Monday 7/11/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

Jul 11 '22, 7:10 PM in 2h
MLB | White Sox vs Guardians

Play on: Guardians +102 at circa

Right-hander Cal Quantrill (4-5, 3.86 ERA) will open Cleveland's eight-game homestand, to be opposed by right-hander Lance Lynn (1-1, 5.33). The Guardians are 4-1 against the White Sox this season, 3-0 in Cleveland during this current campaign. Chicago is batting .174 in Cleveland and has been outscored 32-18 in the five games. The White Sox own a 4.09 ERA against the Guardians. Rinse and repeat on board.
CLEVELAND is 15-4 against the money line in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season this season. CLEVELAND is 13-3 against the money line in home games with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) this season.
MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CLEVELAND) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a losing team are 40-18 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.
Play on Cleveland to win

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Jul 11 '22, 7:15 PM in 2h
MLB | Phillies vs Cardinals

Play on: Cardinals +103 at circa

Jack's Free Pick Monday: St. Louis Cardinals +103
The St. Louis Cardinals are showing great value as home underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. They need this win to even this series after dropping the first two games before winning Game 3 Sunday.
Miles Mikolas is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues. He has posted a 2.72 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including a 2.60 ERA and 0.865 WHIP in eight home starts.
Mikolas has allowed just 2 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Phillies. He'll be opposed by Aaron Nola, who has consistently been one of the most overrated starters in the big leagues.
The Phillies are just 22-27 (-14.5 Units) in Nola's 49 starts over the last two seasons. The Cardinals are 9-2 (+7.6 Units) in Mikolas' last 11 starts with a money line of +125 to -125. Bet the Cardinals Monday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Jul 11 '22, 7:15 PM in 2h
MLB | Phillies vs Cardinals

Play on: Phillies -115 at William Hill

1* Free Pick on Phillies -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jul 11 '22, 7:15 PM in 2h
MLB | Phillies vs Cardinals

Play on: Cardinals +110 at BetVegas

The Philadelphia Phillies took two of their three games with St Louis over the week, but dropped Sunday's contest, 3-4. Still, they have won five of their last seven games. Aaron Nola will start today with a 5-6 record in 17 starts and a aa3.15 ERA. He's been better on the road with a 2-4 record in eight starts and a 2.13 ERA. St Louis has lost six of their last eight games and that halted their assault on first place in the NL Central. The Cards are just 2.5 games back of the Brewers in the division. Miles Mikolas will start today for the Red Birds. Mikolas is 5-7 in his 17 starts with a nice 2.72 ERA. He's also allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. Getting the Cards as a home dog with Mikolas on the hill is a nice value dog I can't pass on. Your free play is on the Cardinals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tim Michael

Jul 11 '22, 7:15 PM in 2h
MLB | Phillies vs Cardinals

Play on: Phillies -114 at William Hill

T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Phillies.
I like the Philadelphia Phillies to win this game against the St Louis Cardinals on Monday. Aaron Nola (5-6, 3.15 ERA) is up for the Phillies here and he has been great all year but looks to be getting even better the deeper we get into this season. He has looked a bit shaky in his 2 most recent starts but he hasn't even pitched that badly, giving up no more than 4 runs in either start, and I think he will bounce back with an even better performance in this game. He has looked a lot better in his road starts too, giving up just 2 runs total in his 4 most recent road starts and pitching 7+ innings in all of those games. Miles Mikolas (5-7, 2.72 ERA) is up for the Cardinals here and he has been good this year but he hasn't looked great in his 4 most recent starts and I think he is going to have a bad start here. He hasn't had a start in his previous 4 where he gave up no runs and the Phillies have been getting a lot of chances to score with runners on base in this series. I expect them to cash in on those here if Mikolas keeps letting them get on base and the Cardinals haven't had much offense lately either to pull them out of any deficit they are in. I like the Phillies to win this game.
T.M. Prediction: 5-2 Phillies.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Jul 11 '22, 7:20 PM in 2h
MLB | NYM vs ATL

Play on: OVER 7 -119

1* Free Pick on Mets/Braves over 7 -119

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers

Jul 11 '22, 7:20 PM in 2h
MLB | Mets vs Braves

Play on: Braves -121 at linepros

Both teams have a great starter going today; Scherzer for the Mets, and lefty Fried for the Braves, so a close game is expected. The Braves’ offense is much the hotter of the two at the moment, while the Mets are on the road and struggle against left-handed pitching. While it doesn’t happen all that often, the Mets are 6-8 as a road underdog. Atlanta is 29-18 at home and hitting right-handers at a .300 clip lately. Both bullpens have been very fine.
The Braves are on a fine run, and momentum and home field are on their side. Take the favorite today. Atlanta to win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Jul 11 '22, 7:20 PM in 2h
MLB | Mets vs Braves

Play on: Mets +108 at Caesars

Dave's Monday Free Play:
1* on New York Mets +108
The Key: I like the price we are getting on the New York Mets tonight. It's rare that you get the chance to back Max Scherzer as a dog. He is 5-1 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 9 starts this year. He returned from the IL and had a season-high 11 strikeouts in 6 shutout innings against the Reds on July 5. Scherzer's teams are 18-2 in his 20 lifetime road starts against an NL team with a .315 OBP or worse in the 2nd half of the season. The Mets are 25-6 in their last 31 games off a loss. Take New York.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Jul 11 '22, 7:20 PM in 2h
MLB | Mets vs Braves

Play on: Braves -115 at BetVegas

1* Free Play on Braves -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AAA Sports

Jul 11 '22, 8:05 PM in 3h
MLB | A's vs Rangers

Play on: [B]A's +1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Jul 11 '22, 8:05 PM in 3h
MLB | A's vs Rangers

Play on: Rangers -160 at circa

1* on Rangers -160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow

Jul 11 '22, 8:40 PM in 4h
MLB | Padres vs Rockies

Play on: Padres -134 at circa

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Padres -134

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Jul 11 '22, 8:40 PM in 4h
MLB | Padres vs Rockies

Play on: Padres -134 at circa

1* Free Sharp Play on Padres -134
The Padres (-134) are worth a look as a road favorite at the Rockies in Monday's MLB action. Colorado's Jose Urena pitched great in his first start of 2022 last week, allowing just 1 ER in 6 2/3 innings in LA against the Dodgers. I'm just not buying he's going to be able to replicate that, especially now that he's starting at Coors Field. I got a lot more trust here in Padres' starter Sean Manaea, who has shown some flashes here of late of starting to look like the guy they had hoped for when they acquired him from Oakland. Play the Padres -134!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

Jul 11 '22, 8:40 PM in 4h
MLB | Padres vs Rockies

Play on: Padres -134 at circa

The Padres got embarrassed 12-0 yesterday. It was the fourth time this season that they'd been blanked. After each of the previous three instances, they bounced back and won their next game. I like their chances of doing so again this evening. Manaea has a respectable 3.88 ERA and a stingy 1.068 WHIP in eight road starts, averaging slightly over six innings in those games. While Urena was decent in his first start, this is still just his second of the season. The Padres are 12-6 as road favorites in the -125 to -175 range. Consider SD.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Jul 11 '22, 8:40 PM in 4h
MLB | Padres vs Rockies

Play on: Rockies +139 at Ace

My free play is on the Col Rockies at 8:40 ET.
The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year playoff drought in 2020's 60-game season and were expected to contend for the NL West title in 2021. However, the Padres would finish 79-83, 20 games behind the first-place Giants. The Colorado Rockies also snapped a long playoff drought in 2020 (13 straight playoff-less years) but also went 79-83 in 2021. The Padres have challenged the Dodgers for most of the 2022 season but recently the Padres have dropped 11 of their 16 contests to fall EIGHT games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Rockies return home after taking three of four from the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field but are just 38-48, tied with the D'backs for last in the NL West 18 1/2-games back of LA).
Sean Manaea (3-4, 4.18 ERA) will get the nod for San Diego, while Jose Urena (0-0, 2.51 ERA) will be making his second start since joining the Rockies. He pitched well versus the Los Angeles Dodgers last Wednesday when he gave up one run and five hits over 6.2 innings in a no-decision. Urena made four relief appearances for the Milwaukee Brewers earlier this season before being designated for assignment. The Rockies claimed him, and he made five Triple-A starts while building up his arm prior to last week's recall.
Manaea had his moments with Oakland but was never really able to put together a full season. He opened 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA for the Padres but he has earned just ONE win in his last 12 starts. The Padres are 5-7 in that span but Manaea is making his third career start at Coors Field. He lost both of those outings as a member of the Oakland Athletics and owns a 5.06 ERA in 10.2 innings.
That mirrors San Diego's woes vs the Rockies in Coors Field. The Padres are looking to snap a 10-game losing streak at Coors Field when they open this four-game series. Colorado has dominated San Diego in the lone games played in Denver this season, hitting eight HRs while outscoring the Padres 23-11 in a three-game set from June 17-19. Urena has been around since 2015 and is the very definition of journeyman, owning a career record of 36-54 with a 4.73 ERA.
However, I'll let someone else try to end San Diego's 10-game losing streak in Coors. The Rockies make it 11 straight wins with a "W" tonight.
Good luck...Larry