Saturday 10/29/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Hotlist - October 29

October 28, 2022

BELMONT AT THE BIG A TIPS - SATURDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money % of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $77,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 12:35 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 PHOTON
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	7	Photon	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	5-1	4	Cape Cod Causeway	T McCarthy
SHOW	10-1	3	Cant Fool Me	M Franco
WILD CARD	9-2	8	Succulent	D Davis
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1A	Arisaema	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Bavarian Creme	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX
RACE #2 $95,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 1:06 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	3	War Fighter	M Franco
PLACE	5-2	7	Chucka Moon	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	8-5	8	Happy Bob	M Franco
WILD CARD	8-1	2	Captain Quick	P Lopez
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	6	Cleat	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	1	Clash A. J.	H K Harkie
* EXACTA: 3-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/7/8 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX
RACE #3 $105,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:42 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	4	Perceived	T McCarthy
PLACE	6-1	2	Luni Sima	J A Gomez
SHOW	4-1	5	Shipsational	J Castellano
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Three Jokers	M Franco
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	6	Money Supply	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	1	Winit	K Carmouche
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX
RACE #4 $120,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:12 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $120,000 AWAD STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Freedom Trail	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	4-1	3	Dandy Handyman	T McCarthy
SHOW	5-2	6	Lets Go Big Blue	E Cancel
WILD CARD	9-2	7	El de Chimi	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Sendero	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Noble Huntsman	M Franco
* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
COMMENTS: FREEDOM TRAIL win his debut with the top last race speed figure. DANDY HANDYMAN also won his debut and has a bullet work since. LETS GO BIG BLUEs internal numbers were better from start to finish in his last race. EL DE CHIMI showed some early improvement in his last and should be better in his second grass go.
RACE #5 $300,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 KELSO HANDICAP GRADE II
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-5	6	Baby Yoda	J Castellano
PLACE	4-1	3	Morello	D Davis
SHOW	3-1	2	Empty Tomb	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	5-1	1	Shackqueenking	A Suarez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Title Ready	E Wilson
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	5	Double Crown	J D Acosta
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
COMMENTS: BABY YODA won his last by 10 lengths with a brilliant late move. MORELLO won three of four Aqueduct races and they were not close. EMPTY TOMB never finished out of the money in five at the Big A. SCACKQUEENKING is on a three race win streak and ran better times last out.
RACE #6 $110,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 MRS. GREEN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	1	Mrs. Green	F Prat
PLACE	9-2	6	Gogo Shoes	D Davis
SHOW	7-2	7	Stop War	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	4-1	4	Mischievous Dream	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	3	Secret Time	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Mademoiselle Nova	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
RACE #7 $105,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:48 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 INVINCIBLE GAL
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	5	Invincible Gal	F Prat
PLACE	2-1	1	Customer List	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	8-1	3	Timeless Journey	D Davis
WILD CARD	15-1	8	Tuscan Queen	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Icy Stare Down	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	10	Caironi	T McCarthy
* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX
RACE #8 $120,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:22 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $120,000 PUMPKIN PIE STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	5	Glass Ceiling	D Davis
PLACE	6-1	6	Oxana	P Lopez
SHOW	9-5	2	Boston Post Road	F Prat
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Dr B	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	1	W W Fitzy	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Corey	I Ortiz Jr.
* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
COMMENTS: GLASS CEILING stepping down in class and has some good works getting ready for her first race since early July. OXANA should be on the gas from go to photo. BOSTON POST ROAD is a neck and a nose from winning four of his six races. DR B tends to make strong mid moves which are important is sprints.
RACE #9 $200,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:54 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 BOLD RULER STAKES GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	4	Jaxon Traveler	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	4-1	7	Eastern Bay	J Castellano
SHOW	9-2	8	Runninsonofagun	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Drafted	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Factor It In	J Ruiz
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Greeley and Ben	J A Vargas Jr.
* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/8 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX
COMMENTS: JAXON TRAVELER missed as the chalk in his last. Trainer Steven Asmussen rebounds at 25 percent the next time out with beaten favorites. EASTERN BAY was much better through the first half of his last race. RUNNINSONOFAGUN has a pair or wins and thirds in four at the distance. DRAFTED should be better in his third start after a layoff.
RACE #10 $65,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 5:24 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	1	Inflation Adjusted	K Carmouche
PLACE	9-2	7	Royal Spirit	D Davis
SHOW	4-1	4	St. Joe Louis	M Franco
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Relate	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Six Minus	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Sonic Speed	E Cancel
* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Tip Sheet - October 29

October 28, 2022

SANTA ANITA TIPS - SATURDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $80,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 GREGORIAN CHANT
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	3	Gregorian Chant	U Rispoli
PLACE	3-1	1	Carmelitas Man	M E Smith
SHOW	5-2	5	Air Force Red	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	5-2	2	Prince Abama	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Mr. Impossible	J Bravo
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	4	Lambeau	V Espinoza
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
RACE #2 $50,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:31 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 GOLDEN AGAIN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	4	Golden Again	T J Pereira
PLACE	2-1	2	Night Party	K Frey
SHOW	12-1	5	Only Lightning	E A Ellingwood
WILD CARD	15-1	3	Wink Wish and Park	J Matias
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Hollywood Rumor	D A Herrera
ALTERNATE 2	3-1	6	Sweet Hello	T Baze
* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #3 $200,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:04 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 GOLDIKOVA STAKES GRADE II
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-5	5	Going Global	U Rispoli
PLACE	5-2	4	Avenue de France	J J Hernandez
SHOW	4-1	2	Burgoo Alley	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Englands Rose	V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	1	Cover Version	R Curatolo
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Karakatsie	J Bravo
* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
COMMENTS: GLOBING GLOBAL has five wins and a third in six at Santa Anita. AVENUE DE FRANCE tied for the top last race speed figure. BURGOO ALLEY has some strong early pace numbers and just needs the right fractions. ENGLANDS ROSE has two wins in four at Santa Anita and just one win in six elsewhere.
RACE #4 $63,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 LOVESICK BLUES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	6	Lovesick Blues	R A Vazquez
PLACE	3-1	2	Redline	R Curatolo
SHOW	5-2	3	Traegar	M E Smith
WILD CARD	8-1	4	Albizu	K Frey
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	5	Saffas Day	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	Straight No Chaser	E A Maldonado
* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #5 $61,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:06 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	2	Valiancer	K Frey
PLACE	5-2	3	First Peace	M E Smith
SHOW	15-1	5	The Slap	M Gutierrez
WILD CARD	4-1	7	Eastbound	V Espinoza
ALTERNATE 1	4-1	8	Zio Jo	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Mucino	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX
RACE #6 $175,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:36 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $175,000 JUVENILE FILLIES STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	7	Cast Member	R A Vazquez
PLACE	9-5	2	Chismosa	E Payeras
SHOW	5-2	4	Big Celebration	E A Maldonado
WILD CARD	5-2	6	Sell the Dream	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Fun Money	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Cholly	T Baze
* EXACTA: 7-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
COMMENTS: CAST MEMBER won her debut with ease. CHISMOSA is undefeated in three and they were easy wins. BIG CELEBRATION won her last by 7 lengths as the one to two favorite. SELL THE DREAM just missed in a GIII last out the drop in class could be the difference.
RACE #7 $200,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 7:06 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 TWILIGHT DERBY GRADE II
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	9	War At Sea	M E Smith
PLACE	6-1	4	Handy Dandy	U Rispoli
SHOW	4-1	5	Cabo Spirit	J Bravo
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Perfect Flight	R A Vazquez
ALTERNATE 1	3-1	8	Speaking Scout	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	1	Seven Wonders	H I Berrios
* EXACTA: 9-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/9 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
COMMENTS: WAR AT SEA has three wins and two thirds in five races. HANDY DANDY is not that far from winning six in a row. CABO SPIRIT finished in the money six of seven on turf. PERFECT FLIGHT ran the top last race speed figure.
RACE #8 $175,000 STAKES 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:36 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $175,000 JUVENILE STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	15-1	1	Midnight Lightning	H I Berrios
PLACE	5-1	6	Golf Drama	T Baze
SHOW	4-1	2	Passarando	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	4-5	4	Giver Not a Taker	J Valdivia Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	3	Mystic Flyer	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	7	Merit Song	R A Vazquez
* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
COMMENTS: MIDNIGHT LIGHTNING is a live longshot if he runs back two races. GOLF DRAMA won his last and could be better in his third start after a layoff. PASSARANDO was better across the board in his last. GIVER NOT A TAKER won his first two on dirt and then tried grass. The switch back to dirt here.
RACE #9 $100,000 STAKES 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 8:06 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 SENATOR KEN MADDY STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	3	Connie Swingle	K Frey
PLACE	6-1	2	Lexington Humor	R A Vazquez
SHOW	3-1	9	Amy C	U Rispoli
WILD CARD	4-1	1	Freedom Flyer	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	10	Aqua Seaform Shame	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Stella Noir	R Curatolo
* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/9 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX
COMMENTS: CONNIE SWINGLE is undefeated in three at the distance. LEXINGTON HUMOR can win from on of off the pace. AMY C ran some better fractions last out and has some really strong works getting ready for this spot. FREEDOM FLYERS tied her best speed figure in her last race and good be better in round two off the bench.
RACE #10 $100,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 8:36 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $100,000 AUTUMN MISS STAKES GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	10	Cairo Memories	M E Smith
PLACE	6-1	8	Rhea Moon	J J Hernandez
SHOW	5-1	3	Pammys Ready	R A Vazquez
WILD CARD	12-1	12	Kitty Kitana	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Gracelund Gray	M Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Tezzaray	J Valdivia Jr.
* EXACTA: 10-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/10 BOX, 3/8/12 BOX
COMMENTS: CAIRO MEMORIES is undefeated in three at Santa Anita. RHEA MOON raised her speed figure three in a row. PAMMYS READY ran some better fractions last out. KITTY KITANA will be rolling late as she has closed ground in each of her five races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

World Series
Saturday’s game

Philadelphia @ Houston (Phillies lead, 1-0)
Wheeler is 2-1, 1.34 in his last seven starts.
He is 6-4, 3.84 in 16 road starts this year.
He is 1-1, 1.78 in four postseason starts.
He’s never pitched against Houston.

Phillies are 10-2 in playoff games this month, 5-2 on road.
Bullpen threw 5.2 scoreless IP last night.
Phillies are 76-48 since they changed managers.
Phillies are 45-43 on road this year.
Phillies are in the World Series for first time since 2009.

Valdez is 2-0, 2.04 in his last three starts.
He is 7-4, 3.54 in 14 home starts this year.
He is 5-2, 3.83 in ten postseason starts.
He threw 5 shutout IP in his only start vs Philly.

Houston is 7-1 in playoffs this month.
Astros are 59-27 at home.
Houston is in playoffs for 6th year in row- they were in World Series three of last five years.

Phillies are 2-2 in Houston this season.

[ConleyPicks]

KEENELAND TIPS - SATURDAY, OCTOBER 29, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 62% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 JOANS WAY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	2	Joans Way	L Saez
PLACE	3-1	3	Alsanah	T Gaffalione
SHOW	4-1	6	Renae Nae	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	7-2	7	Avarie	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 1	50-1	4	Pacific Grove	J Padron-Barcenas
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Totosrubyslippers	C J Hernandez
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
RACE #2 $40,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	8	Big Java	T Gaffalione
PLACE	15-1	1	Bayshore Foxes	E Morales
SHOW	5-2	4	Dallas Volunteer	L Saez
WILD CARD	5-1	10	Surcharge	J Graham
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	9	Very Wealthy	I Ayala
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	6	Ma Cherie	J R Leparoux
* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/8 BOX, 1/4/10 BOX
RACE #3 $100,000 OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	6	Envoutante	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	6-1	4	Bye Bye Bertie	J Rosario
SHOW	7-2	5	Mariahs Princess	M Garcia
WILD CARD	3-1	3	Le Da Vida	V Cheminaud
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Jungle Juice	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	2	Wills Secret	L Saez
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #4 $110,000 ALLOWANCE 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 OLGA ISABEL
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-5	7	Olga Isabel	J Rosario
PLACE	10-1	8	Mercy Warren	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	9-2	2	Hypersport	C Bailey
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Braganza	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	5	Feeling Happy	J Graham
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Gina	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/8 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX
RACE #5 $110,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	12	Rarified Flair	C J Lanerie
PLACE	7-2	2	General Jim	L Saez
SHOW	15-1	8	Bling	M Garcia
WILD CARD	4-1	10	Mendels Secret	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	16	Tapits Conquest	F Geroux
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Disdainful	J R Velazquez
* EXACTA: 12-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/12 BOX, 2/8/10 BOX
RACE #6 $200,000 STAKES 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $200,000 BOWMAN MILL STAKES
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-1	6	Hurricane J	J Talamo
PLACE	7-2	1	Raise Cain	G Corrales
SHOW	3-1	2	Sir Lancelot	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Super Chow	C Sutherland
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	3	Quick Hammer	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	7	Bourbon Bash	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
COMMENTS: HURRICANE J is undefeated in two and was much better in second race. RAISE CAIN won his last with ease running the best last race speed figure. SIR LANCELOT won both of his races by at least 7 lengths. SUPER CHOW has some superior early and mid race pace numbers.
RACE #7 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET
BEST BET: #11 CAPE TRAFALGAR
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	11	Cape Trafalgar	L Saez
PLACE	6-1	14	Lupos Legacy	L Saez
SHOW	10-1	5	Plausible Denile	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	5-1	6	Pricing Power	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Arrogates Spirit	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	9	Power Seeker	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 11-14 BOX, 14-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/11/14 BOX, 5/6/14 BOX
RACE #8 $300,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $300,000 BYRAN STATION STAKES GRADE III
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	8	Wit	J L Ortiz
PLACE	4-1	5	Classic Causeway	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	10-1	7	Double Clutch	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	10-1	12	Play Action Pass	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	15	Churchtown	T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Balnikhov	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 8-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/8 BOX, 5/7/12 BOX
COMMENTS: WIT is a highly consistent performer and his works say he will put in another top notch effort today. CLASSIC CAUSEWAY can steal this one on the lead with the right fractions. DOUBLE CLUTCH run his best late and fresh off a layoff like today. PLAY ACTION PASS won his last two and three of last four.
RACE #9 $350,000 STAKES 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:16 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $350,000 HAGYARD FAYETTE STAKES GRADE II
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	3	Fulsome	F Geroux
PLACE	4-1	1	West Will Power	J Rosario
SHOW	6-5	4	First Captain	L Saez
WILD CARD	8-1	5	King Fury	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	2	Chess Chief	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Last Samurai	T Gaffalione
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
COMMENTS: FULSOME should be better in his second start after a layoff and a bullet workout. WEST WILL POWER is another that could step forward in round two off the bench and a bullet work between races. FIRST CAPTAIN will likely try to close and take advantage of his abundant late power. KING FURYs ast race was better than it looks with improved early pace.
RACE #10 $140,000 ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:48 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	1	Illegal Smile	J L Ortiz
PLACE	7-2	6	Spicy Marg	J R Velazquez
SHOW	9-2	5	Lemos Cunha	D L Parker
WILD CARD	15-1	2	Miners Queen	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	9	Cheetara	V Cheminaud
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	New Boss	A Beschizza
* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX

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Race 8 at Keeneland | Saturday October 29 | Post Time 4:44 PM EasternBryan Station Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile on Turf | Three Year Olds

Analysis and win contenders:
Balnikhov (2) has a strong and consistent career record of 4-3-2 in 10 career races, many of those in Europe before importing to the U.S. this past April. He finished second in a pair of stakes races in his first two local starts, then two races later won the Del Mar (California) opening day featured Oceanside Stakes at this one mile trip on turf. In his only start since then, Balnikhov was in a very tough field in the Del Mar Derby, won by a horse which controlled the pace from start to finish on slow fractions, making it difficult for ANY other horse to finish fast. Nevertheless, he went from eighth to fourth and was just a neck behind the third finisher. In this race, Classic Causeway may or may not be the only horse which wants the early lead, but even so the pace will be honest and that provides Balnikhov with a big chance to run the way he did when winning the Oceanside Stakes.
Ready to Purrform (1) has a very similar story to Balnikhov, as he won the Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga in August then finished sixth in the Dueling Grounds Derby last month. He got a very poor outside (11) post position in that race but today with the rail jockey Joel Rosario should be able to either put him on the lead from the start, or put him in position behind Classic Causeway where he can pressure that leader and go by in the late stages.
Wit (8) was second behind Ready to Purrform in the Hall of Fame Stakes this summer, then won the Better Talk Now Stakes at the end of August, a race nearly identical in class to the Oceanside Stakes won by Balnikhov. Wit has now won four of eight races and his best efforts are good enough to win here if repeated, but he will have some tough competition which is as good and as fast as he is.
In addition to the three win contenders above, there are three other horses that can be part of the exacta or trifecta by finishing second or third. Those are likely early leader Classic Causeway (5), Double Clutch (7) and Churchtown (15).
Win bets: Balnikhov (2) and Ready to Purrform (1) should both be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Exactas:
Ready to Purrform (1). Balnikhov (2) and Wit (8) over Ready to Purrform (1). Balnikhov (2), Wit (8), Classic Causeway (5), Double Clutch (7) and Churchtown (15).

[ConleyPicks]

Today’s Keeneland Hot List races to watch
Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2nd race – (8) Big Java was second last time and should be able to handle the class jump off the Lauer claim. (10) Surcharge broke her maiden easily and could be dangerous against winners. (7) Candy Kick is worth a look off the win and claim. (1) Bayshore Foxes may be tough to catch from the rail. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-7-8-10.
4th race – (4) Braganza (A) won easily last time and can prevail once again in this field. (5) Feeling Happy also comes off a solid win and looks like the main rival. (1) Fine Family might wake up in this spot. (7) Olga Isabel was disqualified from a win last time and can make amends here. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-7. Doubles: 1-4-5-7 with 2-3-10-12.
5th race – (2) General Jim posted a solid victory in his turf debut and seems ready for another big effort here. (3) Disdainful could be dangerous in his U.S. debut. (10) Mendel’s Secret was victorious in his career debut and cannot be overlooked. (12) Rarified Flair has some ability but drew a difficult post. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-10-12.
8th race – (5) Classic Causeway returns to 3-year-old company and should lead throughout here. (8) Wit seems to have found a new favored surface on turf. (6) Portfolio Company seems set for a top effort in his return to stakes company. (2) Balnikhov should be a major threat in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-6-8. Doubles: 2-5-6-8 with 1-4-6.
9th race – (4) First Captain has been facing the top older horses and has a class edge here. (6) Last Samurai will be dangerous on her best try. (1) West Will Power should benefit from a rail trip here.

No.

Letter/Last race

Today’s race

Comment

(4)

Braganza

A, 9/28

4 Kee

Won easily last time

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Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, October 29, 2022
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2nd race [Md Sp Wt, 6F TURF] – (3) War Fighter (B) made his debut almost a year ago at Aqueduct at 8-1 for Graham Motion and ran fourth after having to steady at the quarter pole. (6) Cleat returned from a year off to press the pace and finish fourth at Kentucky Downs for Bill Mott against a 12 horse field. (7) Chucka Moon came back from a seven-month break and made a big improvement in his two starts since the layoff. (5) Stealththirtyfour will make his second career start for Linda Rice and moves to the turf.
4th race [Awad, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (6) Let’s Go Big Blue was a debut winner at Saratoga against NY-breds and then was third in a stakes race at Monmouth Park ahead of a few horses from this field when he lacked racing room. (4) Freedom Trail won his first start at this meeting last month with a closing move for John Terranova. (3) Dandy Handyman was another winner of his first start which happened at Colonial Downs going a mile on the grass. (7) El de Chimi finished a length behind the top choice in that stakes race after an easy maiden win at Monmouth.
5th race [Kelso (G2), 1 mi] – (2) Empty Tomb returned from a 10 month layoff to win a top level allowance at Delaware Park just three weeks ago. He hit the board in five starts at Aqueduct in the past and now gets Irad Ortiz on board for the first time. (3) Morello won the first three starts in his career at Aqueduct going from a maiden win as a 2-year-old to the Jimmy WInkfield and then the Gotham (G3) in March of this year. Trainer Steve Asmussen gave him some time off after he tried the Wood (G2) and the Woody Stephens (G1). He was off from June and then returned as a winner of an allowance sprint at Laurel earlier this month. (6) Baby Yoda is frequently over bet because of his name. He was a 10-length winner of an allowance at BAQ recently, but he has not done well when he stepped up to graded stakes company. (1) Shackqueenking won his last three starts at Delaware Park in two-turn races in a pair of allowances and then a restricted stakes race while pressing the early pace.
6th race [OC62k/N2X, 6F TURF] – (7) Stop War has lots of early speed which she has used to get a trio of top three finishes in turf sprints and is projected to be on the lead again. (6) Gogo Shoes was claimed for $75,000 two races back after racing on the lead at Colonial. New trainer Mike Maker brought her back at Kentucky Downs in a stakes race. She does have several excellent finishes in past turf sprints. (4) Mischievous Dream has a series of top three finishes in turf sprints for Christophe Clement. (1) Mrs. Green won a first-level allowance at BAQ just two weeks ago following a pair of excellent efforts.

Best bets: War Fighter (2nd); Let’s Go Big Blue (4th). Best value: Empty Tomb (5th); Stop War (6th).
[COLOR=#4F4F4F][FONT=&quot]Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 4-6 and includes the Awad and the Kelso (G2)

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