Friday 9/30/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 07:31 AM

Friday’s games

National League
Philadelphia (83-72) @ Washington (54-101)
— Falter is 1-1, 5.02 in his last three starts.
— Phillies are 10-4 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-14
— record in first 5 innings: 7-6-1
— He is 0-1, 9.35 in four games (1 start) vs Chicago.

— Syndergaard is 1-1, 6.06 in his last three starts.
— Phillies are 5-3 in his starts.
— under 5-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 3-8
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4
— He is 1-2, 5.67 in five starts vs Chicago.

— Phillies lost their last five games.
— They lead Milwaukee by half-game for last playoff spot.
— Philly is 36-38 on road.
— under 3-0 last three games
— scored run in first inning: 39-155
— record in first 5 innings: 63-67-25
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-2-2

— Fedde is 0-2, 7.62 in his last three starts.
— Washington is 3-7 in his last 10 starts.
— under 5-2-1 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 6-25
— record in first 5 innings: 8-15-2
— He is 2-6, 6.19 in 11 starts vs Philly.

— bullpen game

— Washington is 3-7 in its last 10 games.
— Nationals are 25-52 at home.
— under 10-2-1 last 13 games.
— scored run in first inning: 43-155
— record in first 5 innings: 40-93-22
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-x

Cincinnati (60-96) @ Chicago (70-86)
— Ashcroft is 0-2, 5.82 in his last three starts.
— Cincinnati is 10-7 in his starts.
— over 4-2-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 5-17
— record in first 5 innings: 9-5-3
— He is 0-2, 11.42 in two starts vs Chicago TY.

— Reds are 9-19 in last 27 games.
— Cincinnati is 29-49 on road.
— under 13-5-2 last 20 games
— scored run in first inning: 37-156
— record in first 5 innings: 50-79-27
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-2-x

— Sampson is 2-0, 1.13 in his last four starts.
— Chicago is 9-8 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 5-17
— record in first 5 innings: 4-11-2
— He is 0-0, 2.70 in two starts vs Cincinnati TY.

— Cubs are 12-4 in their last 16 games.
— Cubs are 34-44 at home.
— under 15-5 last 20 games
— scored run in first inning: 48-156
— record in first 5 innings: 64-68-24
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-4

NY Mets (98-58) @ Atlanta (97-59)
— deGrom is 0-2, 6.60 in his last three starts.
— Mets are 6-4 in his starts
— over 3-1 last four starts
— allowed run in first inning: 2-10
— record in first 5 innings: 6-3-1
— He is 1-1, 3.65 in two starts vs Atlanta TY.

— Mets won nine of last 12 games.
— Mets are 47-31 on road.
— over 17-8 last 25 games.
— scored run in first inning: 52-156
— record in first 5 innings: 83-45-28
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-3.2-x
— Mets lead Atlanta by game in NL East race.

— Fried is 0-2, 2.37 in his last three starts.
— Braves are 19-10 in his starts
— under 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 3-29
— record in first 5 innings: 16-9-4
— He is 2-2, 3.00 in four starts vs New York TY.

— Braves are 9-4 in their last 13 games.
— Atlanta is 52-26 at home.
— under 12-6 last 18 games.
— scored run in first inning: 41-156
— record in first 5 innings: 86-52-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-4.1-x

Miami (65-91) @ Milwaukee (83-73)
— Alcantara is 2-0, 1.06 in his last two starts.
— Miami is 10-6 in his last 16 starts.
— under 7-3 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 6-31
— record in first 5 innings: 13-7-11
— He is 2-0, 2.63 in three starts vs Milwaukee.

— Miami is 24-52 in its last 76 games.
— Marlins are 33-45 on road.
— under 5-3-1 last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-155
— record in first 5 innings: 58-68-30
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3.2-5

— Burnes is 2-2, 3.67 in his last four starts.
— Milwaukee is 6-3 in his last nine starts.
— over 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 6-31
— record in first 5 innings: 14-11-6
— He is 0-1, 3.68 in two starts vs Miami.

— Brewers are 12-8 in last 20 games.
— Milwaukee is 43-32 at home.
— under 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 49-156
— record in first 5 innings: 69-57-30
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5.2-3-4
— They trail Phillies by half-game for last Wild Card slot.

Pittsburgh (59-97) @ St Louis (90-66)
— Oviedo is 2-0, 1.69 in his last three starts.
— He pitched in 14 games for St Louis earlier this year.
— Pittsburgh is 2-3 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3
— He hasn’t pitched against his old team.

— Pirates won four of last five games.
— Pittsburgh is 27-51 on road.
— over 6-2 last eight road games
— scored run in first inning: 29-156
— record in first 5 innings: 49-78-29
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-1-x

— Flaherty is 1-1, 4.71 in his last four starts.
— St Louis is 4-3 in his starts.
— over 5-2
— allowed run in first inning: 4-7
— record in first 5 innings: 1-4-2
— He is 0-0, 7.88 in two starts vs Pittsburgh TY.

— Cardinals are 3-6 in last nine games.
— St Louis is 51-27 at home.
— under 10-4 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 49-156
— record in first 5 innings: 67-63-26
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3-x

Colorado (65-91) @ Los Angeles (108-48)
— Kuhl is 0-3, 6.75 in his last five starts.
— Colorado is 1-8 in his last nine starts.
— over 8-3 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 11-26
— record in first 5 innings: 5-15-6
— He is 1-1, 3.55 in two starts vs Los Angeles TY.

— Colorado is 8-12 in its last 20 games.
— Rockies are 24-51 on road.
— under 19-11-1 last 31 games.
— scored run in first inning: 38-153
— record in first 5 innings: 41-87-25
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-3-2

— Kershaw is 3-0, 1.42 in his last three starts.
— Dodgers are 8-2 in his last 10 starts
— over 5-3-1 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 3-20
— record in first 5 innings: 13-3-4
— He is 0-2, 10.61 in two starts vs Colorado TY.

— Dodgers are 5-4 in last nine games.
— Los Angeles is 54-21 at home.
— under 13-4 last 17 games
— scored run in first inning: 52-156
— record in first 5 innings: 88-36-31
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-4-5

Arizona (72-84) @ San Francisco (78-78)
— Kelly is 2-2, 3.94 in his last five starts.
— Arizona is 4-7 in his last 11 starts.
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 7-31
— record in first 5 innings: 16-9-6
— He is 3-0, 1.51 in five starts vs San Francisco TY.

— Diamondbacks are 7-15 in last 22 games.
— Arizona is 32-43 on road.
— under 12-5 last 17
— scored run in first inning: 43-156
— record in first 5 innings: 67-52-37
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-2-x

— Cobb is 1-1, 3.57 in his last three starts.
— Giants are 3-9 in his last 12 starts.
— under 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 4-26
— record in first 5 innings: 7-10-9
— He is 1-2, 5.09 in four starts vs Arizona TY.

— Giants are 13-5 in their last 18 games.
— San Francisco is 42-36 at home.
— under 16-5 last 21 games
— scored run in first inning: 38-156
— record in first 5 innings: 62-67-27
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-8-3

American League
Baltimore (80-76) @ Bronx (96-59)
— Lyles is 2-2, 5.13 in his last five starts.
— Orioles are 9-3 in his last 12 starts.
— over 3-0-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 8-31
— record in first 5 innings: 15-14-2
— He is 1-2, 5.46 in five starts vs New York TY.

— Orioles lost last three games.
— Baltimore is 36-43 on road.
— under 26-16-1 last 43 games.
— scored run in first inning: 34-156
— record in first 5 innings: 59-73-24
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5.1-3-4

— German is 1-1, 3.00 in his last six starts.
— New York is 6-6 in his starts.
— over 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 3-12
— record in first 5 innings: 5-6-1
— He is 6-0, 2.28 in eight games (6 starts) vs Baltimore.

— New York is 17-5 in its last 22 games.
— New York is 56-22 at home.
— over 13-6 last 19 games
— scored run in first inning: 53-155
— record in first 5 innings: 78-47-30
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 1.2-2.2-x

Boston (75-81) @ Toronto (87-69)
— Pivetta is 1-1, 5.31 in his last four starts.
— Boston is 2-5 in his last seven starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 10-31
— record in first 5 innings: 11-15-5
— He is 0-1, 5.52 in three starts vs Toronto TY.

— Red Sox are 8-13 in their last 21 games.
— Boston is 35-43 on road.
— over 6-3-1 last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 42-156
— record in first 5 innings: 62-63-31
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5.2-3-4

— Manoah is 3-0, 1.03 in his last five starts.
— Blue Jays are 8-10 in his last 18 starts.
— under 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 5-30
— record in first 5 innings: 14-9-7
— He is 2-0, 1.80 in three starts vs Boston TY.

— Blue Jays are 19-11 in their last 30 games.
— Toronto is 44-34 at home.
— over 9-5-1 last 15 games
— scored run in first inning: 49-156
— record in first 5 innings: 61-59-36
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-3.2-5.1
— Toronto clinched a playoff spot last night, is still playing for home field in first round.

Kansas City (63-93) @ Cleveland (88-68)
— Singer is 3-0, 0.45 in his last three starts.
— Royals are 8-1 in his last nine starts.
— under 8-4 last 12
— allowed run in first inning: 3-23
— record in first 5 innings: 14-5-4
— He is 0-0, 4.85 in two starts vs Cleveland TY.

— Kansas City is 6-5 in its last 11 games.
— Royals are 24-51 on road.
— over 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 42-156
— record in first 5 innings: 59-75-22
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-2-3.1

— Civale is 1-1, 4.50 in his last three starts.
— Guardians are 5-1 in his last six starts.
— under 7-2 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 5-18
— record in first 5 innings: 6-7-5
— He is 0-0, 4.35 in two starts vs Kansas City TY.

— Guardians are 20-4 in their last 24 games.
— Cleveland is 42-33 at home.
— under 30-17-2 last 48 games.
— scored run in first inning: 46-156
— record in first 5 innings: 64-62-30
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-4-3

Minnesota (76-80) @ Detroit (63-92)
— Ryan is 2-0, 1.45 in his last three starts.
— Twins are 10-6 in his last 16 starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 8-26
— record in first 5 innings: 12-10-4
— He is 3-0, 1.53 in three starts vs Detroit TY.

— Minnesota is 7-13 in its last 20 games.
— Twins are 30-45 on road.
— under 11-6-1 last 18 games
— scored run in first inning: 50-156
— record in first 5 innings: 77-57-22
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 1.2-4.1-4

— Alexander is 1-0, 0.69 in his last two starts.
— Tigers are 3-12 in his starts.
— under 10-3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 8-15
— record in first 5 innings: 4-11
— He is 1-2, 3.41 in five starts vs Minnesota.

— Tigers are 8-1 in their last nine games.
— Detroit is 34-45 at home.
— over 6-4 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 32-155
— record in first 5 innings: 53-82-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-8-2.1

Tampa Bay (85-71) @ Houston (102-54)
— Rasmussen is 0-3, 4.96 in his last three starts.
— Rays are 17-9 in his starts.
— under 8-1-1 last 10
— allowed run in first inning: 5-26
— record in first 5 innings: 17-6-3
— He is 1-1, 3.27 in two starts vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay is 1-4 in its last five games.
— Rays are 34-41 on road.
— under 5-3 last eight road games
— scored run in first inning: 44-156
— record in first 5 innings: 74-55-27
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 7-6.1-2

— Valdez is 2-0, 3.98 in his last three starts.
— Astros are 8-1 in his last nine starts.
— over 7-3-2 last 12 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-30
— record in first 5 innings: 16-7-7
— He hasn’t pitched against Tampa Bay.

— Astros are 7-3 in last ten games.
— Houston is 51-24 at home.
— over 4-0 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 55-156
— record in first 5 innings: 93-39-24
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2-x

Texas (66-89) @ LA Angels (70-86)
— Otto is 0-1, 4.81 in his last five starts.
— Texas is 6-3 in his last nine starts
— under 10-5 last 15
— allowed run in first inning: 5-25
— record in first 5 innings: 7-13-8
— He is 1-0, 4.50 in two starts vs Anaheim TY.

— Rangers are 8-20 in last 28 games.
— Texas is 34-44 on road.
— over 9-6 last 15 games
— scored run in first inning: 43-155
— record in first 5 innings: 55-70-30
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 7-1-5

— Detmers is 1-1, 6.00 in his last three starts.
— Angels are 2-4 in his last six starts.
— under 4-0-1 last five home starts
— allowed run in first inning: 9-24
— record in first 5 innings: 9-9-6
— He is 0-1, 6.75 in four starts vs Texas TY.

— Angels are 9-4 in their last 13 games.
— Angels are 37-41 at home.
— under 3-0 last three games
— scored run in first inning: 46-156
— record in first 5 innings: 72-60-24
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-4-1

A’s (56-100) @ Seattle (85-70)
— Waldichuk is 1-2, 7.15 in five starts.
— A’s are 1-4 in his starts.
— over 5-0
— allowed run in first inning: 3-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Seattle.

— A’s are 11-23 in last 34 games.
— Oakland is 30-49 on road.
— over 15-8 last 23 games
— scored run in first inning: 40-156
— record in first 5 innings: 50-79-27
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-3.1-4

— Gilbert is 3-1, 2.25 in his last five starts.
— Seattle is 5-1 in his last six starts
— under 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 6-31
— record in first 5 innings: 16-12-3
— He is 1-0, 5.73 in two starts vs Oakland TY.

— Mariners are 6-9 in their last 15 games.
— Seattle is 41-33 at home.
— under 21-11-1 last 33 games
— scored run in first inning: 52-155
— record in first 5 innings: 66-67-22
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-3-6

Interleague game
White Sox (77-79) @ San Diego (86-70)
— Martin is 0-1, 3.00 in his last two starts.
— White Sox are 2-5 in his starts.
— under 4-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-7
— record in first 5 innings: 1-5-1
— He hasn’t pitched against San Diego.

— White Sox lost eight of last nine games.
— Chicago is 42-36 on road.
— over 6-4 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 38-156
— record in first 5 innings: 61-77-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2.1-4

— Darvish is 6-0, 1.80 in his last six starts.
— Padres are 18-11 in his starts.
— under 7-3 last 10
— allowed run in first inning: 8-29
— record in first 5 innings: 22-3-4
— He is 3-1, 3.43 in six starts vs Chicago.

— Padres won eight of last 12 games.
— San Diego is 41-34 at home.
— under 11-4 last 15 games.
— scored run in first inning: 42-156
— record in first 5 innings: 73-52-31
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-5-5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 08:01 AM

Belmont Park Tip Sheet - September 30

September 29, 2022

BELMONT AT THE BIG A TIPS - FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money % of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 ORDER OF MAGNITUDE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	6	Order of Magnitude	F Prat
PLACE	3-1	5	North Pole	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	8-5	7	Abundant Honor	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	10-1	4	Fazaro	J A Gomez

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Super Quality	D Davis
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	2	Sharpoon	M J Luzzi

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX

RACE #2 $110,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	3	Mischievous Dream	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	9-2	4	Strong Odor	J Castellano
SHOW	2-1	7	Mail Order	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Lia Marina	J Rosario

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	8	Customerexperience	J A Gomez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Stop War	K Carmouche

* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX

RACE #3 $77,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:02 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 SUCCULENT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	6	Succulent	D Davis
PLACE	5-2	7	Photon	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	6-1	2	Lem Me Drink	L Saez
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Latest Edition	J Castellano

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Tara Dancer	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Bavarian Creme	K Carmouche

* EXACTA: 6-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX

RACE #4 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:31 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 ACTUALIZE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	4	Actualize	J Rosario
PLACE	7-2	2	Necromancer	J Castellano
SHOW	9-5	6	Upper Level	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Sainthoodforbrian	K Carmouche

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Grand Again	L A Rodriguez Castro
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Dorsoduro	L Saez

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

RACE #5 $110,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:03 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	4	Senbei	M Franco
PLACE	9-5	1	Saint Selby	K Carmouche
SHOW	6-1	5	Synthesis	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	4-1	6	Happy Farm	D Davis

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	2	Stage Left	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Swiftsure	J A Gomez

* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

RACE #6 $77,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 3:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	2	Fancypants Juliana	L Saez
PLACE	9-2	10	Moonage Daydream	F Prat
SHOW	5-1	9	Leadership Ability	M Franco
WILD CARD	10-1	1	Bad Samaritan	D Davis

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Galatrona	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Dance With Me Babe	K Carmouche

* EXACTA: 2-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/9/10 BOX, 1/9/10 BOX

RACE #7 $125,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:09 PM ET
BONUS COMMENTARY $125,000 HETTINGER STAKES

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	2	Make Mischief	D Davis
PLACE	5-2	4	Marvelous Maude	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	8-1	9	Finest Work	M Franco
WILD CARD	9-2	7	Runaway Rumour	F Prat

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Ice Princess	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Pure Bode	J Lezcano

* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/9 BOX, 4/7/9 BOX
COMMENTS: MAKE MISCHIEF debuts on turf and breeding suggests she will like it. MARVELOUS MAUDE her best race in her career came at this distance. FINEST WORK has won four of seven career races on the turf. RUNAWAY RUMOUR always seems to be coming at the end to try and get a piece.

RACE #8 $40,000 CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:41 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	5	American Tattoo	L Saez
PLACE	7-2	3	Winter Pool	K Carmouche
SHOW	3-1	2	Locally Owned	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	6-1	7	Two Thirty Five	D Davis

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	6	Truculent	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Pioneer Spirit	T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX

RACE #9 $105,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:13 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	1	Diamond Hands	L Saez
PLACE	4-1	3	Parnac	J Rosario
SHOW	3-1	5	Marketsegmentation	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Salimah	F Prat

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	8	Unruly Julie	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	10	Ensemble	M Franco

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 10:14 AM

Belmont at the Big A Hotlist - September 30

September 29, 2022

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Friday, September 30, 2022
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [Md 40000, 1 mi] – (3) Super Quality was claimed two races back, tried a maiden special weight, and now goes from turf to dirt as a new gelding. He is projected to be on the lead. (5) North Pole was also claimed two starts ago but he came back to just miss the win after having the lead in the stretch. (4) Fazaro moves from turf to dirt where he has a pair of seconds and gets blinkers on. (6) Order of Magnitude drops into a maiden claimer for the first time in his second start of the year.
3^rd race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 mi TURF] – (5) Latest Edition (B) had the lead last time but lost to a Hot List horse and finished second well ahead of the rest of the field. (6) Succulent won his last start but was disqualified and placed third after floating out in the stretch. She was second in her prior turf race at Saratoga. (4) Tara Dancer went from a third in her debut to a NY-bred stakes races and now drops back down. (2) Lem Me Drink set the pace last time, faded to fourth, and cuts back a furlong now.
4^th race [Md 40000, 6F] – (4) Actualize is projected to be the pacesetter as he drops in a maiden claimer for the first time and comes back after just two weeks. (6) Upper Level moves from turf to dirt with a good debut on the main track in June at Belmont Park. He also has early speed. (5) Grand Again has changed barns after running second at Keeneland in his first start in October. He is now a gelding. (2) Necromancer hit the board twice at Aqueduct during the winter.
9^th race [Alw 105000 N1X, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (1) Diamond Hands (C) lost head bob to a Hot List winner at Saratoga after setting the pace when heavily bet from 13-1 to 7-1. (4) Salimah (B) returned from a seven month layoff at the Spa and was rank under restraint while racing wide the entire race. (3) Parnac was second in her second start of the year for Christophe Clement. (5) Marketsegmentation was a winner in her debut for Chad Brown in December at the Big A beating a horse that came back to win her next start.
Best bets: Actualize (4^th); Diamond Hands (9^th). Best value: Super Quality (1^st); Latest Edition (3^rd).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(3)	Latest Edition	B on 8/12	3	Had the lead but lost by a neck while well ahead of the rest.
(14)	Highway Harmony	A on 8/12	6	Second on Also Eligible list.
(1)	Diamond Hands	C on 8/12	9	Lost a head bob to a Hot List horse at Saratoga.
(4)	Salimah	B on 8/27	9	She was rank under restraint and wide all the way.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 12:36 PM

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - September 30

September 29, 2022

CHURCHILL DOWNS TIPS - FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	3	Candy Kick	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	7-2	2	Backstreet Affair	M Murrill
SHOW	5-2	4	Landed Gentry	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Junellia	F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Our Lady Nelson	I Wiseman
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Open Says Me	A Beschizza

* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX

RACE #2 $50,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:14 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	1	Malibu S S	E Morales
PLACE	5-2	3	Prayforpeace	D Cohen
SHOW	2-1	6	Zippin Gigi	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Blue Kentucky	J Graham

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Waita Minute Hayes	C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Doctor Nash	J Rocco Jr.

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #3 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:43 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 AIR COMBAT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	2	Air Combat	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	3-1	4	Seal Beach	G Corrales
SHOW	8-5	1	Dr. Perry	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Trashtalkinyankee	F Geroux

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	You Vee Cee	D Cohen
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	New Years Fever	E Morales

* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX

RACE #4 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:13 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 LOUELLA STREET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	7	Louella Street	E Morales
PLACE	5-1	5	Eclipsed	F Arrieta
SHOW	3-1	8	Forever Home	A Beschizza
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Sweet Annabella	J Rocco Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	1	Sis Boom Bob	R Miranda
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Green Bananas	J R Leparoux

* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX

RACE #5 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	8	Tell Me When	G Corrales
PLACE	3-1	6	Nomadic Pride	E Morales
SHOW	7-2	2	Black Forest	M Garcia
WILD CARD	4-1	1	Malibu Toast	F Geroux

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	5	Valiant Praise	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Rocket City	T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/8 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #6 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:18 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 ELEVEN CENTRAL

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	7	Eleven Central	G Corrales
PLACE	4-1	5	Roderick	T Gaffalione
SHOW	6-1	1	Major General	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Claytnthelionheart	J R Leparoux

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	2	Digital	C J Lanerie
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Palazzi	A Beschizza

* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

RACE #7 $120,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	7	Saucy Secret	J Rocco Jr.
PLACE	3-1	4	Justifying	T Gaffalione
SHOW	4-1	9	Queen of Chill	F Geroux
WILD CARD	10-1	1	Gavinera	B J Hernandez Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	8	Two Minute Drill	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Miss Quest	R Bejarano

* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/9 BOX, 1/4/9 BOX

RACE #8 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Decision Maker	F Geroux
PLACE	2-1	3	Alejandro	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	3-1	2	Scarlet Fusion	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Search Engine	E Morales

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Uninvited Guest	J Rocco Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Common Bond	R Bejarano

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX

RACE #9 $150,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:55 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	3	How Did He Do That	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	5-1	5	Fight Fiercely	R Bejarano
SHOW	3-1	8	Day Trade	F Geroux
WILD CARD	10-1	10	Mamba Forever	B J Hernandez Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Dont Let Go	G Saez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	King Me	F Peterson

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/8 BOX, 5/8/10 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 12:37 PM

Churchill Downs Hotlist - September 30

September 29, 2022

Today’s Churchill Downs Hot List races to watch
Friday, Sept. 30, 2022
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2nd race – (5) Blue Kentucky returns to dirt and should turn in a sharp effort. (1) Malibu S S figures to be a threat with a ground-saving trip. (6) Zippin Gigi could be tough to catch in this spot. (4) Waita Minute Hayes should improve against claimers. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5. Exactas: 1-5 with 4-6 and 4-6 with 1-5. Doubles: 1-4-5-6 with 1-2-4.
3rd race – (1) Dr. Perry has the rail and Gaffalione and that may be a winning combination. (2) Air Combat will be well-suited by the six-furlong distance. (4) Seal Beach has put in some promising works and may wake up here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-4.
5th race – (6) Nomadic Pride put in a sharp, bullet work for her debut and may lead throughout. (1) Malibu Toast is another firster who may be a keen runner. (7) Rye Munny can make her presence felt here. (5) Valiant Praise should be a factor back on dirt. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-7.
7th race – (4) Justifying had a troubled trip when well-bet in her debut. Deserves a second chance here. (9) Queen of Chill has been acting like a solid runner in morning drills. (2) American Odalisque is worth a look in this field. (1) Gavinera could come out running for McPeek. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-4-9.
8th race – (3) Alejandro was like a fish out of water on turf and should rebound here on dirt. (4) Decision Maker is also a threat while moving from turf to dirt. (5) Search Engine belongs in the exotics. (2) Scarlet Fusion seems primed for a strong effort here. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-4-5.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 12:39 PM

Woodbine Tip Sheet - September 30

September 29, 2022

WOODBINE TIPS - FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 66% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $14,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 1:10 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	6	Laraque	S Jones
PLACE	4-1	3	Stealth Mission	K Kimura
SHOW	6-1	4	Stolen Money	K Nicholls
WILD CARD	5-2	1	All Time Classic	L Salles

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	2	Unbridled Inferno	N Hein
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Three Mile Limit	O Moreno

* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX

RACE #2 $9,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE INNER TURF - POST TIME: 1:39 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 WILLIAMS CAUSE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	9	Williams Cause	S Jones
PLACE	7-2	3	Free Shipping	K Kimura
SHOW	3-1	4	Kodiak Mamba	E Wilson
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Settebello	S Chernetz

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Pot Committed	L Salles
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	10	Social Justice	S R Bahen

* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/9 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX

RACE #3 $35,700 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 2:08 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	2	Epilogue	S Chernetz
PLACE	6-1	4	War Giant	J Stein
SHOW	5-2	6	Moon Over Montana	K Kimura
WILD CARD	4-1	7	Danis Victory	S Civaci

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Society Joe	N Hein
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	5	Mesa Skyline	K Johnson

* EXACTA: 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX

RACE #4 $60,300 OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 2:37 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 NONNOS LITTLE BOY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	8	Nonnos Little Boy	R M Hernandez
PLACE	4-1	3	Citrus Boy	G Boulanger
SHOW	7-2	6	Repeat the Heat	S Civaci
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Infamous Covert	J Crawford

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	4	Giant One	D Moran
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	9	Classy Whisper	K Kimura

* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX

RACE #5 $101,200 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:11 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 SILVER MAGNATIZED

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	4	Silver Magnatized	R M Hernandez
PLACE	3-1	1	Gal Wonder	J Stein
SHOW	5-2	5	She Makes a Point	D Carroll
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Amazin Queen	D Fukumoto

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Vivid Vixen	E Flores
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	3	Lady Brew	D Moran

* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

RACE #6 $64,300 MAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 3:43 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	5	Where Is Essa	J Stein
PLACE	2-1	6	Mr. De	K Kimura
SHOW	6-1	8	Uptown Lights	C Husbands
WILD CARD	12-1	3	Chunky Monkey	S Jones

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	2	Raise a Profit	L Salles
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Cerebro	E Flores

* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX

RACE #7 $101,200 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:16 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Midway Mischief	S Jones
PLACE	2-1	7	Nikolaou	K Kimura
SHOW	4-1	3	Taranto Titan	D Moran
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Blast in the Snow	P Husbands

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Cupids Dude	R M Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	Tapthespeedofsound	D Carroll

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX

RACE #8 $60,300 OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 4:49 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	4	Pemberley	K Kimura
PLACE	5-2	1	Bequia	L Contreras
SHOW	3-1	2	Who Says	L Salles
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Buttered Toast	S Chernetz

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Keep It Neat	D Moran
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	3	Jolene Jolene	J L Campos

* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/4 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #9 $14,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:21 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	11	Magic Spin	S Jones
PLACE	5-2	9	Mystic Point	K Kimura
SHOW	6-1	10	Red Zeppelin	S Civaci
WILD CARD	8-1	1	Jack Slye	A A Gallardo

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	6	Hardware Gap	E Flores
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Mia and Me	D Fukumoto

* EXACTA: 11-9 BOX, 9-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 9/10/11 BOX, 1/9/10 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 12:41 PM

KRIST PICKS

BELMONT AT THE BIG A - FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2022 // POST TIME - 1:00 P.M. EST
Thursday, 29 September 2022 00:00 | Author: Administrator | PDF Print E-mail

- DAILY SELECTIONS FOR SEPTEMBER 30 -

RACE 1: 3 - SUPER QUALITY 6-1
5 - NORTH POLE 3-1
7 - ABUNDANT HONOR 8-5

RACE 2: 5 - STOP WAR 8-1
2 - LIA MARINA 4-1
6 - THE IMPORTANT ONE 6-1

RACE 3: 7 - PHOTON 5-2
5 - LATEST EDITION 6-1
4 - TARA DANCER 6-1

RACE 4: 1 - GENESIS ONE 12-1 - LONGSHOT
4 - ACTUALIZE 2-1
2 - NECROMANCER 7-2

RACE 5: 1 - SAINT SELBY 9-5
6 - HAPPY FARM 4-1
2 - STAGE LEFT 9-2

RACE 6: 12 - MA MI JO DREAMS 12-1
10 - MOONAGE DAYDREAM 9-2
11 - SLOW DOWN SUMMER 8-1

RACE 7: 9 - FINEST WORK 8-1
2 - MAKE MISCHIEF 3-1
7 - RUNAWAY RUMOUR 9-2

RACE 8: 7 - TWO THIRTY FIVE 6-1 - BEST BET
5 - AMERICAN TATTOO 7-2
3 - WINTER POOL 7-2

RACE 9: 8 - UNRULY JULIE 15-1
3 - PARNAC 4-1
5 - MARKETSEGMENTATION 3-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 12:41 PM

Friday’s Moonee Valley racing tips & quaddie | September 30, 2022
September 29, 2022 8:29 am.
James Herbert

What Moonee Valley Races
Where Moonee Valley Racing Club – Feehan Ave, Moonee Ponds VIC 3039
When Friday, September 30, 2022
First Race 5:15pm AEST

Visit Ladbrokes

Racing returns to Moonee Valley on Friday night, this time for a massive 10-race program in near-perfect conditions. All the talk coming out of Moir Stakes Night on September 23 was the evident on-speed bias throughout the meeting, and with the rail coming out 7m on a track rated a Soft 6, it could be a similar story this week. The night of racing is set to get underway at 5:15pm AEST, with the last race set to go at 9:45pm.
Moonee Valley Best Bet: Savannah Cloud

The Phillip Stokes-trained Savannah Cloud is as honest a horse as you could hope for, finishing no worse than third in seven of his last eight starts. The five-year-old gelding resumed from a near six-month spell with a narrow defeat at Geelong on September 4 when forced to travel wide without cover up on speed. Having drawn barrier one for this assignment, getting caught wide will not be an issue; instead he draws to gain a gun run in transit throughout. He has a win over subsequent Sandown Stakes winner Gentleman Roy from earlier in the year, as well as not being far off the Group 1-quality Yonce back in March as well. He draws to get every favour in the run, and considering he has a win and two minor placings from three starts at Moonee Valley, Savannah Cloud looks a clear best bet of the night.
Best Bet

Race 2 – silks#5 Savannah Cloud (1)

5yo Gelding | T: Phillip Stokes | J: Zac Spain (57.5kg)

$4 with Unibet
Next Best at Moonee Valley: Viviane

With a win and a narrow runner-up result to her name in her two starts this campaign, the Mathew Ellerton-trained Viviane has returned in fine fettle and looks to be one of the better bets of the night. The four-year-old mare has won three times and finished second on two other occasions in her last five starts, suggesting she comes to this BM70 in red-hot form. Considering she already has a win to her name when third-up from a spell, she looks hard to beat. All three of those recent wins came at 1000m, and from barrier four we expect Craig Williams to take up the running and have Viviane set a tempo that her rivals will not be able to match.
Next Best

Race 8 – silks#3 Viviane (4)

4yo Mare | T: Mathew Ellerton | J: Craig Williams (60.5kg)

$2.45 with Neds
Best Value at Moonee Valley: Look Sharpish

The Leon & Troy Corstens-trained Look Sharpish has a strong affiliation with The Valley having won on two occasions from four starts, including at the 2040m which she steps out at on Friday. She won at this track and trip three runs ago back in March when settling at the rear of the field and hitting the line strongly late on. She resumed with a midfield finish on the Pakenham synthetic on August 26 but did enough to suggest she was worth following when stepping out to a more reasonable distance. If Damien Oliver can have her within a couple of lengths of her rivals at the top of the straight, then Look Sharpish will be hard to hold out. Online Bookmakers are giving us around $4.60 for the win, and that is overs.
Best Value

Race 4 – silks#7 Look Sharpish (6)

6yo Mare | T: Leon & Troy Corstens | J: Damien Oliver (55kg)

$4.60 with Bet365
Friday quaddie tips for The Valley
Moonee Valley quadrella selections

Friday, September 30, 2022

4-5-8-10
3-9
7-8-11
6-7-8-9-10

Investment: $180 for 100%

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 12:42 PM

What You Need to Know - Santa Anita | Friday, September 30, 2022

by Jeff Siegel

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Naismith; 3-Lil Bro Coop
Backups/savers: 1-Kawasaki

Forecast: Naismith exits a fast, highly rated straight maiden affair and seems certain to greatly appreciate this return to the high priced maiden claiming ranks. He’s not one to trust – none of these are – but if allowed to display his natural early speed the Richard Mandella-trained colt could get loose on the lead and become very brave. On pure numbers he’s tops in the field. Lil Bro Coop wasted a perfect trip when third in a similar affair at Del Mar last month but based strictly on figures he’s a major player in a soft field. Winless in six starts over the local lawn, the son of War Envoy appears to lack a winning punch but if our top pick fails to fire he’s the logical alternative. Kawazaki is worth tossing in as a saver. He’s assured a ground-saving trip from the rail, and if the addition of blinkers could produce a forward move in what will be just his fourth career start.

Notable Workouts:

Lil Bro Coop (Sept. 16, 4f, :51.3h TT). Grade: B-
In blinkers, slow drill but was just breezing along, final three furlongs in :37.3, never asked. In good shape and probably has some improvement in him.
View Workout Video

__________________________________________________ ___________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 2: Post: 1:28 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Darling Donna
Backups/savers: 1-Crimson Rose

Forecast: Darling Donna takes a significant class drop from starter allowance $50,000 company to this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 seller, and from her cozy outside draw the Vladimir Cerin-trained filly should have every chance to regain her winning form. A repeat of her nine length maiden claiming romp two races back will be more than sufficient, so she’ll get the main punch, but on a ticket or two you may want to consider Crimson Rose as a back-up. She’s reasonably competitive on numbers and the switch to top rider Juan Hernandez has to be considered a plus.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 3: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Bulletproof One; 5-Freedom Flyer
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Ex-classer Bulletproof One, a multiple stakes winner with earnings just shy of $40,000, returns off a 13-month layoff while being risked for a tag ($80,000) for the first time, not really a sign of confidence, although a case could be made that this is where she realistically belongs. Her work tab at San Luis Rey Downs seems a little light, but the barn has superior stats (22% with a strong ROI) with comebackers, so despite the mixed signals we’ll put her on top. Freedom Flyer has been two-turning most of the career, but this route-to-spring angle generally is quite effective over this course and distance, so we’re expecting the daughter of Constitution to have a say in the matter from off the pace. Numbers-wise she’s a good fit with these.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 4: Post: 2:31 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Conundrum; 3-Party Town
Backups/Savers: none

Forecast: Conundrum was out of his element when facing first-level allowance foes earlier this month at Del Mar but this realistic class drop to the restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming ranks should get him back on track. From his cozy outside draw over the extended sprint distance of seven furlongs that has proven to be his favorite trip (two wins from three starts), the Super Saver gelding may be a short price worth taking. Party Town projects as the controlling speed and finished a respectable third under these conditions at Del Mar in his most recent start. This will be his third start in his current form cycle, so improvement is likely. Toss him in on a ticket or two as a saver in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:01 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-A Little Bit Crazy; 5-Candy On Top; 4-Finnley’s Kitten
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Here’s an inscrutable maiden special weight turf miler for state-bred fillies, with none of the main contenders in this six-runner affair appearing trustworthy. A Little Bit Crazy has been trouble prone in her four race career (most of it self-caused) but from her outside draw she should be able to fold over and secure a reasonable spot outside in the clear and then have every chance from there. Never worse than fourth but already a twice-beaten favorite, the Jonathan Wong-trained filly has tactical speed but might be most effective if held up early and produced late. Her speed figures are lower than par for this level, but the other main players are pretty slow, too. Candy On Top is a one-paced grinder with six prior outings but at she did early a career top number – moderate as it was – when finishing third in a similar affair at Del Mar in late August. With another slight forward, move, she’ll be right there. Finnley’s Kitten should be forwardly placed, perhaps even on the lead, and if she can make the running without undue pressure the daughter of Kitten’s Joy may get brave and be hard to catch. This is her seconds start off a layoff (barn has strong stats with this angle), so she deserves a serious look.

Notable Workouts:

Finnley’s Kitten (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3h TT). Grade: B
Did okay under light late coaxing but swapped back to her left lead approaching the wire while finishing in full stride in solo half mile training track drill for V. Cerin. Prefers turf and has a bit of room to improve.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Post: 3:31 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Whiskey Blue; 4-Awesome Pamela
Backups/savers: 3-Starship Sky; 8-Liberalism

Forecast: Here’s another race that requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. Whiskey Blue galloped out better than the line will show in her recent fifth place finish sprint at this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 level, and if she’s ever going to be successful around two-turns, it’ll most likely be in her first try. The daughter of Maclean’s Music doesn’t quite have the speed to be effective sprinting but over a mile in a race without much pace she is likely to be forwardly placed and have every chance against a field of one-paced grinders. A recent bullet half mile workout (:47 2/5, fastest of 60) catches the eye, so let’s go for a price and put here on top. Awesome Pamela has a prior win and has never finished off the board in three prior starts over the Santa Anita main track, so her lack of tactical speed notwithstanding the Black Heap-trained mare must be considered a major player. Her speed figures are average at best but at least she should be finishing from the quarter pole home. Starship Sky and Liberalism may be worth including on your ticket as well, at least as backups. The former is 1-for-25 during her career but at least her sole victory came over the local main strip, while the latter has never routed but, like our top pick, may step forward in her first try over a distance of ground.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:01 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-First Peace; 2-Kid Azteca
Backups/savers: 4-Dr. Soulfire

Forecast: First Peace exits a killer race – the one that Speed Boat Beach set a track record at Del Mar – and under the circumstances actually didn’t run badly in despite winding up sixth, beaten almost 14 lengths. With the switch to grass for his second career start and facing an infinitely easier assignment, the Mark Glatt-trained colt seems certain to improve a bunch, especially if she leaves clean from the rail. The barn’s second time starters usually step forward, so at 4-1 on the morning line there’s some wagering value available. Kid Azteca is the likely choice and one to beat. Back sprinting after failing to see out the trip when a weakening fourth over a mile in his most recent start, the Peter Miller-trained colt retains top rider Juan Hernandez and should be able to settle into a second flight, stalking position and then have every chance from the quarter pole to the wire. As a backup, Dr. Soulfire is worth some consideration. The son of West Coast exits two tougher maiden sprints, tries grass, and continues to show some spark in his morning trials. He might be a late factor with the switch to top turf rider Umberto Rispoli.

Notable Workouts:

Dr. Soulfire (Sept. 23, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B-
Went off quickly in company with Fore Flag (4f, :49h) and was much best while traveling out to the seven furlong pole under mild coaxing only (workmate asked, couldn’t keep up) while coming the final three eighths in :24.3 and :37.1 on our watches. Okay drill for son of West Coast; has a right to improve over a distance of ground.
View Workout Video

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RACE 8: Post: 4:31 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Redline; 6-Traegar
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Redline seems under valued at even money on the morning line and his late-running style probably works best in extended sprints but he’s fast on figures, continues to work well for John Sadler, and should be able to handle this first-level allowance assignment. The barn’s “go-to” rider Juan Hernandez picks up the call. Traegar is much slower on numbers than the favorite but with just two lifetime starts the son of Congrats has plenty of room for further improvement. He’s drawn perfectly outside and can dictate the pace flow throughout. In a race that probably is best left alone, you can use both in rolling exotic play with the main push going to Redline.

Notable Workouts:

Redline (Sept. 16, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B
Maybe a tad second best but did well enough inside Hawker (same time) for J. Sadler, :24.1 and :48.3, neither one asked much. Late-running sprinter has first level allowance conditions available with form that suggests he likes this main track.
View Workout Video

Traegar (Sept. 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.1h). Grade: B-
Not the best of movers (egg-beater action) but went okay in solo five furlong drill for M. Glatt, final half mile in :24.1 and :49.1, ridden some in the final furlong. Might be the type that runs better than he works; comes off solid maiden sprint win at Del Mar and will get tested on the raise.
View Workout Video

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RACE 9: Post: 5:01 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Curly Esa; 3-Kazuhiko; 1-National Generaux
Backups/savers: 2-Tokamak

Forecast: Let’s take another stab with the sprinter-stretching-out angle (see today’s sixth race) in this maiden claiming turf miler for older horses. Curly Esa remains a maiden after eight outings, but this will be his first try around two turns, so it’s possible that he’ll leave his previous form behind by establishing the pace and then getting brave. The barn hasn’t won a race all year (zero-for-23) but based on his sprint figures the son of Munnings has a legitimate price chance. Kazuhiko is an 11-race maiden but has hit the board on six occasions and may be the most dangerous of the closing types. National Generaux earned a much improved speed figure when fourth in straight maiden company at Del Mar in mid-August and not much better will be needed today to put him right there. If you feel you need to spread deeper, consider Tokamak, if for no other reason that he sports the popular blinkers off angle while also facing maiden claimers for the first time.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 12:42 PM

Laurel Park Late Pick 4 Analysis Friday, September 30, 2022

by Frank Carulli

The Maryland racing scene shifts back to Laurel Park, with the popular Late Pick 4 encompassing three route races and a 5-1/2F turf allowance this Friday, Sept. 30. Here’s a look at the action:

LRL 6th race (3:14 EST) -- BOSS LOGIC ‘surged clear in mid-stretch’ to put away the pesky 2-to-1 second favorite and win off the claim by Ness. He ran 1/5 of a second faster than a $15,000/nw3 claiming race on the same card. He met hard-hitting Silent Malice (9-39, $251k) and stablemate The King Cheek ($308k) in his prior two starts. CLOSER LOOK faded from up close to the pace in his last three starts, but he could be better suited to the off-the-pace tactics that produced an allowance runner-up finish at Laurel Park to start the year. In that race, he bid to a clear lead but settled for second behind Treasure Trove, who was embarking on a $111k season.

LRL 7th race (3:44 EST) -- MIT MAZEL is working steadily for her return from a six-month layoff. She has carried her speed to an 8/3-3-1 record at the distance, good for $101k in earnings. She could face front-end pressure, so use CHAMPAGNE TOAST as a backup if the pace collapses. She swung 5-wide entering the stretch and got up to finish second behind stakes winner Trolley Ride (10-37, $407k) in her last start on dirt.

LRL 8th race (4:15 EST) -- The eight Maryland-bred fillies and mares entered in this 5-1/2F turf allowance last won at six different venues – two on the Laurel Park and Colonial Downs lawn, two others in turf-to-dirt races at Pimlico and Delaware Park and the final two on the Laurel Park and Timonium main tracks. More than half the field finished first or second within their last two starts. It adds up to an ‘ALL’ punch in the Pick 4.

LRL 9th race (4:45 EST) – ABSENTEE made a last-to-first move in a route race dominated by closers at Park, but the 2-3-4 finishers in that race arrived in excellent form and are a combined 6-18 since March. BUMPERDOO rallied for three wins and a second in his last four starts, all going long distance, and is the one to beat in here. WALK AWAY JOE, in tight on the final turn, finished third after his rider claimed an objection against the winning favorite last out.

Suggested 50-cent Ticket

LRL 6th Race: 3, 5
LRL 7th Race: 1, 3
LRL 8th Race: ALL
LRL 9th Race: 2, 3, 5
COST: $48

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 12:45 PM

Friday’s Horse Racing Tips: Ascot, September 30th
Stephen Harris Horse Racing Expert

Today’s Horse Racing Tips – September 30th

There are 6 meetings in Britain and Ireland on Friday, with good quality flat racing dominating from Ascot, with the 1m6f listed contest at 3.45pm very much the highlight as some classy stayers are declared over the stamina sapping trip. Supporting all-weather cards at Newcastle and Dundalk will keep the Bookmakers and punters busy, while jumps fans are in for a busy afternoon as the autumn arrives, with competitive low level cards at Fontwell, Hexham and Gowran Park.

Today’s Daily Nap

Sweet William

Ascot 3:10 (UK time)

John and Thady Gosden have maintained an excellent strike rate throughout the season, and this unexposed 3-y-o went straight into the notebook on his debut at Kempton 18 days ago. He missed the break completely and was soon in a poor position racing greenly in rear there, but began to get the hang of things turning for home and ran on really strongly for a closing second under mainly hand-riding. There is sure to be loads of improvement in the tank with that run under his belt, and he is fancied to get off the mark at Ascot on Friday.

Odds: NA
Today’s Value Angle

Perfect Alibi

Ascot 3:45 (UK time)

William Haggas’s progressive stayer has thrived from the front this summer, winning twice at Newbury and showing an excellent attitude for pressure in the process. She pulled well clear of the rest when finding only the smart Hoo Ya Mal too strong last month at Goodwood, and another attacking ride from Tom Marquand should make her hard to pass on the decent ground.

Odds: NA

Odds are best odds available as at 2am September 30th 2022. Odds may now differ.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 12:45 PM

Marketwise Picks
A Winning Day at the Races!

Free Picks & Plays
September 30th, 2022 Free Picks & Plays

Aqueduct Selections

Race 1: Strength Variable:

#3 Super Quality 6-1 16
#7 Abundant Honor 8-5 16
#5 North Pole 3-1 15
#4 Fazaro 10-1 14

Race 2:

#3 Mischievous Dream 3-1 32
#2 Lia Marina 4-1 31
#7 Mail Order 2-1 30
#5 Stop War 8-1 30

Race 3:

#7 Photon 5-2 17
#5 Latest Edition 6-1 16
#6 Succulent 3-1 15
#2 Lem Me Drink 6-1 14

Race 4:

#4 Actualize 2-1 18
#5 Grand Again 8-1 16
#3 Sainthoodforbrian 8-1 15
#6 Upper Level 9-5 15

Race 5:

#2 Stage Left 9-2 34
#6 Happy Farm 4-1 33
#1 Saint Selby 9-5 32
#4 Senbei 3-1 31

Race 6:

#4 Galatrona 8-1 17
#10 Moonage Daydream 9-2 16
#2 Fancypants Juliana 7-2 16
#3 Follow the Fed 12-1 15

Race 7:

#7 Runaway Rumour 9-2 34
#4 Marvelous Maude 5-2 33
#1 Classic Lady 6-1 32
#2 Make Mischief 3-1 32

Race 8:

#4 Pioneer Spirit 10-1 32
#3 Winter Pool 7-2 31
#2 Locally Owned 3-1 30
#5 American Tattoo (ARG) 7-2 30

Race 9:

#3 Parnac (FR) 4-1 32
#1 Diamond Hands 4-1 32
#5 Marketsegmentation 3-1 32
#8 Unruly Julie 15-1 31

Aqueduct Plays

Early Pick 5:

Race 1: 3,7,5,4

Race 2: 3,2,7

Race 3: 7,5,6

Race 4: 4,5,3,6

Race 5: 2,6

$.50 Ticket: $144

Early Pick 4:

Race 2: 3,2,7,5

Race 3: 7,5,6,2

Race 4: 4,5,3,6

Race 5: 2,6,1

$.50 Ticket: $96

Pick 6:

Race 4: 4,5,3,6

Race 5: 2,6,1

Race 6: 4,10,2

Race 7: 7,4

Race 8: 4,3

Race 9: 3

$1.00 Ticket: $144

Late Pick 5:

Race 5: 2,6,1

Race 6: 4,10,2,3

Race 7: 7,4,1

Race 8: 4,3,2

Race 9: 3,1

$.50 Ticket: $108

Late Pick 4:

Race 6: 4,10,2,3

Race 7: 7,4,1,2

Race 8: 4,3,2

Race 9: 3,1,5

$.50 Ticket: $72

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 12:46 PM

TimeformUS horses in focus for Friday, Sept. 30
David Aragona

RACE 2: LIA MARINA (#2)

Mail Order (#7) is the horse to beat even though she finished behind a rival that she meets again here in her last start. This Mott trainee completely blew the start last time, as she hit the gate and broke over a length slowly. To make matters worse, she then quickly rushed up to take the lead, exerting far too energy in the opening quarter. She ultimately paid the price in fading to third. This time the start isn’t as critical with her drawing the outside post position. She also should appreciate the stretch-out to 6 furlongs. That said, she is a horse who has one standout speed figure and will be a short price. I do prefer her to Mischievous Dream (#3), who just picked by second by default last time in a race that may not be as strong as the speed figures indicates. I’ve never been the biggest fan of her and believe she would have to improve. The other Clement runner also needs to take a step forward, but at least Lia Marina (#2) has significant upside. She was never going to be competitive with the talented Spendarella last time, and she was game to win that stakes two back over some horses who have since improved. She started out her career as a sprinter, so this seems like a natural spot to bring her back off the layoff. I also view it as a sign of confidence that Clement had originally entered her in the Pebbles Stakes a few weeks ago before scratching in favor of this race. Strong Odor (#4) had some trouble in her last race at Gulfstream and is another that I could use underneath in her return from the layoff.

:: Get TimeformUS PPs for these races at Aqueduct

RACE 6: GALATRONA (#4)

Showemyourheels (#13) would alter the complexion of this race if she got in off the AE list, because I do think she’d be the horse to beat. She arguably ran the best race of anyone exiting that common July 28 affair at Saratoga, as she got squeezed back at the start and rallied well through traffic for fourth. Like others in here, she’s been entered a few times since then, but keeps getting stuck on the AE list. Fancypants Juliana (#2) and Moonage Daydream (#10) also ran well in that July 28 affair and can improve, but I think there are some other new faces that are a little more intriguing. Ma Mi Jo Dreams (#12) switches surfaces following a dirt debut in which she flashed brief speed and faded. Freud is obviously a strong turf influence, and the dam is a half-sister to a few multiple turf winners, including stakes-placed Amazing Anne and Deciphering Dreams, who were both sired by Freud. Furthermore, Rick Schosberg is 5 for 25 (20%, $4.58 ROI) with maiden second-time starters over 5 years. My top pick is first-time starter Galatrona (#4). Get Stormy isn’t the best debut influence, but he is an underrated turf sire. The dam has produced 6 winners from as many foals to race, 3 of which are turf sprint winners. The best of those is 3-time turf winner Fontanafredda, who is a three-quarter sister. H. James Bond often gives his debut runners a start, but this filly has shown some speed in the mornings feels live with Joel Rosario being tapped to ride.

RACE 7: FINEST WORK (#9)

I’ll be interested to see how the public approaches Make Mischief (#2), who is a real wild card in this lineup as she makes her turf debut in the 21st start of her career. If she merely transfers her dirt form to grass, she’ll be awfully tough for this group to handle. Into Mischief wins with an excellent 14% of his turf route starters, and all 4 of the dam’s other foals to race are turf winners. However, she’s going to take money off her dirt speed figures and those types are often bad bets. Marvelous Maude (#4) might be the horse to beat as she drops back in against New York-bred company. I won’t hold the last-place finish in the Flower Bowl against her, as that was Plan B once the Yaddo was rained off the turf. She’s moved forward with nearly every start, and will be tough if able to build on that open N1X victory from earlier in the Saratoga meet. I think the 9 furlongs suits her, but I don’t love the likely price as Irad Ortiz rides for Chad Brown. Finest Work (#9) finished just behind that filly when they met in that July 30 affair, but I thought she ran just as well in defeat. She had to briefly pause when attempting to rally between horses in the stretch and was finishing well late. She’s been in excellent form all year for George Weaver and seems to be handling any added distance they throw at her. I’m hoping Manny Franco can work out a stalking trip. I would also use Runaway Rumour (#7) if the price is fair. She has lost 10 races in a row since winning the first 3 starts of her career, but I thought her last race represented a significant step in the right direction. She just barely lost to Vigilante’s Way, who is superior to any runner she meets in this lineup. I also like the rider switch to Prat.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 12:46 PM

Rick Lee's Picks Lone Star Park

Friday, September 30, 2022

Lee’s Lock
Race 12
(#2) Two Seven has finished second in
three consecutive races against slightly
better, and she is proven at 400 yards.

Best Bet
Race 3
(#2) Ghost Bear is a stake winning five-
year-old, who is returning to his best
distance, and recent works are sharp.
Best Longshot
Race 2
(#10) Wl Casanova was narrowly
defeated when last seen at today’s class
level, and he’s faced better recently.

10-Cent Superfecta of the Day
The key to hitting a big superfecta is to
find a strong contender who is in a large
and contentious field, such as Kiss My
Shazoom in the ninth.
10 cent Superfecta numbers:
7/2,5,6,9,12/2,5,6,9,12/2,5,6,9,12=$6

Race Selections

1st Race:
(#2) Saint Silkie Aa
(#1) Dimond Gem Aa
(#6) Wma Country Star A
(#4) Wma Grand Finale A

2nd Race:
(#10) Wl Casanova*
(#1) Rjr Spotted Apple
(#6) Pfr Corona N Lime
(#2) Vp Country Smoke

3rd Race:
(#2) Ghost Bear*
(#7) Hodgepodge Hocks
(#4) Im Jess Dashing
(#3) Easter Fools

4th Race:
(#4) Jess the Leader
(#3) Lethal Viper
(#2) Downrite Handsome
(#5) Td Tres Seis

5th Race:
(#4) Dyamites Luck
(#7) Dixie Moon Jagger
(#3) B Tuff Lbh
(#2) Coronas Make Me Wild

6th Race:
(#8) Gorjus Temptress
(#1) Rfire Spirit
(#7) Moonin the Ace
(#4) Orient Xpress

7th Race:
(#4) Dash of Revenant
(#8) Hez Cloned
(#6) Essential Kiss
(#7) Hip National

8th Race:
(#4) Rusted Good
(#5) Leadgend
(#9) Jetsson
(#3) Mr Hemp Perry

9th Race:
(#7) Kiss My Shazoom*
(#2) Mighty B Faster
(#6) The Lad Can Dash
(#5) Lil Southern Sister

10th Race:
(#6) Check Coltons Wagon
(#1) Dancers Pass
(#2) Sheza Jet Too
(#8) Courageous Sue

11th Race:
(#6) Truffle
(#8) Kj Flying Spirit
(#5) War Revenant
(#9) Kas Hes Revenant

12th Race:
(#2) Two Seven*
(#8) Ojd Shez Gon Rogue
(#10) Louisianafamouseagle
(#9) Watchthedirtfly