Saturday 10/1/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2022, 11:08 PM

NCAAF
Week 5

13 of Saturday’s best games
Michigan @ Iowa
Michigan (4-0)
— Michigan outgained Maryland 463-397 in 34-27 win LW.
— Wolverines also beat three stiffs, all by 40+ points.
— 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 85 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Since 2018, Wolverines are 6-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Michigan is 7-5-1 ATS in its last 13 road games.
— Michigan is 14-11-1 ATS in last 26 games coming off a win.

Iowa (3-1)
— Hawkeyes gave up total of 20 points in their three I-A games.
— Hawkeyes’ only loss was 10-7 at home to Iowa State.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 44 starts return on offensive line; junior QB has 19 starts
— Since 2014, they’re 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— Since 2015, Iowa is +65 in turnovers (92 games)
— Since 2018, Iowa is 21-12-1 ATS coming off a win.

— Michigan won last two series games, 42-3/10-3.
— 42-3 win was in last year’s Big 14 championship game.
— Before that, Iowa had won five of previous six meetings.
— Wolverines lost their last four visits to Iowa City (2-2 ATS)
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.

Kentucky @ Ole Miss
Kentucky (4-0)
— Kentucky won its only road game, 26-16 at Florida.
— Wildcats scored 31.3 ppg in their three I-A games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 45 starts back on offensive line; junior QB 13 starts
— Since 2016, they’re 13-8-1 ATS as road underdogs
— Last 4+ years, they’re 12-6-1 ATS as an underdog overall.
— Last 4+ years, they’re 20-10 ATS coming off a win.

Ole Miss (4-0)
— Rebels won first three I-A games, scoring 35 ppg.
— Ole Miss ran ball for 296.7 yards/game in their I-A games.
— Tulsa ran for 262 yards LW in Ole Miss’ 34-27 win.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 111 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 3 games at USC.
— Since 2018, Rebels are 10-6 ATS as a home favorite.
— Rebels are 21-9 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.

— Ole Miss won 42-41 at Kentucky LY; Wildcats ran for 408 yards.
— Rebels won six of last eight series games.
— Over is 3-1 in last four series games.

Texas Tech @ Kansas State
Texas Tech (3-1)
— Red Raiders beat Texas 37-34 in overtime last week.
— Tech lost its only road game, 27-14 at NC State.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 124 starts back on offensive line; junior QB had 11 starts at Oregon
— Last 3+ years, they’re 4-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Tech is 1-7 ATS in last eight games coming off a win.
— Red Raiders threw for 327 yards/game in its I-A games.

Kansas State (3-1)
— K-State got upset 17-10 by Tulane, then won 41-34 at Oklahoma LW.
— Wildcats ran ball for 232.3 yards/game in their I-A games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 50 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 38 starts at Nebraska
— Under Klieman, K-State is 7-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Wildcats are 14-7 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
— Last 4+years, K-State is 24-13 ATS in conference games.

— K-State won six in row, 10 of last 11 series games (9-2 ATS)
— Tech is 1-4 ATS in last five visits to the Little Apple.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.

Oklahoma @ TCU
Oklahoma (3-1)
— Sooners scored 40.3 ppg in their 3-1 start.
— Oklahoma won their only road game 49-14 at Nebraska.
— K-State ran for 275 yards in last week’s 41-34 upset win.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line; soph QB had 25 starts at UCF
— Oklahoma is 7-11-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road favorite.
— Since 2018, Sooners are 4-2 ATS coming off a loss.

TCU (3-0)
— TCU won local rivalry game 42-34 at SMU last week.
— SMU passed for 372 yards LW, gained 476 yards.
— 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 29 starts
— New coach Dykes is 74-63 SU; this is his 4th HC job.
— In his career, Dykes is 9-5 ATS as a home underdog.
— Since 2016, TCU is 4-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

— Oklahoma won last eight series games (6-1 ATS last seven)
— Sooners covered their last three visits to Fort Worth.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.

Illinois @ Wisconsin
Illinois (3-1)
— Illinois allowed 6-3 points in its I-A wins (Wyoming/Virginia)
— Illini lost its only road game, 23-20 at Indiana.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 74 starts return on offensive line; QB started 18 games at Syracuse.
— Since 2019, Illini is 9-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— Illinois is 17-10 ATS in its last 27 conference games.
— In his career, Bielema is 19-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Wisconsin (2-2)
— Badgers are 2-2; they got hammered 52-21 at Ohio State LW.
— Wisconsin also lost 17-14 at home to Washington State.
— Badgers are 4-1 ATS in last five games coming off a loss.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 57 starts return on offensive line; soph QB has 20 starts
— Badgers are 18-25 ATS last 42 games as a home favorite.
— Total yardage in LY’s 24-0 win over Illinois: 491-93.

— Bielema coached Wisconsin from 2006-12.
— Wisconsin won 11 of last 12 series games.
— Badgers won last two meetings, 24-0/45-7.
— Illinois lost last eight visits to Madison (2-6 ATS)

Oregon State @ Utah
Oregon State (3-1)
— OSU was minus-4 in turnovers, lost 17-14 at home to USC LW.
— Beavers have already beaten Boise St/Fresno St, good wins.
— 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line; junior QB 15 starts
— Under Smith, Beavers are 12-5 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last 3+ years, Oregon State is 16-9-1 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— Last three years, Beavers are 11-4 ATS coming off a loss.

Utah (3-1)
— Utes beat couple of I-A stiffs, 35-7/34-13, after 26-23 loss at Florida.
— Florida ran for 283 yards; yardage was 451-446.
— Utes have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 73 starts back on offensive line; junior QB started 12 games
— Utah is 17-8 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Utes are 17-8 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2016, Utah is 36-18 ATS in Pac-12 games.

— Utah won five of last six series games.
— Beavers covered five of last six visits to Utah.
— Over is 4-2-1 in last seven meetings.

Alabama @ Arkansas
Alabama (4-0)
— Alabama won its only road game, 20-19 (-20.5) at Texas.
— Alabama held all four opponents under 80 yards rushing.
— Crimson Tide pounded three stiffs by an average of 43-3.
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 15 starts
— Since 2017, they’re 10-12 ATS as road favorites.
— Alabama is 11-9 ATS last 20 conference games.

Arkansas (3-1)
— Arkansas (+1.5) lost 23-21 to Texas A&M last week in Dallas.
— Hogs gave up 325+ passing yards in three of four games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 15 starts
— Under Pittman, they’re 10-5 ATS as an underdog.
— Under Pittman, Razorbacks are 12-7-1 ATS in SEC games.
— Last two games, Arkansas is minus-4 in turnovers.
— Hogs have run ball for 254.3 yards/game vs I-A opponents.

— Alabama won last 15 meetings (3-4-1 ATS last eight)
— Crimson Tide is 5-3 ATS in last eight visits to Arkansas.
— Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.

Wake Forest @ Florida State
Wake Forest (3-1)
— Wake Forest lost 51-45 in OT to Clemson last week.
— Deacons scored 45-37 points in their two I-A wins.
— Last two games, Deacons gave up 437-559 yards.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 33 starts
— Wake is 25-14 SU last three years (+31 turnover ratio)
— In his career, Clawson is 30-21 ATS as a road underdog.
— Deacons are 11-6 ATS in last seventeen ACC games.

Florida State (4-0)
— Seminoles beat LSU/Louisville by a combined 5 points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 13 starts
— Last 4+ years, they’re 23-27 SU, but 4-0 this year.
— Under Norvell, they’re 3-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 2+ years, they’re 6-2-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2017. FSU is 17-23-2 ATS in ACC games.
— Seminoles scored 34.3 ppg in its three I-A games.

— Wake Forest won last two meetings, 35-14/22-20
— Deacons are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Tallahassee.
— Last seven series games stayed under the total.

Oklahoma State @ Baylor
Oklahoma State (3-0)
— Cowboys scored 58-34 points in its I-A wins.
— OSU gave up 424 PY in 58-44 win over Central Michigan.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line; junior QB has 32 starts
— Since 2015, they’re 9-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— OSU is 18-8-1 ATS last 27 games coming off a win.
— Since 2019, Cowboys are 17-10-1 ATS in Big X games.

Baylor (3-1)
— Baylor won its Big X opener 31-24 at Iowa State last week.
— Bears’ one loss was 26-20 (+2.5) at BYU.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— 119 starts back on offensive line; soph QB has 2 starts
— Aranda is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Bears are 22-10 ATS last 32 games coming off a win.
— Baylor is 19-11 ATS in its last 30 conference games.

— Teams split last six meetings.
— Baylor gained less than 300 yards in last three series games.
— Oklahoma State is 5-5 ATS in last ten visits to Waco.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.

Iowa State @ Kansas
Iowa State (3-1)
— Iowa State lost its Big X opener 31-24 at home to Baylor LW.
— Cyclones won their only road game, 10-7 at Iowa.
— 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line.
— ISU’s new QB is completing 71.6% of his passes.
— Under Campbell, they’re 8-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under Campbell, they’re 20-9-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under Campbell, Cyclones are 32-22-2 ATS in conference games.

Kansas (4-0)
— Kansas scored 55-48-35 points in its three I-A wins.
— Jayhawks gave up 501-446-463 yards in those wins; they were +3 in turnovers.
— 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 89 starts back on offensive line; both returning QB’s have 9 starts
— Kansas is 4-0 SU; last 10 years, they were 18-99 SU
— Since 2017, they’re 7-15 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Leipold is 12-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last three weeks, Kansas ran for 200-280-204 yards.

— Baylor won seven in row, 11 of last 12 series games.
— Bears are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Lawrence.
— Last three series games went over the total.

Texas A&M @ Mississippi State
Texas A&M (3-1)
— Aggies scored 14-17-23 points in its three I-A games.
— Three games were decided by total of 13 points.
— A&M gained 186-264-343 yards in those games.
— Aggies won SEC opener 23-21 over Arkansas LW.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 37 starts back on offensive line; soph QB started 14 games at LSU.
— Under Fisher, Aggies are 4-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Under Fisher, A&M is 19-15 ATS in SEC games.
— Since 2018, A&M is 19-13 ATS coming off a win.

Mississippi State (3-1)
— Miss State lost SEC opener 31-16 at LSU.
— LSU held them to 214 PY; they threw for 320+ yards in their wins.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 82 starts back on offensive line; soph QB 19 starts
— Under Leach, they’re 15-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Leach, Miss State is 18-16 ATS in SEC games.
— Under Leach, Bulldogs are 19-13 ATS coming off a win.

— Teams split last four series games.
— Aggies are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to Starkville.

LSU @ Auburn
LSU (3-1)
— LSU won SEC opener 31-16 at home over Miss State.
— Tigers’ only loss was 24-23 to Florida State in New Orleans.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line; QB started 29 games at Arizona State
— Since 2016, LSU is 10-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his career, Kelly is 29-24-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Tigers are 14-13 SU last 2+ years, after going 15-0 in 2019.
— Last three years, Kelly is 23-10 ATS coming off a win.
— Three of their four games stayed under the total.

Auburn (3-1)
— Auburn was held to 24-12-17 points in its I-A games.
— Missouri outgained them 312-217 LW, but Auburn won 17-14.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 120 starts back on offensive line (4 starters); soph QB has 3 starts
— Tigers are on 4th offensive coordinator the last four years.
— Since 2016, Auburn is 7-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last two games, Auburn ran ball for only 119-82 yards.
— Tigers are minus-6 in turnovers this season,

— Auburn won last two series games, 24-19/48-11.
— LSU is 1-5 ATS in last six visits to Auburn.
— Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.

Stanford @ Oregon
Stanford (1-2)
— Stanford lost its two I-A games, 41-28 to USC, 40-22 at Washington.
— Cardinal is minus-10 in turnovers in three games.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 104 starts back on offensive line (5 starters); soph QB has 9 starts
— 12-21 SU last 3+ years (71-24 the seven years before that)
— Since 2017, they’re 4-10 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last 3+ years, Cardinal are 4-13-1 ATS coming off a loss.

Oregon (3-1)
— Oregon scored 41-44 points in winning last two I-A games.
— Ducks were outgained 571-313 in its opening 49-3 loss to Georgia
— Ducks allowed 439-305-375 PY in their three I-A games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; senior QB had 34 starts at Auburn
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Last 4+ years, Ducks are 8-12-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 6+ years, Oregon is 22-31-1 ATS in Pac-12 tilts.
— Last 2+ years, Oregon is 5-9-2 ATS coming off a win.
— Lanning is Ducks’ 4th coach in seven years; they’re 38-14 SU last 4+ years

— Stanford is 6-4 in last ten series games.
— Cardinal is 4-4 ATS in last eight visits to Eugene.
— Last three series games stayed under the total.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2022, 07:01 AM

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, October 1, 2022

10/01 11:00 AM PT / 2:00 PM ET

CF (163) OREGON STATE VS (164) UTAH

Take: (163) OREGON STATE

Reason: Oregon State is 3-1 S/U and 3-0 ATS after four games. They gave a very good USA team all they could handle last week in a loss, 14-17 as a 6.5-point dog. Their four turnovers to none for USC was their undoing in the loss. The offense has been good, scoring 34 or more points in three of their four games. The offense ranks 56th in the nation. The defense ranks 59th. Meanwhile, Utah is also 3-1 S/U and 2-1 ATS on the season. They are coming off a road win at Arizona State, 34-13, as a 14.5-point dog. The Utes had 465 yards last week to just 267 by ASU. They also had 11 more first downs and 18 more offensive plays. Oregon State has won and covered the last two years vs Utah, including last year's 42-34 win. The Beavers are 9-2 ATS their last 11 games vs a team with a winning record and 7-1 ATS their last eight road games vs a winning team. The road team has covered five of the last seven in this series and the dog is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings. Your free play is on Oregon State.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2022, 07:12 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saturday, October 1, 2022

October 1, 2022
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Quintecents; 3-One More Bid
Backups/savers: 4-Dancing Rinca

Forecast: Quintecents ran well enough to win but settled for second in a hot race at this level at Del Mar last month. A similar effort today from his favorable rail draw should allow the Michael McCarthy-trained gelding to earn his diploma in what will be his sixth career start. Based on speed figures, he appears pretty solid. One More Bid earned a career top number in his only prior outing on grass (a sprint) and the son of California Chrome should be every bit as effective while again stretching out to two turns. He’s been a bit trouble prone so far in his career but with a clean trip today he should be quite competitive. Dancing Rinca, a respectable fourth in the same race our top pick exits, was making his first start in 10 months and has every right to be fitter and stronger today. A :59 4/5 training track drill since raced is encouraging, so toss him in somewhere, at least as a back-up or a saver.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Annie Graham
Backups/savers:

Forecast: Annie Graham just annihilated a $20,000 claiming field by nine lengths and was haltered by Jeff Mullins, who wheels her back at the same level, effectively saying, “if you want her, take her.” Clearly, this daughter of Grazen is not viewed by her new connections as any long term prospect, which makes for a shaky play at or near her morning line of 6/5 (and likely to go lower). You can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or better yet simply pass the race.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Gold Phoenix
Backups/savers: 4-Masteroffoxhounds

Forecast: Gold Phoenix packs a powerful late kick and should be along in time in similar fashion to his Del Mar Handicap-G2 win last month. This is a shorter trip by a furlong, but it shouldn’t matter. Never off the board in five career starts over the Santa Anita turf course, the lightly raced Irish-bred gelding will have to overcome the projected race flow (slow early, fast late) but he did so last time and looked very good doing it. The other main player also hails from the Phil D’Amato barn, Masteroffoxhounds, who was fifth after pressing a crawling pace in the same race Gold Phoenix exits. The son of War Front likes this turf course (in the frame in all five prior outings) but you have to go back to February of 2021 to find his last win. Both can be included in rolling exotic play, with Gold Phoenix deserving of the main punch.

Notable Workouts

Gold Phoenix (Sept. 18, Santa Anita, 4f, :47h TT). Grade: B+
In blinkers, never changed leads but did well in quick training track drill inside Macadamia (same time), final three furlongs in :11.2 and :34.2 while head-and-head throughout without need of undue coaxing. Maintains his edge.
View Workout Video

Masteroffoxhounds (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TT). Grade: B+
Excellent solo training track drill for P. D’Amato, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.2, mild coaxing late. On edge.
View Workout Video

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RACE 4: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Fun to Dream
Backups/Savers: none

Forecast: Fun to Dream was beaten on the square at 50 cents on the dollar at Del Mar last month but finds a logical spot to make amends in her first try around two turns and her first without blinkers. Certainly bred to improve routing (Arrogate), the Bob Baffert-trained filly isn’t particularly fast on numbers and is likely to be over bet but she should be hard to beat, nonetheless. In another race that offers little to no wagering value, you can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply sit it out.

Notable Workouts:

Fun to Dream (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h). Grade: B
Easy solo drill for B. Baffert, :24.2 and :49.1 to the wire before being allowed to gallop out to the seven furlong pole with energy. Have to think she’ll be comfortable stretching out to two turns.
View Workout Video

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RACE 5: Post: 2:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Irideo; 3-Beyond Brilliant
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: This year’s edition of the City of Hope Mile-G2 should boil down to two main players. Irideo, the upset winner of the Wickerr Stakes at Del Mar in July, verified the strength of that performance by earning a career top speed figure when a sharp runner-up in the subsequent Del Mar Mile-G2 last month. Beaten on the square by the extremely talented Hong Kong Harry but losing little in defeat, the Argentine-bred gelding will have to worry about Beyond Brilliant in this one mile grass event. ‘Brilliant can, indeed, be brilliant on his best day – especially when he can establish the running without pressure – and after getting run down late in the Eddie Read S.-G2 at Del Mar in July, the son of Twirling Candy has put together a solid series of workouts that should have him fit and ready. Irideo may be a tad more trustworthy so we’ll give him top billing, but both should be included in rolling exotic play.

Notable Workouts:

Irideo (Sept. 23, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h). Grade: B+
Cruise control in solo half mile main track breeze, easy action while just galloping along looking sharp and ready. Maintains his top form.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Forbidden Kingdom
Backups/savers: 3-Howbeit; 7-Todo Fino

Forecast: Away since April and facing older rivals for the first time while dropping back to a sprint, Forbidden Kingdom has plenty to prove in this year’s renewal of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, but he’s already established himself as a stakes-quality son of American Pharoah with two graded wins on his resume and has shown he can fire fresh, having won his debut during the summer of his 2-year-old season. He’s fast enough on numbers to beat this field and could easily be a better type off the bench after being given the spring and summer off to fill out and mature. Let’s assume that trainer Richard Mandella (25% with a powerful ROI with comebackers) has his fit and ready and make him a rolling exotic single. Those preferring to have some protection should consider Howbeit and Todo Fino on backup tickets. The former is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita main track with the ability to win pressing the issue or from off the pace, while the latter is a talented Chilean-bred sprinter with 10 wins from 15 career starts and certain to enjoy clear sailing from his cozy outside draw.

Notable Workouts:

Forbidden Kingdom (Sept. 28, Santa Anita, 3f, :36.3h). Grade: B+
Hard held in sharp blowout for R. Mandella while gearing up for weekend sprint stakes. Appears to have retained all of his speed and should fire a big shot off the bench.
View Workout Video

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RACE 7: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Gregorian Chant ; 1-Lane Way; 8-Dubai Key
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Here’s a messy downhill slalom event that requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. Several have credentials to win but we’ll give Gregorian Chant the edge on top due to his stellar record (five wins from 11 starts) over the Santa Anita turf course, including a victory over this course and distance in good company earlier this year. He’s capable at any distance up to a mile but has proven to be most comfortable as a late-running sprinter. Lane Way is another prototype turf closer with the proper style for the Hillside Course, and if he can work out a decent trip from his rail draw the Into Mischief gelding should make his present felt late. He enters this race fresh from a career top performance when second in the Green Flash H. to Lieutenant Dan, who is certain to be among the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Dubai Key has plenty of zip and may be the most dangerous of the pace types. He was used hard from the rail in the same race Lane Way exits, gets a better draw today, and will be quite dangerous if allowed an easy opening quarter mile.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Defunded; 4-Country Grammer
Backups/savers: 2-Royal Ship

Forecast: We have to admit, we have no real feel for this year’s Awesome Again S.-G1, a win-and-you’re-in nine furlong main track affair for older horses. The logical top pick, Dubai World Cup winner Country Grammer is one of four entrants from the Bob Baffert barn, but the son of Tonalist was beaten nearly 20 lengths when second to Flightline in the Pacific Classic and workouts since that race have been disappointing. Quite frankly, we don’t know where he's at right now, though we will concede that he is more than capable of winning if he feels up to the task. Royal Ship finished seven lengths behind Country Grammer in the Pacific Classic after soundly beating that rival in the San Diego H.-G2 the previous month. Express Train won the Santa Anita Handicap-G1 here last spring but awful (fourth, beaten 26 lengths) in the Pacific Classic and displayed no interest in a recent workout (see below) leading up to this race. Where does this leave us? Maybe with Defunded, whose recent form has been substandard, but at least he’s working well, and he did finish a strong second in the Hollywood Gold Cup-G1 over the local main track in late May. Perhaps it’s his turn.

Notable Workouts:

Royal Ship (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.1h). Grade: B-
Was far behind Window Shopping (4f, :48.1h) when we picked him up approaching the far turn but was put to some pressure and quickly closed the gap before drawing clear in the final furlong, :11.3 and :35.4 to the wire before continuing out under some coaxing to 7/8 pole in :49.3. Unlikely to have gone as fast as official final time and looked just okay in the process. Hard to gauge.
View Workout Video

Country Grammer (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.1h). Grade: B-
Was outside Azul Coast (same time) for B. Baffert and was slightly in front at the wire but was under urging (workmate not asked much) to finish all out with splits of :24.1, :36 flat, :47.4 and 1:13.1 on our watches (continued out to 7/8 pole under urging to be up in 1:27.3. Not the most willing of workers and the track was deepish today but we still expected more. Question mark leading into the Awesome Again Stakes.
View Workout Video

Defunded (Sept. 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B+
Solo five furlong drill for B. Baffert under mild coaxing through the lane, final quarter in a solid :24.3 over a deep surface. Looks ready to bounce back with a major effort in the Awesome Again S.-G1.
View Workout Video

Express Train (Sept. 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: C+
Under urging form the top of the lane to the wire while managing to get past his breezing workmate Red Flag (5f, 1:00.3h, could have opened up if permitted) in the closing stages with a final quarter mile split of :24.3, respectable final clocking but not visually impressive. Hard to endorse in the Awesome Again S. based on this drill.
View Workout Video

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RACE 9: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Connie Swingle; 9-Island of Love
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Connie Swingle is a perfect two-for-two over this tricky course and distance and is fresh from a career top performance when wearing down her tough-as-nails older stable mate Leggs Galore in a hot turf sprint at Del Mar. She is quick enough to lead throughout if the pace scenario dictates but is equally comfortable settling in the second flight and then blasting home. She is listed at 3-1 on the morning line and that may be a tad generous as the logical top pick. We’ll also include on our ticket Island of Love, turning back to a sprint for the first time since being imported from Italy and with the turn of foot that could be highly effective down the hill. She’s a stakes winner over the local lawn and switches to Joe Bravo, who seems certain to give her the patient ride that will bring out her best.

Notable Workouts:

Connie Swingle (Sept. 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h TT). Grade: B
In blinkers, broke off a couple of lengths behind Virat (5f, 1:00.2h TT) and wound up a half-length back at the wire but was never asked for her best and did well while coming the final three furlongs in :35.3. Maintains her form for P. D’Amato.
View Workout Video

Island of Love (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h TT). Grade: B+
Broke off several lengths behind Rose Dawson (5f, 1:00.1h TT) and closed the gap to finish about a head back at the wire, no real pressure, final three furlongs in a sparkling :35 flat. Might be best suited as a late-running turf sprinter and will get her chance in the Unzip Me S.
View Workout Video

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 10: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference: 10-Ragtime Rose; 2-Mi Mimita; 5-Mizztify Doll
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: This looks like a stronger than par maiden turf sprint for juvenile fillies and it should take a decent prospect to win it. Ragtime Rose was visually quite impressive when breezing a furlong in a smoking 9 4/5 seconds at the OBS April sale, and while she shows no such quick drills since arriving in California for trainer Jeff Mullins the daughter of Union Rags has done everything easily like a quality filly just waiting to be turned loose. Her $525,000 purchase price tells you pretty much what her connections think of her, so at 15-1 on the morning line she represents a good price gamble. Mi Mimita was nailed right on the line by the late-charging Sallys Sassy in an abbreviated dash at Del Mar in late August, joins the strong Jonathan Wong stable, and shows three nice breezes since raced. She’s plenty quick and will take this field as far as she can. Mizztify Doll is a debuting daughter of Mizzen Mast that brought $350,000 at the same sale that Ragtime Rose was sold and she, too, has done everything in the morning for trainer Richard Mandella that has been required. We’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one of the three listed above.

Notable Workouts:

Mizztify Doll (August 26, Del Mar (5f, 1:01h). Grade: B+
Picked her up at the half mile pole inside Kanderel (5f, 1:00.4h) and was hard held throughout while even with older stable mate, splits of :23.4 and :48.1 on our watches, quite nice for R. Mandella while able to go considerably faster if permitted. Moves like a quick sprinter type and should be very live at first asking vs. juvenile fillies sprinting on grass.
View Workout Video

Ragtime Rose (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3hg). Grade: B+
Daughter of Union Rags broke slowly in three-runner gate drill with Itzel (5f, 1:01.3hg) and Rose Rose Rose (4f, :49.3hg) but once in full stride displayed excellent speed despite being under wraps, splits of :24.3, :36.2 and :48.1, quite impressive. If she breaks well in her debut race she could be quite dangerous. Easy to see why she brought $525,000 at the OBS April Sale, where she previewed in a blistering 9 4/5 seconds.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2022, 07:13 AM

Al Cimaglia: Dayton Raceway All Stakes Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 1, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Dayton Raceway has a loaded 12-race card comprised of Ohio Sires Stakes Championships and Grand Circuit Stakes. The other attention getter is Bulldog Hanover tries for his 11th straight win in Race 12. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus.

Realistically, Bulldog Hanover could extend his winning streak to 11, it wouldn't be a surprise. The horse is so dominant he may not lose this year. But if he is going to be beaten, tonight could be the best chance of it happening. Draws outside on a smaller oval with many who will be leaving hard. This race can set-up differently as there could be a bunch looking for first place money rather than positioning themselves to cash a check. So, I will swing against the freak named Bulldog Hanover with a modest $12 investment.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

6-Back Of The Neck (3-1)-Came off the bench with a strong effort to win the Maple Leaf Trot and rolled the back half in 54.1 to sweep by at a nice price. Willing to stick with a horse in fine form and making only the 5th start of the year. Has enough gate speed to be forwardly placed and will count on Tim Tetrick to provide the right journey.

Race 10

3-Test Of Faith (6/5)-Winner of 5 of the last 7 looks like the best with a clean trip and from this post that should be doable. Doesn't usually blast off the gate so there might be some who look to use one or two more in this race. But should be difficult to down from this starting slot, and if dialed on high it could be picture time again.

Race 11

2-Bythemissal (4/5)-This Ron Burke pupil has been at another level. With this post draw it is difficult to envision a loss but it's racing, and anything can happen. Sling Shock (6) could present a challenge, but Chris Page should control this race. Unless Missal is having an off night, passing him down the lane probably doesn't happen.

Race 12

3-American Courage (6-1)-This Alexander trainee can leave in a hurry but can also come off cover. Matt Kakaley knows this 4-year-old very well. My guess is the pedal will be down to land on the point and could get an efficient trip.
4-This Is The Plan (12-1)- Not the easiest to handle at times but Yannick Gingras knows what buttons to push. Wins have been difficult to come by but can dial it up with the best of them at times. The pace will probably be hot, and the price should be right to take a swing.
5-Workin On A Mystery (10-1)-Has tailed off but the post draw gods have not been kind. The Burke pupil could get a decent trip from this spot and David Miller should have him in striking range at a juicy price.
6-Catch The Fire (8-1)-Was dialed on high when put away for a rest in August and didn't fire hot off the bench at Hoosier in the Pacing Derby. Probably the only chance to take a picture, like a few others, is to blast out and hope. Using figuring the program odds are low.
7-Allywag Hanover (7/2)-Even with this post draw the Brett Pelling trainee could land on the point or no worse than the 2-hole. If Todd McCarthy gets the jump on Bulldog, it could make for a miserable trip for the chalk and there should be a cluster trying to do the same. Maybe this will be night for some revenge??
9-Charlie May (9/2)-Chances for a win are heavily compromised with this post draw but recent form has been super sharp and won't be an odds-on favorite here. Will need everything to click but not going to dismiss this 4-year-old with a giant heart.

$2.00 Late Pick 4

6/3/2/3,4,5,6,7,9
Total Bet=$12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2022, 07:14 AM

AI Picks: Laurel & National Saturday Stakes

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2022, 07:14 AM

AI Picks: Gulfstream Mandatory Rainbow 6 | Saturday

September 30, 2022 | By 1/ST BET
With a $410,521 carryover and mandatory payout Saturday in the Rainbow 6, Gulfstream Park will be a focal point for multi-race bettors. The sequence also includes the co-featured Florida Sire Stakes series finales for the fillies as well as the colts and geldings.

Players at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take advantage of a $5,000 hit-and-split promotion on the Gulfstream Rainbow 6. Take down the 20-cent wager and garner not owner your pari-mutuel winnings, but also split an additional $5,000 with other players who win on the two betting platforms.

To assist your handicapping, top selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds.

Gulfstream Park // Race 6 // 2:55 pm ET
#10 Osprey (12-1 ML) | 27% Win Projection

Gulfstream Park // Race 7 // 3:26 pm ET
#2 Noble Drama (6-1 ML) | 32% Win Projection
#5 Dean Delivers (8-5 ML) | 22% Win Projection

Gulfstream Park // Race 8 // 3:57 pm ET
#2 Lynx (8-5 ML) | 26% Win Projection

Gulfstream Park // Race 9 // 4:29 pm ET
#7 Picking Up Pennies (3-1 ML) | 22% Win Projection
#1 The Skipper Too (4-1 ML) | 18% Win Projection
#6 Universal Payday (8-1 ML) | 15% Win Projection
#8 Assertiko (4-1 ML) | 15% Win Projection

Gulfstream Park // Race 10 // 5:01 pm ET
#8 Awesome Strong (7-5 ML) | 25% Win Projection

Gulfstream Park // Race 11 // 5:26 pm ET
#7 Hotter Than July (5-1 ML) | 26% Win Projection

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2022, 07:15 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #7

#2 Air Force Red	Think he winds up getting a good trip on the cutback, and he's probably capable of something better than he showed when facing some of these a couple starts back.
#4 Gregorian Chant	He's a pretty consistent finisher who brings a class edge on some of these, and he benefits if a couple of the potential pace players hook up early.
#8 Dubai Key	He faded late in that Del Mar try while facing similar, and there is some chance he proved best of the speed or prompting types from this draw.
Race Summary	Air Force Red needs his best stuff here, but I think he'll offer a good price with a potentially decent midpack kind of spying trip waiting for him.

Santa Anita - Race #9

#5 Connie Swingle	She was super sharp in her two tries over the local turf course, and she looks likely to get a great trip from right up on the splits while keeping tabs on a couple pace players drawn further inside. Lots to like.
#1 Brandon'smylawyer	She can have a go for it from the fence if they want, but I could see her finding a really cozy trip on the fence while tucked in the pocket if they don't want to force the issue from the inside draw.
#8 Tezzaray	Think she has a little appeal for the gimmicks at a price in here, as she turns back off an even effort going longer in Grade I company last out, and maybe this sharper trip and some class relief helps her outrun her odds.
Race Summary	Connie Swingle should get a great run while right up on the splits, and she draws well to dictate the pace to those flashing speed from further inside.

Santa Anita - Race #10

#10 Ragtime Rose	Willing to take an aggressive stand here in the finale. The Mullins barn doesn't send out many 2-year-old maiden turf sprinters here, but they've connected with three of their four similar runners over the last three years.
#2 Mi Mimita	She moved forward nicely in that second career start when getting on the turf for the first time, and she should be right up on the pace while adding another furlong today. Capable.
#9 Candy Caramel	She's dropping back in with friends after trying stakes company in the last one. Her troubled two-back try keeps her in the mix, but I wouldn't want to be here at too short a price.
Race Summary	Ragtime Rose might get overlooked on the board for a team that has been pretty spot-on with similar runners when they've trotted them out in recent years. I'm happy to single here and take my chances.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2022, 07:15 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Golden Gate - Race #1

#7 ABSOLUTE SCENES (6-1)	Proven miler, fits conditions well, can stalk and pounce from up-close.
#2 BOSSY SOUL (9-5)	Gets class relief, out of town form better than what she showed as beaten fave.
#5 DEL MAR FLASH (5-2)	Plagued by slow starts, finished second in three straight at short prices.
Race Summary	ABSOLUTE SCENES, a four-time winner at one mile, is a worth a price stab under ideal eligibility conditions. She gained 3-wide on the turn but flattened out three starts back at the distance and accelerated on the turn in a pace-controlling win two back. Bet to win and place.

Golden Gate - Race #5

#6 BOB’S VAI (3-1)	Loomed boldly inside for stretch drive, lacked kick, today’s Best Bet.
#5 STEADY TINKERBELL (4-1)	Long series of works, barn strong with 2-year-olds and maiden claimers.
#2 JERSEY STAR (8-1)	Can be excused for latest, led at stretch call in prior pair against better.
Race Summary	BOB’S VAI broke alertly, took back off a contested pace, advanced to third while in-hand at the top of the stretch but lacked late kick. Like her chances a lot with a move forward off her second start. Bet to win and place.

Golden Gate - Race #8

#5 POLACCO (7-2)	Plays catch-me-if-you can on transition from turf sprint victory.
#7 STRAUS’S PLACE (7-2)	Improved position but couldn’t stay with 2-to-1 pace-setting winner.
#1 STAY LIT (5-2)	Found blinkers of little help, stands 9/1-1-4 at one mile this year.
Race Summary	POLACCO had weak company lines in short fields, but he will lead for as far as he goes in his first long-distance test. Hoping he can slow the pace to a walk and not get tired while wandering in the stretch as he did in a 5F maiden-breaking score on the turf. Play 5-1 and 5-7 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2022, 07:16 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park

Delaware Park - Race 11	$1 Double / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
Claiming $6,250 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $26,000 • Post: 5:30P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 1, 2022 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MUTAKAAMIL: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibas e Speed Figure at the distance/surface. STROLL SMOKIN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BAPTIZE THE BOY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designati on or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. OTIS OTIS OTIS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
11	MUTAKAAMIL	7/2	9/2
3	STROLL SMOKIN	10/1	6/1
2	BAPTIZE THE BOY	15/1	7/1
13	OTIS OTIS OTIS	15/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	TOP BOSS	6	15/1	Front-runner	91	79	90.8	75.6	64.1
3	STROLL SMOKIN	3	10/1	Front-runner	102	96	88.4	76.8	73.8
13	OTIS OTIS OTIS	13	15/1	Front-runner	90	90	80.2	81.8	71.8
8	INSTIGATED	8	9/2	Front-runner	96	90	67.2	71.2	57.2
4	BAILEY	4	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	89	85	67.4	82.6	67.6
10	ODDS ON	10	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	92	88	65.6	75.8	60.3
5	MUCHACHO MACHO	5	8/1	Stalker	83	78	45.2	72.8	55.8
2	BAPTIZE THE BOY	2	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	96	89	78.0	81.0	71.0
1	DRIVE BY LAYOVER	1	10/1	Trailer	85	80	75.2	80.0	64.5
12	SAN ANTONE	12	12/1	Trailer	93	83	65.2	83.0	70.0
11	MUTAKAAMIL	11	7/2	Trailer	93	88	58.4	87.8	82.8
7	KEVIN WITTE	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	60	60.0	67.4	43.4
9	CLASSY SOLUTION	9	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	68	52.2	64.8	40.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2022, 07:17 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine

Woodbine - Race 4	Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / 0.20 $100,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • Inner Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $29,000 • Post: 2:37P
INNER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. UNDER THE EYE is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * BELLA NINA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance( sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. CRUMLIN TIME: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CHEEKY PINT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CALL HER JOEY: Hors e has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. STORMY DERBY DAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
5	BELLA NINA	12/1	5/1
2	CRUMLIN TIME	4/1	6/1
6	CHEEKY PINT	3/1	8/1
9	CALL HER JOEY	6/1	9/1
1	STORMY DERBY DAY	5/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	UNDER THE EYE	4	10/1	Front-runner	83	77	75.3	62.6	53.6
8	SAVVY'S SISTER	8	20/1	Stalker	75	76	90.1	62.6	50.6
2	CRUMLIN TIME	2	4/1	Stalker	86	77	88.3	78.6	70.1
6	CHEEKY PINT	6	3/1	Stalker	81	75	83.4	79.0	68.0
5	BELLA NINA	5	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	90	85.6	79.6	69.6
9	CALL HER JOEY	9	6/1	Trailer	76	77	66.8	78.0	72.0
10	CAPOEIRA	10	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	78	75	75.2	79.4	64.9
1	STORMY DERBY DAY	1	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	81	80	69.6	73.8	66.3
3	ANITA GRIGIO	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	78	83.1	67.5	55.0
7	GLOVANNA	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	79	60.8	69.2	54.2
11	STORMY SUZIE	11	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	62	56.8	56.2	34.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2022, 07:17 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Hawthorne - Race #2 - Post: 3:21pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#5 FISHERMAN OSCAR (ML=6/1)
#6 CHI TOWN HUSTLER (ML=3/1)

FISHERMAN OSCAR - This gelding is in nice form, having run a good race on Sep 10th, finishing third. I like the case that this gelding's last speed figure, 51, is tops in this field. Another way to determine class is earnings per race. This thoroughbred has the highest in the bunch. I think he'll be close at the finish. CHI TOWN HUSTLER - Gets help from Rivelli with the addition of Lasix.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 KEEP LEFT (ML=5/2), #7 PRIMAL CAUSE (ML=7/2), #2 STEEL HAWK (ML=5/1),

KEEP LEFT - This filly in all probability won't be very close at the wire. PRIMAL CAUSE - This horse's sire hasn't done too well with 1st timers. STEEL HAWK - Morning line odds of 5/1 make this animal a pass by my standards.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 FISHERMAN OSCAR to win if you can get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2022, 07:17 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13400 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 STAY LIT 5/2
# 2 LOVE OF THE SPORT 4/1
# 8 MESA EMPIRE 12/1

STAY LIT looks competitive to best this field. Could provide positive returns based on very good recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 70. Could best this group of horses based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 69 - of his last affair. Has run soundly when moving a dirt route race. LOVE OF THE SPORT - Ran a strong last race. Has a sharp shot for this event if you like back class. MESA EMPIRE - When a conditioner brings any animal back this soon it is a positive sign.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2022, 07:18 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Meadowlands - Race #3 - Post: 7:56pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $23,500 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#6 FAST COREY (ML=9/2)
#1 LITTLE RED BUTTON (ML=5/1)
#9 WALKS LIKE A LADY (ML=7/2)

FAST COREY - Have to give this race horse a good look. In recent races, has posted the best speed ratings on the turf at this distance. I have to like this filly's winning probability at the shorter distance. The jockey and conditioner combination have a profitable return on investment when they join forces. When I handicap a turf race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This magnificent animal has the highest average class in the entire field. LITTLE RED BUTTON - Based on this mare's recent efforts, she should benefit from this shorter trip. Of all the entrants in today's race only this mare has won on this turf course. This mare has the top turf number in her last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here entrant has a good chance. The recent speed fig of 72 is the best last race speed figure in the group. WALKS LIKE A LADY - I have to like this filly's chances to win at the shorter distance. I wouldn't worry too much about the vacation; this filly is ready to run today. This trainer brings horses to the turf fit and ready to go, winning over 20 pct of the time under similar conditions. When a thoroughbred drops at least 5 lbs (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but could be helpful.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BALI BABY (ML=3/1), #3 PATTY CAKES (ML=6/1), #7 TALE LIGHTS (ML=8/1),

BALI BABY - You have to be concerned that this vulnerable equine added bandages last time out. Garnered a common speed rating in the last race in a $30,000 Claiming race on Aug 29th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure. PATTY CAKES - This filly made little impact last time out of the box. This filly earned a fig in her last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's event. TALE LIGHTS - Any horse coming out of a route affair should show some zip to compete with the sprinters. This racer ran a somewhat easily forgotten rating last race out. She shouldn't improve and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 FAST COREY to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2022, 07:18 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 89

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 FIRST PANTHER 2/1
# 1 SOMEBODYS BABY 8/5
# 8 BIG DREAM BABY 7/2

FIRST PANTHER looks strong to best this field. She has been running soundly recently while recording strong speed figures. Recorded a solid speed figure last time out. With a nice class rating average of 87, has one of the strongest class advantages in this field. SOMEBODYS BABY - Solid average Equibase speed figs in short races make this animal a contender. Will almost certainly go to the front end and might never look back. BIG DREAM BABY - The speed figure of 60 from her most recent contest looks respectable in here. Is tough not to consider given the company run in lately.