Thursday 2/16/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #3

#6 Blame Day	Not sure she's offering much of a price here, but I think she'll stretch her form around two turns just fine, and she should be in line for a great trip right up near the top. The one to beat in a modest race for the level.
#5 Mischievous Gal	She'll get blinkers while racing with Lasix for the first time, and maybe a more leisurely two-turn tempo will allow her to sit right up on the splits and hang around late.
#1 Lady With a Cause	She was second best behind an easy winner last time out, and something similar would keep her in the frame again here even though she likely needs a step forward to handle the top choice.
Race Summary	Blame Day has turned in three solid tries from as many starts to open her career, and she meets a field that should give her every chance to prove she can handle the new trip.

Fair Grounds - Race #6

#2 Crimaldi	She was hung out a bit wide in her debut run last November at Churchill, but she made a mild move that day before going one-paced late. The dam has already thrown a couple six-figure winners including sharp sprinter Bango, so there might be some more here still.
#7 Beauxs Artes	She showed some pretty decent potential in those first two starts last spring, and now she's back off the layoff for career start number three as a 4-year-old. Wouldn't be a shock if she blasted these.
#3 Catwings	Think she's in the mix here with her best stuff, but she was never a threat at 4/5 in the comeback after getting DQ'ed from the Indiana Grand win after the fact. Capable of better, but maybe still overbet.
Race Summary	Crimaldi brings a lot of upside in this second start, and she seemingly has some potential moving forward. This is a pretty competitive bunch here, so I'd want something close to the 6/1 ML price to jump in.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#5 Lolloping	She'll probably take a bit of cash off the decent comeback effort behind a sharp and high-upside winner last time out, and she should be in a good spot turning for home while hopefully being a bit tighter in this second start back off the bench.
#6 Livy B	Think she owns a handful of running lines in the last year that might keep her in the frame for a piece of this, and she should offer a decent price after finishing modestly in the same common race as the top choice last out.
#4 Blissful	She wouldn't be any surprise in here on class with a couple stakes tries on her page and allowance efforts with better, but I don't find the form super compelling overall and am happy to let her beat me in this one.
Race Summary	Lolloping is a strong lean after a useful comeback run last out when she showed the way and got run down by a very confident winner. I wonder if she's a little better from off the pace, and there is enough other speed in here to give her the chance to settle, spy, and finish.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delta Downs - Race #1

#1 RAZZ (9-2)	Dueled with odds-on fave, ran second, appears rounding to a win.
#4 COUNTRY CAT JAKE (6-1)	Hit board in 3 of last 6 at this distance, switches pilots.
#2 TALK TO TOKEY (5-2)	Has speed, takes class drop, shortens up.
Race Summary	RAZZ dueled 3-wide alongside the 2-to-5 winner and ‘re-bid on the turn’ to finish second best. Not crazy about the rail draw but value remains with a 9-to-2 morning line. Bet to win and place.

Delta Downs - Race #6

#2 AKHNAS (4-1)	Waited to get eligible for this race, likes Delta, has the fave to run down.
#6 CLEAR HUMOR (5-2)	Has speed, best numbers and gets class relief, wouldn’t expect 5-2.
#8 COOL INDIVIDUAL (5-1)	Been away six months, been money burner, takes the plunge.
Race Summary	AKHNAS became eligible for this spot in the five weeks since he was the beaten favorite against better. He’s a major player to enhance his 7/2-2-1 Delta Downs record. Bet to win and place and p lay a 2-6-ALL trifecta.

Delta Downs - Race #8

#3 BOTTOMLESS (7-2)	Made moves in last pair at one mile, sheds weight, draws inside.
#1 SCREENPLAY (5-2)	Stronger half of entry blew stretch leads at one mile twice recently.
#9 INDEFENSIBLE (8-1)	Won twice at Delta, projects ideal trip, use in gimmick wagers.
Race Summary	BOTTOMLESS, in-hand until the far turn, advanced along the rail, was in a bit tight in the stretch and finished okay. He made a 4-wide middle move in the race prior and should be well suited to the 7-1/2F distance with plenty of speed to run at. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 5	Pick 3 (5-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Quinella / Superfecta / Daily Double 5-6
Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 4:30P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 1 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 16 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 16 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * CURONG: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. POKER COCO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GREAT JUNIOR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" design ation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CHIEFICIA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	CURONG	3/1	5/1
9	POKER COCO	3/1	6/1
7	GREAT JUNIOR	6/1	7/1
11	CHIEFICIA	8/5	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
11	CHIEFICIA	13	8/5	Front-runner	68	62	72.0	48.2	37.7
9	POKER COCO	10	3/1	Front-runner	66	58	71.6	62.0	55.0
7	GREAT JUNIOR	7	6/1	Front-runner	68	62	67.6	46.2	42.2
2	SINVERGUENZA	2	10/1	Front-runner	48	50	48.0	48.0	31.0
12	WRITER'S EXPRESS	9	50/1	Alternator/Stalker	65	65	63.2	45.8	27.3
3	PREDECIBLE	3	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	60	55.8	47.4	40.4
4	HATCHET JACK	4	12/1	Trailer	52	46	42.2	39.4	16.4
1	CURONG	1	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	73	64	74.0	52.9	45.9
13	EL FARINELLO	11	50/1	Alternator/Non-contender	53	46	53.2	36.4	17.4
6	LIBRE SOY	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	55	49	52.6	35.0	20.5
8	REY WILLIAM	8	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	54	50.2	29.0	10.5
5	GERARDITO'S BOY	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	50	45	43.9	37.5	22.5
10	CODIGO VEINTIUNO	12	9/5	Alternator/Non-contender	46	43	40.8	29.8	10.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream ParkPURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 2	$1 Daily Double /$1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 $.50 Bet 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $8,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $23,000 • Post: 12:40
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. RHYMES LIKE DIMES is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * TONE FEELIN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 day s. PRINCE MAIOR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. EXAMINER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ONUR (ARG): Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. BOBBY'S GIFT: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
7	TONE FEELIN	4/1	6/1
4	PRINCE MAIOR	12/1	6/1
5	EXAMINER	9/2	7/1
3	ONUR (ARG)	6/1	7/1
2	BOBBY'S GIFT	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	PRINCE MAIOR	4	12/1	Front-runner	93	80	75.8	76.8	73.3
5	EXAMINER	5	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	93	83	73.5	74.0	65.5
7	TONE FEELIN	7	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	91	80	77.0	84.2	78.7
3	ONUR (ARG)	3	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	76	69.2	74.9	67.4
2	BOBBY'S GIFT	2	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	77	61.0	73.5	63.5
1	RHYMES LIKE DIMES	1	7/2	Trailer	82	67	88.6	75.6	66.1
6	SMALL REASON	6	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	71	73.2	74.4	62.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #4 - Post: 2:03pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,500 Class Rating: 36

Rating:

#7 TRANSPIRED (ML=8/1)


TRANSPIRED - Trainer Gorostieta gave this gelding a good stiff workout. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. A big drop down in Equibase class figure points from his Jan 26th race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Based on that data, I will give this horse the edge. Entered a $15,000 Maiden Claiming race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour in the last race and raced on the mud finishing fourth. Expect better in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 LUNCHATTHELIZARD (ML=7/2), #6 ROUGE TU RICHES (ML=4/1), #9 DANES HEART (ML=9/2),

LUNCHATTHELIZARD - Today's affair is 6 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a sprint affair in the last sixty days. Not the best of signals. This racer will probably need at least one more start after the lackluster showing following the long vacation. ROUGE TU RICHES - Mediocre speed fig last race out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this questionable contender will improve too much today. DANES HEART - Can't bet on this vulnerable equine in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint race lately. Tough to play at 9/2 odds after the most recent efforts.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 TRANSPIRED is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $13600 Class Rating: 50

FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SKIMBLE SHANKS 5/2
# 7 BENCH PRESS 3/1
# 8 OATIE 9/2

SKIMBLE SHANKS looks to be a quite good contender. The big drop in class can only help out this one this time out. This equine has to be in form coming back to the track so soon. This gelding must be carefully examined just off the earnings per start in dirt route races alone. OATIE - Is a definite contender - given the 71 Equibase Speed Fig from his most recent race. I like the jock on this gelding - very strong chance to win the race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 63

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 CUSTOM PRAYER 9/2
# 3 REECEMANIA 4/1
# 2 INSPECTOR ED 8/1

I think CUSTOM PRAYER is a decent choice. Vaunts reliable speed figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this field. Will probably come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved promptly to the lead recently. Garnered a very strong speed figure last time out. REECEMANIA - Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the means to a return to the track. Hernandez has a win percentage of 24 over the last 30 days. INSPECTOR ED - Have to take notice when any pony makes a quick turnaround. Keep this gelding in your exotics as Green has given backers some double digit profits.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 4:03pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,400 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#7 SIX SHOTS OF T (ML=6/1)
#4 I'M NOBLE (ML=5/1)
#2 KNOCKOUT GUY (ML=5/1)


SIX SHOTS OF T - This gelding's last speed figure garnered on January 5th is uppermost in last race Equibase speed figs. I'M NOBLE - That last race must not have been too hard on this gelding for him to be able to race again so quickly. Adding blinkers occasionally leads to an improved performance on the racetrack. KNOCKOUT GUY - This colt's last race was better than looked. He showed good speed, dropped back a bit but held even through to the finish. Just missed hitting the board on Jan 31st at Turf Paradise. With pretty decent morning line odds in this event, he has my interest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SUGAR SHANE (ML=2/1), #1 HE'S A FLYIN (ML=4/1), #3 WRONG SPOT (ML=6/1),

SUGAR SHANE - When checking today's class rating, he will have to record a better speed rating than last time out to be competitive in this dirt sprint. HE'S A FLYIN - Awfully difficult to bet on this less than sharp equine when he hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness of late. 4/1 is not priced right for any horse in a sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance affair recently. WRONG SPOT - 6/1 is too short of a price to take on this entrant.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 SIX SHOTS OF T to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocket Picks ��: Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds for February 16, 2023
By: Aaron Halterman

Let’s get another week started off right! For the free pick 4, we will head to Gulfstream Park for the Late Pick 4 on the card. We will also have full card selections for Fair Grounds for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s GO!

Below is our free late Pick 4 for Gulfstream Park:

Gulfstream Park February 16, 2023

Race 6: Claiming

#2 Board Certified was a close fourth last time out over this surface and at his class level. He should be competitive once again today. #1 C My Meister moves back to the synthetic surface today, while also getting a nice drop down in class, which should help his chances.

Race 7: Claiming
freestar

#6 Economic Hangover has solid form over this synthetic surface, while she also gets a nice drop down in class for this one. #8 Herington Rocket gets major class relief for this race today, while also moving over to the synthetic surface for the first time for a solid trainer.

Race 8: Claiming

#9 French Franc won at this level last time out, while she was a solid second two starts back at the same level. She runs first off the claim for a solid trainer in this spot as well. #3 Laniakea Storm moves over to the turf today, while also getting some class relief. She has won twice at this level over the synthetic surface.

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight

#3 Nate the Great was a solid second last time out at this class level on debut over the turf. He will be tough if he takes to the synthetic surface. #9 Justins Legacy also ran well on the turf in his debut race, finishing second by a neck. This is another horse that should be tough if he takes to the surface.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 6-9) 1,2,3,4 / 6,8 / 3,5,8,9 / 3,6,9 – $48

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - February 16

Feb. 15, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (5) Delahaye has put in two bullet works for her debut and shapes up as the one to beat. (7) Ready She Is just might be after a sluggish debut. (2) Love Appeals is another firster with good credentials. (3) Penumbras Maker usually brings home a check and cannot be ignored. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-7.

4th race – (5) She’s Classy won last time at this level and can make it two in a row. (7) Six Feet Apart has speed and could be tough to catch. (8) Onezy’s Dream looks like a stretch threat here. (4) Opeongo has sharp early speed and may last for a share. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5-7-8. Doubles: 4-5-7-8 with 2-4-5-8.

5th race – (4) Galileo’s Jewel rallied belatedly for third and can take a step forward here. (2) Accept the Outcome is an interesting firster for Chad. (8) Grace Darling makes her U.S. debut and may be a main threat. (5) Armonia should be closing quickly in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5-8.

7th race – (1) Musical Romance (B) raced wide when closing for third and should work out a winning trip from the rail. (6) Economic Hangover rallied on the outside for second and is the one to fear. (2) Mint Edition adds blinkers and may turn in a better effort. (4) High Vibes could be tough to catch in this field. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-4-6.

9th race – (3) Nate the Great was a good second in his debut and should graduate from the maiden ranks. (7) Clever Thought is a firster from Pletcher who looms a key contender. (9) Justin’s Legacy missed by a neck in his debut and should not be ignored. (4) Fearless Soldier also debuts from Pletcher and should be in the picture. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-7-9.
No. Letter/Last race Today’s race Comment
(1) Musical Romance B, 1/18 7 GP Was hurt by a wide trip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Charles Town Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #3 Shenandoah Cat 7-5 J Contreras W Ho
2 #3 Posted 5-2 E T Schottroffe K Cecil
3 #2 Runaway Road 5-2 P Capuano C E Lopez
4 #8 Helluva Lady 10-1 H Laguna O Bocachica
5 #6 Jubaslilballerina 4-1 K Petty D Thorpe
6 #5 Mischievous Jesse 5-2 C G Pickett O Bocachica
7 #4 Runaldo 7-5 J C Runco A Bocachica
8 #10 Decisive Cause 3-1 M A Shanley C E Lopez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Delta Downs Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #8 He's Trouble 15-1 D C Gomez M L Baca
2 #1 Woods N Water 9-5 L Thomas T L Pompell
3 #6 Half Ours N Stormy 9-5 E Ramirez J Dominguez
4 #10 Old Homestead 4-1 B A Brinkman T L Pompell
5 #1 Flash of Genius 9-5 S H Davis V Del-Cid
6 #6 Clear Humor 5-2 K Broberg T Thornton
7 #6 Smooth Colliery 5-2 E Ramirez J Dominguez
8 #1 Screenplay 5-2 I V Gonzalez J Stokes
9 #1 Through the Cracks 5-2 C D Pomier V Del-Cid

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Fair Grounds Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #3 Reecemania 4-1 A Landry B J Hernandez, Jr.
2 #3 Cabertoss 6-1 L Wiggins A Beschizza
3 #6 Blame Day 7-5 W B Calhoun R Gutierrez
4 #7 Planters Punch 5-2 K G Bourgeois T S Albert
5 #8 G'wildcat 3-1 J M Camejo F Geroux
6 #7 Beauxs Artes 5-2 E Kenneally C J Lanerie
7 #4 Blissful 5-2 C DeVaux B J Hernandez, Jr.
8 #1 Unwanted Intruder 6-1 S Wilson E Morales

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Gulfstream Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #2 Love Appeals 5-2 C Clement J Rosario
2 #5 Examiner 9-2 A A Maragh J L Ortiz
3 #2 Mr. Cellular 8-1 C A Gonzalez A Morales
4 #7 Six Feet Apart 9-2 J Delgado E Jaramillo
5 #2 Accept the Outcome 2-1 C C Brown I Ortiz, Jr.
6 #1 C My Meister 2-1 K Danner I Ortiz, Jr.
7 #6 Economic Hangover 8-5 S A Joseph, Jr. I Ortiz, Jr.
8 #3 Laniakea Storm 9-2 J F D'Angelo I Ortiz, Jr.
9 #3 Nate the Great 4-1 S A Joseph, Jr. E J Zayas