9-7-08

[timbob]

Re: 9-7-08

Advantage Sports

#466 Buffalo Bills -1

#482 Oakland Raiders UNDER 41

The MNF writeup will follow on Sunday.

This game sets up extremely well for the Bills. They get to face a depleted Seattle team with little talent remaining from the offense of earlier this decade and injuries and suspensions taking more starters away for this long distance road game, covering three time zones and with a 10am Seattle time start, to boot. The Seahawks had to finish preseason with two games in five days and travel for a second straight time, but the bigger issue is that starting QB Hasselbeck has been limited with injury and he will be without his top wideouts in Branch and Engram. His WR core lacks experience and his OL is a shell of what it used to be. Defensively, the 'Hawks will be without two suspended key elements in Rocky Bernard and Jordan Babineaux from the secondary. They also have new athletes at TE, RB, WR and along to O-Line. Not having time to work these parts together in live game action will hurt.

The Buffalo Cover-2 defense will be in it's 3rd season and gets back some key personnel that were injured and missed most of last year (Posluzny, Simpson, Webster) and they have added some bulk to the defensive front in Marcus Stroud from Jacksonville. They also boast a tremendous special teams group, possibly the best in the league. Seattle doesn't see the Cover-2 in the NFC West and has not practiced against it. The Bills offense is pedestrian but RB Marshawn Lynch is a player and was rested through most of preseason. The Bills fans bought the 2nd most season tickets ever this year, over 56,000 and are anticipating a much improved team. Even without Jason Peter on the line, this team should control the line of scrimmage against the smaller and lighter Seahawk front seven. Their defense gave up over 230 rushing yards to Green Bay in the playoffs, setting up a template for the Bills running game. The Hawks have not made any improvements since that time.

Considering all the injuries that Buffalo had last year, they still covered the spread in every home game except the two against the Super Bowl participants, NE and the G-Men. This team plays hard for all 60 and has a strong home field, especially against the weaker conference (AFC home teams are 131-59 SU vs. the NFC since 2002). These two teams are heading in opposite directions, with a young and tough Bills group facing an aging Seattle team from the weakest division in the NFL... and that will be apparent today. I am not a huge believer in technical trends but they al favor Buffalo. Bills win the opener rather comfortably.
Buffalo 27, Seattle 13.

Best of Luck!

[timbob]

Re: 9-7-08

THE FOLLOWING ARE NEWSLETTER PLAYS !!



Kevin O’Neill The Max


Erik Scheponik NFL (0-0, 0%)
Jets (-3 –115) over @Dolphins


Dave Fobare NFL (0-0, 0%)
New England (-16½) over Kansas City




Kevin O’Neill NFL (0-0, 0%)
Texans (+6½) over @Steelers
Lions @Falcons under 41



Matty Baiungo NFL (0-0, 0%)
Eagles (- 7½) over Rams
Panthers (+9) over @Chargers






WRITE UPS BELOW:


Sunday, September 5th, 2008
Jets (-3 –115) over @Dolphins
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
I have played contrarian in the NFL for a long time.
I used to do very well by going against the public,
but the last couple of season that strategy has not
done so well. There simply has not been as much
parity in the NFL lately with some really good teams,
and some really bad ones. It also seems that the
NFL line is made to combat the so-called “sharps”
instead of the “squares” nowadays, at least more so
than any other sport. Now I know every square in
the world will be on my side here with the Brett
Favre-led Jets, but you know what…If ya can’t beat
‘em, join ‘em! I had New York pegged for
improvement this season before the Favre
acquisition based on an upgrade at offensive line
(second most important position on the field), and a
nice draft. Favre, of course, is a big upgrade, as he
can certainly still play. He has weapons to work
with, and a nice mix of veterans and young talent on
the offensive line to protect him and provide a
running game. He also has brought even more
energy to a team and a coach that never seem to
lack it, even during last year’s tough times.
Miami, on the other hand, is breaking in a lot of new
faces on both sides of the ball. Bill Parcells is in
charge of the personnel here, and the only way to
go is up off of last season’s 1-15 record. I expect
the learning curve to be a bit steep early on for all of
the youngsters, and while they may have a nice
running game with the Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown
combo, there just does not seem to be any other
positives. They will be playing defense without
Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas for the first time in a
while, and one has to wonder where the leadership
will come from. All 3 units on that side of the ball
are below average. They have won only 3 division
games the last 3 seasons, and only 1 of the last 8
matchups against these Jets (0-7-1 ATS). New York
whipped Miami on this field late last season 40-13,
and the Dolphins have only covered 1 home game
against New York in their last 10 tries.
The Jets are the much safer play here, and laying a
field goal at –115 is most likely much cheaper than
you will see on game day, as the public will probably
push this up. Just because our side may be the
popular side does not make it the wrong side, and
we can certainly bet it like a sharp laying as little
juice as possible on a very important number. NY
Jets by 7.





@New England (-16½) over Kansas City
Selection and analysis by Dave Fobare
It has become common handicapping wisdom to
fade the previous season's Super Bowl loser. That
would be the Patriots, who lost to the Giants 17-16
this past February. The betting public seems to
disagree, pushing this line up from the opener of -
14.5. This time I'll side with the public. Down the
stretch in 2007 the Patriots got old quickly. After 10
games they had outscored their opposition by a
mind-boggling 260 points. Outscoring your
opponents by that much over an entire season is
enough to make your mark in NFL history, let alone
ten games. But the team sputtered down the
stretch. In the Super Bowl the defense looked old
and slow. So Job One for New England in the
offseason was to get younger and more athletic on
defense. The 2008 defense will sport a rookie starter
at inside LB (Jerod Mayo), two rookies in the
defensive backfield - Terrence Wheatley (second
round) and Jonathan Wilhite (fourth round) and
2007 draft pick Brandon Meriweather.
In the Chiefs' camp there is no shortage of drama.
Much of it centers around Carl Peterson, who has
been the team's General Manager for 20 years. The
club is so rife with speculation that Peterson is on
the hot seat. Many within the organization have
chosen sides between the "Herm camp" and the
"Carl camp." That division stems from several
factors: reluctance on the part of the old guard led
by Peterson to commit to building the team through
the draft — the preference of coach Herm Edwards
— rather than free agency, and the survival instincts
of those who believe that Peterson does not have
owner Clark Hunt's full support. After last season's
4-12 mark Peterson finally acceded to the youth
movement. If the Chiefs' projected 22 offensive and
defensive starters seven are rookies or second-year
players. Another five - including starting quarterback
Brodie Croyle - are in their third year. Kansas City is
likely to experience more pain this season, but with
an eye to future prospects.
On the technical front I have a pair of Game 1
systems. The first has a mark of 31-15 ATS and
plays against road teams that do not enter the
regular season on a preseason roll. My best play is a
17-7 ATS Game 1 system that has gone 7-3 ATS
since I uncovered it several years ago. It has a
cover margin over 7 points per game and simply
plays on teams that had winning marks the prior
season facing certain poor teams. The Pats apply to
a system that is 5-0 ATS with an average score of
37-15. That subsection includes a pair of plays on
teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous season.
Those Super Bowl losers won in this spot by a
combined 57 points. The Chiefs may get better this
season, but it will take some time. Lay the wood.
New England by 23. Note: Hurricane Hanna could
possibly influence this game.





Texans (+6½) over @Steelers
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
How’s the selection of Mario Williams over Reggie
Bush looking now? Not bad at all. The Texans have
some good defensive talent, but Dunta Robinson will
be out until November (making it a full year) and
there’s not a lot of depth on that unit. This is a
situation worth monitoring, as it will become more
important as the year progresses. New England
castoff Roosevelt Colvin was cut, with his history of
injuries catching up with him. There are signs that
Houston is due to improve. They were –13 in
turnovers last season, but their first team had none
in the preseason. They’ve got great receivers. QB
Matt Schaub is highly thought of, and this needs to
be his year to step up. The running game should
improve considerably with zone blocking guru Alex
Gibbs coming out of retirement to coach that unit.
Gibbs has had surprisingly quick success at other
places he’s been. Rookie RB Steve Slaton ran
behind a zone blocking scheme at West Virginia and
though he is only a situational back, don’t be
surprised if he has a bigger year than people expect.
And if I’m Gary Kubiak, I’m running some screens to
Slaton in this one. The Steelers gambling, blitzing
defense can be exploited by such plays, and Slaton’s
blazing speed may do some damage. Like the
Texans lack of defensive depth, the Steelers age on
their defensive line will be an issue not today, but
later in the season, as 6 of 7 Steelers D-linemen will
be 30+ by the end of September. Speaking of not
getting younger, Charlie Batch is likely headed to the
IR and locker room problem Byron Leftwich will be
the backup. Steelers had just an OK preseason, as
heralded rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall from Illinois
had ball security issues, fumbling twice against the
Vikings in the preseason. Their offensive line has
some question marks and the special teams are
shaky as well.
Week one is always tough to call, but we have the
Texans, winners of 3 of their last 4 to finish 8-8 last
year, as a team ready move ahead a bit more this
season under their sharp third year coach. And we
have the Steelers age starting to catch up to them
just a little bit. We’ll take the points with a team on
our “possibly underrated” list against a club on our
“possibly overrated” list. Steelers by only 3.
Note: Hurricane Hanna could possibly influence this
game.




Lions @Falcons under 41
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The Falcons have a good running back in Michael
Turner, and a rookie quarterback in Matt Ryan.
Looking at their resumes, the offensive line is as
unimpressive as any in the league. Left offensive
tackle Sam Baker is a rookie out of USC. G Justin
Blaylock was ineffective when injuries pressed him
into duty his rookie season. G Harvey Dahl has
played in five games in his career. And these guys
are all starters. Ryan was interception-prone in
college. It stands to reason that we’ll be looking at
a steady dose of the running game. And not only
does it stand to reason, but if new Falcons coach
Mike Smith learned anything from Jack Del Rio in
Jacksonville, it was to run the ball, slow down the
game and play defense. That defense should be
better than the sum of its parts, and that projection
is based on the head coach being a defensive guy
who appears to be trying to turn the Falcons into
something resembling the Jaguars.
The Lions coach Rod Marinelli, is also a defensive
guy. And his final roster cutdowns make that
obvious. Incredibly, the Lions have 11 defensive
lineman on their roster. Clearly rotating in fresh
bodies will be a priority, and energetic defenders will
be And the Lions no longer are being led offensively
by the aerial circus ringmaster Mike Martz. Instead
look for them to run the ball. Last season Detroit
ran the ball 20 times per game. In the preseason
this year they ran the ball 31 times per game.
Granted it was only the preseason, and the team
went 4-0 so they were protecting the lead at times,
but there’s no question that there will be a bigger
focus on running the football in Detroit. With the
ball on the ground the clock will be running more
frequently.
So we have two teams led by defensive-minded
coaches who are trying to change a culture and
instill toughness, hard-nosed defense, and ball
control offense. Both offenses are learning new
systems, and along with a lot of running, are
unlikely to be at peak efficiency from the get go.
This number seems a bit high when you consider
the current realities of these teams. Go under the
total.




@Eagles (- 7½) over Rams
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
The Philadelphia Eagles fit the bill as the best teamnot to make the playoffs in 2007. They went only 8- 8, but five of those losses came by 4 points or less.
So expect a bounce back season and a return trip in 2008. Head coach Andy Reid was in a difficult situation heading into last year as he was dealing
with his sons’ legal troubles. And got to believe that had an effect on his overall coaching duties, but with that hopefully behind him, Reid can now devote
his full attention to the Eagles. They ended the season on a positive note by winning their last 3 games by a combined 65-38, and that momentum
will carry over and have the Eagles primed for a good effort in their opener. Philly should be much more consistent on offense
with Donovan McNabb back to full-strength, and he’s quite confident as well: "I felt good this preseason," McNabb said. "I've approached this
preseason differently because of my health. And because of my off-season training, I look forward to having a great season." And having his mobility
back is a major aid to his success because he adds another weapon to the Eagles running game. Philadelphia also upgraded their secondary by inking
shutdown cornerback Asante Samuel who will make a huge impact on the overall defense. The Rams hit rock bottom in 2007, going just 3-13
while scoring only 16 points per game. This team is a complete and utter mess heading into 2008. They have so many shortcomings on the offensive and defensive lines that they are bound to get manhandled at the line of scrimmage. And not only is the player personnel in a state of flux, but also the coaching staff. The Rams have six new coaches on board; the result of a desperation move by head coach Scott Linehan as he finds himself on the proverbial hot seat. NFC West teams struggle when traveling East, and it should be noted that St Louis went 0-3 straight-up and against the spread in this situation last year. They lost those games by a combined score of 65-16 for an average loss of 16.3 points per game. St Louis has their hands full here, and it looks like they’ll start 2008 like they ended 2007, with a blowout loss. Eagles by 14




Panthers (+9) over @Chargers
Selection and analysis by Matty Baiungo
It was a successful year for head coach Norv Turner after he guided the San Diego Chargers to 12 regular season wins and an upset win over the Colts
n the playoffs. But Turner does not rate high on my head coaching list. He went 58-82 in his seven prior years, which clearly shows he’s really not that good
of a coach. After opening the season at 1-3, the Chargers flipped the switch and they went 12-3 the rest of the way. San Diego crushed the spread by
covering 14 of 19 including their last nine straight. But even with the impressive numbers, the Chargers regressed on both sides of the ball, 42 yards on
offense and 21 yards on defense. They scored five points less per game while allowing one point less on defense. QB Philip Rivers enters 2008 with some
uncertainty after having surgery to repair his ACL. Tight-end Antonio Gates also went under the knife, repairing a major toe injury he suffered in the
playoffs. They also lost running back Michael Turner and fullback Lorenzo Neal, so the offense has some question marks which makes this line look a bit high,
especially out of the gate. John Fox is one heck of a coach, and if not for him, no way the Carolina Panthers win 7 games last year.
With 94-year old Vinny Testaverde at quarterback, and wide receiver Steve Smith missing games with Injury, the Panthers’ offense was downright pathetic
for the better part of the year. They scored 17 points or less in 10 games and that type of nonproduction simply doesn’t cut it. Jake Delhomme is
healthy (at least on the surface) after having Tommy John surgery, and with second-year offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson calling the plays,
look for Carolina’s offense to increase their scoring significantly. The defense slipped a bit, but they were hampered by injuries and struggled from being
on the field too long. They’ll snap-back as well, and get back to their formidable form. Word out of camp is that the Panthers linebacking corps can
potentially be one of the best in the league. And if that is true, they may be able to force the Chargers to go to more of a passing attack here, which is
something we’d welcome with Rivers and Gates coming back from surgery. Carolina has been a ferocious dog under Fox going 31-15 to the number
when getting points, so we’ll grab the generous spot with a team who underachieved last year.
Chargers by only 3.





THE SPORTS MEMO





ERIN RYNNING
SEATTLE AT BUFFALO PK

Recommendation: Bills

The NFL season kicks off in Buffalo with an early wake-up call for the Seahawks.
The Bills certainly fit the label of an up and coming team in the ranks of the NFL after fighting their way to a 7-9 record in 2007. There were a couple games that slipped away from the Bills, including one-point heartbreaking
losses to Dallas and Denver. Finally, it looks as if this young team is making strides with experience and their defense is primed to take a big step forward. In the offseason, the Bills added Marcus Stroud to man the middle of what has been a porous run defense, while adding Kawika Mitchell
at linebacker. In addition, last year’s first round rookie Paul Posluszny is healthy after missing the bulk of last season. With the defense upgraded, the offense looking to make strides in the red zone and arguably the best special
teams in the NFL, the Bills are live when we ask them to win on their home turf. Meanwhile, Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who rarely played in the preseason, will lead a banged up offense to start the season. Look for the Bills to turn the tables and nail a victory in their home opener.



ROB VENO
HOUSTON AT PITTSBURGH -6.5

Recommendation: Over

There figures to be an overwhelming amount of firepower on the field in this one as each side has explosiveness that the defenses will have trouble stopping.
Houston’s woes on pass defense create a solid advantage for the Steelers,
who can exploit them with emerging deep threat Santonio Holmes and their strong group of receivers. The Texans will attempt to apply pressure with their defensive front led by sack artist DE Mario Williams but Pittsburgh has more than enough capability on the ground and in the quick passing game to keep them honest. For Houston, QB Matt Schaub’s accuracy should allow him to carve up a questionable Steelers secondary. The Texans’ receiving corps, with home run hitting WR Andre Johnson and sure handed complement Kevin Walter, are dangerous threats as is TE Owen Daniels. Look for the ball to be moved through the air consistently all game long as neither side has the pass rush or secondary to prevent it. The Steelers seem to always open it up more offensively at home and expect Ben Roethlisberger to post solid numbers.
The Scoreboard changes rapidly in this one which is likely to total 50+.





MARTY OTTO

SEATTLE AT BUFFALO PK

Recommendation: Bills

The Seahawks are a team heading in the opposite direction of Buffalo with aging
veterans and a lame duck head coach. Fundamentally, I have a ton of question
marks for Seattle and at the forefront of those questions is the receiving corps. DJ Hackett was dealt in the offseason leaving Deion Branch (injured), Bobby Engram (injured) and Ben Obamanu (IR) as its main targets. Only Nate Burleson is healthy enough to make an impact and I’m not willing to bet on Burleson showing up in the clutch at all. The offensive line was no good last year and neither was the ground game and both areas leave me with more questions than answers even with the addition of TJ Duckett, Julius Jones and Justin Forsett. Buffalo’s defense looks much improved with the additions of Marcus Stroud and Kawika Mitchell to help the front seven lock down the run and the Bills’ secondary, with so many high level draft picks and talent to burn, is finally healthy. Trent Edwards can manage a game, Marshawn Lynch can chew away the clock and Lee Evans can still be a gamebreaker. Throw in the best all around special teams in the NFL and Buffalo is the clear choice at home.




TEDDY COVERS ** TEDDY COVERS KICKED MAJOR ASS LAST YEAT ON HIS NEWSLETTER PLAYS -- SOMETHING LIKE 15-5


DETROIT -3 AT ATLANTA

Recommendation: Lions

Detroit is 8-48 SU on the road over the last seven seasons, including a 0-3 mark as road chalk. The Lions certainly aren’t a team that most bettors are interested in putting their money on as a road favorite in Week 1, giving us the value we need to pull the trigger here. This is a confident team once again, following their 4-0 preseason. Remember, the Lions started out the 2007 campaign with a 6-2 mark (including road wins at Oakland and Chicago) before their season collapsed. Both their offensive line and their defense have been upgraded, and with Mike Martz out of the picture, look for talented receivers Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams to flourish. Detroit has come out of the gate strong in each of Rod Marinelli’s previous two opening games. They’ll be facing a rebuilt Falcons
squad coming off a truly dismal 4-12 season, breaking in a new coach, new systems on both sides of the football, and a rookie quarterback making
his NFL debut. The Falcons are on a 4-16 ATS run as home underdogs dating
back to the Jim Mora Jr. era. Don’t expect that trend to end here – these are two teams headed in opposite directions, making this price rather cheap.









BRENT CROW - NFL OUTLOOK

One thing that I have learned over the years is to not take the preseason
results very seriously when it comes to the regular season. Obviously, preseason wins are not important in the NFL, as demonstrated
by the Indianapolis Colts. They have the worst preseason record in the NFL over the past three years, yet also have the best regular season record. They were terrible again this year at 1-4, but no one expects them to falter over the next 17 weeks.


There are some things that can be gleaned from the preseason that will carry over into the regular season, however, and I will share some of the notes I made from watching this year’s exhibition games. Among the teams that are not expected to be playoff bound, I was most impressed with the Buffalo Bills’ overall talent level. Buffalo had numerous injuries last year and still was able to remain competitive in most games. A solid draft and the return to health of several starters
should result in a team capable of making the playoffs this season. They were fast and deep on defense in the preseason and have some playmakers on offense as well. In addition, it seems like Trent Edwards and JP Losman have made strides at quarterback, so they should be ok if Edwards gets hurt.



Another team that showed lots of depth was the Carolina Panthers, who like the Bills, suffered through an injury-plagued 2007 season. Carolina played without a full deck at wide receiver for most of the preseason, yet still had some solid performances on offense. Included was the most dominant game of the entire preseason; their 47-3 win over Washington in week three. The running back tandem of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will take some pressure off of quarterback Jake Delhomme and the passing game. The additions of receivers Muhsin Muhammad and DJ Hackett and rookie offensive tackle Jeff Otah will help Delhomme and Steve Smith as well.


On the other end of the spectrum, if the preseason is any indication, points are going to be hard to come by in Baltimore, St. Louis, Kansas City and Oakland. The Ravens’ quarterback situation is the worst in the league with Kyle Boller injured and Troy Smith or Joe Flacco looking like the starter. Throw in one of the worst receiving corps in the league and the retirement of tackle Jonathan Ogden and the Ravens have solidified their hold on the title of worst offense in the NFL. St. Louis is in better shape at quarterback with Marc Bulger, but the offensive line is a trouble spot and there is no speed outside.


Steven Jackson missed the entire preseason with a successful holdout, but the Rams may not get the numbers they are used to from Jackson. Kansas City was also putrid on offense this preseason, as the only success for the first-stringers came in the last week against the Rams’ backup defenders. Brodie Croyle has struggled in his time in the NFL at quarterback, but he really has just one legit wideout in Dwayne Bowe. I think the Chiefs will be better than they showed in the preseason, but not by much.


Oakland is another team that didn’t do much on offense in the preseason, but have more talent than the teams listed above on that side of the ball. Their preseason seemed to have less of a game plan than any other team as Lane Kiffin worked on different things without regard to the situation. He didn’t kick the ball one game, then passed on every down in another. In the final game, he sat all of his starters to avoid further injury. All in all, we never really saw what the Raiders are going to be like in the regular season. One thing is certain, running back Darren McFadden is the real deal and will have a huge impact. If Jamarcus Russell becomes a legit NFL quarterback, they will have a solid offense.






FAIRWAY J - PERCEPTIN vs REALITY


Fairway’s Followers may recall season’s past when I provided some college football writeups that featured analysis called “Perception vs. Reality”. The public will often perceive a strong football program to be superior, or a team to play to a higher level of its most recent score. The reality is often quite different. It’s a good way to analyze a game from a public perception and line value standpoint while recognizing the reality of the situation and provide statistical support.
We’ve netted plenty of profits on these plays in last year’s Sportsmemo Newsletter, posting a 9-4 record with mostly college plays. We’ll chip-in and kickoff this season with an NFL forecast.


CINCINNATI -1 at BALTIMORE O/U 39

Perception - Two AFC North teams clash in week one and revenge-minded handicappers will note that the Ravens lost both contests to the Bengals last season. They’ll also point out the stronger Ravens’ defense that ranked sixth in total yards allowed. The Bengals’ defense has been poor and ranked in the bottom quartile of the league for five consecutive seasons. Cincinnati also suffered a number of injuries in the preseason, including WR Chad Johnson (shoulder) and QB Carson Palmer (broken nose). The talent rich Cincinnati offense was sub-par in the preseason, and there are perceived problems along the offensive line following their lackluster performances. Unproven running back Chris Perry takes over for Rudi Johnson (waived), but will that help the Bengals’ first-team offense that failed to score a point in its last 10 preseason
possessions through games two and three?


Reality - The Ravens are entering the regular season with more questions than when they began training camp. This looks like a challenging season for new head coach John Harbaugh, who will likely endure some early struggles with a new offensive coordinator and system along with inexperienced quarterbacks. Baltimore was a three-point home underdog to Cincinnati last season, and they were beaten soundly, 21-7. In fact, the Ravens scored in the final two minutes to avoid the shutout while the Bengals had seven trips inside the red zone and settled for seven field goals. Cincinnati features far superior talent on offense with a huge mismatch at quarterback between Carson Palmer and either Troy Smith or rookie Joe Flacco. Smith has not practiced in a week due to illness, and neither quarterback is equipped or has the poise or presence to be an effective NFL quarterback just yet. Baltimore was a league worst 3-13 ATS and minus (-17) in turnover differential last season, and the Bengals are 29-4 SU under head coach Marvin Lewis when they win the turnover battle. Baltimore’s frequent blitzes could be burned badly, as they featured the league’s No. 30 pass defense last year and a scoring defense that was second-worst in the AFC in yards per point. All-Pro safety Ed Reed is out with a nerve injury in his neck, and the Ravens’ defensive line is banged-up and thin. Baltimore’s perceived strength on defense is now a group of aging veterans that are not nearly as strong as recent editions. Cincinnati is a road favorite for a reason, and securing the win means a point spread cover.








Pointwise


Key Selections are graded 1 to 4, with 1 being the highest rating. "5" rated games are considered "best of the rest"

NFL Selections
3--PHILADELPHIA over St. Louis 27-16
4--ny jets over MIAMI 27-16
4--INDIANAPOLIS over Chicago 27-13
5--ATLANTA (+) over Detroit 27-26
5--Houston (+) over PITTSBURGH 26-24







New York Jets 27 - MIAMI 16 - (1:00) -- The era of Brett begins anew with the
Jets, for however short it logically figures to be. He, of course, brings a much
needed winning attitude, with such targets as Coles & Cotchery available. The
Jets' offensive line is improved, as is NY's defense. So things looking up for
the faithful. Dolphs have dropped 18-of-19 SU, & failed to reach 18 pts in 9
games LY, but Pennington is a huge plus at QB for new coach Sparano. The
Jets are 9-1 ATS in their last 9 trips to Miami, as well as 8-2-1 in ROs. Dolphs
shocked Denver, 34-10 in Saban's debut 2 years ago, but not about to repeat.




Houston 26 - PITTSBURGH 24 - (1:00) -- It may seem daffy in bucking Pitt in
this situation. Afterall, Roethlisberger is in off a team record 32 TD passes
with only 11 picks, & the Steelers finished 1st in the NFL, defensively. But age
& loss of LG Faneca to the Jets, taking a toll on the "O" line (allowed 47 sacks
LY). The Texans improved to 8-8 LY, & are no doubt a coming power, especially
with a healthy Schaub at QB. The "O" line is improved, with coach Gibbs
coming over from Denver. Steelers just 5-10 ATS in HOs. Note that Kubiak
was OC for the Broncos, when they won the '97 AFC title game at Pittsburgh.




ATLANTA 27 - Detroit 26 - (1:00) -- Yes, we are aware of the fact that the Lions
opened the '07 season with a 36-21 road whipping of the Raiders, but this isn't
a role that Detroit cherishes, namely a RF. Check an 0-6 ATS log as RF of <4
pts. Lions also just 14-25 as non-division chalks. Falcons welcome new HC
Mike Smith from J'Ville, as well as new franchise QB Matt Ryan. Lions can
move it with bevy of talented receivers (Johnson, Williams, etc), but finished
with worst "D" in NFL year ago, allowing 35.3 ppg in final 6 games. Mild upset.





PHILADELPHIA 27 - St Louis 16 - (1:00) -- That once vaunted Ram offense has
slipped by the year, ranking a lowly 24th in '07, with little improvement, despite
some notable "O" talent, such as RB Jackson. The "O" line is hardly among
the elites, altho DE Long should bolster its "D". The Eagles are relying less on
McNabb, which has to be a plus, & its "D" should put the clamps on the aging
Rams. StLouis just 3-12 ATS lately, & 11-28 ATS on the non-division road.
Eags 7-1-1 ATS in the series, altho the visitor is 10-1-1 ATS in Philly tilts lately.




INDIANAPOLIS 27 - Chicago 13 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Rematch of '06 Super Bowl,
which wasn't as close as the 29-17 final. Bears now going with Orton over
Grossman. It was just a matter of time. But the departure of Benson, Berriman,
& Muhammad sure doesn't make matters easier for the Chicago "O", despite
moving Hester to WR. The Colts, believe it or not, finished as the 15th rated
"O" team a year ago, so improvement is a must, with the return of Harrison of
utmost importance. The Bears are just 5-10 vs the AFC, while Indy is a paltry
15-22 ATS play as Sept host, but 19-9 overall in Sept, & 15-5 fav vs the NFC.









Northcoast Power Sweep:

4* Carolina + 20-21
3* Jax Under
2* Houston + 24-26
2* NYG 27-13

3* Cowboya Under 49
3* Bengals Under 39
2* Carolina Over 41
2* Texans Over 44

PRO ANGLE PLAYS


4-BUFFALO
4-CINCINNATI
3-NY JETS



4* Carolina (+) over SAN DIEGO - SD comes into the season as the runaway favorite for the AFC West while CAR, behind a healthy Delhomme, is expected to mount a serious challenge in the NFC South. SD is 6-0 ATS as a HF of 7+ while CAR is 18-9-2 ATS as an AD. CAR susp Steve Smith the 1st 2 games & the WR is struggling w/injs. CAR is returning to a power rushing attack & upgraded the OL with a new face at each spot. They showed just how serious they are in the preseason as CAR posted 107 rush att’s (4.8) in the first 3 preseason games. LY before his elbow injury Delhomme avg’d 308
ypg (64%) with an 8-1 ratio & CAR scored 27, 21 & 27 pts. From 2004-2006 SD was in the top 3 for rush def & allowed just 16 100 yd games but LY teams spread the defense out & SD allowed 7 100+ yd games. SD allowed 102 yds rushing on STL 1st 16 rush att’s & looked sloppy vs SEA with 162 yds (5.1). SD is also dealing w/injs as C Hardwick (knee) is out & LT McNeil (stinger) didn’t practice at all in preseason. Rivers is just 7 months removed from having his ACL replaced & TE Gates is only at 85%. While Tomlinson will get his yards here, CAR has shifted its defensive strength to the back 7 &
look for Peppers to announce his return here.
FORECAST: Carolina 20 (+) SAN DIEGO 21



3* Jaguars/Titans: UNDER - The Titans upset the Jags 13-10 as a 7 pt AD by playing the Jags’ type of smashmouth football (282-75 rush edge) in the 2007 season opener. In the 2nd meeting JAX beat TEN 28-13 as a 4.5 pt AD in their 3rd straight road game & were without Garrard for the 3rd straight game. TEN turned the ball over 3 times & were SOD twice deep in JAX territory. TEN has some major questions concerning their passing game as their WR’s couldn’t gain separation in the preseason in
returning OC Heimerdinger’s offense. QB Young only tallied 150 yds (50%) with an 0-1 ratio vs an ATL team whose secondary looks to be worse than LY’s #23 ranking. JAX also has issues with its WR unit as big FA signing Jerry Porter has missed virtually all of TC with a torn hamstring, slot WR Northcutt (44 rec 13.7 LY) is the #1 WR & the #2 option is either troubled Matt Jones (24 rec 13.2 LY) or Reggie Williams (38 rec 16.6 LY) who has missed most of TC with a right knee inj. Both teams rely on powerful ground oriented offenses & with neither team having a dropoff in their defenses (JAX #12 TEN #5 LY) this should be a physical, hard fought lower scoring game. TEN is a strong HD (7-1 ATS) with a solid crowd & the Under is the play.
FORECAST: Jaguars/Titans: UNDER THE TOTAL



OTHER SELECTIONS
2* Houston (+) over PITTSBURGH - While this is the 1st meeting since PIT beat HOU 27-7 as a 4.5 pt AF in 2005 the Steelers have faced a similar type of offense the L2Y vs DEN. PIT is, however, 0-2 SU & ATS vs a Kubiak-oriented offense. PIT is 8-4 ATS as a non-div HF while HOU is 3-6 ATS as an AD. HOU matches up well with their talented 4-3 DL in its 2nd season together featuring DE Mario Williams (14 sacks LY) vs
an OL that allowed Roethlisberger to get sacked 47 times LY. While PIT had the #3 pass def LY HOU only had Schaub & WR Johnson together for 4 full games (3-1 SU & ATS w/24-15 avg score). In those, Schaub passed for 250 ypg (66.4%) with a 7-3 ratio & Johnson had 23 rec (18.2). PIT has a big edge with their #3 run game from LY reinforced by Mendenhall vs a HOU team that still lacks a solid feature back to balance out the offense. Look for this to be a higher scoring affair as both teams are pass oriented with quality receiving targets. We are aware that HOU had 6 road losses by a 16 ppg margin LY but that was without their QB/WR tandem, lack of depth at RB & a beaten up secondary. HOU is our 1st NFL “Ugly Dog” Play for 2008 which is currently at 17-8 (68%). FORECAST: Houston 24 (+) PITTSBURGH 26




FOR THE REST OF THE WRITE - UPS:

zSHARE - psv13i02.pdf









GOLD SHEET - KEY RELEASES


Pro's

Buffalo by 10 over Seattle
Tampa Bay by 7 over New Orleans
Under the Total in the Detroit-Atlanta game





Winning Points


****BEST BET
Houston over *Pittsburgh by 7
Don’t look at Houston anymore as some struggling expansion team. Gary
Kubiak has the Texans headed in the right direction. Anything short of a
winning record is a disappointment for the Texans now. Houston is a highly-
improved squad that needs to prove it can win on the road. This is a
matchup the Texans are really targeting. Oddsmakers haven’t caught up to
just how improved the Texans are yet.The oddsmaker is giving Pittsburgh
a lot of respect because the Steelers still have a mystique, especially when
playing at home. But the Steelers aren’t close to being an elite team anymore.
All of this makes the Texans a great value play.Texans QB Matt Schaub
was sharp during preseason. He has a deep wide receiving group featuring
Andre Johnson, one of the five best wideouts in the league. Johnson is
healthy after missing seven games with a knee injury last season. The
Texans went 6-3 in the games Johnson played in last season. Johnson is a
huge difference-maker, but doesn’t get a lot of media attention because the
Texans rarely are in the national spotlight.The Texans brought in offensive
line guru Alex Gibbs so expect an improved running attack. Rookie Steve
Slaton could be special. Houston’s players are more comfortable with
Kubiak’s system now, this being their third year in it. Mario Williams gives
the Texans a dangerous pass rusher.Kubiak has upgraded his secondary.The
Steelers are going through a transition phase with a revamped offensive
line. Losing Pro Bowl guard Alan Faneca really hurts, both from a talent and
leadership standpoint. This showed during preseason when the Steelers
had trouble putting up touchdowns.Williams can make life miserable for
Ben Roethlisberger, who isn’t very mobile. HOUSTON 24-17.



***BEST BET
Carolina over *San Diego by 4
It wouldn’t surprise if the Chargers maki it to the Super Bowl.Yet as good
as the Chargers are they could be vulnerable in this matchup, caught taking
Carolina too lightly at home. There’s a cluster injury problem for San
Diego at linebacker, with inside linebacker Stephen Cooper suspended and
star pass-rusher and top defensive player Shawne Merriman hobbling from
a serious knee injury.The injury bug extends to the other side of the ball,
too, with center Nick Hardwick probably out with a foot injury and star
tight end Antonio Gates still bothered by last season’s lingering toe injury.
Gates isn’t nearly the feared deep threat when he’s not up to full speed.
Carolina won’t have its best wide receiver. Steve Smith is suspended. But
the Panthers are a smash-mouth team first under John Fox, the best underdog
coach in the NFL.The Panthers have covered 66 percent of the time
when taking points under Fox. Carolina has two good running backs,
DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart, plus Jake Delhomme is
back under center after missing most of last season due to an elbow injury.
The Panthers are a much better team when Delhomme is taking snaps. He
had thrown eight touchdown passes with only one interception last year
before suffering his season-ending injury during Week 3. Carolina is 22-5
ATS as an underdog when Delhomme is its quarterback. Pro Bowl defensive
end Julius Peppers had an off-year in 2007. He’s in a contract year and
had a huge preseason.Peppers could be a real thorn in the side of Chargers
QB Philip Rivers, who had off-season knee surgery.The combination of Fox
in an underdog role, Delhomme and Peppers looking like the Peppers of
pre-2007 makes Carolina a real live ‘dog. CAROLINA 23-19.








Power Plays 4* Selections


NFL:
4* Giants / Redskins OVER - LOST
4* New England
4* Arizona / San Francisco OVER








Red Sheet


BUFFALO 23 - Seattle 17 - (1:00) -- Line opened at pick-em, & is now Buffalo minus 1. Obviously, if this one is decided by the QB position, it would be a no-brainer with the Seahawks in a walk, as Hasselbeck has the edge over Edwards (altho neither is in the best of health). But the Bills are a comer, & have the dominating back in Lynch, who ran for 1,115 yds & 7 TDs in his rookie season, & the Bills have added LB Mitchell & DT Stroud to a defense which held 4 of its final 5 foes to 17 pts or less. At home, the Bills failed only twice ATS last year. Those teams? Try the Super Bowl Patriots & Giants. Host in Seattle contests is golden.
RATING: BUFFALO BILLS 88








The Sports Reporter


SUPER BEST BET
*BUFFALO over SEATTLE by 21
Obomanu is out of the race!…to be the Seahawks’ go-to receiver in this game. The inexperienced guy was the #1 candidate among a young group of Seattle wideouts being called upon to pick up the slack in the absence of injured veterans Bobby Engram and Deion Branch. We’ve always insisted that wide receivers are the easiest to lose, plug in, and move forward with. However, considering the transition occurring on Seattle’s offensive line, at running back and at tight end, Engram stood as one of the ‘’sure things’’ for a revamped unit. Where does this leave the Seattle offense other than up the Erie Canal without a paddle, in a game they can afford to lose as long as they get ’er done vs. NFC West rivals coming up in Weeks 2 and 3? Matt Hasselbeck played in only one pre-season game at quarterback, wasn’t practicing with his usual receivers, won’t be playing with ‘em, either. To add to the degree of difficulty, the opposing Bills are in the third season of a gradual transition to a Cover-2 defense, which has a history of stopping West Coast offenses like Seattle’s. Defensive linemen provide all the pressure, reducing the need for blitzes. When the front four play its gaps correctly, they clog up running lanes and force the running backs to run outside (not where Julius Jones excels), where the corners, linebackers, and safeties all help. If Seattle’s defense was ever meant to bail them out here, the one-game suspensions to starting defensive back Rocky Bernard and nickel back Jordan Babineaux just made that task harder as the Marshawn Lynch-powered running game triggers an upsiding Bills’ offense. BUFFALO, 30-9.



BEST BET
*TENNESSEE over JACKSONVILLE by 9
The Titans embarrassed the Jaguars last season, running all over their defensive line for over 300 yards and ultimately motivating the Jacksonville defense to get their act together. Despite an incredibly successful regular season and a better than usual showing in the playoffs, the Jaguars made wholesale changes to their defensive line, including the drafting of Derrick Harvey in the first round and finally signing him to a slot-level contract a few days ago. With Fred Taylor getting arrested for disorderly conduct a few nights ago (just what you want from a “veteran leader,” right?) and the Jaguars seemingly sharing in the over-inflated sense of self that many elite level teams succumb to, there’s good reason to think that Jeff Fisher and his conservative, but successful, ground-based attack will once again stymie an overconfident Jaguars squad who must adapt to a new defensive coordinator. That didn’t work out too well for, say, the NY Giants against a mobile QB and a strong offensive line when the Giants faced a division rival in last year’s opener, did it? Jags might be behind a similar 8-ball. TENNESSEE 29-20.



BEST BET
DALLAS over *CLEVELAND by 17
Why did Wade Phillips hire Cleveland’s three-season defensive coordinator Todd Grantham away from the Browns prior to this season? Could it be that he knows that the NFC East games have a good chance to be 3-3, and that he is attempting to secure an edge in the four non-conference games against the AFC North? Hey, after Arizona’s new coaching staff came over from Pittsburgh last year, the Cardinals – the Cardinals, mind you – eventually went 4-0 ATS vs. AFC North opponents. So, there you have a little unseen potential for Dallas, on top of all the offensive firepower that everybody knows about. Grantham oversaw a 3-4 defense in Cleveland, the same style that the Cowboys have been attempting to become better at playing since Phillips arrived. He knows where the many holes are in Cleveland’s front – new DT Shaun Rogers notwithstanding – and Dallas’ big offensive line is good at creating holes on its own to begin with. Adam Jones
in Dallas’ secondary, and on punt returns, has the potential to create instant momentum swings for the Cowboys. If they didn’t already know who Derek Anderson was after the nice things Cleveland’s offense did last season, then the Cowboys know it now with Grantham there to help attack the immobile young dude while Romo is dancing around and keeping the Browns off balance. The Browns were 7-1 SU on this field, 12-3-1 ATS overall last year. Big whoopity whoop. It’s not last year. DALLAS, 27-10.


RECOMMENDED
HOUSTON over *PITTSBURGH by 3
Without inferior showings across the board against their AFC South rivals, the Houston Texans could have been a playoff level team. Achieving an 8-8 record, despite their poor divisional play and overreliance on Sage Rosenfels, shows just how far the Texans have come under Gary Kubiak. Houston is clearly a team on the rise and only injuries will slow their ascent. Meanwhile, the Steelers are a team that has yet to prove themselves to be as good as they can be with Mike Tomlin as head coach instead of Bill Cowher. After a
dominating start to the season, the Steelers petered out as the schedule progressed and made very little changes in the off-season to make you think that they can gear up for another extended playoff push. Their o-line might be a little down, while Houston’s d-line might be on the rise. Expect the unexpected, as the Texans take advantage of balmy weather in Pittsburgh to exact an upset. HOUSTON 20-17.





RECOMMENDED TOTAL
UNDER 41.5
DENVER at OAKLAND
We all know Mike Shanahan has long held an axe to grind against Al Davis’ skull for past transgressions, but does his team have the personnel to fulfill his blood grudge against the silver and black? Oakland experienced yet another offseason full of turmoil, but unquestionably upgraded their team. Coach Lane Kiffin finds himself with nothing to lose, knowing that if he is fired he will collect the full balance remaining on his contract – giving him the rare freedom to do as he pleases without fear of reprisal. That might mean the traditionally high-flying Raiders run the ball more than most teams in the NFL, featuring great depth at running back, including top draft pick Darren McFadden – this year’s version of Adrian Peterson. Denver is hoping to unveil a high-flying aerial attack to complement shaky depth at running back, but will be held back in the first game due to Brandon Marshall’s suspension and an improved Raiders’ secondary. Will any of Denver’s slow-footed back-up receivers be able to find room to manuever against Nnamdi Asomugha and DeAngelo Hall? Look for a game decided on the ground and by the respective defenses. DENVER, 16-13








Marc Lawrence Playbook

3 Star
Bengals
Steelers over

4 Star

Browns
Eagles under


5 Star

Titans
49ers under




3* BEST BET
We’ve got the Bengals tabbed as a ‘play on’ squad in 2008 and for all
the right reasons. For openers this is the same team that was picked
to win the AFC Central division a year ago. While they underachieved
(surprise!), the fact is they were the only team in the NFL to improve
BOTH their offensive and defensive yardage stats yet decline both SU
and ATS last season. Teams fi tting this mold have always proved to be
an improved commodity the following year. With Marvin Lewis sitting
squarely on the proverbial hot seat, look for a more focused effort from
the Striped Cats this season. New Ravens head coach John Harbaugh
can’t be sleeping well with his offensive line in disarray and the defense
getting long in the tooth these days. All that being said, look for Game
One NFL dogs (or picks) that lost their fi nal pre-season game by a single
point to drop to 1-14 SU and 2-13 ATS here today when Cincy improves
its mark to 7-1 ATS in this series.
Cincinnati over BALTIMORE by 10




4* BEST BET
Highly touted Brownies crumbled this preseason when they failed to win
a single game. As a result the luster has diminished as the oddsmaker
has installed them as a home dog in their lidlifter. According to our
database that’s a mistake. It seems teams that were winless in practice
games are 11-5 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points in season openers,
including 8-0 since 1999. Furthermore, teams in Game One of the NFL
season that managed to win 13 or more game the previous season are
just 12-25 ATS if they open on the non-division road, including 5-13
SU and ATS when tackling a 10-win opponent. Pro Bowl QB Derek
Anderson has been cleared to play for Cleveland. Pro Bowl targets
Braylon Edwards (WR) and Kellen Winslow (TE) are a happy, healthy
tandem and Browns’ boss Romeo Crennel is rock-solid in non-division
battles (19-10-1, including 5-1-1 in fi rst four games of the season).
The Browns’ 22-1 ATS mark in games in which they score 24 or more
points ties nicely into the fact that Wade Phillips’ teams have allowed
an average of 25 ppg in their last 13 road contests. With that, look for
Dallas to drop to 12-23 ATS in their last 25 tries as road chalk today in
this Dawg Pound dandy.
CLEVELAND over Dallas by 10



5* BEST BET
First things, fi rst. We admit we’re fond of NFL home dogs that were in
the playoffs the previous season. They play with passion and a purpose.
This particular one happens to be one of three underdogs on today’s
card (Tampa Bay and Washington the others) that actually improved
their stats on both sides of the ball last season. On the other side of
the coin, the Jaguars went from 8 wins in 2006 to 12 wins last season
despite a defense that declined 36 ypg. We don’t like those numbers.
We also don’t like the fact the favorite is just 2-7 ATS in this series.
We do like Vince Young’s glittering 18-12 SU and ATS mark in his NFL
career starts, including 10-2 ATS in division duke-outs. The combination
of both head coaches’ pointspread personalities (Jack Del Rio 5-9 as a
division favorite, including 0-4 when favored less than 4 points, and
Jeff Fisher 38-19 (35-22 SU) as a dog of less than 5 points) cements it.
Titans jolt Jags.








CKO


10* Phi-NFL
9*' Tenn
Totals...Hou/Pitt ov...Minn/GB un








5-1 SO FAR -- BUT IN COLLEGE !!


SportsInsights


NFL WEEK 1

.

NFL Week 1 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch

.

471 Dallas Cowboys vs Cleveland Browns

This is the most “lopsided-bet” game of the weekend. The public is betting this game like they know the score. The Dallas Cowboys were one of the best teams last year and are one of the Superbowl favorites this year.

While we agree that the Cowboys are once again “America’s Team” – we’re against the preseason hype surrounding the Cowboys. The hype is potentially creating an over-valuation on the Cowboys. This week’s NFL betting data confirms that the public loves “America’s team.” In this week’s game, Dallas is collecting almost five out of every six bets versus Cleveland.

The line opened at Dallas -3 but the avalanche of bets on Dallas has moved the line all the way to Dallas -6. That is a huge 3 point value. In the NFL, a field goal is a solid value. We’re taking the +6 offering at Sportsbook or SIA, looking for the Browns to keep it close.

Cleveland Browns +6 (Sports Interaction)




455 New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

There is heavy one-sided action on the New York Jets -3. The Jets are receiving about 80% of all bets placed on this game. The Public has been swayed by the “Summer of Favre” media frenzy – and the memory of the Dolphins compiling a 1-15 season in 2007.

Let’s not forget that the Jets (4-12) only scored one more point last season than the one-win Dolphins, who were without their top two running backs (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams) for the majority of the season. In addition, Brett Favre still doesn’t have a full grasp of the Jets’ playbook, which will limit what plays the coaches can call.

We love the value in the Home Dog value in getting Miami +3, plus the fact that despite heavy one way action on the Jets, the line hasn’t moved. This is an excellent indicator that the Sharp money is on Miami +3. Our readers know that we always follow the Sharp money!

Miami Dolphins +3 (BetUS)




479 Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

Monday Night Football has the Favre-less Green Bay Packers at home versus the Minnesota Vikings. You would think that “the solid Packer playoff team” from last year lost half of their team in addition to their aging star, Brett Favre.

The visiting Minnesota Vikings are collecting about 70% of the bets. All of this public money has pushed the “number” off of the huge key number of 3. There is good value in getting Green Bay -2 at home. We’ll “bet against the public” and grab this contrarian value.

Green Bay Packers -2

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 1.

Games to Watch (0-0-0)
Cleveland Browns +6 (Sports Interaction)
Miami Dolphins +3 (BetUS)
Green Bay Packers -2

[timbob]

Re: 9-7-08

Old Ball Coach Picks

Carolina +9
New Orleans -3.5

3-0 Saturday
Wins on Temple +6.5
Rice +3
Mississippi +7

[timbob]

Re: 9-7-08

Cajun-Sports

Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills
Prediction: 2* Buffalo Bills -1

Seattle travels to the East Coast to begin the 2008 NFL season and they are 1-7 ATS in this situation their last 8. Seattle is also 2-10 ATS their last 12 on the highway overall.

Not only do the Seahawks have to travel across the country they also played two games in five days to wrap up the preseason. Seattle finds themselves in a tough spot to start the new season.

Buffalo made improvements on their defensive front by adding DT Stroud; they also return LB Posluszny and FS Simpson after losing them early in the 07 season. A much improved defensive team to go along with one of the best special team units in the league should make a difference for this Bills team this season.

On offense the Bills have second year QB Trent Edwards to go along with RB Marshawn Lynch who rushed for 1,115 yards last season. Edwards and Lynch became the first rookie QB/RB tandem to have 1,000 yards passing and rushing since the merger in 1970.

Seattle played a weak schedule last season and was exposed in the playoffs by the Packers. The Bills were absent from the playoffs but faced a much tougher schedule and they should be ready to get the win here.

From a technical standpoint we know NFC West teams are 21-41-1 ATS on the road in non-division play over the last three seasons. We also note that the Seahawks are 15-26-1 ATS against the AFC East Division which includes a record of 4-17 ATS as a favorite or underdog of two or less points. Finally we dig a little deeper into Seattle’s struggles when facing this division and we see they are a perfect 0-11 ATS their last 11 in this role.

Finally we have an NFL Super System that says to:

Play ON a non-Saturday team (not a favorite of more than 5 points or underdog of more than 15 points) before a non-Monday game at Jacksonville.
17-0 ATS since 2002

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* BUFFALO BILLS -1

[timbob]

Re: 9-7-08

ALL OF THESE ARE COMP PLAYS

Jim Feist

HOUSTON TEXANS

Third-year head Houston coach Gary Kubiak prefers a balanced offense with a strong running attack, like he had in Denver, and brings in assistant coach Alex Gibbs. The new offensive coordinator is Kyle Shanahan, whose father Mike runs those balanced Denver offenses. The Texans do have an accurate QB in Matt Schaub, plus ace WR Andre Johnson. The talented young defensive front has LB DeMeco Ryans, DE Mario Williams and second-year DT Amobi Okoye. Pittsburgh has deadly balance on offense, with QB Ben Roethlisberger (32 TDs, 11 picks, 3,154 yards in 2007), speedy RB Willie Parker, WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, plus TE Heath Miller. The Steelers kept seven defensive linemen on their final roster rather than the normal six, and the reason for that might reflect the age of the group. Only one will be younger than 30 when September ends, and that's backup end Nick Eason, 28. Houston's passing game and emerging young defense should allow them to keep this game close.






Dustin Hawkins

Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Under 44

Lovie Smith and his Chicago Bears head to Indianapolis to take on Peyton Manning and Company. The Bears went from Superbowl team to missing the playoffs in one season. The Heart and Soul of Chicago, the defense is aging which lead to injuries. Matt Forte takes over for Cedric Benson as the starting running back and Kyle Orton reclaims his job as the starting QB!!!
The Colts has questions if Manning will start Sunday night?? This high-power offense has a lot of weapons. If Manning is out, the load will be put on Joseph Addai and that will eat the clock!! The defense is always underrated and should get a big Spark with All-pro Bob Sanders healthy and ready to show his skills. Look for big things from the Colts in 08

Prediction Bears 10 Colts 21

Pick : Under 44





Chip Chirimbes

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
Play:New England Patriots -15

Okay, so the Patriots were 0-4 straight up and against the points during the preseason, son the played four playoff games including the Super Bowl last year and they didn't 'cover' once, okay so they only got the money only once in their last five regular season games. That means that they have gone 10 straight regular and post season gams without covering the pointspread. As a matter of fact they have only covered the number once in their last 13. So why am I on them this opening week? Well, first off they are playing the Kansaas City Chiefs and Tom Brady will be playing. Take the PATROITS and lay the heavy wood!





Wunderdog

St. Louis at Philadelphia
Pick: St. Louis +7.5

There wasn't a team in the NFL that had the injury issues to key players like the Rams did a year ago. They finished with a dreadful 3-13 mark - their worst finish since 1991. But certainly they are a better team than that. This team ran an offense behind a make-shift line each week, and the injury-depleted line stopped the Rams cold. Look for a healthy Marc Bulger to approach 2006 numbers. Many people have forgotten just how good he was back them (over 4,000 yards and 24 TDs with just eight interceptions). Even with a troubled offensive line, and four games missed due to injury, Stephen Jackson still rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. With a healthy line and healthy Jackson, look for the Rams to improve dramatically, and come out in game one with something to prove. Philadelphia played in some close games last season as five of their eight losses were by 4 points or less. The biggest problem was trying to turnover the opponent, as the Eagles managed just 19 takeaways all season. The Eagles biggest void, as has been the case for much of the Donovan McNabb era, will be at wide receiver as Kevin Curtis is out with a sports hernia. That leaves Reggie Brown, another oft-injured receiver, to carry the load. The other problem area for the Eagles is at linebacker, where they will field the youngest group in the league. This group may need time to get things in sync. Overall, this is a Rams team that is being treated by the odds-makers as not much different than their injury plagued '07 season, when the reality is they are more like the '06 team. I am backing the overlay here on the Rams.





Ted Sevransky

Kansas City Chiefs +16.0

This one is real simple. New England closed out the regular season last year with a 1-5 ATS mark, favored by double digits in every single game. Their only pointspread cover during that span came against a Steelers team that was talking trash all week, giving the Patriots that extra motivation that they needed. In the playoffs, New England went 0-3 ATS, all as double digit favorites. In the preseason, the Pats went 0-4 ATS, failing to sniff a pointspread cover in any of their four games. We’re talking about a team that is vastly overvalued by the betting marketplace, in the midst of a 1-12 ATS slide; 1-8 as double digit chalk.

Tom Brady didn’t take a snap in the preseason, and he didn’t even re-join practice until Wednesday. There are rumors swirling that Brady’s injury is far more serious than the Pats have indicated – potentially a fractured leg. His injury riddled offensive line is suspect at best. Key third down back Kevin Faulk is suspended; tight end Ben Watson has a bad knee; and Donte Stallworth will be catching passes in Cleveland this year. This is not the same explosive offense that we saw last year. And with question marks all over their secondary, the backdoor should be wide open for Kansas City if the Pats somehow manage to pull away with a big lead.

The Chiefs might be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, but let’s not forget head coach Herm Edwards penchant for playing conservative football, keeping the games close. In Edwards two seasons as the Kansas City head honcho, 13 of their 19 losses have come by eleven points or less. Look for that trend to continue here – the Pats have no business laying points in this range to even the weakest of foes here in Week 1. Take the Chiefs.






LT Profits

Carolina Panthers +9.0

Now there is no doubt that the San Diego Chargers have more raw talent than the Carolina Panthers, but that may not be so apparent on opening weekend.

Remember that neither LaDainian Tomlinson nor Antonio Gates played a down in preseason, and quarterback Philip Rivers is recuperating from a serious knee injury. We would not be surprised if the Chargers get off to a slow start this season as their stats get their timing down, not unlike last season when they looked very ordinary during the entire month of September.

The Panthers should be improved this season, as they upgraded the offensive line, improved the running game with the drafting of Jonathan Stewart and get quarterback Jake Delhomme back after elbow surgery. If Delhomme could return to his form before the operation, and he did nothing in the preseason to disprove this, then Carolina would have an excellent chance of winning the weak NFC South this season.

We may feel differently if this game were played in mid-season, but right now, the Panthers look like a very attractive big underdog while San Diego looks to get their stars in game shape.

Pick: Panthers +9


Tennessee Titans +3.0

The Jacksonville Jaguars had a dream season last year before losing to the New England Patriots in the second round of the playoffs, but we feel they have a tough opening week matchup with the Tennessee Titans here.

First of all, yes we know it was only preseason, but quarterback David Garrard looked extremely ordinary during the exhibition games, completing just 54 percent of his passes and garnering a very low 75.3 passer rating.

Now he must suddenly flip the switch vs. a devastating Tennessee defensive line, which is no easy feat. Secondly, the Jaguars rely on their two headed running game of Drew and Taylor, but the Titans have one of the best run defenses in the NFL.

Now Vince Young has not developed into an NFL passer, but Tennessee does have a solid running game with the power running of LenDale White and the speed bursts of Chris Johnson, and do not forget that Young is probably a better running threat that passing threat right now. That may be key vs. a Jacksonville run defense that allowed a rather pedestrian 4.1 yards per carry last year.

We feel that the Titans will have more success with their ball control offense than Jacksonville will this week, and getting a field goal at home certainly does not hurt.

Pick: Titans +3

Razor Sharp Sports

The NFL gets underway and the AFC South is wasting no time with getting the divisional action underway. The AFC South looks like it could be the toughest division in football with the Colts, Texans, Jaguars and Titans. Last season only the Texans failed to make the playoffs, but they still finished 8-8. The combined regular season record from the AFC South was 42-22, the best in the NFL. The NFC East was second at 40-24. For the second straight year Jacksonville and Tennessee kickoff their season against each other. Last year they met in the opener in Jacksonville with the Titans winning that contest 13-10. Their other meeting in Tennessee came in November and the Jags came out ahead 28-13.

With a whole new season, you have to expect some different results, but with very similar rosters to last year, I don’t expect much change in these two teams. These teams are built very much alike. Both have strong defenses with a very good front line. John Henderson anchors things up front for Jacksonville, while Albert Haynesworth does the same for the Titans. On offense, both teams have young stars at Running Back. Maurice Jones- Drew (Jax) and LenDale White (Tenn) are both in their 3rd seasons. Last year White ran for 1100 yards and scored 7 TDs while Jones-Drew had 768 yards and 9 scores. Both teams have solid signal callers. Last season, Jaguars QB David Garrard became the full time starter last year and put together a Pro-Bowl season. He threw for over 2500 yards with 18 TDs and only 3 ints. He had a 3rd ranked QB rating of 102.2. For Tennessee, QB Vince Young is double threat through the air and on the ground. Last season he struggled a bit passing. He had just 9 TD passes and 17 ints. He did rush for almost 400 yards and 3 more scores. Turnovers were also his problem when he had the ball. He lost 5 fumbles.

The strength of both of these teams will remain on the defensive side of the ball. Look for a game similar to last season’s opener. As a free winner for this weekend, take the Jacksonville and Tennessee game to go Under the total of 37

Mike Wynn Sports

With hurricane Gustav done and gone it looks like they’ll be playing football at the Superdome Sunday, and the Saints will look to put a very disappointing 2007 campaign behind them. Last year the Saints opened up the season with 4 straight losses and never really ever recovered or lived up to the expectations finishing the season 7-9. Tampa Bay on the other hand was a nice surprise finishing off 2007 winning the NFC South with a 9-7 record and a playoff birth. Big game for both teams here today, as divisional match ups are always doubly important, and both teams will be ready coming out of pre-season. So let’s take a look at both teams here and we’ll start with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Last year Tampa bay made a big improvement finishing 9-7 after a dismal, injury filled, 2006 campaign where they finished 4-12, and the biggest reason for the improvement was the addition of Jeff Garcia at QB to the offense. Garcia was just what the doctor ordered for Gruden last season. Garcia now 38 years old can still run an offense, protect the football, and give the offense some toughness. Cadillac Williams will start the 08 season on the Physically unable to perform list, so the load will fall on the shoulders of Earnest Graham. Graham rushed for nearly 900 yards last season and grabbed 49 balls for the Buccaneers. Along with Graham the Buccaneers have the 33 year-old Warrick Dunn back and speed burner Michael Bennett in the back field, which means Graham will be used early and often until Tampa gets Williams back. The receiving corps isn’t going to scare defensive coordinators. Aging Joey Galloway is another year older, Antonio Bryant has potential but is inconsistent, and Michael Clayton disappeared last year after a great rookie season. But what Tampa Bay lacks on offense lay make up on the defensive side of the ball. Tampa Bay was the number 2 ranked defensive team in the entire league last season and they ranked number 1 against the pass allowing just 170.5 passing yards per game. Tampa will be strong up front on defense led by Greg White & Gaines Adams. Last year Tampa’s down linemen recorded 30 of Tampa’s 33 sacks, so they get pressure with the front 4. The secondary, which is strong, should only get better with the addition of rookie Aqib Talib. Once again Gruden will look for his defense to carry them and look for his offense to not to give games away, and with Jeff Garcia at QB, they should do just that.

New Orleans is a team looking to put last years 7-9 season behind them. Saints pegged by many to make a Super Bowl run last year never got out of the gate losing their first 4 games. Brees was simply awful for the Saints in those 4 games last year throwing just 1 touchdown pass and 9 interceptions. Don’t expect more of the same this year as this is a very, very good Saints offense and their going to score a lot of points this season. Drew Brees will have plenty of weapons at his disposal this season starting with a dynamite receiving corps. Colsten & Meachum have the potential to be the best WR tandem in the league and the acquisition of Shockey at TE gives them another tremendous weapon. At running back the Saints are deep as they come. McAllister, Bush, Thomas, and Stecker are all expected to get a fair share of touches this season, and it’s easy to see why the Saints are going to be a nightmare for defensive coordinators this season. But as good as this offense should be this season the Saints defense is a big question mark. Defensively the Saints need big seasons out of their defensive ends Grant & Smith. The linebacking corps needs a healthy Johnathan Vilma to support a below average support group, and the secondary is a bit of a mess. Mike McKenzie their best corner is recovering form a torn ACL, and they have a lot of new faces in that backfield that haven’t played together. New Orleans is going to give up a lot of points this year, but with Sean Payton and that offense, they’re going to score a lot as well.

As far as this match up goes on Sunday, I’m leaning toward an over here. In the last 4 meetings between these two teams they’ve scored 45 or more points and I expect more of the same. No doubt Tampa Bay will try to exploit the secondary problems of the Saints, and I don’t care whom the Saints are playing this season, they will put points on the board. New Orleans has been waiting all off-season to show that last year was a hiccup, and Drew Brees is to good to open up the season with a 1 to 9 touchdown to interception ratio again this season. This could easily be 31-27 kind of game and we’ll take the over as a free play in this one Sunday.

Dr. Vegas

It’s a game of something to prove. On many levels and of epic proportions.

Never has there been so much buzz about an opening game between two teams that won only 5 games combined the previous season. Yet, the Jets at Dolphins (Sunday, September 7 at 1pm ET) is such a game. All eyes will be on Brett Favre, who kept the sports world fixed upon his short-lived “retirement” and offseason trade to the Jets.

There are those focused on Favre’s age, which is not aided by his graying hair and scruffy white beard. Despite his appearance, he is coming off of a stellar season, one which kept the Packers in the 2007 elite. Sure, there were a few prior years that he looked every bit the aging legend, who was simply mailing it in. But then there was last year’s turnaround. And Favre has a tendency to bask in the spotlight. For the first time in many years, he’s hungry again. He has to prove himself to his new fans, his new teammates, his critics, and himself.

If Favre were the only drama in this game, that would be quite enough. But there’s more.

The Jets had to dump starting QB Chad Pennington to pick up Favre. And it just so happens that the Jets’ travel to Miami to face Pennington and the Dolphins.

So forget that it’s a 4-12 versus a 1-15. Forget records, stats, and trends. This is all about making a statement.

Let’s recap the tangled web of the starting quarterbacks:

* Favre is starting in a Jets uniform.
* Pennington is starting in a Dolphins uniform.
* Pennington is facing his old team.
* Pennington is facing Favre, his replacement

Defensive end Shaun Ellis perhaps described it most accurately. Weird.

Bill Parcells enters the mix as new director of football operations for Miami. He is hoping to make enough changes to bring them near .500 on the season. It’s a tall task, but a win in week 1 would sure help build a little confidence and give Parcells a little breathing room.

With all of the QB drama on the field, don’t be surprised if the player of the game ends up being Dolphins RB Ricky Williams, who raised eyebrows in the preseason.

So in a game that on paper looks like a yawner, it promises to be one of the more interesting games to kick off the season.

Free pick from Dr. Vegas: Take the Jets -3 over Miami

Carlo Campanella comp

Game: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins Sep 7 2008 1:00PM

Prediction: New York Jets

Reason: This NY Jets at Miami match-up has trap game written all over it. The Jets (4-12) acquire QB Bret Favre and only open up favored by a field goal against a Dolphins team that won only 1 game last season! While the public will jump on Brett and the Jets, well take the points here with Miami, who brought in Bill Parcells to help new Head Coach Tony Sparano plug the holes on both sides of the ball. Miami plays this with double revenge after dropping both meetings to the Jets last year- Theyll get it as these Jets lost their only game as road chalk OUTRIGHT last year, 14-17, against another Division foe Buffalo.

7* Play On Miami


Nevada Sharpshooter

The Dallas Cowboys travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns. Cleveland just missed the playoffs last season and are looking to take the next step. Offensively the Browns are very good. Leading them is QB Derek Anderson who has developed into one of the more exciting players in the league. His main targets will be WR Braylon Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow. Leading the ground game is Jamal Lewis. While many of the Browns have been injured in the preseason, they should all be ready for game 1 of the regular season.

The Cowboys on the other hand are used to making the playoffs but have not been able to advance past the 1st round in several seasons. Like the Browns the Boys are loaded on offense with QB Tony Romo and his favorite targets, WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten. Carrying the load on the ground is RB Marion Barber. Defensively the Cowboys also are solid, led by LB Demetrius Ware. Also looking to contribute is new addition Pacman Jones.

While the Browns may be a playoff contender the Cowboys are a Superbowl contender. Both teams have strong offenses but Dallas has the advantage on defense and special teams. Take Dallas -5.5 over Cleveland as they roll to a road win by at least a TD.


Totals 4 You
Posted on Monday, September 1st

Cincinnati (0-0) recently made some tough choices by cutting former Pro Bowlers RT Willie Anderson, RB Rudi Johnson, and CB Deltha O’Neal, adding $8 million in cap room, in a move to reverse the aging of a team that opened last season at 2-6 before finishing out of the playoffs at 7-9. Offense again will be a strength for Coach Marvin Lewis’s (42-38 in 6th season) crew with a strong offensive line (17 sacks allowed in ’07, average 6’5 ½” and 326 pounds) providing the time for QB Carson Palmer to grab chunks via former Oregon State teammates WR Chad Johnson and WR TJ Houshmandzadeh who combined for 205 catches, 2583 yards, and 20 touchdowns in 2007. The addition of 6’6” 250 TE Ben Utecht to 6’4” 256 TE Reggie Kelly should beef up the running game and if starting RB Chris Perry continues his career struggle with remaining healthy, reliable 7th-year RB Kenny Watson (178 for 763 yards and 7 TD in ’07) can step right in. Keep your eye on 6’2” 195 rookie WR Jerome Simpson (2nd round Coastal Carolina) who earned the 3rd receiver sop with a big preseason while WR Antonio Chatman will again handle returns. Cincinnati will certainly score with this squad but if they are to return to the post season, Coordinator Mike Zimmer’s defense must show more up front. 3rd-year 6’3” 325 LDT Donato Peko comes off a superb season (52 T, 1 ½ S) on the inside but RDT John Thornton is aging, LDE Robert Geathers managed just 3 ½ sacks last year, and RDE Antwan Odom hasn’t suited up since the first preseason practice. The Bengal back 7 is capable of a big season. WLB Brandon Johnson, MLB Dhani Jones, and Rashad Jeanty are a good group, backed up by strong depth in 6’2” 241 rookie OLB Keith Rivers (USC) and 6’3” 255 OLB Darryl Blackstock. Safety is a bit of a concern with FS Marvin White moving to the starting lineup and SS Dexter Jackson battling an ankle but look out for these corners. 5’11” 193 3rd-year LCB Johnathan Joseph (58 T, 4 INT) and 5’11” 199 2nd-year RCB Leon Hall (60 T, 5 INT) are primed for huge seasons. With the money on the line, few kickers are better than Shayne Graham (133 of 152 career field goals, 31 of 34 last season) while P Kyle Larson are returns.

Baltimore (0-0) first year Coach John Harbaugh announced Monday that the time is now for 6’6” 230 rookie QB Joe Flacco (1st round Delaware). The shoulder injury to QB Kyle Boller and the illness of QB Troy Smith forced the move although Flacco’s strong preseason starts against the Rams and Falcons (combined 26 of 40 for 224 yards and a TD) might have earned him the shot anyway to improve on last season’s (5-11) pitiful team passing marks of 5.94 yards per attempt and 13 touchdowns. As big of an issue with be the Ravens’ offensive line. 6’9” 330 LT Jared Gaither, 6’3” 315 LG Ben Grubbs, 6’3” 320 C Jason Brown, 6’3” 310 RG Marshal Yanda, and 6’8” 330 RT Adam Terry make up a huge group but averaged 1.8 years of NFL service coming into the 2008 season. Tight end Todd Heap, receivers Mark Clayton (48 for 531 yards in ’07) and Derrick Mason (103 for 1087 and 5 TD), plus backs Willis McGahee (1207 yards and 7 TD) and 5’8” 205 rookie Ray Rice (Rutgers) Baltimore enough talent at the skill positions but their production will be at the mercy of the kids up front. 2nd-year WR Yamon Figures will again handle punt (10.7 per with TD) and kick (24.7 and TD) duties. Coordinator Rex Ryan’s stoppers have carried the load for this franchise for years but age is becoming a serious issue. 12th-year LDE Trevor Pryce, 13th-year LILB Ray Lewis (120 T, 2 S, 2 INT), 10th-year RCB Chris McAlister, and 11th-year LCB Samari Rolle all hold starting spots with the cornerback pair starting to show it with just 2 combined picks in 2007. Nickel and Dime backs 5’11” 196 Frank Walker and 5’11” 180 Fabian Washington will be tested this week and must have big seasons while defensive backfield mates 6’0” 220 SS Dawan Landry (82 T, S) and 5’11” 200 FS Ed Reed (7 INT) are tough as nails up the middle. ROLB Terrell Suggs (80 T, 5 S) and LOLB Jarret Johnson (58 T, 2 S) will be called upon to bring more heat on the pocket than they did last season while 6’0” 315 NT Kelly Gregg and 6’4” 345 RDE are simply unmovable (2.8 yards allowed per rush).

FREE SELECTION: The Ravens showed little sign of offensive life during the preseason with 12.5 points and 224.2 yards per game while offensive line will be a major issue. We give the Week 1 nod to the Cincinnati Bengals –1 ½.

Craig Trapp

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars -3

This would definately be one of Craig's premium plays if this team was not having off the field transgressions. All of the positive momentum the Jaguars (11-5) generated with their 2007 season and by locking up quarterback David Garrard to a long-term deal in April has been threatened by some off-the-field episodes. Now the Jaguars (11-5) must put aside the distractions and refocus for a season which many believe could be the one in which they finally wrestle away the AFC South crown from Indianapolis, which has won five straight division titles. Garrard didn't have his best game in the team's wild-card playoff win in Pittsburgh, but in the divisional round against New England he completed 22 of 33 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns despite the Jaguars' 31-20 loss. The 30-year-old Garrard was rewarded with the richest contract in team history, a six-year, $60 million extension. Garrard's progress along with the running back tandem of Maurice Jones-Drew and Taylor give the Jaguars a potentially potent offense, though the wide receiver position remains a question mark. On the other hand there are many questions for TEN offense. Tennessee's chances to make a return appearance to the postseason are unquestionably tied to quarterback Vince Young, who proved in his second NFL season that he's still a work in progress. They have a very solid back in White but injuries have always hurt him. Most games this competitive come down to QB and coaching and without a doubt JAC beats them at both. Expect it to be low scoring with JAC pulling away in the 4th quarter. SCORE JAC 20 - TEN 13

Gregg Price

Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns
Playallas Cowboys -5.5

Dallas - I'm not buying into Cleveland just yet, its only been 1 good year. Romo has a lot to prove this year, he needs to win a playoff game. If Anderson has any lingering effects from the concussion it will be along day for him. Dallas is fast on D and they should get the win and cover.

Alex Smart

Miami Dolphins +3.0

The NY Jets are now the publics flavor of the week , as Brett Favre mania takes hold in the countries biggest metropolitan media center. The peoples choice awards for betting into bad lines is currently front and center for the Vegas and off shore books for this Sundays NFL opening action, as cash keeps flying in on a Jets team that lost 7 of their 8 road games SU last season.

A lot of square bettors are laying their money down on this game , strictly because of the Favre factor and the Dolphins perceived ineptness, because of a 1 win season in 2007, and array of coincidental and meaningless trends.

A closer look at this Jets @ Dolphins battle, features a matchtup between two pretty evenly matched teams , on both sides of the ball, with both quarterbacks ( Favre NYJs ) and (Pennington ,Fins ) trying to learn new systems.

The edge in my humble opinion, contrary to popular belief resides with President Bill Parcells and new head coach Tony Sparano as home dogs.

Take the points with Miami -Projected score: Dolphins 17 NY Jets 16

Matt Foust

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Over 36.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars will travel to Tennessee to face the Titans at LP Field in Nashville on Sunday. This is the second season in a row that these two heated AFC South rivals open the season against each other. Last year the Titans dropped the Jags13-10 in Jacksonville as a +7 road dog. This year the Jags are a -3 road favorite and the total is set at 36.5.

We are going to go with the Over in this division contest. Last year the Titans ran all of the Jaguars to open the season, rushing for 282 yards on 48 carries and in the process, they ground the game to a halt. Jacksonville compiled just 272 yards in their limited possession time. For the game at Tennessee, the Titans took the exact opposite approach, rushing just 19 times and throwing it 41 times. Meanwhile, the Jags rushed it 44 times it threw it just 23 times. The score (28-13 JAC) easily went over the 35 point total.

Both teams possess quality rush defenses and will likely force the other team to utilize the passing game at some point. Both squads also have big play candidates in the backfield (Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, Vince Young, etc.) who are capable of breaking off long runs and scoring in quick fashion. The Jaguars had some changes on the defensive side of the ball too and it may take a few games for them to fully mesh.

I look for a good mix (run and pass) from both teams and both offenses should be able to do enough to get this over the low total in rather easy fashion.

Things to consider: The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six between these two at Tennessee when the Titans were a home dog. The average game score was 49.2 and the total was never below the 36.5 line on Sunday’s game.

Pick: Take the OVER 36.5 -110

John Ryan

Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills
Play:Seattle Seahawks +1

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Seattle – Buffalo has high expectations with many Bills players guaranteeing that this will be a playoff bound season. Their first game can’t get much more difficult with the Seahawks coming into town. Buffalo has a new offensive scheme and several new players on defense. In summary, I just don’t see, based on published reports and pre-season performances, how Buffalo will be able to play a complete game from beginning to end. Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters is holding out in a contract dispute. Defensive tackle Marcus Stroud, outside linebacker Kawika Mitchell and cornerback Leodis MvKelvin, the team's first-round draft pick, make their debuts on a revamped defense. Seattle’s defense is very good and filled with Pro Bowlers. This defensive unit will set the tone and control the LOS throughout the game. I think it makes total sense too, that the Seattle offense will try and run as many plays as possible with quick huddles and even using a no huddle every so often. In setting a fast tone, it will force Buffalo to stay with personnel on the field and allow Seattle to identify favorable matchups to exploit. AiS shows a 73% probability that Seattle will win this game. It also reveals an 83% probability that they will gain a MINIMUM of 300 total yards on offense. Note that Seattle is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 2 seasons. Here is a significant money line angle that shows Buffalo with a 1-7 mark losing -7.2 units when they allow 6 to 6.5 net passing yards/attempt over the last 3 seasons. Take Seattle


Nelly

Philadelphia – over St. Louis

The Eagles defense should be among the best in the league and St. Louis is a team that falls apart if there are mistakes in the passing game. Getting RB Jackson up to speed may take a little more time and the Rams are in a phase one of rebuilding still even though there is growing pressure on the coaching staff. The Rams have not been a strong underdog team and Philadelphia is ready to take care of business at home. QB McNabb looked sharp in preseason action and the Eagles can start strong with a big win and cover despite the growing line.

Tom Freese

Dallas at Cleveland

Dallas is in a 29-8 ATS Super System that says to Play On favorites in the first week of the season if they failed ATS in their last 3 games last year. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS their last 5 September games. Cleveland looks to be a public team this year after their 10-6 Straight Up and 12-4 ATS record last year. It will be a different dynamic this year for the Browns with expectations very high in Cleveland. The Browns are up against some heavy freight in this contest. PLAY ON #471 DALLAS -

Lenny Del Genio

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns Sep 7 2008 4:15PM
Prediction: Over

This will be the 10th consecutive season the Cleveland Browns have opened the year at home. Previously, they are just 1-8 SU, so as attractive as the points look, we can?t take them. What we will do though is go Over. Wade Phillips is 11-2 Over on the road in non-conference games. Dallas was 2nd in the NFL last year scoring over 28 PPG. Cleveland averaged over 26 PPG at home. The Browns also began the year by going Over in 9 of their first 10 in 2007. Take Over.

PRO INFO SPORTS

Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: UNDER 41

Grade: TWO-Star (rated 1 to 6 units)

The Lions open the 2008 campaign in Atlanta as 3 point road favorites. This is a role they have certainly struggled with in the past, posting a record of 0-7 both SU and ATS since 1997. Lions coach Marinelli is also 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS on the road.

Atlanta will start 1st Round Draft Choice QB Matt Ryan from Boston College . A new coach and new QB mean growing pains and an offense that will struggle to start the season. Although the Falcon defense was able to hold opponents to only 12 points per game during the preseason which shows they do have the desire to put last years fiasco behind them and concentrate on the job at hand.

We believe the combination of all these factors will lead to a low scoring affair in the Georgia Dome on Sunday afternoon. We also note that these two teams have combined for a 7-1 Under record in Game One of the season over the last four years.

Technical support for our selection comes from systems that tell us to Play Under on NFL Week One favorites of 4 points or less. This system has been perfect posting a record of 15-0 Under the last 15 qualifying contests. Week One dome games have also produced a perfect Under record going 9-0 Under the last nine times.

A Detroit team that struggles on the road and a "new" Falcons team along with strong technical support combine for a nice opening week 2* Under Selection winner in the Lions / Falcons match up.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Detroit / Atlanta UNDER 41

Sports Gambling Hotline

NY Jets at MIAMI +3

Of course this game now has serious interest for the nation as Brett Favre is running the show for New York, while the exiled Chad Pennington gets a crack at his former team.

We will take the points with the host in this spot, as we liked what we saw from Miami in the preseason, and we feel they are out to make a statement in this game.

Reports out of the south Florida area are that the Fly-boys are struggling with the heat, and humidity, and that certainly could play a huge factor come the latter stages in this game.

All of the series numbers point in New York's favor, as the Jets have won the last 4 meetings outright, and are on a 8-0-1 spread run the last 9 times these division rivals have met. Obviously, Pennington was a big part of New York's dominance over Miami. Today, the shoe is on the other foot, and we will glady go against Brett Favre in his Jets debut.

Play on Miami.

2? MIAMI

Karl Garrett

Kansas City +16 at NEW ENGLAND

The G-Man thinks the number on this game is absolutely ludicrous!

How can a New England team that finished the preseason at 0-4 - and looked very bad in doing so - be favored by this much?

Tom Brady didn't play a down in the preseason, and chances he is 100% seem very unlikely to me. Sure the Patriots own a 19-game regular season win streak, but the impost has been a little lofty on them down the stretch, as New England has covered just once in their last 9 games.

Kansas City went just 4-12 a season ago, but the Chiefs were able to cover in 6 of their 8 road games a season ago.

It's not one of Week One's marquee games, but too many question marks surround this New England team for me to say with certainty that they are going to cover this hefty impost.

Would rather side with the huge dog in the first game of the year.

Take Kansas City.

1? KANSAS CITY

Jeff Benton

Lions minus the points at Atlanta.

First off, Matt Ryan may prove to be a good NFL quarterback over time for the Falcons, but are you willing to trust him to succeed in his very first start behind a below-average offensive line? I’m not. I mean, he’s probably got more raw talent than Joey Harrington and Chris Redman – Atlanta’s two QBs last year – but at least those two had experience facing NFL defenses, and you saw how that turned out.

Now, I do like the Falcons’ upgrade at RB with Michael Turner joining Jerrious Norwood. But really, how much room is either of those guys going to have to run when opposing defenses put eight or nine in the box and dare Ryan to beat them? Even Detroit is smart enough to employ that tactic!

Speaking of the Lions, yeah, they’ve been among the biggest underachievers in football over the past decade. But at least they showed some signs of life last year, starting out 6-2 before sputtering to a 7-9 finish. And Detroit beat the weak teams on its schedule, including the Raiders, Vikings, Bears (twice), Broncos and Chiefs. And while I try not to put a whole lot of emphasis on the preseason, I think it is pertinent to point out that the Lions were the only team to finish August with a perfect record. And they looked good on both sides of the ball, outscoring their opponents 80-32. Not only were the 32 points allowed the fewest in the league, but no other squad gave up fewer than 41. Take that however you want it, but if the defense played that well, why can’t it dominate against a rookie quarterback leading one of the weakest offenses in the league?

Throw in the fact that the Lions have a ton of weapons on offense, led by veteran QB Kitna, and they’ve cashed in five straight season-openers, and I’ll back the road chalk with confidence.

5? DETROIT LIONS

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Tampa Bay over New Orleans

When the Bucs battle the Saints in New Orleans in opening week action on today's NFL card they'll do so knowing head coach John Gruden has won his first division game of the season 7 out of 8 times this decade. In addition, Tampa improved both their their offensive and defensive averages last season while the Saints declined both offensively and defensively. Grab the points in this upset maker as New Orleans dips to 1-13 ATS as a division home favorite here today.

Jimmy The Moose

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last season many expected the Saints to win the division and be serious Super Bowl contenders. Neither happened and the Saints missed out on the playoffs. The NFC South division winners were the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and today they come into New Orleans as a dog and expected to lose out to the Saints again in the division race. The Bucs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in September. Tampa is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games. The Saints are talented on offense but the D is a mystery going into week 1. The Saints are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games. New Orleans is 17-36-2 in their last 55 home games. The Saints are 2-4 SU 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings with the Bucs. Tampa is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to New Orleans. Play on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +.

Stephen Nover

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
PICK: Tennessee Titans +3

The Tennessee Titans are an under-the-radar-screen, non-public team often undervaled on the betting line.

I believe that's the case again in this matchup with the Titans being three-point home underdogs. The Titans are 13-5-2 (72 percent) against the spread during the past 20 times they've been a 'dog.

Tennessee pounded the Jaguars for a combined 458 yards rushing in two games last season. The Jaguars are now without run-stuffing tackle Marcus Stroud and the Titans have upgraded their rushing attack with the addition of speedy rookie Chris Johnson.

Neither team has much of a passing attack. The Jaguars were hoping newcomer Jerry Porter could be their No. 1 wideout, but he's injured and won't play.

Jacksonville also is banged-up in its offensive line with center Brad Meester out.

It has been a trying and distracting week for the Jaguars. Backup lineman Richard Collier was shot. Team members spent time visiting him in the hospital as he recoveres from gunshot wounds.

This figures to be a tough, in-the-trenches defensive battle with lots of rushing. I respect Jacksonville's running back duo of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor.

However, the combination of key Jacksonville injuries, the distraction of having a team member nearly killed and Tennessee's record as an underdog, puts me on the Titans.

Bob Majors

CAR +9.0 vs SDC

Carolina Panthers travel to the San Diego Charges. Panthers may be taken too lightly here and the Charger defense is hurting with several player suspect in playing. Caroline is 22-5 ATS last 27 games as underdog with Delhomme in as QB. Don't be surprise with an outright upset of the Chargers. Take the Panthers

Rocketman

Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Play:1* Cincinnati -1 1/2

Cincinnati is 3-1 SU and ATS overall vs Baltimore last 3 years. Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September. Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC. Ravens are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games on grass. Ravens are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 1. Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North. Ravens are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. AFC. Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Cincinnati

John Fisher

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +15

Gregg Price

Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Dallas Cowboys -5.5

Sean Higgs
Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Over 49

[timbob]

Re: 9-7-08

Sport Favorite Underdog Line Pick

Sun (NFL) Jets Dolphins 3 Dolphins
Sun (NFL) Bills Seahawks 1 Bills
Sun (NFL) Cardinals 49er's 2- 49er's
Sun (NFL) Colts Bears 9- Bears

[timbob]

Re: 9-7-08

Armvin Sports

Nfl
9/7/2008 Baltimore 1.5

Mlb
9/7/2008 Pittsburgh Pirates 114

[timbob]

Re: 9-7-08

Chris Rizzo

NFL
9/7/2008
Best Bet! BALTIMORE 1.5

PITTSBURGH -6.5
PHILADELPHIA -7.5
DALLAS -5.5
MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY Over 38

[timbob]

Re: 9-7-08

HONDO

HONDO slithered his way to defeat with the Diamond backs yesterday, getting thumped in LA to reduce his disposable dead presidents to 665 tiefenauers.

Today, he'll go Lee-ward with the Indians - 10 units on Cliffy to provide some cheers for HONDO Nation.

[timbob]

Re: 9-7-08

SCOTT FERRALL

MLB SUNDAY

Minney over Detroit--Perkins easy at home over crappy Tigers

Oakland over Baltimore at Camden--talk about worthless games

TB and GARZA in Toronto--I really think they stop the bleeding here

Colorado over Houston in Coors

Atlanta over Washington at Turner Field with Reyes pitching--he won't be the difference as both teams will score--take the Braves even though they swallow

Reds over Cubs at Great American Ballpark with Harang getting it done over Marshall--Chicago's struggling ass right now

NFL

Minnesota +3 from Green Bay--Vikings spoil Rodgers debut in the regular season at Lambeau--Jared Allen with a big game chasing him down and Peterson going off on the Packers defense


Oakland +3 from Denver in the Black Hole--Basically an upset here by the Raiders with Russell and McFadden having good games and the Broncos screwing it up on the road in Northern Cal

[timbob]

Re: 9-7-08

PSYCHIC
2 units Pittsburgh -6.5
3 units St. Louis +9
WISEGUY.....Jacksonville -3

DA STICK
5 units New England -15.5
5 units Buffalo -1.5
10 units Dallas -5.5
10 units Indianapolis -9.5
UNDERDOG OF THE DAY NFL SUNDAY.....10 units Atlanta +3
TEASER OF THE WEEKEND.....10 units Miami +13, Buffalo +8.5, Indianapolis -.5
PARLAY OF THE WEEKEND.....5 units Dallas/Indianapolis

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-08

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
25 DIME PLAY

CINCINNATI BENGALS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-08

BOB BALFE

NFL Football

Jets/Dolphins Over 36

Who would have thought two months ago that Brett Favre would be playing for the Jets and Chad Pennington then Jets QB would be facing his old team opening week. Pennington has a huge advantage as he knows each and every player on the Jets Defense and can point out their strengths and weaknesses. You know that Brett Favre will do his part in his Jets debut. Both teams have size advantages on offense and should put up enough points to send this OVER the total.

Rams +8.5 over Eagles

This game has classic upset all over it The Rams are getting no respect as Joe Public is betting heavily on the eagles at home. Philadelphia will be without both of their starting WR's today if indeed Brown's doubtful status holds up. The Eagles defense has always allowed teams to run on them and their secondary is not what it used to be in the past even with Samuels at corner. The Rams can run the ball and have a veteran QB in Marc Bulger who can throw to his veteran receivers. McNabb is always a hit or miss performer and it is so typical of Philadelphia sports to bomb out in games like this. This is a big number for the Eagles to be laying in week one. Look for the Rams to cover with a possible upset.

Cardinals/49ers Over 42

The 49ers will be the most improved team in the NFL this year. Last year San Francisco was ready to turn the corner, but injuries slowed them up. Arizona will go with the veteran QB Kurt Warner who has a ton of weapons behind him. J.T. O'Sullivan will be a household name by Thanksgiving. Both teams match up very well against each other and I am expecting a ton of points on the board when this one is done. Take the Over.


Major League Baseball

Rays -135 over Bluejays

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-08

Teddy Covers / 20*buffalo
Erin Rynning / playmaker tennessee

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-7-08

*** EZWINNERS MLB ***


1 STAR: (961) HOUSTON (+$121) over Colorado
(Listing Rodriguez only)
(Risking $100 to win $121)
2:05PM Central Time

1 STAR: (971) DETROIT (+$155) over Minnesota
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $155)
1:10PM Central Time