Sunday 11/13/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Zia Park - Race #9 - Post: 3:36pm - Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $39,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#6 MCMERCELUS (ML=7/2)
#3 D C ALLIED FORCES (ML=12/1)


MCMERCELUS - This mount should be rumbling down the lane. D C ALLIED FORCES - He must like the track here. Shipped in to win on October 15th and he looks tough once again. You'll be making money right and left by turning your bankroll onto this jock/handler combination.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BEAR CLAW (ML=5/2), #1 B R KIDD ROCK (ML=3/1), #7 SMOOTH WATERS (ML=4/1),

BEAR CLAW - I think this chalk horse needs this race under his belt to start getting back into shape. He showed not much at all in the last clash. B R KIDD ROCK - Speed kills. Plenty of speed in this race compromises this animal's chances. Not likely that the speed fig he recorded on Oct 24th will be good enough in this affair. SMOOTH WATERS - Don't believe this racer will do much running in today's race. That last speed fig was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 MCMERCELUS on the nose if you can get odds of 8/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
6	6	HELLO MR P	2/1	Harris, J Bradley - 19	434.22
1	1	LATE NIGHT DEALER	10/1	Voyer, Carol - 7	430.26
2	2	ALLY FLIGHT	8/1	Coulter, Scott - 16	410.23
4	4	BOMBAY BOBBY	6/1	Kelly, Colin - 15	407.09
5	5	PHILTHEBANK	3/1	Macdonald, Brett A - 16	406.25
3	3	THE TWIST	4/1	Henry, Travis J - 14	376.12

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rideau Carleton

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Post: 6:30 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 64 - Purse:$6200 - NW $12500.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 BOOMANDBUST 5/2
# 6 MVP L 8/1
# 5 AMANDUS 6/1

BOOMANDBUST will have you running to the cashier's window here. Have good vibrations this one might take in this race. Has the perfect running style to defeat this group of horses, according to the pace numbers. Clearly the class of the group with an average rating of 64. A nice selection. MVP L - Could provide us a top prize based on competitive recent speed figures - earning an avg of 72. A competitive class horse can't be forgotten. With an average class ranking of 78 all signs look good for this one. AMANDUS - The brain trust will always toss in a fine animal from the 5 position here at Rideau Carleton, definite exotic possibilities. Has the perfect running style to defeat this bunch, according to the pace markings.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Post: 2:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 75 - Purse:$7200 - CLAIMING $10,000 PA PREFERENCE

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 BNGS EXPRESS 8/5
# 6 ARCHANGEL THREE 6/1
# 8 CAFFEINE BUZZ 10/1

BNGS EXPRESS is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the group. Feel the need for speed, this horse has been turning in some outstanding TrackMaster speed figs averaging around 75. Been running with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 78). Had one of the most compelling TrackMaster Speed Ratings of the group in his last outing. I'd recommend using in your wagers. ARCHANGEL THREE - Could surprise us at a nice price. Don't leave out. CAFFEINE BUZZ - You have to like a horse that wins a lot, very attractive win figure.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Saratoga Harness

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 11
4	4	VALENTINE EXPRESS	5/2	Beckwith, Brett - 16	445.20
2	2	CATELLO TOO	4/1	Derue, Jordan - 17	430.52
1	1	IAMCUZIWANNAB	10/1	Davis, Bob - 15	424.55
6	6	PATRICK HANOVER	3/1	Dobson, Billy - 16	423.79
3	3	WINGED FOOT	9/2	Devaux, Jim - 18	417.71
5	5	CHERRY RED	6/1	Cross, Brian - 8	410.46
7	7	HILLOFA KNOCKOUT	12/1	Hanners, Luke - 14	379.53

[ConleyPicks]

Date: November 13th, 2022 Track: Del Mar
By Brad FreeBEST BET: Italiano (2nd race)

First Race1. Malibu Coast 2. Kid Azteca 3. Castleknock
Close call between MALIBU COAST and KID AZTECA in this turf mile for N1X 2yos. Lightly raced MALIBU COAST gets the noddropping from third in a G3 turf mile at Santa Anita. He raced evenly throughout, but the front-runners kept going while he maintained hisposition though the lane. The turf course at Del Mar, where he won his debut two back, is generally more conducive to his off-the-pacestyle. KID AZTECA maintained his solid recent form finishing second last out in a similar N1X. The top choice beat him in September,but 'AZTECA improved since. He has tactical speed and can finish. He is trained by Peter Miller, who also entered front-runnerCASTLEKNOCK. The latter finished second in a G3 two back, in front of MALIBU COAST, then third last out behind stablemate KIDAZTECA. Win or lose, CASTLEKNOCK looks like the one to catch.

Second Race 1. Italiano 2. Shady Empire 3. Joe Don Looney
ITALIANO should win this $16k claiming sprint despite the inside post, facing a field without much speed. ITALIANO can be forwardlyplaced; both starts at DMR in summer were fast: win and runner-up at higher class levels. The knock is a curious drop below the $25klevel at which he was claimed two back. Will side with the "best horse" and expect 7yo veteran ITALIANO to score his ninth victory.SHADY EMPIRE moves up slightly in class to open claiming after winning a N3L claiming sprint. His speed/pressing style gives him atactical edge; most in this field are late-runners. JOE DON LOONEY returns from a brief freshening adding blinkers and switching to topgate jockey Edwin Maldonado. 'LOONEY could show more speed first start back while adding blinkers. The 12-win veteran BLACKSTORM, stablemate of the top choice, will rally from the back.

Third Race1. Hawk of War 2. Ready Soul 3. Moody Jim
Another close call, this a $50k claiming turf route with HAWK OF WAR vs. comebacker READY SOUL. The solid recent campaign by'WAR includes four wins from his last six starts and third-by-a-neck last out against similar. If there is a knock on his last start, it is therunner-up returned to finish a disappointing fourth as the favorite for $40k claiming and the fifth-place finisher returned to finish adisappointing third as the favorite. Nonetheless, 'WAR gets the call shortening from nine furlongs to eight and a half. READY SOUL,graded stakes-placed twice in winter at Santa Anita, returns from a nine-month layoff and drops into a claiming race for the first time.Flavien Prat rode him four times previously: two wins, a second and a third. Close call between 'WAR and 'SOUL. MOODY JIM is a 4-for-14 pro reclaimed last out from a third-place finish by his previous trainer Jeff Mullins, who also entered COAST OF ROAN. The latterhas run races fast enough for this group.

Fourth Race1. Everlys Girl 2. Laurel Canyon 3. Shared Future
Other than a problematic pace rival in the outside post, EVERLYS GIRL is logical in this $40k claiming sprint for 3yo fillies. She ranwell on this track in summer, and drops from older state-bred allowance into an age-restricted claiming sprint. She has speed, but has runwell from slightly off the pace. She may need to employ that style here, because dropper LAUREL CANYON is quicker. First time in fora claim tag, blinkers on, third start back from a layoff, 'CANYON will take them as far as she can. If she weakens and drags the top choicedown with her, the race could unfold perfectly for late-runner SHARED FUTURE, who finished second on this track at this class levelduring summer. YOUTEYOURHONOR also will rally late.

Fifth Race1. Cuban Crisis 2. Real Fire 3. Socially Smart
A promising third-place comeback and favorable pace scenario in a field with lots of speed sets up CUBAN CRISIS for a maiden winsecond start back in a filly-mare turf sprint that is not that tough. 'CRISIS had been off nearly eight months when she rallied from midpackDate: November 13th, 2022 Track: Del Marto miss by a length; runner-up Phenom returned to crush by six lengths. The main challenge for 'CRISIS is shortening from six furlongs tofive, and working out a trip rallying from behind. REAL FIRE has been a moneyburner in her four-start career, and finished behind the topchoice last out. But she hit the board her first three starts, goes third off the layoff, and is reunited with Prat. She'll get a pressing trip in theclear, and being by Street Boss, turf should be her deal. One more chance? SOCIALLY SMART is speed, first start in more than a year;she'll have to cope with fellow speedsters DREAM A DREAM and TOPOLINA.

Sixth Race1. Gilmore 2. Navy Man 3. Massimo
First-time starter GILMORE has shown speed in morning works (viewed on XBTV.com) and looks tough to catch. By the excellent debutstallion Twirling Candy (18 percent wins debut 2yos), expectations are for a top effort first out for an amazingly productive trainer-jockeycombo. Since fall 2021, Bob Baffert and John Velazquez are an incredible 11-for-13 with first-time starters on dirt. NAVY MAN ran wellfinishing third in his debut after breaking from the rail and chasing a fast colt (Arabian Lion) who returned to finish second in a fastallowance. 'MAN moves to an outside post, and should improve with a race under his belt. MASSIMO is the second Baffert entrant, in themoney all three starts and removing blinkers for the first time. He should be running late. SULLY is a $700k yearling by Uncle Mo makinghis career debut for a stable that typically races maidens into shape rather than fire first time out.

Seventh Race1. Rvalentina 2. Classy 3. Witch Moon
In a wide-open N2L starter at a mile on turf, RVALENTINA gets the call based on her runner-up finish last out. She might have made thelead too soon, and got run over by School Dance, one of the favorites to win a N1X on Saturday (race 5). RVALENTINA should beforwardly placed in a race without much pace; she will get first run. The maiden CLASSY improved a ton second out, finishing third whilerunning her final quarter-mile in a decent 23.93 seconds compared to the top pick's :24.73 come-home. Maidens occasionally win this N2Lstarter condition, CLASSY is improving and gets Prat. WITCH MOON will rally from the back at long odds, whileWEEMISSGRAMMY won the maiden-50 race while defeating CLASSY by two and a half lengths. 'GRAMMY might be ranked too lowby this handicapper.

Eighth Race1. Fun to Dream 2. Big Novel 3. Taming the Tigress
FUN TO DREAM and BIG NOVEL are the principals in this small-field Cal-bred sprint stake. The call is 'DREAM, who did not have agreat trip last time in heavy traffic, yet powered home to win the N1X route at SA by more than four lengths. She proved in summer shelikes DMR when she won a stake for Cal-bred 3yo fillies by more than nine lengths; she has a current-racing edge over comebacker BIGNOVEL. The latter placed in five Cal-bred stakes, she is a two-time winner, and hit the board all eight starts. Her workout pattern for herfirst start since April looks solid. TAMING THE TIGRESS is probably a cut below the top pair on ability, but the allowance-caliber fillyis all racehorse, having won 6 of 16 including three at DMR.

Ninth Race1. La Peer 2. Window Shopping 3. Jennifer's d'Light
Runner-up by a half-length last out with a 23.50-second final quarter-mile, LA PEER gets the call in this turf mile for MSW 2yo fillies.She had to weave through traffic in the lane, and finished well. But this field is deep, and first-time starter WINDOW SHOPPING hastrained as if she is live. She worked repeatedly in company including a fast team drill Oct. 23 with older graded winner Tizamagician.'SHOPPING is by American Pharoah; her dam produced two runners who both won first out (dirt sprints). Always tough to win a routefirst out, but 'SHOPPING appears to be an above-average maiden. JENNIFER'S D'LIGHT missed by less than a length in her secondstart, she is racing into condition like maidens from this stable typically do. MOUNT MARY may have only been prepping last month withan okay third in a sprint; THE DANCE BETWEEN sprints like a filly who wants two turns. Seems like a wide-open race.