Monday 12/5/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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TONY FINN

Play: Memphis Grizzlies 0.0 (-115)

(541) Miami Heat at (542) Memphis Grizzlies pick, 224.5
Play is on the Memphis Griz at a pick

Miami’s injury report doesn't have a listed author or the signature of personnel from the Heat front office, however, unless anyone other than Patriots boss Bill Belichick has signed the injury list consider it Bill's pseudonym. Jimmy Butler returned from a seven-game absence on Friday in Boston and performed as if he was never injured in a Heat victory. However, Butler is back on Miami's laundry list of wounded with a knee strain and has a questionable designation for tonight's contest against the Grizzlies.

The Heat have seven players with Game Time Decision designations. Included in the lucky 7 is T. Herro, Highsmith, Robinson, Strus, Dedmon, Vincent, and as mentioned Bulter. Victor Oladipo and Omer Yurtseven have been declared inactive, Out, rather. The Grizzlies are playing the second leg of a back-to-back meaning the recently returned from the IL, e.g. Jaren Jackson Jr. likely has a minutes restriction. Bane and Green are listed as Out and Steven Adams is questionable with a hip pointer.

The current spread in this Monday night matchup has moved from Memphis as a 1.5-point home favorite to a pick. The line will not get better for Morant and company if Butler or Herro are inactive. An obvious line move to the reaction of the Heat taking down the Celtics in the Garden this past weekend. If Butler is held out to his knee ailment and Herro, Robinson and Strus are not able to dress and contribute vs Griz the line will move closer to the Griz minus-3 or more if Miami's first five is not whole. The pick to click is a play on the Memphis Grizzlies on their Memphis home court.

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THE GOLD SHEET

Event: (477) New Orleans Saints at (478) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Play: Total Under 41.0 (-110)

This Saints' offense is making one mistake after another in recent weeks. A couple of fumbles (one of those at the 1-yard line!) by usually sure-handed Alvin Kamara and a missed field goal by Will Lutz, kept New Orleans off of the scoreboard vs. the 49ers in Santa Clara last week and suggested that Andy Dalton’s recent 3 TD effort vs. the Rams might have simply been a one-off. Remember, Dalton was about to be benched for Jameis Winston a couple of weeks ago, and with a last chance to get back into the who-wants-it NFC South race, Dennis Allen might be having similar thoughts this week (except that it was Winston in the cockpit for the September 18 matchup at the dome against his old team when he tossed three picks in a 20-10 New Orleans loss). More of Taysom Hill, perhaps? The Saints seem simply too hard to trust at the moment with their wheezing offense. The under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these squads. The under is 9-2 in Tampa Bay's games this season. Both teams may struggle to find the end zone on Monday night.

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ANDY LANG

Play: Tom Brady UNDER 36.5 longest completion

Brady has not been in sync with his receivers on the long ball, and in particular Mike Evans. He's only gone over his longest completion one time in the last six games, and it looks like Fournette is on track to play tonight which should help the running game against a Saints team that has been really bad against the run giving up 153 yards a game on the ground the last three. Brady has been completing shorter passes, and if Mike Evans isn't catching long passes they really don't have a deep threat. I look for Brady to complete short and intermediate passes tonight and to use the running game to eat up the Saints. I'll take the under here.

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RALPH MICHAELS

Play: Golden State Warriors -11.0 (-110)

#546 Golden St -11 Indiana

The Golden St Warriors are 9-3 ATS at Home this season including 4-0 ATS the L2W.

The Pacers are 1-4 ATS Away the L2W.

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HAKEEM PROFIT

Play: 1H Golden State Warriors -6.5 (-115)

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BRYAN LEONARD

Play: Montreal Canadiens +170

47 Montreal at Vancouver

PLAY MONTREAL

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7700 Class Rating: 60

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 BRUCE ON THE LOOSE 1/1
# 1 MISTER RANSOM 9/2
# 7 TURTLENECK TED 3/1

I've got to go with BRUCE ON THE LOOSE. Should come out solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved speedily to the lead recently. With a quite good 54 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this affair. He has garnered competitive numbers under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this field. MISTER RANSOM - Ought to come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved swiftly to the front end recently. Weymes is very serious with this one, wheeling him back in next to no time. TURTLENECK TED - Brown is serious with this one, wheeling him back almost immediately. His earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone makes you take a look at him.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

Parx Racing - Race 10	Daily Double / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Stakes • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 90 • Purse: $75,000 • Post: 3:58P
FUTURE STARS S. - FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $50 EACH WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION. A SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION FEE OF $300 MAY BE MADE AT ANYTIME PRIOR TO THE CLOSING OF ENTRIES. $50 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX, $50 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $75,000 GUARANTEED TO BE DIVIDED*: 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH AND 4% TO FIFTH.*ALL STARTERS, EXCLUDING STARTERS FINISHING FIRST THROUGH FIFTH, SHALL BE PAID $1,000 EACH AND THE REMAINING PURSE MONIES WILL THEN BE DIVIDED AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. WEIGHT: 122 LBS., WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES TO CARRY AN ADDITIONAL 2 LBS., NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER ALLOWED 2 LBS.; MAIDENS ALLOWED 5 LBS. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THE ENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. IF THE RACE SHOULD OVERFILL, HIGHEST LIFETIME EARNINGS WILL HAVE PREFERENCE. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * HOWGREATISNATE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. EVEY'S CANDY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DAYDREAMING BOY: Horse's win percentage at today's dist ance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. V MART: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest av erage Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6	HOWGREATISNATE	2/1	7/2
5	EVEY'S CANDY	9/2	6/1
7	DAYDREAMING BOY	6/1	8/1
2	V MART	5/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	BELT PARKWAY	4	8/1	Front-runner	77	62	102.6	56.6	46.1
1	TAP IN FORMATION	1	12/1	Front-runner	74	74	99.3	59.4	51.4
7	DAYDREAMING BOY	7	6/1	Front-runner	74	81	94.7	73.5	68.0
2	V MART	2	5/2	Front-runner	81	89	83.1	53.8	46.3
5	EVEY'S CANDY	5	9/2	Trailer	89	87	49.4	71.0	65.0
6	HOWGREATISNATE	6	2/1	Trailer	86	87	45.8	79.6	76.1

Unknown Running Style: SILVER SLUGGER (20/1) [Jockey: Gonzalez Jr Franklin - Trainer: Avila Juan Carlos].

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $18500 Class Rating: 70

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2022. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 MINDOFMYOWN 1/1
# 3 THE TIME'S RIGHT 15/1
# 4 TICO TIME 12/1

MINDOFMYOWN looks like the wager in here. This horse has been constatntly running well lately. At the top in earnings per start at the distance/surface in this field of horses. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run recently. THE TIME'S RIGHT - Could best this field based on the speed rating - 62 - of her last race. Has to be given a shot against this group displaying very good figures recently and an average speed figure of 55 under similar conditions. TICO TIME - Has longshot possibilities and could prove victorious at big odds.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 1	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Rolling Double 50 cent Rolling Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / 50 cent Pick 5 (Races 1-5) 50% Carryover
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $11,100 • Post: 12:45
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE DECEMBER 5. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SUNDRENCHED is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SUNDRENCHED: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. FLECK: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. PUBLICIST: Horse ra nks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GALILEO'S AFFAIR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. RIVA BELLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2	SUNDRENCHED	8/1	5/1
7	FLECK	6/1	5/1
4	PUBLICIST	5/2	8/1
1	GALILEO'S AFFAIR	5/1	9/1
6	RIVA BELLE	4/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SUNDRENCHED	2	8/1	Front-runner	78	53	61.6	47.6	35.1
4	PUBLICIST	4	5/2	Stalker	72	57	56.8	48.0	42.5
5	UNTAPPED ENERGY	5	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	53	48.6	56.4	49.9
6	RIVA BELLE	6	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	59	45.2	54.4	42.4
7	FLECK	7	6/1	Trailer	72	61	52.2	68.8	64.8
1	GALILEO'S AFFAIR	1	5/1	Trailer	69	63	38.8	51.8	43.8
3	ACT LIKE A LADY	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	54	47.8	45.0	38.0

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #6 - Post: 2:55pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,400 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#5 EPIC DRAMA (ML=6/1)
#1 ORCADIAN STORM (ML=3/1)
#2 MO GEE (ML=5/1)


EPIC DRAMA - Valdes comes to get aboard after getting to know the gelding in the last race. Ran a lackluster race at Turf Paradise last time out. Racing on a fast track puts this gelding at the top of my contenders list. ORCADIAN STORM - When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after his last outing, it generally means he's fit. He got a decent speed fig the last time he tried this distance. Recent Equibase speed figures show dominant pattern of improvement. That 78 fig this gelding earned in his last clash tells me he's a main player this time. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. MO GEE - Morales and Matt perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +91 return on investment for a jock and handler. Looking like a possible overlay in this event at M/L odds of 5/1. Finished fourth in last race at Turf Paradise but was close at the end. This gelding is number one in earnings per start. Take a long look at this horse in the post parade.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 TAINO HOUSE (ML=4/1), #10 DIAMOND WILLOW (ML=6/1), #6 BAPTISM (ML=8/1),

TAINO HOUSE - This gelding garnered a fig in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event. DIAMOND WILLOW - Ran well to finish first on November 16th, but hasn't had even a work since then. BAPTISM - He's almost certainly going to get baked on the top end.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ORCADIAN STORM - I'm making a bet on this one today. An easier spot is going to make a big difference. Will be tough today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #5 EPIC DRAMA to win if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,2,5] with [1,2,5] with [1,2,5,10,11] with [1,2,5,10,11] Total Cost: $36

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #7 - Post: 3:33pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,300 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#2 SHE MAKES ME TIZZY (ML=4/1)
#1 MOANA'S TALE (ML=3/1)


SHE MAKES ME TIZZY - Not much pace in this race other than this horse. This filly should be in top form, this far into her form cycle. MOANA'S TALE - I like the fact that this mare's last speed fig, 74, is tops in this field. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. This mare is number one in (EPS) earnings per start. Check out this horse in the saddling ring. Recent Equibase speed figures show powerful pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 DANCE ON OVER (ML=5/2), #4 PRINCESS MORO (ML=5/1), #7 GRAN MAMIBELLA (ML=6/1),

DANCE ON OVER - The finish position of fourth in the last affair shows me that this horse may be losing physical conditioning. When examining today's Equibase class figure, she will have to register a much better speed rating than last time around the track to battle in this dirt sprint. PRINCESS MORO - A strong animal that's been running well, but she's been off the track in the mornings lately. GRAN MAMIBELLA - A bit of a less than stellar try when this filly finished fifth.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 SHE MAKES ME TIZZY to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dover Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Post: 6:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 79 - Purse:$9500 - CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER BALLY`S DOVER DRIVER CHOICES: VICTOR KIRBY 1 OVER 9 COREY CALLAHAN 7 OVER 5 & 8

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 IDEAL FLIP 5/2
# 5 LETSMAKEAWISH 10/1
# 1 MOXLEY 9/2

IDEAL FLIP will have you running to the cashier's window this time. Many race players know speed is is key. This interesting entrant has credentials with a 81 average number. This gelding has been competing versus some of the most competitive company in this grouping of late. Running admirably, earned a bang-up speed rating in his most recent race (82). LETSMAKEAWISH - This nice horse could get the win here beginning from the Dover Downs 5 hole. MOXLEY - This interesting entrant has shown us ability in its prior races, just look at the 81 average class figure. Should play well today.

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine Mohawk Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Post: 9:55 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$18000 - CLAIMING HANDICAP $22,000 TO $30,000. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE & SEX. ENTER IN MULTIPLES OF $1,000.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 6 QUAN BLUE CHIP 3/1
# 5 A BOY NAMED SUUZZ 5/2
# 7 JULERICA 5/1

If you want a really good play today, feast your eyes on QUAN BLUE CHIP. Could surprise us at a nice price. Don't leave out. A really good class horse shouldn't be be passed over. With an avg class statistic of 83 all signs look very good for this one. Should be considered in this race if only for the nice TrackMaster SR recorded in the last race. A BOY NAMED SUUZZ - His 83 average has this gelding among the most compelling speed figures today. Could clearly take this group of animals given the 89 speed rating achieved in his last race. JULERICA - The trainer/horse combination percentages point out that this pair are solid in the money finishers when working with one another. We're not going to pass on this gelding given one of the most compelling driver-trainer percentages around.

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Monticello Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
2	2	HEADS	5/2	Merton, Michael - 20	396.60
5	5	RAINBOW RISING	9/2	Bourgault, Frederick - 13	387.48
1	1	THINKING OF A CARD	3/1	Ricco, Joseph Jr - 40	378.19
3	3	TRULY	7/2	Taggart, Jim Jr - 17	370.96
4	4	IN THIS TOGETHER	6/1	Chindano, Joseph Jr - 17	355.73
6	6	CAROLINE JAMES	4/1	Dibenedetto, Kyle - 9	324.86