Service Plays Sunday 10/16/22

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Jason Sharpe

8 Unit Play Take #264 Miami +3 over Minnesota (1:00pm est):

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Jeff Ma- 15-10 record.
Dolphins
bengals
panthers
Eagles
Chiefs

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Milan Wolkosky

20* Cincinnati Bengals -2

20* Jacksonville Jaguars +2

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Milan Wolkosky


20* Cleveland Browns -2




10* New York Jets +7

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Mike Missanelli
Nfl
Ravens

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Doc Sports

7 Unit

Indianapolis Colts -2

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Lee Sterling

45 Bills

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Vernon Croy

7* Colts -2

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WUnderdog

nfl

Minnesota@Miami 45.5 Under

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Potato Kmish

Colts-115
Falcons +5
Broncos +5
Browns -2.5
Bills -2

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ROOT:

Contrarian: Browns -2.5
Chairman’s: Chiefs +3
Reserve: Falcons +4.5
Gold Standard: Saints +3
Pinnacle: Steelers +10

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Joe's Da'mico 13-1 NFL TEN DIMES WINNER

San Francisco 49ers

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SportsBook Breakers

NFL 2022-10-16 1:05 PM : Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers 10 Y840U0850 units
4-STAR PITTSBURGH over Tampa Bay – The Steelers got absolutely thrashed last week. But prior than that they had not lost by more than 5 points if you take away a final play lateral defensive touchdown against Cleveland. A lot of teams are going to look silly against Buffalo this season but Tampa Bay is not that caliber of a team.
Tampa Bay is 3-2 on the season and a huge favorite here. Teams which are more than TD favorites which have won less than 62.5% of their games are a play against.
But a hidden note about Tampa Bay’s recent games is they have played 3 straight at home and things cane look different on the road. Teams which are away favorites after playing at least three straight games at home are 40-60 ATS.
Pittsburgh generally finds a way to be competitive as a home dog. The Steelers are 8-0-1 ATS since November 2013 as a home dog against teams other than the Patriots.
Last week in Buffalo they lost 38-3. Teams which lost by 31+ points last game are 198-154 ATS.
Historically, Pittsburgh has recovered well after big losses. The Steelers are 12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS since 2000 coming off a 20+ point loss.
It was the second quarter that undid Pittsburgh in that game as it went from 10-3 to 31-3. Teams which were outscored by at least 21 points in the second quarter of their last game are 94-70 ATS.
As a 14-point dog, Pittsburgh failed to cover by 21 points in that game. It was the fourth straight game they failed to cover. Teams that have not covered in any of their last four games and failed to cover by more than 10 points last game are 172-135 ATS.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Tampa Bay 24, PITTSBURGH 23

NFL 2022-10-16 1:05 PM : New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers
PICK: Green Bay Packers -7.5 Y840U0850 units
4.5-STAR GREEN BAY over Ny Jets – Green Bay is coming off back-to-back sloppy performances, the last one catching up to them by blowing a double-digit lead. They are getting a Jets team off a huge win but not as good as their record suggests, and Green Bay should finally get that big win here.
These teams had far different expectations entering the season. Green Bay had a win total entering the season of 10.5 while the Jets were at 5.5. In the first nine weeks of the season, teams that have a regular season win total at least four wins more than their opponent are a play on.
But New York is now 3-2 and won big over Miami last week 40-17. Teams in the first 9 weeks of the season who had a regular season win line less than 7.5 and won by 7+ last game are 36-64 ATS.
That win came as a 3 points dog. The Jets are 0-14 ATS since January 2011 coming off a upset win as more than a two-point dog where they scored more than 24 points.
That 26-point cover was 11.5 more points than any other game the past two seasons. Teams that covered by at least seven points more last game than any of their games this season or last are 97-134 ATS.
Green Bay meanwhile was in London last week and lost to the Giants 27-22. The Packers are 8-0 ATS since 2018 coming off a loss as a favorite.
As 8.5-point favorites they failed to cover by 13.5 points. The Packers are 11-0 ATS since November 2017 in the regular season after failing to cover by at least 10 points last game.
Green Bay’s offense got off to a fine start but let up in the second half. The Packers are 16-0 ATS since December 2017 as a 2-9 point favorite when they scored less than 27 points last game.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: GREEN BAY 31, NY Jets 13

NFL 2022-10-16 1:05 PM : Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts
PICK: Indianapolis Colts -2 Y840U0850 units
4-STAR INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville – The only reason anyone would think the Colts are worse than the Jaguars this season is expectations. The Jaguars have played some really good games and some really poor games. But Indianapolis has the better record than Jacksonville five weeks in to the season, had much higher expectations coming into the season, yet are barely favored in this game.
That is because everyone has the 24-0 Jaguars beatdown of Indianapolis fresh in their minds. Teams that scored less than nine points as favorites in their last meeting with a divisional opponent are 99-75 ATS.
Indianapolis is 2-2-1 on the season but came into the year with a win total of 9.5 Teams in the first seven games of the season that have won less than 50% of their games despite having a win total of more than 9 entering the season are a play on.
Despite being ugly at times, Indy got a nice 12-9 win over Denver last week. Teams off a win as a dog that scored no more than 17 points are 253-195 ATS.
And the Colts tend to improve after very low scoring games. The Colts are 6-0 ATS since December 23, 2017 when they scored less than 14 points last game.
Jacksonville lost to the Texans at home last week, 13-6. Jacksonville had 422 total yards in that game and turned those into just six points. Teams that gained at least 300 total yards last game but scored less than 7 points are 47-73 ATS.
Jacksonville was a 7-point favorite in that game. The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS since November 2019 coming off a loss where they were not a 3+ point dog.
They got to the red zone three times but did not score a touchdown. The Jaguars are 0-12-1 ATS (-11.33 ppg) since December 2008 off a home game after a game in which they failed on at least three red zone attempts.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: INDIANAPOLIS 27, Jacksonville 16

NFL 2022-10-16 4:10 PM : Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks
PICK: Seattle Seahawks 2.5 Y840U0850 units
4-STAR SEATTLE over Arizona – The end results of Arizona being 2-3 considering the schedule they have played are not horrible considering the teams they have played. But the way Arizona has got their has been questionable. The idea of Arizona being a road favorite right now, against a team that can move the ball none the less, is not appealing.
This is the first time Arizona is playing as a favorite this season. Teams that are favorites for the first time on the season in week 6 or later are 45-64 ATS.
And at any point being a favorite after several straight games as a dog is a red flag. Teams that are favored after at least four straight games as underdogs are a play against.
Just last week, Arizona was a 5.5-point home dog against Philadelphia, losing 20-17. Teams favored by at least two points on the road after playing as a dog of at least three points at home last game are a play against.
Seattle led last game 10-3 after one quarter, and still led at half but lost 39-32. Teams which led by at least a TD after one quarter last game and allowed at least 33 points are 170-122 ATS.
The 32 points were 8.75 more than their team average heading into that game. The Seahawks are 23-2 ATS since 1997 coming off a loss where they scored at least 5.5 points more than their season-to-date average
Seattle had 396 yards of total offense in that win. The Seahawks are 10-0 ATS since 2018 at home coming off a loss where they had at least 250 total yards.
On the ground alone they had 151 rushing yards. Home dogs which lost last game despite rushing for at least 150 yards are a play on.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: SEATTLE 28, Arizona 21

NFL 2022-10-16 4:30 PM : Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
PICK: Over 54 Y840U0850 units
4.5-STAR Buffalo and Kansas City Over – Buffalo’s nearly gone under in every game this season despite an offense that throws constantly and is super dynamic. Both teams know they will need to aggressive here and should early and often.
Kansas City is in the spot as an underdog where they will be aggressive. The Chiefs are 9-1-1 OU since December 31, 2017 as a dog.
That is also the case in this high scoring game and Buffalo should be up to the challenge. The Bills are 13-2 OU in games with a total over 52.
The total in their last game vs the Steelers was just 44.5 Since 2010, when the total has gone up over seven points from last game are a play over.
As a 2 TD favorite, Buffalo still early covered in a 38-3 win. The Bills are 12-1 OU since December 21, 2019 on the road coming off a game where they covered.
Despite leading big most of the game, Buffalo still ran the ball just 18 times. Teams coming off a win by more than seven points where they rushed the ball no more than 23 times are 147-98 OU.
Kansas City’s offense is nothing to sneeze at either with 7 passing touchdowns over just their last two games. Teams that have thrown for 3+ TDs in back-to-back games are a play over.
KC’s run defense had been quite stout with 3 games allowing no more than 82 rushing yards. However, the Raiders ran for 155 yards in that game. Teams that allowed at least 120 rushing yards last game after three straight previous games no more than 90 yards rushing are 134-109 OU.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: KANSAS CITY 35, Buffalo 34

[GetTheseDimes]

Parbfather: 10* GOM Giants +5.5. He’s also a big fan of the Sprinkle

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The Money Train
Falcons +4.5
Dolphins +3.5
Bengals -2.5
Bills -2.5
Seahawks +3