Monday 5/30/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - May 30

CHURCHILL DOWNS TIPS - MONDAY, MAY 30, 2022

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $50,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 MEGANS CLARA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	2	Megans Clara	G Saez
PLACE	7-2	1	Four Dawn	A Beschizza
SHOW	4-1	4	Bourbina	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	5-1	7	Zmuda	J Graham
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	6	Sparkle of Hope	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	5	Bizzy Echo	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #2 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	4	I Cross My Heart	M Murrill
PLACE	10-1	3	Pontiffany	F Arrieta
SHOW	5-1	1	Oaxaca	G Franco
WILD CARD	3-1	7	Nogratz	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Gardenly	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	6	Open Says Me	G Saez
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
RACE #3 $10,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:43 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Fightville	R Diaz
PLACE	4-1	8	Barstow	G Corrales
SHOW	6-1	9	Plemmonston	R Bejarano
WILD CARD	5-1	7	Tightwad	M Garcia
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Mo Heat	R Miranda
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	4	Chase Tracker	A Beschizza
* EXACTA: 3-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/9 BOX, 7/8/9 BOX
RACE #4 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:13 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 CHILENO
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Chileno	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	5-2	8	Jeeper	J Graham
SHOW	3-1	3	Gate Runner	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Magnificus	J Talamo
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Supercool	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Conspiracy Fact	C J Hernandez
* EXACTA: 2-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/8 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX
RACE #5 $72,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	5	Nepotism	C J Lanerie
PLACE	5-1	7	Group Hug	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	4-1	8	Leading West	D Cohen
WILD CARD	7-2	2	Mount Athos	C Landeros
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Jelly Nougat	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	4	Southern Passage	J Talamo
* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX
RACE #6 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 BAD BEAT BRIAN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	8	Bad Beat Brian	T Gaffalione
PLACE	7-2	2	Strike Me Down	R Bejarano
SHOW	4-1	7	Cowan	G Corrales
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Thanks Mr. Eidson	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	11	Anaconda	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Devils Tower	F Arrieta
* EXACTA: 8-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/8 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
RACE #7 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	6	Greener Pastures	R Bejarano
PLACE	7-2	10	A C Expressway	J Talamo
SHOW	15-1	7	Uber Kirk	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Bourbon Thunder	J Graham
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Meister	J R Leparoux
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Cryo	A Beschizza
* EXACTA: 6-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/10 BOX, 3/7/10 BOX
RACE #8 $200,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 WINNING COLORS STAKES GIII
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	3	Sconsin	T Gaffalione
PLACE	5-2	2	Novel Squall	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	6-1	1	Joyful Cadence	J Talamo
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Lil Tootsie	J Graham
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Euphoric	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Tipsy Gal	R Santana Jr.
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
COMMENTS: SCONSIN has four wins in seven Churchill races and one win in eight elsewhere. NOVELL SQUALL ran better numbers from gate to wire in her last. JOYFUL CADENCE never ran out of the money in seven at the distance. LIL TOOTSIE tends to run well fresh like today and has a bullet workout getting ready.
RACE #9 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 3/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	7	Vintage Year	V Cheminaud
PLACE	7-2	9	Calrissian	G Corrales
SHOW	4-1	4	Stamkos	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Always Above	A Achard
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	11	Sticky Issue	J Graham
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Sailors Return	G Saez
* EXACTA: 7-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/9 BOX, 4/8/9 BOX

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Belmont Park Tip Sheet - May 30

BELMONT PARK TIPS - MONDAY, MAY 30, 2022

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-5	5	Royal Currency	D Davis
PLACE	5-1	2	Missing Fortune	M Franco
SHOW	6-1	1	Sweet Maeve	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Bern Rosey Bern	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	6	Secret Hideout	H K Harkie
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Sister Linda	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #2 $125,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $125,000 MOUNT VERNON STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Classic Lady	J Rosario
PLACE	3-1	3	Shes the One	T McCarthy
SHOW	9-5	1	Runaway Rumour	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Silky Blue	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	2	Giacosa	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Pop the Bubbly	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
COMMENTS: CLASSIC LADY ran in the money six of six at Belmont. SHES THE ONE has three wins and two seconds in five career starts. RUNAWAY RUMOUR steps down form a GIII and should be better in round two off the bench. SILKY BLUE has three wins in seven at Belmont and no wins on six elsewhere.
RACE #3 $80,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:03 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 MAJOR SPIN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	2	Major Spin	K Carmouche
PLACE	7-2	1	Aggregation	M Franco
SHOW	8-1	4	Thrill of It	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	3-1	8	Pineapple Man	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Full Moon Fever	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Majestic Tiger	J Lezcano
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX
RACE #4 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 2:34 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 NIKOSTRATOS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	4	Nikostratos	M Franco
PLACE	5-2	7	Mr. Connecticut	T McCarthy
SHOW	6-1	3	Bernardino	J Rosario
WILD CARD	10-1	8	Uragano	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	Biondi	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	9	Lookin Grand	J R Velazquez
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX
RACE #5 $80,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:03 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 RHEAUME
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	4	Rheaume	T McCarthy
PLACE	7-2	9	New Ginya	D Davis
SHOW	9-2	8	Out of Sight	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	3-1	3	Waterville	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Kannon Fire	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Im Fine	E Cancel
* EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/8/9 BOX, 3/8/9 BOX
RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:34 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 CRITCAL EYE HANDICAP
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	4	Bank Sting	J Rosario
PLACE	10-1	1	Secret Love	J R Velazquez
SHOW	9-5	7	Make Mischief	D Davis
WILD CARD	9-2	2	Maiden Beauty	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Love and Love	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	Laobanonaprayer	L A Rodriguez Castro
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
COMMENTS: BANK STING won three of four at the distance and three of three on a fast track. SECRET LOVE has two wins and a second in three at Belmont Park. MAKE MISCHIEF showed major improvement in the first half of her last start. MAIDEN BEAUTY has seven wins at the distance in 17 races and just two scores in 22 at other lengths.
RACE #7 $125,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:06 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $125,000 BOUWERIE STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	4	Adversity	K Carmouche
PLACE	15-1	7	Liberty Flame	M Franco
SHOW	1-1	2	Yo Cuz	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Captainsdaughter	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	8	True Empress	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	3	Sterling Silver	T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
COMMENTS: ADVERSITY ran the top last race speed figure and stands to be better in her second after a layoff. LIBERTY FLAME ran her best race at the distance. YO CUZ is undefeated in two at the distance and will be a heavy favorite. He has been an all or nothing horse. CAPTAINSDAUGHTER never missed the money is six on a fast track.
RACE #8 $125,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** R8: $125,000 MIKE LEE STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	2	Best Idea	J R Velazquez
PLACE	4-1	9	Who Hoo Thats Me	D Davis
SHOW	6-1	8	Hot Rod Rumble	J Rosario
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Tin Pan Alley	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Rotknee	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Kazmike	T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 2-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/9 BOX, 4/8/9 BOX
COMMENTS: BEST IDEA missed by a head in his last as the favorite. Trainer Todd Pletcher rebounds at 27 percent the time out. WHO HOO THATS ME improved his pace numbers from start to finish in his last. HOR ROD RUMBLE ran the highest last race speed figure and has six consecutive high quality starts. TIN PAN ALLEY got the maiden score in his last and has decent work since.
RACE #9 $125,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 5:12 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $125,000 KINGSTON STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	7	Somelikeithotbrown	J L Ortiz
PLACE	6-1	3	Therapist	E Cancel
SHOW	9-2	5	Cross Border	L Saez
WILD CARD	12-1	8	Step Dancer	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	1	Ocala Dream	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Sanctuary City	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX
COMMENTS: SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN has four wins and four seconds in eight at the distance. THERAPIST ran by far his best late pace numbers in his last outing. CROSS BORDER has 25 furlongs of workouts since his last start and should be ready for today. STEP DANCER likes the distance with two wins and two thirds in four tries.
RACE #10 $75,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:44 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	11	Queen of Lies	K Carmouche
PLACE	6-1	3	Bavarian Creme	J Lezcano
SHOW	6-1	12	Crosstalk	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	5-1	6	Celebrity News	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	15	Voleuse	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	9	Smokin Hot Kitty	D Davis
* EXACTA: 11-3 BOX, 3-12 BOX, 12-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/11/12 BOX, 3/6/12 BOX

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Belmont Park Hotlist - May 30

May 29, 2022

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Monday, May 30, 2022 at Belmont Park
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 mi] – (3) Sister Linda (B) returns from her debut which came back in September against a formidable field that included Venti Valentine where she raced greenly and faced a lot of traffic. She is now in the barn of Horacio DePaz and gets first-time Lasix. (5) Royal Currency is an improving horse for Charlie Baker with a pair of seconds in her recent starts. (2) Missing Fortune tried the grass recently and did not run well so it is back to the main track where she ran better in her debut at odds of 6-1. (6) Secret Hideout was 77-1 in her first start last month and did little running. She came back two weeks later and was bet down to 9-1 with Lasix for the first time and finished more competitively.
4^th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (2) Whistler’s Honor (A) had the look of a horse that needed more distance before his first start back in November and gets it today. He broke poorly that day and rallied late to get up for fifth having made up a lot of ground. Jose Ortiz gets the mount. (1) Biondi had the lead and finished second after a layoff in his 2022 debut and gets a rider upgrade to Luis Saez. (4) Nikostratus had a pair of seconds last year for Jonathan Thomas and comes back with blinkers on and first-time Lasix. He ships in from Monmouth Park where the trainer is based this summer. (6) Front Line Dancer makes his second start which also comes after a winter break and gets blinkers and Lasix for Todd Pletcher. He got jostled in the early going and had to rally from last to fifth.
7^th race [NY, Bouwerie, 7F] – (3) Sterling Silver was over-matched in her last two starts in open company stakes and now moves back to NY-bred racing where she won her first two starts. She also finds a field loaded with speed horses which is ideal for her late-running style. (6) Kisses for Emily broke her maiden in an open company stake at Parx in her sixth start in March. She was sixth last time against state-breds but gets the right pace scenario in here. (8) True Empress was a maiden winner two back with a closing move. (5) Captainsdaughter ran poorly on the turf which had happened before and now is back on the right surface with blinkers on and an excellent pace set-up.
8^th race [NY, Mike Lee, 7F] – (9) Who Hoo Thats Me (B) made his 2022 debut in an allowance and rallied late to get second, beaten by less than a length. He finds a field loaded with speed which should suit him well. (4) Tin Pan Alley ran well in both starts for Chad Brown including a Saratoga debut and then a maiden score in March. (2) Best Idea won his first start for Todd Pletcher, tried a NY-bred stake, and then was second in an allowance by a head. The pace scenario is positive for him as Johnny V. gets on board. (8) Hot Rod Rumble won his last two starts for Steve Asmussen in a maiden and then an allowance and Joel Rosario gets the mount.
Best bets: Sterling Silver (7^th); Who Hoo That’s Me (8^th). Best value: Sister Linda (1^st); Whistler’s Honor (4^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(3)	Sister Linda	B on 9/26	1	Raced greenly in debut and steadied in traffic.
(2)	Whistler’s Honor	A on 11/14	4	Broke far back in debut and rallied well for fifth.
(9)	Who Hoo Thats Me	B on 4/24	8	Late rally for second following a layoff.

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Churchill Downs Hotlist - May 30

May 29, 2022

Today’s Churchill Downs Hot List races to watch
Monday, May 30, 2022
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (4) Bourbina rallied for second last time and can get the job done here. (5) Bizzy Echo could be a contender in a claimer. (2) Megan’s Clara was second at Oaklawn Park and should not be overlooked here. (1) Four Dawn was second in her last two starts and will be a contender in this field Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5. Exactas: 4-5 over 1-2 and 1-2 over 4-5.
3rd race – (3) Fightville was a distant second last time but looks best here. (4) Chase Tracker could perk up in this field. (7) Tightwad seems capable of a better effort today. (1) El Franco will be a threat from the rail. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-7. Doubles: 1-3-4-7 with 2-3-7-8.
4th race – (8) Jeeper (B) was second last time and seems overdue for a maiden win after never finishing worse than third in four career starts. (3) Gate Runner cuts back to a more manageable distance and should be the main rival. (2) Chileno seems overdue for a maiden win. (7) G Flat didn’t fire in his debut but deserves a second chance here. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-7-8.
7th race – (8) Right Tone is working sharply and should fire despite the layoff. (10) A C Expressway will enjoy the class drop after running in a stakes. (1) Critical Threat might appreciate a shorter distance. (4) Meister could be tough to catch here. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-8-10. Doubles: 1-4-8-10 with 2-3-6.
8th race – (3) Sconsin looked good in a stakes win over Bell’s The One last year and merits top billing here. (2) Novel Squall won easily last time and looks like the one to fear. (6) Euphoric has enough speed to be a factor from the outside. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-6.

No.

Letter/Last race

Today’s race

Comment

(8)

Jeeper

B, 5/3

4 CD

Was second last time out