Saturday 10/8/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369858

    #61
    Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


    Keeneland - Race #2
    #3 Magical Lute The Churchill debut back in June was pretty solid, and she didn't have quite the same late kick when stretching to a mile there last month. Let's see if she can come alive late at a mid-range price.
    #12 Humbling Think she's probably ready to go at first asking, and she gets a great draw to spy everything as it unfolds from out here. Get a look on the track and tote.
    #5 Stay Fabulous Barn can get them ready to go in a spot like this, and there isn't a ton of proven performance on paper in here, so she can land a piece of this at first asking.
    Race Summary Magical Lute intrigues most of those with experience as she gets back to this six furlong trip after a modest mile try last out, and I'm hoping a few firsters will show some pace early on to set the table for her late.
    Keeneland - Race #9
    #12 Good Heart Plenty interesting that he's back on the dirt in Grade I company when there'd be a perfectly good graded race on the turf for him here this meet, and I think he should find a good spot while relaxed behind sharper forward players.
    #13 Two Phil's He's getting a big class test here while stretching around two turns, and there's a real chance he gets caught up in an early battle and packs this in by midway around the far turn. That said, there is some route pedigree here, and I think he has a little appeal at what should be a big price.
    #7 Forte Grade I winner looks tough with something like his last, but he's moving around two turns for the first time and probably gets overbet in what might be a fairly competitive field.
    Race Summary Have to think #2 Loggins is another main player here after smashing some maidens by better than eight lengths at 4/5 in the debut run, but Good Heart catches the eye for me off the good Kentucky Downs maiden score, and nobody would've blamed them for using that race as a springboard to the BC Juvenile Turf, so I like the move to the dirt for a Grade I try right now.
    Keeneland - Race #10
    #12 Set Piece Think there are enough forward players signed on in here to give this finisher a chance on the rise after an easy score last out at Pimlico, and I would like to see him quite a bit further off the pace here than he was in his local start with Grade I company this spring.
    #7 Santin Love this guy's overall form, and I like that he was effective going a mile early in his career, but he's going to have to finish from further off it this time around than he did winning the Arlington Million at Churchill.
    #6 Ivar He would benefit if the pace heated up, and he has historically run really well over this course. Wouldn't be shocked at all to see him pick these up late -- should be on the tickets.
    Race Summary Set Piece is not a horse I've been all that enamored with throughout his career, despite earning nearly a million dollars. Still, I think the race shape flatters his running style, and I'd love to see Rosario commit to dropping back and saving some ground early on before launching a late rally. Price might be right.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369858

      #62
      Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


      Hawthorne - Race #1
      #3 BELLS OF JOY (6-1) Seeks return to prior Hawthorne form, good price play against suspect faves.
      #6 QUE PASA MUFASA (5-2) Dueled through fast splits and held third off three-month layoff for $5k.
      #1 RUNNERS HEAT (7-2) In good recent form, figures up close from the rail for new connections.
      Race Summary Interesting race in that the three morning-line favorites didn’t run as good as their recent in-the-money finishes indicate, considering the race favorites were basically eliminated by troubled starts. That means BELLS OF JOY gets the call by default in hopes that she runs back to her best races at Hawthorne. She failed badly in two recent starts at Fan Duel but broke her maiden here at this level and distance, then ran second to odds-n fave Joy Enamorada, who came back to finish second in a $7,500/nw3 sprint. Play 3-1, 3-5, 3-6 and 6-3 exactas.
      Hawthorne - Race #2
      #4 COCO BRAVADO (9-2) Went well at Hawthorne in the spring against better, for then 10-pound apprentice.
      #2 SONNYISNOTSOFUNNY (5-2) Lone three-race winner in field won at Oaklawn in prior try on dirt.
      #1 TODDLES (6-1) Finished 1-2-3 in his last three starts at this level, draws rail.
      Race Summary COCO BRAVADO rallied for a win, a second and two thirds this spring at Hawthorne, should get ample pace flow in front of her and sheds 5 pounds on the class drop. It adds up to a decent value play at 9-2 on the morning line. Bet to win and place.
      Hawthorne - Race #5
      #5 EMERALD PRINCESS (6-1) Versatile, often in the winning hunt, sheds 8 pounds, good value play.
      #8 JETS A GINNIN (4-1) Well-traveled 7yo impressed the last time she ran on Hawthorne main track.
      #7 PURR SEA (5-2) Won back-to-back Illinois-bred stakes to cap her freshman season at Hawthorne.
      Race Summary EMERALD PRINCESS arrives for her first start at Hawthorne with a solid sprint resume, nearly $100,000 in earnings in 15 starts and a 6-1 morning-line price that warrants a win and place bet. She ran a big race at Canterbury three starts ago, was no match for Hotasapistol (5-23, $215k) as the favorite last out, now gets in light-weighted.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369858

        #63
        Here are your week 6 WINNERS from Scott Van Pelt!

        Navy + 6 vs Tulsa
        Indiana + 22.5 vs Michigan
        Bowling Green + 2 vs Buffalo
        Florida State + 3 vs NC State
        LSU + 3 vs Tennessee
        Army + 17 vs Wake Forest
        Arizona + 13 vs Oregon
        Iowa State + 1.5 vs Kansas State
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369858

          #64
          Goodfella

          Oregon Over 70
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369858

            #65
            Greg Shaker

            Auburn/Georgia under 49.5
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369858

              #66
              Tony George

              NCAAF
              Oregon State -5.5
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369858

                #67
                VegasInsider

                Kevin Rogers

                NCAAF
                Oklahoma +7

                Brian Edwards

                NCAAF
                Alabama -14 – 1st Half
                Florida -11
                NC State -3
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369858

                  #68
                  R & R Totals

                  South Carolina - Kentucky over 49.5
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369858

                    #69
                    The Gold Sheet

                    UTSA -6.5
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 369858

                      #70
                      Mikey Sports

                      Bowling Green +1.5
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 369858

                        #71
                        Pure Lock

                        Florida -11
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 369858

                          #72
                          Bryan Leonard

                          Northwestern +9.5 (-115)
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 369858

                            #73
                            Tokyo Brandon

                            Cincinnati Total Under 42.5
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 369858

                              #74
                              VegasInsider (Devin Walker)

                              NCAAF
                              Duke -2.5 (-120)
                              Coastal Carolina -13.5 (-112)
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                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 369858

                                #75
                                VegasInsider

                                Kevin Rogers

                                NCAAF
                                Oklahoma +7

                                Brian Edwards

                                NCAAF
                                Alabama -14 – 1st Half
                                Florida -11
                                NC State -3

                                Adding:

                                Kevin Rogers

                                NCAAF
                                TCU -7
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