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Brandon Lee
Thursday's Free NBA Pick: Los Angeles Clippers -5
Thursday's Free NBA Pick: Los Angeles Clippers -5
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Belmont at the Big A Hotlist - October 20
October 19, 2022
Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Thursday, October 20, 2022
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 7F] – (6) Refuah returned from a layoff last month, finished third in a similar spot, and is projected to be on the lead. (5) Ocean’s Reserve finished second in his last four starts at three different tracks with consistent speed figures that make it look like he may have found a small field in which he can win. (2) Our Son Jack has been off since July, gets back to the main track where he showed speed. (4) Tie Breaker debuted at Monmouth Park in August and finished fourth against open company in a race that had very fast early fractions. Blinkers go on.
2nd race [Clm 12500, 1 mi] – (1) Kerik won a starter allowance last month that was meant for the turf and now makes a huge drop down in class. (5) Linny Kate was claimed two races back for today’s price in a race that was crammed amongst several turf races. In the Spring, she was a winner at Aqueduct on the dirt. (2) Jen’s Battle will also move back to the main track where she does have two wins. (6) Grudge was a winner for a $10,000 tag back in June at Belmont and was claimed that day. Since then, she has been racing against much tougher company.
7th race [Alw 105000 N1X, 6F] – (4) To a T following a pair of second-place finishes, including a finish behind the streaking Mosienko, she finds a field with a lot of speed that may set things up for her closing style. (6) Silver Strand will make her 2022 debut for Bill Mott after an impressive debut at Saratoga as a 3-year-old. (2) Baba is one of the speed horses in the field with three past victories at the Big A. (1) Snicket has three wins at Aqueduct and also ran into Mosienko last time.
9th race [Alw 50000s, 1 1/16 TURF] – (1) Lady of Thoroton (A) was rank in the early going last time, fought restraint, and the raced very wide. Her form looks poor in the past performances with a couple of races coming off the grass. (11) Pegs A. K. Girl is in the best form of her career with two excellent and improving starts this year in a maiden claiming win at Saratoga and then an allowance at Colonial Downs. (9) Maybe Later stayed in a starter allowance that came off the grass in her first race after being claimed out of a $50,000 claimer at Saratoga. (7) Stella Mars had a pair of seconds during the summer that make her a contender in this field.
Best bets: Kerik (2nd); To a T (7th). Best value: Refuah (1st); Lady of Thoroton (9th).
No.
Name
Letter/
last race
Today's Race
Comments
(1)
Lady of Thoroton
A on 10/8
9
Rank at the back, fought restraint, and went very wide.Comment
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Keeneland Hotlist - October 20
October 19, 2022
Today’s Keeneland Hot List races to watch
Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (8) Keen Lady takes a big class drop into a claimer and should emerge victorious. (7) Toe Dancer may take a step forward for new connections. (1) Bird Hunter will benefit from a rail trip. (3) Tian’ai Road could be effective at this level. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-7-8.
3rd race – (11) King Russell (B) had a useful debut and should be more formidable here. (10) Laver may handle the switch from turf to dirt. (1) Escapologist rallied belatedly in his debut and should learn from that experience. (9) Demon Deacon could be a contender in his debut. Betting strategy: 11 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-9-10-11.
5th race – (7) Cold as Hell was third in his last two starts and is due for a victory. (8) Atras comes off a big win and will be a factor off the Barkley claim. (6) Mount Athos lost by a head and should be in the picture once again with the move to the Casse barn. (3) Pledgeofallegiance is in good form and cannot be ignored. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-6-7-8.
8th race – (8) Ethereal Road seems to be rounding back into top form and gets the nod here. (12) Creative Minister missed by a nose last time but has a tough post. (1) Saint Tapit might hang on from the rail. (9) Major General has some back class and could pull rank here. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-8-9-12. Doubles: 1-8-9-12 with 3-5-6-9.
9th race – (6) Mighty Madison was a good third in her debut and should appreciate more distance here. (5) Comparative was also third in her debut and should be the main rival. (3) Pure Pauline has the breeding to handle the added distance. (9) Grand Entrance can make her presence felt here. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-5-6-9.
No.
Letter/Last race
Today’s race
Comment
(11)
King Russell
B, 9/22
3 Kee
Had a useful debutComment
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Top Shot - Jerry Shottenkirk
TOP SHOT
Remington Park Selections
Thursday, October 20
1st Race
1 C R’S GIRL
2 SWIRLING RIDE
5 LADAWN
3 VALLEY VERDE
2nd Race
8 ISLAND HIDEAWAY
1 VALENTINES DAY
7 REPASADO
2 MISS PERFECTA
3rd Race
7 SAMURAI CAUSE
6 HEZA WILD RIDE
3 REPLETE
1 CAN HE STORM
4th Race
7 ARCH OF SWORDS
4 HIGH NOON TYPHOON
5 CLASSETOGA
1 TIZNOWS GRANDSOM
5th Race
2 COURAGEOUS TIMMY
5 SMART BATTLE
7 GOD HELP US
8 DIRECTIONAL
6th Race
9 CHIKARA
8 MY BABYS GONE
4 SUMMER SANGRIA
5 MISS B
7th Race
7 DENS DEVILLE
1 SOUL SACRIFICE
11 BRIGGSEY
4 TONTO D’ORO
8th Race
6 SMOOTHEE LEE
2 TROY OUNCE
4 LARCH
1 EXCITING
9th Race
8 SEDUCTIVE U S A
4 BIZZY LEGS
3 NEWPORT BEACH
1 IMPLICATOR
TODAY’S BEST BET
SAMURAI CAUSE (3rd)
PICK FIVE
(Races 1-5)
1-2 with 8-1 with 7 with 7-4-5-1 with 2-5-7-8 ($32)
PREMIER PICK FOUR
(Races 2-5)
8-1 with 7-6 with 7-4-5-1 with 2-5-7-8 ($32)
PRIMETIME PICK FOUR
(Races 6-9)
9-8 with 7-1-11-4 with 6-2-4 with 8-4-3 ($36)Comment
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Rocket Picks ��: Belmont at the Big A and Keeneland for October 20, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman
Let’s get it rolling with another week of racing! For the free pick 4, we will head to Belmont at the Big A for the Late Pick 4 on the card. We will also have full card selections for Keeneland for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s GO!
Below is our free late Pick 4 for Belmont at the Big A:
Belmont at the Big A October 20, 2022
Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming
#3 Whatlovelookslike goes for two straight victories today after a nice win at a similar level last time out at Saratoga. #2 Classic Lady will get class relief today after taking on stakes company in her last several starts. The Class drop could make her the one to beat.
Race 7: Allowance
freestar
#2 Baba has been competitive at this level in several recent starts on this circuit. Today should be more of the same. #6 Silver Strand returns off of a layoff today after two poor efforts at Keeneland and Churchill Downs. We could see an improved effort today off of the layoff.
Race 8: Claiming
#3 Golquist takes a class drop today down to the claiming level, which looks to be needed after back to back poor starts. This level should suit him well. #1 Maseta gets back to the turf today, while dropping back down in class, which should make him tough to beat in this spot.
Race 9: Starter Allowance
#3 Dreamful gets back to the turf for this race after a lack luster race that came off of the turf last time out. Getting back to the turf will help her chances. #7 Stella Mars has been consistent in similar races to this one in several starts at this circuit at Saratoga and Belmont Park.
THE TICKET
$.50 Pick 4 (Races 6-9) 2,3,10 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,3,4,6 / 3,7 – $48Comment
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Today’s Horse Racing Tips – 20th October 2022
by Racing and Sports
Racing and Sports highlight our standout plays at Australian TAB meetings for October 20.
Australian thoroughbred Tab meetings are today held at Hawkesbury, Ballarat, Gatton and Geraldton.
HAWKESBURY: RACE 8 @ 5:30 PM
HOOVER LUCY (6) failed to fire a shot when returning off a long break last time at Randwick. Fitter this time and steps out to a winning trip. Expecting her to atone. SEMPREINTE (2) battled on gamely to the line fresh despite being no match for the winner. Steps out to a preferred trip second up and has enough pace to offset the draw and race prominently. Should prove hard to reel in. ROSOVO (4) has had mixed form in his four starts. The best of him should see him go very close. STICK TO YOUR GUNS (1) kicked off his prep with an impressive win at Kembla Grange but is yet to go on with it. Wide alley to contest but is worth including in numbers.
SELECTIONS: Backing Hoover Lucy to win.
BALLARAT: RACE 4 @ 2:30 PM
MISS PASSION (8) has been to the races on four occasions and featured in the money at each outing. Looks nicely placed here to break maiden status. Should go close. MISS SASSY (9) has been around the mark in past two starts. Fit for this and looks one of the threats. CHEVAL CHIC (2) bumped into a smart one on debut. Will be improved by the experience and has to be given consideration. EYE KACHING (4) was comfortably held on debut when figuring in the money. Will be better for the experience and cannot be discounted.
SELECTIONS: Back Miss Passion to win.
GATTON: RACE 2 @ 1:45 PM
METZARRO (10) is in a sharp barn and first-up was beaten as favourite at the Gold Coast this trip. Not sure the low barrier will suit but she has the 2kg claim and will take plenty of beating. FAILED TO MENTION (1) didn't finish it off here first-up and will be much better today. Has more to give and should be right in it. BAGUIO (9) is a former Victorian resuming for the Kirkwood barn. She will race over further but won a recent trial suggesting she's forward. The awkward gate is against. HALLSIDE WILDTHING (2) tries hard and is a minor hope.
SELECTIONS: Backing Metzarro.Comment
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Ballarat best bets & quaddie tips | October 20, 2022
October 18, 2022 7:58 pm.
Ciaran Jackman
What Ladies Day
Where Ballarat Turf Club – 240 Kennedys Rd, Miners Rest VIC 3352
When Thursday, October 20, 2022
First Race 1pm AEDT
Visit Ladbrokes
The Ballarat Turf Club will hold its annual Ladies Day meeting this Thursday, where all nine races will feature just fillies and mares. The track is currently rated as a Soft 7, due to the high amount of rain that Victoria has seen over the past week; however, there is some good weather predicted for Wednesday and Thursday, so we don’t expect the track to be rated any worse come raceday. The rail will be in the 6m position for the entire circuit and racing kicks off at 1pm AEDT.
Best Bet: Cheval Chic
In the fourth race of the day, Cheval Chic for the Danny O’Brien yard looks to be a good bet after coming through a very good form race last time out. Even though this daughter of Written Tycoon lost by four lengths to Greece at Geelong on debut, the latter ran in the Group 2 Reisling Stakes, is nominated for multiple races at Moonee Valley and looks to be well-above average, so it is good form to go off. On debut Cheval Chic was run off her legs early before she recovered along the rail and tracked up the leaders, and once the leader kicked away this girl found some room and ran home very well to beat the rest of the field comfortably. Jye McNeil will stick with this three-year-old filly after riding her on debut, which gives us more confidence that she will be very hard to beat on Thursday.
Best Bet
Race 4 – Tahlequah#2 Cheval Chic (4)
3yo Filly | T: Danny O’Brien | J: Jye McNeil (57kg)
$3.80 with Bet365
Next Best Bet: Hesitate
In the first leg of the quaddie, the Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young-trained Hesitate will be looking for her third win from in her last four starts. This four-year-old mare was very tough on speed last start over 1765m at Geelong on September 29, winning by a half-head on the line after leading from barrier to winning post in a Benchmark 64. This daughter of El Roca has been in the top two at her last four starts, recording two wins and two seconds, and with the drop back to 1600m today, she looks to have the fitness to free wheel out in front and be very hard to get past in the concluding stages.
Next Best Bet
Race 6 – Tahlequah#4 Hesitate (4)
4yo Mare | T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young | J: Craig Newitt (60.5kg)
$4.20 with Bet365
Best Value: For Real Life
The Leon & Troy Corstens trained-For Real Life, has been luckless this preparation since winning her first-up run, as she has only finished in the top three once in her previous four starts. She now gets back to Ballarat where she has won her only start at the track and has a win and a second from three starts at the 1200m. This daughter of Capitalist was much better last start, where she could have won if she saw daylight before the 100m mark. After being held in by a horse that was slowing on her outside, this mare got out and she let down very nicely over 1125m at Geelong, so with the rise to 1200m on Thursday, it should suit her right down to the ground if she gets any luck in running.
Best Value
Race 7 – Tahlequah#2 For Real Life (4)
4yo Mare | T: Leon & Troy Corstens | J: (60.5kg)
$6 with Bet365
Ballarat quaddie tips for Ladies Day 2022
Ballarat quadrella selections
Thursday, October 20, 2022
2-4-9
2-4-5-6
2-5-6-13
1-6-11-15
Investment: $192 for 100%Comment
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Hawkesbury racing tips & best odds | Thursday, October 20
October 19, 2022 7:53 pm.
Nathan Keven
What Hawkesbury Races
Where Hawkesbury Race Club – 1 Racecourse Rd, Clarendon NSW 2756
When Thursday, October 20, 2022
First Race 1:15pm AEDT
Visit Ladbrokes
We’re back to the provincial circuit on Thursday with Hawkesbury holding a competitive eight-race card. The rail sits in the true position for the entire track, which is rated as a Soft 5; however, with plenty of rain around the region, expect a possible downgrade come raceday. We get under way with the first race scheduled for 1:15pm AEDT.
Best Bet: Baranof
Baranof looks to break his long-standing maiden on Thursday, and this looks like the day for it. He returns after 182 days, but he looks more than ready to go here after two very soft trials at Randwick on September 26 and October 10. He was barely asked for any kind of effort in those, and although he was beaten convincingly in both trials, it indicated that he has come up nicely. This looks a target race for the John Thompson team to get this gelding by Hinchinbrook an early win this time in. After solid runs behind the likes of Overpass (Flemington) and Waterford (Warwick Farm) last preparation, this looks his time to finally get that win he so desperately needs in start 16. Brenton Avdulla will look for a midfield position from the wider draw, but when persuaded he’ll look to put paid to his rivals turning for home.
Best Bet
Race 2 – Baranof silks#1 Baranof (10)
4yo Gelding | T: John Thompson | J: Brenton Avdulla (59kg)
$3 with Bet365
Next Best: Edge Of Reward
We head back to race one on the card to find our next best of the day with the Nathan Doyle-trained Edge Of Reward. He resumed at Port Macquarie on October 7 to be beaten a lip by Tiva Bay after storming down the outside in his first start for the Doyle camp. The step up in trip to the 1300m seems favourable for the gelding by Reward For Effort as he looks to be smashing the line at 1200m. Though our galloper has never raced this distance in his career, all five of his starts indicate that his ‘get back and run on’ style could work in the conditions expected at Hawkesbury on Thursday. Lee Magorrian jumps back aboard after trialing him before his first-up tilt – winning strongly at Newcastle back on September 12. He started very short with online Bookmakers first-up at around $1.80, and the fact we’re getting a very backable price on this occasion makes him an ideal bet at around the $2.70.
Next Best
Race 1 – Edge Of Reward silks#2 Edge Of Reward (9)
4yo Gelding | T: Nathan Doyle | J: Lee Magorrian (59kg)
$2.70 with Neds
Best Value: Hoover Lucy
We wait until the lucky last to find our best value in the form of the Chris Waller-trained Hoover Lucy. She looks to find an easier task than her first-up effort at Randwick on September 3 behind Sneaky Paige when beaten by four lengths. It was a very heavy track that day, and first-up in a classy BM78 affair it also proved an unsuitable trip. The step up to 1400m second-up at BM64 level tells us that Waller and the team really want to get a confidence win on the board for Hoover Lucy this preparation before looking for bigger objectives in the future. Jay Ford gets the ride on this mare by No Nay Never and should get the box-seat in running behind likely leader Sempreinte before peeling off their backs turning for home. It looks a strong BM64 on paper, but we are hoping Hoover Lucy can prove too strong.
Best Value
Race 8 – Hoover Lucy silks#6 Hoover Lucy (4)
4yo Mare | T: Chris Waller | J: Jay Ford (60kg)
$5.50 with PlayUp
Thursday quaddie tips for Hawkesbury races
Hawkesbury quadrella selections
Thursday, October 20, 2022
1-4-5
2-6-7-9
1-3-4-5
1-2-6-10
Investment: $192 for 100%Comment
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THE PRESS BOX
Gene McLean’s Selections for Keeneland on Thursday, Oct. 20
Here’s our looks at Keeneland on Thursday:
1st: 8-4/3-9-7-1//5-2…Keen Lady (8) drops from the MSW ranks to the $20,000 tag here for the first time and this 3YO daughter of Keen Ice may be haltered by another trainer following this tilt, in the ole’ lid-lifter at Keeneland on this Thursday. Has run OK up at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Best was over the sod, though. Gets the barn’s go-to rider up and the work on Oct. 14 was encouraging. Should fit here. Right? Paris Kentucky (4) is 8-1 in the Brisnet.com ML and I think a nice price. Has had 13 chances to break the maiden before and has not gotten the job done. But drops into the MCL ranks for the first time here and the barn wins with .11% of those situations. Maybe? I bet the 8 across the board and then box the 8-4 in the exactas. I will key those two numbers over/under the 3-9-7-1 in two smaller units.
2nd: 2-10-3/9-7/5-1//4-6…Donya Know It (2) has not been out since running over the slop at Churchill Downs in late May. Nearly won that one, and has a nice 1-2-1 mark in 7 starts, to date. Looks like she is ready to return and should be a tough out if fit. Barn wins with .08% off this type a layup. Zmuda (10) could be a surprise candidate here. This one was claimed last time out for $30,000 and now shows up here for $20,000. Barn wins with .18% when dropping off the claim purchase. Will be running late, and that style is compromised over this track surface. But this one has some talent, too, and gets a better gate rider for this effort. Chance. Evoking (3) should win this one by a pole, if the 4YO daughter of Union Rags is anywhere close to the same runner she was in May of 2021. Won the debut over the slop at Belmont by nearly 5. Has not been seen at the track since. Training well. Will get claimed. Probably by many. Look out at a short price. I bet the 2-3 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 9-7 in two smaller units.
3rd: 10-7-1/11-(13)/12-3/4-(14)/5-8-9…Laver (10) is my first “Upset Special of the Day.” Here’s hoping that assistant trainer Jack Bohannon has this one primed and ready to go with a chance over the dirt surface. Barn wins with .18% when making this surface switch and picks up a top rider for this one. Like the work here on Oct. 14. Could pop at a price. Endpoint (7) ran very well last time out and the trainer is having a very solid meet here this October. Will get the blinkers for the first time and the barn wins with .21% of the last 24 to get the shades. Like this one. Escapologist (1) should improve off the first start and with a little better beginning, this one could be in the hunt. Gets the barn’s preferred rider and that may assist the cause, too. I bet the 10-7 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 11-13 or 12 in two smaller units.
4th: 7-3-5/2/8-4-6/1…Burning Bright (7) gets back to the claiming ranks after trying a Stakes event at Laurel Park last time out. That was supposed to be over the sod and was moved to a sloppy main track. No threat in there, but a toss for me. Go to the 2022 debut in August. If this one can duplicate that race? Look out. Barn wins with .32% in the claiming ranks. Payne (3) drops in class here, as well, and picks up a new rider. Works are encouraging and this one does have a 3rd in two previous tries here. Chance. Outlier (5) is a must use for me. In 3 previous runs over this main track, this one has a 2nd and a 3rd. Consistent sort has hit the board in 14 of 37 lifetime tries. Will push the pace and that could help here. I bet the 7-3 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2 in two smaller units.
5th: 6-5-8/2-7-9/3-10/1/4-11…Mount Athos (6) moves to the barn of Norm Casse, after being claimed last time out. Ran well there to be 2nd for the 3rd time in a row. Gets the same rider back in the saddle and that helps. This one has hit the board in half of 12 lifetime tries and will come with a solid stretch move. Comiskey Park (5) has hit the board in the last 6 outings and 7 of the last 8. Has some speed and will get a good start with a solid gate rider up for the first time. Bears watching at a very solid price in the ML. Atras (8) is another longshot possibility. Trainer has a win in only other start here this meet. This one was claimed last time out and won easily in that attempt. This one could get the job done here. Without a question. I bet the 6-8 across the board and then box the top 3 in the exactas. I will key the top 3 numbers over/under the 2-7-9 in two smaller units.
6th: 3-5/6/2-1/4…Meister (3) looks much the best in this spot, IMO. This 4YO son of Bodemeister has won two in a row and catches a rather meek group here, as well. In 3 previous tries here, has a 2nd and a 3rd. My solid pick. Major Fed (5) may be the most talented horse in this field. And, it could be by a pole. But for some reason the 5YO son of Ghostzapper seemingly always finds a tough spot. Gets a rider who has had some success with this one back in the irons. Should / could help the cause. Route may be best distance, too. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-5 in the exactas. I will key the 3-5 over/under the 6-2-1 in two smaller units.
7th: 10-12-(13)/9-2/1-4-6-7/(16)/5-8-11…This is a turf event that will be contested at the 11/16-mile distance. The outside horses — whom I like the best — will be compromised right off the bat and get. Will have to be much the best to overcome the track bias here. But? I stick with the numbers and with Champagne Lady (10) in this spot. This 5YO daughter of Uncle Mo ran super last time out at KY Downs. Returns here as a beaten favorite and the barn wins with .18% of those. Rider returns, as well, for a HOF trainer — who could have a big couple of weeks in Lexington coming up. I like the work on Oct. 15, too. Looks primed to me. Bipartisanship (12) has not run since March, but the barn wins with .22% off the bench and the trainer is having a super meet. Has gone 4-1-1 in the 8 starts here, to date. This one picks up a huge, huge rider switch and looks like she fits perfectly. Can’t dismiss this one. Will be running late. I bet the 10-12 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers who make the gate. I will key the 10-12 over/under the 13-9-2-1-4-6-7 in two smaller units.
8th: 1-11-12/7-8-9/(15)-(16)-10/5/2-3-4…This field is definitely worthy of Stakes considerations. And, thus, this is really a Stakes race in allowance clothing (to steal a Halloween theme). I will go heavy and strong on Saint Tapit (1). Love. Love. Love. This. One. The son of Tapit is out of a Stakes-winning mare and this one captured the first two races of he career in pure style. For some reason, connections tried a Stakes going 13/16ths last time out. Ran his race. Just couldn’t go from 7 furlongs to the marathon without the benefit of Lasix. Lasix is back. Top rider is back. Winning form, to me, will be back. I think we can expect solid odds, considering the depth and quality of this field, too. My “Key Play of the Day.” I will? I bet the 1 across the board and then box the top 3 numbers in the exactas. I will key the 1 over/under the 11-12-7-8-9-10 in two smaller units.
9th: 3-9-5/6/8-10-12/4-7-11/(13)…The day’s finale is a 11/16-mile event for the MSW 2YO fillies and I will saddle up with Pure Pauline (3). This is another well-bred daughter of Curlin and out of the Stakes-winning mare Keen Pauline for the fine folks at Stonestreet Stables. Ran well on debut as the PT favorite. Has trained well since. Gets a top rider for this assignment and looks ready to pop the question here. I bet the 3 across the board and then box the 3-9-5 in the exactas. I will key the 3 over/under the 9-5-6-8-10-12 in two smaller units.
Good Luck & All the Best / GeneComment
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Ballarat Betting Tips for October 20, 2022
By Justin Darcy
Ballarat hosts nine races on Thursday
The track is currently a Soft 6, but recent sunshine suggests the track will dry out nicely
Ballarat Tips October 20, 2022
Byerley Race Club Fillies and Mares Maiden Plate Tips (Race 5)
Ballarat Best Bet - Race 5 No. 13 Starianne
Happy to follow this girl as her debut run at Sandown indicated that she has a ton of ability, especially as a staying filly over the next six months.
Her first-up run was super behind Dream Hour who subsequently won again and is being tested in stakes class on Wednesday, so the form behind her is strong enough.
Although beaten last start, Starianne did lack zip so the blinkers have been applied which should see her that touch too good for this opposition.
Starianne - $3.05Ballarat Best Bet
Hygain Winners Choice Fillies and Mares BM64 Handicap Tips (Race 7)
Ballarat Next Best Bet - Race 7 No. 12 Honeycup
Keen to be with this fillyafter being beaten a nose last start behind Ballynora who has subsequently come out and run a super race against some handy opposition at Pakenham.
That was only start number three for the three-year-old daughter of Hellbent, so it is safe to assume that she is still learning the trade and race experience is only going to bring her on.
Jye McNeil rode Honeycup in a strong race at Sandown two starts back when finishing three lengths away in fourth, now hopping back aboard for this which is encouraging.
Honeycup - $4.00Ballarat Next Best Bet
Australian Skin Clinics Fillies and Mares BM64 Handicap Tips (Race 9)
Ballarat Value Bet - Race 9 No. 1 Sabre Princess
It is a case of saving this girl up for one barnstorming run down the centre of the track, and expect that to happen coming back to her own sex and from a wide gate.
Her first-up win was outstanding, but she has not had a heap go right in two subsequent starts, seemingly not handling the wet in town two back and losing momentum last start when running fourth.
Patty rode her for the first two starts of the prep, so back on firmer ground, he knows how to ride this girl, make one swooping run and show that turn-of-foot that she holds.
Sabre Princess - $6.00Ballarat Value Bet
Verdict
Starianne & Honeycup will run as our best bets.
Sabre Princess will run as our value bet.
Boombet
Starianne
To Win
@205.00 - 10 Units
Honeycup
To Win
@300.00 - 6 Units
Sabre Princess
Each-Way
@500.00 - 4 UnitsComment
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Neil Morrice best bets and tips – Thursday 20 October 2022
Neil Morrice shares all of his best bets and tips from Thursday’s racing coming your way from Ludlow, Carlisle, Southwell and Wolverhampton on 20 October 2022.
LUDLOW
Race 3 No3 I SPY A DIVA
Trainer: Kim Bailey – Jockey: David Bass
I SPY A DIVA returns from a 200-day absence but has shown she can go well fresh before, while her form is superior to that of her rivals. She has been operated on for a wind affliction since her latest outing, and should take care of business.
Race 4 No3 MINELLA PLUS (Nap)
Trainer: Donald McCain Jnr – Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Up 5lb for his eye taking chase debut win at Hexham, MINELLA PLUS enjoys an equally eye taking jockey booking in this novices’ limited handicap chase. A multiple winner over hurdles,he’s always promised to be seen in even better light over fences, and is hard to oppose.
Race 6 No5 FENNEY BROOK
Trainer: Henry Daly – Jockey: Richard Patrick
FENNEY BROOK returned from a ten week break to score in convincing fashion at Hexham. While that entailed an overnight journey, he’s racing out of his own back yard this afternoon, and from 8lb higher can prove a bet worth waiting for in the nightcap.
CARLISLE
Race 2 No9 MAXIMILIAN (Nap)
Trainer: Donald McCain Jnr – Jockey: Brian Hughes
MAXIMILIAN knows his way round here, having delivered on both bumper outings for his powerful connections here. The former Irish point winner has been well tutored in the jumping department for this first run over hurdles.
Race 7 No2 BENITO
Trainer: Elizabeth Quinlan – Jockey: Brian Hughes
BENITO put in good earning efforts in each of three visits to Cartmel in the summer and might have made his move too soon when beaten by Liffeydale Dreamer last time. Racing over a slightly shorter trip here, the five-year-old holds strong claims with the champion jockey in his irons.
SOUTHWELL
Race 3 No2 HIROMICHI
Trainer: Mick Channon – Jockey: Charles Bishop
Bishop is among three different jockeys to have prevailed aboard HIROMICHI this season. His mount has taken an expected hike in the weights, but is now demonstrating the ability he showed as a two-year-old. Interestingly, the one that could pose most problems to him is Nat Love, a previous inmate of the Channon stable.
Race 4 No4 SOVEREIGN SLIPPER (Nap)
Trainer: Henry Candy – Jockey: Dane O’Neill
While it took a long time for the penny to drop, SOVEREIGN SLIPPER really came of age when positing a fine hat-trick on sand last winter. He looks a much better operator on an artificial surface, and is ready for this belated return to the fray.
WOLVERHAMPTON
Race 1 No9 RING OF LIGHT
Trainer: Henry Candy – Jockey: Hollie Doyle
RING OF LIGHT bolted up at Kempton when strong in the market and now takes a step back on the Class ladder. The lightly-raced grey has his tail up courtesy of that first career success, and from a good draw has strong prospects of following-up.
Race 3 No6 TOMAHAWK KING (Nap)
Trainer: Mick Channon – Jockey: Franny Norton
Nothing went right for TOMAHAWK KING on his first run on the all-weather here two weeks ago. Having taken away a cheque on his debut at Salisbury, the Camacho colt then ran as if he’d not had a previous run but should have learned sufficient to confirm the promise he’s shown at home, and open his account.
Race 7 No9 KITBAG (Each Way)
Trainer: Mick Channon – Jockey: Franny Norton
KITBAG hasn’t enjoyed the rub of the green since opening his account at Lingfield. Apart from running a howler at Newcastle, he’s come up against a Group horse in Sakheer at Haydock, gone too hard from a bad draw and paid the price at Southwell, and most recently put in good work up the final hill to take home a minor cheque at Pontefract. While he has a hazardous draw to overcome, he also has the right man on board to circumnavigate the problem.
Place Accumulator Perm (Races 2-8)
2, 10, 6 x 6 x 2, 1 x 1 x 6, 1, 4, 2 x 9, 10, 8 x 3, 9
R144Comment
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Thursday Horse Racing Tips
By Daryl Curnow
We have expert betting tips for the cards this Thursday at Ballarat and Hawkebury.
Ballarat
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Race 2. (13:30) Sam Miranda Maiden (1200m)
#4 – Masako @ $3.80
Masako owns five placings from six starts, including a third placing at Swan Hill last time out.
The four-year-old mare owns three placings over the distance and most of the early money has come for the daughter of Real Impact.
Barrier 13 isn’t ideal but she has more upside than most in this field.
Race 4. (14:30) United Insurance Group Maiden (1400m)
#2 – Cheval Chic @ $3.80Comment
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TimeformUS Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Thursday, October 20, 2022
David Aragona
RACE 1: OUR SON JAKE (#2)
Though he’s only made six starts in his career, you already get the sense Ocean’s Reserve (#5) is on his way to professional maiden status. He clearly hung in the late stages after seemingly making a winning move on June 9, allowing the winner to come back and beat him. He then proceeded to do the exact same thing in three more starts, all at short prices. His loss last time is particularly concerning, as he had dead aim on a longshot first-time starter after his main rival blew the start, but just refused to go by for the entire stretch drive. His speed figures obviously make him the horse to beat, but it’s awfully hard to endorse him at another short price. Some looking for alternatives may go to the first-time starters, but neither one did quite enough for me. I’m instead most interested in Our Son Jake (#2) as the potential upsetter. This colt was steadily improving on dirt leading up to that turf experiment back in July. Obviously grass just isn’t his surface, and he’s getting back on his preferred footing here. Notably, he was contesting a pace that fell apart two back. One of the horses he dueled with, fourth-place finisher Two for Charging, came back to win next time out with an 11-point speed figure improvement, beating Ocean’s Reserve in the process. The layoff is a bit of a concern, especially considering that he has to improve again on even his best performance to graduate here. Some may also be concerned that the Mike Miceli barn has been pretty cold recently, going 1 for 37 (3%, $0.78 ROI) over the past five months. However, Miceli did have a couple of frustrating beats in September and interestingly this is the first horse he’s entered after a three-week gap with no starters.
:: Get TimeformUS PPs for these races at Aqueduct
RACE 6: MASTEROF THE TUNES (#9)
I’m not sure how the betting public is going to approach this seemingly wide-open New York-bred optional claimer. If they do go for morning-line favorite Classic Lady (#2), I want no part of that runner. She is getting class relief here, but she was terrible last time, lacking any acceleration after working out a perfect trip. Something appears to have gone wrong with this once classy mare, and the drop in for $45k seems like a bad sign. Among the potential short prices, I’d rather go for the upside of horses like Whatlovelookslike (#3) or She’s a Mia (#10). The former has obviously drawn a much better post position. This Todd Pletcher trainee hasn’t run particularly fast in her recent races, but she always shows up with an honest effort and has a way of making her own good trips. She’s a Mia was visually impressive in victory just 12 days ago, but she got a much better trip than her stablemate New Ginya, who got rolling too late after getting buried in traffic. They’re both usable, but I wanted to go in a different direction. I’m not sure why Masterof the Tunes (#9) is again running for this N2X allowance condition despite still being eligible for the N1X level. However, she showed last time out she fits well against this tougher company. She was clearly best that day despite finishing second, as she was wide around both turns and made the first move to take over in a race that was coming apart at the end. She also ran better than the result indicates two back when encountering early trouble and racing wide over a rail-biased course. If Eric Cancel can work out a decent trip for her, she’s a real threat.
RACE 8: MOON HUNTER (#2)
This conditioned claiming event is arguably the most wide-open race on the card. The favorites don’t stand on particularly firm ground and there’s some kind of case to be made for almost every runner in the field. Golquist (#3) or Maseta (#1) appear most likely to take money in this race, and I wouldn’t be particularly fond of either one at a short price. The former seems like an especially poor gamble, as he is totally unreliable to show up from race to race. He also achieved his best result when benefiting from a rail bias and slow pace going two turns. Maseta is a little more appealing, as he hasn’t ever gotten a chance to sprint on turf. He’s a handy horse who may not mind the turnback, and William Morey has done well with turf claims in the past. I just want to search for some better value in a race that looks so competitive. He’s Got It (#4) should go off at a better price than both aforementioned runners. While he’s never actually crossed the wire first in his career, he did show he could handle this distance when justifiably put up via disqualification in his maiden score over this track. Since then he hasn’t hit the board in any of his starts for James Ryerson. However, he did run deceptively well two back when chasing outside against a rail bias. Then last time he set an extremely fast pace in a race that fell apart. I like the turnback in distance for him and believe he’s in better form than it appears. My top pick at what is likely to be an even bigger price is Moon Hunter (#2). He looks a little slow from a speed figure standpoint, but he’s had significant excuses in every start since getting claimed by Gary Sciacca. He was off awkwardly on Aug. 14, never raced on the rail during a rail bias period, and was compromised by an extremely slow pace. He again encountered trouble on Sept. 3 when racing wide every step of the way against a much tougher field. I don’t care about the dirt race last time, as his form is now so obscured that he has to be a generous price. He’s getting back to the right surface and distance, and takes a needed drop in class.Comment
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Free horse racing tips at Ballarat 20/10/2022
Author: James Beeson
Ballarat tips from a proven profit maker
Puntes have 9 races at Ballarat to get stuck into this Thursday.
The weather is fine and sunny and the track is rated a Good 4.
Here's a free tip from one of the best performing tipsters on thegreattipoff.com. Clarebear made $2,510 over 365 days from $100 win bets at Ballarat. . To get all his tips today, follow the related link below. The other link will take you to the Horse Racing Tip Market where you will find thousands of punters tips.
One of the Ballarat tips posted by Clarebear comes in race 1.
The tip is #12 Sheza Marvel $10.20.Comment
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Keeneland - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 Prince of Roses Forward player steps back up after an improved effort, and most of those with experience in here have not shown a lot of pace. He might get a dreamy trip near the top at a mid-range price.
#7 Endpoint I worry he'll be a little overbet, but I do like the way he moved up in that second start, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him thrive with a bit more ground today around two turns.
#1 Escapologist He rallied with some enthusiasm late in the debut run at Churchill, but I have a worry that he'll be along too late at this trip over the local footing. Maybe he's got a touch more early speed today?
Race Summary Prince of Roses has enough pace to get in the mix early on after dipping into claiming company for that second lifetime start, and he might be a menace on the front end while adding blinkers today.
Keeneland - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 Reagan's Decision She has always had at least a little class to her, and she handled the turf really nicely in that first try over the new footing at Ellis last out. She's meeting some who have shown better than she has to date, but she may not be exposed with just that one turf start under her belt. Lots to like from a great spying spot while getting the jump on some logical contenders.
#12 Bipartisanship I suppose she might be a trap horse off the bench, but she's way too classy on paper for this bunch if she comes back running at her baseline level. Tucks back to save ground and finish? Obvious threat.
#9 Justify My Love She's another who is getting some class relief off that stakes try last time out, and she has some room to come forward in this second start off the layoff. Interesting enough.
Race Summary Reagan's Decision has enough appeal to get the edge for me at a price in here. The other listed pair are logical classy types with a big claim on the top, but the top choice should get the jump on both of them turning for home.
Keeneland - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Saint Tapit He just has to be better than he showed last time out when stopping badly behind some of the same ones he'll meet here, and I can see him getting a really great trip while tucked in behind a few pace players. Would love to see him angle out around the 5/16 pole.
#12 Creative Minister His best stuff keeps him in the picture here, but I worry that he's going to get bet while having to navigate a trip from a tough draw -- and he has a habit of settling for slices. Capable underlay?
#6 Magoo He's no sure thing to even find the lead if they want it, but I do think he's the most likely pacesetter in this spot, and most of these are content to settle a bit off the splits. Chance to hang around late if they disrespect him early.
Race Summary Saint Tapit turned in a dud last out and will need to turn tables on some of these today, but he showed some promise prior to that flat run, and I think he gets a great trip this time around from the fence.Comment
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