comeback win. She was in range of a repeat victory but couldn’t match strides in the stretch with multiple stakes-winning millionaire Venerable last week. Get to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Picks for May 13, 2022 – Horse Racing Betting Tips

By Kyle E in Horse Racing — May 12th, 2022 11:21pm PDT

Belmont Park Picks for May 13, 2022 – Horse Racing Betting Tips

We’re on the racetrack Friday afternoon just a week out from the Preakness Stakes on Saturday. We know that there will definitely not be a Triple Crown winner in 2022. Rich Strike is opting out, as trainer Eric Reid is pointing the Kentucky Derby winner to the Belmont Stakes.
Skipping The Preakness
Rich Strike is skipping the Preakness Stakes for the Belmont Stakes. I didn’t have the most confidence in Rich Strike at this distance, so it’s probably for the best. Rich Strike likely would have gotten torched in the Preakness at a shorter distance.

We are going to Belmont Park in Queens for our first look on Friday. Belmont Park has the biggest stakes race this weekend, with the running of the $700,000 Man o’ War Stakes (Gr. 1) on the turf. There are five stakes races on Saturday at Belmont.

Head below for our best Belmont Stakes picks on May 12, 2022.
Rank
Betting Site
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Race 2
(1) Stormi Cat Lady
+160 (8/5)
(2) Bells On Her Toes
+300 (3/1)
(3) Queentigua
+600 (6/1)
(4) Dutchess of N Y
+600 (6/1)
(5) Game Theory
+1500 (15/1)
(6) Simple Sugar
+250 (5/2)

Post Time: 1:32 p.m. EST

Distance:6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Park Picks for May 13, 2022 – Horse Racing Betting Tips

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By Kyle E in Horse Racing — May 13th, 2022 1:35am PDT
4 Min. Read

Santa Anita Park Picks for May 13, 2022 – Horse Racing Betting Tips

There will be no Triple Crown bid in 2022. Rich Strike is skipping over the Preakness Stakes and focusing on the Belmont Stakes. The Preakness does not appear to play to Rich Strike’s strengths, so this doesn’t look like a bad move despite it being surprising.
Sorry, NBC.
NBC and Preakness Stakes organizers don’t like it when they don’t have the Kentucky Derby winner running in their race. There was plenty of media attention after an 80-1 longshot won as well, so there was going to be big interest to see what he did in the Preakness.

We have picks from Belmont Park on Friday afternoon. Along with Belmont, we’re targeting Santa Anita Park in California. Santa Anita has eight races worth $406,000 to be won.

Head below for our best Santa Anita Park picks on May 13, 2022.
Rank
Betting Site
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Race 4
(1) Offshore Affair
+350 (7/2)
(2) Quick Finish
+400 (4/1)
(3) Synthesis
+250 (5/2)
(4) Zimba Warrior
+800 (8/1)
(5) Octopus
+400 (4/1)
(6) Full Draw
+1500 (15/1)
(7) Jamming Eddy
+400 (4/1)

Post Time: 2:43 p.m. PST

Distance:7 Furlongs

Purse: $43,000

Race 4 is a $43,000 event covering 7 furlongs on the dirt. Consider looking at Octopus and Synthesis as strong contenders to get this one done.

Octopus is 5 for 16 and has been in good form recently. He has finished 1st, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 1st in his previous five races.
In his last start, Octopus beat Satchel de Ritches by a head in a $26,000 purse. That was a nice effort after showing 3rd on May 1 for a $42,000 purse.

Back up in class to $42,000, Octopus could be tough against Synthesis. Synthesis is 6 for 35 and most recently won a $40,000 prize on March 26.

That was an impressive trip by