Thursday 11/3/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Shot - Jerry Shottenkirk
TOP SHOT
Remington Park Selections
Thursday, November 3

1st Race
6 DARE TO BE WILD
3 GOLDBRIDGE
2 IZEONDEC
7 RYE RUNNER

2nd Race
1 CRAZY LOVER
2 DIXIELAND QUALITY
7 JEANO
5 LUCKY KINGBIRD

3rd Race
5 LADY AVE
1 LACEY BOSS
7 SCARLET POSITION
6 SHE’S FIRE AND ICE

4th Race
1 DRAGONFLY JACK
6 GOLD N SILVER
2 STROLL LIKN OUTLAW
5 MR. WULLY BULLY

5th Race
10 HAPPY ROMANCE
2 WHISKEY NOT WINE
4 SPERLE
9 MOUNTAIN BREEZE

6th Race
4 CAN HE STORM
3 PROUD MOMENTS
5 FRESH ONE
10 EXCITING

7th Race
9 HAPPY IN HEELS
8 FLY CONDOR
5 CRIMSON LADY
10 LADY FARRAH

8th Race
3 CHILLAXIFICATION
5 SIGICRICKET
13 SINNIN N GRINNIN
2 SERENDIPITY COCO

9th Race
12 MY CALANTE
4 SWEET ALEX
6 FROM PIT TO PALACE
7 BROTHER GARRY

TODAY’S BEST BET
LADY AVE (3rd)

PICK FIVE
(Races 1-5)
6-3-2-7 with 1-2 with 5-1 with 1-6 with 10-2 ($32)

PREMIER PICK FOUR
(Races 2-5)
1-2 with 5-1-7-6 with 1-6 with 10-2-4 ($24)

PRIMETIME PICK FOUR
(Races 6-9)
4-3-5-10 with 9-8-5-10 with 3-5 with 12-4 ($32)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 3

November 2, 2022

Today’s Churchill Downs Hot List races to watch
Thursday, Nov. 3, 2022

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more. +

2nd race – (6) Hometown Hero is equally proficient on turf and dirt and looks best in this spot for a winning barn. (3) Arthurian could have a say in the outcome. (2) American Pure missed by a nose and can make amends here. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-6. Doubles: 2-3-6 with 1-2-5-8.

3rd race – (1) Let Me Love You (A) missed by a half-length last time while racing wide and makes amends from the rail. (2) Winters Lion didn’t fire in his debut but may like the added distance. (5) Booster Shot is worth a look in his career debut. (8) Wicked Secret may pose a threat in the stretch. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2. Exactas: 1-2 over 5-8 and 5-8 over 1-2.

6th race – (6) Hellorhighwater was second at this level and can prevail today. (10) Not Yet Charlie should appreciate the class drop. (8) Barstow was third behind the top pick and should be in the picture once again. (4) Overthought will welcome a return to dirt. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-6-8-10.

8th race – (5) Loma Vista was third for a similar price tag at Del Mar and gets the nod in this field. (6) Keepmeinthe Moment has some speed and could be tough to catch here. (9) Cant Be Touched should also be part of the early pace and might hang on. (3) Shezz Koldazice may contend off the win and claim. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-5-6-9.

10th race – (2) Reserve Currency had a useful comeback race after a year layoff and should move forward here. (8) Mount Craig seems like the one to fear. (4) Electromagnetic rallied belatedly in his debut and figures to be more formidable today. (5) Town Branch looks like the one to catch in this field. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5-8.

No.


Letter/Last race


Today’s race




Comment
















(1)


Let Me Love You


A, 9/28


3 CD


Was a wide second last time

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 Drag Malibu He'll rise for this with 11 starts under his belt, so I'd want a fair price to land here, but there is at least a little upside on the move over to the turf for the first time in a race that doesn't feel all that deep.
#6 Dare to Be Wild He's a bit classier than some of these, but the fact remains he's still a maiden after 15 starts, and I wouldn't want to be here at any kind of short price. Capable underlay?
#2 Izeondec Finisher has run okay in a couple turf starts, and he wouldn't be a surprise with this group if he were able to run back to his most recent start. One of the obvious players.
Race Summary Drag Malibu might offer a mid-range price, and he moves to the turf for the first time in a race where some of the more logical players are a bit underwhelming for me. Stretchout player gets offers a little intrigue.

Remington Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Serendipity Coco She was much better when drawn further out in the second career start, and she's right in the picture with winners if she is able to bring anything similar with this bunch.
#3 Chillaxification She seemed well meant in the debut try and powered home to score in that second career start, and I can see her getting a decent trip while stepping up.
#13 Sinnin N Grinnin Her best stuff keeps her in the mix here, but she'll have to hustle from the outside and could wind up with a wide trip with a couple other pace players lined up further inside.
Race Summary Serendipity Coco and Chillaxification both look capable off easy wins, and they might end up in similar spots with a chance to get first jump turning for home.

Remington Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#12 My Calante He didn't pick up a whole lot in the sprint debut, but there's reason to think he'll be better while stretching around two turns with that experience under his belt. Mid-range price player can land this at a trip that might be better suited for him.
#7 Brother Garry He was well in front of the top choice when they met here last month, and he should be able to find a great spot right near the top while moving around two turns. Possible.
#10 Nightwind He has turned in a couple nice efforts since getting around two turns, but he has been a bit vulnerable late in his races, so I figure there's a good chance he settles underneath again here. Still, he has some appeal on the turf.
Race Summary My Calante has room to come forward in this first route try, as a more leisurely pace may work in his favor while allowing him to relax and launch a rally late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #1
Picks Notes
#8 STREET LEGAL (4-1) Wide on turn, bumped in lane, returns on short rest to go a route of ground.
#1 SELF INFLICTED (6-1) Late-running threat on the class drop if some pace flow develops.
#6 MUROMEC (2-1) Two wins and four thirds in last six starts for a higher claiming price.
Race Summary STREET LEGAL, whose eight wins are double that of anyone in the field, bid 5-wide on the final turn and bumped a rival in the stretch before the deep-closing top two pair passed by at 7F. He chased the 2-to-5 winner the last time he stretched out to this distance and looms a forward factor throughout as the light-weight in the field. Bet to win and place.

Woodbine - Race #3
Picks Notes
#6 FASHIONABLY FAB (1-1) Lived up to the hype in second start, now goes long in speed-laden field.
#3 SIXTH ANNIVERSARY (6-1) Back with own kind, late-running style suits her well in this spot.
#2 SOUPER SINCLAIR (5-2) Broke maiden on turf at 7F, raced close up for this far in stakes route.
Race Summary FASHIONABLY FAB, a beaten first-out favorite, controlled the pace in her second start and drew off to a popular 11-length victory. She ran 1-3/5 seconds faster than the boys in a $40,000 maiden claimer on the same card. Play 6-2 and 6-3 exactas.

Woodbine - Race #5
Picks Notes
#7 REMEMBEROLDTYMES (6-1) Re-rallied for three-peat after she was out-dueled by the favorite.
#2 EVER SO D’WILD (2-1) Sat perfect trip to win on preferred turf surface, can join $100k Club.
#5 FRERET (4-1) Plays to a steady beat at any sprint distance, returns to proper level.
Race Summary REMEMBEROLDTYMES arrives from Fort Erie riding a three-race winning streak. She appeared to be back-pedaling after a hard duel with the favorite, only to resurface on the sloppy track, kick clear in mid-stretch and continue strong on the gallop out. She’s worth a win and place bet at 6-1 on the morning line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
PURCHASE
Remington Park - Race 4

WPS / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) (.50 Cent Minimum)


Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 65 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 8:31P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. GOLD N SILVER is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GOLD N SILVER: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a la yoff, after two sprint prep races. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DRAGONFLY JACK: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Ho rse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6
GOLD N SILVER
6/1

3/2
1
DRAGONFLY JACK
2/1

7/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
DRAGONFLY JACK
1

2/1
Front-runner
67

67

34.6

64.4

60.9
6
GOLD N SILVER
6

6/1
Alternator/Front-runner
75

78

71.1

76.8

73.8
8
HE'S GOT CHROME
8

10/1
Alternator/Front-runner
0

0

34.4

48.4

39.4
7
BOTANY
7

8/1
Alternator/Stalker
70

59

64.4

46.6

36.6
5
MR. WULLY BULLY
5

5/1
Alternator/Stalker
67

64

42.7

47.7

37.7
2
STROLL LIKN OUTLAW
2

4/1
Alternator/Non-contender
53

37

39.4

39.4

26.4
4
JOHN LOUIS' BEVO
4

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

24.6

37.0

27.0
3
LIBERTY SPIRIT
3

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

18.0

36.0

25.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park
PURCHASE
Delaware Park - Race 5

$1 Double / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 5-7) .50 Pick 4 (Races 5-8)


Claiming $8,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 2:30P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 3, 2022 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MAY 3, 2022. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 3, 2022 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $5,000 1 LB. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. W W SPRINGTIME is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * W W SPRINGTIME: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2
W W SPRINGTIME
2/1

9/5




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
2
W W SPRINGTIME
1

2/1
Front-runner
98

84

101.2

85.2

80.7
3
STAR LUCK
2

6/1
Front-runner
85

71

70.4

66.2

55.7
6
MR. WALSH
7

3/1
Stalker
88

87

83.4

78.0

73.0
1
TOP BOSS
4

8/1
Alternator/Stalker
91

79

85.2

70.0

62.5
7
YABBA DABBA DUDE
8

4/1
Alternator/Stalker
93

70

49.6

77.8

70.8
5
CLASSY SOLUTION
6

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
83

68

52.8

66.6

51.6
4
JEEZUM JIM
3

8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
80

71

52.4

65.4

53.9
1A
WHIRLIN CURLIN
5

8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
83

75

7.0

68.6

58.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #4 - Post: 2:09pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,400 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 JOES A ROCKIN (ML=5/2)


JOES A ROCKIN - Taking a trip down the class scale; has the class ability to make his presence felt. The rest of the group may trail this thoroughbred all the way around the track. I like the fact that this gelding's last rating, 67, is tops in this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 VICTORY DIVISION (ML=8/5), #1A TIGER TRAIL (ML=8/5), #3 STONE COLD CAT (ML=2/1),

VICTORY DIVISION - Hard to recommend any horse with dropping speed ratings of 66/63/42. 8/5 is just not enough of a price to take on most any animal that has run poorly in back to back efforts. TIGER TRAIL - Hard to bet on at 8/5 odds after the two most recent efforts. STONE COLD CAT - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint contests of late. Improbable to see him doing it this time around either. I cannot play this repeated non-winner. Gets the job completed now and then.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - JOES A ROCKIN - After a layoff, has had a few races and today he enters a sprint race. Should be back in form, so I expect this animal to perform well today.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #5 JOES A ROCKIN to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Allowance - 220y on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 92

QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 PLAIN VIEW 2/1

# 6 JJ JESS A SHADOW 8/5

# 4 MP FLY HIGH 9/2

I think PLAIN VIEW is a strong choice. With a sound 97 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Is a contender - given the 97 speed rating from his most recent race. He has been running solidly recently while recording strong Equibase Speed Figs. JJ JESS A SHADOW - Has performed well lately in short races, posting a nifty 83 avg Equibase Speed Fig. Hernandez ought to be able to get this colt to break out sharply for this event. MP FLY HIGH - Could beat this field given the 89 Equibase Speed Figure put up in his last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 72

FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 18 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 3 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 CANDOROSO 5/1

# 8 EL KID CASAS 10/1

# 5 CARTILLERO 9/5

CANDOROSO looks very strong to best this field. He has been running strongly lately while recording solid speed figures. Morales has him trained soundly to break speedily out of the starting gate. Ought to be considered based on the very good Equibase Speed Figure garnered in the last race. EL KID CASAS - Will most likely go to the front end and could never look back. CARTILLERO - Win percentage with this rider and conditioner combo - 36 percent - sound. With a solid 60 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 6:17pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $53,200 Class Rating: 80

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 DIXIE'S FLATTER (ML=15/1)
#1 STAR SCHOLAR (ML=4/1)
#7 UNDER SURVEILLANCE (ML=8/1)
#2 AGILE DANCER (ML=10/1)


DIXIE'S FLATTER - Got to appreciate a good work horse. This gelding's last prep was second fastest of the day for the distance. STAR SCHOLAR - This gelding is in good form, having run a good race on October 13th, finishing fourth. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Just missed hitting the board on Oct 13th at Woodbine. With decent morning odds in this event, he has my interest. He has the topmost earnings per race. Check out this one. UNDER SURVEILLANCE - The return on investment when Flores and Tharrenos team up is terrific. Trying to be a first time winner moving from a race on the turf to the main track. I think Tharrenos will have him fit for today's race. AGILE DANCER - Attard has this gelding spotted in the right race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 TREBUCHET (ML=5/2), #8 MOMENT OF PEACE (ML=7/2), #4 GRAN ARTIETUDE (ML=6/1),

TREBUCHET - Hard to put any money on this gelding on the win end. Likes to land in the money though. MOMENT OF PEACE - You figure that this animal is going to win just because he's always close. Just doesn't win regularly. GRAN ARTIETUDE - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance contests in order to wager on him. This racer just hasn't looked sharp of late.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #6 DIXIE'S FLATTER to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs
PURCHASE

11/03/22, CD, Race 4, 2.30 ET
11/03/22,CD,4,6F [Dirt] 1:07:03 CLAIMING. Purse $75,000 (plus up to $11,300 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races Since September 3 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since Then Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 (Races Where Entered For $40,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI
100.0000 1 Cupids Payday 5/1 Rocco. Jr. J Tomlinson Michael A. FELC 128 32.03 1.46/$1
098.6914 5 It Takes Heart 3/1 Gutierrez R Calhoun W. Bret S 128 32.03 1.46/$1
094.6833 6 Condensation 5/1 Machado L Cowans William D. 200 32.50 1.22/$1
094.6154 3 She'll Never Know 7/2 Morales E Amoss Thomas M. T 414 29.47 1.11/$1
093.5670 4 Miss Addie Lynn 8/1 Michel M Lukas D. Wayne 128 32.03 1.46/$1
093.1041 7 Happy Clouds 6/1 Saez L Ennis John J 128 32.03 1.46/$1
088.8035 2 High Fashion Lady 4/1 Hernandez. Jr. B J McPeek Kenneth G. W 128 32.03 1.46/$1
Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 27.47, ROI 0.72/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.3086
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Not Equal To Today -with-
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Race Purse Not Greater Than $75K

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1. NSA(The Legend) NBA – Warriors -9
2. Gameday Network NBA – Thunder +6.5
3. Sports Action 365 NBA – Warriors over 226.5
4. Vegas Line Crushers NBA – Thunder under 228.5
5. VegasSI.com NHL – Knights -135
6. Sam Casey NHL – Wild -1.5
7. Henry Brown Sports NHL – Islanders +100
8. Winning Big Sports NHL – Stars over 6
9. Lou Panelli NHL – Ducks +145
10. Platinum Info Club NBA – Thunder +6.5
11. William E. Stockton NBA – Warriors -9
12. Vincent Pioli NBA – Thunder under 228.5
13. Steve “Scoop” Kendall NBA – Warriors over 226.5
14. SCORE NHL – Panthers under 6.5
15. Tony Campone NHL – Stars -1.5
16. Chicago Sports Group NHL – Devils +140
17. Hollywood Sportsline NHL – Blackhawks +150
18. VIP Action NHL – Canadiens over 6
19. South Beach Sports NBA – Warriors -9
20. LV Sports Commission NBA – Thunder +6.5
21. NY Players Club NBA – Warriors over 226.5
22. Fred Callahan NBA – Thunder under 228.5
23. LV Private CEO Club NHL – Kraken +150
24. Michigan Sports NHL – Panthers over 6.5
25. National Consensus Report NHL – Red Wings +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Horse Racing Best Bets for Wednesday 11/3/22
numberFire Racing

According to numberFire Racing's projections, these are the best bets to make at FanDuel Racing today.
#6 Fashionably Fab – Woodbine, R3 (5:48 PM EST)

Fashionably Fab took a big step forward from debut when running out a very easy winner of a maiden optional claimer here last month and will be hard to beat on these terms. Souper Sinclair looks the one for the runner-up spot. Bet Now at FanDuel
#2 Beverly Park – Charles Town, R5 (8:53 PM EST)

Beverly Park very much knows where the winning post is and jumps off the page as the obvious winner. He’s only been beaten once from five starts at this track and can enhance his excellent strike-rate here. Tringale is chasing the hat-trick but may have to settle for second best. Bet Now at FanDuel
#3 Jackie A – Charles Town, R6 (9:21 PM EST)

Distorted Limits will be hard to beat on these terms and looks to have found a good opening. He won over this distance at Monmouth Park in August but found the extended 1m too much of a test last time. Quad Party is less up against it on this occasion and can fill the runner-up spot.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Golden St -8 1/2 over Orlando

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection: Carolina Hurricanes/Tampa Bay Lightning over 6 1/2