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Jack Jones
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Indianapolis Colts -3
I like the move for the Indianapolis Colts switching to Sam Ehlinger as their starting quarterback for the rest of the season. Matt Ryan led the NFL in turnovers with 9 interceptions and the most fumbles of any quarterback thus far. The offensive line isn't playing great, but he holds onto the ball too long. Ehlinger's dual-threat ability will at least give this offense a chance moving forward. The Colts have been wasting a good defense up to this point. They rank 8th in the NFL in total defense at 313.7 yards per game and 7th in the NFL in allowing just 5.1 yards per play. What makes those numbers even more impressive is they have been doing it without their best player in LB Shaq Leonard for the majority of the season. Well, Leonard is listed as probable this week and should return from a concussion. The Colts got great injury news overall this week and are as healthy as they've been all season.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Washington Commanders. They are coming off two consecutive victories over the Bears and Packers. They had no business winning that Chicago game as they were outgained by 177 yards and held to 214 total yards of offense. The Commanders benefited from the Bears scoring zero points on three trips inside the 5-yard line, and a muffed punt late that gave them a very short field for the game-winning score. The Green Bay win was solid, but as we've seen the Packers had lost to the Jets and Giants and needed OT to beat the Patriots in their three games prior. I just think this line has been adjusted down too much for the switch from Ryan to Ehlinger. It can't be any worse than it was and is likely an upgrade. Plus, the Colts have the element of surprise working in their favor as the Commanders have no idea what to expect with Ehlinger with no game film on him. I also think Taylor Heineke is getting a little too much respect as well. The Packers dropped a few interceptions against him that would have changed the game last week.
The numbers show this isn't a very good Washington team. They rank 30th in the NFL at 4.9 yards per play on offense, and 16th in the NFL allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense. They are getting outgained by 0.6 yards per play on the season. Yards per play is one of my favorite stats in the NFL because it is the most translatable to tell you how good a team actually is. The Colts are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss. The Colts are 51-25-1 ATS in their last 77 games following a SU loss. Indianapolis is coming off a misleading 19-10 loss to Tennessee last week in which they held the Titans to 254 total yards but committed three turnovers, which was the difference. That is adding to our value this week. Bet the Colts Sunday.
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Indianapolis Colts -3
I like the move for the Indianapolis Colts switching to Sam Ehlinger as their starting quarterback for the rest of the season. Matt Ryan led the NFL in turnovers with 9 interceptions and the most fumbles of any quarterback thus far. The offensive line isn't playing great, but he holds onto the ball too long. Ehlinger's dual-threat ability will at least give this offense a chance moving forward. The Colts have been wasting a good defense up to this point. They rank 8th in the NFL in total defense at 313.7 yards per game and 7th in the NFL in allowing just 5.1 yards per play. What makes those numbers even more impressive is they have been doing it without their best player in LB Shaq Leonard for the majority of the season. Well, Leonard is listed as probable this week and should return from a concussion. The Colts got great injury news overall this week and are as healthy as they've been all season.
It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Washington Commanders. They are coming off two consecutive victories over the Bears and Packers. They had no business winning that Chicago game as they were outgained by 177 yards and held to 214 total yards of offense. The Commanders benefited from the Bears scoring zero points on three trips inside the 5-yard line, and a muffed punt late that gave them a very short field for the game-winning score. The Green Bay win was solid, but as we've seen the Packers had lost to the Jets and Giants and needed OT to beat the Patriots in their three games prior. I just think this line has been adjusted down too much for the switch from Ryan to Ehlinger. It can't be any worse than it was and is likely an upgrade. Plus, the Colts have the element of surprise working in their favor as the Commanders have no idea what to expect with Ehlinger with no game film on him. I also think Taylor Heineke is getting a little too much respect as well. The Packers dropped a few interceptions against him that would have changed the game last week.
The numbers show this isn't a very good Washington team. They rank 30th in the NFL at 4.9 yards per play on offense, and 16th in the NFL allowing 5.5 yards per play on defense. They are getting outgained by 0.6 yards per play on the season. Yards per play is one of my favorite stats in the NFL because it is the most translatable to tell you how good a team actually is. The Colts are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Indianapolis is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss. The Colts are 51-25-1 ATS in their last 77 games following a SU loss. Indianapolis is coming off a misleading 19-10 loss to Tennessee last week in which they held the Titans to 254 total yards but committed three turnovers, which was the difference. That is adding to our value this week. Bet the Colts Sunday.
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