Saturday 11/26/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Sean Murphy

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Kansas State at 8 pm et on Saturday.


Kansas enters this matchup off consecutive 'over' results. In fact, the Jayhawks allowed a season-high 55 points in last week's rout at the hands of the Longhorns in Texas. Meanwhile, Kansas State is coming off an 'over' result of its own as it matched a season-high, scoring 48 points in a double-digit win over West Virginia last week. Note that last year's meeting between these two teams saw a closing total of 55.5 and ultimately finished with only 45 total points. I'm confident we'll see the Wildcats defense bottle up the Jayhawks offense, noting that we haven't seen Kansas score more than 20 points against Kansas State since way back in 2011. On the flip side, it's highly unlikely we see the Wildcats offense explode the way it did against a hapless Mountaineers defense last week. I'm comfortable calling for a lower-scoring game than most are expecting here. Take the under.

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AAA Sports

1* FREE PLAY Avalanche-140


Dallas is off a 5-4 OT loss at home just last night to the Jets, and I think it'll come in "gassed" here on the second game of the B2B scenario. Colorado's been off since a 4-3 home loss to Vancouver on Wednesday night and I think the more rested home side is well worth the price of admission in this spot. After this the Avs hit the road for a tough four-game road trip, so look for them to buckle down here at home on Saturday night; consider Colorado in this matchup!
AAA Sports

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Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Avalanche -130

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Kyle Hunter

3 Star Free Play Under* The Washington Huskies and Washington State Cougars will meet in the Apple Cup late on Saturday night. Washington State has been an absolute under machine. 9-2 to the under so far this year. We’ve talked about it before, but Washington State was expected to be this high flying passing attack with shootout scores. They have been anything but, and this defense is very solid.
Washington's defense does give up some big plays, but they have looked improved in recent weeks allowing 24 points or fewer in three of their last four games. Washington State hasn't consistently.
Washington's secondary should be helped by the Huskies pass rush. Washington State's offensive line is terrible, and the Huskies are +22 in sack margin this year.
Washington State has the secondary to at least slow down Michael Penix Jr. and company.
Take the under.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

Aqueduct - Race 1	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 1 &2, Pick 3 ($1) (1-3) Early Pick 5 (.50) (1-5)
Maiden Claiming $40,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 79 • Purse: $43,000 • Post: 11:50
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Trailer. CARIBBEAN BREEZE is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CARIBBEAN BREEZE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than it s own half-mile time in its last race. DENIECE OF DEGRACE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. BERNT AGAIN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" de signation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	CARIBBEAN BREEZE	5/2	4/1
7	DENIECE OF DEGRACE	6/1	5/1
3	BERNT AGAIN	4/1	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	AMANDA'S FOLLY	9	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	63.9	66.8	58.3
2	LUNA LOCA	1	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	57.2	51.9	40.4
6	CARIBBEAN BREEZE	7	5/2	Trailer	0	0	75.8	67.3	61.3
7	DENIECE OF DEGRACE	8	6/1	Trailer	0	0	70.2	65.4	58.9
1	STRIKING MELODY	4	10/1	Trailer	0	0	26.9	26.9	12.4
3	BERNT AGAIN	2	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	60.7	65.1	59.1
1A	OUR ROSIE DIAMONDS	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	51	47.0	47.0	38.5
9	DARKNSTORMY	10	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	46.5	46.5	35.0
4	BRITNEY IS FREE	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	29.4	29.4	16.9

Unknown Running Style: SILEX (10/1) [Jockey: Cancel Eric - Trainer: Martin Carlos

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate Fields - Race #3 - Post: 1:45pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#3 LIGHT UP (ML=9/5)


LIGHT UP - I like that latest effort on November 5th at Golden Gate Fields where she ran second. This filly's last figure is good enough to win here, I'll play her back again this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MARANDO PASS (ML=5/2), #5 FLIPLIT (ML=4/1), #2 ROSEBUD RYDE (ML=5/1),

MARANDO PASS - 5/2 is just too low of a price to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back outings. This filly notched a speed figure in her last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's race. FLIPLIT - Not likely that the fig she earned on November 5th will be good enough in this event. ROSEBUD RYDE - The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underlay.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 LIGHT UP on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

11/26/22, TAM, Race 9, 4.40 ET
11/26/22,TAM,9,1M [Turf] 1:33:01 CLAIMING. Purse $20,500 (includes up to $1,500 FOA - Florida Owners Awards). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Once At A Mile Or Over Since October 26 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 (Races Where Entered For $12,500 Or Less Not Considered) (Condition Eligibility). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile and Forty Yards.).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	4	Slime Queen	5/1	Morales P	Arnett Jon G.	JTS	201	21.39	1.33/$1
098.7309	7	Antalya	9/2	Camacho S	Granitz Anthony J.	C	201	21.39	1.33/$1
098.4529	3	Pugilist	3/1	Jimenez M	Delgado Jose H.	E	201	21.39	1.33/$1
098.0535	10	Lullaby Land	10/1	Rojas C E	Wilson Tony	F	201	23.88	1.18/$1
097.1732	9	Windy City Girl	10/1	Allen. Jr. R D	Bowersock Maria		201	21.39	1.33/$1
097.0476	1	Midnight Pirate	12/1	Walker E M	Quinones Jennifer A.		201	21.39	1.33/$1
096.9899	6	Daddy's Joy	4/1	Gallardo A A	Sweezey J. Kent		201	21.39	1.33/$1
093.8385	5	Centsless Drama	8/1	Rowland M	David Carlos A.	L	201	21.39	1.33/$1
093.3382	8	Classy of Course	15/1	Fuentes M	McGoey Monica	W	201	21.39	1.33/$1
091.6244	2	Bourbon Gal	20/1	Allen M	Allen Lisa		201	21.39	1.33/$1

Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 35.48, ROI 1.71/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.2691
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
Workouts Dirt Last 6 (M)

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fair Grounds - Race #2 - Post: 1:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 61

Rating:

#5 RONALDS GATSBY (ML=7/2)
#4 OLDER AND WISER (ML=7/2)


RONALDS GATSBY - Wilson has this gelding entered in the right race. OLDER AND WISER - Entered a $15,000 Maiden Claiming race at Louisiana Downs in the last race and raced on the soft turf finishing fifth. I'd expect a better race in this race. Has a good opportunity in this race to break maiden going over to the dirt in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DEMON HUNTER (ML=3/1), #7 THEOS FLEW (ML=6/1), #3 WILD T RANGER (ML=8/1),

DEMON HUNTER - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last couple of races. THEOS FLEW - Hard to wager on any horse to turn things around if there is no value to taking the risk. Somewhat easily forgotten speed rating in the last race at Louisiana Downs at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 RONALDS GATSBY is the play if we get odds of 8/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $50000 Class Rating: 78

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 BANK ON IT 5/1
# 1 TRICK QUESTION 9/2
# 4 INTERNET GIRL 20/1

My selection for this race is BANK ON IT. Could provide positive dividends based on strong recent speed figs with an average of 55. Looks quite good to be up on the lead at the first call. Always difficult to beat Faucheux and Loveberry working together, winning 31 percent of their races. TRICK QUESTION - Cohen will almost certainly be able to get this filly to break out sharply in this contest. Bloodlines are sharp and this one looks to be on the board.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 102

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 26 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 IAN GLASS 7/2
# 5 BOCA BOY 10/1
# 2 NEVER HAVE I EVER (IRE) 6/1

I like IAN GLASS here. His 93 average has this gelding with among the most respectable Equibase Speed Figures in this competition. Ran a sharp last race. The average class figure alone makes this entrant a contender. BOCA BOY - Has the appearance of a profitable wager. Should be given a chance based on the very strong speed fig recorded in the last race. NEVER HAVE I EVER (IRE) - His 90 average has this gelding with among the top Equibase Speed Figs in here. Could best this group based on the speed rating - 99 - of his last effort.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Zia Park

Zia Park - Race 8	$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / 1st Leg .50 Pick 3/ 2nd Leg Pick 4 3rd Leg Pick 5
Allowance • 400 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 93 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 3:09P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FLASHTOGLORY: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. BENEFICIAL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. VF MR FINE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post positio n next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
9	FLASHTOGLORY	2/1	7/2
8	BENEFICIAL	5/2	9/2
1	VF MR FINE	6/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	VF MR FINE	1	6/1	Fast	81	80	2.3	0.0	0.0
2	JUST EN KING	2	10/1	Average	75	75	5.7	0.0	0.0
3	MY SWEET JESS	3	15/1	Average	87	72	5.1	0.0	0.0
4	MILAGRO LADY	4	12/1	Fast	81	78	3.3	0.0	0.0
5	HOCKED UP	5	20/1	Slow	87	68	7.4	0.0	0.0
6	HS TRIGGER	6	12/1	Average	87	77	4.9	0.0	0.0
7	LIGHTNING JESS	7	20/1	Average	69	65	6.0	0.0	0.0
8	BENEFICIAL	8	5/2	Average	89	89	4.2	0.0	0.0
9	FLASHTOGLORY	9	2/1	Fast	94	93	3.3	0.0	0.0
10	FINE CORONA	10	8/1	Average	84	73	3.9	0.0	0.0
11	JUSTUS	11	15/1	Average	86	65	4.7	0.0	0.0
12	ARTILLERO	12	8/1	Average	76	76	5.5	0.0	0.0

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Freehold Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 7
2	2	HEAVENLY SOUND	7/5	Siegelman, Austin - 20	502.26
1	1	THREE WAYS N	5/1	Dauplaise, Jeff - 15	474.19
6	6	CAMPORA N	5/1	Ahle, Johnathan - 11	456.71
3	3	FIRE LIGHT	9/1	Foley, James - 6	444.22
4	4	HEART ON MY SLEEVE	5/1	Smith, Steve - 10	443.06
8	8	DRINKIN AGAIN	20/1	Miller, Tyler - 10	418.13
7	7	RANCOUSY	20/1	Ginsburg, Vincent - 13	410.84
5	5	BARNARD HANOVER	8/1	Beyer, Troy - 14	406.58

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Post: 9:36 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$14000 - FILLIES & MARES PROGRESSIVE CLAIMING SERIES CLAIMING $10,000 FINAL NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD HN 1 & HN 8 UNCOUPLED DUE TO BONAFIDE SEPARATE OWNERSHIP

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 NARCIAN JEWEL 7/5
# 2 ALL ABOUT AMY 3/1
# 4 WAKE N BAKE 9/2

The selection in this race is NARCIAN JEWEL. Sometimes you just have to go with an instinct, think about this one's chances. She has been competing competently and the speed ratings are among the most compelling in the group of horses. With a 80 average class figure, this interesting entrant has one of the most compelling class advantages in the group of animals. ALL ABOUT AMY - The consortium knows that speed is very important in harness racing. This standardbred will unlock our way to a nice score. Has to be given a look based on the very good speed rating earned in the most recent competition. WAKE N BAKE - Enters this outing with respectable TrackMaster class ratings as compared to the field of starters - could be worth a shot. Driver-trainer are no strangers to the winners circle and should have this mare breaking away from the field.

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Meadowlands

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Post: 8:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$428400 - THREE DIAMONDS - FINAL 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES NO COUPLED ENTRIES PER NJRC 6-LAST RECEIVE 1% OF PURSE ELIMINATION WINNER DREW 1-6 BELLISIMA HANOVER AND EARTHWINDFIRE RECEIVED BYES TO THE FINAL

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 BELLISIMA HANOVER 3/1
# 9 VIVIANS DREAM 12/1
# 3 STRONG POISON 7/2

Look no further than BELLISIMA HANOVER as the wager in this race. Had one of the best TrackMaster Speed Ratings of the field in her last race. A good idea to use in your wagers. Reason to like this filly as she has in the cart one of the top drivers in win percentage over the last 30 days. VIVIANS DREAM - Enters this gathering with very good TrackMaster class markings in relationship to the field of horses - take a good look. STRONG POISON - Talk about a dynamic duo, Gingras and Burke have some of the best driver-conditioner figures at the track. Gingras will be looking to win here, has been en fuego lately. Win rate the last 30 days is a sparkling 21.

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Century Mile

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 6
4	4	ERNESTO DELACRUZ	3/2	Gagne, Jean Francois - 11	464.33
6	6	KILL A DRAGON	12/1	Campbell, J Brandon - 27	438.39
1	1	JOE DIMAGIO	5/2	Hennessy, Michael R - 6	436.68
3	3	VEGAS GAMBLER	6/1	Giesbrecht, Philip - 27	433.68
5	5	LETS TIE ONE ON	4/1	Hoerdt, Kelly O - 16	431.28
7	7	MATTS A MYSTICIAN	10/1	Sobey, Nathan K - 29	416.99
2	2	ANGELO	8/1	Kelly, David A - 16	372.28