Saturday 12/3/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • ConleyPicks
    Senior Member
    • Aug 2020
    • 16966

    #61
    TOKYO BRANDON

    Play: Fresno State +4.5 (-110)

    I actually have Fresno winning this by 6 but, math does not take into account how huge home field is for Boise, especially in a rivalry Championship game. I think it will be close so take the 4.5.

    Comment

    • ConleyPicks
      Senior Member
      • Aug 2020
      • 16966

      #62
      DREW MARTIN

      Event: (317) LSU at (318) Georgia

      Play: Total Over 51.0 (-110)


      The LSU defense just gave up over 400 yards and 38 points to the dumpster fire that is the Texas A&M offense. Now this Tiger defense is facing a top 10 ranked offense in the country. Most people think of defense when they think about Georgia, however the Bulldog offense is averaging over 43 points per game vs SEC West competition. Kirby Smart's team is also averaging over 485 yards per game this season. LSU is likely in for a long day however you slice it, although they might have a punchers chance with their mobility at the QB position. (Georgia did let Anthony Richardson, the running threat for Florida have a decent day, giving up 20 points to the Gators a month ago.) This one finishes in the 41-20 range. bet over- Let's cash!

      Comment

      • ConleyPicks
        Senior Member
        • Aug 2020
        • 16966

        #63
        BEN BURNS

        Play: Georgia -17.5 (-110)

        While the number may seem a little big, Georgia is on another level. The 12-0 Bulldogs have 11 double-digit wins to their credit. They beat the Volunteers by “only” 14. Every other home or neutral site game has resulted in a victory of at least 17. Remember, the 49-3 destruction of Oregon to begin the season? That was here in Atlanta. LSU, which lost by 27 earlier against Tennessee, just lost by 15, to Texas A@M. All signs points to a blowout.

        Comment

        • ConleyPicks
          Senior Member
          • Aug 2020
          • 16966

          #64
          MARCO D'ANGELO

          Play: Georgia -17.5 (-110)


          At first glance seeing LSU +18 looks inviting but I just don’t know if they can score enough points to stay in this game. Georgia held eight opponents to 14 points or less this season and nobody topped 22 points all year. In George’s last two games they failed to cover big numbers against Kentucky and Georgia Tech it almost looks like Georgia is bored. Having won the national title last year it’s almost like the regular season is boring but now it’s time to shift gears. This LSU defense is going to have its hands full stopping Georgia. LSU gave up 40 to Tennessee 35 to Florida 31 to Alabama and 38 last week to Texas A&M. For LSU to stay in this game they need to run the ball effectively but against this Georgia defense that’s going to be a big problem as Georgia is #1 in PPG (11.3), #1 in rushing yards per game (79.6) and #4 in rushing yards per attempt at 3.0. When we get to the 4th Q and Georgia is trying to milk the clock by running the football it will be the #9 rushing offense at 5.6 YPP facing off against the #62 defense at stopping the run. Meaning Georgia can add to their lead while just running out the clock.



          GEORGIA 38-17

          Comment

          • ConleyPicks
            Senior Member
            • Aug 2020
            • 16966

            #65
            BEN BURNS

            Play: Stony Brook +16.0 (-110)

            The Bulldogs are a good team and they're off to a strong start. However, that strong start is now causing them to have some very big spreads to cover. In today's case, I believe the number is getting too big and that we're getting excellent value playing against Yale. The Bulldogs may be patting themselves on the back a bit and it should be easy for them to look ahead to bigger games. Stony Brook, which has won both its home games, will be ready to play. Grab the points.

            Comment

            • ConleyPicks
              Senior Member
              • Aug 2020
              • 16966

              #66
              THE GOLD SHEET

              Event: (697) Boise State at (698) Texas A&M

              Play: Total Under 130.5 (-110)


              Texas A&M gives its Metroplex fan base a treat on Saturday with this special engagement at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth. Buzz Williams has his Aggie hoopsters on the ascent with three impressive wins in a row after a couple of puzzling poor efforts in the first two rounds of the Myrtle Beach Tourney two weeks ago. Since then, however, Buzz has seen his defense turn the screws and allow just 60 points per game in the three-win stretch, while the offense has displayed more bite after a couple of big efforts from Tyrece Radford (scored 31 in the win over DePaul Nov. 25) and F Henry Coleman III (scored 23 in last Wednesday’s romp past SMU). Boise State is also on the upswing with four wins in a row and likely got a look at A&M (and vice versa) in the Myrtle Beach Tourney, where these two avoided one another. But with a lot of new faces on the roster, Leon Rice has been playing at a slower pace, and had to chug its way past heavy underdog CS Northridge in the midweek midweek when G Marcus Shaver , Jr (19 points) was again forced to carry the Broncos offense. Those shortcomings on attack are a big reason why the under is 6-1 in Boise's games this season. Toss in the unfamiliar surroundings of a neutral site arena, and we believe we're heading toward a low-scoring affair on Saturday. Play the under.

              Comment

              • ConleyPicks
                Senior Member
                • Aug 2020
                • 16966

                #67
                KEVIN DOLAN

                Play: Vegas Golden Knights -145

                Detroit's defensive data has been solid this season, but their offensive numbers have been absolutely dwarfed by Vegas.

                Take the Golden Knights to get the outright win on the road on Saturday against the Red Wings.

                Comment

                • ConleyPicks
                  Senior Member
                  • Aug 2020
                  • 16966

                  #68
                  KEVIN DOLAN

                  Play: North Carolina +7.5 (-110)

                  Our numbers make Clemson only around a 2-point favorite in this one so we're happy to side with North Carolina here on Saturday.

                  Dabo Swinney is sticking with D.J. Uiagalelei ahead of this clash despite the QB going just 8-of-29 for 99 yards last week against the South Carolina Gamecocks, throwing an INT also in that game, and with him being low on confidence ahead of this one, that will likely suit the Tar Heels in Charlotte this weekend.

                  Regardless, this line is just too high in our opinion and we're happy to take North Carolina at over a TD to get the cover this weekend against Clemson.

                  Comment

                  • ConleyPicks
                    Senior Member
                    • Aug 2020
                    • 16966

                    #69
                    KYLE ANTHONY

                    Event: (24705) Tai Tuivasa at (24706) Sergei Pavlovich Sport/League: MMA

                    Play: Sergei Pavlovich via KNOCKOUT -120

                    Comment

                    • ConleyPicks
                      Senior Member
                      • Aug 2020
                      • 16966

                      #70
                      F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Grounds

                      Fair Grounds - Race 7
                      Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 7-9) / Daily Double
                      Maiden Special • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 2 CR: 74 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 4:15P
                      FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $50,000 IN THEIR LAST 3 STARTS).
                      Contenders
                      Race Analysis
                      P#
                      Horse
                      Morn
                      Line
                      Accept
                      Odds

                      Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GEM COLLECTION is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GEM COLLECTION: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NATURAL RED: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
                      9
                      GEM COLLECTION
                      10/1
                      2/1
                      8
                      NATURAL RED
                      5/1
                      5/1

                      P#
                      Horse (In Running Style Order)
                      Post
                      Morn
                      Line
                      Running Style
                      Good
                      Class
                      Good
                      Speed
                      Early Figure
                      Finish Figure
                      Platinum
                      Figure
                      9
                      GEM COLLECTION
                      9
                      10/1
                      Alternator/Front-runner
                      78
                      60
                      83.4
                      56.9
                      48.4
                      1
                      BAYOU CHROME
                      1
                      12/1
                      Alternator/Stalker
                      0
                      0
                      62.5
                      57.2
                      45.7
                      2
                      Z Z'S PRINCE
                      2
                      10/1
                      Alternator/Stalker
                      0
                      0
                      56.9
                      56.9
                      47.9
                      10
                      BLANTON
                      10
                      15/1
                      Alternator/Stalker
                      0
                      0
                      47.4
                      47.4
                      37.4
                      6
                      GORDY'S LABEL
                      6
                      9/2
                      Trailer
                      0
                      0
                      62.6
                      62.6
                      59.1
                      8
                      NATURAL RED
                      8
                      5/1
                      Trailer
                      76
                      57
                      59.6
                      59.6
                      50.6
                      7
                      TAPIT SHOES
                      7
                      7/2
                      Trailer
                      0
                      0
                      44.6
                      55.0
                      44.5
                      11
                      FIGHT'N READY
                      11
                      12/1
                      Alternator/Trailer
                      0
                      0
                      46.5
                      40.8
                      27.8
                      3
                      MORE THAN FIVE
                      3
                      8/1
                      Alternator/Trailer
                      0
                      0
                      37.9
                      37.9
                      25.9
                      Unknown Running Style: DUAL MONARCHY (10/1) [Jockey: Parker Deshawn L - Trainer: Sharp Joe], ICE TIME (10/1) [Jockey: Loveberry Jareth - Trainer: Sharp Joe].

                      Comment

                      • ConleyPicks
                        Senior Member
                        • Aug 2020
                        • 16966

                        #71
                        F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lone Star Park

                        Lone Star Park - Race 9
                        WPS / Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $.50 Pick 3 (Races 9-10-11)
                        Stakes • 870 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 76 • Purse: $35,000 • Post: 9:49P
                        QUARTER HORSE 870Y, BATTLE OF THE BREEDS 870 CLAIMING S. - (PLUS UP TO $15,000 ATB) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND OLDER REGISTERED WITH THE JOCKEY CLUB, AQHA, APHA OR APHC WHICH HAVE QUALIFIED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT: THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. TRIALS TO RUN SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 12. FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT THE TEXAS PAINT HORSE BREEDERS ASSOCIATION @ (817) 781-5980.
                        Contenders
                        Race Analysis
                        P#
                        Horse
                        Morn
                        Line
                        Accept
                        Odds

                        Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * EL BEE DEE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. GONE PARADISE (T): Horse's win percentage at today's dis tance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. COLD SNACK THIRTY (T): Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SLP MIGHTY HIGH: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. DETECTIVE BERNARDO (T): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
                        1
                        EL BEE DEE
                        15/1
                        5/1
                        4
                        GONE PARADISE (T)
                        9/2
                        6/1
                        2
                        COLD SNACK THIRTY (T)
                        3/1
                        7/1
                        6
                        SLP MIGHTY HIGH
                        4/1
                        8/1
                        7
                        DETECTIVE BERNARDO (T)
                        7/2
                        8/1

                        P#
                        Horse (In Running Style Order)
                        Post
                        Morn
                        Line
                        Running Style
                        Good
                        Class
                        Good
                        Speed
                        Early Figure
                        Finish Figure
                        Platinum
                        Figure
                        1
                        EL BEE DEE
                        1
                        15/1
                        Fast
                        85
                        76
                        3.5
                        0.0
                        0.0
                        2
                        COLD SNACK THIRTY (T)
                        2
                        3/1
                        Slow
                        77
                        78
                        8.9
                        0.0
                        0.0
                        3
                        BETA CAPO SONG (T)
                        3
                        6/1
                        Average
                        76
                        69
                        3.8
                        0.0
                        0.0
                        4
                        GONE PARADISE (T)
                        4
                        9/2
                        Fast
                        78
                        73
                        1.2
                        0.0
                        0.0
                        5
                        CJS ROCKHARD N READY
                        5
                        8/1
                        Average
                        80
                        65
                        3.8
                        0.0
                        0.0
                        6
                        SLP MIGHTY HIGH
                        6
                        4/1
                        Fast
                        77
                        70
                        2.8
                        0.0
                        0.0
                        7
                        DETECTIVE BERNARDO (T)
                        7
                        7/2
                        Average
                        69
                        70
                        4.4
                        0.0
                        0.0
                        8
                        JB SPEEDY GONZALES
                        8
                        20/1
                        Average
                        80
                        66
                        5.5
                        0.0
                        0.0

                        Comment

                        • ConleyPicks
                          Senior Member
                          • Aug 2020
                          • 16966

                          #72
                          Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs


                          12/03/22, TAM, Race 10, 5.10 ET
                          12/03/22,TAM,10,1M [Turf] 1:33:01 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $27,000 (includes up to $2,000 FOA - Florida Owners Awards). FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 119 lbs. (Preference Will Be Given To Horses Which Have Not Started For Less Than $25,000. The Same Preference Will Be Given To Horses Which Have Started For Less Than $25,000 And Since Then Have Finished 2nd Or 3rd For $25,000 Or More.)For Two Year Olds under International Medication Protocol. Horses entered to compete shall not be eligible to receive furosemide less than twenty-four (24) hours prior to post time for the race. (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile and Forty Yards.).
                          . . . .
                          Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
                          After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
                          100.0000 9 A Western Yarn(b-) 6/1 Centeno D Delacour Arnaud SFEL 77 38.96 1.54/$1
                          097.5511 2 Now and Later(b+) 8/1 Morales P McGaughey III Claude R JW 25 28.00 2.08/$1
                          096.9268 10 (F)Tuddenham Mill (IRE) 4/1 Diaz. Jr. H R Delacour Arnaud 33 24.24 1.82/$1
                          096.7868 8 Wild Guess 9/2 Camacho S Clement Christophe 25 28.00 2.08/$1
                          095.8114 11 Oh Chic 9/2 Suarez A Motion H. Graham 25 28.00 2.08/$1
                          095.8114 1 Slick Evans 20/1 Suarez A Motion H. Graham 33 24.24 1.82/$1
                          095.5893 3 Classic Creation 3/1 Gallardo A A Terranova. II John P. 25 28.00 2.08/$1
                          095.0050 5 E Minor 20/1 Burgos A Hamm Timothy E. 25 28.00 2.08/$1
                          094.0438 7 Pike Place 12/1 Castanon J L Harty Eoin G. C 33 24.24 1.82/$1
                          093.2286 4 Summer Bee 5/1 Rowland M Dini Michael 25 28.00 2.08/$1
                          091.6253 6 Duke of Gloucester(b+) 15/1 Sanchez L Williams Abdul 25 28.00 2.08/$1
                          Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 35.48, ROI 1.71/$1
                          Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.4489
                          [Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
                          [All Turf] Best Speed

                          Comment

                          • ConleyPicks
                            Senior Member
                            • Aug 2020
                            • 16966

                            #73
                            Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



                            Turfway Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 86

                            Rating:

                            #4 CONUNDRUM QUEEN (ML=5/2)


                            CONUNDRUM QUEEN - I like when a race sets up this way. This filly has the lone pace to demolish this field. I like the case that this filly's last speed rating, 94, is tops in this bunch.

                            Vulnerable Contenders: #1 COMPLETE (ML=3/1), #9 KANFU (ML=7/2), #6 LETSGOANDGETTHEDO (ML=5/1),

                            COMPLETE - Speed ratings of 75/64/59 are headed in the wrong direction. KANFU - Looked like she was in good form on November 11th. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. LETSGOANDGETTHEDO - A bit of a lackluster try when this filly finished sixth. Registered a mediocre speed figure in the last race in a $12,500 Optional Claiming race on September 18th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig.

                            GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CONUNDRUM QUEEN - This filly takes a big tumble in the class fig department from a rating of 93 down to 86. Strong contender.




                            STRAIGHT WAGERS: #4 CONUNDRUM QUEEN is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
                            EXACTA WAGERS: 4 with [6,9]

                            TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                            Pass
                            SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None

                            Comment

                            • ConleyPicks
                              Senior Member
                              • Aug 2020
                              • 16966

                              #74
                              Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

                              Always check program numbers.
                              Odds shown are morning line odds.




                              Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $58000 Class Rating: 102

                              FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE SIRED OR STATE BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000-$32,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 3 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, IF FOR $32,000,

                              RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                              # 9 TREASURE TRADITION 9/2
                              # 10 JOHN THE BEAR 4/1
                              # 7 BACKNTHEWOODS 10/1
                              TREASURE TRADITION looks very good to best this field. The Equibase Speed Fig of 102 from his last contest looks formidable in here. With a formidable 95 average speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition. Win percentage with this jockey and trainer combo - 21 percent - strong. JOHN THE BEAR - Recently Gonzalez has provided risk takers with a formidable winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. BACKNTHEWOODS - Has decent early lick and will almost certainly fare admirably versus this group of horses. The twosome of Araujo/Corrales has one of the top return on investment percentages in this group.

                              Comment

                              • ConleyPicks
                                Senior Member
                                • Aug 2020
                                • 16966

                                #75
                                Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



                                Remington Park - Race #6 - Post: 9:27pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,170 Class Rating: 75

                                Rating:

                                #12 GREAT FACES (ML=8/1)
                                #5 WHIP (ML=10/1)


                                GREAT FACES - This should be an easier task than what he was asked last time out against 'open' company. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. WHIP - I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a come back. I like when a horse has dropped in class at least five class points like this one did last time out and then runs against a similar field right back. Hale must've found the right class level.

                                Vulnerable Contenders: #7 TWENTYONE N CHANGE (ML=3/1), #10 LOVE MY RIDE (ML=4/1), #8 ULTRA SPECIAL (ML=5/1),

                                TWENTYONE N CHANGE - The favorite is suspect here with the lack of drills. He probably cannot repeat that last stretch run effort and win against this field. LOVE MY RIDE - Trying to beat this entrant this time at the price of 4/1. ULTRA SPECIAL - The lack of drills has to make one concerned despite the strong performance in the last event.

                                GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - WHIP - Despite finishing fourth last time around the track, wasn't too far from the winner. Fits with this bunch.




                                STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #12 GREAT FACES to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds
                                EXACTA WAGERS: Box [5,12]

                                TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                                Skip
                                SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip

                                Comment

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