Saturday 9/10/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 359701

    #46
    Frank Sawyer

    Sep 10 '22, 3:41 PM in 28m
    NCAA-F | Tennessee vs Pittsburgh

    Play on: OVER 62 -110

    FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 9/10:

    My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for the Saturday afternoon window is with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Pittsburgh Panthers. Tennessee (1-0) generated 569 yards of offense in their 59-10 victory against Ball State as a 37-point favorite on September 1st. The Volunteers have played 5 straight Overs against non-conference opponents. They have also played 4 straight Overs on the road. Pittsburgh (1-0) comes off a c 38-31 win against West Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite two Thursdays ago. The Panthers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing at home. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against non-conference opponents. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 359701

      #47
      Vic Duke

      Sep 10 '22, 3:41 PM in 28m
      NCAA-F | Tennessee vs Pittsburgh

      Play on: Pittsburgh +6 -110 at linepros

      Tennessee/Pittsburgh 3:30: Tennessee racked up a lot of yards (569) vs lightweight Ball State last week. Vol's QB Henson Hooker lit up the Cardinals' secondary. Today, Hooker and company face a whole different animal. Pitt, which battled a legitimate contender - West Virginia - to kick off the College Football season last Thursday night, has a formidable defensive front that can get after the passer without blitzing. WV's J.T. Daniels did a bang-up job standing in the pocket delivering until the Pitt secondary scored a defensive TD for the third straight game dating back to last season. I don't believe Hooker can hold up as well. On the other hand, Pittsburgh's QB Kedon Slovis - (USC transfer), was outstanding in his debut for the Panthers. He has a solid supporting cast and should work a Tennessee defense that allowed Ball State to air it out for 269 yards. Pittsburgh is 3-0 in this series dating back to last year's 41-34 barn burner in Knoxville. Vol's just 16-35-1 ATS off a SU win of 20+. Take the points at home with Pitt.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 359701

        #48
        Matt Fargo

        Sep 10 '22, 3:41 PM in 28m
        NCAA-F | Tennessee vs Pittsburgh

        Play on: Tennessee -6 -110 at William Hill

        This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS for our Saturday Free Play. Both Tennessee and Pittsburgh are coming off Week One victories with the Panthers having faced and passed the bigger of the two early tests but are not totally sold by that victory. Pittsburgh won a back and forth game thanks to a 56-yard interception return for a touchdown with 2:58 remaining and it scored 14 points off two turnovers, the other being a fumble resulting in only a 35-yard drive. The Mountaineers won the yardage battle 404-384 as the Panthers had no hint of a running game with just 76 yards rushing on 38 carries (2.0 ypc) and that will be a problem in this matchup. Defensively, they were able to shut down the West Virginia passing game but will be facing a whole different dynamic here against a Tennessee offense that stretches the field and can make big plays. There was a lot of build up for that Backyard Brawl game and a letdown can be expected. It was all Tennessee from the start as the Volunteers scored on six of seven first half possessions and nine of its first 10 before calling off the troops in the fourth quarter. The Volunteers outgained Ball St. 569-343 and it was the rushing defense that stood out as they allowed only 74 yards on 27 carries (2.7 ypc). They were balanced on offense and while the Cardinals did not pose a big threat defensively, the passing game cannot be overlooked as Tennessee is deep at receiver as it had 10 players with at least one catch of 12 or more yards including four that went at least 20 yards and this will be a problem for the Panthers press coverage defense. Here, we play on road teams playing their second game of the season coming off a win after scoring 48 or more points. This situation is 15-4 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 12 seasons. Play (347) Tennessee Volunteers
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 359701

          #49
          ASA

          Sep 10 '22, 4:00 PM in 47m
          NCAA-F | Virginia vs Illinois

          Play on: [B]Illinois -3
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 359701

            #50
            Will Rogers

            Sep 10 '22, 5:05 PM in 1h
            MLB | BOS vs BAL

            Play on: [B]UNDER 8
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 359701

              #51
              Jimmy Boyd

              Sep 10 '22, 7:00 PM in 3h
              NCAA-F | Florida International vs Texas State

              Play on: Texas State -10 -110 at Caesars

              1* Free Pick on Texas State -10 -110
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 359701

                #52
                Kyle Hunter

                Sep 10 '22, 7:00 PM in 3h
                NCAA-F | Eastern Michigan vs UL-Lafayette

                Play on: [B]Eastern Michigan +11
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 359701

                  #53
                  Marc Lawrence

                  Sep 10 '22, 7:00 PM in 3h
                  NCAA-F | Kentucky vs Florida

                  Play on: Kentucky +6 -110 at circa

                  Play - Kentucky (Game 376).
                  Edges - Wildcats: 5-0 ATS in this series, and 9-2 ATS in Game Two of the season … Gators: 2-6 ATS in game Tow of the season, and 3-7 ATS with conference revenge … With the Gators coming off an emotional upset win over LSU, we recommend a 1* play on Kentucky. Thank you and good luck as always.
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 359701

                    #54
                    Sal Michaels

                    Sep 10 '22, 7:15 PM in 4h
                    MLB | Reds vs Brewers

                    Play on: Brewers -215 at William Hill

                    Free Play on Brewers -215
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 359701

                      #55
                      Woodbine Tip Sheet - September 10

                      WOODBINE TIPS - SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2022
                      Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.
                      RACE #1 $14,000 CLAIMING
                      1 1/16 MILES ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
                      PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                      WIN 3-1 2 Ultimate Storm R M Hernandez
                      PLACE 5-2 6 Green Fleet J Stein
                      SHOW 7-2 5 Trinity Gold S Jones
                      WILD CARD 4-1 3 Muromec L Contreras
                      ALTERNATE 1 9-2 1 Stop the Humbug A A Gallardo
                      ALTERNATE 2 8-1 4 Copinsay K Nicholls
                      * EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
                      * TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
                      RACE #2 $64,300 MAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING
                      5 FURLONGS ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 1:29 PM ET
                      PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                      WIN 5-2 3 Sweet Bombolini L Contreras
                      PLACE 2-1 5 Sacred Dancer J Stein
                      SHOW 6-1 6 Indian Music S P Husbands
                      WILD CARD 4-1 4 Lady in Red R M Hernandez
                      ALTERNATE 1 8-1 1 Aqua Luna J Crawford
                      ALTERNATE 2 10-1 7 Royal Chrome D Carroll
                      * EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
                      * TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
                      RACE #3 $23,500 CLAIMING
                      5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 1:59 PM ET
                      PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                      WIN 2-1 6 Confident N Elite R M Hernandez
                      PLACE 3-1 4 Stylish Gent D Carroll
                      SHOW 9-2 2 Mr Narcissistic J Stein
                      WILD CARD 8-1 3 Lion of the Sea J Hoyte
                      ALTERNATE 1 5-2 1 Blue Max S Jones
                      ALTERNATE 2 8-1 5 Arquebus N Hein
                      * EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
                      * TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
                      RACE #4 $101,200 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
                      7 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
                      BEST BET: #6 EPHRATA
                      PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                      WIN 5-2 6 Ephrata L Contreras
                      PLACE 7-2 5 Beat the System D Carroll
                      SHOW 8-1 10 Destinique S Civaci
                      WILD CARD 4-1 3 Spider Belle D Moran
                      ALTERNATE 1 6-1 2 Twister Alert A A Gallardo
                      ALTERNATE 2 10-1 4 Starlight Ridge L Salles
                      * EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX
                      * TRIFECTA: 5/6/10 BOX, 3/5/10 BOX
                      RACE #5 $64,300 MAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING
                      5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET
                      PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                      WIN 3-1 10 Delilahs Revenge K Nicholls
                      PLACE 7-2 7 Societys Kat E Flores
                      SHOW 4-1 5 Fashionably Fab R M Hernandez
                      WILD CARD 10-1 1 Sunshine Girl S Civaci
                      ALTERNATE 1 6-1 9 A Touch of Red S Jones
                      ALTERNATE 2 8-1 3 Im Phantom D Carroll
                      * EXACTA: 10-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
                      * TRIFECTA: 5/7/10 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
                      RACE #6 $108,700 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
                      1 1/16 MILES ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 3:41 PM ET
                      PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                      WIN 4-1 9 Mrs. Barbara R M Hernandez
                      PLACE 12-1 3 Dreidel J Stein
                      SHOW 6-1 1 Join the Dance E Wilson
                      WILD CARD 5-2 7 Seasons L Contreras
                      ALTERNATE 1 10-1 4 Il Malocchio S Civaci
                      ALTERNATE 2 20-1 5 Silent Causeway P Husbands
                      * EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
                      * TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
                      RACE #7 $125,000 STAKES
                      1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET
                      ** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $125,000 TORONTO CUP STAKES
                      PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                      WIN 2-1 1 Churchtown D Carroll
                      PLACE 7-2 3 First Empire P Husbands
                      SHOW 10-1 6 Luckman D Fukumoto
                      WILD CARD 15-1 7 Day Tripper D Moran
                      ALTERNATE 1 4-1 4 Riot House K Carmouche
                      ALTERNATE 2 10-1 10 Serifos R M Hernandez
                      * EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
                      * TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
                      COMMENTS: CHURCHTOWN can win from anywhere on the track and is one for one at the distance and surface. FIRST EMPIRE has not raced since September but has been working well getting ready. LUCKMAN is a closer with a lot of late octane and ran the highest last race speed figure. DAY TRIPPER is the price play and could go wire to wire with the right fractions.
                      RACE #8 $126,800 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                      6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 4:49 PM ET
                      BEST BET: #4 KEEN FLATTER
                      PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                      WIN 8-5 4 Keen Flatter L Contreras
                      PLACE 6-1 2 Today D Moran
                      SHOW 3-1 6 Uncaptured Moment K Nicholls
                      WILD CARD 4-1 3 Forest Buzz D Carroll
                      ALTERNATE 1 10-1 8 Magic Tomahawk R M Hernandez
                      ALTERNATE 2 8-1 7 Celentano J Stein
                      * EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
                      * TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
                      RACE #9 $23,500 CLAIMING
                      6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:22 PM ET
                      BEST BET: #5 HANDCARVED
                      PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                      WIN 3-1 5 Handcarved S Civaci
                      PLACE 4-1 2 Funiculi J Stein
                      SHOW 2-1 8 Beyond Borders D Carroll
                      WILD CARD 6-1 1 Al Heybay E Wilson
                      ALTERNATE 1 10-1 4 Priceless Will R M Hernandez
                      ALTERNATE 2 8-1 6 Master Spy S Jones
                      * EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
                      * TRIFECTA: 2/5/8 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX
                      RACE #10 $95,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                      7 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:55 PM ET
                      PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                      WIN 3-1 9 Kaukokaipuu J Hoyte
                      PLACE 10-1 6 Wickedblackbullet K Nicholls
                      SHOW 4-1 11 Fighting Irish E Wilson
                      WILD CARD 9-2 7 Mythical Storm P Husbands
                      ALTERNATE 1 8-1 2 Do the Griddy R M Hernandez
                      ALTERNATE 2 6-1 10 Fajardo A A Gallardo
                      * EXACTA: 9-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX, 11-7 BOX
                      * TRIFECTA: 6/9/11 BOX, 6/7/11 BOX
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 359701

                        #56
                        Pimlico Tip Sheet - September 10

                        PIMLICO TIPS - SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2022
                        Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track.
                        RACE #1 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
                        6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:40 PM ET
                        BEST BET: #7 BLISS THIS
                        PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                        WIN 5-2 7 Bliss This X Perez
                        PLACE 9-5 8 Crimson Rocket S Russell
                        SHOW 8-1 3 Awesome Dynamo W A Rodriguez
                        WILD CARD 6-1 6 Sloe Gin Biz Y O Ortiz
                        ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 Blameitonthefun C Marquez
                        ALTERNATE 2 6-1 1 Kefi Y Aviles
                        * EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
                        * TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX
                        RACE #2 $20,000 CLAIMING
                        1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:17 PM ET
                        PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                        WIN 5-1 1 Ballyhoo Prince J Toledo
                        PLACE 3-1 3 Calloway Peak V R Carrasco
                        SHOW 9-2 5 Pursuing Pace H Karamanos
                        WILD CARD 5-2 7 Federal Offense L Corujo
                        ALTERNATE 1 6-1 2 Saint Marco A Cruz
                        ALTERNATE 2 9-2 8 T Rex R Silvera
                        * EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
                        * TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
                        RACE #3 $54,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
                        6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:50 PM ET
                        BEST BET: #7 HELDISH
                        PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                        WIN 9-5 7 Heldish S Russell
                        PLACE 2-1 6 Johnyz From Albany C E Lopez
                        SHOW 8-5 1 Super Chow J Ruiz
                        WILD CARD 15-1 5 Grand Escape L Corujo
                        ALTERNATE 1 30-1 3 Dontinvademyspace J Barbosa
                        ALTERNATE 2 30-1 2 Cavalry Command J D Acosta
                        * EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
                        * TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
                        RACE #4 $26,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
                        6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:23 PM ET
                        PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                        WIN 5-1 3 Rock and Fellers H Karamanos
                        PLACE 8-1 4 Bernies On Fire X Perez
                        SHOW 9-5 6 Substantial R Silvera
                        WILD CARD 4-1 8 The Wolfman J Toledo
                        ALTERNATE 1 3-1 5 Hes Incredible A Cruz
                        ALTERNATE 2 12-1 7 Nova Boy J Barbosa
                        * EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
                        * TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX
                        RACE #5 $24,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
                        1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:56 PM ET
                        PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                        WIN 3-1 4 Nibbles W Humphrey
                        PLACE 7-2 9 Lunar Ice A Cruz
                        SHOW 10-1 12 Meliponini Bee D Araujo
                        WILD CARD 20-1 7 Fashionista C Marquez
                        ALTERNATE 1 6-1 5 Little Nutter H Karamanos
                        ALTERNATE 2 20-1 6 Morethanastorm K Gomez
                        * EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-12 BOX, 12-7 BOX
                        * TRIFECTA: 4/9/12 BOX, 7/9/12 BOX
                        RACE #6 $75,000 STAKES
                        6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET
                        PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                        WIN 5-1 3 Swayin to and Fro G Whitacre
                        PLACE 5-2 10 Oxana D Davis
                        SHOW 10-1 9 Mattitude H Karamanos
                        WILD CARD 8-1 5 Whiteknuckleflyer J Ruiz
                        ALTERNATE 1 9-2 1 Peyton Elizabeth S Russell
                        ALTERNATE 2 20-1 6 No More Mask T Lyapustina
                        * EXACTA: 3-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX
                        * TRIFECTA: 3/9/10 BOX, 5/9/10 BOX
                        RACE #7 $100,000 STAKES
                        1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:04 PM ET
                        ** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 ALL ALONG STAKES
                        PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                        WIN 5-2 5 In a Hurry F Boyce
                        PLACE 9-5 4 Plum Ali D Davis
                        SHOW 7-2 3 Capital Structure F Lynch
                        WILD CARD 6-1 7 Gladys J Alvarado
                        ALTERNATE 1 6-1 1 Lake Lucerne S Russell
                        ALTERNATE 2 15-1 6 Youens H Karamanos
                        * EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
                        * TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
                        COMMENTS: IN A HURRY ran the top last race speed figure and could be better in the third run off the bench. PLUM ALI should be involved from beginning to end and is another looking to be at her best in the third after a layoff. CAPITAL STRUCTURE popped a huge late pace number in her last race. She won the next race the last time she experienced a similar jump. GLADYS ran some better fractions last time out.
                        RACE #8 $100,000 STAKES
                        6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:36 PM ET
                        ** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 LITE THE FUSE STAKES
                        PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                        WIN 5-2 2 Jaxon Traveler S Russell
                        PLACE 7-2 1 Wudda U Think Now T McCarthy
                        SHOW 2-1 5 Sibelius J Alvarado
                        WILD CARD 8-1 8 Quick Tempo J Toledo
                        ALTERNATE 1 12-1 7 Wendell Fong F Lynch
                        ALTERNATE 2 15-1 4 War Tocsin D Haddock
                        * EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
                        * TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX
                        COMMENTS: JAXON TRAVELER has three wins and a second in four at Pimlico. WUDDA U THINK NOW has four wins and a second in five at the distance. SIBELIUS should be close to the front from start to finish and showed extra late punch in his last race. QUICK TEMPO is making his first run after being claimed which is a 23 percent winner for trainer Kieron Magee.
                        RACE #9 $200,000 STAKES
                        1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:08 PM ET
                        ** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 TURF CUP STAKES GRADE III
                        PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                        WIN 2-1 6 Set Piece S Russell
                        PLACE 8-1 4 Field Pass D Davis
                        SHOW 20-1 7 English Tavern T McCarthy
                        WILD CARD 4-1 5 Sifting Sands F Lynch
                        ALTERNATE 1 5-2 1 Public Sector J Alvarado
                        ALTERNATE 2 7-2 2 Pao Alto J Toledo
                        * EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
                        * TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
                        COMMENTS: SET PIECE missed as the favorite in his last outing. Trainer Brad Cox rebounds at 31 percent the time around the track. FIELD PASS was considerably better in the first half mile last out. ENGLISH TAVERN is a longshot that is one for one at Pimlico and in the money nine of 12 on turf. SIFTING SANDS is undefeated in three at the distance but just one for seven and any other length.
                        RACE #10 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
                        6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:40 PM ET
                        BEST BET: #4 KOBES GIRL
                        PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                        WIN 2-1 4 Kobes Girl G Whitacre
                        PLACE 6-1 9 C Two H Karamanos
                        SHOW 4-1 1 Red Priestess L Corujo
                        WILD CARD 10-1 2 Hov Lane C Marquez
                        ALTERNATE 1 20-1 3 Despite the Gin C E Lopez
                        ALTERNATE 2 7-2 5 Following Wind K Gomez
                        * EXACTA: 4-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
                        * TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 359701

                          #57
                          Kentucky Downs Tip Sheet - September 10

                          KENTUCKY DOWNS TIPS - SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2022
                          Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 48% of the time at this track.
                          RACE #1 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                          1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:30 PM ET
                          BEST BET: #2 FIRE BARON
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 5-2 2 Fire Baron I Ortiz Jr.
                          PLACE 7-2 5 Route Runner J Rosario
                          SHOW 6-1 9 Father Delay T Gaffalione
                          WILD CARD 10-1 7 Good Heart V Cheminaud
                          ALTERNATE 1 4-1 15 Oscar Award R Gutierrez
                          ALTERNATE 2 9-2 14 The Bookkeeper A Beschizza
                          * EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 2/5/9 BOX, 5/7/9 BOX
                          RACE #2 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                          1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:02 PM ET
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 5-2 12 What a Dude J Rosario
                          PLACE 3-1 13 Aruba I Ortiz Jr.
                          SHOW 9-2 7 Baj A Achard
                          WILD CARD 10-1 3 Freeze Pop F Geroux
                          ALTERNATE 1 5-1 2 Vintage Year J Lezcano
                          ALTERNATE 2 12-1 1 Push Button I Ortiz Jr.
                          * EXACTA: 12-13 BOX, 13-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 7/12/13 BOX, 3/7/13 BOX
                          RACE #3 $160,000 ALLOWANCE
                          1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:35 PM ET
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 7-2 11 Golden Sights F Geroux
                          PLACE 6-1 1 Shes Gone R Bejarano
                          SHOW 12-1 10 Sister Nell I Ortiz Jr.
                          WILD CARD 6-1 9 Yarborough T Gaffalione
                          ALTERNATE 1 10-1 15 Economic Hangover E J Zayas
                          ALTERNATE 2 9-2 2 Final Belle J Rosario
                          * EXACTA: 11-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 1/10/11 BOX, 1/9/10 BOX
                          RACE #4 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                          1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:10 PM ET
                          BEST BET: #7 HERINGTON ROCKET
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 5-2 7 Herington Rocket T Gaffalione
                          PLACE 4-1 9 Wings Like Eagles J Rosario
                          SHOW 5-1 1 Shes All Class I Ortiz Jr.
                          WILD CARD 8-1 8 Arroblue J L Ortiz
                          ALTERNATE 1 5-1 14 Shady Road M Garcia
                          ALTERNATE 2 6-1 3 Hedy Lamarr R Bejarano
                          * EXACTA: 7-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 1/7/9 BOX, 1/8/9 BOX
                          RACE #5 $1,000,000 STAKES
                          1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
                          ** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M MINT MILLION STAKES GRADE III
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 9-2 4 Somelikeithotbrown J L Ortiz
                          PLACE 5-1 2 Pixelate J Rosario
                          SHOW 7-2 1 Mr Dumas R Gutierrez
                          WILD CARD 3-1 7 Atone T Gaffalione
                          ALTERNATE 1 20-1 8 Injunction G Corrales
                          ALTERNATE 2 12-1 10 Cavalry Charge D Cohen
                          * EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
                          COMMENTS: Speed really is not the way at Kentucky Downs but SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN has a strong edge early and with the right fractions could beat the bias. PIXELATE is the defending champion and hit the board in seven of eight at the distance. MR DUMAS finished in the trifecta eight races in a row and is a very consistent performer. ATONE is making his third start after a layoff. His resume suggests he might spike higher today.
                          RACE #6 $170,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
                          1 5/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:20 PM ET
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 6-1 10 Mud Pie T Gaffalione
                          PLACE 10-1 7 Decision Maker F Arrieta
                          SHOW 3-1 8 McLovin J Rosario
                          WILD CARD 5-2 3 Ajourneytofreedom I Ortiz Jr.
                          ALTERNATE 1 15-1 6 Peekacho C J Lanerie
                          ALTERNATE 2 10-1 2 Slicked Back F Geroux
                          * EXACTA: 10-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 7/8/10 BOX, 3/7/8 BOX
                          RACE #7 $150,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                          6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:55 PM ET
                          BEST BET: #12 BLACK FOREST
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 6-1 12 Black Forest J Talamo
                          PLACE 3-1 5 Love Tank I Ortiz Jr.
                          SHOW 4-1 6 Holy Foley J Rosario
                          WILD CARD 6-1 1 Acting A Beschizza
                          ALTERNATE 1 5-1 14 Mystify F Geroux
                          ALTERNATE 2 12-1 7 Lady Baron T Gaffalione
                          * EXACTA: 12-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 5/6/12 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
                          RACE #8 $750,000 STAKES
                          1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:30 PM ET
                          ** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $750,000 LADIES TURF STAKES GRADE III
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 3-1 8 Princess Grace F Geroux
                          PLACE 9-2 3 Hendy Woods J R Leparoux
                          SHOW 2-1 1 Dalika B J Hernandez Jr.
                          WILD CARD 30-1 6 Sunny One V Cheminaud
                          ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 Lady Speightspeare E Wilson
                          ALTERNATE 2 20-1 10 Henrietta Topham G Holmes
                          * EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 1/3/8 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
                          COMMENTS: PRINCESS GRACE is the defending champion and should be sharp at a distance where she has three wins with two thirds in five tries. HENDY WOODS ran the top last race speed figure and is another that likes to run a mile with four wins and two seconds in seven races. DALIKA gets the unwanted rail but has recently beat the top pick and just missed against here in this spot last year. SUNNY ONE is a Kentucky Downs bomb special coming off a great effort and a bullet work between races.
                          RACE #9 $1,000,000 STAKES
                          6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:10 PM ET
                          ** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M TURF SPRINT STAKES GRADE II
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 9-5 12 Arrest Me Red I Ortiz Jr.
                          PLACE 5-1 2 Chewing Gum J Rosario
                          SHOW 12-1 10 Totally Boss F Geroux
                          WILD CARD 15-1 3 Necker Island F Arrieta
                          ALTERNATE 1 12-1 13 Artemus Citylimits T Gaffalione
                          ALTERNATE 2 15-1 9 Front Run the Fed J Lezcano
                          * EXACTA: 12-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 2/10/12 BOX, 2/3/10 BOX
                          COMMENTS: ARREST ME RED has three wins and a second in four races at the distance. CHEWING GUM finished behind the top choice in the two times they met but not by much. TOTALLY BOSS is stretching out and is likely to step up in his second start after a layoff. NECKER ISLAND has a plus advantage with his late push and the best combo of early and late pace.
                          RACE #10 $1,000,000 STAKES
                          1 1/2 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET
                          ** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M TURF CLUB STAKES GRADE II
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 7-2 4 Arklow F Geroux
                          PLACE 7-5 8 Gufo J Rosario
                          SHOW 12-1 12 Highest Honors T Gaffalione
                          WILD CARD 30-1 5 Keystone Field R Santana Jr.
                          ALTERNATE 1 30-1 6 Glynn County V Cheminaud
                          ALTERNATE 2 6-1 3 Temple J L Ortiz
                          * EXACTA: 4-8 BOX, 8-12 BOX, 12-5 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 4/8/12 BOX, 5/8/12 BOX
                          COMMENTS: ARKLOW is a neck away from being a two time defending champion. GUFO popped a big race last out but tends to regress following a big jump in his speed number, HIGHEST HONORS could benefit from the race shape and he is one of the few that can win from anywhere on the track. KEYSTONE FIELD is the lone speed and could be on the lead after 6 furlongs without much pressure. Lookout if he can get away with the right fractions.
                          RACE #11 $600,000 STAKES
                          6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:20 PM ET
                          ** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $600,000 MINT LADIES SPRINT STAKES GRADE III
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 8-5 10 Campanelle I Ortiz Jr.
                          PLACE 6-1 11 In Good Spirits J R Velazquez
                          SHOW 30-1 16 Recoded G Corrales
                          WILD CARD 15-1 6 Tobys Heart A Beschizza
                          ALTERNATE 1 8-1 1 Bay Storm T Gaffalione
                          ALTERNATE 2 12-1 12 Elle Z M Murrill
                          * EXACTA: 10-11 BOX, 11-16 BOX, 16-6 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 10/11/16 BOX, 6/11/16 BOX
                          COMMENTS: CAMPANELLE has been facing some stiff competition in the US and Europe and has five wins in nine races. IN GOOD SPIRITS is yet another defending champion and will likely improve on her last effort. RECODED ran the top last race speed figure and could be a live Kentucky Downs special if he scratches in. TOBYS HEART is always pushing hard at the end of races and is showing signs of a big race coming.
                          RACE #12 $600,000 STAKES
                          6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:55 PM ET
                          ** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $600,000 FRANKLIN SIMPSON STAKES GII
                          PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                          WIN 8-5 6 Big Invasion J Rosario
                          PLACE 15-1 12 One Timer E T Baird
                          SHOW 9-2 8 Sumter J R Velazquez
                          WILD CARD 6-1 7 Run Curtis Run R Santana Jr.
                          ALTERNATE 1 30-1 4 Heaven Street V Cheminaud
                          * EXACTA: 6-12 BOX, 12-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
                          * TRIFECTA: 6/8/12 BOX, 7/8/12 BOX
                          COMMENTS: BIG INVASION has six straight wins and finished second in his debut. He has topped many of these along the way. ONE TIMER is flipping from dirt to turf which is a 33 percent winning angle for trainer Larry Rivelli. UMTER is not all that far from winning five in a row and has the look of a horse on the rise. RUN CURTIS RUN is knocking to turfs door with three seconds and a third in five efforts. He should be involved from start
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 359701

                            #58
                            Monmouth Park Tip Sheet - September 10

                            MONMOUTH PARK TIPS - SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2022
                            Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.
                            RACE #1 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
                            6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:15 PM ET
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 3-1 6 Madelines Grogu J A Vargas Jr.
                            PLACE 7-2 3 Gun of Gold M Rowland
                            SHOW 5-2 5 La de Peluche C Olivero
                            WILD CARD 4-1 4 Divine Romance J Rendon
                            ALTERNATE 1 6-1 1 Raw Power J Torres
                            ALTERNATE 2 5-1 2 Amalfi Lady S Marin
                            * EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
                            RACE #2 $71,875 OPTIONAL CLAIMING
                            1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:44 PM ET
                            BEST BET: #5 ONE TIME WILLARD
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 7-5 5 One Time Willard J Rendon
                            PLACE 5-2 7 Wolfe n Hawke P Lopez
                            SHOW 10-1 4 Cash Kid J A Gomez
                            WILD CARD 15-1 3 Lucky Lover Boy M Jimenez
                            ALTERNATE 1 8-1 10 Steel Pier J Laprida
                            ALTERNATE 2 8-1 9 Here Comes Billy A A Rodriguez
                            * EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
                            RACE #3 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
                            6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:13 PM ET
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 6-5 4 Song Saver P Lopez
                            PLACE 6-1 7 Rolin N Controlin J Rendon
                            SHOW 5-2 2 Tilted Tiara A Hernandez
                            WILD CARD 4-1 3 Tekila J C Ferrer
                            ALTERNATE 1 8-1 6 Dusted A A Rodriguez
                            ALTERNATE 2 12-1 1 Dixie Lark S Marin
                            * EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
                            RACE #4 $62,500 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
                            6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:42 PM ET
                            BEST BET: #3 ABOVE PAR
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 2-1 3 Above Par S Camacho
                            PLACE 5-1 2 Trade Secret P Lopez
                            SHOW 5-2 4 Liberated Lady N Juarez
                            WILD CARD 7-2 5 My Beautiful Belle J Torres
                            ALTERNATE 1 9-2 1 Bourbon Rebellion J A Gomez
                            ALTERNATE 2 15-1 6 Honey Money L Cardenas
                            * EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
                            RACE #5 $14,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
                            1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:12 PM ET
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 7-2 11 Streaming Tap P Lopez
                            PLACE 9-2 12 Leopardi S Camacho
                            SHOW 9-2 4 Dream Astray M Jimenez
                            WILD CARD 6-1 10 Committed J A Gomez
                            ALTERNATE 1 6-1 7 Perpetual Change A Jimenez
                            ALTERNATE 2 20-1 3 Inappropriate L Cardenas
                            * EXACTA: 11-12 BOX, 12-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 4/11/12 BOX, 4/10/12 BOX
                            RACE #6 $71,875 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
                            6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:42 PM ET
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 1-1 4 Sadie Baby J Rendon
                            PLACE 9-2 6 Big Lees Legacy J C Ferrer
                            SHOW 5-1 3 Random Luck J Ocasio
                            WILD CARD 7-2 5 Mob Mentality M Rowland
                            ALTERNATE 1 10-1 7 Twyla J Laprida
                            ALTERNATE 2 12-1 1 Desert Passion N Juarez
                            * EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
                            RACE #7 $57,500 ALLOWANCE
                            1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:12 PM ET
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 7-2 8 No Valla J A Vargas Jr.
                            PLACE 5-1 9 Evoking I Castillo
                            SHOW 3-1 11 Finest Work H R Diaz Jr.
                            WILD CARD 9-2 10 Midnight Diva P Lopez
                            ALTERNATE 1 15-1 2 She Fled the Scene A Moreno
                            ALTERNATE 2 8-1 6 Bravo Zulu N Juarez
                            * EXACTA: 8-9 BOX, 9-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 8/9/11 BOX, 9/10/11 BOX
                            RACE #8 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
                            6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:42 PM ET
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 6-1 1 Cruising Derek R F Moya
                            PLACE 8-1 9 Tiempo Perfecto R Mitchell
                            SHOW 7-2 4 Okletsgo P Lopez
                            WILD CARD 4-1 2 Possiblemente A Jimenez
                            ALTERNATE 1 8-1 8 Brodys War J A Gomez
                            ALTERNATE 2 3-1 3 In Detail J C Ferrer
                            * EXACTA: 1-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 2/4/9 BOX
                            RACE #9 $100,000 STAKES
                            1 1/2 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET
                            ** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 PRESIOUS PASSION STAKES
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 3-5 7 LImperator H R Diaz Jr.
                            PLACE 20-1 8 Hieroglyphics L Cardenas
                            SHOW 4-1 1 Oceans Map P Lopez
                            WILD CARD 15-1 6 Alex Joon
                            ALTERNATE 1 30-1 4 Kingdom On Paws A A Rodriguez
                            ALTERNATE 2 5-1 9 Royne I Castillo
                            * EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
                            COMMENTS: LIMPERATOR drops in class after running the top last race speed figure. HIEROGLYPHICS has a win and a third in a pair at Monmouth and was much better late in his last. OCEANS MAP is a hot and cold horse that usually has a strong late push. ALEX JOON is much better on turf with two wins and a second in five races.
                            RACE #10 $65,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
                            1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:42 PM ET
                            BEST BET: #4 NO SALT
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 6-1 4 No Salt J C Ferrer
                            PLACE 5-2 1 Antigravity P Lopez
                            SHOW 10-1 3 Golden Brown J Rendon
                            WILD CARD 10-1 7 Sagamore Mischief I Castillo
                            ALTERNATE 1 5-1 5 King of Dreams S Camacho
                            ALTERNATE 2 9-2 6 Phat Man A A Rodriguez
                            * EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
                            RACE #11 $57,500 ALLOWANCE
                            1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:12 PM ET
                            PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY
                            WIN 5-1 7 Kitten With a Whip P Lopez
                            PLACE 6-1 1 Texas Magic S Marin
                            SHOW 10-1 10 Conundrum Queen J Rendon
                            WILD CARD 7-2 2 Lay the Groundwork J A Vargas Jr.
                            ALTERNATE 1 12-1 9 La Costa J A Gomez
                            ALTERNATE 2 12-1 11 Cocoa Icing J C Ferrer
                            * EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX, 10-2 BOX
                            * TRIFECTA: 1/7/10 BOX, 1/2/10 BOX
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 359701

                              #59
                              Kentucky Downs Hotlist - September 10

                              September 9, 2022

                              Today’s Kentucky Downs Hot List races to watch
                              Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022

                              By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
                              Hot List Key:
                              A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
                              *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
                              *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
                              * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
                              1st race – (2) Fire Baron had a rocky trip in his debut and can make amends with Irad aboard. (9) Father Delay may fare better on turf. (5) Route Runner is also worth a look in his turf debut. (13) Solomon Vandy should be a threat if he can scratch into the field. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-9-13.
                              3rd race – (11) Golden Sightswas a good second in her turf debut and should handle this field. (2) Final Belle is rounding back into top form and could be the main threat. (1) She’s Gone was beaten by two heads last time and could re-appear in the winner’s circle. (6) Berate should be a threat in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 11 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-6-11.
                              5th race – (4) Somelikeithotbrown won on dirt last time and will be tough to catch back on turf. (7) Atone rallied strongly last time and will make his presence felt in the stretch. (2) Pixelate usually turns in a solid effort and will be a force in this field. (6) Gray’s Fable will be a factor on his best try. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-6-7.
                              8th race – (1) Dalika was second in this stakes last year and can make amends for that setback here. (8) Princess Grace won last year’s edition and is the one to fear off a second in the Beverly D. (9) Stolen Holiday could be tough to catch on the front end. (4) Lady Speightspeare ships in from Woodbine after a pair of wins and fits in nicely here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-8-9.
                              10th race – (4) Arklow is still going strong at the age of 8, finishing second in the Grade 2 Bowling Green at Belmont in his 2022 debut. He loves this course and race, racking up two wins and two seconds in the last four runnings. There’s no reason to expect anything different Saturday and he gets the nod in a tough field. (8) Gufo is in top form after winning the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga last time. He should like the surface, which will not be rock hard, and looks like the one to fear. (1) Red Knight was second in this stakes two years ago and comes off a sharp win in his first start for Maker. He loves a distance of ground and should be a main factor from the rail. (6) Glynn County has not won for a while but he’s well-tested at the distance and could sneak into the superfecta. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-6-8.
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                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 359701

                                #60
                                Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | September 10, 2022

                                September 9, 2022

                                Race 5 at Kentucky Downs | Saturday, September 10 | Post Time 2:45 PM Eastern
                                Winstar Mint Million Stakes | Purse $1 million| One Mile on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward
                                Analysis and top contenders:
                                We’ll start with Gray’s Fable (6) in this really interesting race at a mile on the European style course at Kentucky Downs. He’s one of three horses coming out of the same race, the Evan Williams Turf Mile Stakes at Ellis Park on August 7, which serves as a prep for this race. In that race, Gray’s Fable was on the rail in traffic at the eighth pole, forced to steady, then found a seam and came to the two path to surge to the front by a neck at the wire. Jockey Michel rode the gelding beautifully and rides back and the 111 Equibase Speed Figure, which tied his previous career best from the Opening Verse Stakes in May at Churchill Downs (also at a mile) was rock solid against the others in this race. The fact he had trouble and still won is a testament to his mental toughness so opening at 8/1 he gets top billing here.
                                Still, Tut’s Revenge (9) and Mr Dumas (1), who finished third and second, respectively, in that photo, must be considered. If not for the fact we have a fairly evenly matched group of nine here we would not be getting potential value on these two either, who open at 8/1 and 6/1. Tut’s Revenge was returning on two weeks rest after another near miss in a stakes and fires nearly every time he runs, resulting in a career record of 11-7-8 in 38 races. Cheminaud gets on and that’s fine as this French jockey likely will find the dips and rises as well as the sweeping turns to his liking in the same way French jockey Michel (aboard Gray’s Fable) will.
                                Mr Dumas (1) did nothing wrong in the Evan Williams Turf mile when rallying strongly from 10th with a quarter mile to go to miss by a neck. He won the similar Mystic Lake Mile prior to that and has never missed the board in six races this year. His 112 and 110 last two figures stack up well with the other two and it could be a tossup who wins, but with all three offering value there’s money to be won in the exacta using all three.
                                For some exacta tickets we should toss in Pixelate (2) who won this race last year off a third place finish and enters the race off a third place effort again but his last two figures of 102 and 100 are a bit short of what it’s going to take to win if any of the top three repeat their last efforts. Kentucky Ghost (5) and Atone (7) are worth noting as well. Kentucky Ghost was second in the TVG Stakes at Kentucky Downs last September and won a stakes one before last but was overmatched in the Grade 1 United Nations in July. Atone was scratched out of an easier spot on Thursday to go here and missed by two noses last out in a big effort at Saratoga. Somelikeithotbrown (4) could be the early pacesetter and enters the race off a win. He finished second in the 2021 Mint Million after leading in the stretch and I think he’s going to be passed late again this year but could hang on for second once more.

                                Win bets:
                                Gray’s Fable (6) and Tut’s Revenge (9) should both be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or more, particularly at Gray’s Fable opens at 10/1 odds and Tut’s Revenge opens at 15/1 odds.
                                Mr Dumas (1) also has 3 to 1 fair odds but opens lower and we want to bet the two of the three which are the highest odds near post time so what’s why Gray’s Fable and Tut’s Revenge are listed as the potential win bets.
                                Exactas:
                                Tut’s Revenge (9), Gray’s Fable (6) and Mr Dumas (1) over ALL. At the $1 minimum level the cost of the bet if all 10 horses run is $27. This bet is secondary to win bets but could be very profitable if either Gray’s Fable or Tut’s Revenge win, no matter who finishes second, or if either of those or another long shot finishes second to Mr. Dumas.
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