Monday 5/30/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 07:39 AM

Monday’s games

National League
Milwaukee (30-18) @ Cubs (19-27)
— Ashby is 0-1, 5.30 in four starts.
— Brewers are 3-1 in his starts.
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
— He is 1-1, 6.14 in four games (2 starts) vs Chicago.

— bullpen game

— Brewers are 26-13 in their last 39 games.
— Milwaukee is 16-12 on road.
— under 8-4 last dozen games
— scored run in first inning: 15-48
— record in first 5 innings: 21-18-9

— Smyly is 1-5, 5.70 in his last six starts.
— Cubs are 3-5 in his starts.
— under 7-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-8
— record in first 5 innings: 3-5
— He is 1-0, 1.50 in one start vs Milwaukee.

— bullpen game

— Cubs are 4-3 in their last seven games.
— Cubs are 7-15 at home.
— over 7-2 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 19-46
— record in first 5 innings: 19-22-5

San Diego (30-17) @ St Louis (26-21)
— Martinez is 2-0, 4.29 in his last four starts.
— San Diego is 4-3 in his starts.
— under 5-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-7
— record in first 5 innings: 2-5
— He is 0-0, 6.23 in one start vs St Louis.

— Padres are 25-12 in their last 37 games.
— San Diego is 17-7 on road.
— under 9-2-1 last dozen games.
— scored run in first inning: 13-47
— record in first 5 innings: 26-14-7

— Naughton allowed 3 runs in 3.1 IP in his one ‘22 start.
— Cardinals are 0-1 in his starts.
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1
— He is 0-0, 1.93 in two games (1 start) vs San Diego.

— Cardinals won six of their last nine games.
— St Louis is 13-11 at home.
— over 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 18-47
— record in first 5 innings: 23-19-5

San Francisco (25-21) @ Philadelphia (21-27)
— Webb is 4-0, 4.04 in his last six starts.
— Giants are 7-2 in his starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 5-9
— record in first 5 innings: 8-1
— He is 0-0, 9.00 in one start (4 IP) vs Philly.

— Giants lost seven of last ten games.
— San Francisco is 12-10 on road.
— over 20-9 last 29
— scored run in first inning: 9-46
— record in first 5 innings: 24-17-5

— Gibson is 0-1, 6.27 in his last three starts.
— Phillies are 5-4 in his starts
— under 5-4
— allowed run in first inning: 1-9
— record in first 5 innings: 3-6
— He is 0-1, 4.24 in three starts vs San Francisco.

— Phillies lost 10 of their last 14 games.
— Philly is 11-13 at home.
— seven of last nine games over
— scored run in first inning: 14-48
— record in first 5 innings: 18-24-6

Miami (19-26) @ Colorado (21-26)
— Lopez is 1-1, 2.88 in his last four starts.
— Marlins are 5-4 in his starts.
— under 5-4
— allowed run in first inning: 4-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-2-3
— He is 2-0, 3.38 in two starts vs Colorado.

— Miami lost 18 of last 25 games.
— Marlins are 9-14 on road
— under 5-1 last six road games.
— scored run in first inning: 9-45
— record in first 5 innings: 16-21-8

— Feltner is 0-1, 5.40 in two starts.
— Rockies are 0-2 in his starts.
— over 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Miami.

— Colorado lost 16 of last 22 games.
— Rockies are 14-11 at home.
— over 4-1 last five games.
— scored run in first inning: 14-47
— record in first 5 innings: 16-25-6

Washington (18-31) @ NY Mets (32-17)
— Fedde is 2-1, 1.93 in his last five starts.
— Washington is 5-4 in his starts.
— under 4-3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4-1
— He is 0-3, 5.04 in nine starts vs New York.

— Washington is 9-15 in its last 24 games.
— Nationals are 9-13 on road.
— over 6-2 last eight games.
— scored run in first inning: 20-49
— record in first 5 innings: 17-28-4

— Peterson is 2-0, 3.00 in his four starts.
— Mets are 4-0 in his starts
— over 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-0-2
— He is 2-0, 1.08 in three starts vs Washington.

— Mets are 21-12 in their last 33 games.
— Mets are 16-8 at home.
— over 7-1 last eight games.
— scored run in first inning: 20-49
— record in first 5 innings: 28-12-9

Atlanta (23-25) @ Arizona (23-26)
— bullpen game

— Braves are 6-4 in their last ten games.
— Atlanta is 9-11 on road.
— over 21-11-1 last 33 games
— scored run in first inning: 11-48
— record in first 5 innings: 22-21-5

— Gallen is 3-0, 2.23 in eight starts.
— Arizona is 6-2 in his starts.
— under 5-3
— allowed run in first inning: 0-8
— record in first 5 innings: 4-0-4
— He is 1-0, 0.00 in one start (7 IP) vs Atlanta.

— Diamondbacks lost their last four games.
— Arizona is 12-15 at home.
— under 3-0 last three games
— scored run in first inning: 13-49
— record in first 5 innings: 17-18-14

Pittsburgh (19-27) @ Los Angeles (33-14)
— Thompson is 1-1, 2.37 in his last four starts.
— Pirates are 3-5 in his starts
— over 4-2 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 4-8
— record in first 5 innings: 3-5
— He hasn’t pitched against the Dodgers.

— Pirates are 7-10 in their last seventeen games.
— Pittsburgh is 8-13 on the road.
— under 9-2-3 last fourteen games
— scored run in first inning: 9-46
— record in first 5 innings: 14-25-7

— Buehler is 5-0, 2.68 in his last six starts.
— Dodgers are 7-2 in his starts.
— over 3-1-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 8-1
— He is 2-0, 0.69 in two starts vs Pittsburgh.

— Dodgers won 13 of last 15 games.
— Los Angeles is 15-5 at home.
— under 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 18-47
— record in first 5 innings: 30-10-7

American League
Minnesota (28-19) @ Detroit (16-29)
— Bundy is 3-2, 3.21 in seven starts.
— Minnesota is 3-4 in his starts.
— under 3-3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 4-3
— He is 0-2, 4.08 in five starts vs Detroit.

— Minnesota won 11 of last 16 games.
— Twins are 12-8 on road.
— over 8-3 last eleven games
— scored run in first inning: 15-48
— record in first 5 innings: 26-14-8

— Brieske is 0-4, 5.34 in six starts.
— Detroit is 1-5 in his starts.
— under 4-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 4-6
— record in first 5 innings: 0-5-1
— He is 0-1, 4.50 in one start vs Minnesota.

— Tigers lost six of last ten games.
— Detroit is 11-14 at home.
— under 29-13-1 last 43 games.
— scored run in first inning: 6-46
— record in first 5 innings: 12-27-7

Houston (30-18) @ A’s (20-30)
— Valdez is 3-0, 2.08 in his last three starts.
— Astros are 5-4 in his starts.
— under 6-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-3-2
— He is 0-2, 4.08 in six games (4 starts) vs Oakland.

— Astros are 6-4 in their last ten games.
— Houston is 16-12 on road.
— under 26-6 last 32 games
— scored run in first inning: 12-48
— record in first 5 innings: 29-15-4

— Blackburn is 2-0, 1.54 in his last four starts.
— A’s are 8-1 in his starts.
— under 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 4-9
— record in first 5 innings: 8-1
— He is 0-2, 13.50 in four games (3 starts) vs Houston.

— A’s are 6-11 in their last 17 games.
— Oakland is 7-17 at home.
— over 3-0 last three games
— scored run in first inning: 12-50
— record in first 5 innings: 17-26-7

Kansas City (16-30) @ Cleveland (19-24)
— Heasley is 0-2, 4.73 in three starts.
— Royals are 0-3 in his starts
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Cleveland.

— Kansas City is 8-20 in its last 28 games.
— Royals are 8-15 on road.
— over 8-2 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 11-46
— record in first 5 innings: 14-24-8

— Plesac is 0-3, 9.12 in his last five starts.
— Cleveland is 2-6 in his starts.
— over 6-0 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 3-8
— record in first 5 innings: 1-4-3
— He is 6-0, 2.37 in ten starts vs Kansas City.

— Guardians are 4-10 in their last 14 games.
— Cleveland is 8-8 at home.
— under 7-2 last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 11-43
— record in first 5 innings: 11-19-13

Baltimore (20-29) @ Boston (23-25)
— Wells is 0-2, 5.27 in his last three starts.
— Orioles are 2-7 in his starts.
— under 7-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 1-7-1
— He is 0-0, 4.50 in five relief stints (8 IP) vs Boston.

— Orioles are 6-5 in their last eleven games.
— Baltimore is 8-18 on road.
— over 9-5 last fourteen games.
— scored run in first inning: 4-49
— record in first 5 innings: 11-27-11

— Hill is 1-1, 6.92 in his last three starts
— Red Sox are 4-4 in his starts.
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 2-8
— record in first 5 innings: 2-4-2
— He is 3-0, 2.00 in 16 games (6 starts) vs Baltimore.

— Red Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 games.
— Boston is 12-12 at home.
— over 9-4 last thirteen games.
— scored run in first inning: 14-48
— record in first 5 innings: 20-16-12

Tampa Bay (28-19) @ Texas (22-24)
— Rasmussen is 5-0, 1.71 in his last six starts.
— Rays are 8-1 in his starts.
— over 4-0-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 0-9
— record in first 5 innings: 8-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Texas.

— Tampa Bay is 7-4 in its last eleven games.
— Rays are 11-8 on road.
— over 10-5-1 last sixteen games
— scored run in first inning: 16-47
— record in first 5 innings: 23-13-11

— Otto is 1-1, 2.45 in his last two starts.
— Rangers are 3-3 in his starts.
— under 3-3
— allowed run in first inning: 4-6
— record in first 5 innings: 2-4
— He hasn’t pitched against Tampa Bay.

— Rangers won four of last five games.
— Texas is 10-12 at home.
— under 19-12-2 last 33 games
— scored run in first inning: 12-46
— record in first 5 innings: 13-21-12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 09:31 AM

Belmont Park Picks: Big Apple Showcase on Memorial Day
By J.N. Campbell

Belmont Park Picks - Memorial Day, May 30, 2022

Race 1: 5-2-1-4
Race 2: 6-2-3-1
Race 3: 4-8-1-2
Race 4: 8-4-7-1
Race 5: 7-3-6-9
Race 6: 2-7-4-3
Race 7: 4-2-3-1
Race 8: 8-2-4-5
Race 9: 5-8-7-2
Race 10: 11-6-3-9
**Most Likely: Maiden Beauty #2 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Hot Rod Rumble #8 (Race 8)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 6: Maiden Beauty #2, 9/2):

There is no question that both Bank Sting #4 and Make Mischief #7 are going to be 1-2 on the tote come Monday, but I still like the Falcone Barn’s mare by Revolutionary. A 6-yr-old, she has 37 lifetime starts to her credit, and the number is still pointing upwards. She has not raced since the AQU Meet in April, but I think the rest will do her some good. Regular rider Kendrick Carmouche is in the irons once again. If she can break well from that inside post, then she might have a chance to control the fractions. There is definitely some speed drawn-in here … so we will see how it all shakes out.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #2

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Hot Rod Rumble #8, 6/1):

The “stocked” Belmont card on Memorial Day has some superb betting options. None looks better than this Steve Asmussen-trained gelding by Midnight Storm. The HOF conditioner once again pairs with Joel Rosario, and I like their chances. Owned by Rockingham Ranch, the 3-yr-old has all the momentum going right now. He won against maiden company at Aqueduct, and then followed that up with a score against state bred ALLW-types. His best asset is clearly frontend ability, and if he can get to the lead, then that could prove an effective tactic. Rosario has a knack for situations like these, and I am hoping that his mount’s odds can hover somewhere around 6/1.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #8 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 9: Turf, 1 1/16th, Kingston S. $125k, 4+):

One of a quad of “Non-G” races on Memorial Day … I am keen to bet this one! We will head to the Inner Turf at Belmont Park, and it promises to be a good match. A pair of uncoupled Mike Maker runners will be headed to the post, and I am sure that Jose Ortiz’s mount will take money. Somelikeitbrown #7 has more than just a bit of form, especially since ’20, he has matched up against the likes of Raging Bull, Largent, In Love, and Pixelate. I am going to try and beat him, and in actuality, I like his stablemate, Cross Border #5, even more than him. CB is a classic Maker-type … super-talented, but not always that consistent. The ridgling by English Channel has his own back class. He just needs the right kind of trip during the latter 1/3 of any given race. If he gets shuffled too far back, then he has virtually no chance to make up that much ground. What is particularly interesting about his presence at Belmont is he normally takes on much deeper routes. It will be interesting to see how the aggressive riding of Luis Saez plays a factor. Using both of these runners seems like a plan, but I also want to include in some way the colt by War Dancer, trained by the venerable Barclay Tagg. Step Dancer #8 is another entry that is cutting back when it comes to distance. The last time we saw him was here at Belmont in the $1 million Jockey Club Invite S. last September. With Dylan Davis, plus a lengthy layoff, it will be intriguing to see what kind of price he will be before this one goes off. Davis continues to ride with a ton of confidence on either surface, so I would not count him out. Here is the wager that I particularly fancy … and yes, I am leaving out both of the Clement runners …

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Wheel, 5 w 7/8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 09:32 AM

Horses in Focus at Belmont Park for Monday, May 30, 2022
David Aragona

RACE 4: WHISTLER’S HONOR (#2)

This New York-bred maiden special weight event seems totally wide open. I don’t want to settle for the obvious horses who will take money like #4 Nikostratos and #7 Mr. Connecticut. The former ran fine last year as a 2-year-old, but he got pretty good trips and there’s no guarantee that he’ll necessarily build on that form in his return from a layoff. Mr. Connecticut comes in with the best set of speed figures, but he really should have broken his maiden by now, and is usually compromised by his lack of early speed. I actually think the horse to beat is #1 Biondi. There’s isn’t a ton of pace in this race, and he figures to work out a good trip from this advantageous inside draw. He set an honest pace at Aqueduct last time and still held off Mr. Connecticut for second. He’s also getting a massive rider upgrade to Luis Saez for his second start off the layoff. However, there are also a couple of second-time starters who intrigue me. One of those is #6 Front Line Dancer, who ran better than his fifth-place result would indicate on debut. He was beaten by both Nikostratos and Biondi that day, but he was steadied in the early going and proceeded to race wide around both turns before finishing with good interest. He has a right to do better here as he returns with blinkers added. My top pick is #2 Whistler’s Honor. This colt debuted going 6 furlongs last fall, but ran like one that wants to travel much farther than that. He broke slowly and lagged at the back of the pack early before unleashing a strong rally through the lane. He passed only about half the field by the time they hit the wire, but he was moving quickest of all and quickly ran by the leaders on the gallop out. This son of Tonalist now gets to stretch out and should relish the added ground. Jorge Abreu doesn’t have the best stats off layoffs and the barn is a bit cold right now. Still, I think he’s interesting at a square price.

RACE 8: TIN PAN ALLEY (#4)

Morning line favorite #2 Best Idea looked pretty promising in his debut victory over the winter, so it was surprising when he regressed so dramatically in the Damon Runyon. He did get off to a slow start but just never appeared to be fully engaged that day. The good news is that he was back in the bridle on the stretch-out last time, as he stalked effectively and traveled well into the race. It’s not a great sign that the horse who beat him, Anejo, returned to lose at a short price on Sunday. That said, I don’t mind the turnback for Best Idea and he still has upside in just his fourth start. One of his main rivals appears to be #9 Who Hoo Thats Me. This colt’s best form obviously puts him right there. He showed that he was a capable sprinter when he broke his maiden here last September, and followed that up with the best performance of his career when third in the Sleepy Hollow behind a couple of talented rivals. I won’t fault him for failing to show up in the Remsen, as he probably doesn’t want to go that far. He found the cutback to 6 furlongs to be a little sharp for him in the return last time, but he still made a strong late run to get up for second. Now he gets more ground to work with and should get some pace up front. My top pick is #4 Tin Pan Alley. This Chad Brown trainee doesn’t come in with the fastest speed figures, but he certainly has the potential to take another step forward. He was probably best in his career debut last summer, making a big middle move on the turn after breaking slowly, just unable to reel in today’s rival Rotknee. He was off for a long time after that, but showed no rust coming off the layoff. He displayed improved tactical speed and beat a decent field to break his maiden, going away at the end like an extra half-furlong will be no issue. He’s trained well since then, his last two workouts matching G3 Bay Shore runner-up Highly Respected (2-1-1-0, 90 Beyer). Chad Brown is also 6 for 19 (32%, $2.42 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in New York-bred dirt races over the past 5 years.

RACE 9: SANCTUARY CITY (#6)

#7 Somelikeithotbrown hasn’t run against New York-breds that often during his career, but he’s achieved stakes success the last two times that he’s ventured into statebred company, taking the last two editions of the Mohawk in the fall. He’ll try to kick off his 6-year-old campaign here with a victory against similar company in this Kingston. However, the layoff is of some concern. He’s not a horse that has ever run particularly well coming off a break like this, and Mike Maker runners typically do better with a start or two under their belts. He should play out as the controlling speed, but I wasn’t inclined to just hand this race to him. Main rival #2 City Man looked to be in great form when he returned two back in the Danger’s Hour at Aqueduct, displaying an impressive turn of foot to draw clear of that field before getting geared down late. I won’t hold his Fort Marcy loss against him, as that race was contested over a course that should have been rated “heavy.” He’s likely to do better here and he has the tactical speed to not be overly compromised by a slow pace. Yet I want to go for a bigger-priced upset with #6 Sanctuary City. This overachiever always puts in an honest effort and has subtly been in fantastic form over the past year or so. He just missed to Somelikeithotbrown at odds of 24-1 in the Mohawk last year despite not getting much help up front. He’s arguably improved out of that race, closing well behind City Man two back before holding his own against open company in a race that is likely too far for him. I love the cutback to 1 1/16 miles, and he’s reunited with Kendrick Carmouche, who was aboard for his three-race winning streak about a year ago.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 09:32 AM

Belmont Park Picks - Memorial Day, May 30, 2022

Race 1: 5-2-1-4
Race 2: 6-2-3-1
Race 3: 4-8-1-2
Race 4: 8-4-7-1
Race 5: 7-3-6-9
Race 6: 2-7-4-3
Race 7: 4-2-3-1
Race 8: 8-2-4-5
Race 9: 5-8-7-2
Race 10: 11-6-3-9
**Most Likely: Maiden Beauty #2 (Race 6)**
**Best Value: Hot Rod Rumble #8 (Race 8)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 09:32 AM

Lone Star Park Picks - Memorial Day, May 30, 2022

Race 1: 8-2-4-6
Race 2: 2-6-1-5
Race 3: 1-3-6-5
Race 4: 4-6-1-3
Race 5: 3-1-8-10
Race 6: 7-3-4-8
Race 7: 6-1-4-3
Race 8: 5-6-1-7
Race 9: 1-7-9-4
Race 10: 9-7-8-2
Race 11: 6-3-8-2
Race 12: 2-8-1-6
**Most Likely: Park Avenue #9 (Race 10)**
**Best Value: Got Thunder #6 (Race 11)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 09:33 AM

Santa Anita Park Picks - Memorial Day, May 30, 2022

Race 1: 7-6-2-5
Race 2: 4-1-2-3
Race 3: 2-4-6-5
Race 4: 3-4-2-5
Race 5: 1-2-5-3
Race 6: 5-3-9-6
Race 7: 2-6-8-4
Race 8: 6-1-3-5
Race 9: 5-3-8-7
Race 10: 2-6-7-1
**Most Likely: Canoodling #2 (Race 10)**
**Best Value: Spielberg #3 (Race 4)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 09:33 AM

Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Monday, May 30

By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

Sportsmail's racing expert Robin Goodfellow delivers his tips for Monday's meetings at Ayr, Windsor, Cartmel, Lingfield and Redcar.

Ayr

ROBIN GOODFELLOW GIMCRACK

4.50 Ludo’s Landing 4.50 Debydinks

5.25 Caballero 5.25 Caballero

6.00 Grand Canal 6.00 Bouncing Bobby

6.30 Graces Quest 6.30 Graces Quest

7.00 Tilsitt 7.00 Tommy G

7.30 Impressor 7.30 Rory (nb)

8.05 Blazing Hot 8.05 Yaaser

Redcar

ROBIN GOODFELLOW GIMCRACK

1.25 Great City 1.25 Great City

2.00 Exposed 2.00 Exposed

2.35 Claritudo 2.35 Mister Camacho

3.05 Cotai Star 3.05 Knightswood

3.35 Tilly The Filly 3.35 Tilly The Filly

4.05 Rum Going On 4.05 Bearcardi

4.40 Rocket Rod 4.40 Rocket Rod

5.15 So Grateful 5.15 Point Of Woods

Windsor

ROBIN GOODFELLOW GIMCRACK

5.05 Bear Profit 5.05 Chief White Face

5.40 Raducanu 5.40 Dresden Green

6.10 Spring Bloom (nap) 6.10 Spring Bloom

6.40 Get It 6.40 Get It

7.10 Silver Gunn (nb) 7.10 Silver Gunn

7.40 King Of The Kippax 7.40 King Of The Kippax (nap)

8.15 Eklil 8.15 Adatorio

Cartmel

ROBIN GOODFELLOW GIMCRACK

1.40 Prime Time Lady 1.40 Prime Time Lady

2.10 Thatbeatsbanagher 2.10 Bolsover Bill

2.45 Well Educated 2.45 Well Educated

3.15 Via Dolorosa 3.15 Coup De Pinceau

3.45 Tonto’s Spirit 3.45 Clear The Runway

4.20 Brotherly Company 4.20 Eritage

4.55 Envious Editor 4.55 Envious Editor

5.30 Liffeydale Dreamer 5.30 Jessiemac

Lingfield

ROBIN GOODFELLOW GIMCRACK

1.15 The Whipmaster 1.15 Chief Of Staff

1.50 Simply Sondheim 1.50 Simply Sondheim

2.25 Musical Romance 2.25 Lyrical Lady

2.55 Sentimentality 2.55 Miska

3.25 Juan Les Pins 3.25 Essme

3.55 Pablo Del Pueblo 3.55 Agapanther

4.30 Dalby Forest 4.30 Hattie C

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 09:33 AM

2022 Memorial Day Spot Plays for Belmont Park
John Mucciolo

A handful of black-type races for Empire State-bred runners will highlight a fine card at Belmont Park on Monday.
Race 2 – Mount Vernon S.

Christophe Clement’s #6 Classic Lady (5-2) missed by a nose in the 2020 edition of this race off a layoff, and the seven-year-old will try to go one better in this affair. Daughter of Jimmy Creed has compiled a 6-3-2-1 mark on the course in her career, and the dark bay gets a very good post slot outside of the compact cast. Joel Rosario will guide the late-running top selection.
Race 6 – Critical Eye H.

A total of seven fillies and mares will travel one mile on the dirt. #1 Secret Love (10-1) was a sharp allowance winner at seven furlongs most recently, and she recorded a swift half-mile bullet drill on Monday to give me the impression of a horse on the improve, as well. Chestnut daughter of Not This Time is well drawn on the rail with Johnny V. back in the irons, and the versatile sort will also receive a hot pace to rally into late while saving ground throughout. The four-year-old is worth a shot at her price.
Race 8 – Mike Lee S.

A solid field of nine sophomores will run seven panels on the dirt in this endeavor. I have always thought that #9 Who Hoo Thats Me (4-1) was a good one, and the son of Keen Ice will break through with his initial stakes victory on this occasion. One of two in the field for Abreu, the bay three-year-old had a great prep for this when a closing second in a sprint off the bench to set him up for Monday. Dylan Davis retains the mount atop the talented colt.
Race 9 – Kingston S.

Eight will vie in the 1 1/16-mile turf test. #5 Cross Border (9-2) is a Grade 2 winner against open company who looms large in this event for New York-breds for Maker. English Channel eight-year-old comes in fresh after training well at Belmont, and I expect him to make a big run in the stretch to get up late with Saez in the stirrups.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 09:33 AM

Stakes Spot Plays for Lone Star Park on May 30
John Mucciolo

A total of six stakes races will take center stage during a fine day of racing at Lone Star Park on Memorial Day.
Race 8: Memorial Day Sprint S.

An octet of fillies and mares will dash six panels in the affair. #4 Skinny Dip (5-1) added blinkers at the start of 2021 and went 3-for-4 with a second in four dirt sprints following the equipment change. The Greg Foley trainee didn’t offer much in a turf sprint to commence this season, but she moves to the main oval and will be more fit with a race under her belt. The Into Mischief mare will have Reylu Gutierrez in the silks.
Race 10: Ouija Board Distaff S.

The one-mile turf affair for fillies and mares attracted a nice field of nine, led by a pair of California invaders. Multiple stakes heroine #7 Avenue de France (5-2) has arguably the best turn of foot in the field, and the dark bay is also the class of the cast. The Leonard Powell pupil lands in a group with speed signed on, and I feel that she will receive a favorable setup in the event. Florent Geroux riding the strong late runner is a plus, too.
Race 11: Texas Derby

The $300,000 contest run at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for three-year-olds features my best bet on the card in #8 A. P.’s Secret (5-2) for conditioner Saffie Joseph. The gray son of Cupid exits a pair of Grade 2 tries, the latest one coming when a good fourth in the deep Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct. The $150,000 juvenile purchase has tactical speed, a fine draw outside, and posted a nice five-furlong morning drill most recently, as well. I expect the colt to track the pace while forwardly placed prior to taking the lead in early stretch beneath Edwin Gonzalez.
Race 12: Steve Sexton Mile S. (G3)

The lucrative finale will pit a well-matched field of 10 traveling eight furlongs on the dirt. One-run closer #4 Sheriff Brown (12-1) is an intriguing exotics contender in the race for trainer Todd Fincher. The gelded son of Curlin was fifth in the event last campaign, and I expect him to improve upon that on Monday. He didn’t show much last time out, but the bay was obviously prepping for this tilt and will move forward considerably in a field full of early types.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 09:34 AM

AlCimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 30, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

Hoosier Park has a loaded Memorial Day card ready to roll featuring Indiana 3-year-olds battling in Sires Stakes action. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 10, and the sequence will be my focus.

Race 10

1-Goo Goo Won (5-1)-Came 3rd to a well-meant winner in a 5-18 qualifier. This race may mean more to this 3-year-old than the one below. Using and looking for some value.
5-Always Gonna B You (7/5)-This filly should be the best if dialed on high in its HoP debut. Battled top stakes fillies here last year and deserves respect.

Race 11

1-The Longest Yard (7/2)-Qualified on 5-18 and sizzled the back half in 54.3 to win by almost 3 lengths. Looks like a main player off both Hoosier qualifiers.
5-Oneshotatthetitle (6-1)-Has been racing well, this will be a test but has 6 HoP races under his belt this season. Should offer a price and the program chalks (1-6-8) are making their 2022 debut.
6-Dalby Hanover (2-1)-Will use this Putnam trainee who should be a main player if dialed on high. This 3-year-old doesn't need to get on the point to win, unlike #8.

Race 12

1-Always Sugary (9/2)-Qualified well on Lasix and has shown big speed in the previous start on 4-21. Could offer some value and starting from the rail shouldn't hurt.
2-Hugs And Kisses (10-1)-Beat #1 on 4-21 and is worth a swing at this price. Has hit the board in 6 of 9 starts at HoP with 2 wins.
8-Trick Of The Light (6/5)-Likes to race on the point and hasn't had an outside post draw so this will be a challenge. If Tetrick works a sharp steer it could be picture time.

Race 13

6-Yo Mister (4-1)-Yoder trainee should be in the hunt but needs to mind manners and get a good trip. Chances for a win increase with an honest pace and if #7 needs a start.
7-Ponda Adventure (8/5)-Looks to be the best if dialed on high. Miller trainee has been consistent hitting the board in all 9 starts here with 7 wins. Could be primed for a big 3-year-old season.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,5/1,5,6/1,2,8/6,7
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 09:34 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary - 5-30-22

May 30, 2022

“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 7-Lil Nas; 5-Lil Richards Bello

Forecast: Lil Nas shows a spotty pattern – he had a couple of runs in 2020 and one last year – and launches another comeback in this moderate California-bred turf sprint that is ripe for the taking. The J. Sadler-trained colt is now a four-year-old but in a sign of confidence remains protected in maiden special weight company and attracts I. Ortiz, Jr., so while there’s nothing fancy showing on his work tab we’ll operate under the assumption that the J. Sadler-trained colt is fit and ready. His only turf sprint over the local lawn as a 2-year-old actually was pretty good. Lil Richards Bello, away since February of last year, has trained well for P. Eurton and might be a better type this time around. He’ll likely be heard from late. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with the bulk of the action going to Lil Nas.

Notable Workouts:

Lil Richards Bello (May 23, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h TT). Grade: B-
Even but slightly best inside Lady Aces (same time) for P. Eurton, never really asked and finishing with something left, final quarter mile in a sharp :23.3. Been away for more than a year, appears to be coming back in good enough shape.
View Workout Video

College Boy (April 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h). Grade: C+
Broke off a length in front of Fuente Ovejuna (5f, 1:01.2h) and was under some coaxing through the lane to wind up almost a length back at the wire (workmate not asked much), final three furlongs in :12 flat and :37.1. Probably needs more work but doesn’t appear to be anything special at this stage.
View Workout Video

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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Wine and Whisky; 4-Hail Freedom

Forecast: The two main contenders in this main track, entry-level, state-bred miler show mostly grass and/or all-weather form, so it might be wise to tread lightly. Wine and Whisky (TOC=9/5; ML=8/5) has a record of 4-1-1-1 on dirt so we’re hoping he’ll adapt well, especially with a clear edge in the speed figure department based on his recent grass and synthetic races at Golden Gate Fields. Second in a strong optional claimer up north last month, the J. Wong-trained horse projects to enjoy an ideal second flight trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Hail Freedom (TOC=8/5; ML=9/5) was a distant fourth in his only dirt outing, but that race was sprinting in his debut, so we really can’t make much of it. He’s never won around two turns but he did score gate-to-wire in a downhill turf sprint last time out so we’ll project him to be close up throughout or perhaps even on the front end as the controlling speed.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-Dancing Crane; 5-Red Diamond

Forecast: Dancing Crane (TOC=2-1; ML=5/2) has been away since November but returns for a barn that has strong stats (20%) with the layoff angle and projects to be the quickest of the quick in this six furlong turf dash for fillies and mares. She won her debut so we know she can fire fresh, and in a race without much early zip the daughter of Tapiture looks pretty solid. I. Ortiz, Jr. appears to have secured another live mount. Red Diamond (TOC=8/5; ML=2-1) is the most dangerous of the late runners, is preferred by the analytics, and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. A closing second in a similar affair with a career top speed figure over this course and distance last month, the R. McAnally-trained 5-year-old is lightly-raced with further improvement possible. We’ll have tickets using both while reserving the main punch for Dancing Crane.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:47 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 4-Defunded; 5-Stilleto Boy; 2-Royal Ship

Forecast: Not that he’s any kind of long shot, but Defunded (TOC=4-1; ML=3-1) is the best price of the three main players in this year’s renewal of the Hollywood Gold Cup – he’s listed at 3-1 on the morning line – so we’ll put him on top and gamble that the rapidly improving gelding can wire the field. The son of Dialed In certainly doesn’t need the lead to win but we suspect gate-to-wire strategy will be employed, and if he can shake loose early without undue pressure he could take this field a very long way. With just eight career starts and fresh from a career-top performance in his first start in nine months, the S. McCarthy-trained four-year-old may not have shown his best stuff quite yet. Stilleto Boy (TOC=6/5; ML=7/5) is drawn outside Defunded and likely will settle into a good stalking position. He was superb in victory when holding off heavily-favorited Express Train in the Californian S.-G2 in late April, an effort that produced a career top 108 Beyer figure, which if repeated today most likely will win. Since that race, the son of Shackleford has looked terrific in the a.m. Royal Ship (TOC=5/2; ML=6/5) was beaten a head by subsequent Saudi Cup winner Country Grammer in last year’s Gold Cup and in his seasonable bow in the John Shear Mile in mid-April showed he was as good as ever with a runaway five-length romp. While we rate him no better than third in this field, the Brazilian-bred gelding certainly is capable of winning. You can waive the white flag and use all three in rolling exotic play or take a stand and gamble on Defunded in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Royal Ship (May 15, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:26h). Grade: B+
Strong work without every really being asked much, breaking off five lengths behind Kura (6f, 1:13.3h) and catching that one at the wire before continuing out to 7/8 pole, splits of :24.3, :36.3, :48.2, 1:13.1 (to the wire) and then out in 1:26.1 on our watches. Was impressive in comeback win and holds that form for R. Mandella.
View Workout Video

Defunded (May 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h). Grade: B+
Excellent drill by rapidly-developing Dialed In gelding while best outside Triple Tap (same time), splits of :23 flat, :46.3 and :59.3 from the half mile pole to the seven furlong pole on our watches, mild coaxing through the lane while finishing with plenty left. Gets the acid test in the Hollywood Gold Cup.
View Workout Video

Stilleto Boy (May 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: A-
Blazed-faced chestnut was always going the better of the two while finishing almost a length in front of Tarantino (same time), final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.1, breezing throughout. Comes off stellar victory in the Californian S.-G2 and maintains that form.
View Workout Video

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RACE 5: Post: 3:18 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Smooth Like Strait; 2-Count Again

Forecast: Smooth Like Strait (TOC=4/5; ML=4/5 has failed to win in seven of his last eight starts, which is hard to fathom since he’s always been a genuine and consistent performer. The son of Midnight Lute is the defending Shoemaker Mile S.-G1 champion and once again is likely to inherit the role as the controlling speed, so we’ll put him on top while recognizing that at 4/5 on the morning line he won’t be offering much wagering value. Count Again (TOC=4-1; ML=5/2) is the most dangerous of the late-runners and won the Kilroe Mile-G1 over this course and distance two races back. However he has finished behind Smooth Like Strait in all five races in which they have faced each other. You can play it safe and have tickets using both in rolling exotic play, but the bulk of our play will go to Smooth Like Strait.

Notable Workouts:

Count Again (May 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h TT). Grade: A-
Broke off a couple of lengths in front Cash Equity (5f, 1:02h TT) in training track drill and went past that one in the final furlong, a half-length in front at the wire while strictly on his own, final half mile in :24.4 and :48 flat, powerful late. Right on edge for the Shoemaker Mile.
View Workout Video

Smooth Like Strait (May 23, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B+
Full of run through the lane in solo half mile main track breeze, splits of :24.2 and :48.3, never asked. Always genuine and consistent in the afternoon and is overdue for a win.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Post: 3:50 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Warren’s Queen Bee; 9-Cal

Forecast: Warren’s Queen Bee is clearly the best of the known element, and despite already having nine chances to break her maiden the daughter of Clubhouse Ride should leave as a relatively short-priced favorite in this extended sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. Second in her last pair and more than five lengths clear of the rest in her most recent outing, the C. Lewis-trained filly may only need worry about the newcomer, the P. Aguirre-trained Cal. The cleverly-named daughter of Stanford has shown enough ability in the a.m. (see below) to warrant a look in a soft spot, and from her comfortable outside draw she should have every chance to pop and go or stalk and pounce. We’ll have tickets that include both in rolling exotic play.

Notable Workouts:

Cal (May 15, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4hg). Grade: C+
Slow leaving the gate but then moved up inside Max Cherry (4f, :49hg) and was always going the better of the two without undue pressure, splits of :24.4, :36.2 and :48.3, fair-to-moderate for P. Aguirre. Has some speed and probably should be able to fit with maiden claiming types.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Isola Mia; 4-Exit Soul

Forecast: Expensive ($100,000) maiden claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile on grass in a race that should be handled with care. Spread if you feel the need to do so; we’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Isola Mia exits a series of maiden special weight affairs and should find this group well within her capabilities. Nicely drawn inside wile switching to top rider J. Hernandez, she shows the always-favorable blinkers off angle and a race two back that if repeated today would most likely land her in the winner’s circle. Exit Soul is another with the maiden-to-maiden-claiming angle while turning back from nine furlongs and adding blinkers. We’re expecting gate-to-wire tactics to be employed by this M. McCarthy-trained daughter of Animal Kingdom.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Famous Star; 1-Recall and Reload; 5-Show Time

Forecast: This maiden special weight sprint is quite challenging, even with just six entrants. We really don’t think Famous Star can beat a good maiden, but it may take one to beat him and we’re not convinced there’s one in the field. The son of Frosted increased his Beyer speed figure by nine points when a distant second to next-out winner (but subsequently disqualified) Special Ride last time out and has trained solidly since, so from his cozy outside draw the J. Sadler-trained colt should have no excuses as the 9/5 on the morning line favorite. The fast-working first-timer Recall and Reload is certain to attract plenty of play, especially with F. Prat picking up the call. The quick drills are readily apparent, though the son of Tapizar isn’t any world beater based on what we’ve seen. Still, you have to use him. Show Time is bred to win early (Into Mischief) and has shown enough in the a.m. to be included on your ticket, as well.

Notable Workouts:

Recall and Reload (May 16, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2hg). Grade: B
In blinkers, was asked from the gate and ridden most of the way outside Multi Platinum (same time) for S. McCarthy, splits of :23.2, :34.3, :46.1 and :59.2, losing a bit of his steam late after displaying good speed to the top of the lane. Obviously can run some and should make the entries soon.
View Workout Video

Still On the Books (May 14, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4hg). Grade: B-
In team gate drill with Havana Love (5f, :59.2hg) and was outrun in the opening quarter, then engaged speedy work mate on the turn but proved no match after a half and gradually fell back, splits of :24.2, :35.2, :47.2 and 1:00 flat while gearing up for debut. O’Neill-trained son of Practical Joke has some run but might need a race based on this drill.
View Workout Video

Anaheim (May 23, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B-
In company with Vetoed (4f, :48.1h. up at wire) and maybe was slightly second best, not really asked much to the wire but then put to some pressure when continuing out an extra furlong to 7/8 pole, splits of :23.4, :48.1 and 1:00.4 on our watches, okay drill, nothing great. Wouldn’t mind seeing him on grass, bred for it on both sides.
b>View Workout Video

Show Time (May 25, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h). Grade: B
Light coaxing through the lane while even inside Big City Lights (same time) for R. Mandella, final quarter mile in :24.2. Good mover by Into Mischief seems like a trier, not sure how quick he is.
View Workout Video

Famous Star (May 13, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B+
Ridden a bit through the lane inside Unbridled Mary (same time, urged late) and may have been slightly best, final quarter in :25 flat. Caught a monster when a distant second last time out, probably has some improvement in him.
View Workout Video

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RACE 9: Post: 5:23 PT Grade: B+
Single: 8-Mubtadaa

Forecast: Mubtadaa (TOC=5/2; ML=7/2 finished second over this course and distance at this level last time out while earning a career-top speed figure that, if repeated today, should be more than good enough to win. The V. Cerin-trained gelding veered in a start, took a solid bump to lose favorable early position, then was floated out a bit wide crossing the dirt before staying on gamely through the lane while unable to catch the sharp front-runner. Drawn comfortably outside, the son of War Front should be able to control proceedings on the front end or from a stalking position, so at 7/2 on the morning line we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 10: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Going Global

Forecast: Going Global (TOC=7/5; ML=8/5) was 30 cents on the dollar in the Royal Heroine S.-G2 last month and though making hard work of it won as expected while earning a strong speed figure, but one not quite what she’s capable of on her best day. We’re expecting to see her best day today, as a recent training track workout (see below) tells us she’s as good as ever. The Irish-bred filly is reunited with regular pilot F. Prat, who should have her somewhere in mid-pack to the top of the lane before cutting her loose. A perfect five-for-five over the Santa Anita turf course, the P. D’Amato-trained filly is 8/5 on the morning line and will offer value at that price if you can get.

Notable Workouts:

Going to Vegas (May 16, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h TT). Grade: A-
Broke off far behind Ma France and Roxbury (5f, 1:01.4h TT) and rallied along the rail to go on by that pair in the final furlong while never being asked a drop, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :35 flat for P. D’Amato. On top of her game.
View Workout Video

Going Global (May 213, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: A-
Broke off a length or so behind talented Hong Kong Harry (5f, 1:00.3h TT) and engaged that one entering the lane before finishing head-and-head at the wire, neither one asked, splits of :24.4, :36.4 and 1:00.2, both with plenty left late. Looks ready for another huge effort.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 09:34 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Lone Star Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Sign of War He looks like the prompting pace from here, and some of the major threats will be running from a bit further off it. Think he has a chance to put this one away into the lane.
#6 Excess Magic He has been very good when rallying in turf sprints, including a win over a couple of these here earlier this month. Big fan of this guy, and he's the one to fear late.
#1 Tiz Magic She's quick enough to be in the mix early from the fence, but she can also settle just a touch and work out a pocket trip if the race flow demands it. Not out of the question.
Race Summary Lots of cool promotions available on today's Lone Star card -- make sure to register on the homepage before betting today! Sign of War might be good for a thrill in a race without the kind of typical early burn you'd expect to see in a spot like this.

Lone Star Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#7 Cover Me Up He showed some nice pace when settling for second behind Creative Minister, who came back to run pretty well in the Preakness behind Early Voting. Obvious danger off the tough recent company line.
#4 King Ottoman Maiden isn't totally overmatched here, as he has now turned in three really reliable route tries to open his career. Price look for a piece of this.
#8 A. P's Secret He has run into some tough customers along the way this year, and he should be able to work out a pretty good trip while tracking the pace from here.
Race Summary Cover Me Up has turned in some good recent races, and he brings a really good company line from Churchill earlier this month. Wouldn't be surprised to see him land this -- maiden King Ottoman might be good for a piece alongside the logical players.

Lone Star Park - Race #12
Picks Notes
#1 Rated R Superstar Strong lean here to close out the card after this guy made a wide move and flattened last out, but his ceiling is high enough to win this if he brings one of his better efforts. Old timer can still hit hard with these.
#6 Mish I worry a bit about the presence of a few other forward players that might force him to keep the pressure on the gas from the jump, and he's getting a big class test here. Your guess is as good as mine.
#8 Shaaz High-upside runner has just three starts to his name, but he has been well respected from the start of his career. He's another who will get tested for class but wouldn't surprise.
Race Summary Rated R Superstar might offer a decent price with a couple flashier types lined up in here, and he has some room to bounce back while rallying late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 09:35 AM

Churchill Downs Picks - Monday, May 30, 2022

Race 1: 1-6-7-2
Race 2: 4-1-7-2
Race 3: 7-5-3-2
Race 4: 2-4-8-5
Race 5: 1-7-8-4
Race 6: 7-2-4-5
Race 7: 10-5-2-6
Race 8: 3-2-6-4
Race 9: 3-9-4-8
**Most Likely: Sconsin (Race 8)**
**Best Value: Surrogate (Race 9)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-30-2022, 09:35 AM

Finger Lakes Picks - Monday, May 30, 2022

Race 1: 6-3-5-4
Race 2: 4-6-1-3
Race 3: 2-1-3-7
Race 4: 3-1/1A-5-4
Race 5: 4-2-6-1
Race 6: 3-1-6-5
Race 7: 6-2-5-4
Race 8: 3-7-6-5
Race 9: 2-1-7-6
**Most Likely Winner: Flower Moon #2 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Social Mobility #6 (Race 7)**