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Saturday 10/29/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, October 29, 2022
10/29 09:00 PM PT / 12:00 AM ET Sunday
CF (193) WYOMING VS (194) HAWAII
Take: (193) WYOMING
Reason: Wyoming coming off two straight wins over New Mexico, 27-14 and then last week at home over Utah State, 28-14. The Cowboys now 5-3 on the season and looking to get bowl eligible with four games left in the regular season. They will need to win the next two over Hawaii and Colorado State because they have Boise and Fresno to close out the year and those won't be easy. Hawaii coming off a loss at Colorado State, 13-17, though they covered the 5.5-point dog line. The Rainbow Warriors are now 2-6 S/U and 4-3 ATS. Two poor offenses meet here on Saturday as Wyoming is ranked 113th and Hawaii ranked 116th overall. The difference is that Wyoming has a better than average defense, ranked 57th while Hawaii comes in at 111th. Wyoming looking for some payback this year after Hawaii came into Laramie last year and beat the Pokes, 38-14. The teams have split the last four meetings, both S/U and ATS. Wyoming has covered four of their last five road games and are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Conference games. I'll lay the points here on Saturday with the visitors. Take Wyoming.
Arkansas -3.5 1.1% Free Play **8-5 This year on Free Picks
I believe Bryan Harsin is a dead guy walking here and a bye is not going to save his job. Arkansas is coming in a little under rated even though they are a field goal favorite this was a team that was destined for a top 10 rating before they lost to Texas A&M on a KJ Jefferson fumble that was returned for a TD, making it a 10-14 point swing. The bye certainly helped Arkansas more with KJ Jefferson getting a chance to rest up, and a little bit more time to plan for the road trip to Auburn, a home field advantage that does not necessarily look as strong. Auburn should have lost ot Missouri in OT at home, they got beat badly by Penn State, only beat San Jose State 24-16. Blew a double digit lead to LSU, and last year they lost 3 of 4 home games vs. SEC opponents at home, and that’s why I think Harsin is going to be gone after this season or maybe this game.
Let’s look at the match up as both teams want and need to run the ball to win. Both defenses struggle to stop the run, but Arkansas seems to be a bit better at both, and they have the balance of the passing game with KJ Jefferson, and Auburn’s pass defense has been good, but if their offense can’t stay on the field this Arkansas offense will wear them down. Auburn ranks 121st in defensive ypc, and their offense ranks 108th in third downs. The only time Arkansas defense really struggled vs. the run is when their offense could not stay on the field, and their defense got worn down. They held Alabama in check for 3 quarters until they exploded in the 4th for 300+ yards other than that they’ve been pretty solid. Alabama obviously has the threat of a passing game which is the bigger weakness for this Arkansas defense.
Arkansas is 13th in third down conversions, and I feel like they can control this game on the road with a veteran QB who does not turn the ball over. Arkansas 19th in % of possessions ending in a TO, while Auburn ranks 126th. This is a match up that Arkansas has been dominated in the past, winning 8 of the last 10, but I think that’s something that will motivate this Arkansas team during the bye. How much does Auburn have to gain by beating Arkansas, and how much does this coaching staff care? They likely know they are on their way out, and I just see Arkansas wanting/needing this game more.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 4-3 this season with Greg Schiano and company having their sights set on actually qualifying for a bowl game after coming up one win short last season. Schiano has been getting the most out of this team, and I look for them to give the Minnesota Golden Gophers a run for their money Saturday.
The Scarlet Knights have really only been blown out once this season, which was a 49-10 loss to Ohio State. That's a Buckeyes team that looks like the best in the country. Their 27-10 loss to Iowa was much closer than the final score would indicate. They actually outgained Iowa by 84 yards in that game but gave up 14 points to Iowa's defense with an INT return and a fumble return TD. They also lost by one to Nebraska for their third defeat. I don't see how Minnesota can be trusted as this big of a favorite with how poorly they have played of late once the schedule finally got difficult. They have been overvalued since a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start against the likes of New Mexico State, Western Illinois, Colorado and Michigan State. They followed that up with an 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS run getting upset 20-10 as 9-point home favorites by Purdue, 26-14 as 4.5-point road favorites at Illinois and 45-17 as 5.5-point road dogs at Penn State.
This Minnesota offense is broken. They are averaging just 13.7 points per game and 274.7 yards per game during their three-game losing streak. QB Tanner Morgan has been a major disappointment, and he doesn't have many weapons outside. The Golden Gophers have become too predictable as teams can load up to stop the run against them. Rutgers has one of the best run defenses in the country. They allow just 88 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry, so this is a great matchup for them. I don't see how Minnesota is going to be able to score enough points to win this game by more than two touchdowns, which is what it's going to take to cover this inflated number. The Scarlet Knights are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games. Schiano is 31-14 ATS as a road underdog in his career as a head coach. Schiano is 17-3 ATS in road games after having lost two of his last three games as a head coach. Bet Rutgers Saturday.
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