Friday 5/27/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

05/27/22, GP, Race 3, 2.14 ET
05/27/22,GP,3,5F [Turf] 00:53:03 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $51,000 (includes up to $7,000 Other Sources). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $75,000. Weight, 120 lbs. Non-winners Of $24,000 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $75,000 (ConditionEligibility). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the Tapeta Course at Five Furlongs) (Rail at 25 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	1	Nerve	8/1	Krigger K	Plesa. Jr. Edward	TSL	231	29.87	1.28/$1
098.3902	3	Trust Daddy	4/1	Maragh R R	O'Dwyer Jeremiah	E	231	29.87	1.28/$1
097.5738	2	Mogalu	5/1	Jaramillo E	Barboza. Jr. Victor	J	231	29.87	1.28/$1
097.3333	6	Creative Kid	8/1	Reyes L	Dobles Elizabeth L.		231	29.87	1.28/$1
096.9828	4	Trikitraki	5/2	Lopez P	Zerpa Gilberto		231	29.87	1.28/$1
094.5690	5	Always Gambling	9/5	Berrios H I	Gonzalez Claudio A.	FWC	231	29.87	1.28/$1

Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 31.25, ROI 1.22/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.6098
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Turf] Race Purse Greater Than $25K

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Santa Anita Park 5 Facts | May 23-30, 2022

May 25, 2022 | By 1/ST BET

Schedule:

Friday-Monday

Carryovers:

$449,348 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

Gold Rush Day // 5 Cal-bred stakes // Saturday

G2 $200,000 Triple Bend // dirt sprinters // Sunday

G3 $100,000 Honeymoon // 3YO filly turfers // Sunday

G3 $100,000 Daytona // turf sprinters // Sunday

G1 $500,000 Hollywood Gold Cup // elder dirt routers // Monday

G1 $400,000 Gamely // distaff turf routers // Monday

G1 $400,000 Shoemaker Mile // turf milers // Monday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Best Speed Track (43%, +$17.20)

Avg. Last 3 Race Class (38%, +$46.20)

Mud Pedigree (30%, +$8.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: George Papaprodromou // 6: 3-1-1 (50%, $1.95 ROI) // 2-2 turf miles

T: Ruben Alvarado // 8-2-2-1 (%, $ ROI) // $8, $13 winners + 9-1 runner-up // 7 of 8 starts turf sprints

T: Phil D’Amato // 16: 4-5-1 (25%, $0.63 ROI) // 2-2 with Ricardo Gonzalez // 6: 3-1-0 with favorites

J: Ricardo Gonzalez // 6: 3-1-0 (50%, $2.17 ROI) // 2-2 with Phil D’Amato // $3, $4, $18 winners

J: Ramon Vazquez // 14: 3-4-1 (21%, $1.48 ROI) // $3, $8, $29 winners all in sprints

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

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Golden Gate Fields 5 Facts | May 23-30, 2022

May 24, 2022 | By 1/ST BET

Schedule:

Friday-Monday

Carryovers:

$9,304 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot (Friday)

Feature Race(s):

$75,000 Alcatraz // turf milers // Sunday

$100,000 All American // main track milers // Monday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Lifetime Earnings (38%, +$57.20)

Best Speed Track (33%, +$10.20)

Avg. Best 2 of 3 Speed (32%, -$5.20)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

T: Felix Rondan // 4: 3-0-0 (75%, $4.83 ROI) // $4, $16, $17 winners // 2-2 claiming miles on Tapeta

T: Steve Miyadi // 2: 2-0-0 (100%, $7.95 ROI) // $9, $22 winners in claiming main track sprints

T: Ed Moger Jr. // 5: 2-0-0 (40%, $3.18 ROI) // $6, $25 winners both with Amador Silvio Ruiz

J: Santos Rivera // 12: 5-0-1 (42%, $2.25 ROI) // 3-4 with Felix Rondan // $4, $6, $9, $16, $17 wins

J: Assael Espinoza // 17: 4-4-0 (24%, $0.79 ROI) // 6: 2-3-0 with favorites // $2, $5, $6, $12 wins

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

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Today’s Free Horse Picks – Friday, May 27th 2022
By Reggie Garrett

We are covering 7 tracks on Friday, May 27th, 2022. Reggie Garrett has his picks for each race at Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita Park, Belmont Park and more. Good luck and enjoy!


Belmont Park – 1:00 ET
Race 1: 5 Please Baby
Race 2: 4 Full Court Press
Race 3: 1 Devilly
Race 4: 5 Chloe Rose
Race 5: 8 Social Whirl
Race 6: 3 Gringotts
Race 7: 9 Juulstone
Race 8: 3 Fouette
Race 9: 12 Road to Remember


Churchill Downs – 12:45 PT
Race 1: 2 Justafever
Race 2: 1 Soul Streit
Race 3: 5 Appalachianheights
Race 4: 6 Princedreamcess
Race 5: 2 El Socio
Race 6: 5 Win With Pride
Race 7: 3 Catch Magic
Race 8: 1 Violenza
Race 9: 6 Bear Oak


Golden Gate Fields – 1:45 PT
Race 1: 4 Don’t Tell Hydee
Race 2: 3 Tiz a Tiger
Race 3: 5 Mybluebell
Race 4: 7 Yvonne’s Miss
Race 5: 1 Full of Luck
Race 6: 2 Creative Romance
Race 7: 5 Christmas Diamond
Race 8: 4 Fantastic Secret


Gulfstream Park – 1:05 ET
Race 1: 6 Readyseekgo
Race 2: 4 Conrado
Race 3: 3 Trust Daddy
Race 4: 1 Reddington
Race 5: 8 Catching Fish
Race 6: 7 Alizee
Race 7: 3 Cindy’s Song
Race 8: 5 Ampersand
Race 9: 2 Awesome Pudding


Pimlico – 12:40 ET
Race 1: 12 Winter Princess
Race 2: 5 I’m Not Slow
Race 3: 5 Queen Macha
Race 4: 3 Sweet Talia
Race 5: 9 Divine Proportion
Race 6: 1 Railmaster
Race 7: 3 Bandits Warrior
Race 8: 8 Jimmy the Kid


Santa Anita Park – 1:00 PT
Race 1: 5 Albayaader
Race 2: 1 Ardis
Race 3: 6 On Purpose
Race 4: 1 Superman Shaq
Race 5: 3 Frontier Market
Race 6: 5 Divine Armor
Race 7: 2 She Loves Karaoke
Race 8: 5 Vanisky
Race 9: 2 Ghostem


Woodbine – 4:50 ET
Race 1: 2 Ultimate Answer
Race 2: 2 Late Surge
Race 3: 1 Keep It Neat
Race 4: 8 Ol’ Blondie
Race 5: 7 Moon Over Montana
Race 6: 5 Righteous Robbie
Race 7: 7 Chanceworthtaking

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Belmont Park Picks: Trying to beat Pletcher's Forest Caraway on May 27
By J.N. Campbell


Belmont Park Picks - Friday, May 27, 2022

Race 1: 2-5-1-4
Race 2: 4-6-5-1/1A
Race 3: 5-6-2-1
Race 4: 5-1/1A-7-3
Race 5: 8-4-2-6
Race 6: 4-7-5-3
Race 7: 9-2-1-6
Race 8: 6-7-5-2
Race 9: 7-12-2-8
**Most Likely: Chloe Rose #5 (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Full Court Press #4 (Race 2)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 4: Chloe Rose #5, 4/1):

I can see it as clear as the day is long … Gustavo Rodriguez will be visiting the winner’s circle with this filly by Twirling Candy. It is about time for her to assert her sprinting authority on the dirt because she has had ample opportunities. At the end of April, just after Belmont opened, she was 2nd at this level with Jose Lezcano aboard. I think some traffic troubles hampered her progress, and that allowed To a T to get home. If she can steer clear of such obstacles on this sandy highway, then she has a great shot. I am sure others will impact her price by putting her on top … 4/1 sounds like a dream.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #5



Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 2: Full Court Press #4, 9/2):

I know that 9/2 on the M/L does not necessarily speak to an “off-the-pace” play … but hang on … Based on who else is drawn-in (Pletcher's Glory Road #5 and Rodriguez's Its All Relevant #6), I think the odds for this Horacio De Paz entry will expand for the better. Bred by Winchell, the colt by Dialed In ships from Laurel after competing in ALLW Co. Manny Franco rode him at Aqueduct back in late March, and even though he was 3rd, it was still a solid performance. I think his class will shine through, dropping down to this level. Cutting back from routing, to 7 furlongs, cannot hurt either. My line is 5/1 or higher … if he is in that range, then it is time to load up.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #4 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Dirt, 6F, OC62.5kn2x, F&M 3+):

If you are looking for a speed duel on this Friday, then maybe heading to Belmont, Race 8 is an idea. This high-end OC for older females brings together a lucky 7. Out of these, I am sure bettors will be swayed to back the Phoenix Thoroughbreds-owned filly by Bodemeister … now trained by Todd Pletcher. Forest Caraway #5 does look formidable, especially considering she took on tough 3-yr-old company last year. That included the likes of Princess Noor, Kalypso, Private Mission, and Livingmybestlife … among others. Coming back to the track after a lengthy layoff, she makes the switch from Peter Miller’s now-defunct outfit, and moves over to the HOF conditioner. How will she run? Well, that’s a bit of an unknown … I have another entry to back that looks much more inviting when it comes to her price. Fernando Abreu is just getting started during this Belmont Meet, and I think Royal Meghan #6 has what it takes to succeed. She is a 5-yr-old mare by Uncaptured, and is part-owned by Abreu. Her classy form speaks for itself, and even though she only has 3 wins in 22 starts, that is utterly meaningless. She is more consistent at hitting-the-board, and once again will get the services of one of America’s hottest jocks, Jose Ortiz. She is fit, and ready to do battle, if she can be forwardly placed … One other runner that I am interested in using, is the former member of Ray Handal’s barn, Rossa Veloce #7. She was claimed by the Morey Barn at the end of the AQU Meet. The Girolamo filly has her own attributes, and it will be interesting to she how she competes with Kendrick Carmouche in the irons. Since she jumped from state breds into the bowels of open company, I would not be surprised if she excels as she goes. One to include … Here is the bet for Belmont!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Cold, 6/7/5

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Belmont Park Picks - Friday, May 27, 2022

Race 1: 2-5-1-4
Race 2: 4-6-5-1/1A
Race 3: 5-6-2-1
Race 4: 5-1/1A-7-3
Race 5: 8-4-2-6
Race 6: 4-7-5-3
Race 7: 9-2-1-6
Race 8: 6-7-5-2
Race 9: 7-12-2-8
**Most Likely: Chloe Rose #5 (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Full Court Press #4 (Race 2)**

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Charles Town Picks - Friday, May 27, 2022

Race 1: 4-1-5-6
Race 2: 3-6-2-1
Race 3: 4-1-5-7
Race 4: 3-6-2-1
Race 5: 2-8-5-7
Race 6: 2-6-7-1
Race 7: 3-6-5-2
Race 8: 5-7-3-2
**Most Likely Winner: Bearkontie #3 (Race 2)**
**Best Value: Tiz Auction Time #5 (Race 8)**

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Churchill Downs Picks - Friday, May 27, 2022

Race 1: 3-2-6-4
Race 2: 5-1-3-8
Race 3: 4-2-6-1/1A
Race 4: 6-8-4-5
Race 5: 10-6-2-9
Race 6: 5-8-6-2
Race 7: 8-3-4-10
Race 8: 3-1-2-4
Race 9: 10-6-2-4
**Most Likely: Fieldstone #10 (Race 5)**
**Best Value: Higher Authority #10 (Race 9)**

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Gulfstream Park Picks - Friday, May 27, 2022

Race 1: 9-6-4-3
Race 2: 4-5-1-6
Race 3: 5-4-3-1
Race 4: 4-1-6-2
Race 5: 8-6-5-12
Race 6: 2-7-1-6
Race 7: 10-3-7-4
Race 8: 2-5-4-1
Race 9: 4-7-2-10
**Most Likely Winner: Queen Calypso #2 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Mighty Frosted #9 (Race 1)**

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Lone Star Park Picks - Friday, May 27, 2022

Race 1: 2-9-6-4
Race 2: 6-4-3-7
Race 3: 8-5-9-4
Race 4: 6-3-8-2
Race 5: 2-4-3-1
Race 6: 1-5-2-6
Race 7: 7-2-6-4
Race 8: 9-5-1-3
**Most Likely: Raise The Purses #1 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Venus Island #6 (Race 2)**

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Penn National Picks - Friday, May 27, 2022

Race 1: 4-5-2-1
Race 2: 6-2-4-1
Race 3: 3-4-2-1
Race 4: 1-6-4-3
Race 5: 2-4-1-5
Race 6: 4-1-3-5
Race 7: 4-5-2-1
Race 8: 2-4-1-5
**Most Likely Winner: Katesaluckygirl #4 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Banking On Biz #4 (Race 6)**

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Pimlico Race Course Picks - Friday, May 27, 2022

Race 1: 4-12-3-5
Race 2: 5-6-3-2
Race 3: 7-5-9-11
Race 4: 1-3-5-8
Race 5: 2-5-9-1
Race 6: 2-9-4-5
Race 7: 1-5-2-9
Race 8: 2-6-8-1
**Most Likely: Factor In #4 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Snow Candy #2 (Race 8)**

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Belmont Horses in Focus for Friday, May 27
Posted on May 26, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 3: DREAM FLY (#3)

Morning line favorite #6 Bali Belle was supposed to have broken her maiden already. Christophe Clement has given her every chance, finding a soft spot at Delaware where she was odds-on, before she lost twice at relatively short prices in Florida this winter. She just lacks some late punch in her route races, which is probably why Clement is trying a sprint experiment now. Her pedigree isn’t exactly screaming shorter, but Clement is 10 for 26 (38%, $2.55 ROI) with maidens going from routes to sprints on turf at Belmont over 5 years. I slightly prefer her to the other runner from this barn. However, there are a couple of more intriguing runners coming off layoffs. #5 Frosted Oats took money in all three starts last year, which isn’t a big surprise considering her MyRacehorse ownership. She ran her best race second time out on grass, making the first move into a pretty honest pace before getting run down by a pair of talented Chad Brown runners. She proved that she could indeed sprint in her 2-year-old finale, which begs the natural question: Would she in fact be best as a turf sprinter? However, she has to be ready to fire off the bench, and Bill Mott is just 1 for 18 (5%, $0.18 ROI) off 180+ day layoffs in turf sprints over 5 years. My top pick is #3 Dream Fly, who also returns from a layoff. However, her trainer Wesley Ward is 24 for 84 (29%, $2.15 ROI) with the exact same set of parameters mentioned above for Mott. Dream Fly was heavily backed and disappointing in both starts early in her 2-year-old season. She obviously has to do better with the switch to grass, but this filly does have turf pedigree. She’s by 12% turf sprint sire American Pharoah out of a dam who is a half-sister to G2-winning turf sprinter Bound for Nowhere (8 for 18, $1.1 million). If she’s gotten over the gate issues she displayed as a youngster, we should see an improved performance here.

RACE 7: GIRAMONTE (#5)

#3 Cousin Andrew is arguably the horse to beat as he wheels back in just 8 days and switches back to turf. However, this horse was once an effective dirt performer and his lack of effort here last week has to be of some concern. He did show minor improvement switching to turf at the end of last season, but he benefited from fast paces in both of those races. It’s unclear how the pace of this affair will play out, but I didn’t feel particularly drawn to this gelding at a short price. Wesley Ward is always dangerous in turf sprints, and his #6 Blame the Booze has to be considered a player. He started out his career on dirt, but he proved he could handle grass last August at Ellis Park. The turnback should work for him, and Ward has great stats off layoffs. #2 Ginnsu Warrior is also mildly intriguing on the turnback after trying a tougher field routing on turf last time. He’s a stout, robustly built gelding who may appreciate this shorter trip. Yet my top pick is #5 Giramonte. It took this gelding a while to break his maiden last year, but he ran well in most of his turf sprint efforts since getting claimed by Leah Gyarmati over the summer. He actually finished ahead of King Moonracer on Aug. 14 just prior to getting his diploma. He only made one start against winners on grass last fall and it was a total disaster. He broke a step slowly and was in trouble right from the start, as he got very rank racing in traffic, fighting his rider severely for the first three furlongs before calling it quits. He’s obviously better than that, and I think he can rebound coming off the layoff.

RACE 8: ROSSA VELOCE (#7)

This N2X allowance optional claimer features the East Coast debut of Grade 1 placed #5 Forest Caraway. This well-bred daughter of Bodemeister is a half-sister to popular NY-breds Holiday Disguise and Midnight Disguise. She began her career in California with Peter Miller, finishing second to the once highly regarded Princess Noor in the Del Mar Debutante. She looked like she had really taken a step forward when she returned from a layoff last August. However, she wasn’t able to back up that impressive return, losing her next two starts at short prices. Now she returns for Todd Pletcher with Miller on hiatus from training. Pletcher is 12 for 44 (27%, $1.43 ROI) first off a trainer switch in dirt sprints over 5 years. However, the barn is off to a slow start at this meet and she figures to take plenty of money. They all could have #3 Fouette to catch. It’s interesting to see this filly transferred to Linda Rice, who once had great success with Lady Sheila Stable, campaigning champion La Verdad among others. Yet she hasn’t sent out a runner for this owner in over a year. Fouette began her career with Steve Asmussen and showed some precocity. She’s always had trouble sustaining her speed, but looks pretty loose on the front end here, which makes her dangerous. I’m trying to beat both of these fillies with #7 Rossa Veloce. She already won at this level two back when racing for the $62,500 tag, so she’s still eligible to compete for the allowance condition. This NY-bred filly wasn’t beating much that day, but she did run better than it appears last time, chasing wide against a rail bias. She’s produced a string of solid efforts despite being ridden by low-profile riders for the better part of the last year. Now she’s getting a significant upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche while also making her first start off the claim for William Morey. The barn doesn’t have great stats with that move, but has sent out two live runners so far at this meet.

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Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Friday, May 27

By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

Sportsmail's racing expert Robin Goodfellow delivers his tips for Friday's meetings at Chepstow, Haydock, Brighton, Pontefract and Stratford.

CHEPSTOW

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.20 Attache

1.55 Tarrabb

2.30 Monsieur Fantaisie

3.05 Airshow

3.40 Way Of Life

4.15 King Of Ice

4.50 Sea On Time

5.25 Amalfi Bay

GIMCRACK

1.20 Life’s A Beach

1.55 Tarrabb (nb)

2.30 Hope Probe

3.05 Airshow

3.40 Dickens

4.15 Ajero

4.50 Balhambar

5.25 Amalfi Bay



HAYDOCK

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

6.25 Eclipse De Lunar

6.55 Our Jester

7.25 One World

7.55 Lil Guff

8.25 Manigordo

8.55 Outsmart

GIMCRACK

6.25 Study The Stars

6.55 Hello Jumeirah

7.25 Thunder Cat

7.55 Noya

8.25 Hail Sezer

8.55 Mambo Beat

Newmarket – 8.55 True Accolade (nap)


BRIGHTON

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.00 Jungle Fever

1.35 Giselles Izzy

2.10 Batchelor Boy

2.45 Rivas Rob Roy

3.20 Junoesque

3.55 Poetic Force

4.25 Otago

GIMCRACK

1.00 Lumacho

1.35 Jackmeister Rudi

2.10 The Lamplighter

2.45 Jeremiah Johnson

3.20 Junoesque

3.55 Covert Mission

4.25 Cool Vixen



PONTEFRACT

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

6.30 Carnival Zain

7.00 Close Quarters

7.30 Breege

8.00 Myboymax

8.30 Fylde Coast

9.00 Ventura Express

GIMCRACK

6.30 Frog And Toad

7.00 Mas Poder

7.30 Breege (nap)

8.00 Spantik

8.30 Cognocenti

9.00 Ventura Express

Northerner – 7.00 Close Quarters (nap); 8.00 Spantik (nb).


STRATFORD

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

5.35 Azzuri

6.05 Caid Du Berlais

6.35 Go Go Geronimo

7.05 Vaucelet

7.35 Cat Tiger

8.05 Feuille De Lune

8.40 Tufton Avenue

GIMCRACK

5.35 Azzuri

6.05 Caid Du Berlais

6.35 Ask D’Man

7.05 Bob And Co

7.35 Cat Tiger

8.05 Spanish Jump

8.40 Patanita