Thursday 1/5/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

PURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race 7	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 7 &8
Optional Claiming $80,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 101 • Purse: $88,000 • Post: 3:45P
(UP TO $15,312 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 THREE TIMES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $80,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER SINCE JULY 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $80,000 (ALLOWANCE HORSES PREFERRED)(1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * FOUETTE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Toda y is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. PIECE OF MY HEART: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SECRET LOVE: Horse ra nks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. EASY TO BLESS: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	FOUETTE	7/2	9/2
7	PIECE OF MY HEART	2/1	5/1
1	SECRET LOVE	5/2	7/1
2	EASY TO BLESS	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	THISTLEFIELD	3	15/1	Front-runner	84	79	93.8	66.4	54.4
5	FOUETTE	5	7/2	Front-runner	104	101	80.2	97.2	92.2
6	SHORT SUMMER DRESS	6	10/1	Front-runner	100	90	79.8	87.2	77.7
1	SECRET LOVE	1	5/2	Stalker	103	99	81.2	93.2	86.7
4	COREY	4	6/1	Stalker	98	89	75.6	88.6	77.6
2	EASY TO BLESS	2	6/1	Stalker	107	97	72.4	84.2	78.2
7	PIECE OF MY HEART	7	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	102	104	64.0	98.4	92.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta DownsPURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 7	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 7-8) ($1 min.) / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
SO $8,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 7:43P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS IN 2021 - 2022 OR CLAIMING PRICE $8,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 5 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 5 ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * LOVETHATCAUSE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest av erage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CREEKMORE: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. PARLAY PETE: Horse's average winning distance i s within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). FLASHING ANGELBABY: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
5	LOVETHATCAUSE	3/1	9/2
4	CREEKMORE	5/1	5/1
8	PARLAY PETE	4/1	8/1
3	FLASHING ANGELBABY	9/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	PARLAY PETE	8	4/1	Front-runner	85	85	79.4	79.6	70.6
3	FLASHING ANGELBABY	3	9/2	Front-runner	86	83	72.8	76.7	66.2
4	CREEKMORE	4	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	93	81	90.8	78.2	72.2
7	PLATINUM EQUITY	7	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	82	77	58.0	66.4	58.4
5	LOVETHATCAUSE	5	3/1	Stalker	89	86	67.2	84.8	80.3
1	HOT LE ROY	1	8/1	Trailer	82	83	42.0	71.4	57.9
2	HARDCORE FOLKLORE	2	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	87	88	46.5	74.7	67.2
6	BET AGAIN	6	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	81	58.2	67.8	56.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13300 Class Rating: 66

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 DYLADDIE 6/1
# 11 LADY WHISTLEDOWN 7/2
# 7 MY JUBA 3/1

DYLADDIE is my choice. Looks very good for the conditions of this affair today, showing solid figures in dirt sprint races recently. Always difficult to beat Hurley and Latchman working together, winning 20 percent of their races. LADY WHISTLEDOWN - She has solid class ratings, averaging 71, and has to be given a chance in this event. Has performed admirably lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 57 avg Equibase Speed Figure. MY JUBA - Has garnered solid Equibase speed figs in dirt sprint races in the past. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Hurley running at this distance are the top in this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Fair Grounds - Race #3 - Post: 2:15pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#5 PURSUIT L'HARMONIE (ML=3/1)
#6 VISIONISTA (ML=6/1)


PURSUIT L'HARMONIE - Atop this horse on December 2nd and Rodriguez is back again in the irons in this race. Jockey and conditioner do well when they work together. Rodriguez and Camejo have been consistent together. Just look at her last figure, 59. That one fits well in this group. This horse has the early speed, and no one may be able to keep up with her. This horse's last race was at Fair Grounds in a race with an Equibase class figure of 79. Dropping drastically in Equibase class figure this time around puts her in a solid position in this race. VISIONISTA - Got some betting action in maiden outing on Dec 23rd at Fair Grounds, but finished second. Has a shot in this field. This filly is in first-rate form right now. Ended up second last time around the track and comes back quickly. Expect better today as this filly gets Lasix for the second time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ENTITLEMENT (ML=5/2), #7 KYLE BEAUTY (ML=7/2), #4 YOCKEY BETTERFLY (ML=8/1),

ENTITLEMENT - The favorite is suspect here with the lack of morning drills. The speed fig last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this animal as a questionable contender. KYLE BEAUTY - I'm forecasting a lackluster effort out of her this time around. YOCKEY BETTERFLY - This racer will probably be at the back of the pack as this field crosses the finish line.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 PURSUIT L'HARMONIE to win at post-time odds of 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:15pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#2 NEVER (IRE) (ML=8/1)
#4 FELINE (ML=3/1)
#1 STAKE A CLAIM (ML=4/1)


NEVER (IRE) - I'm anticipating this race horse to run a good race this time out. FELINE - This filly is in excellent form right now. Ended up second in the last race and comes back promptly. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. She has the top earnings per race. Take a long look at this horse. STAKE A CLAIM - I like to play this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a solid race within the last month. Last raced at Gulfstream Park carrying 7 pounds more. The lower impost in this event should serve her well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MUSICAL DESIGN (ML=5/2), #8 RED TIARA (ML=5/1), #5 LITA (ML=6/1),

MUSICAL DESIGN - This filly hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last two efforts. RED TIARA - This animal hasn't been in the money in either of her last couple of races. Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint races recently. Not likely to see her doing it in today's event either. Not probable that this runner will be at her best this time around off the long turnout. Maybe next time out. LITA - This vulnerable equine didn't go to the lead and didn't close ground in the lane last time she ran. Improbable for this steed to do much in today's event. The very long layoff is a troublesome sign.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #2 NEVER (IRE) on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,2,4] with [1,2,4] with [1,2,4,5,8] with [1,2,4,5,8] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21600 Class Rating: 72

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 5. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 HIGHLY EXPLOSIVE 5/2
# 3 CAT'S RHYTHM 3/1
# 6 NORTHERN JOURNEY 5/1

HIGHLY EXPLOSIVE supports the wager in here. Has solid speed figures and has to be considered for a bet for this event. This mare obviously likes the distance, going 6 out of 33 in her races lately. Has to be given a chance here if only for the very good speed figure put up in the last affair. CAT'S RHYTHM - Her 66 average has this mare with among the top Equibase Speed Figures in this race. Had one of the strongest speed figures of this group in her last contest. NORTHERN JOURNEY - She should be given consideration given the formidable speed figs. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Aviles ought to have this mare in excellent position to win the contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds

PURCHASE

01/05/23, FG, Race 3, 2.15 CT
01/05/23,FG,3,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $50,000 (includes up to $8,000 Other Sources). FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 120 lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For Less Than $25,000 In Their Last 3 Starts).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Pursuit l'Harmonie	3/1	Rodriguez J L	Camejo Jose M.	JTWL	70	28.57	1.69/$1
097.7050	7	Kyle Beauty	7/2	Loveberry J	Faucheux Ron		102	37.25	1.40/$1
097.6114	6	Visionista	6/1	Murrill M	Rodriguez Eduardo	FC	102	37.25	1.40/$1
097.4232	2	Entitlement	5/2	Pedroza. Jr. M	David. Jr. Sam B.	SE	70	28.57	1.69/$1
095.2256	4	Yockey Betterfly	8/1	Graham J	Balderas Alfonso		102	37.25	1.40/$1
093.9461	1	Beulah K	8/1	Castillo A	Snodderly Rhonda		102	37.25	1.40/$1
091.6728	3	Dat Guitar	10/1	Albert T S	DeRousselle Peter P.		70	28.57	1.69/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 29.49, ROI 0.88/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.2950
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
Finish Turf Last 1 (M)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Turfway Park Tip Sheet - January 5

Jan. 04, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 62% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $5,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Nordic Light	M Franklin
PLACE	3-1	1	Lead Actor	L Machado
SHOW	7-2	9	B G Lee	G Corrales
WILD CARD	5-1	8	Command Central	C Landeros
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Over Calendared	D J Haldar
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Tigerito	J McKee
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/9 BOX, 1/8/9 BOX
RACE #2 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:25 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	9	Connelmaura	G Corrales
PLACE	3-1	2	Happysecret	F Peterson
SHOW	8-1	1	Smooth Like Ice	L Machado
WILD CARD	7-2	4	Captive Star	C Landeros
ALTERNATE 1	15-1	5	One Stormy Lady	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Twelve Sharp	V Cheminaud
* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/9 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #3 $5,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	4	Inherent Powers	F De La Cruz
PLACE	8-1	1	Valley Vista	E Esquivel
SHOW	6-1	9	Barstow	W A Rodriguez
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Chief Howcome	P W Ouzts
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Dudley	I Ayala
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	11	Pull Me Back	T Canuto
* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/9 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX
RACE #4 $7,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:25 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	11	Yellow Creek Road	L Machado
PLACE	7-2	2	Mrs. Nushi	G Corrales
SHOW	3-1	12	Arlynes Crown	J Elliott
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Jumakan Bourbon	A Burgos
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	13	Sea Monster	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	9	Green Bananas	C Orm
* EXACTA: 11-2 BOX, 2-12 BOX, 12-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/11/12 BOX, 1/2/12 BOX
RACE #5 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:55 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 MIRANDA RIGHTS
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	6	Miranda Rights	V Cheminaud
PLACE	7-2	1	Donegal Arrow	C Landeros
SHOW	6-1	7	Accident	F De La Cruz
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Noted Talent	A Achard
ALTERNATE 1	20-1	8	Ravens Nest	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	9	Connect Me	G Corrales
* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/7 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX
RACE #6 $76,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:25 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 BALI BELLE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	2	Bali Belle	E Esquivel
PLACE	5-2	3	Maybe Later	G Corrales
SHOW	5-1	6	Tap Dancing Lady	D J Haldar
WILD CARD	10-1	1	Legerity	J McKee
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Crystal Ship	W A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Heavenly Hellos	F De La Cruz
* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #7 $20,000 CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:55 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	11	Abitibi	G Corrales
PLACE	20-1	1	Je Suis Rapide	V Lebron
SHOW	6-1	8	Quick Conversation	L Machado
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Charlee O	J E Felix
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	9	Wicked Wonder	W A Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 11-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/11 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
RACE #8 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 9:25 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 MISS LIZZY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	9	Miss Lizzy	A Lezcano
PLACE	4-1	5	Miss J D	A Achard
SHOW	5-1	4	Three Sport Coats	F De La Cruz
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Chica Chula	A Beckman
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	13	Ms. the Law	M Franklin
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Bobbie Sox	W A Rodriguez
* EXACTA: 9-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/9 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fair Grounds Tip Sheet - January 5

Jan. 04, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 64% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $5,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	1	Bet On Bourbon	J L Rodriguez
PLACE	3-1	3	Resposado	J Graham
SHOW	5-1	2	Enough Heart	T S Albert
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Eyeseemoney	J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	The Missing Piece	B Culp
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Spectacular Izzy	E Nieves
* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
RACE #2 $30,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 JOANS WAY
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	6	Joans Way	R Gutierrez
PLACE	5-2	3	Shaniah	J Loveberry
SHOW	6-1	4	Miss G G	F Geroux
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Ma Cherie	B Culp
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	1	Sweet Beauty	D L Parker
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	5	Dream Streak	C J Hernandez
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
RACE #3 $50,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	5	Pursuit lHarmonie	J L Rodriguez
PLACE	5-2	2	Entitlement	M Pedroza Jr.
SHOW	6-1	6	Visionista	M Murrill
WILD CARD	7-2	7	Kyle Beauty	J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Yockey Betterfly	J Graham
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Beulah K	A Castillo
* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
RACE #4 $30,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	9-2	3	Lightning Struck	J Graham
PLACE	8-1	1	Alebrije	M Pedroza Jr.
SHOW	2-1	4	Summer Splash	C J Hernandez
WILD CARD	5-2	6	Tango Charlie	E Morales
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	2	Sierra Hotel	J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	5	Kennesaw	M Murrill
* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
RACE #5 $5,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	6	Overthought	J Graham
PLACE	5-2	3	Counter Offer	M Pedroza Jr.
SHOW	6-1	8	The Gray Blur	B Culp
WILD CARD	6-1	5	Sermononthemount	E Nieves
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Color Fast	J Riquelme
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	4	Tio Blas	S Barandela
* EXACTA: 6-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX
RACE #6 $52,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	3	Scarlettsblackjack	J L Rodriguez
PLACE	3-1	4	Hooray Austin	R Gutierrez
SHOW	9-2	7	Gravy Hound	J Graham
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Gwildcat	G Melancon
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Bootsies Galaxy	C J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	1A	Binding Agreement	E Nieves
* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX
RACE #7 $50,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #12 FUJIN
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	12	Fujin	D L Parker
PLACE	7-2	3	Willakenzie	F Geroux
SHOW	9-2	1	Dual Monarchy	J Graham
WILD CARD	9-2	6	Sir	B J Hernandez Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	9-2	8	Sam Stormy	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	9	Myredwhiteandblue	J Loveberry
* EXACTA: 12-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/12 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
RACE #8 $51,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 SUNDAY BREEZE
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	8	Sunday Breeze	D L Parker
PLACE	6-1	4	Bouldering	R Gutierrez
SHOW	9-2	6	Tambourine Star	D Cohen
WILD CARD	7-2	9	Duvee	M Pedroza Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Runninginthemoney	J Graham
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	7	Commander Scott	J Riquelme
* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 4/6/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Tip Sheet - January 5

Jan. 04, 2023


Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 68% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $25,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 BOINTHEBACK
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	8-5	7	Your Mission	K Carmouche
PLACE	6-1	1	Reunion Tour	M Olver
SHOW	5-2	2	Midnight Express	J Lezcano
WILD CARD	12-1	3	Tiza Brown	A Castillo
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Uncle Bruce	O Hernandez Moreno
* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
RACE #2 $16,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:18 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	2	Melting Snow	K Carmouche
PLACE	5-2	5	Vegas Weekend	M Franco
SHOW	8-1	4	Prairie Fire	A Adorno
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Viradia	A S Worrie
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	6	Greatest Love	R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	1	New York Banker	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX
RACE #3 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:47 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	6	Motion to Strike	J A Gomez
PLACE	8-5	4	Gandy Dancing	K Carmouche
SHOW	5-2	1	Double Shot	M Franco
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Acalteque	E Fuentes
ALTERNATE 1	5-2	1A	Bustin the Rules	M Olver
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	First Deputy	G Huayas
* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
RACE #4 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #10 SECOND AND REED
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-2	10	Second and Reed	E Cancel
PLACE	9-2	6	Basic Truth	J A Gomez
SHOW	6-1	3	Metamorphoses	G Huayas
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Charlies Medal	J A Davis
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	5	Saratoga Strong	M Olver
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	8	Dannys a Cowboy	L A Rodriguez Castro
* EXACTA: 10-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/10 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
RACE #5 $82,000 ALLOWANCE 1 3/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7-5	7	Tonal Impact	K Carmouche
PLACE	4-1	1	Anejo	J Lezcano
SHOW	6-1	2	Bold Victory	M Franco
WILD CARD	5-2	4	Gasoline	E Cancel
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Royal Tryst	J Laprida
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Vasariano	J A Gomez
* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
RACE #6 $72,000 ALLOWANCE 1 1/8 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:16 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	2	Mason Mania	J Lezcano
PLACE	1-1	1	Simply	J A Vargas Jr.
SHOW	9-2	7	Rias Angel	E Cancel
WILD CARD	12-1	4	Royal Suspect	R R Maragh
ALTERNATE 1	1-1	1A	Ouster	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	6	Son of an Ex	J R Martinez
* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
RACE #7 $88,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	1	Secret Love	K Carmouche
PLACE	2-1	7	Piece of My Heart	J Lezcano
SHOW	7-2	5	Fouette	J A Vargas Jr.
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Easy to Bless	J A Davis
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	Short Summer Dress	M Franco
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Thistlefield	A Adorno
* EXACTA: 1-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
RACE #8 $25,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:14 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 CHIARA
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-2	9	Chiara	H K Harkie
PLACE	4-1	8	Bonana Fanna Foe	J A Davis
SHOW	9-2	2	Treat Street	K Carmouche
WILD CARD	10-1	1	Tonight We Love	J A Vargas Jr.
ALTERNATE 1	7-2	5	Try It Again	J Lezcano
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	6	Warsalm	A S Worrie
* EXACTA: 9-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/8/9 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - January 5

Jan. 04, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (10) Morgan’s Bluff rallied for second in her last try on turf and gets the nod here. (5) Artifact makes her debut on turf and seems well-bred for it. (4) Take It South might wake up in a claimer. (1) Breaking Bullet could control the early pace from the rail. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-10.
3rd race – (7) Mandy Green (A) missed by a neck in a sharp try and should make amends here. (3) Zisisit comes off a solid maiden win and merits attention. (2) Maria’s Revenge would benefit from a quick pace. (6) Chess Not Checkers fits in with this group. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-7. Exactas: 3-7 over 2-6 and 2-6 over 3-7. Doubles: 2-3-6-7 with 1-3-4-7.
4th race – (1) Ana’s Gun was a solid second in her debut and should graduate here. (3) Mija rallied for second last time and may improve on Lasix. (7) Undoubtedly certainly figures to be a factor here. (4) Mutola might be a factor in her debut. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3. Exactas: 1-3 over 4-7 and 4-7 over 1-3.
6th race – (2) Elusive Mischief should appreciate the distance and the move to Tapeta and handle this field. (1) Crack Shot may benefit from a rail trip. (7) He’s in Charge could respond with a better try while running on Tapeta. (5) Charmed will be a contender on his best try. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5-7.
8th race – (1) Collaborate drops in class and should be tough to beat at this shorter distance. (9) Celestial Glaze should be closing quickly at the end and might be the main threat. (6) Create Again may take a step forward off the Walder claim. (10) Ludington will welcome a dry track. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-6-9-10.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(7)	Mandy Green	A, 12/9	3 GP	Missed by a neck last time

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Hotlist - January 5

Jan. 04, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
4^th race [Md 20000, 1 mi] – (10) Second and Reed makes a big drop down to this lowest maiden claiming level after running ok in his first three starts at Aqueduct and gets Lasix for the first time. (6) Basic Truth got bumped hard at the break of his debut race and could get loose on the lead in here. (7) Excalibrate set the pace in a few of his prior races and shows up as a new gelding after an October layoff. (5) Saratoga Strong gets Lasix and blinkers after his debut three weeks ago.
5^th race [Alw 82000 N1X, 1 3/16 mi] – (2) Bold Victory had wide trips in his last two starts and should appreciate the added distance. (7) Tonal Impact is riding a four-race winning streak with speed figures jumping up during that time. He was claimed three times during that sequence with a starter allowance score most recently. (6) Vasariano makes his second start at the Big A for trainer Norman Cash who runs his horses frequently. He was fourth last time at this level. (4) Gasoline came back from a layoff for Todd Pletcher and could get to the lead.
6^th race [NY, Alw 72000 N1X, 1 1/8 mi] – (2) Mason Mania (B) had a rough start which put him at the back of a large field forcing him to rally which is not his preferred style and still managed to finish third. [(1) Simply / (1A) Ouster]are both contenders to win this state-bred allowance. (7) Ria’s Angel returns to NY-bred company for the hot Linda Rice barn who claimed him two races back and then got a win. (8) Dr. Marbooz changed barns recently and moved to race at Aqueduct from Finger Lakes.
8^th race [NY, Md 25000, 6F] – (8) Bonana Fanna Foe (B) got pinched back at the start, rallied from last to third, and gets blinkers on. (9) Chiara moved from turf to dirt and finished second behind a horse that came back to win her next start. (7) Menily gets blinkers on and makes a big drop from maiden special weight to this lowest level claimer at Aqueduct. (5) Try It Again has not run since 2021 but faced two fields that were filled with winning horses.
Best bets: Second and Reed (4^th); Bonana Fanna Foe (8^th). Best value: Bold Victory (5^th); Mason Mania (6^th)

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(2)	Mason Mania	B on 12/9	6	Had a rough start and rallied up for third.
(8)	Banana Fanna Foe	B on 12/8	8	Got pinched back at start, prefers to press pace, finished third.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Thursday, January 5
Posted on January 4, 2023 by David Aragona

RACE 5: ANEJO (#1)

Tonal Impact (#7) will be tough for this field to handle if he runs back to his last effort when he beat a starter allowance field by nearly 5 lengths. That was his fourth victory in a row while continuing to move up the class ladder, and he earned his highest speed figure first off the claim for the Linda Rice barn. This horse seemed to love the demanding 9 furlongs at Aqueduct, as he launched a sweeping move to the lead around the far turn before drawing off with authority. Therefore, this slight stretch-out to 1 3/16 miles shouldn’t bother him at all. I much prefer him to main rival Gasoline (#4), who is coming off a disappointing performance at this level in December. It’s hard to find an excuse for that loss as the even-money favorite, and his form has generally been getting more unreliable since a promising start to his career. My top pick is Anejo (#1). This New York-bred ran well on this circuit over the summer, finishing a good second at this level to Saint Tapit, before winning his last state-bred condition in September with a rail-skimming run. Since then he’s ventured back out into open company in Kentucky, but he hasn’t found the right circumstances. He got a poor trip two back when hung out wide every step of the way against a very strong field. And I won’t hold his synthetic race against him, as he’s proven to be better on dirt. I think he can handle this distance given the right trip and he should be a fair price.

RACE 6: SON OF AN EX (#6)

The Windylea Farm entry figures to go off at a very short price here, and both halves can surely win this race. However, I’m not confident enough in either of their chances to swallow their expected slim odds. Many may consider Simply (#1)the stronger half of this pair off his solid runner-up finish at this level last time. He arguably had a slightly tougher trip than winner Full Moon Fever, who saved more ground that day. He appears to be in solid form, but his lack of early speed is always a concern. I actually prefer Ouster (#1A) of the two Windylea runners. He’s excelled on turf recently, but he handled dirt without issue early in his career. I think the key to his recent success has been the stretch-out in distance, as he’s always looked like a horse that would relish more ground. Mark Hennig also tends to do very well with runners for this owner. He’s dangerous, but I wanted to look for some better value with one of the alternatives. Mason Mania (#2)may appreciate added ground, and Ria’s Angel (#7) is in solid form, but I couldn’t really get behind either one of them. My top pick is Son of an Ex (#6), who may be the best price of any of these contender. The Randi Persaud barn has been in the midst of a strong run at Aqueduct, going 10 for 64 over the past 4 months. Notably, Persaud is 10 for 42 (24%, $4.45 ROI) with horses that went off at odds of 20-1 or less during that time period, and 5 for 12 (42%, $6.03 ROI) with such runners over the past 3 weeks. Son of an Ex finished off the board in his return, but he was facing a much tougher open company field that day. The pace of that race was also pretty slow, so he had little chance to make a late impact. I think he’ll fare better here on the class drop, and he should be a decent price with a low-profile rider named.

RACE 7: SHORT SUMMER DRESS (#6)

With the report from Dave Grening that one of the Linda Rice runners, Fouette (#5), will likely scratch from this spot, Rice’s other entrant Piece of My Heart (#7) figures to vie for favoritism. From a speed figure standpoint, this 6-year-old mare is the horse to beat, but she’s awfully tough to endorse as a win candidate, especially at a short price. She’s lost 17 consecutive starts despite being in many races that she seemingly had a chance to win over the past couple of seasons. She’s been in strong form since the claim by Rice over the summer, but we saw her major character flaw on display last time, as she just failed to catch stablemate Fouette in the lane. Her main rival in the wagering figures to be Secret Love (#1), who move sup in class following a win at the N2X level last time. This New York-bred was steadily improving in the second half of last season, but she is meeting a tougher field than the one she defeated last time. That was also a race where a few key rivals had trouble at the start. I want to go in a different direction. Some may consider Easy to Bless (#2)in her second start off the layoff after she made a brief middle move in a starter allowance race last month. Yet I’m most interested in another runner from that affair. Short Summer Dress (#6) could get overlooked here after finishing fourth in that Dec. 11 affair, even though she defeated Easy to Bless that day. She got a strange trip, as she was advancing into contention on the turn before seeming to lose focus, drifting out while tentatively ridden to the quarter pole. She lost position, but then seemed to reengage one the field straightened away in the lane, coming on again to just miss third. Perhaps she can run a more professional race with blinkers added, and she figures to get the right trip, especially after the scratch of Fouette. I know it appears that she’s been off form for Joseph Lee, but I don’t think she’s run nearly as bad as it might appear and believe she can rebound here at a price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pick 5 Play for Fair Grounds Thursday, Jan. 5: Strategic Opinion
Kevin Kilroy

Having a strategic opinion can be reason enough to play a Pick 5. An example of a strategic opinion is singling in a spot where other players psychologically have a hard time singling, i.e. the first and last legs.

I have a single in the opening leg with #3 Lightning Struck (9-2), who will likely go off as the bettor’s third choice. Strategically, this frees up my bankroll to spread in other legs where I like the favorites but also have trip excuses for some lively prices. Another way of attacking this if you don’t like Lightning Stuck as much as I do would be to use a few others in that leg and drop off the favorites in Race 5 (3,6) and Race 8 (6,9).
Race Horses
R4

3
R5

3, 5, 6, 8, 9
R6

2,3
R7

3,5
R8

3, 5, 6, 8, 9

50-cent Pick 5 = $50
Race 4: Dirt, 6 furlongs, Clm 30000B, 4-year-olds and up

Tom Amoss and Eduardo Rodriguez have two runners in here. Alebrije is back at Fair Grounds. Each of those could win, but give me #3 Lightning Struck (9-2) all day. Steve Asmussen’s runner looked legit last time pressing outside and taking over in the turn. He’s stepping up in class, but the Thoro-Graph pattern projects he’s got a 30% chance of running a new top.
Race 5: Dirt, 1 1/16 miles, Clm 5000B, 4-year-olds and up

#3 Counter Offer (5-2) has shown consistent form, and a repeat effort here puts him in contention. Blinkers on and a drop in class, so it is reasonable to expect an improvement. #5 Sermononthemount (6-1) had a tough start taking hits from both sides out of the gate then ran way wide on a day the rail was the place to be. #6 Overthought (5-2) ran well at this level, winning two back, then moved up in class and got a reality check. James Graham getting back up is a good sign. #8 The Gray Blur (6-1) won when stretching out last time. John Hirdes keeps him at this distance and if he can maintain form similar to that of Hirdes runner Max Pandowdy on Sunday running his second route after a sprint, then he could beat these. #9 Mishko (12-1) makes his first start for Sarah Delany but his third start in the form cycle. Live longshot.
Race 6: Dirt, 6 furlongs, OC 20k/N2X, 4-year-old and up statebreds

Really nice combination of works for #2 G’wildcat (8-1) since being claimed by Keith Bourgeois. The Thoro-Graph pattern suggests he’s sitting on a new top, and the price will be right. #3 Scarlettsblackjack (5-2) lost to Prizeless last out, possibly the hottest horse at Delta, and Mexican Wonder Boy, who won a nice race at Saratoga last summer. He tried to rate behind some serious speed and threw in the towel. He will be on the lead today and should be tough to catch.
Race 7: Turf, about 1 1/8 miles, Md Sp Wt 50k, 3-year-olds

Stonestreet's #3 Willakenzie (5-2), out of the two-year-old debut and Golden Rod S. winner Road to Victory, worked sharp coming into this. He should have the precocity and definitely has the connections to win at first asking going long on the turf. The full sibling to graded-stakes winner Magical Feeling, #5 Fortune (4-1) gets back to business on the turf after facing Michael Stidham’s stand-out colt Phileas Fogg, who ran huge. Two races back, he had a tough trip and should be rounding into form second off the layoff.
Race 8: Dirt, 1 mile 70 yards, Alw 51000N1X, 4-year-old and up statebreds

Admittedly, I’ve been chasing #3 Scoring Drive (15-1), but hear me out. Two turns on the dirt makes sense pedigree-wise, and seeing the form cycle, which began in April of 2022, the third start is where he makes that big step forward, which he’d need to do to win this. Blame the recent wide trips and wet tracks, and #5 Runninginthemoney (8-1) makes sense. As I overheard Graham tell the railbirds the other day, “If I’m up, then the horse can win.” Tough start for #6 Tambourine Star (9-2) last out, and then he had to chase down the loose rail speedster Gold Punch on a rail/speed favoring day. Questionable ride by Colby Hernandez last time on #8 Sunday Breeze (5-1) who broke sharp and got stuck wide. When asked late, this runner showed a lot trying to chase down a loose leader on a speed-favoring day. Now seeing that bullet work, I wouldn’t argue with you about singling that one. But there are just too many good excuses for other prices in here to ignore, as with #9 Duvee (7-2), who got pressured into sprinter-esque fractions last out. Looks like he’ll be able to set moderate fractions in here, and that could make the difference.