Sunday 12/11/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Mike Lundin

Mike Lundin's Eagles vs Giants Free Pick December 11, 2022


The Eagles are coming off a couple of impressive wins against Green Bay and Tennessee, but I think they're in for a tough game here against NFC East rivals New York Giants. The Eagles are Eagles are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
FREE PICK ON NEW YORK GIANTS.

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Jesse Schule

This is a free pick on CLE+6.
The Bengals come into this game as winners of four straight and six of seven overall. Joe Burrow is being mentioned as an MVP candidate, and all is well in Cincinnati. Such success often sets up a let down, especially when facing a division underdog like Cleveland that has actually won five straight, and eight of the last nine head to head meetings. This looks like a let down spot for the home team, and I'll take the points with the underdog gunning for a third straight win.
GL,
Jesse Schule

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Freddy Wills

1.1% Free play
Eagles/Giants Under 45

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Marc Lawrence

Play - Minnesota Vikings+2 (Game 105).

Edges - Vikings: QB Kirk Cousins 11-7 ATS as a division dog, including 4-0 ATS when coming off consecutive wins ... Lions: 1-9 SU last ten games in this series … With that, we recommend a 1* play on Minnesota. Thank you and good luck as always.

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Matt Fargo

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our Sunday Free Play. Baltimore is coming off a closer than expected win over Denver last week as it lost quarterback Lamar Jackson early in the game with Tyler Huntley taking over and while he was not great with no touchdowns and an interception, he still went 27-32 and rushed for 41 yards. He now has a full week of practice with the starters heading into this one which is a big divisional game as the Ravens are tied atop the AFC North with Cincinnati at 8-4 and the drop off at quarterback is not that extreme. Another big injuries situation favors Baltimore as tackle Ronnie Stanley is expected back on the field and this is big for the offensive line as the Ravens are 5-1 in games he has started this season, and 3-3 in games he has missed. The Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. After beating the Falcons in Week 13, and their first time winning back-to-back games this season, the Steelers have some momentum going but there are still a lot of question marks and in reality, they should have lost that game to Atlanta. Pittsburgh is now 5-7 on the season and still remains in the playoff picture and while it has played the top ranked schedule in the league, it is just 1-4 against the top ten and 2-6 against the top 16. The Steelers will have trouble running the ball here and while Kenny Pickett is making positive progress, he will have trouble with the Ravens pass rush and secondary after the run is shutdown. The Steelers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS win. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 35-8 ATS (81.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Play (109) Baltimore Ravens

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Dave Price

Dave's Sunday Free Play:
1* on Eagles/Giants UNDER 45


The Key: This is a very high total for two teams that run the ball as often as the Eagles and Giants. The Eagles rank 5th in rushing this season while the Giants rank 6th. The Eagles average 34 rushing attempts per game while the Giants average 32. The clock is going to be constantly moving with these teams keeping the ball on the ground for the majority of the game. These are two good defenses with the Eagles yielding only 18.8 PPG overall and 18.6 PPG on the road. The Giants are only allowing 21.0 PPG overall and 19.7 PPG at home. The UNDER is 34-14-3 in Giants last 51 home games. The UNDER is 8-0 in Giants last eight home games off a loss. The UNDER is 8-0 in Giants last eight games as home underdogs. The Eagles and Giants have combined for 44 or fewer points in 4 consecutive matchups. Take the UNDER.

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John Martin

1 Unit FREE PLAY on New York Jets +10


The New York Jets have been riding their defense this season to a 7-5 record and very much alive in both the AFC playoff and division races. They rank 6th in scoring defense, 4th in total defense and 3rd in yards per play allowed. But now their offense has come to life with the insertion of Mike White at quarterback. He has led the Jets to 466 yards against the Bears and 486 yards against the Vikings the last two weeks. He can keep the Jets in this game against the Bills, but the defense has already proven they can shut down Buffalo. The Jets held the Bills to 17 points and 317 total yards in their 20-17 upset home win earlier this season. Now they are catching double-digits in the rematch again, which is too much. The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games off an ATS loss. Buffalo is 16-32 ATS in its last 48 games off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent. Give me the Jets.

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Sean Murphy

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.


They say revenge is a dish best served at home and I believe that will hold true when the Bills host the Jets on Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park. This will mark Buffalo's first true home game since November 13th, when they suffered a stunning 33-30 overtime loss against Minnesota. That was Buffalo's second straight loss at the time after falling in equally stunning fashion on the road against these same Jets the week previous. New York has been fading fast since, dropping two of three games and not travelling particularly well in losses in New England and Minnesota. While QB Mike White has given the offense a boost, the Bills have two weeks of tape on him from this season now and I expect their defense to feast on Sunday afternoon, even with Von Miller sidelined for the remainder of the season. Offensively, Robert Saleh's Jets have never really had an answer for all-world WR Stefon Diggs and he figures to go off in this 'revenge game' against Jets standout rookie corner Sauce Gardner. Considering Buffalo closed as a -10.5-point favorite when it faced the Jets in the Meadowlands last month, I believe the value has swung back in the Bills favor in this return match at home. Take Buffalo.

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Cole Faxon

FREE PLAY on Cowboys -16 1/2 -115

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Mike Williams

1* on Jaguars +3 1/2 -110

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Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Ohio +6 1/2 -115

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Ricky Tran

Ricky's 1* play on PHX+3 1/2

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the history of these teams is quite significant.Key Trends:
- The Suns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
- The Suns are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
- The Suns are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in New Orleans.
Verdict: The value is on the road underdog.

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Brandon Lee

Sunday's Free NFL Pick: Denver Broncos +9


I'll roll the dice with the Broncos as 9-point home dog against the Chiefs on Sunday. I'm not going to lie, it took a lot for me to put my hard earned money on this Denver team. I just couldn't pass up on the Broncos at this price.
This is a brutal spot for Kansas City, coming off a real crushing loss at Cincinnati last week. KC was really looking forward to that game, as it was their chance at redemption against the team that kept them out of the Super Bowl last season. They had the game in the palm of their hands and fumbled it away. I think it will be tough for them to get back up off the mat and give their best effort in this game.
As for the Broncos, they can't stand the Chiefs and I fully expect them to treat this game like it's their Super Bowl. Just like every other team that plays KC of late. The Chiefs are 3-0 SU in division games this year, but are 0-3 ATS, as all 3 wins have come by 3-points or less, including a fortunate 30-29 home win over the Raiders as a 7-point favorite.
As bad as Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense has been, this KC defense has struggled of late and were awful against the Bengals. I also think Denver defense playing at home can give Mahomes and the Chiefs offense some problems. Fully expect KC to win this game, just not by double-digits. Give me the Broncos +9!

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Jack Jones

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Carolina Panthers +4

The Carolina Panthers have quietly gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They beat the Broncos by 13 and outgained them by 103 yards. They were tied late in the 4th quarter against the Ravens on the road. They beat the Falcons by 10 while also losing to the Falcons by 3 in OT. And they crushed the Bucs by 18 at home for their five covers during this stretch.
Now the Panthers are coming off a bye week with new life still very much alive in the NFC South. Their offense has new life with Sam Darnold, who played well in his first start against a good Denver defense. Darnold completed 11-of-19 passes for 164 yards and a touchdown, while the Panthers rushed for 185 yards as a team.
Darnold won't have to do too much to keep the Panthers in this game because they should be able to run wild on this soft Seattle defense. The Panthers have rushed for at least 169 yards in four of their last six games. The Seahawks have allowed 122 or more rushing yards in four consecutive games and an average of 184.3 rushing yards per game in their last four. They rank 31st against the run at 155.3 yards per game and 28th at 4.9 yards per attempt.
No question Seattle has the better offense and that unit has carried the team this season. But there are a lot of significant injuries for them on offense, especially at the running back position. WR DK Metcalf is questionable with a hip injury, and QB Geno Smith has a banged up shoulder. The Seahawks will be up against an underrated Carolina defense that ranks 14th in scoring at 22.2 points per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play allowed. The Panthers have allowed 15 points or fewer in three consecutive games.
Plays against home favorites (Seattle) - off a non-cover where they won SU as a favorite, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 26-5 (83.9%) ATS since 1983. The spot favors the surging Panthers off a bye who are playing hard for interim head coach Steve Wilks. This is their 'last stand', and this line should be no more than Seattle -3. Bet the Panthers Sunday.

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Timothy Black

1* Best Bet on Bucs/49ers over 36 -110