Thursday 10/20/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 M’LADY THATCHER (9-2) Piled up checks in longer MSW races on the main track, makes turf debut.
#8 THAT’S SOME KISS (8-1 Roughed up at start, rallied 4-wide to finish second to the favorite in dirt sprint.
#1 COOLCATSNKITTENS (7-2) Well-bet versus NY breds on the lawn, managed one second from post 10, switches barns.
Race Summary M’LADY THATCHER switches surfaces, starts fresh and exits MSW company after she was disqualified from a victory and finished in the money in her next four starts. She meets a field of mostly unproven turf sprinters and should be a major player if she handles the transition. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#6 BELIEVEINROCKNROLL (8-1) Gets class relief, looms forward factor throughout at good price.
#1 BOWIE TWO STEP (9-5) Made middle moves, landed minor awards in last pair at this level.
#4 SMARTY JOHN (7-2) Dueled through solid fractions and tired in long sprint, enters new barn.
Race Summary BELIEVEINROCKNROLL has speed and can use it well from a favorable post on the class drop. He chased the 4-1 winner in his first start on the main track and gets in light-weighted again. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 WIRED IN (4-1) Earned top speed figure in first start as gelding, drops into ideal spot.
#3 AWESOME DYNAMO (5-2) Gamely chased the favorite, passed by longshot winner in best try yet.
#2 JEBSTER (5-1) Bid 3-wide, finished second to the favorite on short rest.
Race Summary WIRED IN improved in his first start as a gelding but was no factor off an eight-month layoff. He gets class relief and gets in light-weighted from the rail today, so bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine
PURCHASE
Woodbine - Race 7

Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta


Optional Claiming $40,000 • 7 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $66,300 • Post: 7:56P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR ONTARIO SIRED ALLOWANCE WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CITY LEGEND: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest avera ge Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CLASSY WHISPER: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. POSEIDON STEEL: Horse has run a Good Race within t he last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JIMMIES BIG DAY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
2
CITY LEGEND
4/1

7/2
1
CLASSY WHISPER
5/2

7/1
3
POSEIDON STEEL
8/1

8/1
6
JIMMIES BIG DAY
6/1

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
2
CITY LEGEND
2

4/1
Front-runner
87

85

73.3

82.2

77.7
1
CLASSY WHISPER
1

5/2
Front-runner
90

82

67.8

71.1

65.1
5
BET N WIN
5

10/1
Alternator/Stalker
78

77

94.2

53.8

43.8
4
MIDWAY MISCHIEF
4

7/5
Alternator/Stalker
88

86

0.0

52.1

46.1
3
POSEIDON STEEL
3

8/1
Trailer
92

83

49.0

78.9

72.9
6
JIMMIES BIG DAY
6

6/1
Alternator/Trailer
87

84

54.8

67.1

59.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE
Delta Downs - Race 4

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 4-5)($1 min.)/ Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)


Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 6:19P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. POLICY LIMIT is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * POLICY LIMIT: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. L UCKY BREAK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TOP HAT CAT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. MR. CURLIN: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
7
POLICY LIMIT
3/1

3/1
8
LUCKY BREAK
7/2

5/1
6
TOP HAT CAT
5/1

9/1
2
MR. CURLIN
8/1

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
8
LUCKY BREAK
8

7/2
Front-runner
65

62

64.2

46.6

38.1
6
TOP HAT CAT
6

5/1
Front-runner
68

63

58.0

33.0

24.5
7
POLICY LIMIT
7

3/1
Alternator/Front-runner
64

55

66.6

59.4

52.9
2
MR. CURLIN
2

8/1
Alternator/Stalker
69

65

51.6

53.8

47.8
3
CALLEN FEELS GOOD
3

12/1
Alternator/Stalker
63

47

40.2

51.2

41.2
1
WIN IN THE CITY
1

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
74

61

61.2

43.6

37.6
5
JUST HANGIN RIDGE
5

5/1
Alternator/Non-contender
44

39

43.0

42.2

27.2
9
SHADY MONKEY
9

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
60

56

39.0

46.2

34.2
4
HARD TWIST
4

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
61

51

17.5

34.8

17.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $48000 Class Rating: 89

FOR RESTRICTED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOR MD BRED OR MD SIRED HORSES WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A STATE BRED/STATE SIRED/RESTRICTED OR STATE CERTIFIED RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, OR STARTER AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER,


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 DAILY PLANET 9/2

# 1 MY CANDY GIRL 8/5

# 6 TWELVEO'CLOCKROCK 7/2

DAILY PLANET supports the wager in here. She has a very good distance/surface win record - 1 for 4. MY CANDY GIRL - Boasts sound Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group of animals. Is a solid choice - given the 90 Equibase Speed Figure from her most recent race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicappers' Consensus for Thursday, October 20

KEENELAND

	Scott Hazelton	Tom Leach	Jeremy Plonk	Gabby Gaudet	Kim Nelson
1	1 Bird Hunter 8 Keen Lady 7 Toe Dancer	1 Bird Hunter 8 Keen Lady 4 Paris Kentucky	8 Keen Lady 9 Literary 1 Bird Hunter	4 Paris Kentucky 8 Keen Lady 6 Saint Sista	8 Keen Lady 4 Paris Kentucky 9 Literary
2	2 Donya Know It 3 Evoking 5 Believing	1 Social Mandate 2 Donya Know It 3 Evoking	2 Donya Know It 3 Evoking 5 Believing	3 Evoking 2 Donya Know It 10 Zmuda	5 Believing 1 Social Mandate 3 Evoking
3	7 Endpoint 11 King Russell 10 Laver	4 Prince of Roses 1 Escapologist 10 Laver	1 Escapologist 13 Ten Days Later 14 Diversiful	7 Endpoint 3 Phosphorescence (FR) 10 Laver	13 Ten Days Later 3 Phosphorescence (FR) 7 Endpoint
4	7 Burning Bright 3 Payne 2 Hot Shot Kid	7 Burning Bright 3 Payne 5 Outlier	2 Hot Shot Kid 3 Payne 7 Burning Bright	3 Payne 4 Devil Vision 7 Burning Bright	7 Burning Bright 8 Silver Dust 2 Hot Shot Kid
5	9 Constitutional Law 6 Mount Athos 4 Data Storm	9 Constitutional Law 6 Mount Athos 3 Pledgeofallegiance	9 Constitutional Law 6 Mount Athos 5 Comiskey Park	6 Mount Athos 3 Pledgeofallegiance 9 Constitutional Law	5 Comiskey Park 6 Mount Athos 7 Cold as Hell
6	3 Meister 4 Cupid's Claws 5 Major Fed	2 Ethical Judgement 1 Five Star General 3 Meister	1 Five Star General 2 Ethical Judgement 3 Meister	2 Ethical Judgement 3 Meister 5 Major Fed	2 Ethical Judgement 3 Meister 6 Mailman Money
7	10 Champagne Lady 1 Flown 12 Bipartisanship (GB)	10 Champagne Lady 9 Justify My Love (BRZ) 12 Bipartisanship (GB)	12 Bipartisanship (GB) 9 Justify My Love (BRZ) 1 Flown	1 Flown 10 Champagne Lady 12 Bipartisanship (GB)	12 Bipartisanship (GB) 1 Flown 3 Undisturbed
8	12 Creative Minister 7 Actuator 1 Saint Tapit	8 Ethereal Road 12 Creative Minister 7 Actuator	12 Creative Minister 7 Actuator 5 Serifos	7 Actuator 8 Ethereal Road 1 Saint Tapit	1 Saint Tapit 12 Creative Minister 11 Warrior Johny
9	6 Mighty Madison 4 Wits and Wagers 3 Pure Pauline	3 Pure Pauline 9 Grand Entrance 5 Comparative	3 Pure Pauline 5 Comparative 8 Huntleigh	3 Pure Pauline 6 Mighty Madison 4 Wits and Wagers	6 Mighty Madison 3 Pure Pauline 5 Comparative

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5 - Post: 3:18pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 SWEET MOOCHIE (ML=8/1)
#2 LACEE (ML=12/1)
#7 ROLLING MO (ML=3/1)


SWEET MOOCHIE - Have to make this mare a contender; she comes off a strong effort on Oct 10th. Look at this mare's PP lines. With each event she keeps getting closer. Ran a fast time for the last quarter on October 10th at Presque Isle Downs. Anything close in this race should get the job done. Closed a ton of ground in that last contest at 6 furlongs. Wouldn't be astonished to see her win today. LACEE - I really like that latest race on October 6th at Presque Isle Downs where she ran third. ROLLING MO - This beautiful animal should be rocking and rolling in the stretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 A REAL HERO (ML=9/5), #3 BOURBON BLAST (ML=7/2), #8 IJUSTWANTAHAVEFUN (ML=6/1),

A REAL HERO - This probable favorite hasn't visited the track in awhile. No morning activity since last race. IJUSTWANTAHAVEFUN - This mare likely won't be very close at the wire.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #1 SWEET MOOCHIE to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 77

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 20, 2022. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, FOR EACH $250 TO $5,000 1 LB. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 TORN JEANS 2/1

# 7 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY 8/1

# 2 SALSA RITA 4/1

TORN JEANS has a very strong shot to take this race. She ought to be given a shot given the very strong speed figs. This pony has a excellent win percentage in dirt sprints. Posted a formidable speed fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. CHARLOTTE WEBLEY - Have to suppose this entrant will make a good showing following the quick turnaround. Should be considered based on the respectable speed rating posted in the last contest. SALSA RITA - Ought to compete soundly in the pace contest which bodes well with this group. Posted a strong speed fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belmont at the Big A

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 3 - Optional Claiming - 9.0f on the Turf. Purse: $110000 Class Rating: 97

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $62,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MISS DRACARYS 3/1
# 3 COMMUNITY ADJUSTED 9/2
# 6 CREATIVE CAIRO 8/1

MISS DRACARYS looks quite good to best this field. Her 95 average has this filly with among the most respectable Speed Figures in this race. Going in a turf route race gives this filly a very good shot. Drysdale has her trained strongly to break speedily out of the starting gate. COMMUNITY ADJUSTED - Is a solid choice - given the 93 Equibase Speed Fig from her most recent race. Risk takers should take a good look at this one as this filly has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of horses in this race. CREATIVE CAIRO - Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me like this filly. No strangers to the winner's circle, Clement and Prat ought to have this filly breaking away from the field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Remington Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:59pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 COURAGEOUS TIMMY (ML=4/1)
#1 FORGOTTEN SON (ML=15/1)


COURAGEOUS TIMMY - It looks like Torres had to 'know' this gelding on September 16th when riding him for the initial time. Back on board again today. Took a drop in class in the last race, running against the same type today. Last ran at Remington Park and finished fourth. Reviewing his handicapping information, I see he was close at the wire, within 5 of the winner. FORGOTTEN SON - Applebee has this gelding entered in the perfect contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 GOD HELP US (ML=5/2), #5 SMART BATTLE (ML=5/1), #3 BORN TOUGH (ML=6/1),

GOD HELP US - All kinds of crazy zip signed up for this affair. Little chance for this speedball. SMART BATTLE - If this affair shapes up right, all the speed horses will force a fierce pace battle early. Too bad this animal is one of those front runners. BORN TOUGH - The speed rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's affair. Mark this horse as a vulnerable contender.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #2 COURAGEOUS TIMMY on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) 20 Cent Straight Fire 6 (Races 3-4-5-6-7-8) (Jackpot Pick 6)
Claiming $12,500 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $16,500 • Post: 3:11P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. BOLD BIZNESS is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOLD BIZNESS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NA TES HEARTTHROB: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	BOLD BIZNESS	7/2	5/2
7	NATES HEARTTHROB	5/1	7/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	JUST PHIL	3	8/1	Front-runner	60	51	50.8	46.8	35.8
4	BOLD BIZNESS	4	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	69	61	71.1	57.7	51.2
5	COG	5	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	66	54.3	47.7	37.2
1	ROOKWOOD	1	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	50	42.6	57.2	51.7
2	MEMORY IN MOTION	2	3/1	Trailer	72	54	47.7	55.5	50.0
6	CONSIDER	6	12/1	Trailer	64	53	42.4	45.0	33.5
7	NATES HEARTTHROB	7	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	77	74	50.8	57.0	52.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Keeneland
PURCHASE

10/20/22, KEE, Race 5, 3.08 ET
10/20/22,KEE,5,6F [Dirt] 1:07:04 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $57,000 (includes up to $14,000 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since September 20 Allowed 2 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $40,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI
100.0000 5 Comiskey Park 12/1 Corrales G Hernandez Armando JFL 115 32.17 1.43/$1
097.8976 9 Constitutional Law 5/1 Arrieta F Hartman Chris A. T 115 32.17 1.43/$1
096.1042 10 Ampersand 9/2 Saez G Shirer Matt A. 133 25.56 1.32/$1
095.5816 8 Atras 12/1 Graham J Barkley Jason E 115 32.17 1.43/$1
095.5488 1 Oskee Wow Wow 30/1 Cannon D O'Dwyer Jeremiah W 133 25.56 1.32/$1
094.5706 7 Cold as Hell 8/1 Saez L Lukas D. Wayne 115 32.17 1.43/$1
094.2048 6 Mount Athos 4/1 Gaffalione T Casse Norm W. 115 32.17 1.43/$1
094.0498 4 Data Storm 15/1 Jordan K R Martin Timothy E. 115 32.17 1.43/$1
093.8094 2 Kunshan Bridge 20/1 Santana. Jr. R Walden William C 115 32.17 1.43/$1
093.7665 11 Spend Benjamins 15/1 Miranda R Gonzalez Reina E. 115 32.17 1.43/$1
090.8206 3 Pledgeofallegiance 3/1 Talamo J McGee Paul J. S 115 32.17 1.43/$1
Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 27.59, ROI 1.07/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.1024
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Not First Race After 45 Days Off

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 3 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $48000 Class Rating: 89

FOR RESTRICTED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOR MD BRED OR MD SIRED HORSES WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A STATE BRED/STATE SIRED/RESTRICTED OR STATE CERTIFIED RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, OR STARTER AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER,

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 DAILY PLANET 9/2
# 1 MY CANDY GIRL 8/5
# 6 TWELVEO'CLOCKROCK 7/2

DAILY PLANET supports the wager in here. She has a very good distance/surface win record - 1 for 4. MY CANDY GIRL - Boasts sound Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group of animals. Is a solid choice - given the 90 Equibase Speed Figure from her most recent race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Keeneland - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $43,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#4 PARIS KENTUCKY (ML=8/1)
#8 KEEN LADY (ML=7/5)


PARIS KENTUCKY - Maiden is moving to the dirt, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to get into the winner's circle for the first time. Faced tougher in the last race at Kentucky Downs. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker group, so I will put this horse on my list of top contenders. KEEN LADY - Cox drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping info to think this horse should run well at this level. I like the fact that this filly's last speed fig, 72, is tops in this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 LITERARY (ML=4/1), #3 TIAN'AI ROAD (ML=5/1), #1 BIRD HUNTER (ML=6/1),

LITERARY - The fig last out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced contender. TIAN'AI ROAD - Finished third in her most recent performance with a common rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this group. BIRD HUNTER - Not probable that the speed rating she earned on Sep 18th will be enough in this contest.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 PARIS KENTUCKY is the play if we get odds of 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #7 - Post: 9:49pm - Allowance - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $36,300 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#5 COUSIN WINNIE (ML=7/2)


COUSIN WINNIE - Last workout should have legged up this filly for today's race. When Latchman and McKee are put together on animals the return on investment has been fantastic at +28. Based on this filly's recent efforts, she should benefit from this shorter distance. Have to give this filly a good chance. Ran a solid effort last out within the last month. This filly is obviously on the improve with speed figures of 64, 68, 76 last 3 out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LUCYLOU WHO (ML=7/5), #2 SNOWY JUBA CAT (ML=5/2), #4 ELLIES LIL CASTLE (ML=5/1),

LUCYLOU WHO - In any race of 4 1/2 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been on the board in short distance events recently. I usually try to beat these types of chalk off the long layoff. SNOWY JUBA CAT - The effort in the last race on Sep 21st probably won't hold up against stiffer competition when they turn for home. ELLIES LIL CASTLE - Can't play this pony in today's sprint of 4 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance event lately. 5/1 odds isn't enough for this horse when examining the most recent showings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 COUSIN WINNIE to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Keeneland

10/20/22, KEE, Race 5, 3.08 ET
10/20/22,KEE,5,6F [Dirt] 1:07:04 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $57,000 (includes up to $14,000 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since September 20 Allowed 2 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $40,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Comiskey Park	12/1	Corrales G	Hernandez Armando	JFL	115	32.17	1.43/$1
097.8976	9	Constitutional Law	5/1	Arrieta F	Hartman Chris A.	T	115	32.17	1.43/$1
096.1042	10	Ampersand	9/2	Saez G	Shirer Matt A.		133	25.56	1.32/$1
095.5816	8	Atras	12/1	Graham J	Barkley Jason	E	115	32.17	1.43/$1
095.5488	1	Oskee Wow Wow	30/1	Cannon D	O'Dwyer Jeremiah	W	133	25.56	1.32/$1
094.5706	7	Cold as Hell	8/1	Saez L	Lukas D. Wayne		115	32.17	1.43/$1
094.2048	6	Mount Athos	4/1	Gaffalione T	Casse Norm W.		115	32.17	1.43/$1
094.0498	4	Data Storm	15/1	Jordan K R	Martin Timothy E.		115	32.17	1.43/$1
093.8094	2	Kunshan Bridge	20/1	Santana. Jr. R	Walden William	C	115	32.17	1.43/$1
093.7665	11	Spend Benjamins	15/1	Miranda R	Gonzalez Reina E.		115	32.17	1.43/$1
090.8206	3	Pledgeofallegiance	3/1	Talamo J	McGee Paul J.	S	115	32.17	1.43/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 27.59, ROI 1.07/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.1024
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Not First Race After 45 Days Off