Service Plays Sunday 10/16/22

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AL DEMARCO - GM

Total of the Month

The Pick: 15 Dimes - Bills/Chiefs Over

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SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS part II


4-STAR Minnesota and Miami Under 45.5 Miami was caught off guard having to turn to Skylar Thompson last game and everything fell apart. But with a week to prepare now expect a very conservative and an even more run heavy focus from Miami that puts the game on their defense.


Minnesota is 4-1 on the season but its has not been super convincing. They have won the last three games while not covering any of them. Teams that are above .700 on the season but have failed to cover at least two straight games are 137-180 OU.


Last week they defeated Chicago 29-22. But they limited the Bears to just 47 plays in that game while running 74. Since 2016, teams coming off a game where their opponent ran less than 54 plays are 150-213 OU.


Miami was a three-point road favorite last week vs the Jets. They are not three-point home dogs in this game. Home teams coming off a road game where the line was at least six points lower than this game are 127-171 OU.


Miami lost that game 40-17. The Dolphins are 1-7 OU since 2018 when they allowed at least 38 points last game.


Miami already started running the ball more in that big loss to the Jets. They ran for 137 yards in that game after having no more than 85 in any other game this season. Teams that rushed for at least 115 yards last game after three straight previous games rushing for fewer than 90 yards are 98-144 OU.


SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Minnesota 19, MIAMI 17


4-STAR San Francisco and Atlanta Over 44.5 After 3 straight games with at least 50 points scored, Atlanta last two games have slowed down in pace as they have tried so ball control methods.


San Francisco had a big scoring game last week against Carolina, winning 37-15 in a game that went comfortably over the total. The 49ers are 8-0-1 OU since October 2019 as a regular season favorite of at least four points when their last game went over the total.


But this is still a lower total game and those have been going over for Atlanta. The Falcons are 6-0 OU since 2021 when they are not at TD+ favorite when the total is under 46


Last week, Atlanta lost to Tampa Bay 21-15. But they covered by 4.5 points as a 10.5 point dog. The Falcons are 5-0 OU since 2016 coming off a loss where they covered by at least 2 points.


Tampa Bay led the whole way against Atlanta in that game yet still threw the ball 52 times. Teams coming off a loss by more than three points where their opponent threw more than six passes more than league average are 292-223 OU.


And they threw the ball with success for 351 yards. The Falcons are 7-0 OU since 2016 when the total is no more than 52 and they allowed at least 300 passing yards last game.


Atlanta ran the ball for 151 yards in that game but it was not enough. Home dogs which lost last game despite rushing for at least 150 yards are 95-58 OU.


SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: San Francisco 31, ATLANTA 27

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lee Sterling

45 BUFF
30 Zona
25 over ATL
25 Cincy
25 PITT

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MTI

4.5 Giants +5.5
4.5 TB/PIT o46
4 Jets +7.5
4 CLE/NE u43
4 CAR/LAR u41.5
4 SF/ATL u45
4 BAL/NYG u45

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FEZZIK

Added

2*. Patriots +3
2*. Josh Allen Ov 47.5 rush yards
2*. Jeff Wilson Ov 65.5 rush yards
2*. Mariota Un 199.5 pass yards

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Mti teasers
saints-patriots
saints=-chiefs
chiefs-patriots

[FATMANWINS]

kelso
15 guardians

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PROFOOTBALLDOC (15-8-2 for season)
SIC Score is our proprietary numerical injury grading system that incorporates the health of every NFL team and individual players to give sports bettors, DFS players and fantasy owners an edge each week during the season. While it purposely doesn’t take into account coaching, schemes or matchups, SIC Scores give an accurate assessment of team/player overall health heading into a game.

Vikings -3
The Vikings are healthy and the Dolphins are not at key positions. Two QBs still out with concussion means third stringer Skylar Thompson starts with both starting tackles dealing with injury issues. Both wide receivers are playing thru muscle strains and both starting cornerbacks are hampered. Surprised the line is back to 3 as it seems clear which side is in better shape.

Falcons +4.5
A double digit SIC score advantage here as the 49ers were the biggest health score downgrade of the week by 8.9 points. San Francisco has a top rated defense but it is now missing over half its starters. Six players including 3/4ths of the defensive line, key LB, CB and safety. The Falcons have their own health issues but are much better positioned this week. Earlier this week, we liked the game at +6 but for this article, we always use the Sunday am lines.

Bengals -2.5
Whoever is playing QB for the Saints has no WR targets. Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave are all out. The Bengals are overall healthy. Even if Tee Higgins can’t play, Ja’Marr Chase will have a favorable matchup with #1 CB Marshon Lattimore out.

Panthers +10
Yes, Carolina fired the head coach and P..J. Walker is starting at quarterback but this pick is based on cluster injuries. The Rams interior offensive line is down to second and third string and up the middle pressure leaves and immobile Matt Stafford with no where to step up. With a healthy Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers can keep it close.

Eagles -6.5
Still no Dak Prescott and although Cooper Rush is 4-0, the clock might be striking midnight with the Eagles defense. Dallas has pass catcher and offensive line issues and Micah Parsons groin injury is something to watch, The Eagles are healthy and at home for this big NFC East showdown.

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Michael Lombardi on VSiN

Bills -2.5
Ravens -5.5
Broncos +4.5
Dolphins +3

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Clay Travis (18-12)

Colts -1.5

Vikings -3

Steelers +10

Cardinals/Seahawks Over 50.5

Giants +5.5

Bills -2.5

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Warren Sharp
256 Indianapolis Colts Under 42 (1 unit)
255 Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 (1 unit)
257 New England Patriots Over 42.5 (1 unit)
259 NY Jets Over 45 (1 unit)
251 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 42.5 (1 unit)
Teaser: 251 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 to 257 New England Patriots +8.5 (1 unit)
264 Miami Dolphins -1 (1 unit)

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CIRCA Million Week 6 Selection Count

Bengals -1.5 (1,863)
Bills -2.5 (1,230)
Bucs -8 (1,169)
Cowboys +6 (1,117)
Dolphins +3.5 (1,111)

[Longslab242]

Any Indian cowboy

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Brad Feinberg

Colts

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The Hitman

1* Darrell Henderson (LAR) Under 59.5 Rush Yds - good down to 55.5.