Saturday 6/18/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358322

    #16
    2022 Royal Ascot: Selections for Saturday
    Kellie Reilly

    Saturday’s grand finale at Royal Ascot showcases prohibitive favorites in two of the stakes events, but the marquee sprints could be ripe for big prices. Fifteen were declared for the Jersey (G3), and a 27-horse cavalry charge is lining up for the Platinum Jubilee (G1).
    Race 1 (9:30 a.m.) – Chesham S.

    #1 Alfred Munnings (1-1) offers no value, but the Aidan O’Brien juvenile has tipped his hand as something potentially very special from the start. On pedigree, he shouldn’t have come to hand soon enough to crush a seven-furlong Leopardstown maiden in mid-May, boding extremely well for his prospects. A Dubawi half-brother to dual classic heroine Snowfall, he is out of a Group 3-winning full sister to Found, and therefore bred to excel in time. So highly regarded was he as a youngster that the Coolmore brain trust gave him an illustrious name kept in reserve, according to Racing Post. Alfred Munnings has had this race as his aim all along, confirmed before he’d even cooled out from his debut romp.

    Perhaps the biggest danger is #3 Crypto Force (10-1), who has overturned one Ballydoyle hotpot already. Overlooked at 14-1 at the Curragh June 1, the Michael O’Callaghan pupil rolled from off the pace to beat odds-on Auguste Rodin. To be fair, Auguste Rodin had meaningful trouble, but even with a clean trip he would have had a fight on his hands. The crypto worth investing in these days, Crypto Force has plenty of upside as a Time Test colt from the family of globetrotting star Pilsudski. And he just sold for €900,000 at Monday’s Goffs London Sale.

    #2 Alzahir (10-1) should have won in his unveiling at Yarmouth, but jockey Frankie Dettori was outridden by James Doyle aboard a Godolphin runner. Taking a slim lead, Alzahir appeared to idle when Dettori took it easy. He thought he had his rival’s measure, only to get nipped on the line. With more energetic handling, Alzahir most likely would arrive here with a win to his credit. Note that stablemate Reach for the Moon was runner-up in the same Yarmouth race last year before improving to place second in the Chesham. By Sea the Stars, and a half-brother to 2017 Shadwell Mile (G1) hero Suedois, Alzahir could be the best of the Gosdens' trio here, although #9 One World (15-1) is eligible to move forward as well off his hard-fought decision on soft at Haydock.

    #13 The Foxes (12-1) was fourth to #4 Dark Thirty (15-1) in their mutual premiere at Newbury, a hot race whose second and third have both come back to win well. The Foxes’ trainer, Andrew Balding, has emphasized how much the well-bred juvenile has come on for that run, and he stands to reverse form in the rematch. The Churchill colt is a half-brother to major winners Bangkok and Matterhorn, from the immediate family of mile champ Ribchester. Not to be overlooked is the Johnstons’ duo of #6 Finn’s Charm (12-1) and the filly #14 Lakota Sioux (20-1), both of whom leapt forward once stepping up to this trip.
    Race 2 (10:05 a.m.) – Jersey (G3)

    One angle that has worked in this ferociously competitive race is to key in on horses dropping in class and distance from mile classics. Five fit that prerequisite, with #15 Star Girls Aalmal (8-1) arguably bringing the best form as the fourth in the Irish 1000 Guineas (G1).

    Trained by Henry de Bromhead, better known for his exploits with the jumpers, Star Girls Aalmal was traveling nearly as well as eventual Guineas winner Homeless Songs when they cruised into contention. She didn’t see out the final furlong, but still wound up in a close finish for the minors with Tuesday — the next-out Oaks (G1) winner — and Concert Hall, the Oaks fourth who’d previously beaten Thursday’s Ribblesdale (G2) scorer Magical Lagoon. Although this is the quickest ground she’s encountered, Star Girls Aalmal is by a firm-turf lover in Australian-bred Elzaam. The lightly-raced filly, who actually debuted in a listed stakes last fall, is capable of further progress. Connections must rate her very highly; she was a
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 358322

      #17
      Piassek's Plays: Saturday Stakes Action at the Jersey Shore
      by John Piassek

      Monmouth Park, Race 11, $150,000 Eatontown Stakes, post time 4:47 p.m. ET
      weekend Television schedule

      Friday, June 17: 12:30-5:30 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

      Saturday, June 11: 9 a.m.-12 p.m. on NBC; 1-3:30 p.m. on FS1; 3:30-7 p.m. and 9-11:30 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

      Sunday, June 12: 12:30-3 p.m. and 5-6 p.m. on FS1; 3-5 p.m. ET on FS2; post time varies on TVG

      #8 Fluffy Socks: The Saturday card at Monmouth Park is absolutely loaded. There's four stakes races on the card, all of which serve as preps for stakes races on TVG.com Haskell Stakes day July 23. The Eatontown features a field of fillies and mares going long on the grass. Several of these are likely to reappear in the Matchmaker Stakes on the Haskell undercard.

      Chad Brown, who has no shortage of top grass mares in his barn, entered a pair in here. One of them is Fluffy Socks, a graded stakes winner as a 2-year-old and a 3-year-old. She was defeated in both her races this year but she ran huge in both starts. She made her 4-year-old debut in mid-April at Keeneland in a stakes-quality allowance race. After falling off a slow early pace, she made a bold bid at the top of the stretch, but flattened out late and ended up second. Still, considering it was her first race in several months, it was an impressive performance. Next out, in the Modesty Stakes Presented by TwinSpires at Churchill Downs, she once again closed well and finished second to stablemate Bleecker Street, who came back to win the New York Stakes last Friday at Belmont Park. There's no one in here nearly as tough as that rival. Fluffy Socks's speed figures are consistently better than those of the rest, and she improved five points on the Brisnet scale last out from her season debut and six points on the Equibase scale. With Manny Franco set to come down from New York for this mount, Fluffy Socks looks poised to turn in a winning effort.

      Strategy on a $10 Budget

      $6 to win on 8

      $4 exacta, 8 with 4

      Strategy on a $25 Budget

      $15 to win on 8

      $5 exacta, 8 with 4, 6 ($10 total)

      Strategy on a $50 Budget

      $26 to win on 8

      $8 exacta, 8 with 4, 6 ($16 total)

      $2 trifecta, 8 with 4, 6 with 4, 6, 7 ($8 total)

      Monmouth Park, Race 12, $150,000 TVG.com Pegasus Stakes, post time 5:19 p.m. ET

      Click image to purchase shirt.

      #4 Electability: I'll try Chad and Manny again in this race, which serves as the local prep for the Haskell. Chad has the market cornered on top 3-year-old males as well, with horses like Zandon, Early Voting, and Jack Christopher already in his barn. Electability looks to stamp himself as a major 3-year-old contender here. He was one of the favorites in the Peter Pan Stakes last out, but didn't have much of a chance when We the People ran them off their feet. With the way the pace unfolded, Electability wasn't able to catch We the People, but he ran on well in the stretch and finished third, losing a place photo to Golden Glider. He's gotten better with every start and should find himself in a much more honest pace scenario. In fact, it wouldn't be surprising if Manny sent him to the lead and tried to control the terms himself.

      Strategy on a $10 Budget

      $5 to win on 4

      $5 exacta, 4 with 2

      Strategy on a $25 Budget

      $15 to win on 4

      $10 exacta, 4 with 2

      Strategy on a $50 Budget

      $28 to win on 4

      $15 exacta, 4 with 2

      $7 exacta, 2 with 4
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 358322

        #18
        Seoul Saturday: Race-By-Race Preview (June 18)

        Saturday’s racing is at Seoul with 9 races from 10:45 to 18:00. Here are the previews:

        Seoul Race 1: Class 6 (1000M) Allowance / KRW 75 Million

        Eight previously unraced two-year-olds get their first taste of racing here so we head to the trial videos. (3) FURIOSA led all the way around in her heat with a couple of today’s rivals qualifying behind her. The time wasn’t quick but she was on the bridle throughout, was unhurried and looked mature. If she brings all that to the races, she will win. (6) LUCKY POWER posted the fastest time of any of these in heats when finishing 5th of eight in her trial on May 13th. He was ridden a bit harder than Furiosa, but the four who crossed the line ahead of her are all experienced race winners and she held her own. That can have been a good experience and he can go well first-up. (2) NAOL HAENGBOK ran on from a wide gate for 4th in the Furiosa trial and from a good draw can go close. (5) DUSON CLASSIC and (7) TEMPLAR QUEEN others to look out for.
        Selections (3) Furiosa (6) Lucky Power (2) Naol Haengbok (5) Duson Classic
        Next Best 7, 1
        Fast Start 1, 3, 6, 7

        Seoul Race 2: Class 6 (1000M) Allowance / KRW 75 Million

        More juvenile first-timers. There was just a nose between (2) NAOL SNIPER and (6) WONPYEONG TOWN when they trialed up together back on May 13th, crossing the line in 3rd and 2nd in fair time. Naol Sniper was perhaps doing it a bit easier and with the inside draw he is the one to beat first-up here although both should go well and will probably be at the top of the market together. (7) GIANT PUNCH hinted at ability when 4th on nine in his trial, settling handy before dropping back and then running on. He too will have backers here. (4) GLOBAL POWER ran on well for 2nd in his trial, some way behind the proven racehorse who won the heat, but doing enough to suggest he has some prize money in him at this first attempt. (1) HANGANG ACE another in the hunt.
        Selections (2) Naol Sniper (6) Wonpyeong Town (7) Giant Punch (4) Global Power
        Next Best 1, 8
        Fast Start 2, 4, 5, 7

        Seoul Race 3: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 40 Million

        (8) MUSTANG CHARM is probably the one to beat here having followed up three consecutive 5th place finishes with a 2nd at this distance on May 21st when handy throughout. She can settle just behind the early speed here and could prove too strong at the business end of the race. (2) PERMISSION TO WIN has shown improvement across his three outings to date, culminating in a runner-up finish over this distance on May 22nd when he settled back and finished well He draws better today and can aim to match or better here. (4) INNER PEACE ran 3rd behind Mustang Charm on debut in that race on May 21st when on pace throughout. She has four-lengths to make up here but should have come on for that run and from a good gate will be on the speed again. (12) DAECHEON CHAMP and (3) GRAY THOR others in at least the placing frame.
        Selections (8) Mustang Charm (2) Permission To Win (4) Inner Peace (12) Daecheon Champ
        Next Best 3, 1
        Fast Start 3, 4, 10, 12

        Seoul Race 4: Class 5 (1300M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

        (7) SUNGAN TOUCH comes up in class having scored his maiden win at start number four over 1200M on May 14th when leading from gate to wire. At the start before he registered a fast time at this distance when 3rd having overcome a wide draw. This is harder but he should be on the lead again and may take some beating. (8) BYEORAK comes back in trip following a couple of spins around 1700M. His sole win came at this trip and he looks nicely in here. (11) THE REAPER remains a maiden after ten outings but has four runner-up finishes to his name, including his latest over 1200M at this class on May 22nd. His running style means the wide draw won’t be an issue and he can challenge late here. (1) MIR BEST tries class 5 for the first time following his maiden score last month. In his case, it came at this distance and from the inside gate here, he should be able to drop in behind the early speed and challenge. (6) THUNDER HORSE another in the placing frame.
        Selections (7) Sungan Touch (8) Byeorak (11) The Reaper (1) Mir Best
        Next Best 6, 9
        Fast Start 3, 7, 9, 11

        Seoul Race 5: Class 5 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

        (6) EUNHYE CHUNGMAN enters in good form with a 2nd and a 4th from her latest two, both at class and distance and beating a couple of today’s rivals in the latest of them. She has the fastest time of any of these at the distance and can sit on pace or handy and run on here. She will probably start the odds-on favourite. If you want to take her on, then (7) NUBIGO may provide some interest. He is one of only two in the race to have won at the distance and generally records consistent times. He can sit behind the speed here and run into some money. (8) K FRENZY is yet to win in ten appearances but has no fewer than six top-three finishes. He races here for the first time since January and while he didn’t offer too many clues in a trial earlier this month, this is a nice race to come back in and he can be considered. (3) QUEEN OF BEST and (5) SOUJU others who could contest the minors.
        Selections (6) Eunhye Chungman (7) Nubigo (8) K Frenzy (3) Queen Of Best
        Next Best 5, 2
        Fast Start 2, 3, 6, 8

        Seoul Race 6: Class 4 (1800M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million

        We’ll take a chance here on (7) ROYAL HAMSEONG. True, he is an eighteen-race maiden but he enters in reasonable form and was a close at hand 3rd on his latest outing on May 29th. He can settle midfield and run on and it could be his day. The obvious danger is (8) SOARA BABA. She won back-to-back races at 1700M and 1800M in February and April, the latter at this class, before running 4th, again at class and distance on May 21st. She looks nicely in here and in this small field she will almost certainly be a hot favourite. (3) GLOBAL LUCKY is another long-standing maiden but she comes back in trip following a good 3rd place at this class over 1400M on May 22nd when she went right back before finishing well and she can be considered here. (5) MILKY SHERRY was scratched from a planned outing two weeks ago. She actually beat Soara Baba when 2nd on May 21st and shouldn’t be ruled out. (2) CHOTOMA another in the hunt.
        Selections (7) Royal Hamseong (8) Soara Baba (3) Global Lucky (5) Milky Sherry
        Next Best 2, 9
        Fast Start 1, 4, 5, 8

        Seoul Race 7: Class 4 (1700M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

        A small but competitive field. (1) TITAN SOCKS is the one to beat following a good 3rd place at this class over 1800M on May 21st, (finishing between Milky Sherry and Soara Baba who we saw in race 6) when he was handy throughout. He draws well here and is nicely treated by the handicap conditions. (8) CHEONBISEONG has been a consistent performer at this distance. He likes to be on pace and in this small field, he should be able to navigate to a forward position and then can be in this a long way. (4) WORLD RACER comes up in class and significantly in trip following a win over 1300M on April 30th when from gate ten, he sat back before launching a strong challenge. That running style suggests the distance can suit and he comes in nicely weighted. (2) MANSE and (6) SPEAR GUN are others who can enter the calculations.
        Selections (1) Titan Socks (8) Cheonbiseong (4) World Racer (2) Manse
        Next Best 6, 3
        Fast Start 1, 3, 7, 8

        Seoul Race 8: Class 3 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 75 Million

        (9) JANGSAN LASER won three of his first five starts and comes in following a very close 2nd place over class and distance on April 21st. He will be on or close to the pace here and at start number nine looks ready to return to the winner’s circle. (2) DREAM KNOCK actually beat Jangsan Laser when the pair met and ran 3rd and 5th at class and distance on May 1st. Dream Knock significantly exceeded expectations that day and this is her first run since but she draws very well and carries a feather weight. She can go close. (10) CHOEGO RACE is a winner at this distance at class 4 level and has a 2nd and 4th in two attempts at this class. He will be in the mix here. (6) SPRING KKUM is up in class following back-to-back wins at class 4 and while this is harder, he can measure up. (7) YEOKJEONUI USEUNG is another in the frame.
        Selections (9) Jangsan Laser (2) Dream Knock (10) Choego Race (6) Spring Kkum
        Next Best 7, 3
        Fast Start 2, 3, 9, 10

        Seoul Race 9: Class 2 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 90 Million

        (7) YEONHUI ILCHUL ran out a class and distance winner in fine style on May 7th, settling midfield and proving too strong. She does come up a full 4kg in the weights today but that is the only concern and she looks to be the one to beat again. (4) OXFORD KING mixes his form but on his day is very good. He has the fastest time among these for the distance and from a good draw can be a big danger. So too (3) RAON FASHION who beat a number of these, including Oxford King, on his way to a class and distance victory, also on May 7th. He too comes up in the weights for that, but has every chance. (11) COBRA BALL was 3rd in that race having been favourite and can be given another chance today while (9) VICTOR MOON makes it up to this class for the first time after an all the way win at the distance at the end of March and under a light weight can be competitive here too.
        Selections (7) Yeonhui Ilchul (4) Oxford King (3) Raon Fashion (11) Cobra Ball
        Next Best 9, 1
        Fast Start 1, 3, 7, 11
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 358322

          #19
          Royal Ascot: 1/ST Forecast | Saturday, June 18, 2022

          June 17, 2022 | By 1/ST BET

          The Lineup

          9:30 am ET | Chesham Stakes
          10:05 am ET | Group 3 Jersey Stakes
          10:40 am ET | Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes
          11:20 am ET | Group 1 Platinum Jubilee Stakes
          12:00 pm ET | Wokingham Stakes
          12:35 pm ET | Golden Gates Stakes
          1:10 pm ET | Queen Alexandra Stakes

          The Incentive

          The Americans

          The final American participant at Royal Ascot ’22 will be previous local winner Campanelle in a return engagement. The Wesley Ward trainee takes flight in the Group 1 Platinum Jubilee (Race 4). She won the Group 2 Queen Mary here in 2020 and the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup a year ago. Campanelle is third choice at 11-1 among the UK Bookmakers.

          The Main Event

          A massive field of 27 sprinters dash 6 furlongs in the final Group 1 of the Royal Ascot meeting. The aforementioned Campanelle seeks an historic third Royal Ascot career score and piques American interest. But it’s the Australian, two-time Grade 1 winner Home Affairs who is strongly favored at 2-1 in the UK books. No other runner is being traded in single-digit odds. Those following the week at Royal Ascot know that Australia’s renowned Nature Strip romped in the Group 1 King’s Stand, so that nation looks for a sweep of the biggest dashes this week – and will also be represented by Artorious. Godolphin’s Creative Force returns to the scene of his Group 3 Jersey Stakes win a year ago.

          The Tips

          Here are the top picks in each race, courtesy of the UK’s At The Races betting guide handicappers.

          Race 1 | #8 Legend of Xanadu
          Race 2 | #8 Monaadah
          Race 3 | #3 Hurricane Lane
          Race 4 | #24 Sacred
          Race 5 | #25 Fresh
          Race 6 | #7 Falling Shadow
          Race 7 | #11 Wordsworth
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 358322

            #20
            AI Picks: Monmouth's Haskell Preview Day | Saturday

            June 17, 2022 | By 1/ST BET

            Monmouth Park has its “Haskell Preview Day” this Saturday with a quartet of stakes steppingstones to next month’s summer headliner. To assist your handicapping, top selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

            You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

            Monmouth Park // Race 11 // 4:47 pm ET // G3 Eatontown Stakes

            #8 Fluffy Socks (3-1) // 28%W
            #7 Lemista (4-1) // 20%W
            #6 Princess Grace (7-2) // 20%W
            #1 Vigilantes Way (7-2) // 8%W

            Monmouth Park // Race 12 // 5:19 pm ET // Pegasus Stakes

            #7 Dash Attack (7-2) // 26%W
            #4 Electability (9-5) // 21%W
            #3 Mr Jefferson (6-1) // 14%W
            #2 Home Brew (3-1) // 11%W

            Monmouth Park // Race 13 // 5:47 pm ET // G3 Monmouth Stakes

            #6 Sacred Life (3-1) // 25%W
            #3 Public Sector (7-2) // 18%W
            #7 Safe Conduct (15-1) // 9%W
            #10 Oceans Map (20-1) // 9%W

            Monmouth Park // Race 14 // 6:15 pm ET // G3 Salvator Mile

            #3 Hot Rod Charlie (4-5) // 30%W
            #4 Shirl’s Speight (6-1) // 17%W
            #1 Mind Control (3-1) // 15%W
            #6 Confessor (30-1) // 13%W
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 358322

              #21
              Race of the Week: Santa Maria at Santa Anita | Saturday, June 18

              June 15, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

              The Lead:
              Closing weekend of the 2021-'22 Santa Anita winter-spring meeting is upon us, and The Great Race Place goes out with a bang. A trio of stakes races Saturday lead into a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 on Sunday, a pool that could be in the $3-$4 million range. Saturday's main event in Race 7 is the Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes, and it re-matches a quartet of runners from April's Santa Margarita.

              ​Field Depth:
              Grade 1 winner and Grade 1-placed VARDA has high credentials. BLUE STRIPE and PRIVATE MISSION are Grade 2 winners. LADY MYSTIFY is a Grade 3 winner, but may be exiting the strongest company lines.

              Pace:
              Speedburner PRIVATE MISSION and front-runner LADY MYSTIFY ensure a fast pace, while BYE BYE BERTIE should be close up. The other trio will bide its time. There's certainly enough pace in this 1-1/16 miles heat to think a late-runner could get the last call.

              Our Eyes:
              BLUE STRIPE was highly impressive in running down even-money favorite Miss Bigly in the Santa Margarita over 1-1/8 miles. She'll get even more pace to rally into in this spot given the combatants, so the shorter trip by 1/16th of a mile does not concern. If you saw her June 9 workout at XBTV.com, you'd have fallen in love with the finish and massive gallop-out. Marcelo Polanco has the Argentine import in peak fettle right now.

              PRIVATE MISSION is brilliantly fast, and she's fresh from a March layoff and the new face to the Santa Margarita returnees. She's sprinted in her last 2, but note the last time she went sprint-to-route she won Del Mar's Grade 3 Torrey Pines in beast mode. Watching her workouts at XBTV, however, she pulled early on the rider and didn't finish with much flair, pulling up too easily in the gallop-out for my liking. I see her getting into a pace tussle with LADY MYSTIFY, and I much preferred the look of LADY'S MYSTIFY's morning move June 11. Also with LADY MYSTIFY, consider names like Malathaat, Bonny South, Ce Ce and Pauline's Pearl in her running lines in her last 3 starts. Any one of those would be favored in this race.

              VARDA, a Sean McCarthy (ex-Bob Baffert) stablemate of PRIVATE MISSION, may have the most license to improve off her Santa Margarita third. She was kept unnecessarily wide in that one and should be a bit sharper on pedigree for this shorter trip than last time. Like PRIVATE MISSION, however, I wasn't enamored with the way she galloped-out in her workout June 5.

              Most Certain Exotics Contender:
              BLUE STRIPE gets the set-up and just beat many of these.

              Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
              VARDA was 9-1 in the Santa Margarita and will be the longer-price of the McCarthy barnmates with a shot to give some exotics price boost.

              Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
              Nothing fancy, let's go on the nose with $100 win BLUE STRIPE. Single her in the multi-race wagers.
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 358322

                #22
                Al Cimaglia: Mohawk Mandatory Payout-Jackpot Hi-5 Analysis

                June 18, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

                Besides the star-studded card at Woodbine Mohawk Park tonight there is a mandatory Jackpot Hi-5 Payout in Race 13. The carryover is a hefty $548,692.73 which should attract a great deal of betting interest. My strategy will be to use 2 horses underneath who are not chalks and hope for a solid price to land at the top of the ticket.

                Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

                Race 13-Mandatory Jackpot Hi-5 Payout

                1-Rockin N Talkin (9/2)-This will be one of my keys to use underneath. Looking for Filion to have in the mix in a rare start from the inside. Counting on a big try but not a winning effort.

                3-Pointomygranson (8-1)-It would be a surprise if this veteran won but not a complete shock. Likes the track and JMac could keep in contention. More likely to get sucked around and hit toward the bottom of the Hi-5.

                4-Chapagne Phil (15-1)-Not saying Phil is going to be posing but he is like a few who can hang around and cash a check. The question will be if Moore can provide a decent steer to stay in contention. But the price will be right to use on the ticket.

                5-Century Fury (7/2)-Auciello trainee is 0-21 this year and has trouble finishing off miles but still rates as the 2nd morning line chalk. My guess is the price will be better than 7/2 and can't eliminate from the ticket.

                6-No Plan Intended (3-1)-Trying for its 4th straight picture and has won on the engine and coming off cover when the fractions were hot. Looks like a player once again.

                7-Yacht Seelster (6-1)-This will be my other key underneath, like #1. Wilder should find a live cover flow and work a stalking trip to hit the board.

                9-Lets Get Pickled (5-1)-Comes off a nice effort at Grand River, drops and fits well with this crew. Harris needs to work a sharp steer but has been a live play here versus similar.

                10-Outlawgrabbingears (10-1)-Has the gate speed to get a close-up seat and Henry could pull off an upset at a nice price. Has won 5 of 16 starts at Mohawk. Can bring one big move and needs to use it at the right time.

                Tossing the 2-8-11-12.

                0.20 Hi-5

                3,4,5,6,9,10/1,7/1,7/3,4,5,6,9,10/3,4,5,6,9,10
                Total Bet=$48

                3,4,5,6,9,10/1,7/3,4,5,6,9,10/1,7/3,4,5,6,9,10
                Total Bet=$48
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 358322

                  #23
                  North America Cup Analysis-$1,000,000 Purse

                  June 18, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

                  This year's North America Cup field is very talented and there are a few who could be on their way to having great careers. My take is the winner will come from one of the three morning line chalks: 5-Pebble Beach (8/5), 4-Beach Glass (3-1) and 7-Night Hawk (7/2).

                  Pebble Beach has looked so impressive from a sheer power standpoint and with a smooth trip he is the likely winner. But the favorite will be a short price and there is a possibility that Pebble Beach may have to work hard to get the lead. Going for a $1,000,000 purse it will be hardball all the way around. Todd McCarthy may not be able to get to the top early on and the skillful pilot will need to have this top colt in position to shine down the stretch. That very well could happen but it also sets-up an opportunity for those want to swing against the morning line chalk.

                  My choice will be to use Beach Glass on top and my tickets will have Night Hawk well represented as well. It's the 3rd start this season for Beach Glass and 2nd time Yannick Gingras, so the youngster could be sitting on the best race of his short career. According to reports from trainer Brent MacGrath he came out of the elimination in good shape and could be even better this time. Last week's effort from the 8-hole in only the 2nd start of the year left an impression.

                  Night Hawk offers some value and shouldn't be overlooked. My take is Dave Miller won't be trying to be as aggressive to get the lead as in the elimination but could be right there to roll by near the wire. If the fractions are hot and others battle throughout, don't discount Mr. Miller working the right trip to sweep by late.

                  The 1, 2, 3, 6 and 8 could be used for those playing Trifectas and Superfectas.

                  Comments below are based on a fast track.

                  Race 11-Pepsi North America Cup XXXIX Final-3-Year-Old Pacers

                  1-Fourever Boy (20-1)-This Tim Twaddle entry will be driven by Mike Wilder and hasn't taken a picture on a larger oval as both career wins came on the 5/8's at Pocono. Could catch a fortunate trip and hit the bottom of the Super but finishing higher doesn't appear likely.

                  2-I Did It Myway (8-1)-Andrew McCarthy gets the assignment as Tim Tetrick steers #10 and that is interesting because Tony Alagna trains this 3-year-old. That said, with a sharp steer this colt could add some juice to the gimmicks. Caught a great trip last week but couldn't tackle Beach Glass after a pocket ride. But best to respect chances to be in the hunt.

                  3-Ron (20-1)-A lack of early speed makes Ron trip dependent and would need some quick fractions. He can close in a hurry but there is some high-end talent in this field and would need a few breaks to earn a check. But with this post draw Jody Jamieson could be closer to the lead at the top of the lane.

                  4-Beach Glass (3-1)-Out of the last crop of Somebeachsomewhere and from the MacGrath stable this colt is just scratching the surface. Has only made 7 lifetime starts and has notched 4 wins and two 2nd place finishes. Yannick Gingras made his debut between the pipes last week and won an elimination from the 8-hole. His addition could make a significant difference and may offset this talented colts lack of experience.

                  5-Pebble Beach (8/5)-Winner in 9 of 14 lifetime is a perfect 2 for 2 at Wbsb and has a ton of talent. Todd McCarthy steers this Noel Daly pupil who is more seasoned than Beach Glass and Night Hawk. The one glitch in his armor is drifting out down the lane as was the case in both starts here but it didn't matter. Won in 149.4 last week and there appeared to be a lot left in the tank. There's no telling how fast he will go tonight, and the race goes through this son of Downbytheseaside.

                  6-Ario Hanover (10-1)-Sizzled the back half in 53.2 last week and now gets the services of Dexter Dunn. This Brian Brown trainee has only made 7 lifetime starts and could be a fine horse. Looks like an outsider to take top honors but might spice up the exotics.

                  7-Night Hawk (7/2)-The other Brown entry retains the services of David Miller and has a shot to take a picture. Has only made 2 starts on a larger oval but has a win and a 2nd place finish to show for it. What keeps this son of Betting Line in the mix is his early speed and could leave to get an up-close seat. This will be a big test but best to not overlook, has 5 wins in 7 starts and has never been worse than 2nd.

                  8-Kolby Two Step (15-1)-The post draw gods didn't do Kolby any favors starting from post 8 last week and post 9 tonight. James MacDonald grabs the lines and this Betterthancheddar colt should be motoring down the lane. The issue will be how far away from the leader will this longshot be turning for the wire?

                  9-Frozen Hanover (20-1)-This Luc Blais pupil gets the services of Louis Roy but appears to be in too tough. Has some early foot and could leave but it is doubtful that plan works versus this crew.

                  10-Mad Max Hanover (15-1)-Tetrick lands here by choice and this Jake Leamon trainee appears better on a shorter oval. Competitive sort usually is in the mix at the wire and would have a different opinion if drew inside. But from this starting slot, even with Tetrick doing the steering, hitting the board doesn't seem like a likelihood.

                  NA-Market Based-Nancy Takter trainee is eligible if there is a scratch, and would be a longshot versus this crew. Has big speed but looks to be better suiter on a 5/8's oval.
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 358322

                    #24
                    Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Workout Commentary - 6-18-22

                    June 18, 2022

                    “What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
                    By Jeff Siegel, Handicapper & Analyst


                    Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
                    *
                    The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.

                    The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

                    Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

                    For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

                    *
                    *
                    Grade Descriptions:
                    Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
                    Grade B=Solid Play.
                    Grade C=Least preferred or pass
                    Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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                    RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
                    Single: 4-Flintmore

                    Forecast: Flintmore lost a toughie in a similar maiden-special-weight affair over this course and distance last month but earned a career top speed figure in the process and has worked extremely well since, so we’re expecting the P. D’Amato-trained gelding to finally break through and graduate in career start number six. The switch to U. Rispoli won’t hurt, so in a race that projects to have soft early splits the son of Flintshire should be on or near the lead throughout. At 2-1 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

                    Notable Workouts:

                    Kazawaki (May 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.1h TT). Grade: C+
                    Broke off a couple of lengths behind Henley’s Joy (5f, 1:02.3h TT) and was ridden through the lane to finish about a length back at the wire, not really impressive (‘Joy was breezing and waiting for workmate and was much best). Irish invader ran well in only outing in February but perhaps isn’t quite fit yet based on this drill (note: this workout took place in early May, gelding subsequently was sent to train at San Luis Rey Downs and recorded three workouts since).
                    View Workout Video


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                    RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
                    Use (in order of preference): 6-Cinnamon Cat; 1-Spooky Lady

                    Forecast: This could be a stronger than par maiden special weight sprint for fillies and mares depending upon whether a pair of hot-shot first-timers run to their workouts. Cinnamon Cat gets a very slight edge on top because of her cozy outside draw, and while the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile may eventually prove best at a longer distance she should be good enough to be a major player in this six furlong main track sprint. The barn doesn’t have good stats with debut runners, but this filly has trained like she is plenty fit and ready. Spooky Lady drew the dreaded rail, but if she breaks cleanly the inside draw won’t be an issue. A daughter of Ghostzapper with a series of strong drills for a stable that has excellent stats with newcomers, she is the 2-1 morning line favorite, and it will be interesting to see if and how much she gets hammered. We’ll play it safe and include both in our rolling exotics.

                    Notable Workouts:

                    Spooky Lady (May 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
                    May have been a tad best inside Fun to Dream (same time) while working from the half mile pole out to the seven-furlong pole, splits of :12.2, :24.1, :48.1 and 1:00.2, never really asked much in steady, even drill. Good-moving daughter of Ghostzapper acts like a decent type and seems fairly fit for S. McCarthy.
                    View Workout Video

                    Charlotte Harbor (June 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.4h). Grade: B-
                    In blinkers, urged hard through the lane to record fast time while even outside Salta (same time) for K. Desormeaux, final three furlongs in :11.1 and :35.1. Okay work, perhaps not as good as final time might indicate.
                    View Workout Video

                    Cinnamon Cat (May 28, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4hg). Grade: B
                    Mostly in hand outside Wishing On a Star (same time) for M. McCarthy, splits of :24.2, :36.1, :48 flat and 1:00.3 on our watches, quite nice while able to go faster if turned loose. Moves like a decent sort, probably not a quick type but definitely has at least some quality.
                    View Workout Video


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                    RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
                    Use (in order of preference): 2-Stone Silent; 5-Tom’s Regret; 1-E Z Pharis

                    Forecast : The first West Coast stakes race for juveniles marks the debut of the very quick and promising Stone Silent (TOC=5-1; ML=6-1), who may prove to be a good gamble at 6-1 on the morning line. The J. Sadler-trained filly previewed in a blazing 20 4/5 seconds at the OBS March Sale, after which she brought $410,000 through the ring, a ton of money for a daughter of Adios Charlie, whose stud fee is listed at $4,000. Locally, she has done everything asked while appearing to be a two-year-old with quality, so line let’s go with the fresh face while trying to beat Tom’s Regret (TOC=2-1; ML=6/5), the logical favorite seeking to extend her perfect streak to three. The J. Periban-trained daughter of Tom’s Tribute graduated by a pole in her debut here in April and then verified the performance by capturing the Kentucky Juvenile S. at Churchill Downs during Derby week. Back home with three solid works to tick her over, she will take some catching. E Z Pharis (TOC=5-1; ML=3-1) graduated with authority in late April from slightly off the pace, and if the leaders go too fast in the opening stages, she will have every chance to pick them up. The rail is no bargain but with clear sailing she should make some series noise late.
                    Notable Workouts:

                    Stone Silent (June 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2hg). Grade: B+
                    Solo gate work for J. Sadler, never asked at any stage while earning splits of :23.4, :35.2, :47.3 and 1:00.2, quite nice for unraced juvenile filly. Cost $410,000 in the OBS March Sale after showing plenty of zip (:20 4/5 seconds) during the preview session. Have to think she’ll be tough to outrun in her debut.
                    View Workout Video


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                    RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B
                    Use (in order of preference): 4-Annie’s Song; 3-Fluent

                    Forecast: Annie’s Song (TOC=4/5; ML=8/5) drops into an expensive seller for the first time after coming up short when fourth in a first-level allowance turf sprint down the hill last month. She’s a fit on numbers and can be dangerous on the front end or from a stalking position. Additionally, the analytics love her. Fluent (TOC=7/2; ML=5/2) got burned up stalking a hot pace in a tougher spot in her most recent appearance but like our top selection should regain her best form in a race that projects to have a much softer pace flow. She earned a big figure when graduating over the flat course two runs back when she was able to establish a clear lead and similar tactics certainly will be employed today. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Annie’s Song.


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                    RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: C+
                    Use (in order of preference): 6-Beignet; 1-So Softly

                    Forecast: The form in her first two races looks awful, but this massive class drop from maiden special weight to bottom-rung maiden $20,000 could make a world of difference to Beignet, an Empire Maker filly who has worked a whole lot better than she’s run so far (see below). Perhaps against this group she’ll will have found her friends. So Softly is an eight-race maiden and not one to trust, but she has finished in the money in half of her starts and from the rail she might get loose on the lead and never look back. In a race that is probably best left alone, we’ll try to survive and advance using just two in rolling exotic play.
                    Notable Workouts:

                    Beignet (June 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B-
                    Not bad for a maiden-claiming type, inside Squillions (same time) for P. Gallagher and staying even with that one while working from the half mile pole to the seven furlong pole, coaxed through the lane, splits of :23.1, :47.2 (to the wire) and 1:00 flat on our watches. Form in two maiden special weight starts is dreadful but against soft foes she should improve a bunch.
                    View Workout Video


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                    RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B-
                    Use (in order of preference): 2-Havana Love; 6-Big Sweep; 3-Amy C

                    Forecast : This allowance optional claiming Hillside turf sprint for fillies and mares offers several chances and thus requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Havana Love (TOC=6-1; ML=3-1) ran a winning race in her local bow when second over the flat course and if she duplicates that effort down the hill she will be the one to beat. A quality performer in Italy prior to importation, the D. O’Neill-trained filly continues to impress in the morning, retains leading pilot J. Hernandez, and is listed as the co-second choice on the morning line at 3-1. Big Sweep (TOC=8/5; ML=5/2) finished a nose behind our top pick when third in that race in late May. She removes blinkers (love that angle), has excellent form over this tricky course and always has been genuine and consistent (in the frame in 12 of 13 career starts). With an ideal stalking style that will keep her free of trouble, the M. Glatt-trained daughter of Mr. Big is the one to fear most at 5/2 on the morning line. Amy C (TOC=5-1; ML=3-1) turns back to a sprint for the first time since beating maidens in France last year, and at this shorter trip she could produce a significant late kick. She is exiting three successive stakes races and surely will appreciate this easier competition.

                    Notable Workouts:

                    Havana Love (June 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: B
                    Went much faster than given and looked sharp as usual for D. O’Neill while besting Peanut Butter Cup (3f, :37hg, actually went in :35.2, decent move), splits of :23.4, :35.1, :47.1 and :59.3 before coasting to the wire in 1:14 flat on our watches. Has second level allowance conditions, prefers turf, and maintains her edge.
                    View Workout Video

                    Amy C (June 5, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h TT). Grade: B
                    Never really asked while outside Cathkin Peak (5f, 1:00.4h TT), breaking off more than a length behind and finishing a neck back at the wire to receive faster final time but actually appearing second best, splits of :23.4, :35.4, and 1:00.2 on our watches, useful drill for P. D’Amato. Was overmatched in Wilshire S.-G3 in her comeback, has conditions and probably should use them.
                    View Workout Video

                    Big Sweep (June 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.2h). Grade: B
                    Shadow roll but no blinkers, broke off several lengths behind City Rage (4f, :47.4h) while going easily to the top, then was asked pretty good through the lane (late changing leads) and couldn’t catch workmate, splits of :12.1, :24.2 and :47.2 on our watches. Decent work for M. Glatt, maintains her form.
                    View Workout Video


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                    RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: A-
                    Single: 3-Blue Stripe

                    Forecast: Blue Stripe (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2) was a thoroughly convincing winner of the Santa Margarita S.-G1 in late April and actually has trained even better since, so we’re expecting the Argentine-bred mare to come right back and do it again. She has enough tactical speed to stay within range and then can kick home when called upon, and in a race in which the pace projects to be faster than par she should have every chance to blow on by when given here cue. At 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

                    View Santa Maria Stakes Video Analysis

                    Notable Workouts:

                    Lady Mystify (June 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B
                    Never really asked while finishing with interest through the lane in solo main track drill for P. Eurton, final quarter mile in :25.1. Been on the road but likes this track and seems in good shape.
                    View Workout Video

                    Blue Stripe (June 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: A-
                    Went off slowly (:12.4, :24.4) to the top, then stormed home without being asked, :36 flat and 1:00.1 to the wire before galloping out full of run to the seven furlong pole, up in 1:12.4. Couldn’t have looked better, Santa Margarita win was no fluke.
                    View Workout Video

                    Private Mission (June 11, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h). Grade: B+
                    Excellent solo main track drill for S. McCarthy, under a tight hold early (12.1, :24 flat, :35.3 to the top), then continued strongly through the lane without being asked, up in :59.4 before being allowed to gallop out to the seven furlong pole in 1:13.1. Seems to be coming back to her best form based on this drill.
                    View Workout Video


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                    RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B
                    Use (in order of preference): 3-Gold Phoenix; 4-Cathkin Peak

                    Forecast: Trainer Phil D’Amato has two main players in this second-level allowance turf event over nine furlongs and it will be surprising if the winner isn’t one of them. Gold Phoenix (TOC=9/5; ML=5/2), a respectable third in the Whittingham S.-G2 in late April when earning a career top speed figure, tackles an easier group today and seems reasonably solid. Never off the board in five career starts, the Irish-bred gelding doesn’t have a massive turn of foot but should be close throughout and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Stable mate Cathkin Peak (TOC=3-1; ML=3-1), a strong third in the Hollywood Derby-G1 at Del Mar in November, returns with series of healthy workouts that should have him primed and ready off the bench. A first time Lasix user who has won off a layoff in the past, the Irish-bred 4-year-old can turn it on late and should make his presence felt when the pressure is turned on. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with Gold Phoenix getting a slight nod on top.

                    Notable Workouts

                    Gold Phoenix (June 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h TT). Grade: B
                    Just galloping to the top inside Macadamia (same time), then was asked a bit and was slightly second best to the wire, final quarter in :23.4, decent move for Irish-bred gelding who always has been a bit lazy in the a.m. Ran very well in Whittingham S.-G2 to be a close third, holds that edge, still has second level allowance conditions.
                    View Workout Video

                    Cathkin Peak (June 5, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: B+
                    Inside Amy C (5f, 1:00.3h TT), breaking off in front and holding sway through the lane with plenty left (workmate asked, closed the gap but was second best), final quarter mile in :24.3. Finished third in the Hollywood Derby-G1 at Del Mar last November and appears to be coming back just as well if not better. Has fired fresh in the past and still has second level allowance conditions.
                    View Workout Video

                    Planetario (June 2, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:29.2h). Grade: B-
                    Main track drill, proved best inside Caisson (6f, 1:16.4h), leaving that one in the final furlong while being ridden a bit, splits of :24.3, :49.4 and 1:02.3 on our watches from the half mile pole to the seven furlong pole. Form in Brazil on grass was quite good (probably much better on the lawn) but we’d tend to want to see one first on this circuit for R. Mandella.
                    View Workout Video


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                    RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade:
                    Single: 8-Pyeong Chang

                    Forecast: Pyeong Chang (TOC=3/5; ML=5/2) has much in his favor in this extended sprint for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 older claimers. Comfortably drawn outside, the lightly-raced gelding set torrid fractions and paid for it late when nailed on the line in a $25,000 affair last month, but today he won’t have go nearly as fast to be on or near the lead throughout. With a very nice training track breeze to tick him over (see below), he should have no excuses today and represents wagering value at 5/2 on the morning line.
                    Notable Workouts:

                    Thirsty Always (June 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B-
                    Was niggled at through the lane and came the final half mile in :23 flat and :48.4, fast early but slowing up late. Was hoping for a bit better finish but drill is hard to knock for a moderate claimer.
                    View Workout Video

                    Pyeong Chang (June 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.3h TT). Grade: B
                    Easy to the top and then finished nicely through the lane in solo training track drill for J. Mullins, final three furlongs in :12.3 and :36.3. Lightly-raced and has some improvement in him.
                    View Workout Video


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                    RACE 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B
                    Use (in order of preference: 1-Moody Jim; 5-Liberal

                    Forecast: Moody Jim (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1) will be the controlling speed if such a strategy is employed (and likely will be), and given a front-running trip from his favorable rail post the J. Mullins-trained gelding should have every chance to wire the field. Fourth behind subsequent Hollywood Gold Cup-G1 winner There Goes Harvard in a similar allowance race last month, the Irish-bred gelding won’t have anything that good to worry about today and shouldn’t miss the opportunity to register his first win since January. A sharp recent training track breeze (see below) tells us he’s spot on. Liberal (TOC=9/2; ML=7/2) is shortened to his much preferred trip (a mile) and is the most dangerous of the closing types. A three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the veteran Irish-bred gelding shows solid recent races, and with a little bit of help up front could be dangerous late.

                    Notable Workouts:

                    Moody Jim (June 1, 5f, 1:00.3h TT). Grade: B
                    Looked solid through the lane in solo training track drill for J. Mullins, splits of :24.4, :37 flat and 1:00.2, quick in the final stages without being asked. Has his speed, might be able to come home better next time based on this drill.
                    View Workout Video


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                    RACE 11: Post: 6:13 PT Grade: B+
                    Use (in order of preference): 3-Absolutely Zero; 2-Pure Fire

                    Forecast: Absolutely Zero (TOC=9/5; ML=8/5) is a filly tackling the boys in this year’s edition of the Fasig-Tipton Futurity. Not sure why the barn opted for this race rather than the filly division earlier on the program, especially when you consider that her trainer D. O’Neill has the promising Justify colt Tahoma (TOC=10-1; ML=5/2) in this field as well. At any rate, she belongs on top after a visually pleasing debut win by almost two lengths from slightly off the pace while giving clear indication that the farther they go, the better she’ll be. A sharp recent half mile breeze (see below) provides further evidence that the daughter of Nyquist is ready to step forward big time. Stranger danger is provided by the first-timer Pure Fire (TOC=9/2; ML=10-1), a Practical Joke colt that brought $315,000 at the OBS March sale after blasting a quarter mile during the preview session in 21 seconds. The issue with this J. Sadler-trained colt is his inability to leave quickly from the gate (see workout below). If he breaks sharply, he’ll have a strong pace presence and likely will be very competitive, so at 10-1 on the morning line he’s worth including somewhere on your ticket.

                    Notable Workouts:

                    Pure Fire (June 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2hg). Grade: B
                    Broke terribly, rushed up to engage workmate Storming Machine (same time) after the opening furlong and then went nicely without being asked much, splits of :24.4, :36.2, :48.1 and 1:01.3 while slightly best when eased up after five furlongs. Definitely can run but needs to learn how to break. Potentially a real quick type.
                    View Workout Video

                    Absolutely Zero (June 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h TT). Grade: B+
                    Picked her up at the three furlong pole, did nicely while mostly on her own and finishing with some power, :36.2 on our watches. Daughter of Nyquist has some quality and seems very likely to improve as the distances increase.
                    View Workout Video


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                    RACE 12: Post: 6:43 PT Grade: B-
                    Use (in order of preference): 9-Minister Shane; 3-Bang for Your Buck; 10-Ntlongerahobby

                    Forecast: The finale is a mile turf raffle for Cal-bred first-level allowance older horses. Minister Shane (TOC=5-1; ML=4-1) owns numbers that fit nicely with these, and with only seven career starts he has room for improvement that most of the others don’t. This will be his first try around two turns, but based on pedigree and running style he should handle the stretch-out in trip just fine. Bang for Your Buck (TOC=5/2; ML=7/2) is just 1-for-14, but at least his win came over the local lawn and he has finished in the money in four of his five. Possibly best last time out over this course and distance, the B. Heap-trained 5-year-old will be doing his best work late with good racing luck may get up in time. Nolongerahobby (TOC=5-1; ML=20-1) gets the worst of the draw in 10-hole and always has preferred to run second or third (18 times) rather than win, but he may inherit the role as the controlling speed, so at 20-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 358322

                      #25
                      Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

                      Hawthorne - Race #7
                      Picks Notes
                      #4 Coyote Road He hasn't really been hard-pressed in either of his wins so far, and he's not out of the question here if he's able to take another step forward in just this third lifetime start.
                      #3 W W Crazy Don't think he has quite as high a ceiling as some of these, but he was a good second with similar last time out, and he should be one of the more obvious potential finishing threats.
                      #2 Race Driver He's been doing his work on synthetic footing, so he is a little bit of a question mark on the local dirt, but he has room to be tighter here after fading off the bench.
                      Race Summary Coyote Road has done nothing wrong through two starts, and I'm hoping there is still a bit more room for him to grow this early in his career. Would feel pretty happy at anything like the 6/1 ML price.

                      Hawthorne - Race #8
                      Picks Notes
                      #2 Let's Cruise Aptly named filly has been a menace on the front end since moving around two turns, and she'll try the turf in a spot where she isn't meeting a ton of other pace. Guessing she can have some fun on the engine.
                      #8 Curly Ruth She'll get into an easier spot after trying Grade III company at Churchill, but I do wonder if she's going to get a bit overbet on the drop.
                      #1 Bellagamba She was knocking on the door with some good groups at Fair Grounds, and she'd certainly benefit if the top choice went way too fast early.
                      Race Summary Let's Cruise has flashed sharp pace since moving to route trips, and she offers some interest here if she manages to handle the turf. She should be good for a thrill either way.

                      Hawthorne - Race #10
                      Picks Notes
                      #7 Mr. Peterkin He's a reliable finishing type who ran pretty well in the types of races that can be on the tougher side for the level in New Orleans, and she's a good fit with this group from midpack.
                      #5 Kanithappen He has run okay on the turf in the past despite the 0-for-8 career slate, and he should be able to flash some pace today -- not totally sold that's the place to be in this one.
                      #8 Froome He has some price appeal from off the pace if the forward players hook up, as he has occasionally been able to settle and finish with the type of effort that could land this.
                      Race Summary Mr. Peterkin looks the part while likely settled midpack behind the splits, as there looks to be enough pace to let someone land this from off the speed.
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 358322

                        #26
                        Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

                        Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #11
                        Picks Notes
                        #5 PEBBLE BEACH Sustained first-over rally in impressive ‘Cup’ elimination victory.
                        #8 KOLBY TWO STEP Wide advance on turn, willing finish, use in all gimmick wagers.
                        #4 BEACH GLASS Power rush to lead from post 8, kept odds-on pocket sitter at bay.
                        Race Summary Pebble Beach served notice that he is the horse to beat in the $1 million Pepsi North America Cup when he won his elimination in 1:49.4. He was flushed out of fourth in the third quarter, quickly engaged 3-to-2 pace setter Night Hawk and wore down that rival for a 1-1/2-length victory with something in reserve. Play a 5,8/4,5,8/ALL trifecta.

                        Yonkers - Race #2
                        Picks Notes
                        #2 DARK ENERGY N Ultra-consistent form, better post, can return quick claim dividend.
                        #1 LYONS LIBERTY Tired in follow-up to ‘strong finish’ at this level, price goes up.
                        #4 BARBADOS Has loyal following, caught top one for 25th victory.
                        Race Summary Dark Energy N bid first-over to a brief lead and finished second through a :56.4 back half. He rallies into contention week after week, now starts closer inside. Play 2-1 and 2-4 exactas.

                        Meadowlands - Race #10
                        Picks Notes
                        #2 BETTORS DONTTELL Returns home, where he blazed to 1:47.3 and 1:49.4 repeat.
                        #6 LET IT RIDE N Travels well, loves to win, versatility comes in handy.
                        #7 VETTEL N Solid numbers, piles up the checks, starts outside.
                        Race Summary Bettors Donttell chased the 2-1 winner through a :54.2 back half and finished second in the Graduate Stakes at Woodbine-Mohawk Park. He’s in a great spot to utilize his speed and is well worth the 4-1 morning=line price. Bet to win and place.
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 358322

                          #27
                          Belmont Park Picks for June 18, 2022 – Horse Racing Betting Tips

                          By Kyle E in Horse Racing — Jun 18th, 2022 2:41am PDT

                          Belmont Park Picks for June 18, 2022 – Horse Racing Betting Tips

                          The horse racing grind continues this weekend throughout America and overseas in the UK. Ascot Week continues overseas in Europe, with the biggest racing occurring on Saturday. Bobby Flay-owned Pizza Bianca is the most interesting American runner.
                          Stakes Racing In The US
                          There are plenty of stakes options, but you aren’t going to find Ascot events. The $250,000 Poker Stakes (Gr. 3) at Belmont Park is the biggest stakes action in the US.

                          Our first look on the card is at Belmont Park in New York. Belmont has ten races worth $805,000, six on the turf and four on the dirt. Head below for our best Belmont Park picks on June 18, 2022.
                          Rank
                          Betting Site
                          Bonus Bet Now
                          1FantasyDraft Logo FantasyDraft

                          FantasyDraft
                          Free Entry up to $4 Go to Site
                          Race 3
                          (1) Uptown Hustler
                          +350 (7/2)
                          (2) Streaming Tap
                          +1500 (15/1)
                          (3) Irie Spice
                          +3000 (30/1)
                          (4) Super Quality
                          +800 (8/1)
                          (5) Naked and Famous
                          +400 (4/1)
                          (6) Dads Good Runner
                          +450 (9/2)
                          (7) Rugged Union
                          +400 (4/1)
                          (8) King of Sting
                          +800 (8/1)
                          (9) Starrystarryknight
                          +600 (6/1)
                          (10) Marco Polo
                          +1000 (10/1)
                          (11) Jimmy the Boot
                          +800 (8/1)

                          Post Time:2:00 p.m. EST

                          Distance: 6 Furlongs

                          Purse: $45,000

                          Race 3 is a $45,000 event covering 6 furlongs on the turf. Rugged Union and Uptown Hustler should have a big chance in this one.

                          Rugged Union has finished 8th, 8th, 6th in three events. He is coming off some tough work and should appreciate these easier assignments.

                          In his last start, Rugged Union finished 8th for a $90,000 event on May 1. That was after finishing 8th in an $80,000 event.

                          A class drop should help Rugged Union well. Uptown Hustler finished 6th on his debut April 23. That didn’t go the best in a $100,000 event at Keeneland. That was an ambitious first start for Uptown Hustler.

                          A transfer to Belmont for a $45,000 event should help nicely. His workouts have gone well and he should be dangerous at this level.
                          Best Bet
                          (1) UPTOWN HUSTLER
                          +350
                          Place Bet Now!
                          Race 6
                          (1) Masen
                          +120 (6/5)
                          (2) Sanctuary City
                          +350 (7/2)
                          (3) Penalty
                          +600 (6/1)
                          (4) Public Sector
                          +250 (5/2)
                          (5) Wolfie’s Dynaghost
                          +500 (5/1)

                          Post Time: 3:27 p.m. EST
                          Distance:1 Mile
                          Purse:$250,000

                          Race 6 is the most notable event, with the $250,000 Poker Stakes (Gr. 3) running on the turf. It’s a small field with five horses taking to the turf. This is likely a Public Sector and Masen Poker Stakes.

                          Public Sector is 5 for 11 and has been involved in some tough races. He’s finished 6th, 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st in five assignments.

                          The colt won back-to-back Grade 3 and Grade 2 races from September 4 to October 23. He most recently won the $400,000 Hill Prince Stakes (Gr. 2) on October 23.

                          Since then, Public Sector finished 4th in the $400,000 Hollywood Derby (Gr. 1) on November 27, 2021. In his latest trip, he finished 6th in the $1,000,000 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes (Gr. 1) on May 7 at Churchill Downs.

                          Masen is 4 for 8 and has won three of his previous four outings. The British-bred gelding is 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, with his recent US debut in April.

                          He placed 2nd behind Shirl’s Speight by a nose in the $600,000 Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes (Gr. 1). Masen returned on May 22 to beat Duke of Hazzard by 5 lengths in the $100,000 Seek Again Stakes.

                          If Masen repeats this effort, then he’s likely a winner in the Poker Stakes.
                          Best Bet
                          (1) MASEN
                          +120
                          Place Bet Now!

                          Race 8
                          (1) Musical America
                          +1000 (10/1)
                          (2) Prince James
                          +250 (5/2)
                          (3) Pioneer Spirit
                          +400 (4/1)
                          (4) Two Thirty Five
                          +300 (3/1)
                          (5) Chris and Dave
                          +450 (9/2)
                          (6) Air Attack
                          +600 (6/1)
                          (7) Lastchanceatglory
                          +800 (8/1)

                          Post Time:4:37 p.m. EST

                          Distance:1 1/16 Miles

                          Purse: $66,000

                          Race 8 is a $66,000 event covering 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Two Thirty Five and Prince James should be in good shape for the eighth at Belmont Stakes.

                          Two Thirty Five is 10 for 45 and should have a decent chance to get a win on Saturday. He’s 1st, 2nd, 5th in his previous three attempts, with a repeat possible.

                          In his latest race, he beat Crypto Cash by 3
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 358322

                            #28
                            The Pony Conductor

                            Belmont Park: Late Pick 6 and Pick 5 Carryover Saturday Key Horses

                            Race 5: #3 Holiday Jazz (9/2), #5 Thegoddessofsnakes (8/1)

                            Race 6: #1 Masen (6/5)

                            Race 7: #1 Credit Event (7/2), #3 Fighter in the Win (5/1), #7 Castle Leoch (15/1), #8 Dripping Gold (6/1), #9 Icarus (8/1)

                            Race 8: *Pony of the Day #6 Air Attack (6/1)

                            Race 9: #1 Giramonte (20/1), #7 Missionatthespa (9/2), #8 Veterens Beach (10/1)

                            Race 10: #1 Forwardly (7/2), #5 Remote (9/2), #6 Acamar (8/1)
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 358322

                              #29
                              F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ruidoso Downs
                              PURCHASE
                              Ruidoso Downs - Race 1

                              1st Half Early Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / .10 Superfecta


                              Maiden • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 88 • Purse: $9,300 • Post: 1:00P
                              QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 126 LBS. (RAINBOW DERBY ELIGIBLES PREFERRED).
                              Contenders

                              Race Analysis
                              P#
                              Horse
                              Morn
                              Line

                              Accept
                              Odds


                              Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SPANISH STEPS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KREEDE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of th e gate fast. EARTHQUAKE MCGOON: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. BACSHEESH: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation.
                              7
                              SPANISH STEPS
                              7/2

                              5/1
                              8
                              KREEDE
                              9/2

                              7/1
                              5
                              EARTHQUAKE MCGOON
                              10/1

                              7/1
                              3
                              BACSHEESH
                              10/1

                              8/1
                              10
                              STUFFINYOURPOCKETS
                              20/1

                              9/1




                              P#

                              Horse (In Running Style Order)

                              Post

                              Morn
                              Line

                              Running Style

                              Good
                              Class

                              Good
                              Speed

                              Early Figure

                              Finish Figure

                              Platinum
                              Figure
                              1
                              PILOT POINT PEAK
                              1

                              3/1
                              Fast
                              77

                              75

                              3.3

                              0.0

                              0.0
                              2
                              RC 3
                              2

                              15/1
                              Fast
                              76

                              64

                              3.3

                              0.0

                              0.0
                              3
                              BACSHEESH
                              3

                              10/1
                              Fast
                              88

                              77

                              3.3

                              0.0

                              0.0
                              5
                              EARTHQUAKE MCGOON
                              5

                              10/1
                              Average
                              86

                              80

                              4.9

                              0.0

                              0.0
                              6
                              LADY QUIC CARTEL
                              6

                              8/1
                              Average
                              78

                              65

                              0.0

                              0.0

                              0.0
                              7
                              SPANISH STEPS
                              7

                              7/2
                              Average
                              94

                              87

                              3.6

                              0.0

                              0.0
                              8
                              KREEDE
                              8

                              9/2
                              Fast
                              91

                              79

                              3.5

                              0.0

                              0.0
                              9
                              THISGIRLSAGOLDDIGGER
                              9

                              4/1
                              Average
                              75

                              72

                              5.7

                              0.0

                              0.0
                              10
                              STUFFINYOURPOCKETS
                              10

                              20/1
                              Slow
                              83

                              83

                              7.0

                              0.0

                              0.0








                              Unknown Running Style: ONE JETTIN CORONA (15/1) [Jockey: Corral Damian - Trainer: Riddle Jackie E].
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                              Comment

                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 358322

                                #30
                                Rk Sports Services Free Sports Picks
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                                5. VegasSI.com NHL – Avalanche -150
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                                7. Henry Brown Sports MLB – Diamondbacks +105
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                                19. South Beach Sports MLB – Athletics -110
                                20. Las Vegas Sports Commission MLB – Braves -175
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                                22. Fred Callahan MLB – Astros -1.5
                                23. Las Vegas Private CEO Club MLB – Red Sox under 9.5
                                24. Michigan Sports NHL – Avalanche -150
                                25. National Consensus Report NHL – Avalanche under 6
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