Saturday 5/14/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 09:05 AM

Saturday’s games
National League
San Francisco (20-12) @ St Louis (17-15)
— Junis is 0-0, 1.29 in three games (1 start).
— Giants are 1-0 in his starts.
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0
— He is 0-0, 3.05 in four starts vs St Louis.

— Giants won their last six games.
— San Francisco is 9-5 on road.
— over 11-4 last 15
— scored run in first inning: 6-32
— record in first 5 innings: 18-10-4

— Hudson is 2-1, 2.35 in his last four starts.
— Cardinals are 3-3 in his starts.
— over 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-3
— He is 2-0, 2.05 in five games (3 starts) vs San Francisco..

— Cardinals are 1-5 in last six games.
— St Louis is 8-8 at home.
— over 10-6 last 16 games
— scored run in first inning: 13-32
— record in first 5 innings: 14-13-5

San Diego (21-12) @ Atlanta (14-18)
— Manaea is 0-2, 6.88 in his last three starts.
— Padres are 2-4 in his starts
— last three over
— allowed run in first inning: 3-6
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3-1
— He is 0-0, 2.45 in one start vs Atlanta.

— Padres won 16 of last 23 games.
— San Diego is 11-5 on road.
— over 12 of last 17 games.
— scored run in first inning: 11-33
— record in first 5 innings: 20-9-4

— Morton is 1-3, 6.75 in his last five starts.
— Braves are 2-4 in his starts.
— over 5-1
— allowed run in first inning: 3-6
— record in first 5 innings: 2-4
— He is 6-2, 2.66 in ten starts vs San Diego.

— Braves are 3-2 in last five games.
— Atlanta is 9-10 at home.
— over 12-5-1 last 18 games
— scored run in first inning: 7-33
— record in first 5 innings: 12-17-4

Milwaukee (21-12) @ Miami (14-18)
— Lauer is 3-0, 1.42 in his last four starts.
— Brewers are 5-0 in his starts.
— under 2-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-0-3
— He is 0-2, 7.71 in three games (2 starts) vs Miami.

— Brewers won 17 of last 24 games.
— Milwaukee is 11-8 on road.
— over 10-3 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 11-33
— record in first 5 innings: 14-11-8

— Rogers is 1-1, 3.52 in his last three starts.
— Marlins are 1-5 in his starts.
— under 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 3-6
— record in first 5 innings: 1-4-1
— He is 2-0, 0.82 in two starts vs Milwaukee.

— Miami lost 10 of last 12 games.
— Marlins are 6-8 at home
— over 5-2 last seven home games.
— scored run in first inning: 6-32
— record in first 5 innings: 12-14-6

Cincinnati (9-24) @ Pittsburgh (13-19)
— Castillo allowed three runs in 4.2 IP (97 PT) in his first ‘22 start.
— Reds are 1-0 in his starts.
— over 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0
— He is 5-3, 2.30 in 12 starts vs Pittsburgh.

— Reds won six of last eight games, after a 3-22 start.
— Cincinnati is 4-15 on road.
— over 15 of last 17 games
— scored run in first inning: 8-33
— record in first 5 innings: 9-22-2

— Thompson is 0-3, 11.15 in his last four starts.
— Pirates are 1-4 in his starts.
— over 3-0 last three
— allowed run in first inning: 3-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3
— He is 0-1, 3.00 in three starts vs Cincinnati.

— Pirates lost 11 of their last 16 games.
— Pittsburgh is 7-10 at home.
— six of last nine games over
— scored run in first inning: 7-32
— record in first 5 innings: 10-18-4

Cubs (11-20) @ Arizona (18-15)
— Steele is 0-4, 9.49 in his last four starts.
— Chicago is 2-4 in his starts.
— under 3-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 2-4
— He hasn’t pitched against Arizona

— Cubs lost 16 of their last 21 games.
— Cubs are 7-9 on road.
— over 3-2-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 12-31
— record in first 5 innings: 11-17-3

— Gallen is 2-0, 0.95 in five starts.
— Arizona is 4-1 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0-2
— He is 0-1, 7.45 in two starts vs Chicago.

— Diamondbacks are 10-3 in last 13 games.
— Arizona is 10-9 at home.
— under 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 9-33
— record in first 5 innings: 13-9-11

Philadelphia (16-17) @ Los Angeles (20-11)
— Suarez is 2-1, 3.74 in his last four starts.
— Phillies are 5-1 in his starts.
— last three over
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1-2
— He is 2-1, 2.35 in four games (1 start) vs Los Angeles.

— Phillies are 6-7 in last thirteen games.
— Philly is 7-8 on road.
— over 10-4 last 14 road games
— scored run in first inning: 12-33
— record in first 5 innings: 12-15-6

— Urias is 2-1, 1.29 in his last five starts.
— Dodgers are 3-3 in his starts.
— last five under
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3-1
— He is 2-0, 2.93 in four games (2 starts) vs Philly.

— Dodgers lost four of last five games.
— Los Angeles is 10-4 at home.
— under 13-7-1 last 21
— scored run in first inning: 11-31
— record in first 5 innings: 19-6-6

American League
LA Angels (22-12) @ A’s (14-20)
— Lorenzen is 2-2, 4.84 in his last four starts.
— Angels are 3-2 in his starts.
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2
— He threw two scoreless IP in a relief stint vs Oakland.

— Sandoval is 1-1, 2.70 in five starts.
— Angels are 4-1 in his starts.
— under 3-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He is 0-3, 1.89 in four starts vs Oakland

— Angels won 16 of their last 23 games.
— Angels are 10-5 on road.
— over 5-3-1 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 14-34
— record in first 5 innings: 19-12-3

— Blackburn is 4-0, 1.74 in six starts.
— A’s are 5-1 in his starts.
— over 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 6-0
— He threw 6.2 scoreless IP, in one start vs Anaheim.

— Oller is 0-2, 11.70 in three starts.
— A’s are 0-3 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-3
— He hasn’t pitched against the Angels.

— A’s won four of their last six games.
— Oakland is 4-10 at home.
— under 7-2-1 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 8-34
— record in first 5 innings: 13-15-6

Baltimore (14-19) @ Detroit (10-23)
— Zimmerman is 1-1, 4.70 in his last three starts.
— Orioles are 4-2 in his starts.
— under 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Detroit.

— Orioles are 6-3 in their last nine games.
— Baltimore is 5-12 on road.
— over 5-4 last nine road games.
— scored run in first inning: 3-33
— record in first 5 innings: 10-16-7

— Pineda is 0-2, 4.60 in his starts.
— Tigers are 2-2 in his starts.
— under 4-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He is 6-4, 4.09 in 15 starts vs Baltimore.

— Tigers lost nine of last 11 games.
— Detroit is 7-13 at home.
— under 20-9-1 last 30 games.
— scored run in first inning: 4-33
— record in first 5 innings: 7-21-5

Toronto (17-16) @ Tampa Bay (20-13)
— Ryu is 0-0, 13.50 in two starts- last one was April 16.
— Toronto is 0-2 in his starts.
— over 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2
— He is 0-0, 2.70 in four starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Blue Jays are 2-8 in their last ten games.
— Toronto is 7-10 on road.
— over 6-2-1 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 13-33
— record in first 5 innings: 12-11-10

— Yarbrough is 0-0, 6.14 in two starts.
— Rays are 1-1 in his starts.
— over 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1-1
— He is 8-2, 3.23 in 17 games (8 starts) vs Toronto.

— Tampa Bay lost three of last five games.
— Rays are 10-7 at home.
— over 8-4-1 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 9-33
— record in first 5 innings: 15-10-8

Boston (12-20) @ Texas (13-18)
— Hill is 0-0, 0.00 in his last three starts (13 IP).
— Red Sox are 2-3 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3-1
— He is 2-0, 2.81 in five games (3 starts) vs Texas.

— Red Sox lost six of last eight games.
— Boston is 8-11 on road.
— under 4-1-1 last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 7-32
— record in first 5 innings: 11-13-8

— Otto is 1-0, 3.14 in three starts.
— Rangers are 2-1 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Boston.

— Rangers won six of their last ten games.
— Texas is 6-11 at home
— under 12-5-1 last 18 games
— scored run in first inning: 6-31
— record in first 5 innings: 9-13-9

Cleveland (15-16) @ Minnesota (19-14)
— Bieber is 0-2, 5.94 in his last three starts.
— Cleveland is 3-3 in his starts.
— over 3-3
— allowed run in first inning: 0-6
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-2
— He is 5-1, 3.63 in 11 starts vs Minnesota.

— Guardians won eight of their last 12 games.
— Cleveland is 8-11 on road.
— over 8-2 last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 9-31
— record in first 5 innings: 9-14-8

— bullpen game

— Minnesota lost four of last five games.
— Twins are 12-7 at home.
— under 5-3 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 10-33
— record in first 5 innings: 14-12-7

New York (23-8) @ White Sox (15-16)
— Montgomery is 0-0, 3.24 in his last three starts.
— New York is 2-4 in his starts
— under 6-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
— He is 2-0, 1.80 in three starts vs Chicago.

— New York won 18 of last 20 games.
— New York is 10-4 on road.
— over 4-0 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 8-33
— record in first 5 innings: 18-6-9

— Keuchel is 1-2, 4.80 in his last three starts.
— Chicago is 2-3 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 3-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3
— He is 4-4, 2.23 in nine starts vs New York.

— White Sox won eight of last 12 games.
— Chicago is 8-9 at home.
— under 11-5 last sixteen games.
— scored run in first inning: 9-31
— record in first 5 innings: 16-13-2

Interleague games
Houston (22-11) @ Washington (11-23)
— Javier is 2-0, 1.74 in two starts.
— Astros are 2-0 in his starts.
— under 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 2-0
— He hasn’t pitched against Washington.

— Astros won their last 11 games.
— Houston is 13-7 on road.
— under 14-3 last 17 games
— scored run in first inning: 8-33
— record in first 5 innings: 21-8-4

— Fedde is 1-1, 1.62 in his last three starts.
— Washington is 3-3 in his starts.
— over 2-2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Houston.

— Washington lost seven of last nine games.
— Nationals lost 11 of last 12 home games.
— under is 11-3 in their home games.
— scored run in first inning: 12-34
— record in first 5 innings: 12-20-2

Seattle (15-18) @ NY Mets (22-12)
— Kirby threw six shutout IP in his first MLB start.
— Seattle is 1-0 in his starts.
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
— He hasn’t pitched against the Mets.

— Mariners lost 12 of their last 16 games.
— Seattle is 6-11 on road.
— under 11-6 on road.
— scored run in first inning: 11-33
— record in first 5 innings: 13-15-5

— Bassitt is 2-1, 1.93 in his last three starts.
— New York is 4-2 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 5-1
— He is 1-4, 3.98 in 12 starts vs Seattle.

— Mets are 11-7 in their last 18 games.
— Mets are 9-6 at home.
— under 5-1 last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 11-34
— record in first 5 innings: 18-8-8

Kansas City (11-19) @ Colorado (16-16)
— Hernandez is 0-2, 7.54 in five starts.
— Royals are 1-4 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-5
— record in first 5 innings: 0-3-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Colorado.

— Kansas City lost nine of last 13 games.
— Royals are 5-10 on road.
— over 11-6-1 last eighteen games
— scored run in first inning: 7-30
— record in first 5 innings: 9-15-6

— Marquez is 0-3, 11.05 in his last three starts.
— Rockies lost his last four starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 0-6
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3-1
— He is 0-0, 3.00 in one start vs Kansas City.

— Colorado lost six of last seven games.
— Rockies are 11-6 at home.
— over 6-2 last eight home games.
— scored run in first inning: 9-31
— record in first 5 innings: 11-16-4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 11:28 AM

Today’s Free Horse Picks – Saturday, May 14th 2022
By Reggie Garrett

We are covering 8 tracks on Saturday, May 14th, 2022. Reggie Garrett has his picks for each race at Gulfstream Park, Monmouth, Belmont Park and more. Good luck and enjoy!

Belmont Park – 1:00 ET
Race 1: 3 Eminency
Race 2: 7 Standup
Race 3: 2 Frank’s Rockette
Race 4: 2 Missing Link
Race 5: 5 Officiating
Race 6: 5 Belacqua
Race 7: 9 Seven Lillies
Race 8: Man o’ War Stakes Entries & Free Picks
Race 9: Peter Pan Stakes Entries & Free Picks
Race 10: 2 Lemista
Race 11: 9 Palace Gossip

Churchill Downs – 6:00 ET
Race 1: 3 Prayforpeace
Race 2: 7 Brunella
Race 3: 2 Apache Tears
Race 4: 6 Avendore
Race 5: 5 Mo Betta
Race 6: 4 Tightwad
Race 7: 7 Arrobatic
Race 8: 7 Uncle Berley
Race 9: 5 Twilight Gleaming
Race 10: 7 Allworthy
Race 11: 5 My Lily Mae

Golden Gate Fields – 1:15 PT
Race 1: 4 Sting Like a Bee
Race 2: 2 Bandeena
Race 3: 2 Front of Line
Race 4: 5 Governor Arthur
Race 5: 6 Martini Mischief
Race 6: 3 La Vikina
Race 7: 6 Speed Grazy
Race 8: 1 Code Ribbon
Race 9: 4 Smiling at Val

Gulfstream Park – 1:05 ET
Race 1: 7 Sheza Rajun Cajin
Race 2: 6 Vinnie Van Go
Race 3: 1 Aunt Nadine
Race 4: 5 Authentic Heart
Race 5: 5 Kenya Sun
Race 6: 5 I’m Already Taken
Race 7: 2 Starting Up
Race 8: 5 Southern Breeze
Race 9: 1 Chica Boom
Race 10: 2 Capture the Time
Race 11: 9 Ninja Abarrio

Monmouth Park – 12:15 ET
Race 1: 4 Tactical Range
Race 2: 7 Rookie Salsa
Race 3: 2 El Fantasma
Race 4: 6 Big Lee’s Legacy
Race 5: 1 Dash Attack
Race 6: 2 Binkster
Race 7: 6 I Can Run
Race 8: 7 Stay Home
Race 9: 3 Dantastic
Race 10: 7 Not a Postino

Pimlico – 12:40 ET
Race 1: 3 Sommer Velvet
Race 2: 6 Parched Ghost
Race 3: 2 Carvellian Quest
Race 4: 7 Excalibur
Race 5: 10 Oil On Canvas
Race 6: 1 Kisses for Hannah
Race 7: 1 Hot Lookin Royal
Race 8: 5 Polished Gal
Race 9: 3 Market of Stocks

Santa Anita Park – 1:00 PT
Race 1: 2 Vantastic
Race 2: 3 Good N Thirsty
Race 3: 1 Stressed
Race 4: 5 Thirsty John
Race 5: 6 Carpe Vinum
Race 6: 3 Darling Donna
Race 7: 5 Harper’s Gallop
Race 8: 6 Go Joe Won
Race 9: 3 Sky On Ice

Woodbine – 1:10 ET
Race 1: 3 Qian B C
Race 2: 6 Dominicana
Race 3: 1 Silver Signature
Race 4: 5 Mademoiselle Nova
Race 5: 7 D’s Soul
Race 6: 3 Silver Smoke
Race 7: 6 Sweet Carolena
Race 8: 5 Mr. De
Race 9: 7 Bizymaline
Race 10: 3 War Safe

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 11:28 AM

Belmont Park Picks - Saturday, May 14, 2022

Race 1: 3-6-9-1
Race 2: 2-7-1-5
Race 3: 5-2-4-3
Race 4: 10-8-12-2
Race 5: 1-3-2-5
Race 6: 3-9-5-7
Race 7: 4-9-1/1A-7
Race 8: 3-2-6-4
Race 9: 2-4-6-1
Race 10: 2-5-1-4
Race 11: 9-11-4-7
**Most Likely: Yibir (GB) #3 (Race 8)**
**Best Value: Foolish Ghost #4 (Race 7)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 11:28 AM

Charles Town Picks - Saturday, May 14, 2022

Race 1: 4-3-2-1
Race 2: 1-5-3-6
Race 3: 6-8-1-3
Race 4: 1-2-5-7
Race 5: 4-5-10-6
Race 6: 1-3-2-7
Race 7: 2-5-3-1
Race 8: 8-1-4-6
**Most Likely Winner: River Crosroad Rvf #4 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Shamcat #1 (Race 6)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 11:28 AM

Churchill Downs Picks - Saturday, May 14, 2022

Race 1: 5-1/1A-3-4
Race 2: 1-5-7-6
Race 3: 6-3-8-5
Race 4: 6-1-4-2
Race 5: 1-4-2-6
Race 6: 7-2-1/1A-6
Race 7: 1-7-4-8
Race 8: 3-6-2-4
Race 9: 6-5-9-2
Race 10: 7-3-5-1
Race 11: 11-3-12-5
**Most Likely: Foliage #6 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Grapnel #3 (Race 8)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 11:29 AM

FanDuel Racing Picks - Saturday, May 14, 2022

Race 1: 3-4-1-5
Race 2: 7-3-4-1
Race 3: 4-2-3-7
Race 4: 2-3-6-1
Race 5: 4-5-6-1
Race 6: 1-4-2-3
Race 7: 2-5-1-8
**Most Likely Winner: Kiana's Love #4 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Crowned Leader #7 (Race 2)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 11:29 AM

Gulfstream Park Picks - Saturday, May 14, 2022

Race 1: 5-1-3-4
Race 2: 1-5-2-3
Race 3: 7-2-1-6
Race 4: 4-3-5-1
Race 5: 5-1-7-6
Race 6: 1-8-7-4
Race 7: 1-2-6-5
Race 8: 6-1-2-8
Race 9: 1-5-2-4
Race 10: 1-4-2-6
Race 11: 2-5-7-1
**Most Likely Winner: Living Water #1 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Sidney Sue #7 (Race 3)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 11:29 AM

Lone Star Park Picks - Saturday, May 14, 2022

Race 1: 8-9-4-7
Race 2: 5-3-4-6
Race 3: 2-6-4-5
Race 4: 8-7-3-6
Race 5: 6-1-3-2
Race 6: 3-2-5-7
Race 7: 5-9-2-8
Race 8: 2-6-1-4
Race 9: 6-3-10-5
Race 10: 6-3-9-7
**Most Likely: Tensas Toddy #6 (Race 5)**
**Best Value: Chief Brady #5 (Race 2)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 11:29 AM

Pimlico Race Course Picks - Saturday, May 14, 2022

Race 1: 4-2-7-3
Race 2: 2-4-3-6
Race 3: 2-5-7-4
Race 4: 7-2-6-3
Race 5: 3-9-6-10
Race 6: 6-1-4-9
Race 7: 2-4-1-5
Race 8: 6-2-3-5
Race 9: 6-3-2-5
**Most Likely: Summer Beauty #4 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Trikki Nikki #3 (Race 5)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 11:30 AM

Belmont Park Picks: Playing the Late P4 on May 14
By J.N. Campbell

Belmont Park Picks - Saturday, May 14, 2022

Race 1: 3-6-9-1
Race 2: 2-7-1-5
Race 3: 5-2-4-3
Race 4: 10-8-12-2
Race 5: 1-3-2-5
Race 6: 3-9-5-7
Race 7: 4-9-1/1A-7
Race 8: 3-2-6-4
Race 9: 2-4-6-1
Race 10: 2-5-1-4
Race 11: 9-11-4-7
**Most Likely: Yibir (GB) #3 (Race 8)**
**Best Value: Foolish Ghost #4 (Race 7)**

LATE PICK 4 …

LEG 1: (Race 8: Turf, 1 3/8ths, Man o’ War S. (G1), $700k, 4+)

As we welcome another Belmont Saturday, it is time to get after the Late Pick 4 ticket together! I have an affordable play that is worth a look ... With 3 of the 4 races being “stakes” quality, that makes for some fun ‘capping. This opening leg brings together 6 distance turfers, but let’s make no bones about it … this is a contest between Christophe Clement’s Gufo #2 and Charlie Appleby’s Yibir (GB) #3. Of these, I am all-in on backing Appleby’s classy son of Dubawi (IRE). The Godolphin homebred might have missed in his 2 starts this year, but those were very tough international affairs in Dubai (UAE), and at Newmarket (GB). I know Clement’s son of Declaration of War is going to be tough to handle, but my sense is that he cannot match the late turn-of-foot of the Appleby ace. William Buick makes the trip over, and he is going to have quite a 24hrs … he will be hopping a flight to France to ride Modern Games the next day. This is the perfect spot to “Single,” which will assist us as this sequence begins to take shape.

Selections: 3 (Single)

LEG 2: (Race 9: Dirt, 1 1/8th, Peter Pan S. (G3), $200k, 3)

This year’s edition of the “Pan” is a challenging race to handicap, but I am zeroed in on yet another “Single.” I know Todd Pletcher’s Complete Agenda #3 has potential, and Rudy Brisset has an uncoupled entry that could surprise … However, for my money, I want to support Chad Brown’s Electability #2. The Klaravich colt is coming into Belmont on a 2-race win streak, and he is looking for more. He has shown the ability to go a mile, and I don’t see why he couldn’t get this distance. The rider switch to Irad Ortiz only strengthens the case, as does Brown’s proclivity to score in races like these at NYRA. When this pair team-up, they can roll over almost anyone. Looking over the back half of the LP4, I am going to need to go deeper … I already know that … So, I am somewhat relieved that I have such a strong set of opinions in these 2 races. Let’s move right along, trusting that the son of Quality Road can get the job done. Belmont Stakes bound, if he passes this test? Hmm …

Selections: 2 (Single)

LEG 3: (Race 10: Turf, 1 1/16th, Beaugay S. (G3), $150k, F&M 4+)

It would be pretty simple to just pick one of Chad Brown’s latest acquisitions, and be done with it. Yep, another “Single.” However, I am not so sure that Rougir (FR) #1 is a lock to win the Grade 3 Beaugay S. The 4-yr-old filly by Territories (IRE) sold for a whopping $3.3 million last year to Peter Brant and Michael Tabor … a couple of titans when it comes to Thoroughbred ownership. Even though their new acquisition was 7th in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1), he was coming off a major victory in the Prix de l’Opera (G1) at Longchamp (FR) in early October. With Flavien Prat in the irons, she is going to be tough to tackle. I think I can beat her with either Chad Brown’s own layoff runner in Lemista (IRE) #2, or Jorge Abreu’s long shot, Runaway Rumour #5. The former is totally logical because she was in this exact spot last year, as she made her North American debut for her trainer. Since then, she has only raced a couple of other times (Saratoga/Arlington). The services of Irad Ortiz are a check to Prat’s ability, and she has the potential to exhibit some nice turn-of-foot, late in the game. I want to include Abreu’s runner because of all the entries; this daughter of Flintshire (GB) (a sire who you would think would have a strong turf record, but does not) has the best record at Belmont on the turf. She clearly takes to the grass, and even though her record is sorely lacking, she has some nice class lines that deserve some respect. You never know what kind of magic Jose Lezcano can wield in situations like this … and the price is going to be boxcar-esque. My 2 picks should give us the chance to take home this particular leg, and afford us the ability to go deeper in the nightcap. Wait till you see that race!

Selections: 2/5 (2-Deep)

LEG 4: (Race 11: Turf, 7F, ALLW80n1x, F&M 3+, NY Breds)

Before John’s sign-off, we have a tough sprint-route on the always-challenging Widener Turf Course … not for the faint of heart, folks! When it comes to a top selection, I am pretty interested in the exploits of Tony Dutrow’s Palace Gossip #9. This filly by Palace Malice ran nicely at Aqueduct once they removed the turf blankets from the grass course. She was always in that ALLW race, but just did not have enough in the end to close it out. Eric Cancel knows what this one can do, and she has the tactical ability to either get to the lead or find a spot 2-3 off-the-pace for a ground-saving trip. Let’s use this one, but I also like the ability of Christophe Clement’s Autumn Glory #11, Mike Trombetta’s Dufresne #7, George Weaver’s Finest Work #6, and Mike Maker’s Rigby #4 … each of these is either on-the-make from MSW Co., or is looking to drop out of a more pressure-packed race. I think any one of these runners could win, and that makes me confident that we are covered. Let’s go get this ticket cashed …

Selections: 4/6/7/9/11 (5-Deep)

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Ticket: 3 /2 / 2-5 / 4-6-7-9-11

.50 LP4 COST: $5.00

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 11:30 AM

Pimlico Picks: Saturday racing a week before Preakness on May 14
By J.N. Campbell

Pimlico Race Course Picks - Saturday, May 14, 2022

Race 1: 4-2-7-3
Race 2: 2-4-3-6
Race 3: 2-5-7-4
Race 4: 7-2-6-3
Race 5: 3-9-6-10
Race 6: 6-1-4-9
Race 7: 2-4-1-5
Race 8: 6-2-3-5
Race 9: 6-3-2-5
**Most Likely: Summer Beauty #4 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Trikki Nikki #3 (Race 5)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 1: Summer Beauty #4, 9/2):

We have already had a strong record on the opening race of each PIM card, so hopefully we can keep that going. I found a nice shot in this filly by Carpe Diem for trainer Sarah Nagle. The last time this one hit the track, it was an off-the-turf affair at Gulfstream Park against similar company. This race will be an easy spot, and jockey Jevian Toledo already has a good Meet going. Looks like we might have another winner on our hands at odds of 9/2!

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #4

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 5: Trikki Nikki #3, 8/1):

Here is a mare by Lemon Drop Kid that I suspect is going to be sharp off-the-bench. I think as a 4-yr-old she got tired, and lost interest throughout her summer campaign. If you look at her earlier races, when she was fresh at Penn and then at Pimlico, she turned in some nice performances. Back at it, she is going to be more than a square price on the grass, as Angel Cruz takes the mount.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #3 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Turf, 5F, OC50kb, F&M 3+):

Even though the Pimlico Meet does not last long, one of its hallmarks continues to be the 5-furlong turf races … With competitive fields, you can find some nice ones in races just like this one. Of course, it is evident that Brittany Russell’s Adelaide Miss #2 and Mike Trombetta’s Spun Glass #3 are the classiest draws in here. Either has the ability to win going this distance, but I would give preference to the former. Russell is a premier trainer, and one of these days she is going to gain national attention of the “graded” variety. This filly by Vancouver (AUS) is coming off a campaign down at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, and the cutback in distance (compared to what she is used to running) might do the trick. She knows the PIM grass course, and I think if you could get odds somewhere around 3/1, then that qualifies as an overlay. One other runner that I would like to use is Tim Keefe’s Dendrobia #6. This seasoned mare by Denman (AUS) is dropping down after running over at Laurel in the King Leatherbury $100k. This one is classy, and she hasn’t taken a on OC Co. as low as this since 2020. Forest Boyce can get some winners home, so the order of the day is … tote watch. If she ends up the 3rd or even 4th choice, then she is without a doubt the best price on the board. Here is the bet …

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Box, 2/3/6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 11:34 AM

Rocket Picks ��: Churchill Downs, Santa Anita, and Belmont Park for May 14, 2022
By: Jared Welch

It’s time for another weekend of racing! For the free pick 4, we will head to Belmont Park for the late sequence on the card. We will also have full card selections for Santa Anita and Churchill Downs for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s go!

Below is our free Late Pick 4 for Belmont Park:

Belmont Park May 14, 2022

Race 8: Man o War Stakes (G1)

#3 Yibir returns to the United States today after back to back runner up efforts against tougher international runners. Last year he one twice here, including the Breeders Cup Turf (G1). #2 Gufo is one of our best turf horses; however, he must improve to beat Yibir.

Race 9: Peter Pan Stakes (G3)
freestar

#2 Electability has won two straight races at Aqueduct, which has him ready to take on tougher company in this spot. #5 Golden Glider will be taking a drop down in class for this race after a decent fourth place effort against solid horse in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2).

Race 10: Beaugay Stakes (G3)

#1 Rougir is now in the Chad Brown barn, with Flavien Prat aboard, which reminds you a lot of Speak of the Devil one week ago. Look for this filly to run a big race. #2 Lemista is the other Chad Brown horse in the race with a chance. Her best effort will make her competitive.

Race 11: Allowance

#2 Act of Congress was a five length winner on debut last time out and should fit in well with this group today. #3 Masterof the Tunes has the experience edge over most of this group, while she makes her second start off of the layoff in this spot.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 8-11) 3 / 1,2,4,5,6 / 1,2 / 2,3,9,10,11 – $25

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 11:34 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4-$50,000 Guaranteed Pool

May 14, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a 13-race card scheduled featuring Open pacers and Graduate Series action. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 begins in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Hail Christian N (7/2)-Raced well in last and was caught late. Comes back versus the same kind and moves in a few slots. TMac should have the 8-year-old forwardly placed.
2-Leon David (4-1)-Similar to #1 coming out of the same race but was used from the 7-hole to drop into the pocket and ended up cashing a 3rd place check. His 3-race win streak was snapped in last, but it wasn't a bad effort. Will respect this winner of 5 races in 18 M1 starts.
6-Bettors Donttell (3-1)-Burke trainee was facing tough foes in the last 2 starts and should be a main threat versus this group. Tried Lasix for the 1st time and Gingras should have the pedal down early and could be in control from gate to wire.

Race 7

1-Mayhem Hanover (9/2)-The 0-12 record at the Big M is cause for pause but comes off a nice try when dropped to this level. Dunn sticks and this post draw could help.
2-Heza Real Diamond (5-1)-Took advantage of a sharp steer and beat easier last week, now Callahan will be in the bike. Steps-up, should compete and have no problem racing near the top of the stack.
4-Motive Hanover (3-1)-Jen B entry has missed a start and has been facing high priced claimers from outside posts in the last 2 tries. Should be able to get a good early seat and could be sitting on a big effort.
5-De Los Cielos Deo (7/2)-Has been in the mix versus better and should be in the hunt here. Gingras could get on the engine and this time he won't be caught down the lane.

Race 8

1-Bella Bellini (9/5)-Comes off a sharp effort last week and trotted the back half in 54.4 with a .26 last quarter. Looks primed for the 1st win of 2022 in the 2nd start off the bench.

Race 9

1-Mikala (5/2)-Has a perfect 2 for 2 record this season and both were convincing wins. This mare should be in control from the word "go" and not look back.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,2,6/1,2,4,5/1/1
Total Bet=$6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-14-2022, 11:35 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary - 5-14-22

May 14, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Hudson Ridge; 6-There Goes Harvard; 1-Sword Zorro

Forecast: Let’s go for a bit of gamble with Hudson Ridge (TOC=8-1; ML=6-1) in this second-level allowance turf miler that came up quite competitive. A stakes winner as a 3-year-old over the local lawn, the son of American Pharoah has been unplaced in his last five starts but continues to train well while stretching out again, removing blinkers, and switching to J. Hernandez. He’s 6-1 on the morning line and is better than that off his best effort, so in a race that projects to have soft early splits the S. McCarthy-trained colt should draft into an ideal stalking position and have every chance from there. There Goes Harvard (TOC=2-1; ML=4-1) earned a huge number when dead-heating in a victory against a softer group on the main track last month. He is just as good if not better on grass, and projects to settle in the second flight outside with dead aim on the leaders every step of the way. Sword Zorro (TOC=6-1; ML=7/2) launches a comeback for J. Sadler (superior stats with layoff runners) and won the Singletary S. over this course and distance last year. His recent workouts indicate fitness, so with some pace up front the Irish-bred colt should be heard from late.

Notable Workouts:

Sword Zorro (May 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h TT). Grade: B
Mild coaxing throughout in solid solo training track work on the comeback trail for Sadler, splits of :24.4, :36.2 and 1:00.4 on our watches. Coming back well at least as well as he left, was a stakes winner over the local lawn last year; still has second-level allowance conditions.
View Workout Video

Vantastic (May 8, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h TT). Grade: B+
Looked sharp and eager in solo training track drill for P. Eurton, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :35 flat (may have gone faster than given). Can sprint or route when he’s on his game.
View Workout Video

Hudson Ridge (May 8, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h TT). Grade: B
Very light coaxing late in solo training track drill for S. McCarthy, strong throughout with splits of :23.4, :35.4, and :59.4, plenty left late. Seems perked up for an improved try based on this drill.
View Workout Video

Moody Jim (May 4, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B-
Mild urging through the lane in solo training track drill for J. Mullins, splits of :24.3, :36.3 and 1:01 flat on our watches, okay work, nothing scintillating. May not be quite as sharp now as he’s been in the past.
View Workout Video

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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Royal Halo; 1-Knockout Guy

Forecast: Royal Halo may not be as quick as his :34 3/5 gate drill shows – he was asked pretty hard and went a few ticks slower than given while second best of a team – but in a maiden state-bred sprint for juveniles that came up weaker than normal the son of Curlin to Mischief probably deserves top billing by default. The barn generally does well with its young stock, so we’ll put this homebred colt on top while also including Knockout Guy, a debuting son of Ministers Wild Cat with a reasonable series of workouts on his resume. He might be able to run some but will need to leave cleanly from the rail. Tread lightly here.

Notable Workouts:

Royal Halo (May 11, Santa Anita, 3f, :34.3hg). Grade: B-
Ridden aggressively every step of the way while second best with Helladic (5f, 1:01.1hg) for L. Mendez, a couple of lengths behind workmate went eased up after three furlongs and going slower than given on our watches, :23.2 and :35 flat. Has bit of run but not as good as inflated final time might lead one to believe, though he’s likely good enough to act with soft maiden Cal-bred juveniles in upcoming debut.
View Workout Video

Good N Thirsty (May 7, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h). Grade: C+
Asked and ridden in the final furlong in solo five furlong drill for Solis, splits of :36.2 and 1:02.1 on our watches, a couple of ticks slower and not visually impressive. From cold barn, probably would prefer to see one first.
View Workout Video

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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Aventapp; 1-Stressed; 5-Girl Ranger

Forecast: Aventapp (TOC=9/5; ML=5-1) wired a maiden $50,000 field in a confidence-building score over this course and distance last month and appears well-spotted for a possible repeat in this starter’s allowance sprint for fillies and mares. The main concern is that she will have to contend with a quicker early pace today, especially if Stressed is gunned from the rail. Stressed (TOC=5-1; ML=4-1) returns to the claiming ranks for the first time since beating a maiden $80,000 field more than a year ago on dirt. This will be her second outing following a layoff, and the daughter of Goldencents seems likely to produce a forward move. Girl Ranger is turning back from a couple of route tries and might be a late threat if patiently ridden. In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, all three should be included in rolling exotic play.

Notable Workouts:

Girl Ranger (May 7, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: C+
Mild urging through the lane while inside Cinnamon Cat (same time) while working from three furlong pole to the seven furlong pole, splits of :11.4, :36.2 and :49 flat on our watches. Nothing special on dirt, probably prefers the lawn.
View Workout Video

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RACE 4: Post: 2:43 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 1-Golf Drama; 4-Fordy G; 5-Thirsty John

Forecast: Here’s a split of the second race, a maiden juvenile abbreviated sprint. This looks like the tougher division. Golf Drama recorded a three furlong gate drill in :36 2/5 earlier this month (see below) but actually went considerably faster than given and looked good doing it. The son of Smiling Tiger is bred to win early, so if he breaks cleanly from the rail the J. Bonde-trained colt should have a big say in the matter. Fordy G. has a series of fast gate works on his resume and clearly has been cranked up for a major effort first time out. He’s a homebred son of American Freedom that seems certain to receive plenty of play on the tote. Thirsty John probably is a down the road type but he can run a bit, might be closing well, and is worth tossing in on a ticket or two for protection.

Notable Workouts:

Golf Drama (May 1, Santa Anita, 3f, :36.3hg). Grade: B+
Was a tad slow leaving the gate but then displayed excellent speed while besting Lucy L (4f, :48.4hg) for J. Bonde while going several ticks quicker than given, splits of :23.4 and :35 flat without undue pressure. Son of Smiling Tiger appears to have “win early” ability and should be a live item first crack out of the box when facing juvenile state-bred runners.
View Workout Video

Smokin Amelia (May 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.3h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, under a nice hold throughout inside Cocktail Princess (same time), final three furlongs in :12 flat and :37.1. No world beater but probably has a bit of improvement in her.
View Workout Video

Midnight Lightning (April 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :50h). Grade: B-
Clearly best over Golden Again (4f, :50h) in easy breeze for S. Knapp, splits of :12.2, :24.1 and :49.4, never asked. Getting fit, was run up to $130,000 at auction last year and may have some ability.
View Workout Video

Fordy G (April 28, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.2hg). Grade: B
Urged most of the way while second best with older Honor It (5f, :59.4hg) and well ahead of Reign of Speed (4f, :48.2hg) for Hanson, splits of :23 flat, :34.2 and :46.4, excellent speed for a juvenile. Have to think he’ll be live at first asking in an abbreviated dash.
View Workout Video

Thirsty John (April 24, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.3h). Grade: B-
A bit awkward changing leads but did okay in solo main track drill for Solis, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36.3. Was run up to $97,000 at auction last year; strikes us as a colt that probably will do his best when the distances increase. Has some ability.
View Workout Video

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RACE 5: Post: 3:16 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Queen Goddess

Forecast: Queen Goddess (TOC=3/5; ML=6/5) will be trying this marathon trip for the first time but based on pedigree (Empire Maker x Lemon Drop Kid) the M. McCarthy-trained filly should have no trouble handling the 12-furlong distance, especially in her projected role as the controlling speed. A recent victory over 10 furlongs in the Santa Ana S.-G3 with Neige Blanche behind her was visually pleasing, and as the winner of the American Oaks-G1 on dirt in December in gate to wire fashion she certainly knows how to take advantage of a front-running trip. At 6/5 on the morning line, she’s a rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Queen Goddess (May 7, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B
Ridden some through the lane and responded well enough, final half mile in :24 flat and :48.2 while holding her edge. Tough at any surface but might be most comfortable on turf, next stop Santa Barbara S.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Post: 3:49 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Your Ringer; 6-Poet Laureate

Forecast: Your Ringer was claimed for $50,000 last summer in her debut at Del Mar (she was beaten a nose while more than three lengths clear of the rest) but had to be stopped on soon after. She returns in a plausible spot for trainer J. Sadler (strong stats with layoff runners) and shows a series of workouts over the very fast Los Alamitos main track that should have her fit enough. Poet Laureate is a first-timer from the T. Yakteen barn with a solid foundation of workouts, including a gate drill (see below) that was good enough to make her a threat in this league. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Your Ringer.

Notable Workouts:

Poet Laureate (April 24, Santa Anita, 4f, :48hg). Grade: B-
Okay work for a maiden claiming type, splits of :24 flat, :35.4 and :48 flat while even but a tad the best inside Lucy L (same time) for Yakteen, ridden some early but under no real pressure late. Seems fairly fit, should be competitive with moderate fillies and mares.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 7-Suite Madam Blue; 5-Harper’s Gallop; 6-Storming Lady; 2-Respectfully

Forecast: This grass grab bag for starter allowance fillies and mares requires a considerable spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go four-deep but if you feel the need to include a few more, go right ahead. Suite Madam Blue (TOC=2-1; ML=3-1) looked pretty nice beating a starter $25,000 field over this turf course last time out, employing a good pace-stalking strategy and then coming away late to win with a career top speed figure. If she can turn in two alike, she can win again. Harper’s Gallop (TOC=3-1; ML=, away since November but coming from the L. Powell barn (strong stats from a limited sample with this angle), might prefer more distance and in fact might be prepping for a stretch-out, but her grass form is solid and she is reunited with “win rider” J. Hernandez. Storming Lady (TOC=5-1; ML=4-1) is another that likely will be doing her best work from off the pace. This extended sprint trip seems ideal for her. Respectfully (TOC=6-1; ML=6-1) has a prior win over this course and distance and comes off a clever score in a state-bred allowance race on the main track. She is slower on numbers than the other main contenders but is still worth including as a back-up or a saver.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:50 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-One More Bid; 6-Go Joe Won

Forecast: One More Bid projects as the controlling speed if he wants to be in this maiden mile affair that attracted a modest field of just six runners. The R. Hanson-trained gelding exits a pair of much tougher events, shows strong workouts since raced, and really shouldn’t miss this chance at 2-1 on the morning line. Go Joe Won displayed improvement when second over this track and distance in his second career outing last month and is worth using as a back-up or a saver, with the main punch going to One More Bid.

Notable Workouts:

Palagio (May 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.4h). Grade: C+
Never really asked but didn’t do a whole lot in solo main track drill, final half mile in :24.3 and :51.1. Perhaps a lazy type and certainly isn’t very inspiring in the a.m. Have to think he can improve some with experience and distance.
View Workout Video

Lord Sheldon (May 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h). Grade: C+
Plodding type went off slowly and then was urged through the lane without much pick-up, splits of :12.4, :25 flat, :36.4 and 1:02 flat on our watches. Down the road type.
View Workout Video

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RACE 9: Post: 5:21 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 9-Rose’s Crystal; 1-Virulante; 4-With This Vow

Forecast: The nightcap is a difficult starter’s allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. We’ll go three deep but not with a great deal of confidence. Rose’s Crystal (TOC=9/2; ML=4-1) adds blinkers for the first time, and with enough pace up front to compliment her style she may be able to produce a winning late kick, though she’s generally prefers to just nibble. But on pure numbers, she’s capable of winning this race. Virulente (TOC=7/2; ML=6-1) earned a confidence building win in an optional $50,000 claimer at this trip over the local lawn last month, though the number came up a tad weak. The French-bred filly has a good stalking style and plenty of room for improvement, and from her favorable rail draw the P. D’Amato-trained import is guaranteed a ground-saving trip. Win This Vow (TOC=5/2; ML=5-1) wired the field over this course and distance in a slightly softer starter’s event and similar tactics most likely will be tried today. She’s clearly in good form but will need to produce a forward move to win at this level.