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Phenom (College 6-2, NFL 1-1)
New England
Dallas
Philly
San Diego
Indy 1st half
New England
Dallas
Philly
San Diego
Indy 1st half
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Re: 9-7-08
NFL WEEK 1
View last week’s column. *Source: SportsInsights.com
Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 1 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch
SportsInsights.com takes a unique approach to sports betting. We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. SportsInsights.com collects betting statistics from major online sportsbooks and talks to odds makers. We learn which way every game is being bet. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.
471 Dallas Cowboys vs Cleveland Browns
This is the most “lopsided-bet” game of the weekend. The public is betting this game like they know the score. The Dallas Cowboys were one of the best teams last year and are one of the Superbowl favorites this year.
While we agree that the Cowboys are once again “America’s Team” – we’re against the preseason hype surrounding the Cowboys. The hype is potentially creating an over-valuation on the Cowboys. This week’s NFL betting data confirms that the public loves “America’s team.” In this week’s game, Dallas is collecting almost five out of every six bets versus Cleveland.
The line opened at Dallas -3 but the avalanche of bets on Dallas has moved the line all the way to Dallas -6. That is a huge 3 point value. In the NFL, a field goal is a solid value. We’re taking the +6 offering at Sportsbook or SIA, looking for the Browns to keep it close.
Cleveland Browns +6 (Sports Interaction)
455 New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
There is heavy one-sided action on the New York Jets -3. The Jets are receiving about 80% of all bets placed on this game. The Public has been swayed by the “Summer of Favre” media frenzy – and the memory of the Dolphins compiling a 1-15 season in 2007.
Let’s not forget that the Jets (4-12) only scored one more point last season than the one-win Dolphins, who were without their top two running backs (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) for the majority of the season. In addition, Brett Favre still doesn’t have a full grasp of the Jets’ playbook, which will limit what plays the coaches can call.
We love the value in the Home Dog value in getting Miami +3, plus the fact that despite heavy one way action on the Jets, the line hasn’t moved. This is an excellent indicator that the Sharp money is on Miami +3. Our readers know that we always follow the Sharp money!
Miami Dolphins +3 (BetUS)
479 Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
Monday Night Football has the Favre-less Green Bay Packers at home versus the Minnesota Vikings. You would think that “the solid Packer playoff team” from last year lost half of their team in addition to their aging star, Brett Favre.
The visiting Minnesota Vikings are collecting about 70% of the bets. All of this public money has pushed the “number” off of the huge key number of 3. There is good value in getting Green Bay -2 at home. We’ll “bet against the public” and grab this contrarian value.
Green Bay Packers -2
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 1.
Games to Watch (0-0-0)
Cleveland Browns +6 (Sports Interaction)
Miami Dolphins +3 (BetUS)
Green Bay Packers -2
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com -
Re: 9-7-08
Ace Ace/Alan Eastman plays for sunday.
SD-6 1ST HALF...........................$2000.00 -105
I think that it’s one of the strongest plays on the board. I also think that there is more value on this game in the first half than there is opening ourselves up to a back door cover on the large number. The Panthers have to travel cross-country without their best player, suspended wideout Steve Smith, and take on a team that many have destined for the Super Bowl. The Chargers covered all six of their non-divisional home games last year, winning all six by double-digit margins. They got off to fast starts in those games and we expect the same thing this weekend. The Chargers are 44-20-2 ATS overall and have been a dominating home team. I think they will overwhelm the visiting Panthers, who are still adjusting to the loss of their best player.
DET-3.......................................$2500.00 -110
Matt Ryan is making his NFL debut at home against the visiting Lions and I expect him to make some typical rookie mistakes. The Falcons are firmly entrenched in a rebuilding mode. And while they will play hard they don’t have the overall talent to win many games this year. The main area where I expect Detroit to take advantage is against the weak Atlanta secondary. Detroit likes to throw the ball all over the field and I think they will have an easier time moving the ball than Atlanta will against an improving Detroit defense. Atlanta is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games.
CIN-1.5.....................................$2000.00 -110
The Ravens have not looked good at all this preseason and now they are breaking in a new quarterback and a new head coach. Baltimore is just 1-5 ATS in its last six divisional games and 1-5 in its last six games in Week 1. This defense is not what it once was, and with an offense that is going to be even worse than what they’ve had to deal with over the last few years that’s a recipe for disaster.
IND-6.5 1ST HALF.........................$800.00 -105
Just as with our play on San Diego, I think there is simply more value on the first half of this game than with the large numbers. The Chicago defense is not as strong as it has been and I am betting that Peyton Manning shakes off the rust early. Indy is facing a soft Cover-2, the same defense that they play, so nothing the Bears will do on D will be anything they aren’t used to. Kyle Orton is also an unproven quarterback making a start in the RCA Dome and I expect a slow start from a weak Chicago offense. We just need the Colts to be by a touchdown for this one to cash and I think they will be ahead much more than that at the break.
DAL-5.5................................ .....$600.00 -105
The Browns are a little banged up and I think the Cowboys are going to take advantage of that weak Cleveland secondary. Derek Anderson has not fully gotten over his concussion and hasn’t been able to find a rhythm with his receivers since he’s been out of action for several weeks. The Cowboys have covered five straight spreads in Week 1 and I think that they are going to be too talented for Cleveland in this one.
NYJ UNDER 36.............................$300.00 -103
When I look at these two teams I see two improved defenses and two new quarterbacks. On top of that this is going to be an intense rivalry game because it’s not only between two divisional foes, but between an ex-quarterback (Chad Pennington) that was dumped by his former team. The Dolphins have bought into the “Parcells Way” and that means playing good defense and running the ball. On top of that, Pennington knows the entire Jets playbook inside and out – even better than Brett Favre - and will have the Fins prepared for everything New York wants to do.
GB UNDER 38..............................$500.00 -105
Neither of the quarterbacks on either side is anything to write home about so I see the defenses dictating the tempo in this one. Green Bay was an exceptional ‘over’ team last year and has gone ‘over’ in eight straight NFC games. But streaks like that generally don’t carry over into the following year. Also, the ‘under’ is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these two teams. Also, the ‘under’ is 15-6-1 in Minnesota’s last 22 games on grass.
SEA +1.......................................$300.00 -106
The Seahawks offense will be fine with Matt Hasselbeck at the helm and I think that they are the better team in this situation. The Bills have been a poor team in the first-half of the year over the last few seasons, and they have lost some heart breakers in their home openers over the last few years. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in this series and the Seahawks are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 September games.
NYG-4.5......................................$300.00 WINNER
Defending Super Bowl champions are 6-0-1 ATS in their first game of the season over the last seven years and I expect that trend to continue. The Redskins are still struggling to learn new systems on both sides of the ball and they did not look good at all over their last three preseason games. On top of that, they will likely be without Jason Taylor. The favorite in this rivalry series is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the Giants are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 divisional games.
gl to all......Comment
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Re: 9-7-08
Wild Bill
Chiefs +17 (5 units)
Panthers +10 (5 units)
Vikings + 3 (5 units)
Packers-Vikings Over 38 1/2 (5 units)
Bengals -1 (5 units)
Jets -3 (5 units)
Jacksonville -2 1/2 (5 units)
Jax-Titans Over 37 (5 units)
Detroit-Falcons Over 41 (5 units)
Seattle -1 (5 units)
Carolina-Chargers Under 42 (5 units)
Arizona-49ers Under 42 (5 units)
Bears +9 1/2 (5 units)
Denver-Raiders Over 41 1/2 (5 units)Comment
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Re: 9-7-08
Teddy Sevransky/ Teddy Covers (over/under wins props)
20* NE Pats under 12.5
The following are all 10*
Ravens Under 6
Bills Over 7.5
Bears Under 8
Browns Under 8.5
Texans Over 7.5
KC Under 6
Vikings Over 8.5
Saints Over 8.5
Rams Under 6.5Comment
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Re: 9-7-08
PlusLineSports Daily Client Information
Sunday September 6, 2008
Detroit(Lambert) vs Minnesota(Perkins)
Minnesota -1.5 Runline , Moneyline. Lines not available at time of posting
Game time is 1:10 CST Sunday September 7Comment
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Re: 9-7-08
ATS Consultants NEWSLETTER
Detroit (-3) over Atlanta
The Lions have a much improved team and should be able to pressure rookie QB Matt Ryan into making turnovers for Atlanta.
Sharp Money Moves
Carolina (+9') over San Diego
Buffalo (pk) over SeattleComment
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Re: 9-7-08
Lt Profits
2 Unit Houst + 6 1/2
2 Unit Philly - 7 1/2 ( -105 )
2 Unit San Fran + 3 (-115)
2 Unit Denver - 2 1/2 (-135)Comment
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Re: 9-7-08
Norm Hitzges
NFL
Triple Play
Philadelphia -7.5 vs St. Louis
Double Plays
Cincinnati -1.5 vs Baltimore
Dallas -5.5 vs Cleveland
San Francisco/Arizona Under 42
Jacksonville/Tennessee Under 36.5
Single Plays
Tennessee +3 vs Jacksonville
Indianapolis -9.5 vs Chicago
Carolina +9 vs San Diego
Buffalo -1 vs Seattle
Dallas/Cleveland Under 49
Buffalo/Seattle Over 38.5
Detroit/Atlanta Under 41Comment
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Re: 9-7-08
PRO INFO SPORTS
Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: UNDER 41
Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)
The Lions open the 2008 campaign in Atlanta as 3 point road favorites. This is a role they have certainly struggled with in the past, posting a record of 0-7 both SU and ATS since 1997. Lions coach Marinelli is also 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS on the road.
Atlanta will start 1st Round Draft Choice QB Matt Ryan from Boston College . A new coach and new QB mean growing pains and an offense that will struggle to start the season. Although the Falcon defense was able to hold opponents to only 12 points per game during the preseason which shows they do have the desire to put last years fiasco behind them and concentrate on the job at hand.
We believe the combination of all these factors will lead to a low scoring affair in the Georgia Dome on Sunday afternoon. We also note that these two teams have combined for a 7-1 Under record in Game One of the season over the last four years.
Technical support for our selection comes from systems that tell us to Play Under on NFL Week One favorites of 4 points or less. This system has been perfect posting a record of 15-0 Under the last 15 qualifying contests. Week One dome games have also produced a perfect Under record going 9-0 Under the last nine times.
A Detroit team that struggles on the road and a "new" Falcons team along with strong technical support combine for a nice opening week 2* Under Selection winner in the Lions / Falcons match up.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Detroit / Atlanta UNDER 41Comment
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Re: 9-7-08
Marc Lawrence:
5* Titans, 49ers Under
4* Browns, Rams Under
3* Bengals, Steelers OverComment
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Re: 9-7-08
Rocketman
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Play:1* Cincinnati -1 1/2
Cincinnati is 3-1 SU and ATS overall vs Baltimore last 3 years. Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC. Ravens are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games on grass. Ravens are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1. Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North. Ravens are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC. Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on CincinnatiComment
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Re: 9-7-08
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
New Orleans/ Tampa Bay Under 42.5
The Under is 15-2 in Tampa's first game of the season and 6-1 when they are div road dogs of less than 5, while the Under is 8-1 in New Orleans' game 1 of the season and 11-5 when they are division home favs of 3 or more. A couple of solid systems for this one as well. System 1: Game played in a dome on opening weekend have gone 0-9 Under the last 4 years. System 2: NFC South games played in September are a perfect 0-10 Under if the home team is favored the last 6 years. I realize that the last 5 in this series has gone over the total, but this is the spot for that streak to stop. One thing this Tampa team knows how to do is play defense, as the Bucs come off a season in which they allowed just 17 ppg and then followed that up by allowing just 11.3 ppg in the preseason. Tampa is a team that has to rely on their defense as the offense just isn't that good as they put up just 20 ppg last year and just 19.3 ppg in the preseason. The Saints offense really struggled in 3 of their 4 preseaon games and they scored just 23 points in their final 2 games. Defense has been a sore spot for this team, but they did play much better in the preseason as they allowed 14 or less in 3 of the 4 games. The Bucs offense is not great so they will look to run and control the clock, so they can keep the ball away from the high powered Saint offense. Both defenses will really step up in this game and keep the score in the lower 30's.
2 UNIT PLAY
Cinncinnati -1 over BALTIMORE
This Ravens team is a mess right now and it all starts at the QB position. Joe Flacco? Are you kidding me? The Ravens offense put up just 17 ppg last year and 12.3 ppg in the preseason and I don't feel that Joe Flacco will be the savior here. A low point of the preseason was in the 3rd game (the game where most starters play a lot more). In that game Baltimore lost to St Louis 24-10 and where outgained by 202 yards on the night. The offense or defense did not play all that well in that game. Carson Palmer is one of the top QB's in the league and he has a ton of weapons to go to. The Bengal Defense was a sore spot last year, but I see them have a big day vs a bad offense today. The Ravens have a rookie caoch, with a rookie QB and neither will get off to a winning start here as Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer find a way to win. Should be close but the Bengals will pull it out in the end.
I ALSO LIKE
New England/ Kansas City Under 44
1 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh/ Houston Over 43
With an OU line of 41-43 in Pittsburgh home games the Over is 8-1 since 2002. Im expecting some high scoring games with Houston this year as the Offense is good, but the defense is bad. Last year Houston games averaged 48 ppg overall and 47.5 ppg on the road. That road trend held true to form in the preseason as their 2 road games averaged 51.5 ppg. Last year the Steelers scored 21 or more points in all but 1 of their home games (including playoffs), as they averaged 25.6 ppg at the Ketchup Bottle. The Steeler offense didn't look that great in the preseason, but I feel they will find this soft Houston defense to their liking. I feel that both teams will get thier share of points and put about 48 points on the board.
I ALSO LIKEComment
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Re: 9-7-08
Bettors World
2* Houston Texans +7 -115 over Pittsburgh Steelers
In with the new and out with the old? Well, perhaps not. But you could say that this is a matchup of a team on the rise against a team that perhaps has peaked. Though we can't expect much of a decline from the Steelers this year. They return 19 of 22 starters from last years team which went 7-1 at home. The Texans on the other hand are in off an 8-8 year and expectations continue to grow. Gary Kubiak enters his 3rd year at the helm and we'd expect his scheme to start kicking in.In this day and age of NFL football, we see teams go from worst to first. Perhaps the fact that the Steelers made virtually no changes during the offseason is enough reason to believe the decline has started. Losing at home in the playoffs to the Jags last year may very well be the game pundits point to as the start of the decline. This weeks game may very well be a continuation.Early season handicapping can be tough. It really comes down to a handicappers ability to size up talent and off season moves. Not always an easy task. However, it's not the only tool available to bettors. The ability to read and interpret betting patterns is huge. In doing this successfully, you're actually able to take advantage of some extremely sharp players information and work, without necessarily ever knowing just what that info is. The lines on these week one games have been posted since mid July. There are some very sharp sportsbooks out there that cater to a heavily slanted wiseguy clientele. A couple don't even accept American action but the wiseguys all have ways into these books. In analyzing the betting patterns at these books and then taking a look at the betting trends publicly available to us at a book like Sportsbook.com, we see a game which the majority of the action coming in is on the Steelers and yet we see the line having moved from 7 to 6.5 and even 6 in spots. We're going to ride that trend here in week one. Texans +7 -115 for a small 2* play.
2* Titans +3 over Jags
The betting patterns described in the above game fit this game as well. But perhaps this ones easier to interpret. The Titans figure to be even better than they were a year ago going 10-6 and earning a trip to the playoffs. There was a 3 game stretch in November where they lost 3 in a row. Other than that, their other regular season losses were a 2 point loss to the Colts, a 3 point loss to the Bucs and an overtime loss to the Chargers. Fisher always has this team ready to play. Young has more weapons this year. The Jags have a world of off the field problems with the latest being the shooting of Richard Collier. An outright Titan win shouldn't surprise anyone. Titans +3Comment
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