Saturday 5/14/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Race of the Week: Santa Barbara at Santa Anita | Saturday, May 14

May 11, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Turf marathon fillies and mares take center stage Saturday at Santa Anita for the Santa Barbara. The mile and one-half test could have its first repeat champ since Astra and Megahertz dominated this race from 2001-2005. NEIGE BLANCHE won a nose thriller here a year ago, and will be part of the six-pack of challengers that compete in Race 5 on the card.

Field Depth:
QUEEN GODDESS is a Grade 1 winner and has the signature score of this lineup. NEIGE BLANCHE is Grade 1-placed and a multiple Grade 3 winner. The remaining quartet will be tested strongly for class.

Pace:
COVER VERSION has dabbled in sprints and miles and could be sent to the front of what appears to be a very modest early pace. QUEEN GODDESS also could set the tempo from the rail or sit likely no worse than second. NEIGE BLANCHE is a pace wildcard, having won the Red Carpet wire-to-wire, last year's Santa Barbara from a stalking third and a Del Mar stakes from 6 lengths off the pace. Expect NEIGE BLANCHE's rider Juan Hernandez to put QUEEN GODDESS in his crosshairs and not let her get away from them.

Our Eyes:
QUEEN GODDESS out-kicked NEIGE BLANCHE last time out in the mile and one-quarter Santa Ana. Both carried equal weights that day and do once again. The distance becomes the big variable to the equation as NEIGE BLANCE is 2-2 at the 12-furlong journey and QUEEN GODDESS has yet to try it. With Belmont Stakes winners as the sire and damsire, there's no reason to think QUEEN GODDESS won't handle it. And as a 4-year-old, you'd assume there's more upside with QUEEN GODDESS and turn of foot vs. the 5-year-old NEIGE BLANCHE. They should have the run of this race and the lean goes to QUEEN GODDESS to repeat her recent victory over NEIGE BLANCHE, and not the latter's title defense.

NEW HEAT is a 3-time course winner who has a deep-closing style that likely won't be flattered by this race shape. QUEEN OFTHE TEMPLE exits a fifth-start maiden breaker and is devoid of any early foot. CARPE VINEM was 37-1 when beaten 7 lengths by the favored pair here in the Santa Ana. COVER VERSION is only 1-11 at Santa Anita and her recent form has been flattered by trips to Turf Paradise.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
QUEEN GODDESS is in peak form and just beat her principal rival in this race.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
None projected.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 exacta QUEEN GODDESS over NEIGE BLANCHE. Your best value here will be singling QUEEN GODDESS in the early and late pick five, which this Race 5 will be part of both on a 9-race program.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 Queen Goddess She just handled some of these last out, and she has the right kind of running style to find a good trip from the fence. She should be in a pretty perfect spot into the far turn, and it looks like her race to lose.
#3 Queen of the Temple Maiden riser gets a big class test today, but she might get a decent enough trip from midpack in this small field. She has been getting better the longer she runs, and she's not out of the question if she loves the trip.
#4 Neige Blanche She didn't have the easiest of trips last time out when chasing the top choice, but she will probably sit closer today and wouldn't be a surprise to turn the tables.
Race Summary Queen Goddess won't be a price, but she is in good form and has a tactical edge over a couple other logical players. Queen of the Temple is interesting off the maiden win, as she is still getting better and might find this trip to her liking.

Santa Anita - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 Suite Madam Blue She has some pace in a race without a ton of serious speed lined up, and it looks like she's the main threat here if she's able to just hold her form that has already propelled her to two wins here this year.
#6 Storming Lady Her better tries stack up nicely with these, and she might find a pretty perfect spying spot with this group. Her running lines fit with this kind of company, and her somewhat spotty form includes a handful of tries against much better.
#3 Flying to the Line Cutback player brings good Turf Paradise form with her, and she doesn't seem completely overmatched for a chance at a share against these. Along late?
Race Summary Suite Madam Blue should get a trip that gives her every chance to land this from right up on the splits, as she appears to have the most committed pace in a race where most will settle.

Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Go Joe Won He moved up in a big way when sent around two turns, and he showed some pace that day which should serve him well against a group without a ton of early speed. Perfect trip from this post?
#2 One More Bid He caught a tough winner last out, but he still hasn't shown a really fierce finishing gear yet, and I worry he'll get stuck chasing the top choice into the far turn.
#4 Lord Sheldon He's probably better down the road, but I'm not really convinced about the depth in this group, so he may not have to be a heavy hitter to get a piece of this at first asking.
Race Summary Go Joe Won stuck around nicely when trying a route trip for the first time, and he's fast enough to find position into the first turn from his wide draw, and he should be able to get first jump on a couple of deeper threats.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Pocono Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#7 COXCOMB Won from post 10, just missed after fast back half in follow-up.
#2 WESTERN WALTZ Couldn’t keep up with fleet-footed, 2-to-5 fave, moves outside in.
#5 CHUCK THE CHEESE Won from on and off the pace recently at the Meadows.
Race Summary Meadows invader Coxcomb was out-kicked by the 17-1 pocket sitter through a :55.4 back half in his bid for a repeat victory. Early position will be key as he starts for a new barn. Play a 7-ALL exacta.

Northfield Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 IVANNA IVY Winning machine seeks third in a row, goes from one good barn to another.
#1 HERESLOOKNATYOU Rallied for second in three straight while ascending ranks.
#5 NOONE TO DEPEND ON Out-kicked for win at Miami Valley after fave broke stride.
Race Summary Ivanna Ivy has speed, loves to win and held on to repeat despite broken equipment. She can pay a quick dividend off the claim for high-percentage connections. Bet to win and place.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#8 ROCKIN N TALKIN Slowed by 42-1 leader, made late run at winner while 4-wide.
#5 DONTPOKETHEDRAGON Has loyal following, led until stretch, looks to recapture 2021 form.
#4 GRAND POOBAH Third against better two back, paced evenly in 1:50.2 in latest.
Race Summary Rockin N Talkin broke alertly from post 9, was shuffled from the pocket in the middle half as the longshot pace setter yielded, then raced evenly late to finish second while 4-wide. He draws outside again but could break through with his first win of the year in his third start of a current cycle. Play a 4-5-8 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lone Star Park Tip Sheet - May 14

LONE STAR PARK TIPS - SATURDAY, MAY 14, 2022

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $15,000 CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	9	Cobra Casablanca	E Valdez-Jiminez
PLACE	2-1	4	Summer Sangria	S Elliott
SHOW	12-1	8	Miss Aggie Bling	L J Luzzi
WILD CARD	5-2	7	Chikara	R Eikleberry
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Ignis	G Pivaral
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	1	Swanky	R Guerra
* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX
RACE #2 $34,500 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:03 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 SILVER WINGS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	3	Silver Wings	E Valdez-Jiminez
PLACE	2-1	6	Speight and Malice	J L Alvarez
SHOW	10-1	2	Piknituplaynitdown	J Melancon
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Chief Brady	R Guerra
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	4	Charliecando	R Eikleberry
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Flexati	W Hamilton
* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #3 $15,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:31 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Ready Edge	R Eikleberry
PLACE	9-2	4	Skywave	F Wethey Jr.
SHOW	7-2	7	True Diamond	S Elliott
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Revenir	D Sorenson
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Genomic	J L Alvarez
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	2	Feel the Berning	R Guerra
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #4 $25,000 CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:59 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-5	7	Salado	R Eikleberry
PLACE	5-1	3	Hes a Bomb	A Contreras
SHOW	9-2	8	Jackmans Ride	L D Goncalves
WILD CARD	12-1	5	Magna Punch	E Medellin
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Ironical	G Mora
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	6	Brahms Boy	G Steinberg
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX
RACE #5 $15,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:27 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 AVAILABLE STAR
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	2	Available Star	E Valdez-Jiminez
PLACE	9-2	1	Smoothee Lee	I V Diego
SHOW	3-1	3	Declined	G Mora
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Rancho Bargo	J Melancon
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	4	Rockos Wheel	G Steinberg
ALTERNATE 2	5-2	6	Tensas Toddy	R Eikleberry
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #6 $7,500 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Big Money Machine	R Eikleberry
PLACE	5-1	6	Victory Boulevard	G Mora
SHOW	2-1	3	Comedian	C Montalvo
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Flip the Coin Jan	G Pivaral
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Analyze This Jet	E Medellin
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	7	Gordon Anthony	E Valdez-Jiminez
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
RACE #7 $15,000 CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:23 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	8	Sams Time	R Eikleberry
PLACE	9-2	5	Samurai Cause	L J Luzzi
SHOW	9-2	9	Saturdays Gold	G Mora
WILD CARD	7-2	7	Agent McGee	R E Eramia
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	War Detonator	S Elliott
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	River Ruler	L D Goncalves
* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/8/9 BOX, 5/7/9 BOX
RACE #8 $33,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:51 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	2	Popeyes Heart	J L Alvarez
PLACE	5-1	6	With the Band	J Melancon
SHOW	15-1	7	Texan Boy	C Montalvo
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Silver and Gold	R Guerra
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	5	Texas Titan	G Mora
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Papa Molly	R Eikleberry
* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
RACE #9 $33,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 4 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:19 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 FAST TRACK
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Fast Track	S Elliott
PLACE	10-1	2	Kaylees Shadow	L J Luzzi
SHOW	7-2	3	Glitz and Glamour	R Eikleberry
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Let Freedom Bling	J Melancon
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	9	Duchessoflochwood	G Mora
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Gold Memories	E Valdez-Jiminez
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #10 $33,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:47 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Expect the Boss	S Elliott
PLACE	9-5	9	Optimistic Cowgirl	R E Eramia
SHOW	8-1	3	Just Claire	F Wethey Jr.
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Cold Night Air	R Eikleberry
ALTERNATE 1	30-1	2	Sherrys Baby	G Mora
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	10	Lumberjack Leslie	L D Goncalves
* EXACTA: 6-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/9 BOX, 3/7/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - May 14

SANTA ANITA TIPS - SATURDAY, MAY 14, 2022

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $72,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	1	Sword Zorro	D Van Dyke
PLACE	6-1	3	Hudson Ridge	J J Hernandez
SHOW	4-1	2	Vantastic	A Cedillo
WILD CARD	3-1	5	Moody Jim	T Baze
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	6	There Goes Harvard	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	4	Tidal Forces	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #2 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 4 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:35 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Royal Halo	R Gonzalez
PLACE	3-1	1	Knockout Guy	D Van Dyke
SHOW	4-1	7	Hot Memories	E A Ellingwood
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Lov U Mean It	T Baze
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	3	Good N Thirsty	K Frey
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Smokem Howard	E Payeras
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #3 $40,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:09 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	4	Aventapp	T Baze
PLACE	5-2	7	Founders Day	M E Smith
SHOW	6-1	5	Girl Ranger	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	4-1	1	Stressed	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	3	Westward Breeze	R Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	6	Roses and Candy	K Frey
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #4 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 4 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:43 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Smokin Amelia	E Payeras
PLACE	5-2	4	Fordy G	D A Herrera
SHOW	10-1	3	Midnight Lightning	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Thirsty John	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Golf Drama	T Baze
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	7	My Man Biggie	A Cedillo
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #5 $125,000 STAKES 1 1/2 MILES ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 6:16 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $125,000 SANTA BARBARA STAKES GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	4	Neige Blanche	J J Hernandez
PLACE	6-5	1	Queen Goddess	V Espinoza
SHOW	6-1	3	Queen Ofthe Temple	D Van Dyke
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Carpe Vinum	A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	New Heat	T Baze
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Cover Version	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 1,4/1,3,4,6
* TRIFECTA: 1,4/1,3,4,6/1,2,3,4,6
COMMENTS: NEIGE BLANCHE is undefeated in two at the distance. QUEEN GODDESS has three wins a second and third in six on grass. QUEEN OF THE TEMPLE got the maiden win in her last with her fourth straight speed number increase. CARPE VINUM just missed in her last and is likely to improve in her third start after a layoff.
RACE #6 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:49 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 YOUR RINGER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	2	Your Ringer	R A Vazquez
PLACE	3-1	3	Darling Donna	T Baze
SHOW	3-1	1	Sweet Heidelberg	K Frey
WILD CARD	5-1	6	Poet Laureate	A Cedillo
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Miss Mensa	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Violent Runner	E A Ellingwood
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #7 $40,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:19 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 SUITE MADAM BLUE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	7	Suite Madam Blue	M E Smith
PLACE	6-1	2	Respectfully	D A Herrera
SHOW	4-1	6	Storming Lady	J Pyfer
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Harpers Gallop	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Flying to the Line	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	Invincibella	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #8 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Go Joe Won	J Valdivia Jr.
PLACE	2-1	2	One More Bid	T Baze
SHOW	3-1	5	Troubadour	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Palagio	V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	3	Q B One	D Van Dyke
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Lord Sheldon	A Cedillo
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #9 $40,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:21 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 WITH THIS VOW
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	4	With This Vow	J J Hernandez
PLACE	12-1	8	Floral Essence	T Baze
SHOW	4-1	9	Roses Crystal	J Bravo
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Virulente	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	5	Agreetodisagree	R Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	3	Sky On Ice	D Van Dyke
* EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 1/8/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pimlico Tip Sheet - May 14

PIMLICO TIPS - SATURDAY, MAY 14, 2022

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $32,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:40 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	4	Summer Beauty	J Toledo
PLACE	7-2	3	Sommer Velvet	C E Lopez
SHOW	12-1	6	Miss Foxann	X Perez
WILD CARD	12-1	9	Rockinhippiechick	J Barbosa
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	11	Mamba Queen	A Bocachica
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	La Familia	B L Butterfly
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/6/9 BOX
RACE #2 $5,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	4	Marvella Nasty	A Bocachica
PLACE	2-1	2	Run Awesome Tiz	J Barbosa
SHOW	4-1	3	Joyful Noise	G Whitacre
WILD CARD	5-1	6	Parched Ghost	J Toledo
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	5	Eloquent Lady	L Corujo
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	1	Offlee Graysful	A Lopez
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
RACE #3 $46,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:47 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Serifos	V R Carrasco
PLACE	6-1	6	Money Room	L Corujo
SHOW	5-1	4	Succeed	A Cruz
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Run Away Empire	J Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Eyen a Deal	A Suarez
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	2	Carvellian Quest	C Marquez
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
RACE #4 $6,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:19 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 GHOST STALKER
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	2	Ghost Stalker	D Centeno
PLACE	5-1	1	Pay the Kid	J D Acosta
SHOW	5-1	5	Haynes Fever	T Lyapustina
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Threethehardway	F Boyce
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	7	Excalibur	M Enriquez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Itsknownasthebern	A Delgado
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
RACE #5 $12,500 CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:51 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	9	Fast Lani	Y Aviles
PLACE	6-1	1	Hello Gracie	K Gomez
SHOW	12-1	2	El Bochinche	J Barbosa
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Trikki Nikki	A Cruz
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	15	Bossy Mama	A Bocachica
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	6	Miss Is Zippy	J Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #6 $8,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:21 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 ICY REPLY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Icy Reply	L Garcia
PLACE	6-1	6	Shes a Tripp	J Rosado
SHOW	4-1	9	Harpers Do	G Whitacre
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Kisses for Hannah	J C Alvelo
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	Mejoramiga	B L Butterfly
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	10	Petite Rouge	J Barbosa
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/9 BOX, 1/6/9 BOX
RACE #7 $32,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:49 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Hot Lookin Royal	A Cruz
PLACE	8-5	2	Date Night Kisses	C Marquez
SHOW	6-1	5	Fancy Princess	M Enriquez Jr.
WILD CARD	12-1	6	Monarch Beach	Y Aviles
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	4	Camelia Rod	L Corujo
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Mail Call	J C Alvelo
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
RACE #8 $56,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:19 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	9	Margies Heaven	J Barbosa
PLACE	3-1	2	Adelaide Miss	J Toledo
SHOW	2-1	3	Spun Glass	F Lynch
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Polished Gal	J Ruiz
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	8	The Grass Is Blue	J Ruiz
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Foggy Dreams	A Cruz
* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/9 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #9 $8,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:52 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 NO MORE MASK
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	2	No More Mask	J D Acosta
PLACE	3-1	5	Mo Fire	G Whitacre
SHOW	7-2	6	Sax	J R Betancourt
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Market of Stocks	J Toledo
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	1	Salty Saul	M Enriquez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Miz the Best	Y Aviles
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - May 14

CHURCHILL DOWNS TIPS - SATURDAY, MAY 14, 2022

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $72,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	5	American Hero	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	4-1	3	Prayforpeace	M Murrill
SHOW	2-1	2	Summer in Malibu	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	5-2	1	Cole Spur	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	4	Turnsandconditions	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2	5-2	1A	Bureau	R Bejarano
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #2 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:28 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 MARCIES CANDY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	5	Marcies Candy	S Leon
PLACE	9-5	1	Tapalong	F Geroux
SHOW	9-2	7	Brunella	J Rocco Jr.
WILD CARD	8-5	6	Russian Roulette	G Saez
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	4	Sun Dress	J K Court
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Smokin Hot Bobbie	R Bejarano
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/6/7 BOX
RACE #3 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:56 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	1	Purple Dream	J Talamo
PLACE	7-2	5	Run Run Rapidash	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	3-1	6	Foliage	C J Hernandez
WILD CARD	4-1	8	Sky and Sand	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	2-1	9	Runpat	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Caramelito	R Diaz
* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX
RACE #4 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:26 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 DUNVEGAN DOLL
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	4	Dunvegan Doll	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	3-1	6	Avendore	J Graham
SHOW	5-2	1	Chopin Drive	G Saez
WILD CARD	12-1	5	Wildcat Dream	S Leon
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	3	Kiss Theory	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Nibbles	C J Lanerie
* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
RACE #5 $20,000 CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:57 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Scales of Justice	R Diaz
PLACE	7-2	4	Hellorhighwater	C Miller
SHOW	3-1	1	Drop Anchor	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Mo Betta	C Bailey
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	6	Loving Lucky	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	3	Kiss Principal	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #6 $10,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	2	Sonic City	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	6-1	4	Tightwad	J Talamo
SHOW	3-1	1A	Chase Tracker	G Saez
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Ronithelimodriver	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	1	River Redemption	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Ferryboat	J Graham
* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #7 $127,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 9:05 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	1	Walkathon	J R Leparoux
PLACE	10-1	10	Schlofmitz	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	7-2	7	Arrobatic	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	7-2	8	Glenall	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Take the Backroads	J Graham
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	Fancy Martini	B J Hernandez Jr.
* EXACTA: 1-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/10 BOX, 7/8/10 BOX
RACE #8 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 9:39 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 QUICK TO BLAME
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	6	Quick to Blame	F Geroux
PLACE	20-1	8	Jedrek	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	3-1	7	Uncle Berley	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Arrow Strike	R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Marvelousmoondance	F Peterson
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Commander Compton	G Saez
* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX
RACE #9 $160,000 STAKES 5 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 10:11 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $160,000 MAMZELLE OVERNIGHT STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	5	Twilight Gleaming	T Gaffalione
PLACE	3-1	2	Mystic Eyes	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	6-1	9	Artos	J R Leparoux
WILD CARD	15-1	7	Royal County	S Leon
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	10	Tizplenty	V Cheminaud
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Majestic dOro	J Talamo
* EXACTA: 2,5,7,9 Box
* TRIFECTA: 2,5,9/2,5,7,9/2,5,7,9,10
COMMENTS: TWILIGHT GLEAMING has three wins and three seconds in six races. MYSTIC EYES has two wins a second and third in four starts. ARTOS has the back class and could live up to it with a clean trip. ROYAL COUNTRY has a second as three thirds in four at the distance.
RACE #10 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 10:42 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	3	Liberty M D	J R Leparoux
PLACE	3-1	5	Gerri B	T Gaffalione
SHOW	6-1	4	Remain Anonymous	F Geroux
WILD CARD	6-1	1	New Roo	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	7	Allworthy	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Malloy	A Beschizza
* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
RACE #11 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 11:10 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	5	My Lily Mae	J Graham
PLACE	2-1	3	Beachfront Bid	T Gaffalione
SHOW	10-1	9	Aboukir Bay	A Beschizza
WILD CARD	12-1	4	Chiromante	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	16	Twirling Patti	C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	12	Robins Fantasy	F Geroux
* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/9 BOX, 3/4/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - May 14

BELMONT PARK TIPS - SATURDAY, MAY 14, 2022

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 DEVIL BOY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Devil Boy	J L Ortiz
PLACE	9-2	1	Conquist	T McCarthy
SHOW	8-1	2	Safalows Mission	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	7-2	3	Eminency	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	9	Fortunes Nephew	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	N Y Anthem	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #2 $35,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:34 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 RING OF FIRE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	2	Ring of Fire	D Davis
PLACE	7-2	7	Standup	F Prat
SHOW	5-2	1	Stanhope	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	20-1	10	Dee Bo	L A Rodriguez Castro
ALTERNATE 1	4-5	4	Secret Rules	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Loaded Joe	R Silvera
* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/7/10 BOX
RACE #3 $150,000 STAKES 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:05 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 VAGRANCY HANDICAP GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	5	Bella Sofia	L Saez
PLACE	3-1	2	Franks Rockette	F Prat
SHOW	3-1	4	Miss Brazil	E Cancel
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Kept Waiting	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	1	Assertive Style	J Castellano
* EXACTA: 5/2,4
* TRIFECTA: 5/2,4/2,3,4
COMMENTS: BELLA SOFIA has three wins and a second in four at Belmont. FRANKS ROCKETTE ran some of her fastest fractions in her last and could be better in the second off the bench. MISS BRAZIL ran the top last race speed figure and is another that could benefit in round two after a layoff. KEPT WAITING looks much better on paper than ASSERTIVE STYLE.
RACE #4 $60,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 2:34 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	12	Freedomofthepress	L Saez
PLACE	3-1	8	Miss Delicious	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	6-1	10	Stella Mars	D Davis
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Missing Link	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	9	Holiday Jazz	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	7	Happy Hill Lil	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 12-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX, 10-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 8/10/12 BOX, 2/8/10 BOX
RACE #5 $150,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:06 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 RUNHAPPY STAKES GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Repo Rocks	R Silvera
PLACE	6-1	6	Mr Phil	A Adorno
SHOW	5-2	1	Chateau	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Officiating	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Answer In	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	2	Drafted	J L Ortiz
* EXACTA: 1,3,5,6 Box
* TRIFECTA: 1,3,6/1,3,5,6/1,3,4,5,6
COMMENTS: REPO ROCKS won his last by almost 6 lengths and big races are usually followed by another. MR PHIL ran better fractions in his last. CHATEAU rides the high win rate rail and hit the board in 17 of 21 at the distance. OFFICIATING is another to run faster times in his last and upped his late pace.
RACE #6 $92,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:39 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	10	Caironi	J Lezcano
PLACE	3-1	1A	Baby Blythe	J Rosario
SHOW	9-2	3	Lay the Groundwork	F Prat
WILD CARD	6-1	9	Angelinka	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	1	Join the Dots	Rider TBA
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	5	Belacqua	J Castellano
* EXACTA: 10-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/10 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX
RACE #7 $85,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET
BEST BET: #1A SAINT SELBY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	1A	Saint Selby	K Carmouche
PLACE	10-1	2	Prince of Pharoahs	J Lezcano
SHOW	6-1	7	Bronx Bomber	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	3-1	6	Masked Marauder	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Jemography	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	5-2	9	Seven Lilies	D Davis
* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
RACE #8 $700,000 STAKES 1 3/8 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 4:46 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $700,000 MAN O WAR STAKES GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	2	Gufo	J Rosario
PLACE	1-1	3	Yibir	W T Buick
SHOW	9-2	4	Abaan	L Saez
WILD CARD	30-1	6	So High	L A Rodriguez Castro
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	5	Highland Chief	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Easter	F Prat
* EXACTA: 2,3/2,3,4,6
* TRIFECTA: 2,3/2,3,4/2,3,4,6
COMMENTS: GUFO six triple digit speed numbers in his last seven starts. The rest of the field has three combined. YIBIR is undefeated in two US races. He must be careful not to get caught in traffic as a deep closer. ABAAN popped major increases in his pace numbers last out. The concern is that he could bounce but you cannot ignore the improvement. SO HIGH is a flier on the backend for exotics.
RACE #9 $200,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:19 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 PETER PAN STAKES GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Electability	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	3-1	4	We the People	F Prat
SHOW	7-2	1	Set Sail	J Rosario
WILD CARD	4-1	5	Golden Glider	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Western River	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Cooke Creek	M Franco
* EXACTA: 1,2,4/1,2,4,5
* TRIFECTA: 1,2,4/1,2,4/1,2,4,5,6
COMMENTS: ELECTABILITY won his last two and now switches to jockey Irad Ortiz. WE THE PEOPLE was one of the favorites in the Arkansas Derby but failed to fire. He will try and rebound to the form that won his first pair of races with ease. SET SAIL broke his maiden in his second try with similar fractions at 1 mile as at 7 furlongs. GOLDEN GLIDER has been facing tough company along the derby trail.
RACE #10 $150,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:50 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $150,000 BEAUGAY STAKES GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Lemista	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	6-1	4	Plum Ali	M Franco
SHOW	15-1	5	Runaway Rumour	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	1-1	1	Rougir	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Stolen Holiday	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Our Flash Drive	D Davis
* EXACTA: 1,2,4,5 Box
* TRIFECTA: 1,2,4,5 Box
COMMENTS: LEMISTA has been off since last August but 29 furlongs of good works since April 1st say he is ready. PLUM ALI won two in a row and is undefeated in three at the distance. RUNAWAY RUMOUR is a horse for the course with three wins a second and third in five at Belmont. She has one second in four races elsewhere. ROUGIR could be the favorite but his few runs on a firm turf surface resulted in some of her worst performances.
RACE #11 $80,000 ALLOWANCE 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:21 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	3	Masterof the Tunes	J L Ortiz
PLACE	6-1	2	Act of Congress	J Castellano
SHOW	8-1	10	Theodora Grace	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Rigby	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	15	Gallina	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	11	Autumn Glory	D Davis
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/10 BOX, 2/4/10 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | May 14, 2022

May 13, 2022

Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday May 14 | Post Time 10:11 PM Eastern
Mamzelle Stakes | Purse $160,000 | Five Furlongs on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

Contenders:

Mystic Eyes (2) offers us low odds overlay value for a win bet, as well is a great horse to key on our exacta tickets. The reason is although she opens at 3 to 1, the starting favorite Twilight Gleaming (6 to 5) is a bit suspect. I’ll talk about that more later when I talk about Twilight Gleaming. Mystic Eyes has done little wrong in her career, starting with a superb win in hand by nearly five lengths in a turf sprint like this. She was highly regarded enough to enter a stakes in her second start, last summer, and was not disgraced when leading late and settling for second of 11 at the end. Next she was beaten one length after leading from the start in the Grade 3 Matron Stakes on the grass at Belmont, before ending her 2021 season with a win in a stakes on the grass at Belmont. Now she’s a more mature three year old, fresh off a six month layoff, and with better early speed and a better post than Twilight Gleaming. This will enable Ricardo Santana to get Mystic Eyes out on the lead from the start from where she can relax and go all the way.
Boxing Day (4) is the interesting longshot, opening at 15 to 1. She too won a turf sprint in her career debut, one day before Mystic Eyes finished second last summer at Kentucky Downs. She ran poorly in two totally irrelevant turf routes then took three months off. Returning in March and back in a sprint, Boxing Day ran pretty good as she led by a half-length late in the race then settled for second in a field of nine. Although third in her next start on March 24, her most recent, she ran faster, and she made up two and one-half lengths in the late stages. She’s on an improving pattern and although not nearly as likely to win as Mystic Eyes, Boxing Day is more likely to run well than her 15/1 starting odds suggest.
Artos (9) ran second in a turf sprint in her career debut last April to Ruthin, who is now a stakes winner. Then nearly one year ago this week, Artos broke her maiden in her second career start, here at Churchill Downs on the turf, in a race which she led early, fell back to fourth (three lengths behind the winner) then re-rallied to win. She went to Royal Ascot last June and was NOT disgraced when fourth of 21 in the Queen Mary Stakes, a race in which Twilight Gleaming finished second. Rested for nine months, Artos returned in a stakes at Gulfstream Park at the end of March and although well regarded ran poorly to end up last of nine. Returning to Kentucky, she’s feeling very good as evidenced by a sparkling half-mile workout in 47.4 from the gate 10 days ago, and so if she runs back either of her first two races, particularly the one here at Churchill Downs, she could have a say in the outcome.
Twilight Gleaming (5) opens as the 6 to 5 favorite. She has three wins but then she also has three runner-up finishes, in six starts. She tries hard but last month in the similar Palisades Stakes at Keeneland she got run down in the late stages as the four to five favorite after leading on slow fractions. Considering she’s not going to lead early this time, as Mystic Eyes is faster and has an inside draw, Twilight Gleaming is going to have to pass in the final yards, which is not something she’s done to date.
Win bets:
Mystic Eyes (2) at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.
A smaller win bet can be made on Boxing Day (4) at odds of 6 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Mystic Eyes (2) over Boxing Day (4), Twilight Gleaming (5) and Artos (9).
For a smaller amount, perhaps the $1 minimum, or $2, box Mystic Eyes (2), Boxing Day (4) and Artos (9).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Hotlist - May 14

May 13, 2022

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, May 14, 2022 at Belmont Park
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (6) Devil Boy (B) has been away from the races for almost a year when he had troubled trips in both of his starts at Belmont Park. (7) Ocean’s Reserve (B) had one start last year at Saratoga when he was rank and had to check early in the race. He was well bet in that race and the blinkers come off. (1) Conquist debuted in November when he was third at odds of 4-1. He’ll get first-time Lasix for his return to the track. (5) N Y Anthem started his career at Parx when he finished third at odds of 7-1 and now will face NY-breds.
6^th race [Alw 92000 N1X, 1 mi TURF] – (1A) Baby Blythe (B) was heavily restrained and rank in the Jockey Club Oaks and got stuck out wide on an inside favoring track when last seen in September. (6) Naked On the Beach got back on the turf for Mike Maker and ran her best career race at Aqueduct last month. (3) Lay the Groundwork broke her maiden in February for Chad Brown in a Gulfstream race that was meant for the turf. (10) Caironi was a debut winner last year at Belmont and then was second and fourth in turf stakes in New York. She has been off for the winter.
8^th race [Man o’War (G1), 1 3/8 mi TURF] – (1) Easter (A) had a promising American debut when third in an allowance at Aqueduct after racing in France. Trainer Graham Motion is better with imports like this in their later starts. (3) Yibir won the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) last year and the Eclipse Award for Champion Male Turf horse. This year he has a pair of seconds in Group overseas. He thrived on American turf courses last year. (2) Gufo made his 2022 debut a winning one in the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream Park. He was a Grade 1 winner last year. (4) Abaan was second behind Gufo last time and has the look of an improving turf horse and may be the primary speed in the field.
9^th race [Peter Pan (G3), 1 1/8 mi] – (2) Electability won his last two starts at Aqueduct in a maiden special weight and then an allowance. The Chad Brown barn is red hot at the current meeting winning with 32% of their runners. (1) Set Sail ships to New York from Santa Anita after a seven-length maiden score for Richard Mandella. The fact that he will ship an inexperienced horse like this across the country has to be an endorsement of his talent. (4) We the People won his first two starts at Oaklawn Park and then was washed out before the Arkansas Derby (G1). Keep an eye on this guy in the post parade. (6) Western River is a full brother of Belmont Stakes winner Creator and a recent impressive maiden winner at Oaklawn Park.

Best bets: Devil Boy (1^st); Baby Blythe (6^th). Best value: Easter (8^th); Electability (9^th).
Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 8-10 is all graded stakes

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - May 14

May 13, 2022

Today’s Churchill Downs Hot List races to watch
Saturday, May 14, 2022
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (5) American Hero was third in a claimer and looks best in this starter allowance test. The (1) entry of Cole Spur and Bureau should be the main competition. (2) Summer in Malibu will benefit from a cutback to a sprint. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5.
3rd race – (2) Apache Tears (B) had traffic issues late when second last time and can make amends here. (3) Carmelito should be more competitive on turf. (7) Lesson Learned flopped in his U.S. debut but can rebound here. (1) Purple Dream could be a factor from the rail. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-7.
7th race – (7) Arrobatic debuts on turf for Chad Brown and merits close attention. (2) Red Hot Mama will welcome an inside post and a return to turf. (1) Walkathon exits a nice maiden win and should be a factor. (8) Glenall will appreciate the class relief after running in a graded stakes. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-7-8.
9th race – (5) Twilight Gleaming seems fast enough to handle this field in gate-to-wire fashion. (2) Mystic Eyes looks like the most dangerous rival. (12) Street Tapper should get some consideration despite the layoff. (4) Boxing Day could land a knockout punch here. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5-12
11th race – (8) Porouni (D) was bet down from 8-1 to 5-1 and tired badly after a couple of good efforts. Could perk up with a better try here. (3) Beachfront Bid has a nice closing kick and is the one to fear. (4) Chiromante is a firster from a hot barn who deserves respect. (5) My Lily Mae should be closing fast in the stretch. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5-8.

No.

Letter/Last race

Today’s race

Comment

(2)

Apache Tears

B, 4/21

3 CD

Was a troubled second last time

(8)

Poronui

D, 4/8

11 CD

Can bounce back here

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