Saturday 10/15/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Mile
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 64

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2022 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,000. ALBERTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 THE RIVER GREY 5/1

# 9 LIL MISS MUD 3/1

# 3 WHITEROSE SPIRIT 20/1

THE RIVER GREY is the most respectable bet in this race. With Marti controlling the reins on her, this filly ought to be able to break out early for this event. Should be given a shot in this competition if only for the solid speed figure garnered in the last outing. She has a good opportunity here as conditioner, Brown, has very solid win clip with horses going this distance. LIL MISS MUD - Is a key contender - given the 65 Equibase Speed Fig from her most recent race. Cumberbatch has been on fire the last month, winning at a nifty 23 percent rate. WHITEROSE SPIRIT - I like Bryan on this filly to give her a competitive chance to hit the wire first.

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Aqueduct
PURCHASE

10/15/22, BAQ, Race 5, 2.46 ET
10/15/22,BAQ,5,6F [Dirt] 1:07:03 CLAIMING. Purse $28,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since April 1 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI
100.0000 4 Holey Matrimony 4/1 Gomez J A Atras Rob SFEC 61 40.98 1.34/$1
096.7753 9 Got the Gold 5/2 Franco M Camejo Jose M. JT 22 54.55 1.81/$1
096.4004 2 Street Culture 7/2 Lezcano J Rice Linda 148 16.22 1.17/$1
096.0115 7 Last Minute Mario 12/1 Carmouche K Catalano. Jr. Michael 181 36.46 1.11/$1
095.6520 3 Mister Larry 15/1 Davis D Noda Orlando 270 35.56 1.06/$1
094.9706 1 Maxim Moment 3/1 Cancel E Jacobson David 270 35.56 1.06/$1
094.8708 5 Raw Courage 20/1 Adorno A Toscano. Jr. John T. W 270 35.56 1.06/$1
094.4793 1A Shardial 3/1 McCarthy T Jacobson David L 53 22.64 1.45/$1
093.1994 6 Cajun Commander(b-) 12/1 Hernandez Moreno O Barrera. III Oscar S. 181 36.46 1.11/$1
092.7484 8 Lord Brownie 20/1 Harkie H K Sciacca Gary 270 35.56 1.06/$1
Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 30.04, ROI 0.91/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -3.2247
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Best Closer -with-
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Not Less Than Today

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Belmont at the Big A Hotlist - October 15

October 14, 2022

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, October 15, 2022
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3rd race [NY, Alw 85000 N1X, 7F] – (1) Blitz to Win made a huge improvement in his second start of the year earning a career high speed figure while running second. (2) G Munning ran fourth and then second in a pair of starts at this level at Saratoga. (3) Dangerous Edge was fourth at Saratoga twice in these NY-bred allowances for Rob Atras. (5) Salute to America returns from an April layoff as a new gelding and is from the My Racehorse microshare partnerships.

4th race [Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (3) Western Lane (B) returned from a long layoff for a new trainer and broke last, had to alter course, and then rallied up the rail for fourth. She will stretch back out. (1) Sareeha made two starts in America for Graham Motion with the first being on the Tapeta at Woodbine and then a good second on the turf in a Belmont at the Big A race. (6) Kinchen made her 2022 debut last month and lost all chance in the early going when she had to check and was forced to six-wide. (7) Mozay has seven top three finishes for Bill Mott as she still looks for the maiden win.

5th race [Clm 16000 N2L, 6F] – (9) Got the Gold ran third after pressing the pace and was claimed for $16,000 by Jose Camejo who wins with 29% of his newly claimed runners. (7) Last Minute Mario broke his maiden at Parx for $25,000 and then tried a pair of starter allowances. He was on the lead in all of his starts. (1A) Shardial broke his maiden for $20,000 at Los Alamitos last month and was purchased by David Jacobson as part of his return to racing. (4) Holey Matrimony ran twice in 2019 when he won his debut at Aqueduct and then was second in an allowance, both against NY-breds. Now, he returns as a gelding for Rob Atras and the original owner/breeder after more than three years away for racing.

9th race [Sands Point (G2), 1 1/8 mi TURF] – (6) Hail To (A) won an allowance from the 11 post-position after a poor trip earning a career best speed figure as she returns to stakes racing. (3) Eminent Victor runs for Chad Brown who has dominated this race recently. Last time she had trouble in the Lake Placid (G2) after having finished second by a nose in the Lake George (G3) at Saratoga. (9) Pizza Bianca will make her first start since running at Royal Ascot in June. In her first five starts she never ran worse than second with two stakes wins including the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. (2) Vergara is in fine form right now with a win in the Dueling Ground Oaks at Kentucky Downs and a second in the Ontario Cotillion (G3) at Woodbine for Graham Motion.



Best bets: Blitz to Win (3rd); Got the Gold (5th). Best value: Western Lane (4th); Hail To (9th).

Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 3-5

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Keeneland Hotlist - October 15

October 14, 2022

Today’s Keeneland Hot List races to watch
Saturday, Oct. 15, 2022

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (5) Backsideofthemoon (B) owns a two-race win streak and can make it three here. (1) Mr. Tip could wake up in a claimer. (7) Second of July should be more competitive in a claimer. (6) Frosted Grace was a game second and will be a contender here. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-7. Doubles: 1-5-6-7 with 1-8-11-12.

2nd race – (11) Evaluate didn’t fire in his career debut but can rebound here. (1) Read On could be tough to catch from the rail. (12) Spanish Doubloon missed by a nose but has a tough post. (8) Curly Larry and Mo should be part of the pace and could hold on. Betting strategy: 11 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-8-11-12.

5th race – (1) Megacity flopped last time out but can bounce back with a big effort from the rail. (2) Mouillage disappointed in his second U.S. start but seems better than that. (4) In Love will be dangerous on his best try. (8) Winfromwithin can make his presence felt in this field. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-4-8. Doubles: 1-2-4-8 with 4-6-7-8.

6th race – (7) Sunny River (C) dropped from 6-5 to 4-5 and finished second for the third time in four starts. Seems overdue for a maiden win. (8) Forever After All was second in her last three starts and can make it four straight. (4) Inventing usually brings home a check. (6) Sweet Lady Ivanka will be a threat in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-6-7-8.

9th race – (6) McKulick is in great form and merits top billing here. (7) Paris Peacock is a European shipper who may be the main competition. (2) Gina Romantica has a strong late kick and merits respect. (4) New Year’s Eve will be a main contender with a clean trip. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-6-7.

No.


Letter/Last race


Today’s race




Comment
















(5)


Backsideofthemoon


B, 9/25


1 Kee


Seeks a third straight win
















(7)


Sunny River


C, 9/17


6 Kee


Overdue for a victory

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Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | October 15, 2022

October 14, 2022

Race 7 at Keeneland | Saturday October 15 | Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern

Purse $100,000 | One Mile on Turf | Maiden’s Two Years Old


Analysis and win contenders:

Giovannino (12) is one of many horses in this deep maiden field with prospects for a bright future and who cost a pretty penny at auction, in his case $200,000 13 months ago at Keeneland. He is bred to be a top runner as he’s by red hot sire Into Mischief out of an Indian Charlie mare who has had three other foals race going long on grass, with all three winning at this maiden allowance level, including one first time out. Giovannino tried two turns on turf first time out just 24 days ago in Indiana and ran creditably when rallying from second to last to get fourth at the end. Now he has two-turn and turf experience most of the field lacks, so with a jockey change to Florent Geroux (currently seventh among all jockeys in North America in 2022), and with a lot of improvement to show us off the experience of a race, this colt may post the mild upset, opening at 6 to 1.

Six Missions (7) debuted on turf in a short sprint (five and one-half furlongs) in July and ran very well when making up six lengths in the last three-eighths of a mile to get second. Sent to post as the favorite on September 3 in a 12 horse field at Kentucky Downs, he didn’t run well at all, checking in ninth of 12. However, he gets a jockey change to Flavien Prat, who is one of the top percentage jockey in turf routes in North America with a 26% win rate (91 from 353 mounts) in the past 12 months, and if the colt improves off his debut he certainly can earn his first career win today, making us a profit if we bet on him as he opens at 9 to 2 odds.

Ashcroft (11) opens as the 3 to 1 favorite and that might hold up as he comes from the strong barn of Wesley Ward, winning at a 25% clip on the year, even better at 31% when Ward uses North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. as he’s doing here. The colt made one start, six months ago at Keeneland, and on dirt, checking in fifth of seven. He was not favored that day which is unusual for a two year old first time starter from this barn at Keeneland, suggesting many bettors knew he would run his best races at longer distances an on turf. To that point, his dam has produced only one other runner, who like Ashcroft ran poorly in dirt first time out. When moving to turf and two-turns second time out it was a different story as the horse won nicely and that is possible for Ashcroft as well in this situation. That being said, he is coming back from six months off and Giovannino as well as Six Missions ran just last month.

Others with a shot, mostly for second, in this deep field, #4 Worthington and #14 Miranda Rights, who just finished third and second, respectively, when separated by a head in the same seven furlong turf race at Kentucky Downs last month.



Win bets:

Consider win bets on both Giovannino (12) and Six Missions (7) at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Giovannino (12), Six Missions (7) and Ashcroft (11).

Giovannino (12), Six Missions (7) and Ashcroft (11) over Giovannino (12), Six Missions (7), Ashcroft (11), Worthington (4) and Miranda Rights (14).

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Handicapper Sonny LaFouchi(aka The LEGEND)!

Free Winners for Saturday, October 15th 2022 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
SANTA ANITA PARK
RACE #8
TIME: 7:40 PM EST
PICK: BET #3 Feathers 3/1 odds to win @ Bovada make sure you repost this one

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1. NSA(The Legend) CFB – Minnesota -6.5
2. Gameday Network CFB – Central Michigan -13.5
3. Sports Action 365 CFB – Florida -2.5
4. Vegas Line Crushers CFB – Toledo over 61.5
5. VegasSI CFB – Connecticut +9.5
6. Sam Casey CFB – Tulane -12.5
7. Henry Brown Sports CFB – East Carolina over 61
8. Winning Big Sports CFB – Utah -3
9. Lou Panelli CFB – Rice under 56
10. Platinum Info Club CFB – Western Michigan +1
11. William E. Stockton CFB – Oregon St -3
12. Vincent Pioli CFB – BYU -1
13. Steve “Scoop” Kendall CFB – Old Dominion +11.5
14. SCORE CFB – Syracuse -3
15. Tony Campone CFB – Kentucky +4
16. Chicago Sports Group CFB – Toledo over 61.5
17. Hollywood Sportsline CFB – Alabama -8.5
18. VIP Action CFB – Buffalo -17
19. South Beach Sports CFB – Michigan -7
20. LV Sports Commission CFB – NC St +3
21. NY Players Club CFB – Purdue -14
22. Fred Callahan CFB – Minnesota over 39
23. LV Private CEO Club CFB – BYU -1
24. Michigan Sports CFB – Utah -3
25. National Consensus Report CFB – Stanford +16.5