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Sunday 12/18/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Dec 18 '22, 4:05 PM in 3h
NFL | Patriots vs Raiders
Play on: Raiders -1 -110 at Caesars
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Las Vegas Raiders -1
The Las Vegas Raiders are so much better than their 5-8 record would indicate. They have blown four double-digit leads this season, and if they won all four of those games they would be 9-4 instead of 5-8. They aren't going to quit as they've shown, and I expect a big effort from them against the New England Patriots this weekend.
The Patriots aren't as good as their 7-6 record would indicate. Amazingly, six of their seven wins (83%) have come against backup quarterbacks. Kyler Murray was injured right away last week and the Cardinals had to go with Colt McCoy the rest of the way as their good fortune continued. Well, their luck runs out this week as they won't be facing a backup quarterback.
Reinforcements are on the way for the Raiders as both TE Darren Waller and WR Hunter Renfrow are designated to return from injured reserve this week. The Raiders have still been playing well without them, but they will be much more tough to defend with these two back in the lineup. They have outgained four consecutive opponents by an average of 82.3 yards per game.
The spot really favors the Raiders as well. They get a mini-bye week after playing the Rams last Thursday. Meanwhile, the Patriots are on a short week here after playing on Monday Night Football, and they'll be playing their second consecutive road game to boot. They will be staying out West for this one, but that hasn't exactly worked for teams this season as we saw the 49ers struggle staying out East, and the Dolphins struggle staying out West.
Plays on favorites (Raiders) - after covering the spread in two of their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 49-20 (71%) ATS since 1983. The Raiders are favored for good reason this week given the rest advantage and the reinforcements they have on the way. They are much better off in the injury department than the Patriots this week. Bet the Raiders Sunday.
Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Tampa Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
The Buccaneers couldn't get anything going early and ultimately got blown out by the red hot 49ers in Santa Clara last Sunday. Here, I expect to see a positive response from Tom Brady and the Bucs but I also don't think for a second that the Bengals are going to back down. This game has shootout potential in my opinion with both teams set up well to show off all of their offensive weapons. Cincinnati was involved in a bit of a strange game against the division-rival Browns last week. Cleveland seems capable of getting involved in a low-scoring affair each and every week with QB Deshaun Watson working himself back up to speed. The Bengals offense certainly flashed in that contest and they've now scored 20 or more points in five straight and seven of their last eight contests - one of the highest 'floor' teams on a week-by-week basis in terms of offensive production in the NFL this season. The Bucs have been held to 17 points or less in three straight games - their longest such streak of the campaign. The potential is there for a breakout here, noting that they've bombed away 43, 54 and 55 times over their last three contests and figure to be playing from behind for at least some of this game as well. Both teams pass at about as high a clip as you'd want to see with an 'over' ticket in hand. Look for both teams to get well into the 20's in this one. Take the over.
1* FREE PLAY Calgary.
Off five-straight losses, I look for the Flames to finally get it together here on the road in San Jose in this favorable matchup. This is the opener of two straight here between the teams. The Sharks are just 10-16 after a 3-2 shootout loss at LA. They're just 3-8-2-3 at home. Expect the hungrier Flames to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes, and consider laying the price with Calgary on Sunday!
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